Jeff Benton
Thursday's winners ...
15 Dime: BEARS (minus the points vs. Saints)
5 Dime: WIZARDS (plus the points vs. Celtics)
Bears
I don’t quite get the short line the oddsmakers have hung on this game. The Saints have won just once in six tries on the road this season, and that was a 30-20 victory at crappy Kansas City a month ago when the Saints outgained the Chiefs by a “whopping” 10 yards. True, New Orleans was competitive in three other road losses – 29-24 at Washington in Week 2; 34-32 at Denver in Week 3; and 23-20 at Tampa Bay two weeks ago. However, those three games – heck, all six of New Orleans’ roadies this year – were played in optimal weather conditions.
Tonight, the Saints take their precision passing attack to Soldier Field, and even though there’s no snow in the forecast, game-time temperatures will be below freezing. And with the unpredictable winds in Chicago, it’s pretty safe to assume that wind will be some kind of factor tonight, which really impacts the pass-happy Saints and works in favor of the run-first Bears.
Also, consider how winter trips to Chicago have turned out for the Saints the last two years. Back in January 2007, the Saints invaded Soldier Field for the NFC Championship Game … and lost 39-14 as a 2½-point underdog, in large part because they lost the turnover battle 4-0. Then 11 months later, New Orleans returned to Chicago for a Week 17 meeting with the Bears … and lost 33-25 as a one-point favorite, with QB Drew Brees going 35-for-60 for 308 yards, but two interceptions (New Orleans also lost a fumble). I’m not the greatest at math, but that’s seven turnovers in two cold subfreezing games at Soldier Field – hence the reason the Bears put up 72 points despite just 615 yards of total offense. Meanwhile, the Bears have been a pretty decent home team this year, winning four of six games. One loss was to then-unbeaten Tennessee 21-14 as a three-point home ‘dog, and the other was a fluky 27-24 overtime loss to Tampa Bay in Week 3 when Chicago blew a 10 point lead with 6½ minutes to play. And while this might look like a favorable matchup for New Orleans offensively – the Bears’ defense ranks 28th in the league in pass defense, while Brees and the Saints are first in pass offense – it’s interesting to note that Brees’ TD-to-INT ratio is 19-4 in the Superdome, but 7-10 on the road. And to reiterate, none of those 10 INTs on the road came in this kind of frigid weather. When the Bears have the ball, look for them to do a lot of handing off to rookie RB Matt Forte (1,081 rushing yards), who should have success against the Saints’ defense that’s giving up 130.5 rushing yards per game on the road (4.2 per carry), not to mention 28.3 points per game on the road. And when Brees has the ball, you can expect a lot zone coverage from Chicago, who really have no reason to fear the run for two reasons: 1) the Saints’ ground game is weak outside the dome (85 rushing ypg on the road); and 2) teams haven’t run on the Bears at home this year (82.8 ypg, 3.2 yards per carry).
In the end, you’ve got two teams fighting for their playoff lives, but given the results the last two years when these teams have met at Soldier Field and given the Saints’ road woes all season long, it’s impossible to pass up Chicago at this cheap price … just as it was impossible to pass up the Panthers as a small home chalk against Tampa Bay on Monday night.
‘Da Bears are the play.
Wizards
Simply put, where’s the motivation? Where’s the motivation for the Boston Celtics to blowout Washington tonight? Yeah, the defending champs have won 12 straight games and 20 of their first 22 to start the season, and hell, they’re even 8-3 ATS in their last 11. However, in their last two road games, the C’s went to Charlotte and barely held off the putrid Bobcats 89-84 (as an 8½-point road favorite), and then at Indiana in their most recent game Sunday, they needed overtime to dispatch of the Pacers 122-117.
Now they travel down the eastern seaboard to D.C. to face the Wizards, who are coming off their biggest win of the season (a 107-94 rout of the Pistons as a five-point home favorite). In fact, Washington is 5-0 ATS in its last five games, all as an underdog (3-0 ATS at home), including a 20-point rout of New Jersey, a six-point loss to the Blazers (as a 6 ½-point home underdog), a two-point home loss to the mighty Lakers (as a 12-point pup) and a seven-point loss at Chicago (as a seven-point underdog). In fact, the Wizards haven’t lost a game by double digits in six straight outings going back to before Thanksgiving!