STATSYSTEMS SPORTS STAT/SHEETS, 3/20/14
NCAA COLLEGE BASKETBALL
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
_________________________________________
***** Thursday, 3/20/14 NCAACB Knowledge *****
(ALL RESULTS ATS) - Against The Spread - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Each and every day during the 2013-14 NCAA College Basketball season we will analyze all of your daily basketball action, featuring all our Highly-Rated (Situational & Match-up) Power Trends, along with some of our Situational Analysis (Betting Systems) that pertain to some of that days match-ups.
_________________________________________
Thursday's Notebook
•Ohio State won its last four first round games, covered last three, winning by 29-29-25 points, but those were as 1-2 seeds; they’ve made Sweet 16 last four years. #6 seeds are 7-1 versus spread in first round last two years, after being 2-10 three years before that (9-11 last five years). Last year was just second time this century no #6 seed got beat in first round. Dayton is in tourney for first time since ’09, second time in decade; Buckeyes won’t play them during regular season. OSU is more experienced, teams play roughly same tempo, Flyers sub more. Buckeyes are 9-4 in last 13 games. Dayton is 3-6 versus top 50 teams.
•Wisconsin ranks #338 in time per possession out of 351 D-I basketball teams, American #339. Teams have roughly same experience level, sub the same amount, both play slow, just Wisconsin does it in a way better league. American was 3-5 in last eight games before going 3-0 in Patriot tournament. Last year was first time in seven years Ryan lost his first round game; last time he was #2 seed, Badgers covered by half-point in first round, laying 12.5 to Corpus Christi in ’07. Patriot League teams lost six of last seven in tournament, but covered four of last six in this round. #2 seeds went 2-2 versus spread in first round in each of the last six years.
•Over last 18 years, underdogs are 44-28 (61.1%) versus spread in these 5-12 first round games, with #12's 5-3 SU last two years. Cincinnati tied for AAC title but is just 5-4 in last nine games- three of those losses were Louisville/Connecticut (2). Ivy League teams split last four first round games after losing nine in row before that; Harvard upset New Mexico LY, but were getting 10.5 points- this spread is little light. Crimson lost by 5 at UConn in its only top 50 game. Harvard hasn't played in 12 days, has won eight games in row but against bad teams. Last three years, favorites of 5 or less points are 15-22 versus spread in first round games.
•Colorado rode senior G Booker to make it here after star Dinwiddie was lost for year (knee) in January; Buffaloes lost by 12 to Baylor, won by 14 versus Georgia in two biggest non-league games. Third year in row in this event for Colorado, which was 14-2 with Dinwiddie, 9-9 since. Pittsburgh won five of last seven games, losing by 3 to Virginia after beating Tar Heels in first ACC tourney. Patterson is 14-31 from arc in his last four games- Panthers struggle when he doesn't shoot well. Underdogs covered 16 of last 20 #8-9 games over last five years. Pitt had won five first round tilts in row before they lost to Wichita State 73-55 in first round LY.
•Syracuse is playing couple hours from home in Buffalo, it’s an arena, not a dome, so their home court edge is even bigger here. Orange stumbled to 2-5 finish after being 25-0 at one point. #3 seeds are 8-4 versus spread in this round last three years. Western Michigan split pair with Eastern Michigan, which is Syracuse-clone coached by former assistant coach. Broncos won 11 of last 12 games with only loss in OT; they are 1-2 versus top 100 teams, losing by 9-6 points- their best win is over New Mexico State. MAC teams covered four of last five first round games. Boeheim is 7-3 versus spread in first round games last ten years.
•BYU lost 100-96 (+9) in OT at Oregon Dec 21; Haws/Collinsworth got 41+ minutes in game, but Collinsworth blew out knee in WCC tourney, is out here, which made some say BYU shouldn't be here. Cougars won 15 of last 19 games after starting season 8-7. Oregon won eight of last nine games, getting beat by UCLA in Pac-12 tourney; Ducks are 3-0 versus WCC teams this year, with other two wins by 23-18 points- they made Sweet 16 LY, making tourney for first time under Altman. Over last five years underdogs are 15-5 versus spread in #7-10 games, with 12 SU upsets. Hard to imagine Collinsworth's injury not crippling BYU's chances.
•Over last six years, #1 seeds are 14-10 versus spread in this round-- Albany won in Dayton Tuesday night, has to play here 45 hours later, against #1 team in country- good luck. Great Danes are in tourney for 4th time; they covered two of three in this round, losing by 12 (+20.5) to Duke in LY's event. Gators won first round game last three years by 28-26-32 points; they beat Kentucky in SEC final Sunday, so quick turnaround for them, too. chances are they've been prepping for second round game, when they'll be playing Colorado-Pittsburgh winner. Albany is well-coached; they jumped out to 21-2 lead, but had trouble with quickness/shooting of Mt St Mary's, which doesn't bode well for this opponent.
•Michigan State is finally healthy, looked sharp in Big Ten tournament, where they beat Michigan in finals, avenging pair of earlier losses to the Wolverines. Spartans are 12-0 this season versus teams ranked outside top 100, with 10 of 12 wins by 14+ points. Over last eight years, #4 seeds are 20-12 versus spread in this round. Izzo won six of last seven first round games, winning last two years by 22-11 points. Delaware lost by 4 to Villanova, 5 to Notre Dame, 12 to Ohio State; they've won 19 of last 21 games, don't sub much, protect ball very well- they scored 84.5 ppg in their last four games.
•Connecticut won nine of last 12 games, is in 5th NCAA in seven year, but in for first time since Calhoun retired. Three of Huskies' last five losses are Louisville. UConn is making 38.7% of its 3's. St Joe's won nine of last 11 games, using 6-man rotation- TV timeouts are longer in NCAAs, so short rotation shouldn't matter- they sub less than any team in country, need to stay out of foul trouble. Hawks make 64.1% of foul shots, 38% of 3-pointers- they lost 77-69 to Temple, their only game versus AAC foe. Huskies' last NCAA win was '11 title game; they're 3-10 versus spread last 13 first round games, usually as a big favorite.
•Michigan won/covered four of last five first round games; they're 7-1 in last eight games overall, 19-4 in last 23. Wolverines are 4-0 this season versus teams ranked outside the top 200, with all four wins by 27+ points. Wofford won 12 of its last 14 games, but finished 3rd in weak Southern Conference; Terriers don't have a senior in their rotation. Wofford lost its high profile games this year by 21-21-20-14-15 points; they're 0-7 versus teams ranked in top 200. Over last seven years, #2 seeds are 15-13 versus spread, with three SU upsets last two years, after they were 40-0 SU in the decade before that.
•Saint Louis lost four of its last five games after being 25-2 at one point; eight of its last nine games were decided by 7 or less points. Billikens are very good at defending arc (29.1%, #3) but NC State doesn't shoot lot of 3's, making just 30.2% (#326). Wolfpack has momentum after winning play-in game Tuesday; at-large teams that won play-in games are 3-3 versus spread in next game. Billikens have edge in experience; they're 7-5 versus top 100 teams, 19-1 versus everyone else. State is 5-1 in last six games, has best player on court in Warren. If you bet every underdog in 5-12 games over last 18 years, you would be 44-28 (61.1%) versus spread.
•Summit League teams are 0-5 SU in NCAAs last five years (2-3 against spread) with four losses by 8+ points. North Dakota State won its last nine games and 23 of last 26; they've got big edge in experience here, as well as win at Notre Dame before Grant got hurt, but they also lost by 17 at Ohio State, 13 at St Mary's, 1 at home to Southern Miss. Sooners won five of last seven games; six of nine guys in their rotation are either frosh/sophs. Oklahoma plays at much faster pace; neither team subs a lot. Unlike last year, when Sooners lost last three games to end season, Oklahoma won five of its last seven games.
•Milwaukee won its last five games, winning an unusual four games in the Horizon tourney; they won eight of last nine games Aaron played, after going 1-3 during four games he was suspended for. Panthers lost 80-71 to DePaul, only Big East team they've played. Villanova is 0-4 versus spread in last four first round games, losing last two (both 8-9 games); they are 0-4 versus spread last four times they were double digit favorite in 1st round with last cover in 1996. Not fond of teams that get upset in conference tourney first round like Villanova did. Teams play roughly same tempo, Milwaukee is more experienced but Wildcats will use its bench more.
•Texas went 5-6 in last 11 games, Arizona State 2-5 in last seven, losing last three; ASU lost its last six neutral/road games, but beat Texas Tech by 14 in only game versus Big 12 opponent. Longhorns are 1-4 in last five NCAA tournament games, with all four losses by 5 or less points- they do not have senior in their rotation, are 11-2 outside Big 12. Sun Devils have big edge in experience but don't sub very much- teams play at roughly same tempo. ASU won last four first round games. Over last five years, underdogs are 15-5 versus spread in first round 7-10 games. Key to game is whether young Texas guards can neutralize ASU's PG Carson.
•Manhattan coach Masiello was Knick ballboy for Pitino, both played, coached for him at Kentucky so he knows all there is to know about the Cardinals' system, but his players aren't as good. Jaspers played a weak schedule; their 80-74 loss to George Washington was only game they've played versus top 75 team. Manhattan will do same things Louisville does, but they haven't tried to do them versus players this good. Defending champ Louisville crushed its opponent in AAC tourney last week, has chip on its shoulder now after being given 4-seed by committee. Over last eight years, favorites are 20-12 against the spread in 4-13 games.
•New Mexico State played in a horribly watered-down WAC, just a bad league, but they won it and they also split with New Mexico, winning in Pit- they also lost by hoop at Colorado State, so they were 1-2 against teams in San Diego State's league and also swept UTEP, so they've got some players Aggies have 7-5 center; their opponents shot 42.8% inside arc against them. Aztecs won six of last seven games, losing to Lobos in Mountain West tourney in Vegas; they don't shoot ball especially well, tend to drift a little against inferior opponents. Over the last eight years, favorites are 20-12 against the spread in 4-13 games.
•Situational Trends of The Day
-- FLORIDA is 2-14 ATS (-13.4 Units) after covering 2 of their last 3 against the spread over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was FLORIDA 70.1, OPPONENT 60.5.
-- SAN DIEGO ST is 16-2 UNDER (+13.8 Units) after playing 2 consecutive games as favorite this season.
The average score was SAN DIEGO ST 67.7, OPPONENT 53.4.
-- LOUISVILLE is 18-4 (+13.6 Units) against the 1rst half line after 1 or more consecutive unders over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was LOUISVILLE 38.4, OPPONENT 26.2.
-- WOFFORD is 11-0 UNDER (+11.0 Units) the 1rst half total after 2 straight games where they had 5 or less steals over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was WOFFORD 27.6, OPPONENT 23.5.
-- TAD BOYLE is 14-2 UNDER (+11.8 Units) after 2 straight games where they were called for 15 or less fouls as the coach of COLORADO.
The average score was BOYLE 66.5, OPPONENT 59.9.
•Matchup Trends of The Day
-- ST JOSEPHS is 0-9 ATS (-9.9 Units) in road games versus good defensive teams - shooting pct defense of <=42% after 15+ games over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was ST JOSEPHS 63.4, OPPONENT 72.2.
-- SAN DIEGO ST is 9-0 UNDER (+9.0 Units) versus good foul drawing teams - attempting >=25 free throws/game this season.
The average score was SAN DIEGO ST 61.1, OPPONENT 57.6.
-- OHIO ST is 1-14 against the 1rst half line (-14.4 Units) versus excellent ball handling teams - committing <=12 turnovers/game after 15+ games this season.
The average score was OHIO ST 29.5, OPPONENT 30.7.
-- SAN DIEGO ST is 9-0 UNDER (+9.0 Units) the 1rst half total versus good foul drawing teams - attempting >=25 free throws/game this season.
The average score was SAN DIEGO ST 27.6, OPPONENT 25.8.
-- MARVIN MENZIES is 19-3 UNDER (+15.7 Units) versus excellent ball handling teams - committing <=12 turnovers/game after 15+ games as the coach of NEW MEXICO ST.
The average score was MENZIES 68.9, OPPONENT 66.7.
•Situation Analysis of The Day
-- Play Against - Underdogs of +145 to +350 versus the money line (ST JOSEPHS) - a poor pressure defensive team (<=14.5 TO's) against a good ball handling team (<=14.5 TO's), in a game involving two good defensive teams (63-67 PPG) after 15+ games, after a win by 6 points or less.
(106-16 over the last 5 seasons.) (86.9%, +68.8 units. Rating = 4*)
The average money line posted in these games was: Team favored with a money line of: -270
The average score in these games was: Team 71.7, Opponent 63.5 (Average point differential = +8.2)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0, +0 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (55-6, +40.3 units).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (221-60, +76.3 units).
-- Play On - Any team (COLORADO) - an average offensive team (67-74 PPG) against an excellent defensive team (<=63 PPG), after going under the total by 42 or more points total in their last seven games, in a non-conference game between two teams from major division 1-A conferences.
(40-14 over the last 5 seasons.) (74.1%, +24.6 units. Rating = 3*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is : (36-19 over the last 5 seasons.)
The average line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 0.9
The average score in these games was: Team 67.5, Opponent 64.8 (Average point differential = +2.7)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 16 (29.6% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (5-2).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (21-8).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (91-66).
-- Play Under - Neutral court teams where the total is between 130 and 139.5 points (CONNECTICUT) - in any first round tournament game, in a game involving 2 slow-down teams (<=55 shots/game), in a game involving two average rebounding teams (+/-3 reb/game) after 15+ games.
(82-26 since 1997.) (75.9%, +53.4 units. Rating = 5*)
The average total posted in these games was: 133.4
The average score in these games was: Team 63.2, Opponent 63.2 (Total points scored = 126.3)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 58 (54.7% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (10-4).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (20-6).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (34-16).
-- Play On - An underdog versus the 1rst half line (ARIZONA ST) - a good team (60% to 80%) playing a team with a winning record, after being beaten by the spread by more than 18 points in their previous game, in a game involving two good offensive teams (74-78 PPG) after 15+ games.
(73-27 over the last 5 seasons.) (73.0%, +43.3 units. Rating = 4*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 3.3
The average first half score in these games was: Team 31.1, Opponent 31.5 (Average first half point differential = -0.4)
The situation's record this season is: (14-4).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (48-11).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (158-102).
-- Play Under - All teams where the first half total is 60.5 or less (W MICHIGAN) - in a game involving two good free throw shooting teams (69-73%), good ball handling team (<=14.5 TO's) against a poor pressure defense (<=14.5 TO's) after 15+ games.
(48-13 over the last 5 seasons.) (78.7%, +33.7 units. Rating = 4*)
The average first half total posted in these games was: 58.4
The average first half score in these games was: Team 27.2, Opponent 26.7 (Total first half points scored = 53.9)
The situation's record this season is: (3-1).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (32-5).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (81-43).
___________________________________________
NCAA COLLEGE BASKETBALL
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
_________________________________________
***** Thursday, 3/20/14 NCAACB Knowledge *****
(ALL RESULTS ATS) - Against The Spread - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Each and every day during the 2013-14 NCAA College Basketball season we will analyze all of your daily basketball action, featuring all our Highly-Rated (Situational & Match-up) Power Trends, along with some of our Situational Analysis (Betting Systems) that pertain to some of that days match-ups.
_________________________________________
Thursday's Notebook
•Ohio State won its last four first round games, covered last three, winning by 29-29-25 points, but those were as 1-2 seeds; they’ve made Sweet 16 last four years. #6 seeds are 7-1 versus spread in first round last two years, after being 2-10 three years before that (9-11 last five years). Last year was just second time this century no #6 seed got beat in first round. Dayton is in tourney for first time since ’09, second time in decade; Buckeyes won’t play them during regular season. OSU is more experienced, teams play roughly same tempo, Flyers sub more. Buckeyes are 9-4 in last 13 games. Dayton is 3-6 versus top 50 teams.
•Wisconsin ranks #338 in time per possession out of 351 D-I basketball teams, American #339. Teams have roughly same experience level, sub the same amount, both play slow, just Wisconsin does it in a way better league. American was 3-5 in last eight games before going 3-0 in Patriot tournament. Last year was first time in seven years Ryan lost his first round game; last time he was #2 seed, Badgers covered by half-point in first round, laying 12.5 to Corpus Christi in ’07. Patriot League teams lost six of last seven in tournament, but covered four of last six in this round. #2 seeds went 2-2 versus spread in first round in each of the last six years.
•Over last 18 years, underdogs are 44-28 (61.1%) versus spread in these 5-12 first round games, with #12's 5-3 SU last two years. Cincinnati tied for AAC title but is just 5-4 in last nine games- three of those losses were Louisville/Connecticut (2). Ivy League teams split last four first round games after losing nine in row before that; Harvard upset New Mexico LY, but were getting 10.5 points- this spread is little light. Crimson lost by 5 at UConn in its only top 50 game. Harvard hasn't played in 12 days, has won eight games in row but against bad teams. Last three years, favorites of 5 or less points are 15-22 versus spread in first round games.
•Colorado rode senior G Booker to make it here after star Dinwiddie was lost for year (knee) in January; Buffaloes lost by 12 to Baylor, won by 14 versus Georgia in two biggest non-league games. Third year in row in this event for Colorado, which was 14-2 with Dinwiddie, 9-9 since. Pittsburgh won five of last seven games, losing by 3 to Virginia after beating Tar Heels in first ACC tourney. Patterson is 14-31 from arc in his last four games- Panthers struggle when he doesn't shoot well. Underdogs covered 16 of last 20 #8-9 games over last five years. Pitt had won five first round tilts in row before they lost to Wichita State 73-55 in first round LY.
•Syracuse is playing couple hours from home in Buffalo, it’s an arena, not a dome, so their home court edge is even bigger here. Orange stumbled to 2-5 finish after being 25-0 at one point. #3 seeds are 8-4 versus spread in this round last three years. Western Michigan split pair with Eastern Michigan, which is Syracuse-clone coached by former assistant coach. Broncos won 11 of last 12 games with only loss in OT; they are 1-2 versus top 100 teams, losing by 9-6 points- their best win is over New Mexico State. MAC teams covered four of last five first round games. Boeheim is 7-3 versus spread in first round games last ten years.
•BYU lost 100-96 (+9) in OT at Oregon Dec 21; Haws/Collinsworth got 41+ minutes in game, but Collinsworth blew out knee in WCC tourney, is out here, which made some say BYU shouldn't be here. Cougars won 15 of last 19 games after starting season 8-7. Oregon won eight of last nine games, getting beat by UCLA in Pac-12 tourney; Ducks are 3-0 versus WCC teams this year, with other two wins by 23-18 points- they made Sweet 16 LY, making tourney for first time under Altman. Over last five years underdogs are 15-5 versus spread in #7-10 games, with 12 SU upsets. Hard to imagine Collinsworth's injury not crippling BYU's chances.
•Over last six years, #1 seeds are 14-10 versus spread in this round-- Albany won in Dayton Tuesday night, has to play here 45 hours later, against #1 team in country- good luck. Great Danes are in tourney for 4th time; they covered two of three in this round, losing by 12 (+20.5) to Duke in LY's event. Gators won first round game last three years by 28-26-32 points; they beat Kentucky in SEC final Sunday, so quick turnaround for them, too. chances are they've been prepping for second round game, when they'll be playing Colorado-Pittsburgh winner. Albany is well-coached; they jumped out to 21-2 lead, but had trouble with quickness/shooting of Mt St Mary's, which doesn't bode well for this opponent.
•Michigan State is finally healthy, looked sharp in Big Ten tournament, where they beat Michigan in finals, avenging pair of earlier losses to the Wolverines. Spartans are 12-0 this season versus teams ranked outside top 100, with 10 of 12 wins by 14+ points. Over last eight years, #4 seeds are 20-12 versus spread in this round. Izzo won six of last seven first round games, winning last two years by 22-11 points. Delaware lost by 4 to Villanova, 5 to Notre Dame, 12 to Ohio State; they've won 19 of last 21 games, don't sub much, protect ball very well- they scored 84.5 ppg in their last four games.
•Connecticut won nine of last 12 games, is in 5th NCAA in seven year, but in for first time since Calhoun retired. Three of Huskies' last five losses are Louisville. UConn is making 38.7% of its 3's. St Joe's won nine of last 11 games, using 6-man rotation- TV timeouts are longer in NCAAs, so short rotation shouldn't matter- they sub less than any team in country, need to stay out of foul trouble. Hawks make 64.1% of foul shots, 38% of 3-pointers- they lost 77-69 to Temple, their only game versus AAC foe. Huskies' last NCAA win was '11 title game; they're 3-10 versus spread last 13 first round games, usually as a big favorite.
•Michigan won/covered four of last five first round games; they're 7-1 in last eight games overall, 19-4 in last 23. Wolverines are 4-0 this season versus teams ranked outside the top 200, with all four wins by 27+ points. Wofford won 12 of its last 14 games, but finished 3rd in weak Southern Conference; Terriers don't have a senior in their rotation. Wofford lost its high profile games this year by 21-21-20-14-15 points; they're 0-7 versus teams ranked in top 200. Over last seven years, #2 seeds are 15-13 versus spread, with three SU upsets last two years, after they were 40-0 SU in the decade before that.
•Saint Louis lost four of its last five games after being 25-2 at one point; eight of its last nine games were decided by 7 or less points. Billikens are very good at defending arc (29.1%, #3) but NC State doesn't shoot lot of 3's, making just 30.2% (#326). Wolfpack has momentum after winning play-in game Tuesday; at-large teams that won play-in games are 3-3 versus spread in next game. Billikens have edge in experience; they're 7-5 versus top 100 teams, 19-1 versus everyone else. State is 5-1 in last six games, has best player on court in Warren. If you bet every underdog in 5-12 games over last 18 years, you would be 44-28 (61.1%) versus spread.
•Summit League teams are 0-5 SU in NCAAs last five years (2-3 against spread) with four losses by 8+ points. North Dakota State won its last nine games and 23 of last 26; they've got big edge in experience here, as well as win at Notre Dame before Grant got hurt, but they also lost by 17 at Ohio State, 13 at St Mary's, 1 at home to Southern Miss. Sooners won five of last seven games; six of nine guys in their rotation are either frosh/sophs. Oklahoma plays at much faster pace; neither team subs a lot. Unlike last year, when Sooners lost last three games to end season, Oklahoma won five of its last seven games.
•Milwaukee won its last five games, winning an unusual four games in the Horizon tourney; they won eight of last nine games Aaron played, after going 1-3 during four games he was suspended for. Panthers lost 80-71 to DePaul, only Big East team they've played. Villanova is 0-4 versus spread in last four first round games, losing last two (both 8-9 games); they are 0-4 versus spread last four times they were double digit favorite in 1st round with last cover in 1996. Not fond of teams that get upset in conference tourney first round like Villanova did. Teams play roughly same tempo, Milwaukee is more experienced but Wildcats will use its bench more.
•Texas went 5-6 in last 11 games, Arizona State 2-5 in last seven, losing last three; ASU lost its last six neutral/road games, but beat Texas Tech by 14 in only game versus Big 12 opponent. Longhorns are 1-4 in last five NCAA tournament games, with all four losses by 5 or less points- they do not have senior in their rotation, are 11-2 outside Big 12. Sun Devils have big edge in experience but don't sub very much- teams play at roughly same tempo. ASU won last four first round games. Over last five years, underdogs are 15-5 versus spread in first round 7-10 games. Key to game is whether young Texas guards can neutralize ASU's PG Carson.
•Manhattan coach Masiello was Knick ballboy for Pitino, both played, coached for him at Kentucky so he knows all there is to know about the Cardinals' system, but his players aren't as good. Jaspers played a weak schedule; their 80-74 loss to George Washington was only game they've played versus top 75 team. Manhattan will do same things Louisville does, but they haven't tried to do them versus players this good. Defending champ Louisville crushed its opponent in AAC tourney last week, has chip on its shoulder now after being given 4-seed by committee. Over last eight years, favorites are 20-12 against the spread in 4-13 games.
•New Mexico State played in a horribly watered-down WAC, just a bad league, but they won it and they also split with New Mexico, winning in Pit- they also lost by hoop at Colorado State, so they were 1-2 against teams in San Diego State's league and also swept UTEP, so they've got some players Aggies have 7-5 center; their opponents shot 42.8% inside arc against them. Aztecs won six of last seven games, losing to Lobos in Mountain West tourney in Vegas; they don't shoot ball especially well, tend to drift a little against inferior opponents. Over the last eight years, favorites are 20-12 against the spread in 4-13 games.
•Situational Trends of The Day
-- FLORIDA is 2-14 ATS (-13.4 Units) after covering 2 of their last 3 against the spread over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was FLORIDA 70.1, OPPONENT 60.5.
-- SAN DIEGO ST is 16-2 UNDER (+13.8 Units) after playing 2 consecutive games as favorite this season.
The average score was SAN DIEGO ST 67.7, OPPONENT 53.4.
-- LOUISVILLE is 18-4 (+13.6 Units) against the 1rst half line after 1 or more consecutive unders over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was LOUISVILLE 38.4, OPPONENT 26.2.
-- WOFFORD is 11-0 UNDER (+11.0 Units) the 1rst half total after 2 straight games where they had 5 or less steals over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was WOFFORD 27.6, OPPONENT 23.5.
-- TAD BOYLE is 14-2 UNDER (+11.8 Units) after 2 straight games where they were called for 15 or less fouls as the coach of COLORADO.
The average score was BOYLE 66.5, OPPONENT 59.9.
•Matchup Trends of The Day
-- ST JOSEPHS is 0-9 ATS (-9.9 Units) in road games versus good defensive teams - shooting pct defense of <=42% after 15+ games over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was ST JOSEPHS 63.4, OPPONENT 72.2.
-- SAN DIEGO ST is 9-0 UNDER (+9.0 Units) versus good foul drawing teams - attempting >=25 free throws/game this season.
The average score was SAN DIEGO ST 61.1, OPPONENT 57.6.
-- OHIO ST is 1-14 against the 1rst half line (-14.4 Units) versus excellent ball handling teams - committing <=12 turnovers/game after 15+ games this season.
The average score was OHIO ST 29.5, OPPONENT 30.7.
-- SAN DIEGO ST is 9-0 UNDER (+9.0 Units) the 1rst half total versus good foul drawing teams - attempting >=25 free throws/game this season.
The average score was SAN DIEGO ST 27.6, OPPONENT 25.8.
-- MARVIN MENZIES is 19-3 UNDER (+15.7 Units) versus excellent ball handling teams - committing <=12 turnovers/game after 15+ games as the coach of NEW MEXICO ST.
The average score was MENZIES 68.9, OPPONENT 66.7.
•Situation Analysis of The Day
-- Play Against - Underdogs of +145 to +350 versus the money line (ST JOSEPHS) - a poor pressure defensive team (<=14.5 TO's) against a good ball handling team (<=14.5 TO's), in a game involving two good defensive teams (63-67 PPG) after 15+ games, after a win by 6 points or less.
(106-16 over the last 5 seasons.) (86.9%, +68.8 units. Rating = 4*)
The average money line posted in these games was: Team favored with a money line of: -270
The average score in these games was: Team 71.7, Opponent 63.5 (Average point differential = +8.2)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0, +0 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (55-6, +40.3 units).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (221-60, +76.3 units).
-- Play On - Any team (COLORADO) - an average offensive team (67-74 PPG) against an excellent defensive team (<=63 PPG), after going under the total by 42 or more points total in their last seven games, in a non-conference game between two teams from major division 1-A conferences.
(40-14 over the last 5 seasons.) (74.1%, +24.6 units. Rating = 3*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is : (36-19 over the last 5 seasons.)
The average line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 0.9
The average score in these games was: Team 67.5, Opponent 64.8 (Average point differential = +2.7)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 16 (29.6% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (5-2).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (21-8).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (91-66).
-- Play Under - Neutral court teams where the total is between 130 and 139.5 points (CONNECTICUT) - in any first round tournament game, in a game involving 2 slow-down teams (<=55 shots/game), in a game involving two average rebounding teams (+/-3 reb/game) after 15+ games.
(82-26 since 1997.) (75.9%, +53.4 units. Rating = 5*)
The average total posted in these games was: 133.4
The average score in these games was: Team 63.2, Opponent 63.2 (Total points scored = 126.3)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 58 (54.7% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (10-4).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (20-6).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (34-16).
-- Play On - An underdog versus the 1rst half line (ARIZONA ST) - a good team (60% to 80%) playing a team with a winning record, after being beaten by the spread by more than 18 points in their previous game, in a game involving two good offensive teams (74-78 PPG) after 15+ games.
(73-27 over the last 5 seasons.) (73.0%, +43.3 units. Rating = 4*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 3.3
The average first half score in these games was: Team 31.1, Opponent 31.5 (Average first half point differential = -0.4)
The situation's record this season is: (14-4).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (48-11).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (158-102).
-- Play Under - All teams where the first half total is 60.5 or less (W MICHIGAN) - in a game involving two good free throw shooting teams (69-73%), good ball handling team (<=14.5 TO's) against a poor pressure defense (<=14.5 TO's) after 15+ games.
(48-13 over the last 5 seasons.) (78.7%, +33.7 units. Rating = 4*)
The average first half total posted in these games was: 58.4
The average first half score in these games was: Team 27.2, Opponent 26.7 (Total first half points scored = 53.9)
The situation's record this season is: (3-1).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (32-5).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (81-43).
___________________________________________
STATSYSTEMS SPORTS STAT/SHEETS, 3/20/14
NATIONAL BASKETBALL ASSOCIATION
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
_________________________________________
***** Thursday, 3/20/14 NBA Information *****
(ALL RESULTS ATS) - Against The Spread - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Each and every day during the 2013-14 National Basketball Association season we will analyze all of your daily basketball action, featuring all our Highly-Rated (Situational & Match-up) Power Trends, along with some of our Situational Analysis (Betting Systems) that pertain to some of that days match-ups.
_______________________________________________
Betting Notes - Thursday
•Hot Teams
-- Thunder won three of their last four games.
-- Timberwolves won seven of their last ten games.
-- Wizards won four of their last six road games.
-- Golden State won seven of its last nine games.
•Cold Teams
-- Cleveland lost six of its last eight games.
-- Houston lost three of its last four games.
-- Trailblazers lost five of their last seven games.
-- Bucks lost eight of last nine games, covered five of last seven.
•Totals
-- Four of last five Thunder games stayed under total.
-- Last five Minnesota-Houston games stayed under.
-- Five of last six Washington road games went over.
-- Under is 7-2-1 in last ten Golden State games.
•Series Records
-- Cavaliers won three of last four games with Oklahoma City.
-- Rockets won four of last five games with Minnesota.
-- Wizards won four of last five games with Portland.
-- Bucks won seven of last nine games with Golden State.
Hoop Trends - Thursday
•PORTLAND is 1-11 ATS (-11.1 Units) after scoring 110 points or more 2 straight games this season.
The average score was PORTLAND 106.1, OPPONENT 108.2.
•GOLDEN STATE is 11-1 UNDER (+9.9 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record - 2nd half of the season this season.
The average score was GOLDEN STATE 101.5, OPPONENT 91.9.
•PORTLAND is 17-39 (-25.9 Units) against the 1rst half line after allowing 105 points or more over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was PORTLAND 48.9, OPPONENT 52.3.
•MILWAUKEE is 27-9 UNDER (+17.1 Units) the 1rst half total versus good 3 point shooting teams - making >=36% of their attempts - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was MILWAUKEE 48.4, OPPONENT 51.1.
•KEVIN MCHALE is 17-3 ATS (+13.7 Units) in home games after failing to cover 4 or 5 of their last 6 against the spread as the coach of HOUSTON.
The average score was MCHALE 109.0, OPPONENT 94.5.
Situation Analysis of The Day
•Play On - Favorites versus the money line (PORTLAND) - a good team (+3 to +7 PPG differential) against an average team (+/- 3 PPG differential), after allowing 100 points or more 4 straight games.
(62-12 since 1996.) (83.8%, +39.7 units. Rating = 3*)
The average money line posted in these games was: Team favored with a money line of: -185.8
The average score in these games was: Team 108.8, Opponent 98.5 (Average point differential = +10.4)
The situation's record this season is: (13-4, +6.5 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (18-5, +8.2 units).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (33-6, +21.9 units).
-- Play On - Home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (PORTLAND) - in a game involving two average shooting teams (43.5-45.5%) after 42+ games, good rebounding team (+3 to +5.5 Reb/G) versus an average rebounding team (+/-3 Reb/G) after 42+ games.
(30-8 since 1996.) (78.9%, +21.2 units. Rating = 3*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is : (34-4)
The average line posted in these games was: Team favored by 6.8
The average score in these games was: Team 110.2, Opponent 96.8 (Average point differential = +13.3)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 17 (45.9% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (2-1).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (7-2).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (10-3).
-- Play Under - All teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 (WASHINGTON) - with a winning record on the season playing another winning team, after going over the total by 48 or more points total in their last ten games, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a winning team.
(47-16 over the last 5 seasons.) (74.6%, +29.4 units. Rating = 3*)
The average total posted in these games was: 204.7
The average score in these games was: Team 98.1, Opponent 100.5 (Total points scored = 198.6)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 35 (58.3% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (12-4).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (31-11).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (111-67).
__________________________________________
NATIONAL BASKETBALL ASSOCIATION
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
_________________________________________
***** Thursday, 3/20/14 NBA Information *****
(ALL RESULTS ATS) - Against The Spread - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Each and every day during the 2013-14 National Basketball Association season we will analyze all of your daily basketball action, featuring all our Highly-Rated (Situational & Match-up) Power Trends, along with some of our Situational Analysis (Betting Systems) that pertain to some of that days match-ups.
_______________________________________________
Betting Notes - Thursday
•Hot Teams
-- Thunder won three of their last four games.
-- Timberwolves won seven of their last ten games.
-- Wizards won four of their last six road games.
-- Golden State won seven of its last nine games.
•Cold Teams
-- Cleveland lost six of its last eight games.
-- Houston lost three of its last four games.
-- Trailblazers lost five of their last seven games.
-- Bucks lost eight of last nine games, covered five of last seven.
•Totals
-- Four of last five Thunder games stayed under total.
-- Last five Minnesota-Houston games stayed under.
-- Five of last six Washington road games went over.
-- Under is 7-2-1 in last ten Golden State games.
•Series Records
-- Cavaliers won three of last four games with Oklahoma City.
-- Rockets won four of last five games with Minnesota.
-- Wizards won four of last five games with Portland.
-- Bucks won seven of last nine games with Golden State.
Hoop Trends - Thursday
•PORTLAND is 1-11 ATS (-11.1 Units) after scoring 110 points or more 2 straight games this season.
The average score was PORTLAND 106.1, OPPONENT 108.2.
•GOLDEN STATE is 11-1 UNDER (+9.9 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record - 2nd half of the season this season.
The average score was GOLDEN STATE 101.5, OPPONENT 91.9.
•PORTLAND is 17-39 (-25.9 Units) against the 1rst half line after allowing 105 points or more over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was PORTLAND 48.9, OPPONENT 52.3.
•MILWAUKEE is 27-9 UNDER (+17.1 Units) the 1rst half total versus good 3 point shooting teams - making >=36% of their attempts - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was MILWAUKEE 48.4, OPPONENT 51.1.
•KEVIN MCHALE is 17-3 ATS (+13.7 Units) in home games after failing to cover 4 or 5 of their last 6 against the spread as the coach of HOUSTON.
The average score was MCHALE 109.0, OPPONENT 94.5.
Situation Analysis of The Day
•Play On - Favorites versus the money line (PORTLAND) - a good team (+3 to +7 PPG differential) against an average team (+/- 3 PPG differential), after allowing 100 points or more 4 straight games.
(62-12 since 1996.) (83.8%, +39.7 units. Rating = 3*)
The average money line posted in these games was: Team favored with a money line of: -185.8
The average score in these games was: Team 108.8, Opponent 98.5 (Average point differential = +10.4)
The situation's record this season is: (13-4, +6.5 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (18-5, +8.2 units).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (33-6, +21.9 units).
-- Play On - Home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (PORTLAND) - in a game involving two average shooting teams (43.5-45.5%) after 42+ games, good rebounding team (+3 to +5.5 Reb/G) versus an average rebounding team (+/-3 Reb/G) after 42+ games.
(30-8 since 1996.) (78.9%, +21.2 units. Rating = 3*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is : (34-4)
The average line posted in these games was: Team favored by 6.8
The average score in these games was: Team 110.2, Opponent 96.8 (Average point differential = +13.3)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 17 (45.9% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (2-1).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (7-2).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (10-3).
-- Play Under - All teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 (WASHINGTON) - with a winning record on the season playing another winning team, after going over the total by 48 or more points total in their last ten games, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a winning team.
(47-16 over the last 5 seasons.) (74.6%, +29.4 units. Rating = 3*)
The average total posted in these games was: 204.7
The average score in these games was: Team 98.1, Opponent 100.5 (Total points scored = 198.6)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 35 (58.3% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (12-4).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (31-11).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (111-67).
__________________________________________
NBA
Hot teams
-- Thunder won three of their last four games.
-- Timberwolves won seven of their last ten games.
-- Wizards won four of their last six road games.
-- Golden State won seven of its last nine games.
Cold Teams
-- Cleveland lost six of its last eight games.
-- Houston lost three of its last four games.
-- Trailblazers lost five of their last seven games.
-- Bucks lost eight of last nine games, covered five of last seven.
Series records
-- Cavaliers won three of last four games with Oklahoma City.
-- Rockets won four of last five games with Minnesota.
-- Wizards won four of last five games with Portland.
-- Bucks won seven of last nine games with Golden State.
Totals
-- Four of last five Thunder games stayed under total.
-- Last five Minnesota-Houston games stayed under.
-- Five of last six Washington road games went over.
-- Under is 7-2-1 in last ten Golden State games.
Hot teams
-- Thunder won three of their last four games.
-- Timberwolves won seven of their last ten games.
-- Wizards won four of their last six road games.
-- Golden State won seven of its last nine games.
Cold Teams
-- Cleveland lost six of its last eight games.
-- Houston lost three of its last four games.
-- Trailblazers lost five of their last seven games.
-- Bucks lost eight of last nine games, covered five of last seven.
Series records
-- Cavaliers won three of last four games with Oklahoma City.
-- Rockets won four of last five games with Minnesota.
-- Wizards won four of last five games with Portland.
-- Bucks won seven of last nine games with Golden State.
Totals
-- Four of last five Thunder games stayed under total.
-- Last five Minnesota-Houston games stayed under.
-- Five of last six Washington road games went over.
-- Under is 7-2-1 in last ten Golden State games.
NHL
Hot teams
-- Philadelphia won six of its last eight games.
-- Montreal won its last three games, allowing seven goals. Blue Jackets won three of their last four road games.
-- Tampa Bay won its last four games, scoring 17 goals.
-- Detroit won its last three home games, allowing total of seven goals. Penguins won four of their last six games overall.
-- Edmonton won three of its last four home games.
-- Coyotes won six of their last eight games.
-- Washington won its last three games, allowing seven goals.
-- Sharks won six of their last seven games.
Cold teams
-- New Jersey lost its last three games, outscored 12-5. Minnesota lost five of its last seven games.
-- Dallas Stars lost last three games, allowing 16 goals.
-- Senators lost six of their last seven games.
-- Sabres lost last seven games, scoring total of six goals.
-- Panthers lost four of their last six games.
-- Los Angeles lost its last three games, scoring six goals.
-- Ducks lost five of their last seven games.
Totals
-- Eight of last ten Devil games went over total.
-- Six of last seven Dallas games went over total.
-- Four of last five Columbus games stayed under.
-- Five of last six Tampa Bay games went over.
-- 10 of last 13 Pittsburgh-Detroit games stayed under.
-- Under is 7-1-1 in last nine Buffalo games.
-- Over is 19-12-3 in Phoenix home games this season.
-- Five of last seven Washington games stayed under.
-- Under is 19-12-2 in San Jose home games this season.
Series records
-- Wild won its last three games with New Jersey.
-- Flyers won six of their last seven games with Dallas.
-- Canadiens are 2-0 vs Columbus this season: 5-3/3-2so.
-- Lightning won three of last four games with Ottawa.
-- Penguins won five of last six games with Detroit.
-- Sabres won three of last four games with Edmonton.
-- Coyotes won their last three games with Florida.
-- Kings won last two games with Washington, 4-1/5-2.
-- Sharks won four of their last five games with Anaheim.
Hot teams
-- Philadelphia won six of its last eight games.
-- Montreal won its last three games, allowing seven goals. Blue Jackets won three of their last four road games.
-- Tampa Bay won its last four games, scoring 17 goals.
-- Detroit won its last three home games, allowing total of seven goals. Penguins won four of their last six games overall.
-- Edmonton won three of its last four home games.
-- Coyotes won six of their last eight games.
-- Washington won its last three games, allowing seven goals.
-- Sharks won six of their last seven games.
Cold teams
-- New Jersey lost its last three games, outscored 12-5. Minnesota lost five of its last seven games.
-- Dallas Stars lost last three games, allowing 16 goals.
-- Senators lost six of their last seven games.
-- Sabres lost last seven games, scoring total of six goals.
-- Panthers lost four of their last six games.
-- Los Angeles lost its last three games, scoring six goals.
-- Ducks lost five of their last seven games.
Totals
-- Eight of last ten Devil games went over total.
-- Six of last seven Dallas games went over total.
-- Four of last five Columbus games stayed under.
-- Five of last six Tampa Bay games went over.
-- 10 of last 13 Pittsburgh-Detroit games stayed under.
-- Under is 7-1-1 in last nine Buffalo games.
-- Over is 19-12-3 in Phoenix home games this season.
-- Five of last seven Washington games stayed under.
-- Under is 19-12-2 in San Jose home games this season.
Series records
-- Wild won its last three games with New Jersey.
-- Flyers won six of their last seven games with Dallas.
-- Canadiens are 2-0 vs Columbus this season: 5-3/3-2so.
-- Lightning won three of last four games with Ottawa.
-- Penguins won five of last six games with Detroit.
-- Sabres won three of last four games with Edmonton.
-- Coyotes won their last three games with Florida.
-- Kings won last two games with Washington, 4-1/5-2.
-- Sharks won four of their last five games with Anaheim.
NCAA Basketball Picks
North Dakota State vs. Oklahoma
The No. 12 seeded Bison come into their game against No. 5 seed Oklahoma with a 10-3 ATS record in their last 13 neutral site games. North Dakota State is the pick (+4) according to Dunkel, which has the Sooners favored by only 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: North Dakota State (+4). Here are all of today's games and the first round of the NCAA Tournament.
North Dakota State vs. Oklahoma
The No. 12 seeded Bison come into their game against No. 5 seed Oklahoma with a 10-3 ATS record in their last 13 neutral site games. North Dakota State is the pick (+4) according to Dunkel, which has the Sooners favored by only 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: North Dakota State (+4). Here are all of today's games and the first round of the NCAA Tournament.
| THURSDAY, MARCH 20 Time Posted: 8:30 a.m. EST (3/18) |
| Game 709-710: Dayton vs. Ohio State (12:15 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Dayton 63.934; Ohio State 67.658 Dunkel Line: Ohio State by 3 1/2; 137 Vegas Line: Ohio State by 6; 131 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Dayton (+6); Over |
| Game 711-712: Western Michigan vs. Syracuse (2:45 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Western Michigan 55.991; Syracuse 70.805 Dunkel Line: Syracuse by 15; 121 Vegas Line: Syracuse by 12 1/2; 128 Dunkel Pick: Syracuse (-12 1/2); Under |
| Game 713-714: St. Joseph's vs. Connecticut (6:55 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: St. Joseph's 65.307; Connecticut 66.702 Dunkel Line: Connecticut by 1 1/2; 125 Vegas Line: Connecticut by 4 1/2; 130 Dunkel Pick: St. Joseph's (+4 1/2); Under |
| Game 715-716: WI-Milwaukee vs. Villanova (9:25 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: WI-Milwaukee 50.016; Villanova 73.492 Dunkel Line: Villanova by 23 1/2; 144 Vegas Line: Villanova by 16; 140 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Villanova (-16); Over |
| Game 717-718: Albany vs. Florida (4:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Albany 55.905; Florida 75.847 Dunkel Line: Florida by 20; 118 Vegas Line: Florida by 22; 121 Dunkel Pick: Albany (+22); Under |
| Game 719-720: Pittsburgh vs. Colorado (1:40 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh 69.871; Colorado 61.781 Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 8; 133 Vegas Line: Pittsburgh by 5 1/2; 128 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-5 1/2); Over |
| Game 721-722: NC State vs. St. Louis (7:20 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: NC State 62.964; St. Louis 67.631 Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 4 1/2; 128 Vegas Line: St. Louis by 2 1/2; 131 1/2 Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-2 1/2); Under |
| Game 723-724: Manhattan vs. Louisville (9:50 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Manhattan 63.468; Louisville 76.569 Dunkel Line: Louisville by 13; 139 Vegas Line: Louisville by 16; 143 Dunkel Pick: Manhattan (+16); Under |
| Game 725-726: BYU vs. Oregon (3:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: BYU 63.606; Oregon 71.611 Dunkel Line: Oregon by 8; 162 Vegas Line: Oregon by 5; 158 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Oregon (-5); Over |
| Game 727-728: American vs. Wisconsin (12:40 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: American 52.300; Wisconsin 72.799 Dunkel Line: Wisconsin by 20 1/2; 128 Vegas Line: Wisconsin by 13; 122 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Wisconsin (-13); Over |
| Game 729-730: Arizona State vs. Texas (9:40 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Arizona State 67.413; Texas 64.675 Dunkel Line: Arizona State by 3; 147 Vegas Line: Texas by 2; 141 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Arizona State (+2); Over |
| Game 731-732: Wofford vs. Michigan (7:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Wofford 54.631; Michigan 68.193 Dunkel Line: Michigan by 13 1/2; 119 Vegas Line: Michigan by 16; 126 Dunkel Pick: Wofford (+16); Under |
| Game 733-734: Harvard vs. Cincinnati (2:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Harvard 65.925; Cincinnati 66.883 Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 1; 117 Vegas Line: Cincinnati by 3; 122 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Harvard (+3); Under |
| Game 735-736: Delaware vs. Michigan State (4:40 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Delaware 56.733; Michigan State 68.342 Dunkel Line: Michigan State by 11 1/2; 142 Vegas Line: Michigan State by 14; 149 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Delaware (+14); Under |
| Game 737-738: North Dakota State vs. Oklahoma (7:27 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: North Dakota State 66.353; Oklahoma 67.846 Dunkel Line: Oklahoma by 1 1/2; 153 Vegas Line: Oklahoma by 4; 150 Dunkel Pick: North Dakota State (+4); Over |
| Game 739-740: New Mexico State vs. San Diego State (9:57 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: New Mexico State 61.174; San Diego State 65.509 Dunkel Line: San Diego State by 4 1/2; 134 Vegas Line: San Diego State by 7 1/2; 128 Dunkel Pick: New Mexico State (+7 1/2); Over |
NCAAB
Thursday, March 20
Thursday's NCAA games
afternoon games
Ohio State won its last four first round games, covered last three, winning by 29-29-25 points, but those were as 1-2 seeds; they’ve made Sweet 16 last four years. #6 seeds are 7-1 vs spread in first round last two years, after being 2-10 three years before that (9-11 last five years). Last year was just second time this century no #6 seed got beat in first round. Dayton is in tourney for first time since ’09, second time in decade; Buckeyes won’t play them during regular season. OSU is more experienced, teams play roughly same tempo, Flyers sub more. Buckeyes are 9-4 in last 13 games. Dayton is 3-6 vs top 50 teams.
There are 351 D-I basketball teams; Wisconsin ranks #338 in time per possession, American #339. Teams have roughly same experience level, sub the same amount, both play slow, just Wisconsin does it in a way better league. American was 3-5 in last eight games before going 3-0 in Patriot tournament. Last year was first time in seven years Ryan lost his first round game; last time he was #2 seed, Badgers covered by half-point in first round, laying 12.5 to Corpus Christi in ’07. Patriot League teams lost six of last seven in tournament, but covered four of last six in this round. #2 seeds went 2-2 vs spread in first round in each of the last six years.
Over last 18 years, underdogs are 44-28 (61.1%) vs spread in these 5-12 first round games, with #12's 5-3 SU last two years. Cincinnati tied for AAC title but is just 5-4 in last nine games- three of those losses were Louisville/UConn (2). Ivy League teams split last four first round games after losing nine in row before that; Harvard upset New Mexico LY, but were getting 10.5 points- this spread is little light, no? Crimson lost by 5 at UConn in its only top 50 game. Harvard hasn't played in 12 days, has won eight games in row but against bad teams. Last three years, favorites of 5 or less points are 15-22 vs spread in first round games.
Colorado rode senior G Booker to make it here after star Dinwiddie was lost for year (knee) in January; Buffaloes lost by 12 to Baylor, won by 14 vs Georgia in two biggest non-league games. Third year in row in this event for Colorado, which was 14-2 with Dinwiddie, 9-9 since. Pitt won five of last seven games, losing by 3 to Virginia after beating Tar Heels in first ACC tourney. Patterson is 14-31 from arc in his last four games- Panthers struggle when he doesn't shoot well. Underdogs covered 16 of last 20 #8-9 games over last five years. Pitt had won five first round tilts in row before they lost to Wichita State 73-55 in first round LY.
Not only is Syracuse playing couple hours from home in Buffalo, its an arena, not a dome, so their home court edge is even bigger here. Orange stumbled to 2-5 finish after being 25-0 at one point. #3 seeds are 8-4 vs spread in this round last three years. Western Michigan split pair with Eastern Michigan, which is Syracuse-clone coached by former assistant coach. Broncos won 11 of last 12 games with only loss in OT; they are 1-2 vs top 100 teams, losing by 9-6 points- their best win is over New Mexico State. MAC teams covered four of last five first round games. Boeheim is 7-3 vs spread in first round games last ten years.
BYU lost 100-96 (+9) in OT at Oregon Dec 21; Haws/Collinsworth got 41+ minutes in game, but Collinsworth blew out knee in WCC tourney, is out here, which made some say BYU shouldn't be here. Cougars won 15 of last 19 games after starting season 8-7. Oregon won eight of last nine games, getting beat by UCLA in Pac-12 tourney; Ducks are 3-0 vs WCC teams this year, with other two wins by 23-18 points- they made Sweet 16 LY, making tourney for first time under Altman. Over last five years,.underdogs are 15-5 vs spread in #7-10 games, with 12 SU upsets. Hard to imagine Collinsworth's injury not crippling BYU's chances.
Over last six years, #1 seeds are 14-10 vs spread in this round-- Albany won in Dayton Tuesday night, has to play here 45 hours later, against #1 team in country- good luck. Great Danes are in tourney for 4th time; they covered two of three in this round, losing by 12 (+20.5) to Duke in LY's event. Gators won first round game last three years by 28-26-32 points; they beat Kentucky in SEC final Sunday, so quick turnaround for them, too. chances are they've been prepping for second round game, when they'll be playing Colorado-Pitt winner. Albany is well-coached; they jumped out to 21-2 lead, but had trouble with quickness/shooting of Mt St Mary's, which doesn't bode well for this opponent.
Michigan State is finally healthy, looked sharp in Big Dozen tourney, where they beat Michigan in finals, avenging pair of earlier losses to the Wolverines. Spartans are 12-0 this season vs teams ranked outside top 100, with 10 of 12 wins by 14+ points. Over last eight years, #4 seeds are 20-12 vs spread in this round. Izzo won six of last seven first round games, winning last two years by 22-11 points. Delaware lost by 4 to Villanova, 5 to Notre Dame, 12 to Ohio State; they've won 19 of last 21 games, don't sub much, protect ball very well- they scored 84.5 ppg in their last four games.
Evening games
UConn won nine of last 12 games, is in 5th NCAA in seven year, but in for first time since Calhoun retired. Three of Huskies' last five losses are Louisville. UConn is making 38.7% of its 3's. St Joe's won nine of last 11 games, using 6-man rotation- TV timeouts are longer in NCAAs, so short rotation shouldn't matter- they sub less than any team in country, need to stay out of foul trouble. Hawks make 64.1% of foul shots, 38% of 3-pointers- they lost 77-69 to Temple, their only game vs AAC foe. Huskies' last NCAA win was '11 title game; they're 3-10 vs spread last 13 first round games, usually as a big favorite.
Michigan won/covered four of last five first round games; they're 7-1 in last eight games overall, 19-4 in last 23. Wolverines are 4-0 this season vs teams ranked outside the top 200, with all four wins by 27+ points. Wofford won 12 of its last 14 games, but finished T3 in weak Southern Conference; Terriers don't have a senior in their rotation. Wofford lost its high profile games this year by 21-21-20-14-15 points; they're 0-7 vs teams ranked in top 200. Over last seven years, #2 seeds are 15-13 vs spread, with three SU upsets last two years, after they were 40-0 SU in the decade before that.
If you bet every underdog in 5-12 games over last 18 years, you would be 44-28 (61.1%) vs spread. Saint Louis lost four of its last five games after being 25-2 at one point; eight of its last nine games were decided by 7 or less points. Billikens are very good at defending arc (29.1%, #3) but NC State doesn't shoot lot of 3's, mkaing just 30.2% (#326). Wolfpack has momentum after winning play-in game Tuesday; at-large teams that won play-in games are 3-3 vs spread in next game. Billikens have edge in experience; they're 7-5 vs top 100 teams, 19-1 vs everyone else. State is 5-1 in last six games, has best player on court in Warren.
Summit League teams are 0-5 SU in NCAAs last five years (2-3 against spread) with four losses by 8+ points. North Dakota State won its last nine games and 23 of last 26; they've got big edge in experience here, as well as win at Notre Dame before Grant got hurt, but they also lost by 17 at Ohio State, 13 at St Mary's, 1 at home to Southern Miss. Sooners won five of last seven games; six of nine guys in their rotiation are either frosh/sophs. Oklahoma plays at much faster pace; neither team subs a lot. Unlike last year, when Sooners lost last three games to end season, Oklahoma won five of its last seven games.
Milwaukee won its last five games, winning an unusual four games in the Horizon tourney; they won eight of last nine games Aaron played, after going 1-3 during four games he was suspended for. Panthers lost 80-71 to DePaul, only Big East team they've played. Villanova is 0-4 vs spread in last four first round games, losing last two (both 8-9 games); they are 0-4 vs spread last four times they were double digit favorite in 1st round with last cover in 1996. Not fond of teams that get upset in conference tourney first round like Villanova did. Teams play roughly same tempo, Milwaukee is more experienced but Wildcats will use its bench more.
Texas went 5-6 in last 11 games, Arizona State 2-5 in last seven, losing last three; ASU lost its last six neutral/road games, but beat Texas Tech by 14 in only game vs Big X opponent. Longhorns are 1-4 in last five NCAA tourney games, with all four losses hy 5 or less points- they do not have senior in their rotation, are 11-2 outside Big X. Sun Devils have big edge in experience but don't sub very much- teams play at roughly same tempo. ASU won last four first round games. Over last five years, underdogs are 15-5 vs spread in first round 7-10 games. Key to game is whether young Texas guards can neutralize ASU's PG Carson.
Manhattan coach Masiello was Knick ballboy for Pitino, both played, coached for him at Kentucky so he knows all there is to know about the Cardinals' system, but his players aren't as good. Jaspers played a weak schedule; their 80-74 loss to George Washington was only game they've played vs top 75 team. Manhattan will do same things Louisville does, but they haven't tried to do them vs players this good. Defending champ Lousiville crushed its opponent in AAC tourney last week, has chip on its shoulder now after being given 4-seed by committee. Over last eight years, favorites are 20-12 against the spread in 4-13 games.
New Mexico State played in a horribly watered-down WAC, just a bad league, but they won it and they also split with New Mexico, winning in Pit- they also lost by hoop at Colorado State, so they were 1-2 against teams in San Diego State's league and also swept UTEP, so they've got some players Aggies have 7-5 center; their opponents shot 42.8% inside arc against them. Aztecs won six of last seven games, losing to Lobos in Mountain West tourney in Vegas; they don't shoot ball especially well, tend to drift a little against inferior opponents. Over the last eight years, favorites are 20-12 against the spread in 4-13 games.
Thursday, March 20
Thursday's NCAA games
afternoon games
Ohio State won its last four first round games, covered last three, winning by 29-29-25 points, but those were as 1-2 seeds; they’ve made Sweet 16 last four years. #6 seeds are 7-1 vs spread in first round last two years, after being 2-10 three years before that (9-11 last five years). Last year was just second time this century no #6 seed got beat in first round. Dayton is in tourney for first time since ’09, second time in decade; Buckeyes won’t play them during regular season. OSU is more experienced, teams play roughly same tempo, Flyers sub more. Buckeyes are 9-4 in last 13 games. Dayton is 3-6 vs top 50 teams.
There are 351 D-I basketball teams; Wisconsin ranks #338 in time per possession, American #339. Teams have roughly same experience level, sub the same amount, both play slow, just Wisconsin does it in a way better league. American was 3-5 in last eight games before going 3-0 in Patriot tournament. Last year was first time in seven years Ryan lost his first round game; last time he was #2 seed, Badgers covered by half-point in first round, laying 12.5 to Corpus Christi in ’07. Patriot League teams lost six of last seven in tournament, but covered four of last six in this round. #2 seeds went 2-2 vs spread in first round in each of the last six years.
Over last 18 years, underdogs are 44-28 (61.1%) vs spread in these 5-12 first round games, with #12's 5-3 SU last two years. Cincinnati tied for AAC title but is just 5-4 in last nine games- three of those losses were Louisville/UConn (2). Ivy League teams split last four first round games after losing nine in row before that; Harvard upset New Mexico LY, but were getting 10.5 points- this spread is little light, no? Crimson lost by 5 at UConn in its only top 50 game. Harvard hasn't played in 12 days, has won eight games in row but against bad teams. Last three years, favorites of 5 or less points are 15-22 vs spread in first round games.
Colorado rode senior G Booker to make it here after star Dinwiddie was lost for year (knee) in January; Buffaloes lost by 12 to Baylor, won by 14 vs Georgia in two biggest non-league games. Third year in row in this event for Colorado, which was 14-2 with Dinwiddie, 9-9 since. Pitt won five of last seven games, losing by 3 to Virginia after beating Tar Heels in first ACC tourney. Patterson is 14-31 from arc in his last four games- Panthers struggle when he doesn't shoot well. Underdogs covered 16 of last 20 #8-9 games over last five years. Pitt had won five first round tilts in row before they lost to Wichita State 73-55 in first round LY.
Not only is Syracuse playing couple hours from home in Buffalo, its an arena, not a dome, so their home court edge is even bigger here. Orange stumbled to 2-5 finish after being 25-0 at one point. #3 seeds are 8-4 vs spread in this round last three years. Western Michigan split pair with Eastern Michigan, which is Syracuse-clone coached by former assistant coach. Broncos won 11 of last 12 games with only loss in OT; they are 1-2 vs top 100 teams, losing by 9-6 points- their best win is over New Mexico State. MAC teams covered four of last five first round games. Boeheim is 7-3 vs spread in first round games last ten years.
BYU lost 100-96 (+9) in OT at Oregon Dec 21; Haws/Collinsworth got 41+ minutes in game, but Collinsworth blew out knee in WCC tourney, is out here, which made some say BYU shouldn't be here. Cougars won 15 of last 19 games after starting season 8-7. Oregon won eight of last nine games, getting beat by UCLA in Pac-12 tourney; Ducks are 3-0 vs WCC teams this year, with other two wins by 23-18 points- they made Sweet 16 LY, making tourney for first time under Altman. Over last five years,.underdogs are 15-5 vs spread in #7-10 games, with 12 SU upsets. Hard to imagine Collinsworth's injury not crippling BYU's chances.
Over last six years, #1 seeds are 14-10 vs spread in this round-- Albany won in Dayton Tuesday night, has to play here 45 hours later, against #1 team in country- good luck. Great Danes are in tourney for 4th time; they covered two of three in this round, losing by 12 (+20.5) to Duke in LY's event. Gators won first round game last three years by 28-26-32 points; they beat Kentucky in SEC final Sunday, so quick turnaround for them, too. chances are they've been prepping for second round game, when they'll be playing Colorado-Pitt winner. Albany is well-coached; they jumped out to 21-2 lead, but had trouble with quickness/shooting of Mt St Mary's, which doesn't bode well for this opponent.
Michigan State is finally healthy, looked sharp in Big Dozen tourney, where they beat Michigan in finals, avenging pair of earlier losses to the Wolverines. Spartans are 12-0 this season vs teams ranked outside top 100, with 10 of 12 wins by 14+ points. Over last eight years, #4 seeds are 20-12 vs spread in this round. Izzo won six of last seven first round games, winning last two years by 22-11 points. Delaware lost by 4 to Villanova, 5 to Notre Dame, 12 to Ohio State; they've won 19 of last 21 games, don't sub much, protect ball very well- they scored 84.5 ppg in their last four games.
Evening games
UConn won nine of last 12 games, is in 5th NCAA in seven year, but in for first time since Calhoun retired. Three of Huskies' last five losses are Louisville. UConn is making 38.7% of its 3's. St Joe's won nine of last 11 games, using 6-man rotation- TV timeouts are longer in NCAAs, so short rotation shouldn't matter- they sub less than any team in country, need to stay out of foul trouble. Hawks make 64.1% of foul shots, 38% of 3-pointers- they lost 77-69 to Temple, their only game vs AAC foe. Huskies' last NCAA win was '11 title game; they're 3-10 vs spread last 13 first round games, usually as a big favorite.
Michigan won/covered four of last five first round games; they're 7-1 in last eight games overall, 19-4 in last 23. Wolverines are 4-0 this season vs teams ranked outside the top 200, with all four wins by 27+ points. Wofford won 12 of its last 14 games, but finished T3 in weak Southern Conference; Terriers don't have a senior in their rotation. Wofford lost its high profile games this year by 21-21-20-14-15 points; they're 0-7 vs teams ranked in top 200. Over last seven years, #2 seeds are 15-13 vs spread, with three SU upsets last two years, after they were 40-0 SU in the decade before that.
If you bet every underdog in 5-12 games over last 18 years, you would be 44-28 (61.1%) vs spread. Saint Louis lost four of its last five games after being 25-2 at one point; eight of its last nine games were decided by 7 or less points. Billikens are very good at defending arc (29.1%, #3) but NC State doesn't shoot lot of 3's, mkaing just 30.2% (#326). Wolfpack has momentum after winning play-in game Tuesday; at-large teams that won play-in games are 3-3 vs spread in next game. Billikens have edge in experience; they're 7-5 vs top 100 teams, 19-1 vs everyone else. State is 5-1 in last six games, has best player on court in Warren.
Summit League teams are 0-5 SU in NCAAs last five years (2-3 against spread) with four losses by 8+ points. North Dakota State won its last nine games and 23 of last 26; they've got big edge in experience here, as well as win at Notre Dame before Grant got hurt, but they also lost by 17 at Ohio State, 13 at St Mary's, 1 at home to Southern Miss. Sooners won five of last seven games; six of nine guys in their rotiation are either frosh/sophs. Oklahoma plays at much faster pace; neither team subs a lot. Unlike last year, when Sooners lost last three games to end season, Oklahoma won five of its last seven games.
Milwaukee won its last five games, winning an unusual four games in the Horizon tourney; they won eight of last nine games Aaron played, after going 1-3 during four games he was suspended for. Panthers lost 80-71 to DePaul, only Big East team they've played. Villanova is 0-4 vs spread in last four first round games, losing last two (both 8-9 games); they are 0-4 vs spread last four times they were double digit favorite in 1st round with last cover in 1996. Not fond of teams that get upset in conference tourney first round like Villanova did. Teams play roughly same tempo, Milwaukee is more experienced but Wildcats will use its bench more.
Texas went 5-6 in last 11 games, Arizona State 2-5 in last seven, losing last three; ASU lost its last six neutral/road games, but beat Texas Tech by 14 in only game vs Big X opponent. Longhorns are 1-4 in last five NCAA tourney games, with all four losses hy 5 or less points- they do not have senior in their rotation, are 11-2 outside Big X. Sun Devils have big edge in experience but don't sub very much- teams play at roughly same tempo. ASU won last four first round games. Over last five years, underdogs are 15-5 vs spread in first round 7-10 games. Key to game is whether young Texas guards can neutralize ASU's PG Carson.
Manhattan coach Masiello was Knick ballboy for Pitino, both played, coached for him at Kentucky so he knows all there is to know about the Cardinals' system, but his players aren't as good. Jaspers played a weak schedule; their 80-74 loss to George Washington was only game they've played vs top 75 team. Manhattan will do same things Louisville does, but they haven't tried to do them vs players this good. Defending champ Lousiville crushed its opponent in AAC tourney last week, has chip on its shoulder now after being given 4-seed by committee. Over last eight years, favorites are 20-12 against the spread in 4-13 games.
New Mexico State played in a horribly watered-down WAC, just a bad league, but they won it and they also split with New Mexico, winning in Pit- they also lost by hoop at Colorado State, so they were 1-2 against teams in San Diego State's league and also swept UTEP, so they've got some players Aggies have 7-5 center; their opponents shot 42.8% inside arc against them. Aztecs won six of last seven games, losing to Lobos in Mountain West tourney in Vegas; they don't shoot ball especially well, tend to drift a little against inferior opponents. Over the last eight years, favorites are 20-12 against the spread in 4-13 games.
Steve's golf picks for Arnold Palmer Invitation
RICKIE FOWLER 50 TO 1
IAN POULTER 80 TO 1
JUSTIN ROSE 14.5 TO 1
KEEGAN BRADLEY 38 TO 1
JAMIE DONALDSON 70 TO 1
MARTIN LAIRD 120 TO 1
72 hole head to head
1 UNIT - RICKIE FOWLER (+105) over Will Mackenzie
2 UNIT - IAN POULTER (-110) over Lee Westwood
RICKIE FOWLER 50 TO 1
IAN POULTER 80 TO 1
JUSTIN ROSE 14.5 TO 1
KEEGAN BRADLEY 38 TO 1
JAMIE DONALDSON 70 TO 1
MARTIN LAIRD 120 TO 1
72 hole head to head
1 UNIT - RICKIE FOWLER (+105) over Will Mackenzie
2 UNIT - IAN POULTER (-110) over Lee Westwood
Ecks and Bacon
Ben lee won on Wednesday in college basketball with Tennessee +2.5/Iowa.
For Thursday E&B have two plays in college basketball.
North Carolina State +3/Saint Louis
And a three team five point teaser
(1) Manhattan +22/Louisville
(2) Oregon -.5/Byu
(3) San Diego State -2/New Mexico State
Ben lee is 2-0 +$100 for week twenty one 72-89-2 -$1873.
All E&B selections will be for $50 unless noted
Ben lee won on Wednesday in college basketball with Tennessee +2.5/Iowa.
For Thursday E&B have two plays in college basketball.
North Carolina State +3/Saint Louis
And a three team five point teaser
(1) Manhattan +22/Louisville
(2) Oregon -.5/Byu
(3) San Diego State -2/New Mexico State
Ben lee is 2-0 +$100 for week twenty one 72-89-2 -$1873.
All E&B selections will be for $50 unless noted
