Service Plays Thursday 2/4/10

[CHEXMIX]

Jim Hurley Network

Stanford Cardinal

Cincinnati Bearcats

Tennessee Vols

Yesterday 2-1-1 ( push on UTEP -7) 4-5-1 for Feb.

No root can follow :howdy:

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

BIGFELLA

NCABB

Va Tech -3 5*

USC PK 5*


NBA

Cavs -10 3*

 

[Stu Padasso]

Dave Swished a couple more heartbreakers for his clients with another 0-3-1
record on Wed Night

Dave is promising a big 6* play for us on the thursday card


Dave Malinsky Reports this to his clients

Some days it is awfully difficult to find the words, and on top of some brutal rolls of the dice of late Wednesday produces such a feeling. We will put last night's San Antonio ending up at the Hall of Fame level, after the Kings made three 3-point shots in the final seven seconds (that is correct, three triples in the final seven seconds) to lead to a bitter back-door defeat, only to see that late scramble in Los Angeles add another a few moments later, when Flip Murray's triple at the buzzer turned another result around (if Jordan Farmar dribbles out instead of dunking that one falls at 191). And of course Evansville fouling down by 11 in a dribble-out situation at Creighton did not help. It has simply been a once in a lifetime cycle

The last line is not true at all. Dave has had many implosions of this magnitude over the past 5 years.... its the short dick short memory syndrome.

Dave Malinsky is

- 24.6 units the first 3 Days of February

-102.4 units in the NBA Year to date

-76.2 units in CBB year to date


More swishes to come Thursday morning

but lets all enjoy Daves Superbowl selection



4* #101 NEW ORLEANS over INDIANAPOLIS

It is absolutely no secret what the numbers ?3? and ?4? are worth in
the NFL. When they are established as win numbers in a competitive
game it means that we have a lot going for us, and it is the process
that made those numbers available of the New Orleans side of this
equation that has created extreme value for this game.

There was a lot of discussion on the day of the Conference
Championship games as to where the Super Bowl would open, and the
back-room consensus was a -2.5 with the Colts over either the Saints
or Vikings, or a -3 that would be shaded via the money line towards
the underdogs. Our own contribution to the processes was that it was
the proper range, based on nearly five months of watching the teams
play. And once Indianapolis had the Jets firmly in hand, we saw one
of the strongest stores open the game at -2.5 for a while, before
taking it down when the Vikings/Saints kicked off. It was a good
line. Indianapolis has had a special season from Peyton Manning (back
in an October ?Verities & Balderdash? column we were noting
that he was playing as well as any QB we had ever charted), and
deserved the role of the slight favorite, but the Colts are not an
overpowering side.

So fast forward and the markets are sitting at -5, with our hopes of
getting +6?s negated by Dwight Freeney likely to be only a minimal
factor on Sunday. The +3 and +4 have turned into New Orleans ?win?
tickets, not necessarily because of what had happened over the course
of the season, but rather the fact that the Saints appeared to be as
much lucky as good in escaping vs. Minnesota. That is an awfully big
adjustment off of a single result, but as is so often the case, the
markets can be overly influenced by what they saw last. So what is
the proper context? We do not know who the better team is, and one
side has been established as a substantial favorite despite the fact
that their ground game is much weaker, and that they are going to
have a difficult time getting the opposing offense off the field.

Manning has been absolutely brilliant this season, overcoming the
absence of a reliable ground game (that is an understatement, with
the Colts gaining 129 fewer yards overland than any team in the
league, with only the Chargers getting less per attempt), and a lack
of depth and experience in the receiving corps. It was his savvy that
led to a remarkable run of 7-0 in games decided by four points or
less, and they compiled six wins in single digits against opponents
that did not make the playoffs. This is a team that does not have
much margin for error, especially with Freeney?s lessened status
taking away a key cog defensively, and their reputation is in
conflict with their reality in terms of the public perceptions in the
upward surge of this line.

So let?s go to the matchups. The overall defensive numbers for the
Saints are not special because of a weakness against the run, but
that soft spot will not be exposed here. What this group does do is
generate a pass rush and make plays, with 35 sacks and a sparkling
ratio of 26 interceptions vs. only 15 TD passes allowed. And most
important for our purposes, those numbers were not just piled up with
big leads against weak opponents. Down the stretch and in the
playoffs they faced Tom Brady, Kurt Warner and Brett Favre, and in
those three games generated 10 turnovers, and a fantastic ratio of
five interceptions vs. only two TD passes allowed. You do not expect
Manning to be forced into mistakes, but the same can be said about
those other three savvy veterans that struggled so much vs. this
defense.

When the Saints have the ball it is a different story. Consider this
pointspread in light of a team that ran for over 2,000 (#4 in the
NFL) yards at 4.5 per carry vs. a defense that allowed over 2,000
(#24) at 4.3. That matchup provides an awful lot of leverage for Drew
Brees and the passing game, creating extra time in the pocket via
play action, and then it is Brees and his 70.6 percent accuracy vs. a
defense that allowed 63.8. And with Freeney unlikely to be a
significant factor (as a speed rusher that ankle injury takes away
the heart of his game), we expect to see the Indy defense on their
heels throughout. While their overall numbers in the regular season
were respectable they did not face a lot of major challenges, and
were nothing special when they did have to step up (like the 34
points and 477 yards they allowed to Brady and the Patriots). And
while the Saints were having to deal with Warner and Favre in the
playoffs, Indy faced Joe Flacco and Mark Sanchez, with the gap in
experience between those duos about as wide as can be possible.

The bottom line is that the Colts do not bring advantages anywhere
near what this pointspread indicates, and even past experience is not
a huge factor, with only 19 players on this roster holdovers from
their Super Bowl win on this field four years ago. This is absolutely
anyone?s game to win outright, and it would be no surprise at all to
see Brees and all of those New Orleans weapons in the skill positions
dictate the flow throughout against a favorite that brings holes that
can be exploited.

4* #509 DETROIT over BUTLER

Detroit is the absolute classic definition of a ?Tough Out?, a team
that does not bring the kind of sex appeal that the markets
acknowledge in their ratings, but one that plays hard and with grit
that means a difficult time for the opposition to get any kind of
margin. That is what happens when you have size, athleticism, depth
and experience. And it has all played out on the court the way that
it should ? in going 7-4 in Horizon League play the four defeats were
by a combined eight points at the end of regulation, and both their
defense and boardwork are the best in the loop, allowing 38.7 percent
shooting, 28.4 on triples, with the opposition -35 in assists to
turnovers, and the Titans are a +6.6 in rebounding.

We can add something else for tonight ? Detroit is hungry. It has
been nearly a month since the Titans suffered a bitter 64-62 overtime
loss to Butler at home, when the Bulldogs had to score last to get it
to the extra period, a game in which they played outstanding defense
and won the battle of the boards 33-24 despite the fact that key
inside cog Eli Holman was limited to just 20 minutes on the court
before fouling out. Now they bring a major level of intensity for the
rematch, and have also had a chance for new faces like Holman and
Chase Simon (averaging 17.2 per game in conference play) to acclimate
even more, making them a flat out better team than in the first
meeting.

As always, Butler brings a lot of polish to the table, but without
much size or depth it forces an extreme level of efficiency to get
this kind of margin against a team that brings Detroit?s components.
The Titans bring the better numbers across the board defensively and
in rebounding, and this pointspread range is rarely available when
that is the case, especially when there is not much tempo to create
opportunities for the favorite to get a margin.



5* #521 FLORIDA over ALABAMA

Alabama is anything but a Superman of a basketball team, but from a
conceptual standpoint we can put the Crimson Tide at that level to
break this one down, because in this case the matchups are all
Kryptonite for Anthony Grant and his team. As one would expect under
Grant, this is a team that plays with passion and defends
tenaciously, and that means the ability to grind down lesser
opponents. But being in the role of the favorite when stepping up in
class, and particularly going against what Florida will throw at them
tonight, is all wrong.

Alabama must have two things happening to be successful ? the Crimson
Tide need to be able to get easy shots off of turnovers, many of
which they will miss anyway; and they need to be able to use their
athleticism to drive the ball to the basket. Those elements go away
here. With solid ball-handlers throughout the lineup the Gators are
one of the toughest teams to press in the SEC, with a terrific count
of only 81 turnovers through seven league games (to go with 103
assists). And given that so much of the Grant pressing schemes came
from what he learned in his 12 years as an assistant under Billy
Donovan, Florida will not run into many surprises.

So what happens when there are no turnovers vs. the presses? The Tide
must find a way to score in their half-court sets, and this is where
it gets really ugly ? they are simply not built to play well against
zone defenses. And that is exactly what the Gators are making a
bigger part of their packages these days, something that Grant will
not have learned from Donovan because many of these looks are new.
There are going to be a lot of possessions in which Alabama goes deep
into the shot clock and still does not find anything, and the less
efficient the Tide are on offense the fewer chances there are to set
up the presses. It all goes hand in hand. That opens the door for the
more polished team to gradually take control of these proceedings,
and a big edge at the free throw line (73.7 percent vs. 65.2 in SEC
play) helps to keep the flow in hand.



6* #536 VALPARAISO over WRIGHT STATE

Reputation vs. Reality? Rarely do we have a clearer case of the
concept than here. Through 11 Horizon League games for each team
there is simply no indication that Wright State is even the better
team, much less one that is favored by this kind of margin on the
road, particularly with tempo being factored, which brings ?Degree of
Dominance? into plat. That means time to step things up with an
underdog that brings a lot of momentum and confidence, and also the
kind of chip on their shoulder that can lead to winning this game
outright.

Here is how they stack up in conference play ? Wright State is 7-4
and Valparaiso 6-5. Wright has been out-scored by four points in
those games, Valparaiso is at +20. Homer Drew?s Crusaders have shot
much better (47.1 percent vs. 41.0 from the field and 41.3 vs. 32.6
beyond the arc) and defended nearly as well (42.3 vs. 41.1, 34.4 vs.
34.0 on triples). And note that this has come with Valparaiso playing
seven of 11 league games on the road, while it has been six of 11 for
Wright at home. How about head-to-head? That is what sets up the
special level of passion for Homer Drew?s team tonight.

The Crusaders led the Raiders 57-48 on the road with 7:09 to play in
the first go-round, and did not score the rest of the way in a
haunting 59-57 defeat. That stings. But it is what can happen to a
young team that started the season with seven new faces on the
roster. They are not so young any more. Having played at North
Carolina, Michigan State, Butler and Purdue by December 9th they have
had a chance to accelerate their development, and that is what has
shown in a solid 3-1 SU and 4-0 ATS run on the conference road the
last two weeks. Yet the markets can not catch up, because those road
losses vs. elite programs for a team that was not yet ready for prime
time carry more weight in the power ratings than they should.

Over the course of Horizon conference play Valparaiso has been every
bit as good as Wright State, and the Crusaders still have not played
their best basketball yet. With newcomers Bandon Webb (leads the
league in scoring at 18.6) and Cory Johnson (15.7) having fully
assimilated now they have the two best scorers on the court, and a
one-two punch that brings the confidence to win this game outright.
Their only losses in the past seven games were the previously
mentioned two-point defeat vs. Wright in Dayton, and that 85-82 loss
to Wisconsin-Milwaukee on a three-point at the buzzer. They stay
alive again here vs. a Wright squad that is just 1-6 ATS as a road
favorite this season, lacking the punch to get anything easily, and
with that revenge showdown at Butler in front of the ESPN2 cameras
coming up on Saturday night the Raiders are more than ripe for that
outright upset.

 

[RawAdreneline]

Mark Roth

2-1 Yesterday +9 Units
5-3 This Week +17 Units

10 Units Tennessee (-6)
10 Units San Antonio (-2)
10 Units Notre Dame (-3)

Good Luck

 

[Pepi]

Deano

Had to post his play for you guys tonight since its TNT Thursday! Good luck with whoever you roll with. This is what Deano has in his Agent package: :toast:



*Deano's HRC Smart Choice* Best Bets|Your Capping Agent-February 4th*

Capper: Deano (Handicappers Paradise)

-=HIGH ROLLER CLUB AGENT ALERT=-

••DEANO'S SHARP MONEY ALERT••
(If Indicated)

*Figure In Juice*
=============================
(♦) = % of bankroll and/or Units Recomended
=============================
*******************************

[503] San Antonio |4♦|-1.5|B+0|TNT|10:30 pm EST

►Note: We are 30-11 on 4♦ & up◄

Solid play tonight. There is a couple of key factors that stop this play from being a higher dimed play. Since they do apply, we will play this tonight as a 4♦
If your looking for some action tonight on the TNT network. I think a nice 1 unit parlay with the Cavs and Spurs would fit nicely. If you decide to go that route, go ahead and buy 3 in that parlay on the Cavs. This parlay is not a posted/documented parlay. Since we are up nice this year, a 1 unit wager wouldn't hurt you if you decide to go that route. ~Deano~
*******************************

Estimate: +94♦

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Ben Burns

7* Columbus Blue jackets -130
6* Boston Bruins-160
6* nashville Prdators
10* Personal favorite Notre Dame
9* UNDER San Antonia/Spurs
10* San Antonio Sours -1.5

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Big AL

3* kent State
3* Washington State

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

RIGHT ANGLE SPORTS (RAS)

1* Arkansas State Red Wolves, +2.5
1* California State Fullerton Titans (UC-Fullerton), +6
1* Eastern Michigan Eagles, +4
1* Ohio Bobcats, Under 129.5
1* University California Riverside Highlanders (UC Riverside), -3
1.5* University California Davis Aggies (UC Davis), -5

 

[whitelightning]

Jimmy Boyd
3* Detroit +16
5* Duke -12.5 Game of the Month
3* NBA Miami Heat +10

 

[daboyzinblue]

RAS


Middle Tenn St. un 135.5

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

The Consensus Pick

Pick of the Day: Florida +2 (-110) [NCAA-BB]

Free Pick: Georgia Tech +12 (-110) [NCAA-BB]

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Youngstown Connection
Date: Thursday, February 4, 2010
NCAA Play #2
Loyola Chicago -3.5*8PM Eastern
Line as of 2PM Eastern 2/4/10

 

[brewerfan003]

ive seen tons of posts for root
why don't you all get your $ together and buy him!

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

ATS LOCK CLUB

5 Detroit
4 Zona
3 C Mich

NHL
4 TB
3 Anaheim under

 

[Grysportowe]

vegas-runner | CBB Sides Thu, 02/04/10 - 7:00 PM –
double-dime bet 505 Purdue -12.5 (-110) BetUS vs 506 Indiana
Analysis: ** CBB 2* LATE STEAM **

©2010 Pregame.com - All rights reserved. Unauthorized distribution, transmission or republication strictly prohibited.

vegas-runner | CBB Sides Thu, 02/04/10 - 8:00 PM –
double-dime bet 535 Wright St -5.5 (-110) Bodog vs 536 Valparaiso
Analysis: ** CBB 2* LATE STEAM **

©2010 Pregame.com - All rights reserved. Unauthorized distribution, transmission or republication strictly prohibited.

vegas-runner | CBB Sides Thu, 02/04/10 - 9:00 PM –
triple-dime bet 545 Cincinnati 3.5 (-110) Bodog vs 546 NotreDame
Analysis:

*** CBB 3* BOOKIE BET *** (Confirmed "BIG SLICK BET" by Bookie Bill)

Fellas, we are able to get an even BETTER number than Bill's Slick got when he took +3...Because Bodog is currently using +3.5...and I've seen more books adjust for all that publi¬c money on this Prime-Time game...VR


©2010 Pregame.com - All rights reserved. Unauthorized distribution, transmission or republication strictly prohibited.

vegas-runner | CBB Sides Thu, 02/04/10 - 7:00 PM –
double-dime bet 514 E. Mich 4.0 (-110) Bodog vs 513 Kent St.
Analysis: ** CBB 2* PERSONA›L PLAY ** (Confirmed Late)

©2010 Pregame.com - All rights reserved. Unauthorized distribution, transmission or republication strictly prohibited.

vegas-runner | CBB Sides Thu, 02/04/10 - 7:00 PM –
double-dime bet 508 Duke -12.5 (-110) SportBet vs 507 Georgia Tech
Analysis: –** CBB on ESPN 2* LATE STEAM **

©2010 Pregame.com - All rights reserved. Unauthorized distribution, transmission or republication strictly prohibited.

vegas-runner | CBB Sides Thu, 02/04/10 - 9:00 PM –
double-dime bet 550 LSU 7.0 (-110) Bodog vs 549 Tennessee
Analysis: ’

** CBB on ESPN 2* LATE STEAM **

 

[Grysportowe]

vegas-runner | CBB Sides Thu, 02/04/10 - 8:30 PM –
double-dime bet 586 Tenn.-Martin 10.0 (-110) Bodog vs 585 Austin Peay
Analysis: ** CBB 2* LA�TE STEAM **

 

[ballZZZ]

Billy Coleman...
3* FLORIDA

 

[THECHICAGOCONNECTION]

ChicagoSportsConnection

ChicagoSportsConnection

TWO 5* plays tonight and PARLAY the same two.

ncaab

5***** #509 DETROIT +16 @ Butler.........7:00 ET
DET is 10-7 in thier last 17 games.
The seven losses were by 2-2-2-4-11-1 & 2 points

5***** #536 VALPARAISO +6 VS WrightSt..8:00 et
WRIGHT 3-7 on road.
VALPO playing very good right now.

2** PARLAY same two...DETROIT and VALPO


GL2us
ChicagoSportsConnection.




Star Ratings
1*......1/4 unit
2*......1/2 unit
3*......3/4 unit
4*.........1 unit
5*...1&1/4 units
6*...1&1/2 units
7*...1&3/4 units
8*.........2 units

 

[stuckforever]

spartan 3* austin peay
paid and confirmed

 

[wino]

Sometimes I really hate being right.. AJFODF(*FWFE$E!@&*$#r_...

Oh well.. Going to ride it out I guess.. How bout 1 more loss for the slicks?

Nope, never happens that way. Pound Cincy guys. I was on the last 3 Slick bet losers, and now I'm essentially fading this one without a choice. Expect a Cincy outright win. Story of my life.

Big slick(CINN) against 25* Primetime (ND)....hmmm! Prime is 7-1 this week.