Handicapper: Nite Owl Sports
Sport: NBA Basketball
Game: San Antonio Spurs @ Orlando Magic - Thursday December 18, 2008 8:00 pm
Pick: 2 units ATS: Orlando Magic -3.5 (-110)
We love to go against Spurs in spots where we believe they are vulnerable, as they are still a “public team” with lots of betting support, so we typically get good “lines” whenever we bet against them. And during the latter part of last season we discovered some very distinct tendencies and scoring patterns for this Spurs team, which were reinforced in the playoffs and have statrted to show again this season. We have been waiting patiently for the perfect spot to pounce on this Spurs team that has struggled so far TY with injuries to key skill performers (mostly Ginobli and Parker), and still is not fully "in sync" even though both of those guys are back on the floor, and that spot was last night, in their 7 point loss to Hornets in New Orleans, where we had our BIGGEST WIN OF THE YEAR, for TEN UNITS on Hornets – two five unit picks, one ATS at –2 and one on money line at –130. Prior to last night’s game, the Spurs had played only two games TY visiting good teams, in which they are 1-1, victorious by 17 in Denver while betting blown out by 19 in Houston. But looking at their record LY in that mode, with basically the same team, Spurs were a crappy 6-12-1 ATS, including playoffs, with average MOL of 9 points (and they are just 3 or 3.5 point dogs here). In addition, there was a pretty distinct pattern in many of those games, particularly in the playoffs against the Hornets and Lakers, of Spurs either being close or even leading at the half, but then getting blown out in second half, mostly due to poor shooting. And Spurs did not disappoint us last night, as after three quarters of pretty good shooting and good all around play, resulting in a 7 point Spurs lead after three quarters, they totally self-destructed in the fourth, shooting under 30% and getting outscored 27-13 for the quarter, during which they threw up enough bricks to build a new arena next door, all leading to that exhilarating win for Hornets and +10 units for our subscribers. And that was just part of our MONSTER 5-0 NIGHT LAST NIGHT IN NBA, where we went 5-0 for +17.4 UNITS.
And tonite we find Spurs in another vulnerable spot, having to take a late night flight to Orlando after their come from ahead loss in the Big Easy, and then having to play a rested 19-6 Magic team. Moreover, Spurs have been pretty bad lately playing “back to backs,” already 1-4 ATS TY in that mode, and LY 5-12 ATS, incl 3-7 when the second game was on the road. On the other hand, Orlando will be well rested, with two days rest after returning home from their recent western trip. And Magic are 3-0-1 ATS TY (average win by 4.5 points in those four) when playing on two days rest, as well as 4-0 ATS when playing on at least one day of rest against an unrested team (like SA tonite).
So with all of these edges for Magic, why aren’t we “pounding” them like we did New Orleans last night? Well, there are two reasons. First and foremost is the “questionable” playing status of Magic star forward Dwight Howard, who has missed his last two games with a sprained knee and is officially listed as “questionable” for tonite’s game. Howard not only is leading his team in scoring (21 ppg) and rebounds (14 pg), but he had a field day in each of Magic’s games LY against Spurs, averaging 29 points and 19 rebounds. We will have an update on Howard’s condition and likelihood of playing tonite when we update our pick write up for our subscribers later today. The other reason for holding back on Magic is that they have not been that great at home vs the NBA’s top teams, and despite the “negatives” pointed out above for Spurs in negative scheduling situations like tonite, Spurs are still one of the NBA’s “elite” teams. Magic were just 4-5 ATS LY vs A teams at home (with an average margin of loss of 4 points), including a ten point home loss to SA, “gagged” at home vs Detroit in playoffs, and they are 0-1 (a 5 point loss to Houston) in their one home game TY vs a top team, in addition to two other home losses TY to “B” teams Portland and Atlanta..
So we’ll keep it at two units on Magic at -3.5 or less, but we might “unofficially” increase the units if we are able to get reliable information that Howard not only will play tonite but that his mobility, jumping and shooting no longer seem to be significantly impaired by his ankle injury.
One final note about a possible second half value bet on Magic -- while we cannot assume that this will happen again tonite, it should be noted that NO was behind at HT and after 3Q vs Spurs, only to bury them in the fourth quarter. So we suggest that whatever you plan to play on Magic, hold back half of it for a possible second half bet on Orlando, knowing that you won’t have a second half bet on them if they are up at the half and the HT score and second half line results in a worse adjusted game line on Magic than their pre-game point spread. But if the value is there for a second half bet on Magic (e.g, if adjusted game line based on HT score and 2H line is pick or better), and not only is Dwight Howard playing but there are no game ending first half injuries to him or any other key Magic player, then go for it.