Big Al
Bucknell *Paid and Confirmed*
At 7:20 pm, our selection is on the Bucknell Bison plus the points over UConn, as we will fade the Huskies off their improbable run to the Big East Championship. The Huskies were a #9 seed in their tournament, but teams who won their Conference Tourney as a #5 seed or worse, are a poor 33% ATS as favorites (or PK) in their first NCAA Tourney game. That's one reason to fade Connecticut here. But I also have 66-29, 83-39, 33-15 and 54-19 ATS systems which fade certain teams off upset wins (UConn was a 3-point dog vs. Louisville in the Big East final), as well as a 34-15 ATS system which plays on certain teams seeded 13 to 15 in the NCAA Tourney. These two teams couldn't be more different in terms of offensive balance. UConn primarily relies on Kemba Walker, a brilliant player, who averages over 23 ppg. No other Husky scores double digits. In contrast, Bucknell spreads its scoring around, as seven players average at least 7 ppg, with big man Mike Muscala tops at 14.8 ppg. The Bison are an efficient team, offensively, and rank 12th in FG percentage. UConn is just the opposite, and ranks 211th in the country in "Effective FG percentage." Even worse for UConn is that Bucknell is a strong defensive team, and ranks 16th in FG percentage defense. The Bison started the year 2-6, but have reeled off victories in 23 of their last 25 games. In this stretch was a win at Richmond on Jan. 2nd (the Spiders are in the NCAA Tourney), and a narrow 4-point loss at Boston College, so Bucknell can definitely play with the elite schools. Finally, UConn has won 5 Big East Championships since 1991, and it is 0-5 ATS in the first round of the Tourney off those 5 victories, with the average pointspread failure by 6.3 ppg! Take Bucknell. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. And don't miss any of my other winners today and tomorrow, as we should have 17 plays go in the NCAA Tourney. Or, better yet, join for a week or a month and get all of our sharp info.
Bucknell *Paid and Confirmed*
At 7:20 pm, our selection is on the Bucknell Bison plus the points over UConn, as we will fade the Huskies off their improbable run to the Big East Championship. The Huskies were a #9 seed in their tournament, but teams who won their Conference Tourney as a #5 seed or worse, are a poor 33% ATS as favorites (or PK) in their first NCAA Tourney game. That's one reason to fade Connecticut here. But I also have 66-29, 83-39, 33-15 and 54-19 ATS systems which fade certain teams off upset wins (UConn was a 3-point dog vs. Louisville in the Big East final), as well as a 34-15 ATS system which plays on certain teams seeded 13 to 15 in the NCAA Tourney. These two teams couldn't be more different in terms of offensive balance. UConn primarily relies on Kemba Walker, a brilliant player, who averages over 23 ppg. No other Husky scores double digits. In contrast, Bucknell spreads its scoring around, as seven players average at least 7 ppg, with big man Mike Muscala tops at 14.8 ppg. The Bison are an efficient team, offensively, and rank 12th in FG percentage. UConn is just the opposite, and ranks 211th in the country in "Effective FG percentage." Even worse for UConn is that Bucknell is a strong defensive team, and ranks 16th in FG percentage defense. The Bison started the year 2-6, but have reeled off victories in 23 of their last 25 games. In this stretch was a win at Richmond on Jan. 2nd (the Spiders are in the NCAA Tourney), and a narrow 4-point loss at Boston College, so Bucknell can definitely play with the elite schools. Finally, UConn has won 5 Big East Championships since 1991, and it is 0-5 ATS in the first round of the Tourney off those 5 victories, with the average pointspread failure by 6.3 ppg! Take Bucknell. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. And don't miss any of my other winners today and tomorrow, as we should have 17 plays go in the NCAA Tourney. Or, better yet, join for a week or a month and get all of our sharp info.
hey all. good luck during the tourney.
MVPCapper
CBB: Gonzaga +2.5 (8 Units)
CBB: Richmond +3 (6 Units)
CBB: Penn State +2.5 (5 Units)
CBB: Morehead St. +9.5 (4 Units)
CBB: Butler +2 (4 Units)
CBB: UCLA +1.5 (3 Units)
NBA: Clemson +2 (1 Unit)
if anyone has a chance to catch NSA's 20* today for the tourney, a post would be greatly appreciated. ty
MVPCapper
CBB: Gonzaga +2.5 (8 Units)
CBB: Richmond +3 (6 Units)
CBB: Penn State +2.5 (5 Units)
CBB: Morehead St. +9.5 (4 Units)
CBB: Butler +2 (4 Units)
CBB: UCLA +1.5 (3 Units)
NBA: Clemson +2 (1 Unit)
if anyone has a chance to catch NSA's 20* today for the tourney, a post would be greatly appreciated. ty
$$
Gold Sheet
Clemson 59 - West Virginia 54—Give Bob Huggins credit for steering
West Virginia (E5) back to the Big Dance after losing three key starters from
LY’s Final Four team and enduring a tumultuous spell of internal distractions
along the way. Still, the Mountaineers played with usual Huggins-inspired
resolve on the stop end, allowing only 64 ppg and 29% conversions beyond the
arc. But this edition has some well-documented limitations on the attack, hitting
only 42.8% from the floor, and it’s prone to go on extended droughts, as top
scorer G Casey Mitchell (14.3 ppg) continues to blow hot and cold. Prefer the
consistency of Clemson’s (E12) sr. Gs Demontez Stitt (14.7 ppg) and Andre
Young (10.8 ppg), although an “under” might be our best recommendation
FLORIDA 72 - UC-Santa Barbara 66—Though the line immediately
dropped from an opening of 14½ to 12½, still interested in taking roomy number
with veteran, smartly-coached UCSB (SE 15), which caught fire in the Big West
Tourney, upsetting top-seeded, high-scoring Long Beach State to capture the
crown for the second straight season. And, while the preseason Big West
favorite Gauchos (tied for 4th place) muddled through the regular season,
believe they are not “just happy to be here,” noting that they gave Ohio State a
tussle in LY’s 68-51 setback in LY’s first round at Milwaukee as a 17½-point
dog. In that contest, he Gauchos managed to cover despite hitting a miserable
32.6% from the field and 32% from arc (6 of 19). UCSB’s star G Orlando
Johnson says, “Last year, we went into the NCAA Tournament just happy to be
there, but this year we know what to expect. We’ll be ready. We have a chance to
win a few games.”
While seasoned Florida (SE 2) will obviously have greater fan support
playing in Tampa, believe the Gators will have trouble extending the margin.
Don’t see UF’s Chandler Parsons-led frontline dominating the paint vs .the
Gauchos’ experienced “bigs,” 6-10 John Pastorek (a career-high 12 rebs. in Big
West title game), 6-9 jr Jaime Serna, and mammoth reserve 7-3, 242 C Greg
Somogyi. Gator Gs 6-2 Kenny Boyton and 5-8 Erving Walker will have their
hands full with UCSB’s outstanding backcourt trio of 6-0 PG Justin Joyner (4
apg; tough defender), 6-7 soph James Nunnally (16 ppg, 6 rpg; 37% from arc),
and 6-5 jr. Orlando Johnson (21 ppg, 6 rpg, 2 treys pg at 40%; MVP of the Big
West Tourney). Moreover, Billy Donovan’s squad converts only 67% from the
charity stripe, while straight-shooting UCSB is an eye-opening 76%. Gators are
only 1-6 as DD chalk TY.
★ ★ ★ Ucla 74 - Michigan State 65—Though Michigan State (SE 10) has
reached the Final Four in both 2009 and 2010, this non-vintage 19-14 Spartan
edition struggled merely to make the “Big Dance” in 2011 after a disappointing
regular season during which backup G Korie Lucious was suspended and left
the team. And while highly-successful HC Tom Izzo believes the team’s
demanding preconference schedule (lost to Connecticut, Duke and Texas; beat
Wisconsin & Washington) has helped prepare his squad for the postseason, we
doubt his seniors (who have an 11-3 record in the NCAAs) will add to their
impressive mark vs. dangerous UCLA (SE 7), which has played its best vs. the
best. The Bruins lost 77-76 at Kansas and defeated BYU 86-79 in the John
Wooden Classic in Anaheim in December, while defeating St. John’s 66-59 at
home in February.
UCLA (5 players avg. between 9 and 14 ppg) is a much better balanced
squad than the Spartans, who are so heavily dependent on sr. G Kalin Lucas (17
ppg). But Lucas failed to get much consistent scoring support from backcourt
mate Durrell Summers (11.5 ppg), who sometimes was M.I.A.in the second half
of Big Ten play. MSU’s potent 6-6 F Draymond Green (12 ppg) will have trouble
getting in the groove vs. the Bruins’ 6-4 G Malcolm Lee (13 ppg), who has
blossomed into one of the Pac-10’s best defensive stoppers as a result of his
length, quickness and athleticism. Meanwhile, the Bruins’ bruising 6-10, 305-
lb. C Joshua Smith (11 ppg, 7 rpg) figures to do some damage down low vs. the
Spartans, who have only one player with much bulk in rarely-used 6-8 soph C
Derrick Nix (only 8 mpg). UCLA’s fast-rising 6-8 soph “bigs” Tyler Honeycutt (13
ppg, 7 rpg) and Reeves Nelson (14 ppg, 9 rpg, 57.4% FGs) will do plenty of
business vs. this Spartan quintet, which lacks the overall grittiness and
rebounding power of past units. So, in a game in which we believe the wrong
team is favored, must support Ben Howland’s younger but steadier bunch.
Connecticut 63 - Bucknell 61—Congratulations to Connecticut (W3) on
capturing the recent Big East Tourney. Still, while we’re duly impressed by any
team that manages five victories in five days, we also have to wonder if that
draining run might leave the Huskies somewhat vulnerable in this tournament
especially in the early rounds. And UConn has drawn a very thorny opening foe
in Bucknell (W14). The Bison haven’t been to the Big Dance in the last four
years, but they have a recent history of upsets, picking off No. 3-seeded Kansas
in the first round of 2005, then advancing to the weekend again the following
year with an opening victory over Arkansas.
This season’s Bucknell edition appears fully capable of similar heroics. 6-
11 soph Mike Muscala (14.9 ppg, 7.4 rpg, 2 bpg, 52% FGs, 81% FTs) is a
highly-skilled big man who creates matchup problems with his solid array of
mid-range moves. The Bison have plenty of perimeter bombers, led by deadeye
soph Bryson Johnson (nearly 100 made treys while converting 46% of his
attempts). And the patient Bucknell offense is piloted by super-steady sr. PG
Darryl Shazier, a three-year starter whose 3.78 assist/TO ratio ranks No. 2 in
the nation.
We won’t be surprised if do-it-all star G Kemba Walker (23.5 ppg, 5.3 rpg,
4.3 apg, 1.9 spg) manages to pull the Huskies through at the end. But the
Bisons’ work ethic on defense (allowing only 39% FGs) and resourcefulness on
offense (78.5% FTs—No. 3 in the nation) figure to take this one to the wire.
Cincinnati 70 - Missouri 65—Fifth-year head coach Mick Cronin has
former NCAA tourney regular Cincinnati (W6) back in the Big Dance for the first
time since 2005. And the fiery Cronin didn’t seem too upset when his Bearcats
were bounced in the quarterfinals of the Big East Tourney, saying that his team
could use the extra rest after the 38-point loss to Notre Dame. Cincy was on a
good roll prior to that Madison Square Garden massacre, covering six of its
previous seven games. Not so Missouri (W11), which is 1-4 straight up and 0-
5 vs. the spread in its last five games.
On the surface, this looks like a clash of defense vs. offense. The Bearcats
permit just 59 ppg on 41% FGs, while the Tigers rank among the nation’s
scoring leaders at 81 ppg. But this is really a matchup of defense vs. defense,
as Mizzou’s run-and-gun attack is fueled by its “fastest 40 minutes in basketball”
pressure on the stop end (Tiger head coach Mike Anderson is a protégé of
former Arkansas mentor Nolan Richardson). So the deciding factor in this game
is likely to be how well Cincy handles the constant presses & traps that
Anderson will deploy.
Sure, Mizzou has the more dynamic offensive options, especially jr. G
Marcus Denmon (17.1 ppg). But, while the Bearcats’ limited offensive arsenal
makes an unequivocal recommendation impossible, we do think Cincy
possesses enough ballhandlers and fastbreak finishers to score some easy
baskets and eke out a victory over a Tiger side that just doesn’t seem able to
whip up the same defensive intensity away from the friendly confines of their
Columbia home.
Pittsburgh 82 - UNC Asheville 58—Although Asheville (SE 16) suffered
the ignominy of a 47-point loss at Ohio State, the Bulldogs did have some nonconference
showings that were more respectable, winning their opener at
Auburn, hanging within 11 at North Carolina, and within 15 at Georgetown. So
there’s a chance Asheville (now on a 7-game winning streak) might create some
“irritation” from time to time for Pittsburgh (SE1). The Panthers’ problems in
NCAA tourney play have been well noted. But, in recent years, those problems
haven’t turned up until after the first round. Pitt has won five straight NCAA
openers, LY by 23 over a good Oakland team. This year’s Panthers—while not
resembling the Golden State Warriors by any means—have impressed
repeatedly with their heady, steady play, quality defense, and powerful
rebounding (+10.4 pg; second in the country). If the Bulldogs (33% triples)
aren’t hitting a few, this one won’t be pretty.
Butler 65 - Old Dominion 59—In this intriguing battle between two hardnosed
teams on 9-game winning streaks, prefer to take any available points with
a confident Butler squad (SE8), making its 5th consecutive NCAA appearance,
including LY’s marvelous run to the Final Four, when it narrowly lost 61-59 vs.
Duke in the championship game. Sure, the Bulldogs are not quite the same
team without lottery pick Gordon Hayward doing his thing. But firmly believe
clever HC Brad Stevens still possesses enough components to prevail in a
grinding battle with the aggressive, defense-minded Old Dominion (SE9), which
allows only 58.3 ppg. Butler’s fearless 6-3 sr. G Shelvin Mack (15 ppg, 4.5 rpg)
thrives in high-pressure, high-profile games. And the Bulldogs’ high-motor 6-8
sr. F Matt Howard (17 ppg, 8 rpg, 50% FGs) and blossoming 6-11 soph C
Andrew Smith (9 ppg, 5.4 rpg, 63% FGs) match up favorably with the Monarchs’
physical “bigs,” 6-8 sr. Frank Hassell (15 ppg, 10 rpg, 56% FGs), 6-5 sr. Ben
Finney (9 ppg, 6 rpg), and 6-8 sr. Keyon Carter (7 ppg, 4 rpg).
Butler really cranked up the defensive intensity during its winning streak,
yielding just 58 ppg. And, while board-crashing ODU (+12 rpg) makes a living
on 2nd-chance points (accounting for 40% of its offense!), don’t see the
Monarchs getting a plethora of putbacks vs. the taller Bulldogs, who benefited
from facing the likes of Duke, Xavier, Louisville and Florida State in the
preconference. Moreover, Butler, led by sharp-shooting sr. G Shawn Vanzant
(8 ppg, 43% from tripleville; 7 of 11 treys last 4 games), is more accurate from
the perimeter than the offensively-limited Monarchs (65.8 ppg), who convert just
44% FGs (only 32.% from 3-point range). So, there is a good a chance Butler
adds to its jaw-dropping 31-1 SU mark over the last two campaigns when
limiting foes to fewer than 60 points! Yes, Blaine Taylor’s squad is seeking
revenge for its 57-46 defeat vs. this Horizon League rep in the NCAA’s first
round in 2007, but believe its déjà vu for in 2011.
NCAA TOURNAMENT
NCAA SOUTHWEST REGIONAL
Thursday, March 17 at the Pepsi Center, Denver, CO
Vanderbilt 67 - Richmond 60—Richmond (SW12) is a proven NCAA
tourney pest. And the Spiders, the Atlantic-10 Tournament champs, figure to be
so again before being exterminated. Lanky 6-10 sr. F Justin Harper (17.8 ppg,
7.1 rpg, 46% treys) and 6-0 sr. PG Kevin Anderson (16.3 ppg, 43% triples) have
become masters of HC Chris Mooney’s version of the Princeton offense. But
Vanderbilt (SW5) has plenty of weapons of its own, which have been honed on
the rugged competition of the SEC East, which has placed 5 of its 6 members
in TY’s field. Perhaps more importantly, the Commodores have their own
dynamic duo in 6-4 soph shooter John Jenkins (19.5 ppg, 40% threes) and
rapidly-blooming 6-11, sr. C Festus Ezeli (12.8 ppg, 6.2 rpg). And underrated
6-7 sr. Jeffrey Taylor (15.1 ppg) is a dogged defender who figures to make
things difficult for Spider top scorer Harper. In what figures to be a close game,
Vandy’s better FTing (74.% vs. the Spiders’ 69.1%) might make a crucial
difference.
Louisville 71 - Morehead State 66—Morehead (SW13) missed the NCAA
Tournament last year. But this year’s Ohio Valley Tournament champion
Eagles believe they have some business to settle with Louisville (SW4), which
is just about 100 miles west of Morehead, KY on Interstate 64. In 2009, the
Eagles routed Alabama State 58-43 in the Play-in game, only to become a 74-
54 victim of Rick Pitino’s Cardinals a few days later. Safe to say, the three
seniors and three juniors in Morehead’s primary rotation are eager for another
chance at Louisville. And why not? The Eagles pound the boards (+9.2 rpg) and
enter the tourney on a long streak of positive play (18-3 SU, with its two losses
before that in OT, both of those on the road). Morehead stayed within 6 at
Florida back in November (but lost by 19 at Ohio State). Perhaps most
importantly, sr. star F Kenneth Faried (leads the nation in rebounds at 14.5 pg
and FG% at 64.4) has a chance to take advantage of the Cards’ still-developing
interior this season. Eagle PG Demonte Harper must curb his turnovers. But
maybe well-rested Morehead catches Louisville a bit flat after its last-second
loss to UConn in the Big East final.
NCAA TOURNAMENT
NCAA SOUTHEAST REGIONAL
Thursday, March 17 at the Pepsi Center, Denver, CO
★ ★ ★ Wofford 74 - Byu 72—Senior-laden Wofford (SE14)—which has
enjoyed back-to-back 20-win seasons for first time since 1963-65—was a 14-
seed year a ago, when it gave Wisconsin a real scare in a 53-49 loss in Round
One (the Terriers converted just 6 of 13 from the foul line). Wofford’s sr. G
Cameron Rundles reflects, “We were just a little excited to be there. In the first
half we struggled against Wisconsin, and in the second half we knew that we
belonged here. We [now] think and know we belong there.” And we wouldn’t be
shocked to see chemistry-rich, accurate-gunning Wofford (48% FGs, 41% from
tripleville) garner the Southern League’s first upset in the NCAAs since
Davidson made its run to the Elite Eight three seasons ago.
After all, the surging Terriers, who rattled off eight straight wins to close the
season, are efficient on offense, take good shots, and limit mistakes (only 11.9
TOs pg), thanks to top-level backcourt play from the aforementioned Rundles
(14 ppg, 41% from arc), 6-2 sr. G Jamar Diggs (13 ppg, 3 apg), and 6-0 jr.G Brad
Loesing (6 ppg, 3 apg, 44% 3s). While BYU’s (SE3) highly-explosive G Jimmer
Fredette (nation-leading 28 ppg), who seemingly has limitless range, will get his
points, he is a defensive liability vs. the Terriers’ productive backcourt.
Moreover, the Cougars have serious matchup problems in the paint due to the
absence of suspended 6-8 F Brandon Davies (11 ppg, 6 rpg), who is clearly the
squad’s No. 1 post defender. No doubt Wofford’s dynamic 6-6 sr. F Noah
Dalman (20 ppg, 6 rpg, 61% FGs) will be able to fully exploit BYU’s vulnerable
interior, while quick and thick 6-6 sr. F Tim Johnson (6 ppg, 2.5 apg, leagueleading
8.4 rpg) will provide many 2nd-chance opportunities. Dave Rose’s crew
escaped with a 99-92 double-OT victory vs. Florida in the first round a year ago,
but look for the Cougs to add to their lowly 1-6-1 spread mark in the Big Dance
since 2001 in this anticipated upset. Note Southern Conference reps a
noteworthy 15-7 vs. the spread in NCAAs since 2001 (5-1 last 6).
Gonzaga 76 - St. John’s 72—Kudos to St. John’s (SE6) first-year HC
Steve Lavin for guiding his senior-dominated squad to the NCAA Tourney for
the first time since 2002. And while Lavin says his squad is not satisfied and
wants to make a deep run in the tourney, we have serious doubts the Red Storm
can achieve that goal vs. surging Gonzaga, which is on a 9-game win skein (6-
2 vs. spread in posted games) entering its 13th straight “Big Dance.” Here’s
why. The smallish, G-oriented Red Storm (ranking last in Big East in blocks)
lost its most versatile performer, 6-5 swingman D.J. Kennedy (3rd-leading
scorer and top rebounder), to a season-ending ACL injury in their 79-73 setback
vs. Syracuse in the first round of the Big East Tourney. And since SJ (no starter
over 6-7) didn’t have much size to begin with, the Red Storm is now clearly
unable to match up with Gonzaga’s effective “bigs,” 7-0, 260 C Robert Sacre (13
ppg, 6 rpg), 6-7 soph Elias Harris (12 ppg, 6 rpg), and chiseled 6-9 248 San
Dower (8 ppg, 57% FGs), who has come on like gangbusters down the stretch.
In fact, when the Bulldogs’ crafty, long-time HC Mark Few began giving
extending playing time to juco PG Marquis Carter, frosh PG David Stockton
(John Stockton’s son), and the aforementioned Dower, Gonzaga went 11-1
following a 13-8 start. The Red Storm does own a game-changer in scintillating
sr. G Dwight Hardy (18 ppg), but the Bulldogs own a solid go-to guy of their own
in 6-5 sr. G Steven Gray (14 ppg, 4 rpg, 4 apg), who had 15 pts. and 7 caroms
in the WCC title game before picking up a cut above his eye that required
stitches. Therefore, believe the Zags can avenge LY’s painful 87-65 defeat vs.
another Big East foe, Syracuse (in the second round), vs. a hurting SJ squad
(fell at Saint Mary’s 76-71) that figures to end the campaign the way it started,
with bookend losses vs. a WCC opponent.
NCAA TOURNAMENT
NCAA WEST REGIONAL
Thursday, March 17 at the McKale Center, Tucson, AZ
San Diego State 79 - Northern Colorado 58—First-ever trip to the NCAA
tourney for Big Sky rep Northern Colorado (15), which made the jump from
Division II up to Division I less than a decade ago. The Bears were helped by
their strong homecourt edge in Greeley during their recent conference tourney,
notching close victories over Northern Arizona and Montana at cozy Butler-
Hancock Pavilion to nab the Big Sky’s Big Dance bid. UNCO is led by
sharp-shooting sr. Devon Beitzel (21.4 ppg), but Beitzel is far from the only
player who’ll jack up a trey for the bombs-away Bears, as nearly 40% of their
shot attempts come from beyond the three-point arc.
That over-dependence on perimeter gunning is likely to spell doom against
stifling San Diego State (2). The Aztecs begrudge foes just 59 ppg while
allowing only just 31% on three-point attempts. Long-armed sr. PG D.J. Gay
should be the perfect antidote for Beitzel, and window-wiping SDSU Fs Kawhi
Leonard & Malcolm Thomas (combined 19 rpg) will make sure it’s one-anddone
for the UNCO shooters. Plus, that duo should do major damage on the
offensive glass against the overmatched Bears’ frontcourt.
While we might not have had confidence in last season’s less potent Aztecs
to carry such a substantial impost, this year’s better-balanced SDSU edition
appears to have the wherewithal on the attack end to blow away this eager but
flawed first-round foe.
Penn State 56 - Temple 51—Despite all the success Temple (W7) has
enjoyed over the last few seasons under head coach Fran Dunphy, the Owls
have been bounced from the Big Dance in the first round each of the last three
years (with all the setbacks by substantial margins). In fact, it’s interesting to
note that the former Penn Quakers’ mentor Dunphy has now lost ten straight
NCAA tourney games!
Snapping that streak against pugnacious Penn State (W10) will be no mean
feat, either. The Nittany Lions (14-5 vs. the spread their last 19) made it all the
way to Big 10 Tourney final before running out of gas against top-ranked Ohio
State. And Ed DeChellis’ plucky bunch has beaten the likes of Wisconsin
(twice), Michigan State (twice), and Illinois during the course of the season.
Perhaps the best recommendation in this matchup is “under” the total
points, as neither of these stout defensive teams figures to allow many
uncontested shots. As to the side, Temple does have a little better balance on
the attack end, especially if 6-6 jr. Scootie Randall is back in action (as
expected) after sitting out the last seven games with a foot injury. However,
Penn State owns the most formidable offensive force on the floor in sr. G Talor
Battle (20.1 ppg). And, if the game is close in crunch time, we wouldn’t be
against the indomitable Battle making the winning plays down the stretch.
Utah State 72 - Kansas State 65—Kansas State (SE5) has managed
to pull it together by going 8-1 its last 9 games following a 2-5 start in the Big XII.
Still unconvinced, however, that the volatile Wildcats can make another deep
run like last season, when they marched to the Elite Eight. Sure, KSU backcourt
play improved dramatically behind terrific 6-4 sr. G Jacob Pullen (20 ppg), who
began to get increasing support from slashing 6-4 soph G Rodney McGruder
(11 ppg, 6 rpg) and a couple of frosh Gs, Shane Southwell and Will Spradling.
But the frontcourt, which appeared to be KSU’s main strength before the
season, is now a weakness, due to the midseason desertions of 6-9 soph Wally
Judge and 6-10 jr. F Freddy Asprilla. And there is a good chance that the
Wildcats’ over-aggressive 6-8 F Curtis Kelly (10 ppg, 5 rpg) could find himself
in early foul trouble vs. Utah State’s (SE12) well-designed half-court sets,
spearheaded by 6-7 sr. Tai Wesley (15 ppg, 8 rpg, 60 % FGs; WAC Player of the
Year), who is a stat-sheet stuffer, leading the Aggies in scoring and rebounding
and topping 250 assists and 130 blocks for his career.
Regional scouts tell us Utah State’s quick-learning PG Brockeith Pane has
done a masterful job executing HC Stew Morrill’s complex system (with its “hot”
and “cold” reads), while steak-shooting 6-1 sr. G Brian Green (10 ppg, 47% from
the arc) and high-leaping 6-7 jr. F Brady Jardine (8 ppg, 8 rpg) are MAJOR
assets off the bench. Though Frank Martin’s squad has a more impressive
portfolio, with wins over Texas and Kansas, still believe the careful, methodical
Aggies can dictate a slower pace and end their 5-game losing streak in the
NCAAs, reaching the second round for only the second time since 1970.
Belmont 67 - Wisconsin 65—After narrowly escaping in tight 1st-round
NCAA battles in both 2009 (61-59 OT win vs. Florida State) and 2010 (53-49
victory vs. Wofford), won’t be surprised if Wisconsin (SE4) suffers a minor upset
vs. high-octane (80 ppg), ball-thieving (9 spg) Belmont (SE13), which nearly
shocked Duke in a 71-70 loss in the first round of the 2008 tourney in 2008.
Regional scouts inform us that the Bruins’ well-respected, 25-year mentor Rick
Byrd believes he has his best squad ever. The super-deep (11 play 10+ mpg),
good-shooting Bruins (47% FGs, 38% from the arc), hung tough in a pair of
losses vs. in-state foes Tennessee and Vandy this season. The well-tutored,
mistake-free Badgers (nation’s-fewest 7.6 TOs pg) do own an NBA-caliber
inside-outside tandem in 6-10 Jon Leuer (10 ppg, 7 rpg) and 6-1 jr. Jordan
Taylor (18 ppg, 4 apg). But HC Bo Ryan has had some issues locating a
consistent third scoring option, especially away from the Kohl Center, with
Wiscy going just 4-5 on the Big Ten trail, not to mention its ugly 36-33 loss vs.
Penn State in the opening round of the conference tourney.
Look for Belmont’s bevy of 3-point marksmen (9 treys pg)—featuring jetquick
6-3 soph Ian Clark (12 ppg at 44% from tripleville) and 6-5 swingman
Jordan Campbell (8 ppg at 46% from the arc)—to be a serious concern for a
Badger defense that is surprisingly vulnerable vs. the three-ball, allowing a
whopping 38% (ranking 317th! ). And when the Wiscy defense gets stretchedout,
the Bruins can work the ball inside to solid 6-9 jr. Mick Hedgepeth (11 ppg,
6 rpg) and/or 6-10 C Scott Saunders (10 ppg). With the Badgers possibly
missing top reserve 6-6 soph Mke Bruesewitz (due to knee injury), we envision
havoc-wreaking (force 19 TOs pg), sizzling Belmont to nab its 13th straight
victory and advance to the second round for the first time in school history.
Clemson 59 - West Virginia 54—Give Bob Huggins credit for steering
West Virginia (E5) back to the Big Dance after losing three key starters from
LY’s Final Four team and enduring a tumultuous spell of internal distractions
along the way. Still, the Mountaineers played with usual Huggins-inspired
resolve on the stop end, allowing only 64 ppg and 29% conversions beyond the
arc. But this edition has some well-documented limitations on the attack, hitting
only 42.8% from the floor, and it’s prone to go on extended droughts, as top
scorer G Casey Mitchell (14.3 ppg) continues to blow hot and cold. Prefer the
consistency of Clemson’s (E12) sr. Gs Demontez Stitt (14.7 ppg) and Andre
Young (10.8 ppg), although an “under” might be our best recommendation
FLORIDA 72 - UC-Santa Barbara 66—Though the line immediately
dropped from an opening of 14½ to 12½, still interested in taking roomy number
with veteran, smartly-coached UCSB (SE 15), which caught fire in the Big West
Tourney, upsetting top-seeded, high-scoring Long Beach State to capture the
crown for the second straight season. And, while the preseason Big West
favorite Gauchos (tied for 4th place) muddled through the regular season,
believe they are not “just happy to be here,” noting that they gave Ohio State a
tussle in LY’s 68-51 setback in LY’s first round at Milwaukee as a 17½-point
dog. In that contest, he Gauchos managed to cover despite hitting a miserable
32.6% from the field and 32% from arc (6 of 19). UCSB’s star G Orlando
Johnson says, “Last year, we went into the NCAA Tournament just happy to be
there, but this year we know what to expect. We’ll be ready. We have a chance to
win a few games.”
While seasoned Florida (SE 2) will obviously have greater fan support
playing in Tampa, believe the Gators will have trouble extending the margin.
Don’t see UF’s Chandler Parsons-led frontline dominating the paint vs .the
Gauchos’ experienced “bigs,” 6-10 John Pastorek (a career-high 12 rebs. in Big
West title game), 6-9 jr Jaime Serna, and mammoth reserve 7-3, 242 C Greg
Somogyi. Gator Gs 6-2 Kenny Boyton and 5-8 Erving Walker will have their
hands full with UCSB’s outstanding backcourt trio of 6-0 PG Justin Joyner (4
apg; tough defender), 6-7 soph James Nunnally (16 ppg, 6 rpg; 37% from arc),
and 6-5 jr. Orlando Johnson (21 ppg, 6 rpg, 2 treys pg at 40%; MVP of the Big
West Tourney). Moreover, Billy Donovan’s squad converts only 67% from the
charity stripe, while straight-shooting UCSB is an eye-opening 76%. Gators are
only 1-6 as DD chalk TY.
★ ★ ★ Ucla 74 - Michigan State 65—Though Michigan State (SE 10) has
reached the Final Four in both 2009 and 2010, this non-vintage 19-14 Spartan
edition struggled merely to make the “Big Dance” in 2011 after a disappointing
regular season during which backup G Korie Lucious was suspended and left
the team. And while highly-successful HC Tom Izzo believes the team’s
demanding preconference schedule (lost to Connecticut, Duke and Texas; beat
Wisconsin & Washington) has helped prepare his squad for the postseason, we
doubt his seniors (who have an 11-3 record in the NCAAs) will add to their
impressive mark vs. dangerous UCLA (SE 7), which has played its best vs. the
best. The Bruins lost 77-76 at Kansas and defeated BYU 86-79 in the John
Wooden Classic in Anaheim in December, while defeating St. John’s 66-59 at
home in February.
UCLA (5 players avg. between 9 and 14 ppg) is a much better balanced
squad than the Spartans, who are so heavily dependent on sr. G Kalin Lucas (17
ppg). But Lucas failed to get much consistent scoring support from backcourt
mate Durrell Summers (11.5 ppg), who sometimes was M.I.A.in the second half
of Big Ten play. MSU’s potent 6-6 F Draymond Green (12 ppg) will have trouble
getting in the groove vs. the Bruins’ 6-4 G Malcolm Lee (13 ppg), who has
blossomed into one of the Pac-10’s best defensive stoppers as a result of his
length, quickness and athleticism. Meanwhile, the Bruins’ bruising 6-10, 305-
lb. C Joshua Smith (11 ppg, 7 rpg) figures to do some damage down low vs. the
Spartans, who have only one player with much bulk in rarely-used 6-8 soph C
Derrick Nix (only 8 mpg). UCLA’s fast-rising 6-8 soph “bigs” Tyler Honeycutt (13
ppg, 7 rpg) and Reeves Nelson (14 ppg, 9 rpg, 57.4% FGs) will do plenty of
business vs. this Spartan quintet, which lacks the overall grittiness and
rebounding power of past units. So, in a game in which we believe the wrong
team is favored, must support Ben Howland’s younger but steadier bunch.
Connecticut 63 - Bucknell 61—Congratulations to Connecticut (W3) on
capturing the recent Big East Tourney. Still, while we’re duly impressed by any
team that manages five victories in five days, we also have to wonder if that
draining run might leave the Huskies somewhat vulnerable in this tournament
especially in the early rounds. And UConn has drawn a very thorny opening foe
in Bucknell (W14). The Bison haven’t been to the Big Dance in the last four
years, but they have a recent history of upsets, picking off No. 3-seeded Kansas
in the first round of 2005, then advancing to the weekend again the following
year with an opening victory over Arkansas.
This season’s Bucknell edition appears fully capable of similar heroics. 6-
11 soph Mike Muscala (14.9 ppg, 7.4 rpg, 2 bpg, 52% FGs, 81% FTs) is a
highly-skilled big man who creates matchup problems with his solid array of
mid-range moves. The Bison have plenty of perimeter bombers, led by deadeye
soph Bryson Johnson (nearly 100 made treys while converting 46% of his
attempts). And the patient Bucknell offense is piloted by super-steady sr. PG
Darryl Shazier, a three-year starter whose 3.78 assist/TO ratio ranks No. 2 in
the nation.
We won’t be surprised if do-it-all star G Kemba Walker (23.5 ppg, 5.3 rpg,
4.3 apg, 1.9 spg) manages to pull the Huskies through at the end. But the
Bisons’ work ethic on defense (allowing only 39% FGs) and resourcefulness on
offense (78.5% FTs—No. 3 in the nation) figure to take this one to the wire.
Cincinnati 70 - Missouri 65—Fifth-year head coach Mick Cronin has
former NCAA tourney regular Cincinnati (W6) back in the Big Dance for the first
time since 2005. And the fiery Cronin didn’t seem too upset when his Bearcats
were bounced in the quarterfinals of the Big East Tourney, saying that his team
could use the extra rest after the 38-point loss to Notre Dame. Cincy was on a
good roll prior to that Madison Square Garden massacre, covering six of its
previous seven games. Not so Missouri (W11), which is 1-4 straight up and 0-
5 vs. the spread in its last five games.
On the surface, this looks like a clash of defense vs. offense. The Bearcats
permit just 59 ppg on 41% FGs, while the Tigers rank among the nation’s
scoring leaders at 81 ppg. But this is really a matchup of defense vs. defense,
as Mizzou’s run-and-gun attack is fueled by its “fastest 40 minutes in basketball”
pressure on the stop end (Tiger head coach Mike Anderson is a protégé of
former Arkansas mentor Nolan Richardson). So the deciding factor in this game
is likely to be how well Cincy handles the constant presses & traps that
Anderson will deploy.
Sure, Mizzou has the more dynamic offensive options, especially jr. G
Marcus Denmon (17.1 ppg). But, while the Bearcats’ limited offensive arsenal
makes an unequivocal recommendation impossible, we do think Cincy
possesses enough ballhandlers and fastbreak finishers to score some easy
baskets and eke out a victory over a Tiger side that just doesn’t seem able to
whip up the same defensive intensity away from the friendly confines of their
Columbia home.
Pittsburgh 82 - UNC Asheville 58—Although Asheville (SE 16) suffered
the ignominy of a 47-point loss at Ohio State, the Bulldogs did have some nonconference
showings that were more respectable, winning their opener at
Auburn, hanging within 11 at North Carolina, and within 15 at Georgetown. So
there’s a chance Asheville (now on a 7-game winning streak) might create some
“irritation” from time to time for Pittsburgh (SE1). The Panthers’ problems in
NCAA tourney play have been well noted. But, in recent years, those problems
haven’t turned up until after the first round. Pitt has won five straight NCAA
openers, LY by 23 over a good Oakland team. This year’s Panthers—while not
resembling the Golden State Warriors by any means—have impressed
repeatedly with their heady, steady play, quality defense, and powerful
rebounding (+10.4 pg; second in the country). If the Bulldogs (33% triples)
aren’t hitting a few, this one won’t be pretty.
Butler 65 - Old Dominion 59—In this intriguing battle between two hardnosed
teams on 9-game winning streaks, prefer to take any available points with
a confident Butler squad (SE8), making its 5th consecutive NCAA appearance,
including LY’s marvelous run to the Final Four, when it narrowly lost 61-59 vs.
Duke in the championship game. Sure, the Bulldogs are not quite the same
team without lottery pick Gordon Hayward doing his thing. But firmly believe
clever HC Brad Stevens still possesses enough components to prevail in a
grinding battle with the aggressive, defense-minded Old Dominion (SE9), which
allows only 58.3 ppg. Butler’s fearless 6-3 sr. G Shelvin Mack (15 ppg, 4.5 rpg)
thrives in high-pressure, high-profile games. And the Bulldogs’ high-motor 6-8
sr. F Matt Howard (17 ppg, 8 rpg, 50% FGs) and blossoming 6-11 soph C
Andrew Smith (9 ppg, 5.4 rpg, 63% FGs) match up favorably with the Monarchs’
physical “bigs,” 6-8 sr. Frank Hassell (15 ppg, 10 rpg, 56% FGs), 6-5 sr. Ben
Finney (9 ppg, 6 rpg), and 6-8 sr. Keyon Carter (7 ppg, 4 rpg).
Butler really cranked up the defensive intensity during its winning streak,
yielding just 58 ppg. And, while board-crashing ODU (+12 rpg) makes a living
on 2nd-chance points (accounting for 40% of its offense!), don’t see the
Monarchs getting a plethora of putbacks vs. the taller Bulldogs, who benefited
from facing the likes of Duke, Xavier, Louisville and Florida State in the
preconference. Moreover, Butler, led by sharp-shooting sr. G Shawn Vanzant
(8 ppg, 43% from tripleville; 7 of 11 treys last 4 games), is more accurate from
the perimeter than the offensively-limited Monarchs (65.8 ppg), who convert just
44% FGs (only 32.% from 3-point range). So, there is a good a chance Butler
adds to its jaw-dropping 31-1 SU mark over the last two campaigns when
limiting foes to fewer than 60 points! Yes, Blaine Taylor’s squad is seeking
revenge for its 57-46 defeat vs. this Horizon League rep in the NCAA’s first
round in 2007, but believe its déjà vu for in 2011.
NCAA TOURNAMENT
NCAA SOUTHWEST REGIONAL
Thursday, March 17 at the Pepsi Center, Denver, CO
Vanderbilt 67 - Richmond 60—Richmond (SW12) is a proven NCAA
tourney pest. And the Spiders, the Atlantic-10 Tournament champs, figure to be
so again before being exterminated. Lanky 6-10 sr. F Justin Harper (17.8 ppg,
7.1 rpg, 46% treys) and 6-0 sr. PG Kevin Anderson (16.3 ppg, 43% triples) have
become masters of HC Chris Mooney’s version of the Princeton offense. But
Vanderbilt (SW5) has plenty of weapons of its own, which have been honed on
the rugged competition of the SEC East, which has placed 5 of its 6 members
in TY’s field. Perhaps more importantly, the Commodores have their own
dynamic duo in 6-4 soph shooter John Jenkins (19.5 ppg, 40% threes) and
rapidly-blooming 6-11, sr. C Festus Ezeli (12.8 ppg, 6.2 rpg). And underrated
6-7 sr. Jeffrey Taylor (15.1 ppg) is a dogged defender who figures to make
things difficult for Spider top scorer Harper. In what figures to be a close game,
Vandy’s better FTing (74.% vs. the Spiders’ 69.1%) might make a crucial
difference.
Louisville 71 - Morehead State 66—Morehead (SW13) missed the NCAA
Tournament last year. But this year’s Ohio Valley Tournament champion
Eagles believe they have some business to settle with Louisville (SW4), which
is just about 100 miles west of Morehead, KY on Interstate 64. In 2009, the
Eagles routed Alabama State 58-43 in the Play-in game, only to become a 74-
54 victim of Rick Pitino’s Cardinals a few days later. Safe to say, the three
seniors and three juniors in Morehead’s primary rotation are eager for another
chance at Louisville. And why not? The Eagles pound the boards (+9.2 rpg) and
enter the tourney on a long streak of positive play (18-3 SU, with its two losses
before that in OT, both of those on the road). Morehead stayed within 6 at
Florida back in November (but lost by 19 at Ohio State). Perhaps most
importantly, sr. star F Kenneth Faried (leads the nation in rebounds at 14.5 pg
and FG% at 64.4) has a chance to take advantage of the Cards’ still-developing
interior this season. Eagle PG Demonte Harper must curb his turnovers. But
maybe well-rested Morehead catches Louisville a bit flat after its last-second
loss to UConn in the Big East final.
NCAA TOURNAMENT
NCAA SOUTHEAST REGIONAL
Thursday, March 17 at the Pepsi Center, Denver, CO
★ ★ ★ Wofford 74 - Byu 72—Senior-laden Wofford (SE14)—which has
enjoyed back-to-back 20-win seasons for first time since 1963-65—was a 14-
seed year a ago, when it gave Wisconsin a real scare in a 53-49 loss in Round
One (the Terriers converted just 6 of 13 from the foul line). Wofford’s sr. G
Cameron Rundles reflects, “We were just a little excited to be there. In the first
half we struggled against Wisconsin, and in the second half we knew that we
belonged here. We [now] think and know we belong there.” And we wouldn’t be
shocked to see chemistry-rich, accurate-gunning Wofford (48% FGs, 41% from
tripleville) garner the Southern League’s first upset in the NCAAs since
Davidson made its run to the Elite Eight three seasons ago.
After all, the surging Terriers, who rattled off eight straight wins to close the
season, are efficient on offense, take good shots, and limit mistakes (only 11.9
TOs pg), thanks to top-level backcourt play from the aforementioned Rundles
(14 ppg, 41% from arc), 6-2 sr. G Jamar Diggs (13 ppg, 3 apg), and 6-0 jr.G Brad
Loesing (6 ppg, 3 apg, 44% 3s). While BYU’s (SE3) highly-explosive G Jimmer
Fredette (nation-leading 28 ppg), who seemingly has limitless range, will get his
points, he is a defensive liability vs. the Terriers’ productive backcourt.
Moreover, the Cougars have serious matchup problems in the paint due to the
absence of suspended 6-8 F Brandon Davies (11 ppg, 6 rpg), who is clearly the
squad’s No. 1 post defender. No doubt Wofford’s dynamic 6-6 sr. F Noah
Dalman (20 ppg, 6 rpg, 61% FGs) will be able to fully exploit BYU’s vulnerable
interior, while quick and thick 6-6 sr. F Tim Johnson (6 ppg, 2.5 apg, leagueleading
8.4 rpg) will provide many 2nd-chance opportunities. Dave Rose’s crew
escaped with a 99-92 double-OT victory vs. Florida in the first round a year ago,
but look for the Cougs to add to their lowly 1-6-1 spread mark in the Big Dance
since 2001 in this anticipated upset. Note Southern Conference reps a
noteworthy 15-7 vs. the spread in NCAAs since 2001 (5-1 last 6).
Gonzaga 76 - St. John’s 72—Kudos to St. John’s (SE6) first-year HC
Steve Lavin for guiding his senior-dominated squad to the NCAA Tourney for
the first time since 2002. And while Lavin says his squad is not satisfied and
wants to make a deep run in the tourney, we have serious doubts the Red Storm
can achieve that goal vs. surging Gonzaga, which is on a 9-game win skein (6-
2 vs. spread in posted games) entering its 13th straight “Big Dance.” Here’s
why. The smallish, G-oriented Red Storm (ranking last in Big East in blocks)
lost its most versatile performer, 6-5 swingman D.J. Kennedy (3rd-leading
scorer and top rebounder), to a season-ending ACL injury in their 79-73 setback
vs. Syracuse in the first round of the Big East Tourney. And since SJ (no starter
over 6-7) didn’t have much size to begin with, the Red Storm is now clearly
unable to match up with Gonzaga’s effective “bigs,” 7-0, 260 C Robert Sacre (13
ppg, 6 rpg), 6-7 soph Elias Harris (12 ppg, 6 rpg), and chiseled 6-9 248 San
Dower (8 ppg, 57% FGs), who has come on like gangbusters down the stretch.
In fact, when the Bulldogs’ crafty, long-time HC Mark Few began giving
extending playing time to juco PG Marquis Carter, frosh PG David Stockton
(John Stockton’s son), and the aforementioned Dower, Gonzaga went 11-1
following a 13-8 start. The Red Storm does own a game-changer in scintillating
sr. G Dwight Hardy (18 ppg), but the Bulldogs own a solid go-to guy of their own
in 6-5 sr. G Steven Gray (14 ppg, 4 rpg, 4 apg), who had 15 pts. and 7 caroms
in the WCC title game before picking up a cut above his eye that required
stitches. Therefore, believe the Zags can avenge LY’s painful 87-65 defeat vs.
another Big East foe, Syracuse (in the second round), vs. a hurting SJ squad
(fell at Saint Mary’s 76-71) that figures to end the campaign the way it started,
with bookend losses vs. a WCC opponent.
NCAA TOURNAMENT
NCAA WEST REGIONAL
Thursday, March 17 at the McKale Center, Tucson, AZ
San Diego State 79 - Northern Colorado 58—First-ever trip to the NCAA
tourney for Big Sky rep Northern Colorado (15), which made the jump from
Division II up to Division I less than a decade ago. The Bears were helped by
their strong homecourt edge in Greeley during their recent conference tourney,
notching close victories over Northern Arizona and Montana at cozy Butler-
Hancock Pavilion to nab the Big Sky’s Big Dance bid. UNCO is led by
sharp-shooting sr. Devon Beitzel (21.4 ppg), but Beitzel is far from the only
player who’ll jack up a trey for the bombs-away Bears, as nearly 40% of their
shot attempts come from beyond the three-point arc.
That over-dependence on perimeter gunning is likely to spell doom against
stifling San Diego State (2). The Aztecs begrudge foes just 59 ppg while
allowing only just 31% on three-point attempts. Long-armed sr. PG D.J. Gay
should be the perfect antidote for Beitzel, and window-wiping SDSU Fs Kawhi
Leonard & Malcolm Thomas (combined 19 rpg) will make sure it’s one-anddone
for the UNCO shooters. Plus, that duo should do major damage on the
offensive glass against the overmatched Bears’ frontcourt.
While we might not have had confidence in last season’s less potent Aztecs
to carry such a substantial impost, this year’s better-balanced SDSU edition
appears to have the wherewithal on the attack end to blow away this eager but
flawed first-round foe.
Penn State 56 - Temple 51—Despite all the success Temple (W7) has
enjoyed over the last few seasons under head coach Fran Dunphy, the Owls
have been bounced from the Big Dance in the first round each of the last three
years (with all the setbacks by substantial margins). In fact, it’s interesting to
note that the former Penn Quakers’ mentor Dunphy has now lost ten straight
NCAA tourney games!
Snapping that streak against pugnacious Penn State (W10) will be no mean
feat, either. The Nittany Lions (14-5 vs. the spread their last 19) made it all the
way to Big 10 Tourney final before running out of gas against top-ranked Ohio
State. And Ed DeChellis’ plucky bunch has beaten the likes of Wisconsin
(twice), Michigan State (twice), and Illinois during the course of the season.
Perhaps the best recommendation in this matchup is “under” the total
points, as neither of these stout defensive teams figures to allow many
uncontested shots. As to the side, Temple does have a little better balance on
the attack end, especially if 6-6 jr. Scootie Randall is back in action (as
expected) after sitting out the last seven games with a foot injury. However,
Penn State owns the most formidable offensive force on the floor in sr. G Talor
Battle (20.1 ppg). And, if the game is close in crunch time, we wouldn’t be
against the indomitable Battle making the winning plays down the stretch.
Utah State 72 - Kansas State 65—Kansas State (SE5) has managed
to pull it together by going 8-1 its last 9 games following a 2-5 start in the Big XII.
Still unconvinced, however, that the volatile Wildcats can make another deep
run like last season, when they marched to the Elite Eight. Sure, KSU backcourt
play improved dramatically behind terrific 6-4 sr. G Jacob Pullen (20 ppg), who
began to get increasing support from slashing 6-4 soph G Rodney McGruder
(11 ppg, 6 rpg) and a couple of frosh Gs, Shane Southwell and Will Spradling.
But the frontcourt, which appeared to be KSU’s main strength before the
season, is now a weakness, due to the midseason desertions of 6-9 soph Wally
Judge and 6-10 jr. F Freddy Asprilla. And there is a good chance that the
Wildcats’ over-aggressive 6-8 F Curtis Kelly (10 ppg, 5 rpg) could find himself
in early foul trouble vs. Utah State’s (SE12) well-designed half-court sets,
spearheaded by 6-7 sr. Tai Wesley (15 ppg, 8 rpg, 60 % FGs; WAC Player of the
Year), who is a stat-sheet stuffer, leading the Aggies in scoring and rebounding
and topping 250 assists and 130 blocks for his career.
Regional scouts tell us Utah State’s quick-learning PG Brockeith Pane has
done a masterful job executing HC Stew Morrill’s complex system (with its “hot”
and “cold” reads), while steak-shooting 6-1 sr. G Brian Green (10 ppg, 47% from
the arc) and high-leaping 6-7 jr. F Brady Jardine (8 ppg, 8 rpg) are MAJOR
assets off the bench. Though Frank Martin’s squad has a more impressive
portfolio, with wins over Texas and Kansas, still believe the careful, methodical
Aggies can dictate a slower pace and end their 5-game losing streak in the
NCAAs, reaching the second round for only the second time since 1970.
Belmont 67 - Wisconsin 65—After narrowly escaping in tight 1st-round
NCAA battles in both 2009 (61-59 OT win vs. Florida State) and 2010 (53-49
victory vs. Wofford), won’t be surprised if Wisconsin (SE4) suffers a minor upset
vs. high-octane (80 ppg), ball-thieving (9 spg) Belmont (SE13), which nearly
shocked Duke in a 71-70 loss in the first round of the 2008 tourney in 2008.
Regional scouts inform us that the Bruins’ well-respected, 25-year mentor Rick
Byrd believes he has his best squad ever. The super-deep (11 play 10+ mpg),
good-shooting Bruins (47% FGs, 38% from the arc), hung tough in a pair of
losses vs. in-state foes Tennessee and Vandy this season. The well-tutored,
mistake-free Badgers (nation’s-fewest 7.6 TOs pg) do own an NBA-caliber
inside-outside tandem in 6-10 Jon Leuer (10 ppg, 7 rpg) and 6-1 jr. Jordan
Taylor (18 ppg, 4 apg). But HC Bo Ryan has had some issues locating a
consistent third scoring option, especially away from the Kohl Center, with
Wiscy going just 4-5 on the Big Ten trail, not to mention its ugly 36-33 loss vs.
Penn State in the opening round of the conference tourney.
Look for Belmont’s bevy of 3-point marksmen (9 treys pg)—featuring jetquick
6-3 soph Ian Clark (12 ppg at 44% from tripleville) and 6-5 swingman
Jordan Campbell (8 ppg at 46% from the arc)—to be a serious concern for a
Badger defense that is surprisingly vulnerable vs. the three-ball, allowing a
whopping 38% (ranking 317th! ). And when the Wiscy defense gets stretchedout,
the Bruins can work the ball inside to solid 6-9 jr. Mick Hedgepeth (11 ppg,
6 rpg) and/or 6-10 C Scott Saunders (10 ppg). With the Badgers possibly
missing top reserve 6-6 soph Mke Bruesewitz (due to knee injury), we envision
havoc-wreaking (force 19 TOs pg), sizzling Belmont to nab its 13th straight
victory and advance to the second round for the first time in school history.
Hammer The Book
COLLEGE BASKETBALL PLAYS
MARCH MADNESS
ROTATION 707/708: 3-UNIT REGULAR: (12:15 PM) CLMSON TIGERS (#12) vs WEST VIRGINIA MOUNTAINEERS (#5) (WEST VA. -2 @ ATLANTIS, RELEASED @ 10:31 AM (ET) 3/17/11)
ROTATION 721/722: 3-UNIT REGULAR: (12:40 PM) OLD DOMINION MONARCHS (#9) vs BUTLER BULLDOGS (#8) (ODU -1 1/2 @ ATLANTIS & THE WYNN, RELEASED @ 10:33 AM (ET) 3/17/11)
ROTATION 723/724: 5-UNIT BOMB: (4:10 PM) RICHMOND SPIDERS (#12) vs VANDERBILT COMMODORES (#5) (VANDY -2 1/2 @ BOOKMAKER, CAESARS, CRIS, JAZZ, MATCHBOOK & MIRAGE RELEASED @ 10:35 AM (ET) 3/17/11)
NHL PLAYS
ROTATION 053/054: 4-UNIT HAMMER: (7:05 PM) PHILADELPHIA FLYERS @ ATLANTA THRASHERS (FLYERS ML PLAY @ THE HILTON, MATCHBOOK, PINNANCLE & THE WYNN, RELEASED @ 10:38 AM (ET) 3/17/11)
ROTATION 059/060: 3-UNIT REGULAR: (7:35 PM) TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING @ MONTREAL CANADIENS (CANADIENS ML PLAY @ BADLANDS, THE HILTON, MATCHOOK, PINNANCLE & THE WYNN, RELEASED @ 10:39 AM (ET) 3/17/11)
COLLEGE BASKETBALL PLAYS
MARCH MADNESS
ROTATION 707/708: 3-UNIT REGULAR: (12:15 PM) CLMSON TIGERS (#12) vs WEST VIRGINIA MOUNTAINEERS (#5) (WEST VA. -2 @ ATLANTIS, RELEASED @ 10:31 AM (ET) 3/17/11)
ROTATION 721/722: 3-UNIT REGULAR: (12:40 PM) OLD DOMINION MONARCHS (#9) vs BUTLER BULLDOGS (#8) (ODU -1 1/2 @ ATLANTIS & THE WYNN, RELEASED @ 10:33 AM (ET) 3/17/11)
ROTATION 723/724: 5-UNIT BOMB: (4:10 PM) RICHMOND SPIDERS (#12) vs VANDERBILT COMMODORES (#5) (VANDY -2 1/2 @ BOOKMAKER, CAESARS, CRIS, JAZZ, MATCHBOOK & MIRAGE RELEASED @ 10:35 AM (ET) 3/17/11)
NHL PLAYS
ROTATION 053/054: 4-UNIT HAMMER: (7:05 PM) PHILADELPHIA FLYERS @ ATLANTA THRASHERS (FLYERS ML PLAY @ THE HILTON, MATCHBOOK, PINNANCLE & THE WYNN, RELEASED @ 10:38 AM (ET) 3/17/11)
ROTATION 059/060: 3-UNIT REGULAR: (7:35 PM) TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING @ MONTREAL CANADIENS (CANADIENS ML PLAY @ BADLANDS, THE HILTON, MATCHOOK, PINNANCLE & THE WYNN, RELEASED @ 10:39 AM (ET) 3/17/11)
