Cajun-Sports CFB Executive- Thursday
THURSDAY 12/04/2008
7:45 PM EST – ESPN
2 STAR SELECTION
RUTGERS –10 over Louisville
A couple of teams going in opposite directions collide Thursday night when the slumping Cardinals travel to New Jersey to face the streaking Scarlet Knights.
With just a 5-6 overall mark, Louisville is in serious danger of posting its first losing season since finishing an ugly 1-10 in 1997. The Cardinals find themselves in this position courtesy of a four-game losing streak.
On the other side of the field, Rutgers is the hottest team in the Big East right now having won FIVE straight games. The current win streak has helped the team overcome a poor start to the season and become bowl-eligible for the fourth year in a row, although they are looking for a final regular season victory to make it certain.
Louisville is averaging a respectable 382 total ypg, but they have had issues hanging onto the ball, committing 28 turnovers on the year. In its last game, Louisville rolled up 474 yards of total offense, but it wasn't enough to compensate for its five turnovers in a loss to West Virginia. Hunter Cantwell threw three picks and lost a fumble in the setback and he completed only 27-of-47 tosses for 276 yards and a touchdown.
Defensively, Louisville has struggled down the stretch and is now allowing 27 ppg and 341 total ypg on the season. The unit's biggest problem has been its inability to slow down opposing pass attack, yielding over 220 ypg and 19 touchdowns through the air. That spells BIG trouble here because that plays right into the Knights offensive strength.
After a slow start to the season, Rutgers' offense has started to come on strong and is now averaging 26 ppg and 370 total ypg. In the last 4 games, they have averaged better than 44 ppg! QB Mike Teel's play down the stretch has played a big part in the team's success and he has now completed 60% of his throws, with 16 touchdowns against 12 picks on the year.
On defense, the Knights have been pretty sound for much of the season and are limiting foes to less than 19 ppg and 325 total ypg. The unit has really clamped down against the pass, yielding only 177 ypg and eight touchdowns through the air. Teel and his talented receiving crew will be licking their chops, as the Cardinals are so banged up in the secondary that they're down to the third name on the depth chart at free safety and are missing half of their starting back 4.
A handicapping strategy we’ll employ here is to play AGAINST a team suffering from a cluster of injuries. If a defense or offense is missing several starters all at once, the team can be very vulnerable to fatigue in addition to being unable to replace the absent talent. A team with a single unit that is missing several key starters and reserves, such as an offensive line without 2+ starters or a defensive backfield missing its top cornerbacks, also figures to struggle. Here, we get a red-hot Rutgers passing attack going against a crippled Louisville secondary.
Not only have the Cardinals lost all 4 of their recent games, they are 0-4 ATS in those games, as well as 0-4 SU & ATS last 2 years as an underdog off a SU loss.
Off 3 losses, non-Saturday road underdogs of more than 4 points have played with little confidence against opponents off a win.
Their recent skid also qualifies them for an NCAA Football POWER SYSTEM which states:
From Game 4 on, play AGAINST a non-Saturday road underdog off 3 SU losses and scoring less than 42 points in its last game vs. an opponent off a SU win of 3+ points.
Such teams are now 0-15 SU & ATS since at least 1980.
Meanwhile, Rutgers is 5-0 ATS with revenge vs. .500% or worse opponents, not to mention 7-0-1 ATS in their last 8 games.
The Knights also are active for a POWER SYSTEM, as teams finishing the season at home and surging on offense over their last 4 games have been unbeatable. Specifically:
In its Final Game, play ON a home team off scoring an average of 44+ points in its last 4 games.
Perfect since at least 1980, these teams are 14-0 SU (+30.2 ppg) & ATS (+13.6 ppg), including Boise State’s thrashing of Fresno State last week, in which the Broncos beat the Bulldogs by 41 points to cover the number by 20 points.
We don’t expect a win here by any such magnitude. With a flicker of a bowl eligibility in front of them, we do expect the Cardinals to come out fighting here, but they will likely make enough mistakes that will be capitalized on by the home team, allowing Rutgers to get the SU & ATS win.
PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: RUTGERS 27 LOUISVILLE 14
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