VegasButcher (NBA)
Charlotte Hornets +2
This is a rematch between the two teams as they’ve faced off against one another on Monday. The difference of course was that Hornets rested since then, while the Wizards had a game @ ATL last night. Washington is on a b2b and 3in4 spot here and with both Beal and Wall playing 39 minutes each, fatigue could be an issue. It could be an even bigger factor against a defensive-minded Hornets squad. Charlotte has held their opponents to 98 points or less in 14 of the last 15 games, and I expect the same level of defensive effort tonight. When the two teams met on Monday, Washington shot 41% from the field while losing 92-88 at home. The average margin in that one was +5.2 CHA, which was clearly a better team. Now in the rematch I like Charlotte’s chances to once again limit Washington offensively and to extend the Wizards ATS-slide to 9 consecutive games.
Sacramento Kings +3.5
Let’s look at Dallas’ schedule in 2015:
@ BOS; @ CLE; @ BKN
Home vs DET
@ LAC; @ SAC; @ DEN
Home vs DEN
@ MEM; @ Min
Home vs CHI
@ NOP
Home vs MEM
@ HOU; @ MIA; @ ORL
Home vs MIN
@ GSW; @ SAC tonight
Dallas played 19 games in 2015, and they have had exactly ZERO games in the same location during that span. They’ve only played 5 home games during this stretch and zero consecutive ones. That’s as brutal of a schedule as I’ve seen, as the Mavs have been constantly on the road flying from city to city over this 36-day period. After tonight’s game at Sacramento, they’ll have a 3-game home stand followed by the All-Star break, giving the Mavs two full weeks in Dallas. I’m sure going home can’t come fast enough for these players. Tonight, they’re on a b2b, 3in4, and a brutal 7th game in 10 nights spot. After getting out to a 17-point 1st quarter lead @ GSW last night, Dallas got outscored 103 to 72 the rest of the way and proceeded to get blown-out. Of course that forced all of their key guys to play major minutes (Ellis 39, Parsons 38, Chandler 34, Dirk 30). Tonight they’ll go up against a Kings team that is looking to avoid getting swept by the Mavs on the season. Dallas won by 8 at home very early in the season, a game where Collison didn’t play. They also barely won @ Sacramento on 01/13, needing OT to get a close 4-point victory. While Collison played in that one, Rudy Gay only logged 10 minutes after sustaining a knee injury. Tonight, the Kings will be fully healthy for the first time in this matchup. Cousins was an absolute monster in the last meeting, going for 32 points, 16 rebounds, and 9 assists. I expect him to be just as dominant tonight. Dallas of course is without Rondo, so they’re less efficient overall. Combine that with a really tough scheduling spot, and I like the Kings’ chances at home tonight.
Portland Trail Blazers -4.5
With Robin Lopez rejoining the Blazers, they should have a distinct size advantage here. Basketball is played by very big people for a reason and I think Blazers have it at most positions on the floor. Lopez and Kaman are too big for Len/Plumlee to handle at center. Aldridge is a really tough matchup for the Morris brothers. Lillard is bigger and stronger than Dragic. Batum is two inches taller than Tucker. And Matthews is 4 inches taller than Bledsoe as both shooting guards have very similar build. Physically, I believe Portland has a huge advantage in this matchup. Combine that with the #3 ranked defense (#2 in eFG%-allowed), superior rebounding, and ‘revenge’ in play (lost to PHX when Aldridge was out), and I like Portland to have a very strong shot of dominating this game. Throw in the fact that Portland is an excellent offensive team, especially at home, and I believer Phoenix needs to play at a near-perfect level to have a shot in this one.