Statsystems sports nba report 12/2/10
STAN THE MAN'S STAT/SYSTEMS REPORT 12/2
NATIONAL BASKETBALL ASSOCIATION
INFO WORTH BETTING ON ONE PAGE EACH DAY
_______________________________________________
***** STAT/SYSTEMS SPORTS POWER SEARCH - NBA *****
• HOT TEAMS
-----------------
-- Miami won three of last four games, but covered two of last 14.
• COLD TEAMS
-------------------
-- Cavaliers are 3-5 vs spread at home, 2-2 as an underdog.
-- Suns lost five of their last seven games (1-6 vs spread). Warriors lost six of their last seven games.
• BACK-TO-BACK
----------------------
-- Miami is 2-2 (1-3 vs spread) if it played the night before.
• TOTALS
------------
-- Cleveland's last seven home games stayed under the total.
-- Under is 7-3 in last ten Golden State games.
• QUICK HITS
-----------------
--MIAMI @ CLEVELAND, 8:00 PM ET TNT MIAMI: 12-2 UNDER after a win by 20+ points. CLEVELAND: 57-38 UNDER off an Over.
--PHOENIX @ GOLDEN STATE, 10:30 PM ET TNT PHOENIX: 21-9 ATS when playing 4 or less games in 10 days. GOLDEN STATE: 29-11 UNDER after covering 2 of their last 3 games.
__________________________________________________ ______
*** MIAMI (-6.5, O/U 192) @ CLEVELAND ***
------------------------------------------------------
There’s not much LeBron James can absolutely say about what awaits when he returns to Cleveland as an opponent on Thursday night. Fun, weird, tough, draining. James cites them all as expectations. He’s likely right on each count, and who knows how many more ways the emotional gamut will swing on Thursday when the Miami Heat visit Cleveland, the city James scorned on July 8 when he announced in a nationally televised special that he was “taking my talents to South Beach.”
It’ll be James’ first time back as a visitor, and Cavaliers fans have been waiting months to not welcome him home. “It’s going to be tough, but I’m there to win a basketball game,” James said after Tuesday’s Heat practice and preparing for Wednesday’s game against Detroit—almost forgotten given the magnitude of what looms Thursday. “I understand. I understand how passionate fans are about sports. I’m ready for whatever response that I’m going to get. It’s going to be very emotional.”
True, for all parties involved. But the NBA might have helped James out a bit with this trip. Because Miami plays at home Wednesday night, the Heat will not arrive in Cleveland until early Thursday morning. The team won’t practice that day, just have meetings and a walkthrough at its hotel, which will be teeming with security—like always. They’ll bus to the arena, play the game, head to the airport and leave for Miami. No time to visit old haunts or old friends. A business trip, nothing more, nothing less, and James seems relieved by that.
“I think it’s going to be very emotional for myself,” James said. “I’ve got a lot of great memories in that city. So many times, from ups and downs, and a lot of things that I’ve done in my life, I give a lot of thanks to that city, lot of thanks to those fans for giving me the opportunity to not only showcase my talent but grow from a young boy to a man.” He’s not from Cleveland, but Akron, about 40 miles south.
The Cavaliers’ franchise was reborn when they won the right to pick James No. 1 overall in the 2003 draft, and together, they soared. Cleveland won 349 games during James’ seven seasons, second-most in the Eastern Conference over that span, and the Cavaliers’ 127 wins in 2008-09 and 2009-10—James’ MVP years—topped the NBA charts. So when he became a free agent, there was angst in Cleveland, understandably. Angst turned to anger at 9:27 p.m. on July 8, when James revealed his decision.
“I think it’s going to be something that none of us have ever seen before,” Heat guard Dwyane Wade said of what’s coming on Thursday. “If we can be a fan and watch it from afar, we all would, and not go. I would love to watch it and see as a fan, but I’m involved in it. It’s going to be entertainment for everyone to watch.” Some Heat fans will gather to watch, at a team-sponsored event known as a “road rally.” Of course, it’ll happen at the Clevelander—on South Beach. At least the Heat will be cheered somewhere on Thursday.
“I’m sure a lot of people are going to show their support for the Cavaliers in their own kind of way,” Heat forward Chris Bosh said. “I don’t think we know what to expect, but I’m sure it’s going to be something like we’ve never seen before.” He’ll see something like it on Feb. 16, when he returns to Toronto, his former home, for the first time as an opponent. “I’m glad LeBron breaks the ice first,” Bosh said.
It’s a Cleveland homecoming for former Cavs center Zydrunas Ilgauskas as well, and while he said the trip will be “a unique situation,” he’s almost certain not to face the level of venom that’ll be directed at James. Wade said he’ll give James simple advice beforehand. “The only thing I would say to him is not try to go out to get 100 points,” Wade said. “Play the game. Let the game flow to you. I know he wants to play great, but sometimes you can force it too much. Just play basketball like LeBron James.”
Which is what James says he’ll do. He won’t break from his normal routine for this game, and doesn’t plan to reach out to fans in any way, though he noted that he remains “very respectful” of the people who cheered him for seven years. “It’s one game,” James said. “I know everyone is making it a huge deal, but its one game.”
• PREGAME NOTES
-----------------------
LeBron James returns to his “fallen” kingdom for the first time when Miami visits Cleveland. But the Cavs are only 1.5 games below the hyped-up Heat this season, and Miami has the second-worst ATS record in the NBA (6-13). Miami is 2-5 ATS on the road and 4-9 ATS against fellow East teams. James has had a down year, shooting 43.6% FG and a career-low 26.2% from behind the arc. He has also committed a career-high 4.1 turnovers per game. He may never play in a more hostile environment than he will see Thursday, which doesn’t equate to a great performance from someone with his fragile psyche.
*STAN'S FORECASTER - Miami by 6.5; O/U 197
*STAN'S POWER LINE - Miami -5
*OUTPLAY FACTOR - Miami -6.98
__________________________________________
• TOP RATED TEAM ATS TRENDS
----------------------------------------
--CLEVELAND is 5-21 ATS (-17.5 Units) in home games vs. good free throw shooting teams - making >=76% of their attempts over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was CLEVELAND 102.2, OPPONENT 99.5 - (Rating = 3*)
--MIAMI is 86-60 ATS (+20.0 Units) in road games when playing only their 2nd game in 5 days since 1996.
The average score was MIAMI 90.8, OPPONENT 92.4 - (Rating = 3*)
• TOP RATED TEAM OVER/UNDER TRENDS
---------------------------------------------------
--CLEVELAND is 78-47 UNDER (+26.3 Units) in home games after 3 straight games committing 14 or less turnovers since 1996.
The average score was CLEVELAND 97.6, OPPONENT 92.1 - (Rating = 4*)
--CLEVELAND is 57-38 UNDER (+15.1 Units) after one or more consecutive overs over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was CLEVELAND 100.5, OPPONENT 95.0 - (Rating = 3*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF TRENDS
-------------------------------------------------
--CLEVELAND is 6-19 against the 1rst half line (-14.8 Units) in home games versus good ball handling teams - committing <=14 turnovers/game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was CLEVELAND 53.1, OPPONENT 50.8 - (Rating = 3*)
--MIAMI is 33-17 against the 1rst half line (+14.2 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 99+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was MIAMI 52.1, OPPONENT 46.8 - (Rating = 3*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF OVER/UNDER TRENDS
-------------------------------------------------------------------
--CLEVELAND is 33-13 OVER (+18.7 Units) the 1rst half total versus good shooting teams - making >=46% of their shots over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was CLEVELAND 53.2, OPPONENT 51.8 - (Rating = 3*)
--CLEVELAND is 35-15 OVER (+18.5 Units) the 1rst half total when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was CLEVELAND 51.9, OPPONENT 51.7 - (Rating = 3*)
• HIGHEST RATED SUPER SITUATION
---------------------------------------------
--PLAY ON - Road teams (MIAMI) - cold team - failing to cover the spread in 12 or more of the last 15, tired team - playing 8 or more games in 14 days.
(43-15 since 1996.) (74.1%, +26.5 units. Rating = 3*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (19-40)
The average line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 6.4
The average score in these games was: Team 94.5, Opponent 97.1 (Average point differential = -2.5)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 22 (39.3% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (5-1).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (13-2).
__________________________________________
Most sports bettors are not aware that the College Basketball and NBA season is a very profitable time of the year. Stan 'The Man' has made more money for his clients during the basketball season than most Sports Services do, during the entire football, and baseball seasons combined!
If you are serious about making money all season long, I strongly suggest you purchase one of my Basketball Packages! Last season, a $100/game bettor made $6,790. A $500/game bettor made $33,950! "Don't try to do it on your own again this season. We both know how that turns out, so let our NBA and CBB Expert, Stan Szumera handle all of your basketball betting needs this season, and let him make you money week after week!"
__________________________________________________ ______
*** PHOENIX @ GOLDEN STATE (-2, O/U 229.5) ***
--------------------------------------------------------------
The Phoenix Suns and Golden State Warriors seemingly always play high-scoring affairs, and there’s nothing to suggest the renewal of this Pacific Division rivalry will be any different. It’s been nearly five years since a game between these teams didn’t include both scoring more than 100 points, a trend expected to continue Thursday night with both struggling defensively as their season series begins.
The Suns have won eight of the last 10 meetings, averaging 123.8 points and giving up 117.0. Their past 17 games with the Warriors have seen both teams cross the century mark in scoring, a streak dating to Phoenix’s 112-99 win Jan. 12, 2006. The winning team had at least 123 points in all four matchups last season and the most recent was among the highest scoring in series history, with the Suns winning 133-131 in Oakland on March 22.
Former Warrior Jason Richardson scored 34 in that victory and is coming off a season-high 39 points Sunday against a Denver team missing Carmelo Anthony, but the Suns lost 138-133 in the league’s highest-scoring game of the season. “I think it is just giving up too many of those drives, myself included and everybody. Not going out there and playing with aggression,” Richardson said. “We know we can score offensively; we can’t just rely on our offense to go out there and win games for us. We have got to find ways to get stops, key stops. You can’t let a team score 130 points.”
Phoenix has lost five of seven while giving up an average of 119.4 points, letting opponents shoot 52.0 percent from the field. Three of the Suns’ last five opponents have posted their highest point totals of the season. “You can’t win a game where you don’t guard anybody,” coach Alvin Gentry said. “You got to guard somebody. You got to guard one person.” Gentry’s team is allowing a league-high average of 111.9 points. Golden State is fourth-worst at 106.5.
That average is at 112.4 during the Warriors’ current 1-6 slump following a 118-98 home loss to San Antonio on Tuesday. Stephen Curry scored 32 points, but Monta Ellis was held to 12 - less than half his season average. The Warriors are 5-1 when Ellis has at least 25 points. They’re 4-1 when holding teams under 100 points, something that’s happened once in the past three weeks.
The good news for Golden State is David Lee is closer to full strength. After scoring 10 points on 5-of-15 shooting in his return Saturday after missing eight games with an elbow infection, Lee was 7 of 12 for 18 points Tuesday. The Warriors closed November losing to the league’s top team record-wise and their first six games this month all come against playoff teams from last season. Following this contest, Golden State plays 11 of 16 on the road.
*STAN'S FORECASTER - Phoenix by 2; O/U 218
*STAN'S POWER LINE - Phoenix -3.5
*OUTPLAY FACTOR - Phoenix -1.80
__________________________________________
• TOP RATED TEAM ATS TRENDS
----------------------------------------
--PHOENIX is 34-15 ATS (+17.4 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 99+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was PHOENIX 114.9, OPPONENT 106.8 - (Rating = 3*)
--PHOENIX is 46-27 ATS (+16.3 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was PHOENIX 109.7, OPPONENT 107.3 - (Rating = 3*)
• TOP RATED TEAM OVER/UNDER TRENDS
---------------------------------------------------
--GOLDEN STATE is 37-18 UNDER (+17.1 Units) after a combined score of 215 points or more over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was GOLDEN STATE 104.7, OPPONENT 107.1 - (Rating = 3*)
--GOLDEN STATE is 29-11 UNDER (+16.8 Units) after covering 2 of their last 3 against the spread over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was GOLDEN STATE 104.8, OPPONENT 108.2 - (Rating = 3*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF TRENDS
-------------------------------------------------
--GOLDEN STATE is 89-62 against the 1rst half line (+20.8 Units) in home games versus good shooting teams - making >=46% of their shots since 1996.
The average score was GOLDEN STATE 52.1, OPPONENT 52.4 - (Rating = 3*)
--PHOENIX is 45-72 against the 1rst half line (-34.2 Units) in road games versus up-tempo teams averaging 83 or more shots/game since 1996.
The average score was PHOENIX 51.5, OPPONENT 54.1 - (Rating = 5*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF OVER/UNDER TRENDS
-------------------------------------------------------------------
--PHOENIX is 25-7 UNDER (+16.1 Units) the 1rst half total versus poor foul drawing teams - attempting <=24 free throws/game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was PHOENIX 53.3, OPPONENT 51.9 - (Rating = 3*)
--PHOENIX is 26-9 UNDER (+15.9 Units) the 1rst half total when playing 6 or less games in 14 days over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was PHOENIX 52.1, OPPONENT 50.7 - (Rating = 3*)
• COACHING SITUATIONAL POWER TRENDS
------------------------------------------------------
--GENTRY is 33-16 UNDER (+15.4 Units) in road games versus poor defensive teams - shooting pct defense of >=46% in all games he has coached since 1996.
The average score was Gentry 105.0, OPPONENT 102.9 - (Rating = 3*)
--SMART is 15-4 UNDER (+10.6 Units) after covering 2 of their last 3 against the spread in all games he has coached since 1996.
The average score was Smart 92.3, OPPONENT 97.3 - (Rating = 2*)
--SMART is 18-6 UNDER (+11.4 Units) after allowing 105 points or more in all games he has coached since 1996.
The average score was Smart 92.4, OPPONENT 101.9 - (Rating = 2*)
--SMART is 14-3 UNDER (+10.7 Units) after allowing 110 points or more in all games he has coached since 1996.
The average score was Smart 90.0, OPPONENT 102.3 - (Rating = 2*)
• HIGHEST RATED SUPER SITUATIONS
-----------------------------------------------
--PLAY UNDER - Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (GOLDEN STATE) - after being beaten by the spread by 48 or more points total in their last ten games against opponent after going over the total by 42 or more points total in their last seven games.
(23-2 since 1996.) (92.0%, +20.8 units. Rating = 5*)
The average total posted in these games was: 217.5
The average score in these games was: Team 105.5, Opponent 99.7 (Total points scored = 205.2)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 15 (65.2% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (12-1).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (19-1).
--PLAY UNDER - All teams where the first half total is greater than 105 (PHOENIX) - after a loss by 6 points or less against opponent after a blowout loss by 20 points or more.
(29-8 since 1996.) (78.4%, +20.2 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half total posted in these games was: 108.4
The average first half score in these games was: Team 51.3, Opponent 50.8 (Total first half points scored = 102.1)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (17-6).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (23-7).
STAN THE MAN'S STAT/SYSTEMS REPORT 12/2
NATIONAL BASKETBALL ASSOCIATION
INFO WORTH BETTING ON ONE PAGE EACH DAY
_______________________________________________
***** STAT/SYSTEMS SPORTS POWER SEARCH - NBA *****
• HOT TEAMS
-----------------
-- Miami won three of last four games, but covered two of last 14.
• COLD TEAMS
-------------------
-- Cavaliers are 3-5 vs spread at home, 2-2 as an underdog.
-- Suns lost five of their last seven games (1-6 vs spread). Warriors lost six of their last seven games.
• BACK-TO-BACK
----------------------
-- Miami is 2-2 (1-3 vs spread) if it played the night before.
• TOTALS
------------
-- Cleveland's last seven home games stayed under the total.
-- Under is 7-3 in last ten Golden State games.
• QUICK HITS
-----------------
--MIAMI @ CLEVELAND, 8:00 PM ET TNT MIAMI: 12-2 UNDER after a win by 20+ points. CLEVELAND: 57-38 UNDER off an Over.
--PHOENIX @ GOLDEN STATE, 10:30 PM ET TNT PHOENIX: 21-9 ATS when playing 4 or less games in 10 days. GOLDEN STATE: 29-11 UNDER after covering 2 of their last 3 games.
__________________________________________________ ______
*** MIAMI (-6.5, O/U 192) @ CLEVELAND ***
------------------------------------------------------
There’s not much LeBron James can absolutely say about what awaits when he returns to Cleveland as an opponent on Thursday night. Fun, weird, tough, draining. James cites them all as expectations. He’s likely right on each count, and who knows how many more ways the emotional gamut will swing on Thursday when the Miami Heat visit Cleveland, the city James scorned on July 8 when he announced in a nationally televised special that he was “taking my talents to South Beach.”
It’ll be James’ first time back as a visitor, and Cavaliers fans have been waiting months to not welcome him home. “It’s going to be tough, but I’m there to win a basketball game,” James said after Tuesday’s Heat practice and preparing for Wednesday’s game against Detroit—almost forgotten given the magnitude of what looms Thursday. “I understand. I understand how passionate fans are about sports. I’m ready for whatever response that I’m going to get. It’s going to be very emotional.”
True, for all parties involved. But the NBA might have helped James out a bit with this trip. Because Miami plays at home Wednesday night, the Heat will not arrive in Cleveland until early Thursday morning. The team won’t practice that day, just have meetings and a walkthrough at its hotel, which will be teeming with security—like always. They’ll bus to the arena, play the game, head to the airport and leave for Miami. No time to visit old haunts or old friends. A business trip, nothing more, nothing less, and James seems relieved by that.
“I think it’s going to be very emotional for myself,” James said. “I’ve got a lot of great memories in that city. So many times, from ups and downs, and a lot of things that I’ve done in my life, I give a lot of thanks to that city, lot of thanks to those fans for giving me the opportunity to not only showcase my talent but grow from a young boy to a man.” He’s not from Cleveland, but Akron, about 40 miles south.
The Cavaliers’ franchise was reborn when they won the right to pick James No. 1 overall in the 2003 draft, and together, they soared. Cleveland won 349 games during James’ seven seasons, second-most in the Eastern Conference over that span, and the Cavaliers’ 127 wins in 2008-09 and 2009-10—James’ MVP years—topped the NBA charts. So when he became a free agent, there was angst in Cleveland, understandably. Angst turned to anger at 9:27 p.m. on July 8, when James revealed his decision.
“I think it’s going to be something that none of us have ever seen before,” Heat guard Dwyane Wade said of what’s coming on Thursday. “If we can be a fan and watch it from afar, we all would, and not go. I would love to watch it and see as a fan, but I’m involved in it. It’s going to be entertainment for everyone to watch.” Some Heat fans will gather to watch, at a team-sponsored event known as a “road rally.” Of course, it’ll happen at the Clevelander—on South Beach. At least the Heat will be cheered somewhere on Thursday.
“I’m sure a lot of people are going to show their support for the Cavaliers in their own kind of way,” Heat forward Chris Bosh said. “I don’t think we know what to expect, but I’m sure it’s going to be something like we’ve never seen before.” He’ll see something like it on Feb. 16, when he returns to Toronto, his former home, for the first time as an opponent. “I’m glad LeBron breaks the ice first,” Bosh said.
It’s a Cleveland homecoming for former Cavs center Zydrunas Ilgauskas as well, and while he said the trip will be “a unique situation,” he’s almost certain not to face the level of venom that’ll be directed at James. Wade said he’ll give James simple advice beforehand. “The only thing I would say to him is not try to go out to get 100 points,” Wade said. “Play the game. Let the game flow to you. I know he wants to play great, but sometimes you can force it too much. Just play basketball like LeBron James.”
Which is what James says he’ll do. He won’t break from his normal routine for this game, and doesn’t plan to reach out to fans in any way, though he noted that he remains “very respectful” of the people who cheered him for seven years. “It’s one game,” James said. “I know everyone is making it a huge deal, but its one game.”
• PREGAME NOTES
-----------------------
LeBron James returns to his “fallen” kingdom for the first time when Miami visits Cleveland. But the Cavs are only 1.5 games below the hyped-up Heat this season, and Miami has the second-worst ATS record in the NBA (6-13). Miami is 2-5 ATS on the road and 4-9 ATS against fellow East teams. James has had a down year, shooting 43.6% FG and a career-low 26.2% from behind the arc. He has also committed a career-high 4.1 turnovers per game. He may never play in a more hostile environment than he will see Thursday, which doesn’t equate to a great performance from someone with his fragile psyche.
*STAN'S FORECASTER - Miami by 6.5; O/U 197
*STAN'S POWER LINE - Miami -5
*OUTPLAY FACTOR - Miami -6.98
__________________________________________
• TOP RATED TEAM ATS TRENDS
----------------------------------------
--CLEVELAND is 5-21 ATS (-17.5 Units) in home games vs. good free throw shooting teams - making >=76% of their attempts over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was CLEVELAND 102.2, OPPONENT 99.5 - (Rating = 3*)
--MIAMI is 86-60 ATS (+20.0 Units) in road games when playing only their 2nd game in 5 days since 1996.
The average score was MIAMI 90.8, OPPONENT 92.4 - (Rating = 3*)
• TOP RATED TEAM OVER/UNDER TRENDS
---------------------------------------------------
--CLEVELAND is 78-47 UNDER (+26.3 Units) in home games after 3 straight games committing 14 or less turnovers since 1996.
The average score was CLEVELAND 97.6, OPPONENT 92.1 - (Rating = 4*)
--CLEVELAND is 57-38 UNDER (+15.1 Units) after one or more consecutive overs over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was CLEVELAND 100.5, OPPONENT 95.0 - (Rating = 3*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF TRENDS
-------------------------------------------------
--CLEVELAND is 6-19 against the 1rst half line (-14.8 Units) in home games versus good ball handling teams - committing <=14 turnovers/game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was CLEVELAND 53.1, OPPONENT 50.8 - (Rating = 3*)
--MIAMI is 33-17 against the 1rst half line (+14.2 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 99+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was MIAMI 52.1, OPPONENT 46.8 - (Rating = 3*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF OVER/UNDER TRENDS
-------------------------------------------------------------------
--CLEVELAND is 33-13 OVER (+18.7 Units) the 1rst half total versus good shooting teams - making >=46% of their shots over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was CLEVELAND 53.2, OPPONENT 51.8 - (Rating = 3*)
--CLEVELAND is 35-15 OVER (+18.5 Units) the 1rst half total when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was CLEVELAND 51.9, OPPONENT 51.7 - (Rating = 3*)
• HIGHEST RATED SUPER SITUATION
---------------------------------------------
--PLAY ON - Road teams (MIAMI) - cold team - failing to cover the spread in 12 or more of the last 15, tired team - playing 8 or more games in 14 days.
(43-15 since 1996.) (74.1%, +26.5 units. Rating = 3*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (19-40)
The average line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 6.4
The average score in these games was: Team 94.5, Opponent 97.1 (Average point differential = -2.5)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 22 (39.3% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (5-1).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (13-2).
__________________________________________
Most sports bettors are not aware that the College Basketball and NBA season is a very profitable time of the year. Stan 'The Man' has made more money for his clients during the basketball season than most Sports Services do, during the entire football, and baseball seasons combined!
If you are serious about making money all season long, I strongly suggest you purchase one of my Basketball Packages! Last season, a $100/game bettor made $6,790. A $500/game bettor made $33,950! "Don't try to do it on your own again this season. We both know how that turns out, so let our NBA and CBB Expert, Stan Szumera handle all of your basketball betting needs this season, and let him make you money week after week!"
__________________________________________________ ______
*** PHOENIX @ GOLDEN STATE (-2, O/U 229.5) ***
--------------------------------------------------------------
The Phoenix Suns and Golden State Warriors seemingly always play high-scoring affairs, and there’s nothing to suggest the renewal of this Pacific Division rivalry will be any different. It’s been nearly five years since a game between these teams didn’t include both scoring more than 100 points, a trend expected to continue Thursday night with both struggling defensively as their season series begins.
The Suns have won eight of the last 10 meetings, averaging 123.8 points and giving up 117.0. Their past 17 games with the Warriors have seen both teams cross the century mark in scoring, a streak dating to Phoenix’s 112-99 win Jan. 12, 2006. The winning team had at least 123 points in all four matchups last season and the most recent was among the highest scoring in series history, with the Suns winning 133-131 in Oakland on March 22.
Former Warrior Jason Richardson scored 34 in that victory and is coming off a season-high 39 points Sunday against a Denver team missing Carmelo Anthony, but the Suns lost 138-133 in the league’s highest-scoring game of the season. “I think it is just giving up too many of those drives, myself included and everybody. Not going out there and playing with aggression,” Richardson said. “We know we can score offensively; we can’t just rely on our offense to go out there and win games for us. We have got to find ways to get stops, key stops. You can’t let a team score 130 points.”
Phoenix has lost five of seven while giving up an average of 119.4 points, letting opponents shoot 52.0 percent from the field. Three of the Suns’ last five opponents have posted their highest point totals of the season. “You can’t win a game where you don’t guard anybody,” coach Alvin Gentry said. “You got to guard somebody. You got to guard one person.” Gentry’s team is allowing a league-high average of 111.9 points. Golden State is fourth-worst at 106.5.
That average is at 112.4 during the Warriors’ current 1-6 slump following a 118-98 home loss to San Antonio on Tuesday. Stephen Curry scored 32 points, but Monta Ellis was held to 12 - less than half his season average. The Warriors are 5-1 when Ellis has at least 25 points. They’re 4-1 when holding teams under 100 points, something that’s happened once in the past three weeks.
The good news for Golden State is David Lee is closer to full strength. After scoring 10 points on 5-of-15 shooting in his return Saturday after missing eight games with an elbow infection, Lee was 7 of 12 for 18 points Tuesday. The Warriors closed November losing to the league’s top team record-wise and their first six games this month all come against playoff teams from last season. Following this contest, Golden State plays 11 of 16 on the road.
*STAN'S FORECASTER - Phoenix by 2; O/U 218
*STAN'S POWER LINE - Phoenix -3.5
*OUTPLAY FACTOR - Phoenix -1.80
__________________________________________
• TOP RATED TEAM ATS TRENDS
----------------------------------------
--PHOENIX is 34-15 ATS (+17.4 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 99+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was PHOENIX 114.9, OPPONENT 106.8 - (Rating = 3*)
--PHOENIX is 46-27 ATS (+16.3 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was PHOENIX 109.7, OPPONENT 107.3 - (Rating = 3*)
• TOP RATED TEAM OVER/UNDER TRENDS
---------------------------------------------------
--GOLDEN STATE is 37-18 UNDER (+17.1 Units) after a combined score of 215 points or more over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was GOLDEN STATE 104.7, OPPONENT 107.1 - (Rating = 3*)
--GOLDEN STATE is 29-11 UNDER (+16.8 Units) after covering 2 of their last 3 against the spread over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was GOLDEN STATE 104.8, OPPONENT 108.2 - (Rating = 3*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF TRENDS
-------------------------------------------------
--GOLDEN STATE is 89-62 against the 1rst half line (+20.8 Units) in home games versus good shooting teams - making >=46% of their shots since 1996.
The average score was GOLDEN STATE 52.1, OPPONENT 52.4 - (Rating = 3*)
--PHOENIX is 45-72 against the 1rst half line (-34.2 Units) in road games versus up-tempo teams averaging 83 or more shots/game since 1996.
The average score was PHOENIX 51.5, OPPONENT 54.1 - (Rating = 5*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF OVER/UNDER TRENDS
-------------------------------------------------------------------
--PHOENIX is 25-7 UNDER (+16.1 Units) the 1rst half total versus poor foul drawing teams - attempting <=24 free throws/game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was PHOENIX 53.3, OPPONENT 51.9 - (Rating = 3*)
--PHOENIX is 26-9 UNDER (+15.9 Units) the 1rst half total when playing 6 or less games in 14 days over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was PHOENIX 52.1, OPPONENT 50.7 - (Rating = 3*)
• COACHING SITUATIONAL POWER TRENDS
------------------------------------------------------
--GENTRY is 33-16 UNDER (+15.4 Units) in road games versus poor defensive teams - shooting pct defense of >=46% in all games he has coached since 1996.
The average score was Gentry 105.0, OPPONENT 102.9 - (Rating = 3*)
--SMART is 15-4 UNDER (+10.6 Units) after covering 2 of their last 3 against the spread in all games he has coached since 1996.
The average score was Smart 92.3, OPPONENT 97.3 - (Rating = 2*)
--SMART is 18-6 UNDER (+11.4 Units) after allowing 105 points or more in all games he has coached since 1996.
The average score was Smart 92.4, OPPONENT 101.9 - (Rating = 2*)
--SMART is 14-3 UNDER (+10.7 Units) after allowing 110 points or more in all games he has coached since 1996.
The average score was Smart 90.0, OPPONENT 102.3 - (Rating = 2*)
• HIGHEST RATED SUPER SITUATIONS
-----------------------------------------------
--PLAY UNDER - Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (GOLDEN STATE) - after being beaten by the spread by 48 or more points total in their last ten games against opponent after going over the total by 42 or more points total in their last seven games.
(23-2 since 1996.) (92.0%, +20.8 units. Rating = 5*)
The average total posted in these games was: 217.5
The average score in these games was: Team 105.5, Opponent 99.7 (Total points scored = 205.2)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 15 (65.2% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (12-1).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (19-1).
--PLAY UNDER - All teams where the first half total is greater than 105 (PHOENIX) - after a loss by 6 points or less against opponent after a blowout loss by 20 points or more.
(29-8 since 1996.) (78.4%, +20.2 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half total posted in these games was: 108.4
The average first half score in these games was: Team 51.3, Opponent 50.8 (Total first half points scored = 102.1)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (17-6).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (23-7).
GC: Thursday NCAAB Play
On Thursday the NCAAB Play is on the Missouri Tigers. Game 721 at 10:00 eastern. Last year Mizzou opened up a can against Oregon. They smashed them 106-69 in a game that was a blowout from the opening tip. While I expect this one to be closer. I do expect another win and cover here for Missouri. The Tigers are 5-1 straight up and ats since 1997 vs PAC 10 teams and are a more talented bunch. Oregon is just 3-11 straight up and against the spread vs teams who average 77 or more points per game the past few years. They are also just 1-4 as a home dog in this range the past couple of years. Look for Missouri to take this one tonight. On Thursday I have another big 100% NBA Power system. In NFL Action I have 3 systems in play and a double Angle college football side. NBA Won again last night and is now 24-9 on the season. Football combined is 31 games over .500 this year. For the Bonus Play take the Missouri Tigers. GC
On Thursday the NCAAB Play is on the Missouri Tigers. Game 721 at 10:00 eastern. Last year Mizzou opened up a can against Oregon. They smashed them 106-69 in a game that was a blowout from the opening tip. While I expect this one to be closer. I do expect another win and cover here for Missouri. The Tigers are 5-1 straight up and ats since 1997 vs PAC 10 teams and are a more talented bunch. Oregon is just 3-11 straight up and against the spread vs teams who average 77 or more points per game the past few years. They are also just 1-4 as a home dog in this range the past couple of years. Look for Missouri to take this one tonight. On Thursday I have another big 100% NBA Power system. In NFL Action I have 3 systems in play and a double Angle college football side. NBA Won again last night and is now 24-9 on the season. Football combined is 31 games over .500 this year. For the Bonus Play take the Missouri Tigers. GC
Anybody got Fargo or Lawerence on college or pro football tonight?
from predictem.com
Ryno's Pick to Cover the Point Spread: I'm surprised that the oddsmakers are hanging such a big line on this game. With that being said, my handicapping model tells me that the Eagles are 10 points better than Houston, so that's my play.
Jeff's Pick to Cover the Point Spread: Arizona State +6.
Big time rivalry game and last week's performance against UCLA tells me they have not quit. This is truly a must win game and it comes against a Pac-10 rival. Take the points in this upset maker!
from predictem.com
Ryno's Pick to Cover the Point Spread: I'm surprised that the oddsmakers are hanging such a big line on this game. With that being said, my handicapping model tells me that the Eagles are 10 points better than Houston, so that's my play.
Jeff's Pick to Cover the Point Spread: Arizona State +6.
Big time rivalry game and last week's performance against UCLA tells me they have not quit. This is truly a must win game and it comes against a Pac-10 rival. Take the points in this upset maker!
SAFESTWAGERING
Tonight:
Houston Texans (5-6)
@ Philadelphia Eagles (7-4) 1:00 ET
Who led the league in total passing yardage last year, and
the first 3 games of 2010 ?
a) Aaron Rodgers
b) Peyton Manning
c) Tom Brady
d) Drew Brees
e) None of the above.
The answer would be (e). It's surprisingly Matt Schaub.
In 3 of their first 4 games this year, The Texans scored more
than 30 points and looked like an offensive force.
We've often hear frustrated analysts make the acerbic
comment that "NFL" stands for "Not For Long". It's
more valid this year than ever.
Their defense is ranked 29th in the league and last
Sunday they throw a shoutout at The Titans.
The same Titans team that scored 27 straight points against The Eagles. But.... last week Tennessee was without
key offensive weapons and had a quarterback
who may not be in the league for long.
Conversely, 2 weeks ago, The Eagles set a Monday Night
scoring record against The Redskins, and then had trouble
moving the ball last Sunday against The Bears.
2 Main Reasons:
1) Team Egocentrism. The Eagles believe in themselves,
which is great, but you can never letdown in The NFL.
2) Chicago had a well researched defensive game plan, and
The Eagles didn't adjust.
Philly has 2 of the quickest recievers in the league,
but neither have an affinity for short crossing or
slant patterns. The Bears let their corners play deep,
sometimes 30 yards, which negated many Eagle
down field opportunites.
Philadelphia is not as good as they looked against
The Redskins or Giants, but are better than their
performance against The Bears.
The Texans still need improvement, are nicked up, and
have to travel 2500 miles on a short week.
Take The Eagles -8
Tonight:
Houston Texans (5-6)
@ Philadelphia Eagles (7-4) 1:00 ET
Who led the league in total passing yardage last year, and
the first 3 games of 2010 ?
a) Aaron Rodgers
b) Peyton Manning
c) Tom Brady
d) Drew Brees
e) None of the above.
The answer would be (e). It's surprisingly Matt Schaub.
In 3 of their first 4 games this year, The Texans scored more
than 30 points and looked like an offensive force.
We've often hear frustrated analysts make the acerbic
comment that "NFL" stands for "Not For Long". It's
more valid this year than ever.
Their defense is ranked 29th in the league and last
Sunday they throw a shoutout at The Titans.
The same Titans team that scored 27 straight points against The Eagles. But.... last week Tennessee was without
key offensive weapons and had a quarterback
who may not be in the league for long.
Conversely, 2 weeks ago, The Eagles set a Monday Night
scoring record against The Redskins, and then had trouble
moving the ball last Sunday against The Bears.
2 Main Reasons:
1) Team Egocentrism. The Eagles believe in themselves,
which is great, but you can never letdown in The NFL.
2) Chicago had a well researched defensive game plan, and
The Eagles didn't adjust.
Philly has 2 of the quickest recievers in the league,
but neither have an affinity for short crossing or
slant patterns. The Bears let their corners play deep,
sometimes 30 yards, which negated many Eagle
down field opportunites.
Philadelphia is not as good as they looked against
The Redskins or Giants, but are better than their
performance against The Bears.
The Texans still need improvement, are nicked up, and
have to travel 2500 miles on a short week.
Take The Eagles -8
