SPORTS ADVISORS
Oakland (3-9, 5-7 ATS) at San Diego (4-8, 4-7-1 ATS)
The Chargers, who have all but played their way out of playoff contention with three straight losses, take on the AFC West rival Raiders at Qualcomm Stadium.
San Diego lost to Atlanta 22-16 Sunday as a 6½-point home chalk for its third consecutive SU setback and second straight ATS defeat. QB Philip Rivers (17 of 30, 149 yards, 0 TDs, 0 INTs) was sacked three times and had the least-productive home game of his career as the Chargers generated a measly 201 total yards. The San Diego defense allowed 348 yards, and although the Chargers won the turnover battle 3-0, they finished with a 10-minute time-of-possession deficit.
One week after a stunning 31-10 victory at first-place Denver, Oakland came crashing back to earth in a 20-13 loss to one-win Kansas City as a three-point home favorite, halting a two-game ATS uptick. QB JaMarcus Russell (10 of 28, 132 yards, 0 TDs, 0 INTs) was ineffective, and although the Raiders finished with just 30 fewer yards than the Chiefs (301-271), they held the ball for less than 25 minutes. Oakland also lost the turnover battle 2-1, including a fumble on a fake field-goal attempt that was returned 67 yards for a second-quarter touchdown.
San Diego is riding a 10-game winning streak against the Raiders (9-1 ATS, all as the favorite), including a 28-18 victory in September as a nine-point road chalk. In that victory, the Chargers rallied from a 15-0 halftime deficit and got the spread-cover after RB LaDainian Tomlinson broke off a 41-yard TD run with a little more than a minute to play. The road team is 4-1 ATS in the last five contests in this rivalry, but San Diego is on a 10-1 ATS run overall and is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings at Qualcomm.
The Chargers have scored 20 points or fewer in four straight games and six of their last eight, and over the past three contests they’re averaging just 15.3 points and 269.3 total yards per game. By comparison, Oakland is netting 19.7 points and 258.3 total yards in its last three games. On the defensive side of the ball, the Raiders are giving up 22.1 points and 351 total yards per game this season (192.2 passing ypg), while the Chargers are surrendering 22.8 points and 367.6 total yards per outing (260.2 passing ypg).
The Chargers are on a 1-5 SU and ATS freefall and are on an 0-4 ATS skid following a SU loss, but they still carry positive ATS trends of 9-4 at home, 5-0 in December, 16-5-1 against AFC foes and 20-7-4 versus the AFC West. The Raiders are actually 7-1 ATS in their last eight divisional road games, but otherwise they remain on lengthy pointspread declines of 17-39 in December, 18-39-1 after a non-cover, 19-40-1 against losing teams and 22-45-1 after a SU loss.
The under for San Diego is on stretches of 4-0 overall, 4-0 at home and 6-0 against the AFC, and the under for Oakland is on runs of 5-0 overall, 4-1 against AFC teams, 16-7 versus the AFC West and 46-22-4 after a SU loss. Finally, in this rivalry, the total has stayed low in six of the last eight meetings overall and seven of the last eight in San Diego.
ATS ADVANTAGE: SAN DIEGO and UNDER
COLLEGE FOOTBALL
Louisville (5-6, 4-6 ATS) at Rutgers (6-5, 7-3 ATS)
Two teams heading in opposite directions close out the regular season when Rutgers plays host to Louisville in the Big East finale for both teams.
Rutgers flattened Army 30-3 two weekends ago as an 18-point chalk for its fifth consecutive SU victory. The Scarlet Knights have cashed in their last four games, outscoring those foes by a combined total of 168-70. Against Army, Rutgers racked up a 521-219 bulge in total yards, with senior QB Mike Teel (23 of 33, 359 yards, 1 TD) leading the way. Teel has thrown 13 TDs against five INTs during the Knights’ five-game winning streak
Louisville fell to West Virginia 35-21 two Saturdays ago catching 6½ points at home and is now on an 0-4 SU and ATS slide. The Cardinals kept pace in the yardage department, gaining 474 yards while allowing 498, but they turned the ball over five times, including three INTs from QB Hunter Cantwell (27 of 47, 276 yards, 1 TD), who now has as many INTs this season (15) as TD passes. Louisville also allowed West Virginia to rush for a whopping 376 yards.
The SU winner is 10-0 ATS in Louisville’s 10 lined games this season and 12-0 ATS going back to last year.
Louisville is 2-1 SU and ATS in three Big East meetings with Rutgers, including a 41-38 home win as a 2½-point favorite last season. The home team won and covered all three meetings.
The Scarlet Knights are on a bevy of pointspread streaks, including 6-1 overall, 5-1 in Big East play, 4-1 after an ATS win and 14-6 against losing teams. The Cardinals are on a 5-0 ATS run coming off a bye, but otherwise they’re on pointspread slides of 1-4 against winning teams, 2-5 after a SU loss, 5-12 on grass and 3-7 after a double-digit home defeat.
The over for Rutgers is on runs of 11-1 following a bye, 6-1 in Thursday contests and 10-4 after a SU win, and the over for Louisville is on tears of 6-0 after a week off, 5-0 on Thursday, 5-1 after a SU loss and 5-1 after a non-cover. Also, the last two meetings in this rivalry have topped the total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: RUTGERS and OVER
NBA
Phoenix (11-8, 8-11 ATS) at Dallas (9-8, 8-9 ATS)
The Suns concludes a brief two-game Southwest Division road trip when they visit American Airlines Center for a matchup with the Mavericks.
Playing without point guard Steve Nash and center Shaquille O’Neal, Phoenix tumbled at New Orleans on Wednesday 104-91, falling short as a nine-point underdog. The Suns have now lost three straight games (0-3 ATS), all by double digits. On the bright side, Phoenix is still 7-3 SU on the highway this season, but after starting out 4-1 ATS on the road, it has failed to cover in four of its last five as a visitor.
The surging Mavericks overcame a 13-point fourth-quarter deficit on Tuesday and slipped past the Clippers 100-98, failing to cash as an 11-point home favorite, Dallas has won seven of its last eight (6-2 ATS), including three straight at home (1-2 ATS). However, Rick Carlisle’s team is just 3-4 on its home court so far, going 1-6 ATS.
These rivals have split their last six meetings, with Phoenix going 4-1-1 ATS during this stretch. Last year, Dallas took two of three (1-1-1 ATS), including a 108-105 victory as a three-point favorite in the only meeting at American Airlines Center. Also, the underdog and road team are both 5-2-1 ATS in the last seven series meetings, and the Suns are 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven trips to Dallas.
The Suns are 12-6 ATS in their last 18 games after a non-cover, but otherwise the trends are all negative for Terry Porter’s team, including 3-9 overall, 2-7 against the Western Conference and 2-6-1 against the Southwest Division. Dallas is 4-1 ATS in its last five against the Western Conference, but 7-21-1 ATS in its last 29 games in the Thursday night spotlight.
For the Suns, the under is on runs of 6-2 against the Western Conference and 9-4 in their last 13 on Thursdays, but they’ve topped the total the last five times they’ve played on back-to-back nights. Dallas is on “under” streaks of 5-2 overall, 4-1 against the West and 10-4 when playing on one day of rest. However, the over is 13-6 in the Mavericks’ last 19 against the Pacific Division.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
San Antonio (9-8, 7-9-1 ATS) at Denver (13-6, 12-6-1 ATS)
The red-hot Nuggets gun for their fourth consecutive win and cover when they host the Spurs at the Pepsi Center.
Denver crushed the Raptors 132-93 as a five-point home favorite on Tuesday, shooting an astounding 59.8 percent from the field (13-for-24 from three-point land) and holding Toronto to 36.6 percent (5-for-17 from downtown). Since starting the season 1-3, the Nuggets are on a 12-3 SU run (9-5-1 ATS), including 7-1 at home (5-2-1 ATS).
San Antonio’s shooters went ice cold in the second half of Tuesday’s home game against Detroit, getting outscored 49-32, including 28-14 in the fourth quarter of an 89-77 loss as a five-point favorite. The Spurs have lost consecutive games by double digits after going 7-1 SU and ATS in their previous eight.
The SU winner is 16-1 ATS in San Antonio’s games this year (13-0 in the last 13) and 7-1 ATS in Denver’s last eight contests.
The Spurs have held 12 of their last 13 opponents to 98 points or fewer, but the Nuggets have scored 101 or more in six straight games, averaging 110.5 ppg during this stretch.
Denver went to San Antonio on Nov. 19 and rolled to a 91-81 victory as a one-point road underdog. The Nuggets are 3-1 SU and 4-0 ATS in the last four head-to-head battles, including 2-0 SU and ATS at home. Finally, the favorite has covered in seven of the last nine in this rivalry.
The Spurs are on ATS streaks of 8-3 after a double-digit home loss, 6-2 against the Western Conference, 5-1 when playing on one day of rest and 5-1 after an opponent scores 100 points or more. However, they’re 6-14 ATS in their last 20 on the highway and 4-10 ATS in their last 14 against Northwest Division foes.
Denver is on ATS streaks of 6-2-1 at home, 10-2 against the Southwest Division, 8-2 after scoring 100 points or more, 10-4 on Thursdays and 7-3-1 after one day of rest.
The under is 21-6 in the last 27 Spurs-Nuggets clashes overall and 4-1 in the last five meetings at the Pepsi Center. Also, the under is on runs of 20-9 for Denver against the Southwest Division, 20-6 for the Spurs overall, 4-1 for the Spurs on the road, 15-6 for the Spurs against the Western Conference, 12-5 for the Spurs on Thursdays and 37-18 for the Spurs on one day of rest. Conversely, the Nuggets have topped the total in six straight games overall and five straight games at home.
ATS ADVANTAGE: DENVER
COLLEGE BASKETBALL
USC (5-2, 3-4 ATS) at (6) Oklahoma (6-0, 3-1 ATS)
Unbeaten Oklahoma, coming off a five-day hiatus and playing its first home game in nearly two weeks, takes on Southern Cal as part of the Big 12/Pac-10 Hardwood Series.
The Sooners outlasted then 10th-ranked Purdue 87-82 in overtime in Friday’s championship game of the NIT Season Tip-Off, winning and cashing as a two-point pup at Madison Square Garden. Star forward Blake Griffin (25.7 ppg, 19.7 rpg) had 18 points and an astounding 21 rebounds, giving him a double-double in every game this season. Guard Willie Warren had 22 points to lead five Oklahoma players in double figures.
The Trojans fended off San Francisco 74-69 Monday for their second straight win, but they failed to cash as a heavy 16½-point home chalk. Leading scorer Dwight Lewis (16.6 ppg) had 26 points, and the guard is shooting 49.4 percent from the field (35.7 percent from 3-point range). Fellow guard Daniel Hackett (10.1 ppg, 6.1 apg) added 18 points and six assists against the Dons.
These two teams met last December, with USC claiming a 66-55 win as a 5½-point home favorite.
The Sooners are 1-4 ATS in their last five Thursday contests, but they are on ATS surges of 9-3 outside the Big 12, 5-2 at home and 11-5 in Norman against teams with a losing road record. The Trojans are on positive pointspread runs of 4-1 after a non-cover and 20-8 on the road, but they are on ATS slides of 0-5 against winning teams, 0-4 after a SU win and 0-4 on Thursday.
The over for Oklahoma is on streaks of 4-1-1 overall and 9-2-1 in non-conference action, but the under for USC on runs of 28-12 outside the Pac-10, 10-4 after a non-cover and 10-1 on the road following three or more home games.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OKLAHOMA
(12) UCLA (4-1, 2-3 ATS) at (8) Texas (5-1, 3-2 ATS)
UCLA goes for its third straight win and cover when it travels to Austin to take on Texas in another Big 12/Pac-10 Hardwood Series contest.
The Bruins are coming off Saturday’s 89-54 rout of Florida International as a 24-point home chalk, cashing for the second consecutive game after an 0-3 ATS skid to open the season. Leading scorer Darren Collison (15.0 ppg) had just 11 points, but the guard added 11 assists, and guard Jrue Holiday added 20 points and is now shooting a sterling 63.9 percent from the field, including 45.5 percent from 3-point range.
The Longhorns rolled past Rice 77-56 Sunday but couldn’t cover as a healthy 26-point home favorite, falling to 1-2 ATS in their last three starts. A.J. Abrams (15.8 ppg) had just 10 points but played only 24 minutes in the rout, and Justin Mason had 14 points to lead four Texas players in double figures. The Longhorns shot 49.1 percent from the field, while holding the Owls to a stifling 33.3 percent.
Texas went to Pauley Pavilion last December as part of the Hardwood Series and shocked UCLA 63-61 as a 10-point road ‘dog.
The Bruins are on ATS runs of 11-4 on Thursday and 35-16-1 on the highway, but they are on pointspread skids of 1-6 against the Big 12, 1-6 after a spread-cover, 2-5 after a SU win and 2-5 against winning teams.
The Longhorns are 1-5 ATS in their last six Thursday starts, but they are on an 8-2 ATS tear against Pac-10 foes and are on further spread-covering runs of 7-2 after a SU win of more than 20 points and 5-2-1 after a pointspread setback.
The under is on runs of 4-0 for UCLA on the road, 5-1 for the Bruins against the Big 12 and 15-7 for Texas at home, but the over is on streaks of 6-2 for UCLA overall and 6-2 for Texas after a SU win.
ATS ADVANTAGE: TEXAS
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