Service Plays Thursday 12/18/08

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The Gr8 1
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KBHoops

NBA
5* Suns +4.5 **POD**
3* Spurs +3

NCAA Hoops
5* Montana +2.5
5* S. Alabama -4
3* Niagra -3.5
3* Troy -2

NFL
3* Jacksonville +6
 
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CHARLIE

nfl. colts @ jaguars over 44 (500* )
nfl. jaguars+6 (30*)
cbb. louisville-15' (20*)
cbb. mississippi st+4' (20*)
nba. portland-5 (10*)
nba. spurs+4 (10*) Bonus Play
 
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Lance's Lock


Overall record: 709-603-25

Current streak: 1 loss

Todays play: The Jaguars +6'
 
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Mr A's

Games: Selections
San Antonio (15-9) at Orlando (19-6) Pick: Orlando Magic -2
Phoenix (15-10) at Portland (16-10), Pick: Phoenix Suns +4
 
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Winning Angle NBA & NHL for Thursday

NBA

Play Orlando (-3.5) over San Antonio* (Top NBA Play)

NCAA Hoops

Play Evansville (+30.5) over North Carolina* (Top NCAA Play)
Play Mississippi State (+5.5) over Cincinnati

NHL
Play Boston (-245) over Toronto* (Top NHL Play)



Play on Jacksonville (+6) over Indianapolis*
8:15 P.M. EST Kick-Off (Top NFL Guarantee)

Indianapolis has lost 7 of the last 9 games against the spread as a favorite and they have also lost 5 of the last 6 games against the spread when the total is between 42.5 and 49 points. Indianapolis has lost 23 of the last 32 games against the spread when playing in the last two weeks of the regular season and they have also lost 12 of the last 16 games against the spread vs. division opponents over the last three seasons.
 
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maddux


#707 - NCAA - 3 units on Evansville +30

#711 - NCAA - 3 units on Florida International +12.5
#719 - NCAA - 3 units on Pepperdine +13.5
 
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Handicapper: Nite Owl Sports
Sport: NBA Basketball
Game: San Antonio Spurs @ Orlando Magic - Thursday December 18, 2008 8:00 pm
Pick: 2 units ATS: Orlando Magic -3.5 (-110)



We love to go against Spurs in spots where we believe they are vulnerable, as they are still a “public team” with lots of betting support, so we typically get good “lines” whenever we bet against them. And during the latter part of last season we discovered some very distinct tendencies and scoring patterns for this Spurs team, which were reinforced in the playoffs and have statrted to show again this season. We have been waiting patiently for the perfect spot to pounce on this Spurs team that has struggled so far TY with injuries to key skill performers (mostly Ginobli and Parker), and still is not fully "in sync" even though both of those guys are back on the floor, and that spot was last night, in their 7 point loss to Hornets in New Orleans, where we had our BIGGEST WIN OF THE YEAR, for TEN UNITS on Hornets – two five unit picks, one ATS at –2 and one on money line at –130. Prior to last night’s game, the Spurs had played only two games TY visiting good teams, in which they are 1-1, victorious by 17 in Denver while betting blown out by 19 in Houston. But looking at their record LY in that mode, with basically the same team, Spurs were a crappy 6-12-1 ATS, including playoffs, with average MOL of 9 points (and they are just 3 or 3.5 point dogs here). In addition, there was a pretty distinct pattern in many of those games, particularly in the playoffs against the Hornets and Lakers, of Spurs either being close or even leading at the half, but then getting blown out in second half, mostly due to poor shooting. And Spurs did not disappoint us last night, as after three quarters of pretty good shooting and good all around play, resulting in a 7 point Spurs lead after three quarters, they totally self-destructed in the fourth, shooting under 30% and getting outscored 27-13 for the quarter, during which they threw up enough bricks to build a new arena next door, all leading to that exhilarating win for Hornets and +10 units for our subscribers. And that was just part of our MONSTER 5-0 NIGHT LAST NIGHT IN NBA, where we went 5-0 for +17.4 UNITS.

And tonite we find Spurs in another vulnerable spot, having to take a late night flight to Orlando after their come from ahead loss in the Big Easy, and then having to play a rested 19-6 Magic team. Moreover, Spurs have been pretty bad lately playing “back to backs,” already 1-4 ATS TY in that mode, and LY 5-12 ATS, incl 3-7 when the second game was on the road. On the other hand, Orlando will be well rested, with two days rest after returning home from their recent western trip. And Magic are 3-0-1 ATS TY (average win by 4.5 points in those four) when playing on two days rest, as well as 4-0 ATS when playing on at least one day of rest against an unrested team (like SA tonite).

So with all of these edges for Magic, why aren’t we “pounding” them like we did New Orleans last night? Well, there are two reasons. First and foremost is the “questionable” playing status of Magic star forward Dwight Howard, who has missed his last two games with a sprained knee and is officially listed as “questionable” for tonite’s game. Howard not only is leading his team in scoring (21 ppg) and rebounds (14 pg), but he had a field day in each of Magic’s games LY against Spurs, averaging 29 points and 19 rebounds. We will have an update on Howard’s condition and likelihood of playing tonite when we update our pick write up for our subscribers later today. The other reason for holding back on Magic is that they have not been that great at home vs the NBA’s top teams, and despite the “negatives” pointed out above for Spurs in negative scheduling situations like tonite, Spurs are still one of the NBA’s “elite” teams. Magic were just 4-5 ATS LY vs A teams at home (with an average margin of loss of 4 points), including a ten point home loss to SA, “gagged” at home vs Detroit in playoffs, and they are 0-1 (a 5 point loss to Houston) in their one home game TY vs a top team, in addition to two other home losses TY to “B” teams Portland and Atlanta..

So we’ll keep it at two units on Magic at -3.5 or less, but we might “unofficially” increase the units if we are able to get reliable information that Howard not only will play tonite but that his mobility, jumping and shooting no longer seem to be significantly impaired by his ankle injury.

One final note about a possible second half value bet on Magic -- while we cannot assume that this will happen again tonite, it should be noted that NO was behind at HT and after 3Q vs Spurs, only to bury them in the fourth quarter. So we suggest that whatever you plan to play on Magic, hold back half of it for a possible second half bet on Orlando, knowing that you won’t have a second half bet on them if they are up at the half and the HT score and second half line results in a worse adjusted game line on Magic than their pre-game point spread. But if the value is there for a second half bet on Magic (e.g, if adjusted game line based on HT score and 2H line is pick or better), and not only is Dwight Howard playing but there are no game ending first half injuries to him or any other key Magic player, then go for it.
 

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just wanted to give people the heads up, I see alot of cinn/miss st picks. that game starts at 630,last week I missed out on a cash with s carolina starting at 600
 

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kindergartencapper

Cincy under 136
Niagara over 129
Arkansas St over 117
Fresno St. under 145.5
 

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Gold Medal Club-CBB 715 N.Texas HUGE, NFL Jacksonville (REG) NHL 58 Atlanta HUGE
 

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Kanesline
(POD)

12/18/08

NFL

NFL Channel

Thursday Night Football

Indianapolis Colts at
Jacksonville Jaguars

Projected Spread:

Indianapolis Colts by 3

Projected Total: 45

Projected Score:

Indianapolis Colts 24

Jacksonville Jaguars 21

Pick: Take 3 point buy OVER 41

System Pick: Take Indianapolis Colts moneyline -240

System Pick: Take Jacksonville Jaguars +6



Trend to Watch

The OVER is 18-6-2 on monday and thursday night games.

NBA

TNT Thursday Night Game

San Antonio Spurs at Orlando Magic

Projected Spread: Orlando Magic by 3

Projected Total: 195

Projected Score:

San Antonio Spurs 96

Orlando Magic 99

Pick: Take Orlando Magic moneyline -132

System Pick: Take Orlando Magic -2.5

System Pick: Take OVER 192

System Picks

Basketball


12/18/08 NBA Orlando Magic -2.5

12/18/08 NBA San Antonio Spurs/Orlando Magic
OVER 192

12/18/08 NCAAB Old Miss Rebels +15.5

12/18/08 NCAAB Old Miss Rebels/Louisville Cardinals OVER 150
 

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Jeff Benton

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

15 Dime: JAGUARS (plus the points vs. Colts) ... NOTE: If you can get the Jaguars at +7, by all means, grab it, even if it means buying the hook to jump from 6 1/2 to 7. As you know, 7 is a key number in the NFL, and it's worth protecting your investment.
5 Dime: MAGIC (minus the points vs. Spurs)
5 Dime: TRAIL BLAZERS (minus the points vs. Suns)
Jaguars
My long-term clients likely know by now that I’m hardly the biggest Jacksonville Jaguars fan. When the so-called experts were touting the Jags as a Super Bowl contender prior to the season, I was the one waving the red flags, believe the team was way overhyped. Sure enough, Jacksonville is 5-9 SU and 4-10 AS, including 2-5 SU and 1-6 ATS at home – that one home cover coming in Sunday’s 20-16 come-from-behind win against the Packers as a 2½-point underdog. And that victory snapped a four-game SU and ATS losing skid for the Jags.

All this said, I simply cannot trust the Colts to cover this kind of pointspread on the road against a division rival for whom tonight’s game, in all essence, is their playoff game. Yes, Indy has won seven straight games, the last two being double-digit routs of the lowly Lions and Bengals at home. However, if you watched Sunday’s game against winless Detroit, you know that Indianapolis had to fight a full 60 minutes, as the game was tied at 21 until midway through the fourth quarter and remained a seven-point game until the Colts kicked a field goal with 39 seconds to play.

Take away the last two weeks, and Indy’s other five wins during its current streak came by margins of 3, 4, 6, 3 and 4 points against the Patriots, Steelers, Texans, Chargers and Browns, respectively. And even though the Colts are 5-2 SU on the road in 2008, not one of those five victories was by more than four points.

Also important to note: The Jaguars have not been intimidated one bit over the years when facing their division rivals. They’ve split the last four meetings (3-1 ATS) – including a last-second 23-21 victory at Indianapolis back in Week 3 as a four-point underdog. Going back to 2003 – so this encompasses the time when the Colts were an elite NFL team – Jacksonville is 4-6 SU in the last 10 meetings, with only two of the last six defeats being by more than a touchdown. Jack Del Rio’s team is also an impressive 9-3-1 ATS in the last 13 battles with Indy.

The Jags showed a lot of heart in rallying to beat the Packers last week, and as noted above, with this being a prime-time nationally televised contest, this is their playoff game. They would love nothing more than to put a dent in the Colts’ postseason hopes, so I’m not worried one bit about Jacksonville’s motivation. Nor am I worried about the Jags’ ability to move the football, as they gashed the Colts defense for 236 rushing yards in that Week 3 victory, which allowed them to control the ball for more than 41 minutes. Well, Indy’s run defense remains a weakness (126.8 rushing yards per game allowed), so I expect a healthy dose of Maurice Jones Drew tonight.

At the same time, Indy, which needs a win to seal a wild-card berth, comes into this one banged up, with stars like RB Joseph Addai, hard-hitting and run-stuffing safety Bob Sanders questionable with injuries, and WR Marvin Harrison ruled out with a hamstring injury.

Finally, the Jaguars have been a strong home underdog over the years, going 9-3 ATS after Sunday’s win over Green Bay. Meanwhile, the Colts are just 1-5 ATS in their last six games as a favorite and 2-5-1 ATS in their last eight games when laying points on the road against AFC South rivals. All of the pressure is on the Colts tonight, which makes Jacksonville all the more dangerous. Take the points with the Jaguars, and if the defense can put pressure on Manning and force a couple of turnovers, I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see an outright upset.
 

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Mississippi coach Kennedy arrested for alleged assault against cabbie
Dec. 18, 2008
CBSSports.com wire reports



CINCINNATI -- Police arrested Mississippi men's basketball coach Andy Kennedy early Thursday after a cab driver said the coach punched him while calling him "bin Laden" and other racial insults.

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A pretrial hearing has been set for Jan. 16. Kennedy was charged with a first-degree misdemeanor count of assault, which would carry a maximum sentence of six months in jail for conviction.

Kennedy denied the allegations and his attorney, Mike Allen, entered a written plea of not guilty in Hamilton County Municipal Court on Thursday.

Kennedy, a former assistant and interim head coach at Cincinnati, was set to coach the Rebels against No. 9 Louisville in the SEC/Big East Invitational later Thursday.

"I regret this situation," Kennedy said in a statement released by Ole Miss. "The focus should be on the players and the game, not on me. I vehemently deny the charges levied against me, and am completely confident that I will be fully exonerated of all charges."

The complaint filed in Municipal Court alleges that Kennedy assaulted Mohamed Moctar Ould Jiddou and "punched victim with a closed fist while shouting racial slurs." Kennedy, 40, was arrested at 1:15 a.m., police documents show.

"I just don't think it passes the smell test," Allen said. He said Kennedy did not hit or slur anyone.

Police subsequently arrested Bill Armstrong, director of operations for the basketball team, on a charge of disorderly conduct. Armstrong, 31, was intoxicated and had been ejected from the Lodge Bar Cincinnati downtown, and had continued taunting the taxi driver, the police report stated. Allen also entered a not guilty plea for him and his pretrial hearing was also set for Jan. 16.

Alex Moller, the bar's general manager, confirmed that Kennedy had been there.

"Kennedy left the bar amicably. After that, I don't know what happened," Moller said, adding that he didn't know details on Armstrong.

Jiddou, a 25-year-old native of the northwest African country of Mauritania, told reporters that the altercation broke out after Kennedy hailed him and then asked him to pick up his friends. When four other people tried to get in, Jiddou said, he told them he couldn't take that many because he only had four seat belts.

Jiddou said Kennedy then began yelling, cussing him and calling him "bin Laden, Saddam Hussein," and hit him in the face. Police said the left side of Jiddou's face was swollen; at his northern Kentucky home more than 12 hours later, he had no apparent injuries and said he wasn't hurt physically but was upset to be compared to the terrorist leader.

"(Osama) bin Laden killed 3,000 people in this country. I never hurt no one," Jiddou said. "How can he tell me that? I'm working hard. I don't want to hear anything like that."

He said he didn't know who Kennedy was until a police officer told him hours after the arrest.

Rusty O'Brien, a Louisville, Ky., attorney, said Jiddou is a legal resident of the United States. Jiddou said he has been in this country for seven years. O'Brien met with Jiddou on Thursday to discuss his legal options.

Ole Miss athletic director Pete Boone said Kennedy's entire coaching staff witnessed the altercation.

"Clearly, this is an unfortunate situation," said Boone, who was in Cincinnati. "However, after a full discussion with Andy Kennedy and his staff, who were with him, I have the utmost confidence that once all the facts are known, coach Kennedy will be cleared of all charges
 

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