Scott Ferrall Paid Picks
COLLEGE BASKETBALL PAY PICKS FOR THURSDAY PICKS ARE IN ALL CAPS AND RANKED IN ORDER OF CONFIDENCE ( )
Ucla
KANSAS -15 ½ (1)
Missouri
OREGON +6 ½ (2)
Davidson
COLLEGE OF CHARLESTON -4 ½ (3)
Arizona State
BAYLOR -9 (4)
CLEVELAND STATE -2 ½ (5)
Wisconsin Green Bay
Louisiana Monroe
KENT STATE -17 ½ (6)
Northern Illinois
DEPAUL -8 (7)
Valparaiso
ILLINOIS CHICAGO +5 (8)
YOUNGSTOWN STATE +8 ½
Wisconsin Milwaukee
Northridge
AIR FORCE -6
COLLEGE BASKETBALL PAY PICKS FOR THURSDAY PICKS ARE IN ALL CAPS AND RANKED IN ORDER OF CONFIDENCE ( )
Ucla
KANSAS -15 ½ (1)
Missouri
OREGON +6 ½ (2)
Davidson
COLLEGE OF CHARLESTON -4 ½ (3)
Arizona State
BAYLOR -9 (4)
CLEVELAND STATE -2 ½ (5)
Wisconsin Green Bay
Louisiana Monroe
KENT STATE -17 ½ (6)
Northern Illinois
DEPAUL -8 (7)
Valparaiso
ILLINOIS CHICAGO +5 (8)
YOUNGSTOWN STATE +8 ½
Wisconsin Milwaukee
Northridge
AIR FORCE -6
Scott Ferrall Paid Picks
NHL PAY PICKS FOR THURSDAY PICKS ARE IN ALL CAPS AND MONEY LINES ARE RANKED IN ORDER OF CONFIDENCE ( )
MONEY LINES
Atlanta
PITTSBURGH -165 (1)
Florida
LOS ANGELES -200 (2)
Montreal
NEW JERSEY -130 (3)
RANGERS -125 (4)
Islanders
Washington
DALLAS EVEN (5)
Tampa Bay
BOSTON -150 (6)
EDMONTON +155 (7)
Toronto
PUCK LINES
EDMONTON +1 ½ AT -235
Toronto
Washington
DALLAS +1 ½ AT -290
NHL PAY PICKS FOR THURSDAY PICKS ARE IN ALL CAPS AND MONEY LINES ARE RANKED IN ORDER OF CONFIDENCE ( )
MONEY LINES
Atlanta
PITTSBURGH -165 (1)
Florida
LOS ANGELES -200 (2)
Montreal
NEW JERSEY -130 (3)
RANGERS -125 (4)
Islanders
Washington
DALLAS EVEN (5)
Tampa Bay
BOSTON -150 (6)
EDMONTON +155 (7)
Toronto
PUCK LINES
EDMONTON +1 ½ AT -235
Toronto
Washington
DALLAS +1 ½ AT -290
jeff benton
Thursday's Action
40 Dime NBA release on the CAVALIERS plus the points vs. the Heat. Cleveland is a 4½- to 5-point home underdog in this contest. Moaitor this line closely and if you see the line shift in either direction, make sure you wager accordingly (i.e. if the number starts dropping, jump on the Cavs quickly; if it stoarts to go up, hold off and try to get a better take-back with Cleveland).
5 Dime NBA release on the CAVALIERS on the money line vs. the Heat. Cleveland is a +190 underdog on the money line
10 Dime NFL release on the TEXANS plus the points vs. the Eagles. Houston is a solid 8-point road underdog in this contest, though if you shop around you can get the Texans as high as 8½ and even 9 (which I obvieusly encourage you to do).
CAVALIERS (plus the points)
CAVALIERS (money-line)
Hey, did you hear LeBron James is making his return to Cleveland tonight for the first time since telling the city to go screw itself back in July? No, really, he is!
All kidding aside, LeBron tonight is walking into a house of hate the likes of which no professional athlete has previously experienced – EVER! And to be honest with you – as crazy as this sounds – if I was Miami Heat president Pat Riley, I would’ve left King James in South Beach. That’s right: I truly believe the Heat would have a better chance of winning this game if the best individual basketball talent on the planet wasn’t around.
Think about it: Do you really think LeBron is going to be able to focus on basketball when he knows that 20,000 people in the building which he was dead (and god knows a couple of those 20,000 might try to act on those wishes)? Do you really think LeBron – who by all accounts is a very sensitive guy who truly cares what others think of him – is going to return to his hometown and be able to block out the chorus of boos that will rain down on him for 2½ hours? The answers to those questions are “no” and “hell no”! Also, isn’t it easy to envision LeBron getting so rattled by the taunts that he shifts into “screw-you” mode and attempts to take over the game all by himself, freezing out his teammates? I sure can.
Throw in concerns about security – and no matter how beefed up it is, you know LeBron will be worried about his safety all night – and I really believe James is going to be more of a distraction for his team than a help.
At the same time, I guarantee you the energy in that arena tonight will give the Cavaliers an emotional lift like none they’ve had all season – and that includes the season-opener back on Oct. 27, when the Cavs began the post-LeBron era with an emotionally charged 95-87 upset win over the Celtics (a team we now know is MUCH better than the Heat).
And know this, too: The fans in the stands aren’t the only ones who are bitter about LeBron “taking his talents to South Beach.” The players James left behind in the locker room were legitimately pissed with their former leader basically said to them, “See ya all! I’m gonna go play in Miami with D-Wade and Bosh because you guys aren’t good enough to play with me.” Make no mistake, guys like Mo Williams, Antawn, Jamison, Anderson Varejao, J.J. Hickson, etc. very much remember how LeBron dissed them, and because of that they want a victory tonight just as badly (if not more so) than the Cleveland fans.
Now, in addition the emotional element surrounding this contest, there’s also the simple fact that not much separates these teams right now. Even with last night’s 97-72 home win over the Pistons, the Heat are just 12-8 on the season, including 2-5 on the road. The Cavaliers are 7-10 overall and 4-5 at home after Tuesday’s 19-point loss to the Celtics (clearly, Cleveland was looking ahead to this game!). And when you compare the home/road splits, you see that Miami as a visitor is averaging 93.7 ppg (44.3 percent), giving up 93.7 ppg (45.4 percent) and getting outrebounded by 5 boards per game; the Cavs put up 91.3 ppg (43.2 percent), allow 94.9 ppg (44.8 percent) and get outrebounded by 3.2 boards per game at home.
What about those stats tell you that Miami is 4½ points better than Cleveland?
Additionally, since starting the season 4-1 SU and ATS, the Heat have failed to cover the spread in 12 of their last 14 games, including the last seven in a row prior to finally getting to the window last night vs. the Pistons. That includes four consecutive SU and ATS road losses. Miami is also 1-3 ATS in back-to-back situations this year – and in none of those four previous back-to-backs were the Heat facing the kind of hostile environment they will face tonight.
Bottom line: LeBron James, as I noted above, is the most physically gifted basketball player on the planet. But he’s also among the most emotionally fragile, and I do NOT trust him at all tonight. And if he comes out and tries to score 50 points and put up a triple-double, he’ll fail miserably and Miami will lose by double digits. Meanwhile, this situation sets up perfectly for the Cavs, who had the day off at home Wednesday and will come into this contest rested and raring to go from the opening tip.
In the end, with a raucous crowd in their corner the entire night, Cleveland gets some much-needed redemption with an outright, seven-point victory.
TEXANS
First off, this line is seriously inflated. When I broke down this game and reviewed my power ratings, I had Philadelphia as no better than a six-point favorite. That means we’re getting two points of value in the line, and that value crosses the key number of seven, giving us more than a touchdown with Houston.
Yes, the Texans had lost four in a row prior to Sunday’s 20-0 shutout home win over the Titans (who were forced to use a rookie quarterback who was at Florida Atlantic 12 months ago). And yes, that four-game slide included three straight road losses. However, the last two of those defeats were flukes, as the Texans fell to Jacksonville 31-24 when the Jags completed that ridiculous Hail Mary on the final play of regulation, then they went to the Jets the following Sunday and lost 30-27, allowing New York to drive 75 yards in four plays for the game-winning TD, which came with 10 seconds remaining in the contest.
Houston’s other three road contests resulted in a wins at Washington (30-27) and Oakland (31-24) and a Monday night loss at Indianapolis (30-17). So in five roadies this season, the Texans have failed to show up just once.
True, the Texans’ defense – which prior to last week’s shutout had allowed at least 24 points in every game this season, including between 29 and 34 points in six straight games – will have its hands full with Michael Vick and the explosive Eagles offense. But it’s not like Houston’s offense is easy to contain, either, and Philadelphia will be tested by Matt Schaub, Andre Johnson, Arian Foster and Co. As it is the Eagles’ D just got lit up by Jay Cutler (4 TD passes) and the Bears in a 31-26 loss, meaning Philly has surrendered an average of 27.4 ppg in its last five contests, going just 3-2 SU and 2-3 ATS. And only four times this season have the Eagles allowed fewer than 24 points (and on three of those occasions, the opponent scored exactly 17 points).
While the Texans have just two spread-covers in their last seven overall, they’re 8-3 ATS in their last 11 as an underdog (including cashing in that Jets loss two weeks ago), including 6-2 ATS in their last eight as a ‘dog of 3½ to 10 points (all on the road).
Whether it’s a tight, back-and-forth game throughout or Philadelphia leaves the backdoor open in the fourth quarter, Houston will find a way to get inside this inflated number.
Thursday's Action
40 Dime NBA release on the CAVALIERS plus the points vs. the Heat. Cleveland is a 4½- to 5-point home underdog in this contest. Moaitor this line closely and if you see the line shift in either direction, make sure you wager accordingly (i.e. if the number starts dropping, jump on the Cavs quickly; if it stoarts to go up, hold off and try to get a better take-back with Cleveland).
5 Dime NBA release on the CAVALIERS on the money line vs. the Heat. Cleveland is a +190 underdog on the money line
10 Dime NFL release on the TEXANS plus the points vs. the Eagles. Houston is a solid 8-point road underdog in this contest, though if you shop around you can get the Texans as high as 8½ and even 9 (which I obvieusly encourage you to do).
CAVALIERS (plus the points)
CAVALIERS (money-line)
Hey, did you hear LeBron James is making his return to Cleveland tonight for the first time since telling the city to go screw itself back in July? No, really, he is!
All kidding aside, LeBron tonight is walking into a house of hate the likes of which no professional athlete has previously experienced – EVER! And to be honest with you – as crazy as this sounds – if I was Miami Heat president Pat Riley, I would’ve left King James in South Beach. That’s right: I truly believe the Heat would have a better chance of winning this game if the best individual basketball talent on the planet wasn’t around.
Think about it: Do you really think LeBron is going to be able to focus on basketball when he knows that 20,000 people in the building which he was dead (and god knows a couple of those 20,000 might try to act on those wishes)? Do you really think LeBron – who by all accounts is a very sensitive guy who truly cares what others think of him – is going to return to his hometown and be able to block out the chorus of boos that will rain down on him for 2½ hours? The answers to those questions are “no” and “hell no”! Also, isn’t it easy to envision LeBron getting so rattled by the taunts that he shifts into “screw-you” mode and attempts to take over the game all by himself, freezing out his teammates? I sure can.
Throw in concerns about security – and no matter how beefed up it is, you know LeBron will be worried about his safety all night – and I really believe James is going to be more of a distraction for his team than a help.
At the same time, I guarantee you the energy in that arena tonight will give the Cavaliers an emotional lift like none they’ve had all season – and that includes the season-opener back on Oct. 27, when the Cavs began the post-LeBron era with an emotionally charged 95-87 upset win over the Celtics (a team we now know is MUCH better than the Heat).
And know this, too: The fans in the stands aren’t the only ones who are bitter about LeBron “taking his talents to South Beach.” The players James left behind in the locker room were legitimately pissed with their former leader basically said to them, “See ya all! I’m gonna go play in Miami with D-Wade and Bosh because you guys aren’t good enough to play with me.” Make no mistake, guys like Mo Williams, Antawn, Jamison, Anderson Varejao, J.J. Hickson, etc. very much remember how LeBron dissed them, and because of that they want a victory tonight just as badly (if not more so) than the Cleveland fans.
Now, in addition the emotional element surrounding this contest, there’s also the simple fact that not much separates these teams right now. Even with last night’s 97-72 home win over the Pistons, the Heat are just 12-8 on the season, including 2-5 on the road. The Cavaliers are 7-10 overall and 4-5 at home after Tuesday’s 19-point loss to the Celtics (clearly, Cleveland was looking ahead to this game!). And when you compare the home/road splits, you see that Miami as a visitor is averaging 93.7 ppg (44.3 percent), giving up 93.7 ppg (45.4 percent) and getting outrebounded by 5 boards per game; the Cavs put up 91.3 ppg (43.2 percent), allow 94.9 ppg (44.8 percent) and get outrebounded by 3.2 boards per game at home.
What about those stats tell you that Miami is 4½ points better than Cleveland?
Additionally, since starting the season 4-1 SU and ATS, the Heat have failed to cover the spread in 12 of their last 14 games, including the last seven in a row prior to finally getting to the window last night vs. the Pistons. That includes four consecutive SU and ATS road losses. Miami is also 1-3 ATS in back-to-back situations this year – and in none of those four previous back-to-backs were the Heat facing the kind of hostile environment they will face tonight.
Bottom line: LeBron James, as I noted above, is the most physically gifted basketball player on the planet. But he’s also among the most emotionally fragile, and I do NOT trust him at all tonight. And if he comes out and tries to score 50 points and put up a triple-double, he’ll fail miserably and Miami will lose by double digits. Meanwhile, this situation sets up perfectly for the Cavs, who had the day off at home Wednesday and will come into this contest rested and raring to go from the opening tip.
In the end, with a raucous crowd in their corner the entire night, Cleveland gets some much-needed redemption with an outright, seven-point victory.
TEXANS
First off, this line is seriously inflated. When I broke down this game and reviewed my power ratings, I had Philadelphia as no better than a six-point favorite. That means we’re getting two points of value in the line, and that value crosses the key number of seven, giving us more than a touchdown with Houston.
Yes, the Texans had lost four in a row prior to Sunday’s 20-0 shutout home win over the Titans (who were forced to use a rookie quarterback who was at Florida Atlantic 12 months ago). And yes, that four-game slide included three straight road losses. However, the last two of those defeats were flukes, as the Texans fell to Jacksonville 31-24 when the Jags completed that ridiculous Hail Mary on the final play of regulation, then they went to the Jets the following Sunday and lost 30-27, allowing New York to drive 75 yards in four plays for the game-winning TD, which came with 10 seconds remaining in the contest.
Houston’s other three road contests resulted in a wins at Washington (30-27) and Oakland (31-24) and a Monday night loss at Indianapolis (30-17). So in five roadies this season, the Texans have failed to show up just once.
True, the Texans’ defense – which prior to last week’s shutout had allowed at least 24 points in every game this season, including between 29 and 34 points in six straight games – will have its hands full with Michael Vick and the explosive Eagles offense. But it’s not like Houston’s offense is easy to contain, either, and Philadelphia will be tested by Matt Schaub, Andre Johnson, Arian Foster and Co. As it is the Eagles’ D just got lit up by Jay Cutler (4 TD passes) and the Bears in a 31-26 loss, meaning Philly has surrendered an average of 27.4 ppg in its last five contests, going just 3-2 SU and 2-3 ATS. And only four times this season have the Eagles allowed fewer than 24 points (and on three of those occasions, the opponent scored exactly 17 points).
While the Texans have just two spread-covers in their last seven overall, they’re 8-3 ATS in their last 11 as an underdog (including cashing in that Jets loss two weeks ago), including 6-2 ATS in their last eight as a ‘dog of 3½ to 10 points (all on the road).
Whether it’s a tight, back-and-forth game throughout or Philadelphia leaves the backdoor open in the fourth quarter, Houston will find a way to get inside this inflated number.
Accuscore
NHL: Over/Under
Atlanta Thrashers
Pittsburgh Penguins
OVER 5.5
Florida Panthers
Los Angeles Kings
UNDER 5.5
Tampa Bay Lightning
Boston Bruins
UNDER 5.5
New York Rangers
New York Islanders
UNDER 5.5
Edmonton Oilers
Toronto Maple Leafs
UNDER 5.5
Washington Capitals
Dallas Stars
OVER 6
San Jose Sharks
Ottawa Senators
OVER 5.5
NHL: Side Value
Washington Capitals -109
Edmonton Oilers +150
Ottawa Senators +101
New Jersey Devils -138
Tampa Bay Lightning +136
Atlanta Thrashers +147
Florida Panthers +176
New York Islanders +116
NHL: Over/Under
Atlanta Thrashers
Pittsburgh Penguins
OVER 5.5
Florida Panthers
Los Angeles Kings
UNDER 5.5
Tampa Bay Lightning
Boston Bruins
UNDER 5.5
New York Rangers
New York Islanders
UNDER 5.5
Edmonton Oilers
Toronto Maple Leafs
UNDER 5.5
Washington Capitals
Dallas Stars
OVER 6
San Jose Sharks
Ottawa Senators
OVER 5.5
NHL: Side Value
Washington Capitals -109
Edmonton Oilers +150
Ottawa Senators +101
New Jersey Devils -138
Tampa Bay Lightning +136
Atlanta Thrashers +147
Florida Panthers +176
New York Islanders +116
