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Jack’s Free Pick Thursday: Iowa Hawkeyes -2 at 5Dimes
[/h]After losing three straight coming in to fall to 13-8, the Iowa Hawkeyes are in major need of a signature road win to boost their NCAA Tournament hopes. I fully expect them to get the job done tonight against the short-handed Michigan Wolverines.
While it’s concerning that Iowa has lost three in a row, keep in mind that it was an underdog in all three games, and two of them came against the league’s top team in the Wisconsin Badgers. So, I’m not concerned one bit about this losing streak.
The Hawkeyes have actually played their best basketball on the road this season. They are 3-2 in true road games with their only losses coming to Wisconsin and Purdue. They have beatn UNC 60-55 as 7.5-point road dogs, Ohio State 71-65 as 7-point road dogs, and Minnesota 77-75 as 3-point road dogs.
Yes, the Wolverines have somehow managed to play well here recently without some key players. They are 4-0 ATS in thier last four games overall, including overtime losses to both Wisconsin and Michigan State. They also beat Nebraska by 14 at home and Rutgers by 4 on the road.
Teams can play well without their best players for a few games, but over time, it starts to add up. The Wolverines are without leading scorer Caris LeVert (14.9 ppg) and third-leading scorer Derrick Walton Jr. (10.7 ppg). They now only have one player (Zak Irivn, 13.5 PPG) available to play who averages more than 6.5 points per game this season.
Iowa is 8-1 ATS when the total is 129.5 or less over the last three seasons. The Hawkeyes are 17-7 ATS versus teams who attempt 21 or more 3-point shots per game over the last three years. I look for them to put an end to this 3-game skid tonight and to come away with a big road win over the Wolverines. Bet Iowa Thursday.