Big Al
BYU
Old Dominion
Louisville
Princeton
Vanderbilt
Florida
Wisconsin
Cincinnati
Bucknell
Temple
At 7:15 pm, our selection is on the BYU Cougars minus the points over Wofford. The Terriers upset Charleston 77-67 to win the Southern Conference Tourney, and off that win fall into a negative system of mine that's 2-27 ATS since 2005 which fades certain NCAA Tourney teams off big wins. BYU, of course, has been hurt by the suspension of Brandon Davies (11.1 ppg; 6.6 rebounds), but his absence has been factored into this pointspread. And Wofford, in my opinion, doesn't have the defense required to keep BYU's Jimmer Fredette -- the nation's leading scorer at 28.5 ppg -- in check. Wofford ranks 193rd among Division 1 teams in defensive efficiency, including 216th in effective FG percentage. That's not going to cut it against a BYU offense that ranks 8th in efficiency. But what makes BYU special is that it can also play defense, as it ranks 38th in efficiency. Based on my numbers, this pointspread is too low. Lay the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
Our 5 selections include Vanderbilt, Princeton, Old Dominion, Temple and Louisville.
At 12:40 pm, our selection is on the Old Dominion Monarchs over Butler. Last season, the Bulldogs made a celebrated run to the Championship game, and we even used them over Michigan State as our College Basketball Game of the Year. But I don't see a Cinderella story in the cards this year. Last season, one of the things I loved about the Bulldogs was that they ranked 5th in defensive efficiency, but this season, they've tumbled all the way down to 76th in that category. Old Dominion ranks much higher at 49th, and are also one of the nation's best rebounding clubs (40.2 rpg; +12.2 rebound margin). Butler falls into a negative 29-66 ATS system of mine based on its back-to-back wins and covers over Cleveland St and Wisconsin-Milwaukee to end its Horizon League season, and it is also a poor 0-6 ATS this year off a double-digit conference win. Take Old Dominion.
At 1:40 pm, our selection is on the Louisville Cardinals minus the points over Morehead St. Louisville was upset by UConn in the Big East Championship game, but that loss will serve as fuel for the Cardinals here as they fall into 37-8 and 67-33 ATS systems of mine which play on certain teams off losses to end their regular season. At this time of year, I really like to play on certain teams with strong defensive efficiency numbers, if the match-up is right, and this one surely fits the bill. Louisville ranks #5 in defensive efficiency, and balances that with the 39th ranked offense (which favors the 3-point shot as a big part of that offense). Louisville's defense should smother a Morehead St. team which ranks 320th in turnover percentage, and its offense should take advantage of a Morehead club that ranks 296th in giving up 3-pointers. Take Louisville.
At 2:10 pm, our selection is on the Temple Owls minus the points over Penn St. Both teams have similar profiles, but Temple has a slight edge on defense, while PSU's edge is on the offensive side of the ball. The Owls come into this game off a 58-53 loss to Richmond in the Atlantic 10 championship game, but won its previous four games (and 12 of 13) before that defeat. And since 1992, .679 (or better) teams off a loss are 65-31 ATS in the first round of the tournament, if they failed to cover the spread by more than 5 points in their previous game, but won and covered two games back, and are priced from +1.5 to -10 points in the current game. But that's not the best part: If our 'play-on' team (here, Temple) lost a close game by six points or less its last time out, then our 65-31 angle zooms to 24-2 ATS including a perfect 15-0 ATS its last 15. Take Temple.
At 2:45 pm, our selection is on the Princeton Tigers plus the points over Kentucky. The Wildcats come into this game off big wins over Florida and Alabama last weekend, but fall into a negative 9-36 ATS system of mine which fades certain favorites off back to back SU/ATS Wins. And since head coach Sydney Johnson took over the Princeton program, the Tigers are a solid 56-38 ATS including 36-19 ATS away from home, and 27-17 ATS as an underdog. Even better: Against foes with a W/L percentage greater than .600, Princeton moves to 17-6 ATS, including 5-0 ATS vs. foes off back to back SU/ATS Wins. Take the points.
At 4:10 pm, our selection is on the Vanderbilt Commodores over Richmond. Richmond is a great shooting team (46% overall; 40% from 3-point range), but that goes into one of Vanderbilt's strengths, which is defending the 3-point shot (Vandy ranks 8th in that regard, holding foes to 29% from long distance). The Spiders have won and covered seven straight, but teams off seven or more ATS wins are 12-35 ATS in tournaments vs. foes not off back to back wins. Take Vanderbilt. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. And don't miss our 3-Game Package (we swept the board, going 3-0 on our last 3-Pack), or our #1 and #2 Plays of the Opening Round, which both go on this Thursday.
Our 3 selections include Florida, Cincinnati and Wisconsin.
At 6:50 pm, our selection is on the Florida Gators minus the points over Cal Santa Barbara. The Gators were the top seed in the SEC Tournament, but fell 70-54 in the Championship round to Kentucky. And one of the things I like to do is play on .680 (or better) teams in the opening round of the NCAA Tourney off a blowout loss to end their regular season. These teams have covered the spread 66% of the time since 1993, including 83% ATS vs. foes off back to back SU/ATS wins! Take Florida.
At 7:25 pm, our selection is on the Wisconsin Badgers minus the points over Belmont. The Bruins have all the characteristics of a low-seeded team that is apt to pull an upset, but the problem with playing them here vs. Wisconsin is that there's not any value in the pointspread. The Badgers always have an efficient offense under coach Bo Ryan, and this year is no different, as Wisky ranks 2nd in the entire country in offensive efficiency (only Ohio St ranks higher), buoyed by the fact it commits just 7.5 turnovers per game (best mark in the country). The Badgers also shoot 82.4% from the free throw line (also tops in the country), so they will be tough to catch in the game's late stages, if they have a lead. Belmont has played just three games this year vs. good teams and, not surprisingly, is 0-3 in those games (it is 30-1 against crap teams). Belmont lost twice this year to Tennessee (85-76 on Nov. 16, and 66-65 on Dec. 23), and once to Vandy (85-76 on Dec. 4). Take Wisconsin.
At 9:50 pm, our selection is on the Cincinnati Bearcats over Missouri. Cincy is ranked 16th in defensive efficiency, and I think the Bearcats could be one of the surprises in this tournament. In the rugged Big East, they finished on a 6-2 run, including two double-digit wins over Georgetown, and seven and nine-point wins over Marquette and Louisville, respectively. The Bearcats also are balanced (another trait I look for in this tourney), with just one glaring weakness, and that's free throw shooting (66.6%, 254th in country). But that's not a major cause for concern. Missouri was dreadful down the stretch in the Big 12, as it lost four of its final five games, including three by double digits). And in the Tigers' last 14 games (they went 7-7), they were an awful 0-5 vs. Tourney teams, with the average margin of defeat 11.8 ppg). Take Cincy. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
