Handicapper: Nite Owl Sports
Sport: NBA Basketball
Game: San Antonio Spurs @ Orlando Magic - Thursday December 18, 2008 8:00 pm
Pick: 2 units ATS: Orlando Magic -3.5 (-110)
We love to go against Spurs in spots where we believe they are vulnerable, as they are still a “public team” with lots of betting support, so we typically get good “lines” whenever we bet against them. And during the latter part of last season we discovered some very distinct tendencies and scoring patterns for this Spurs team, which were reinforced in the playoffs and have statrted to show again this season. We have been waiting patiently for the perfect spot to pounce on this Spurs team that has struggled so far TY with injuries to key skill performers (mostly Ginobli and Parker), and still is not fully "in sync" even though both of those guys are back on the floor, and that spot was last night, in their 7 point loss to Hornets in New Orleans, where we had our BIGGEST WIN OF THE YEAR, for TEN UNITS on Hornets – two five unit picks, one ATS at –2 and one on money line at –130. Prior to last night’s game, the Spurs had played only two games TY visiting good teams, in which they are 1-1, victorious by 17 in Denver while betting blown out by 19 in Houston. But looking at their record LY in that mode, with basically the same team, Spurs were a crappy 6-12-1 ATS, including playoffs, with average MOL of 9 points (and they are just 3 or 3.5 point dogs here). In addition, there was a pretty distinct pattern in many of those games, particularly in the playoffs against the Hornets and Lakers, of Spurs either being close or even leading at the half, but then getting blown out in second half, mostly due to poor shooting. And Spurs did not disappoint us last night, as after three quarters of pretty good shooting and good all around play, resulting in a 7 point Spurs lead after three quarters, they totally self-destructed in the fourth, shooting under 30% and getting outscored 27-13 for the quarter, during which they threw up enough bricks to build a new arena next door, all leading to that exhilarating win for Hornets and +10 units for our subscribers. And that was just part of our MONSTER 5-0 NIGHT LAST NIGHT IN NBA, where we went 5-0 for +17.4 UNITS.
And tonite we find Spurs in another vulnerable spot, having to take a late night flight to Orlando after their come from ahead loss in the Big Easy, and then having to play a rested 19-6 Magic team. Moreover, Spurs have been pretty bad lately playing “back to backs,” already 1-4 ATS TY in that mode, and LY 5-12 ATS, incl 3-7 when the second game was on the road. On the other hand, Orlando will be well rested, with two days rest after returning home from their recent western trip. And Magic are 3-0-1 ATS TY (average win by 4.5 points in those four) when playing on two days rest, as well as 4-0 ATS when playing on at least one day of rest against an unrested team (like SA tonite).
So with all of these edges for Magic, why aren’t we “pounding” them like we did New Orleans last night? Well, there are two reasons. First and foremost is the “questionable” playing status of Magic star forward Dwight Howard, who has missed his last two games with a sprained knee and is officially listed as “questionable” for tonite’s game. Howard not only is leading his team in scoring (21 ppg) and rebounds (14 pg), but he had a field day in each of Magic’s games LY against Spurs, averaging 29 points and 19 rebounds. We will have an update on Howard’s condition and likelihood of playing tonite when we update our pick write up for our subscribers later today. The other reason for holding back on Magic is that they have not been that great at home vs the NBA’s top teams, and despite the “negatives” pointed out above for Spurs in negative scheduling situations like tonite, Spurs are still one of the NBA’s “elite” teams. Magic were just 4-5 ATS LY vs A teams at home (with an average margin of loss of 4 points), including a ten point home loss to SA, “gagged” at home vs Detroit in playoffs, and they are 0-1 (a 5 point loss to Houston) in their one home game TY vs a top team, in addition to two other home losses TY to “B” teams Portland and Atlanta..
So we’ll keep it at two units on Magic at -3.5 or less, but we might “unofficially” increase the units if we are able to get reliable information that Howard not only will play tonite but that his mobility, jumping and shooting no longer seem to be significantly impaired by his ankle injury.
One final note about a possible second half value bet on Magic -- while we cannot assume that this will happen again tonite, it should be noted that NO was behind at HT and after 3Q vs Spurs, only to bury them in the fourth quarter. So we suggest that whatever you plan to play on Magic, hold back half of it for a possible second half bet on Orlando, knowing that you won’t have a second half bet on them if they are up at the half and the HT score and second half line results in a worse adjusted game line on Magic than their pre-game point spread. But if the value is there for a second half bet on Magic (e.g, if adjusted game line based on HT score and 2H line is pick or better), and not only is Dwight Howard playing but there are no game ending first half injuries to him or any other key Magic player, then go for it.
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Sport: NBA Basketball
Game: San Antonio Spurs @ Orlando Magic - Thursday December 18, 2008 8:00 pm
Pick: 2 units ATS: Orlando Magic -3.5 (-110)
We love to go against Spurs in spots where we believe they are vulnerable, as they are still a “public team” with lots of betting support, so we typically get good “lines” whenever we bet against them. And during the latter part of last season we discovered some very distinct tendencies and scoring patterns for this Spurs team, which were reinforced in the playoffs and have statrted to show again this season. We have been waiting patiently for the perfect spot to pounce on this Spurs team that has struggled so far TY with injuries to key skill performers (mostly Ginobli and Parker), and still is not fully "in sync" even though both of those guys are back on the floor, and that spot was last night, in their 7 point loss to Hornets in New Orleans, where we had our BIGGEST WIN OF THE YEAR, for TEN UNITS on Hornets – two five unit picks, one ATS at –2 and one on money line at –130. Prior to last night’s game, the Spurs had played only two games TY visiting good teams, in which they are 1-1, victorious by 17 in Denver while betting blown out by 19 in Houston. But looking at their record LY in that mode, with basically the same team, Spurs were a crappy 6-12-1 ATS, including playoffs, with average MOL of 9 points (and they are just 3 or 3.5 point dogs here). In addition, there was a pretty distinct pattern in many of those games, particularly in the playoffs against the Hornets and Lakers, of Spurs either being close or even leading at the half, but then getting blown out in second half, mostly due to poor shooting. And Spurs did not disappoint us last night, as after three quarters of pretty good shooting and good all around play, resulting in a 7 point Spurs lead after three quarters, they totally self-destructed in the fourth, shooting under 30% and getting outscored 27-13 for the quarter, during which they threw up enough bricks to build a new arena next door, all leading to that exhilarating win for Hornets and +10 units for our subscribers. And that was just part of our MONSTER 5-0 NIGHT LAST NIGHT IN NBA, where we went 5-0 for +17.4 UNITS.
And tonite we find Spurs in another vulnerable spot, having to take a late night flight to Orlando after their come from ahead loss in the Big Easy, and then having to play a rested 19-6 Magic team. Moreover, Spurs have been pretty bad lately playing “back to backs,” already 1-4 ATS TY in that mode, and LY 5-12 ATS, incl 3-7 when the second game was on the road. On the other hand, Orlando will be well rested, with two days rest after returning home from their recent western trip. And Magic are 3-0-1 ATS TY (average win by 4.5 points in those four) when playing on two days rest, as well as 4-0 ATS when playing on at least one day of rest against an unrested team (like SA tonite).
So with all of these edges for Magic, why aren’t we “pounding” them like we did New Orleans last night? Well, there are two reasons. First and foremost is the “questionable” playing status of Magic star forward Dwight Howard, who has missed his last two games with a sprained knee and is officially listed as “questionable” for tonite’s game. Howard not only is leading his team in scoring (21 ppg) and rebounds (14 pg), but he had a field day in each of Magic’s games LY against Spurs, averaging 29 points and 19 rebounds. We will have an update on Howard’s condition and likelihood of playing tonite when we update our pick write up for our subscribers later today. The other reason for holding back on Magic is that they have not been that great at home vs the NBA’s top teams, and despite the “negatives” pointed out above for Spurs in negative scheduling situations like tonite, Spurs are still one of the NBA’s “elite” teams. Magic were just 4-5 ATS LY vs A teams at home (with an average margin of loss of 4 points), including a ten point home loss to SA, “gagged” at home vs Detroit in playoffs, and they are 0-1 (a 5 point loss to Houston) in their one home game TY vs a top team, in addition to two other home losses TY to “B” teams Portland and Atlanta..
So we’ll keep it at two units on Magic at -3.5 or less, but we might “unofficially” increase the units if we are able to get reliable information that Howard not only will play tonite but that his mobility, jumping and shooting no longer seem to be significantly impaired by his ankle injury.
One final note about a possible second half value bet on Magic -- while we cannot assume that this will happen again tonite, it should be noted that NO was behind at HT and after 3Q vs Spurs, only to bury them in the fourth quarter. So we suggest that whatever you plan to play on Magic, hold back half of it for a possible second half bet on Orlando, knowing that you won’t have a second half bet on them if they are up at the half and the HT score and second half line results in a worse adjusted game line on Magic than their pre-game point spread. But if the value is there for a second half bet on Magic (e.g, if adjusted game line based on HT score and 2H line is pick or better), and not only is Dwight Howard playing but there are no game ending first half injuries to him or any other key Magic player, then go for it.
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Hunter Price
(POD) PHOENIX SUNS & PORTLAND TRAIL BLAZERS UNDER 201.5
Hold on a minute taking the under in a Suns game, are you serious? Why Yes I am. This number is screaming trap. The Suns have played to the over in 9 of t heir last 10 games and they set this line at just over 200? The blazers know that they can't get in a run and gun kind of game and hope to stick with Phoenix and as such they will be stressing defense on their night off (yesterday). Part of this play is predicated on thinking the Blazers will control their home court and slam the breaks on the pace of the game and stifle the tempo of the suns. Also Richardson has had little time to adjust to his new teammates and will cause a little problem in keeping the team running which furthers our under. Ultimately, I see the Blazers controlling the game from start to finish and getting a big lead that will allow them to milk the shot clock in the fourth quarter causing the game to go under.
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(POD) PHOENIX SUNS & PORTLAND TRAIL BLAZERS UNDER 201.5
Hold on a minute taking the under in a Suns game, are you serious? Why Yes I am. This number is screaming trap. The Suns have played to the over in 9 of t heir last 10 games and they set this line at just over 200? The blazers know that they can't get in a run and gun kind of game and hope to stick with Phoenix and as such they will be stressing defense on their night off (yesterday). Part of this play is predicated on thinking the Blazers will control their home court and slam the breaks on the pace of the game and stifle the tempo of the suns. Also Richardson has had little time to adjust to his new teammates and will cause a little problem in keeping the team running which furthers our under. Ultimately, I see the Blazers controlling the game from start to finish and getting a big lead that will allow them to milk the shot clock in the fourth quarter causing the game to go under.
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Hunter Price
(POD) PHOENIX SUNS & PORTLAND TRAIL BLAZERS UNDER 201.5
Hold on a minute taking the under in a Suns game, are you serious? Why Yes I am. This number is screaming trap. The Suns have played to the over in 9 of t heir last 10 games and they set this line at just over 200? The blazers know that they can't get in a run and gun kind of game and hope to stick with Phoenix and as such they will be stressing defense on their night off (yesterday). Part of this play is predicated on thinking the Blazers will control their home court and slam the breaks on the pace of the game and stifle the tempo of the suns. Also Richardson has had little time to adjust to his new teammates and will cause a little problem in keeping the team running which furthers our under. Ultimately, I see the Blazers controlling the game from start to finish and getting a big lead that will allow them to milk the shot clock in the fourth quarter causing the game to go under.
(POD) PHOENIX SUNS & PORTLAND TRAIL BLAZERS UNDER 201.5
Hold on a minute taking the under in a Suns game, are you serious? Why Yes I am. This number is screaming trap. The Suns have played to the over in 9 of t heir last 10 games and they set this line at just over 200? The blazers know that they can't get in a run and gun kind of game and hope to stick with Phoenix and as such they will be stressing defense on their night off (yesterday). Part of this play is predicated on thinking the Blazers will control their home court and slam the breaks on the pace of the game and stifle the tempo of the suns. Also Richardson has had little time to adjust to his new teammates and will cause a little problem in keeping the team running which furthers our under. Ultimately, I see the Blazers controlling the game from start to finish and getting a big lead that will allow them to milk the shot clock in the fourth quarter causing the game to go under.
SPORTS ADVISORS
Indianapolis (10-4, 6-8 ATS) at Jacksonville (5-9, 4-10 ATS)
The red-hot Colts go after their eighth straight victory when they travel to Alltel Stadium for an AFC South contest against the struggling Jaguars.
Indianapolis dropped Detroit 31-21 Sunday, but failed to cash as an overwhelming 16½-point chalk, falling to 3-4 ATS during its seven-game SU surge. QB Peyton Manning (28 of 37, 318 yards, 1 TD, 0 INTs) was typically steady, helping the Colts outgain the Lions by nearly 100 yards (421-323), and TE Dallas Clark (12 catches, 142 yards, 1 TD) and WR Reggie Wayne (7 catches, 104 yards) both had big days. Still, the Colts blew a 21-10 halftime lead and scored the final 10 points to break a 21-21 tie.
Jacksonville, in the rare role of home underdog, beat Green Bay 20-16 catching 2½ points on Sunday, halting a four-game SU and ATS freefall that essentially ended the team’s season. QB David Garrard (21 of 33, 238 yards, 2 TDs, 0 INTs) had one of his best games in weeks as he led a turnover-free offense. WR Dennis Northcutt (5 catches, 127 yards, 1 TD) had a strong day, and RB Maurice Jones-Drew had two fourth-quarter TDs (1 receiving, 1 rushing) to clinch the win.
Jacksonville got a last-second 51-yard field goal from Josh Scobee to upset the Colts 23-21 as a four-point road underdog back in Week 3, and the Jaguars have now cashed in three of the last four meetings in this rivalry (2-2 SU). The road team is 6-2-1 ATS in the last nine meetings and the underdog is 5-2-1 ATS in the last eight clashes.
The Colts and the Jaguars both have middling offenses this season, with Indy averaging 23.1 points (17th) and 327.3 yards per game (18th), and Jacksonville just a shade behind in yards per game at 318.0 (20th) while averaging 19.4 ppg (24th). Both squads are in the top half of the league in total defense, with Indianapolis giving up 317.2 ypg (11th) and Jacksonville yielding 319.1 ypg (15th). Indy is allowing 19.6 ppg (10th), and Jacksonville is giving up 22.1 ppg (19th).
The Colts are on ATS slides of 1-4 in division play, 1-5 as a favorite, 2-5-1 as a road chalk against AFC South foes and 4-10 in December, but they are 5-0-1 ATS in their last six Thursday contests. The Jaguars, meanwhile, are on pointspread declines of 1-4 overall, 1-6 at home, 0-5 after a SU win, 0-5 after an ATS win and 1-5 in the AFC South, but they are 9-3-1 ATS in their last 12 games as a home ‘dog.
The over has hit in the Colts’ last four division games and four of their last six on the road, and the over for Jacksonville is on runs of 7-2 as an underdog, 6-2 as a home pup, 9-3 in December and 11-4-2 against winning teams. Also, the over is 5-2 in the last seven clashes between these teams at Alltel Stadium.
Finally, the over is 18-5-2 in non-Sunday NFL games this year.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
COLLEGE BASKETBALL
Mississippi (7-3, 4-4 ATS) vs. (9) Louisville (6-1, 4-3 ATS) (at Cincinnati)
The SEC/Big East Invitational continues, with Louisville meeting Mississippi on the neutral floor of Cincinnati’s U.S. Bank Arena.
The ninth-ranked Cardinals dropped Austin Peay 94-75 Saturday for their fourth straight win, but they failed to cover as a heavy 23-point home chalk, their second straight ATS setback. Since a stunning 68-54 upset loss at Western Kentucky on Nov. 30, Louisville has run off four straight victories by an average of 30 points per game (87.5-57.5). Against the Governors, Louisville’s leading scorer Samardo Samuels (17.0 ppg) had 21 points and 12 rebounds, while Preston Knowles contributed 21 points and Terrence Williams had 20 points and eight assists.
Mississippi held off Alabama State 85-81 Monday in a non-lined game, bouncing back from Saturday’s 103-70 blowout loss at New Mexico, and the Rebels have alternated SU wins and losses over their last five games (2-1 ATS in lined contests). Against Alabama State, David Huertas (21.0 ppg) led four players in double figures with 25 points, and Ole Miss hit 20 of 25 free throws, helping make up for Alabama State’s 56.9 percent shooting from the field.
These schools haven’t squared off on the hardwood since a home-and-home series a decade ago, with Mississippi winning and cashing as a favorite in both contests.
For the season, Louisville is averaging 80.0 ppg while giving up just 56.1 (15th in the nation), and the Cards have held opponents to just 25.8 percent shooting from 3-point range, which ranks fifth nationally. Mississippi is averaging 77.5 ppg and allowing 72.9.
The Cardinals are on ATS rolls of 21-8-1 overall, 6-1-1 after a non-cover, 13-5-1 against winning teams, 12-5 after a SU win and 9-4 in non-conference play. The Rebels, meanwhile, have cashed in seven of their last nine games against winning teams, but they are on pointspread skids of 0-4 on Thursday and 2-6 at neutral sites.
The under for Louisville is on runs of 5-1 overall, 11-3 against the SEC, 6-2-1 after a SU win and 5-2-1 on neutral floors. On the flip side, the over for Ole Miss is on streaks of 13-3 overall, 5-1 at neutral sites and 23-9-1 in non-conference action.
ATS ADVANTAGE: LOUISVILLE
Indianapolis (10-4, 6-8 ATS) at Jacksonville (5-9, 4-10 ATS)
The red-hot Colts go after their eighth straight victory when they travel to Alltel Stadium for an AFC South contest against the struggling Jaguars.
Indianapolis dropped Detroit 31-21 Sunday, but failed to cash as an overwhelming 16½-point chalk, falling to 3-4 ATS during its seven-game SU surge. QB Peyton Manning (28 of 37, 318 yards, 1 TD, 0 INTs) was typically steady, helping the Colts outgain the Lions by nearly 100 yards (421-323), and TE Dallas Clark (12 catches, 142 yards, 1 TD) and WR Reggie Wayne (7 catches, 104 yards) both had big days. Still, the Colts blew a 21-10 halftime lead and scored the final 10 points to break a 21-21 tie.
Jacksonville, in the rare role of home underdog, beat Green Bay 20-16 catching 2½ points on Sunday, halting a four-game SU and ATS freefall that essentially ended the team’s season. QB David Garrard (21 of 33, 238 yards, 2 TDs, 0 INTs) had one of his best games in weeks as he led a turnover-free offense. WR Dennis Northcutt (5 catches, 127 yards, 1 TD) had a strong day, and RB Maurice Jones-Drew had two fourth-quarter TDs (1 receiving, 1 rushing) to clinch the win.
Jacksonville got a last-second 51-yard field goal from Josh Scobee to upset the Colts 23-21 as a four-point road underdog back in Week 3, and the Jaguars have now cashed in three of the last four meetings in this rivalry (2-2 SU). The road team is 6-2-1 ATS in the last nine meetings and the underdog is 5-2-1 ATS in the last eight clashes.
The Colts and the Jaguars both have middling offenses this season, with Indy averaging 23.1 points (17th) and 327.3 yards per game (18th), and Jacksonville just a shade behind in yards per game at 318.0 (20th) while averaging 19.4 ppg (24th). Both squads are in the top half of the league in total defense, with Indianapolis giving up 317.2 ypg (11th) and Jacksonville yielding 319.1 ypg (15th). Indy is allowing 19.6 ppg (10th), and Jacksonville is giving up 22.1 ppg (19th).
The Colts are on ATS slides of 1-4 in division play, 1-5 as a favorite, 2-5-1 as a road chalk against AFC South foes and 4-10 in December, but they are 5-0-1 ATS in their last six Thursday contests. The Jaguars, meanwhile, are on pointspread declines of 1-4 overall, 1-6 at home, 0-5 after a SU win, 0-5 after an ATS win and 1-5 in the AFC South, but they are 9-3-1 ATS in their last 12 games as a home ‘dog.
The over has hit in the Colts’ last four division games and four of their last six on the road, and the over for Jacksonville is on runs of 7-2 as an underdog, 6-2 as a home pup, 9-3 in December and 11-4-2 against winning teams. Also, the over is 5-2 in the last seven clashes between these teams at Alltel Stadium.
Finally, the over is 18-5-2 in non-Sunday NFL games this year.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
COLLEGE BASKETBALL
Mississippi (7-3, 4-4 ATS) vs. (9) Louisville (6-1, 4-3 ATS) (at Cincinnati)
The SEC/Big East Invitational continues, with Louisville meeting Mississippi on the neutral floor of Cincinnati’s U.S. Bank Arena.
The ninth-ranked Cardinals dropped Austin Peay 94-75 Saturday for their fourth straight win, but they failed to cover as a heavy 23-point home chalk, their second straight ATS setback. Since a stunning 68-54 upset loss at Western Kentucky on Nov. 30, Louisville has run off four straight victories by an average of 30 points per game (87.5-57.5). Against the Governors, Louisville’s leading scorer Samardo Samuels (17.0 ppg) had 21 points and 12 rebounds, while Preston Knowles contributed 21 points and Terrence Williams had 20 points and eight assists.
Mississippi held off Alabama State 85-81 Monday in a non-lined game, bouncing back from Saturday’s 103-70 blowout loss at New Mexico, and the Rebels have alternated SU wins and losses over their last five games (2-1 ATS in lined contests). Against Alabama State, David Huertas (21.0 ppg) led four players in double figures with 25 points, and Ole Miss hit 20 of 25 free throws, helping make up for Alabama State’s 56.9 percent shooting from the field.
These schools haven’t squared off on the hardwood since a home-and-home series a decade ago, with Mississippi winning and cashing as a favorite in both contests.
For the season, Louisville is averaging 80.0 ppg while giving up just 56.1 (15th in the nation), and the Cards have held opponents to just 25.8 percent shooting from 3-point range, which ranks fifth nationally. Mississippi is averaging 77.5 ppg and allowing 72.9.
The Cardinals are on ATS rolls of 21-8-1 overall, 6-1-1 after a non-cover, 13-5-1 against winning teams, 12-5 after a SU win and 9-4 in non-conference play. The Rebels, meanwhile, have cashed in seven of their last nine games against winning teams, but they are on pointspread skids of 0-4 on Thursday and 2-6 at neutral sites.
The under for Louisville is on runs of 5-1 overall, 11-3 against the SEC, 6-2-1 after a SU win and 5-2-1 on neutral floors. On the flip side, the over for Ole Miss is on streaks of 13-3 overall, 5-1 at neutral sites and 23-9-1 in non-conference action.
ATS ADVANTAGE: LOUISVILLE
