Date: Thursday, February 04, 2010
$35.00 Guaranteed: After a 2-0 Tuesday Sweep Matt settled for a 1-1 Wednesday split in CBB but he won yet again with his 10* TOP Report on Marshall as he is now an OUTSTANDING 15-5-2 ATS (75%) YTD with his 10* TOP Reports! He is a TREMENDOUS 20-9-1 ATS (69%) L30 in CBB and Thursday presents another MASSIVE 10* TOP opportunity from the Pac 10! Hammer it! The COLOSSAL run keeps going tonight! Guaranteed! 2/4/2010
This is likely going to be a pretty popular publicly backed play however the situation calls for it in this instance. The Pac Ten is a mess right now. It may be considered a good mess by some because of the parity but in my opinion it is loaded with mediocre teams that don’t deserve to be where they currently stand. However, California is not one of those as the Golden Bears are the class of the conference. We knew this coming into the season and a couple more wins this weekend could provide some needed breathing room. California is 6-3 in the conference which is good for a tie with Arizona, a game lead over two teams, a two-game lead over five teams and a three-game lead over last place Oregon St. so it is still currently anyone’s conference. This is where the cream rises to the top however and the Golden Bears will gather some distance here. They could easily be 8-1 in the conference but a brutal one-point loss at home against UCLA in overtime and a four-poin6t loss last time out at Arizona has kept them within reach by the other teams. The loss against the Wildcats was particularly frustrating as California shot just 37.7 percent from the floor, close to 10 percent below its season average and Arizona is not that great on defense. The game was basically lost in the final seconds and I do like the bounce back possibility here on the road where the Golden Bears are 3-4 on the year with the other losses coming at Kansas, New Mexico and Washington who are a combined 39-2 on their home floors. This senior laden team knows the importance of this game. Ever since the infractions were handed down to USC, the Trojans have taken a big step backward and how can you blame them? They found out they are not eligible for the postseason and that includes the Pac Ten Tournament, so playing with a little less inspiration and motivation is clearly understandable. In their first two games after being informed they are ineligible for the postseason, they lost to California and Stanford, rebounded with an historic win over UCLA as it came by 21 points at Pauley Pavilion, but has since lost three of four games which has put them into a logjam of five teams sharing fifth through ninth place. USC has struggled mightily on offense as it has scored 60 points or fewer in 15 of 21 games this season and that is becoming a real issue in conference action. The defense has kept things close but that defense will have another test here with one of the best shooting teams around. USC is 3-1 in its four home games in the Pac Ten but two of those games were prior to when the infractions were handed down. Looking at the matchup shows the Golden Bears with a huge advantage in assist/turnover ratio and that should be the case with a veteran team against a young team. California has a 1.17 ratio which is very solid considering it has played the nations 10th toughest schedule this season. USC meanwhile has a ratio of 0.66 which is tied for 326th in the country and is easily the worst of any team from a major conference. The Golden Bears are usually solid from the free throw line as well and that is the case again this season as they are hitting 74.4 percent, good for 21st in the country while USC is hitting just 65.1 percent, 278th in the nation, and that drops to 62.8 percent over the last five games. Those are two huge edges for California tonight. California also falls into a great situation. Play against underdogs with a winning record on the season of less than .600 that are coming off two or more consecutive losses as a favorite playing team with a winning record. This situation is 46-18 ATS (71.9 percent) since 1997 with the average point differential being +11.8 ppg. 10* (563) California Golden Bears
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