Service Plays Thursday 12/11/08

bklynken · Dec 11, 2008

Computer Crushers Guaranteed Selections
Date: Thursday, December 11, 2008
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7000* COLLEGE HOOPS CRUSHER WINNER
508 Villanova -9.5 8:00 EST

The Consensus Group Guaranteed Selections
Date: Thursday, December 11, 2008
$25.00 Guaranteed: Tonight we are featuring another 6000* COLLEGE HOOPS LATE STEAM WINNER! ALL FIVE of our basketball handicappers are on this game and ALL FIVE of them are making this game a BEST BET!! The Computer Simulator gives our team an 87% chance of covering the spread for us. Get this GUARANTEED WINNER NOW for just $25 and you are GUARANTEED TO WIN or you will not be charged!! 14-5 COLLEGE HOOPS RUN! 12/11/2008

6000* COLLEGE HOOPS LATE STEAM WINNER
512 Kansas St -4.5 8:00 EST

ill get nba/nfl/nhl if and when posted

Bankit · Dec 11, 2008

NSA
\
NFL New Orleans @ Chicago 8:30 PM EST 20* Chicago -3
NFL New Orleans @ Chicago 8:30 PM EST 10* OVER 44.5

SteveRogers · Dec 11, 2008

Power Sweep

New Orleans at CHICAGO - Thursday. The Bears have the situational advantage of being a cold weather team on a short week hosting a warm weather dome team. The Saints have the advantage of their #1 offense vs CHI’s #28 pass defense that has been under siege by injuries. Both teams remain in the hunt after both got much needed wins LW. Unlike previous Thursday Night games this will have a direct impact on the playoff chase.

SteveRogers · Dec 11, 2008

THE MAX
NFL

Sunday December 14h, 2008
@Bears (-3) over Saints
Selection and Analysis by Dave Fobare
Several weeks into the season I was forced (like a lot of handicappers) to acknowledge that Kyle Orton was establishing himself as a decent quarterback. Then Orton injured his ankle in a 27-23 win over Detroit and he hasn't been quite the same QB since. With the Bears' offense
averaging 6.0 yards per pass and giving up the same it would seem a good place to take a Saints team that is throwing for 8.0 yards per pass and giving up 6.8 and is installed as an underdog despite scoring better than 28 points per game and scoring under 20 just once this season. Let's delve a little deeper. In place of Kyle Orton backup Rex Grossman has eaten up 62 pass attempts and moved the team just 4.2 yards per
throw. That drop from Orton's 6.7 yards per attempt makes the Bears look worse than they really are. And behind rookie RB Matt Forte the Bears have a substantial edge in the running game, one that is worth about 3 points per game all by itself. Oddly enough my stats also record a
higher schedule strength for the Bears. The Saints are 7-6, yet they occupy the basement of the strong NFC South. And as usual the NFC North is several games below the 0.500 mark. But Chicago has faced some tough teams outside their division like Philadelphia and Tennessee,
while New Orleans has played 4 games against the weak AFC West. Add it all up and my stat model prefers the seemingly deficient Bears by about 5.5 points. The best general tech I have on this game is a negative
84-138 ATS system that isolates certain high scoring teams such as New Orleans likely to be public darlings. This system is 5-12 in 2008 including plays against both the Jets (lost 24-14 as -5) and Giants (lost 20-14 as -6) last weekend. With the Saints at 9-4 ATS and coming off 4
covers in a row it’s likely we'll be bucking the public here. And the Saints apply to a negative 77-135 ATS system that plays against winning teams with good spread records. This spot is already 5-10 on the season.
Here at the end of the writeup I'm supposed to have something pithy to say, but this week I just don't have it. The Saints just look like a typically overvalued high scoring team, and I'll take the still somewhat gimpy Kyle Orton and the Bears. Chicago by 10.

SteveRogers · Dec 11, 2008

<HR style="COLOR: #ffffff; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ffffff" SIZE=1> 
DCI

COLLEGE HOOPS

Sun Belt Conference
MIDDLE TENNESSEE 87, Troy 73
Non-Conference
Fairfield 69, FORDHAM 63
GREEN BAY 78, Idaho State 65
Kansas State 76, Southern Miss 68
MIAMI (OHIO) 71, Wisconsin-Milwaukee 56
NEW MEXICO STATE 82, Sacramento State 55
VILLANOVA 69, Saint Joseph's 59
WEBER STATE 66, Long Beach State 63

SteveRogers · Dec 11, 2008

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Tony Karpinski

Boston Celtics vs. Washington Wizards (NBA)
Dec 11, 2008 8:05 PM EST

Play: Boston Celtics

Washington is not the dynamite offensive team we've seen in recent years because of injuries to their main man Gilbert Arenas. Their struggling offense runs into the second best defensive team in the NBA here. Boston has won 12 in a row and allows 91 ppg and 41.5% shooting by opponents. KG ripped the 2nd stringers and said they have to do a better job when the starters are resting. The Celtics have had 3 full days to rest, so they will have plenty of defensive energy and intensity available to turn this game into a BLOWOUT!
CELTICS WIN 110-88

SteveRogers · Dec 11, 2008

The Vegas Steam Line

Take BOSTON/WASHINGTON UNDER the total of 197

SteveRogers · Dec 11, 2008

Sportsbettingstats

New Orleans Saint at Chicago Bears

The Saints come into this game after beating the Falcons last week 29-24 and the Bears beat the Jaguars 23-10. This is almost a must win game for both teams, as the loser may be out of the Wild Card race. The Bears are only 1 game back of the Vikings in the NFC North and still have a chance to win the division, while the only way the Saints can make the post-season is by snagging a Wild Card. The Saints are led by MVP candidate QB Drew Brees (4100 yds 26 TD 14 INT) and his main targets are Lance Moore (62 rec 744 yds 8 TD) and Devery Henderson (28 rec 668 yds 3 TD). The Saints rushing attack is led by Pierre Thomas (461 yds 7 TD), as Reggie Bush and Deuce McAllister have missed a lot of time due to injuries this season. The Bears are led by QB Kyle Orton (2414 yds 15 TD 8 INT) and his main targets are Devin Hester (39 rec 522 yds 3 TD) and Greg Olsen (37 rec 450 yds 3 TD). The Bears rushing attack is led by super rookie Matt Forte (1081 yds 6 TD).

Staff Pick: The weather may be a factor in this game, as the cold and windy conditions will be an advantage for the Bears since it will be more difficult to pick up yards through the air. The Saints are all offense and no defense, as they have the league's top ranked offense, but only rank 21st on defense. For the Saints to win this game they will have to stop Forte, who will get a lot of carries tonight. The Bears D is ranked 7th in the league, but they do not match up well with the Saints because they are good at stopping the run and bad at stopping the pass. If the weather is not bad and Brees is given time to throw, he will pick apart the weak Bears secondary. The Bears front line D will have to get to Brees and put pressure on him. If the Bears cannot stop Brees and the game becomes a shootout, they have no chance. Kyle Orton has been an efficient, yet not spectacular, QB for the Bears and if he has a solid game the Bears will be successful. The Saints will stack the front line to stop Forte, which will open up the field for the Bears. Look for the Bears to step up and play a good defensive game and for the weather to hamper Brees and the Saints passing attack. The Bears will win this game and stay in the race for both the NFC Wild card and NFC North Division title.

Bears 27 Saints 24

DaGreek23 · Dec 11, 2008

Brandon Lang
15 Dime New Orleans Saints
I guess Budin will be on the Saints too. :nohead:

bklynken · Dec 11, 2008

Steven Budin-CEO

THURSDAY'S PICK
25 DIME PLAY

CHICAGO

This price is a steady 3 both in Las Vegas and offshore.

If you have -3, I suggest you buy down the 1/2 point to make Chicago a 2 1/2 point favorite so you get the win should Chicago prevail by only a field goal.

If this line moves to Chicago -3 1/2, either shop around for 3 or buy down the 1/2 point to -3 so you get a push even if Chicago wins by a field goal.

Take it from a former bookmaker and the guy who fathered the offshore sportsbook industry that too many gamblers and handicappers needlessly buy half points on all types of numbers. But the ONLY number that matters from a bookmaker's perspective is 3 because of overtime and that's why its the only number they (bookmakers) charge the extra juice for. Once again, we're using the power of money - our bulging bankroll - against the bookmaker in this case.

Why not buy a little extra insurance at a few cents on the dollar to protect your investment? As CEO of a multi-million dollar company I can tell you it's the right move, just like I knew it was the right move when as a bookmaker I saw smart players doing the same thing when the opportunity presented itself.

chuba · Dec 11, 2008

Steve liebman
(6-8 30 package td)

fairfield -9
wisc gb -12
st joes +11.5

gl

i will have adam meyer when its released

ymmit2nd · Dec 11, 2008

Balfe

NFL Football
Bears -3 over Saints
Both teams are fighting for their playoff lives with the loser being out and the winner needing a ton of help to get in. The Saints have a high powered offense, but their defense stinks and their FG kicker is not used to kicking in the bitter cold. The Saints will be without their LT Brown which could really have Brees scrambling around all night. The Bears have such a good defense that 7pts turn into a lot of FG's and with a young kicker in these conditions it could really deflate the Saints if they go on a nice drive and come away with nothing. The Bears offense is improving and should have their way with this Saints defense. Look for the home team to come out on top with their support of their fans and mother natures cold. Take the Bears.

College Football
Check back at the start of the bowl season

NBA Basketball
Jazz -3 over Trailblazers

NCAA Basketball
Villanova -9.5 over St. Joes

ymmit2nd · Dec 11, 2008

SUNSHINE FORECAST

Thursday, December 11, 2008

New Orleans Saints (+3) at Chicago Bears

Power Rating Projection:

Chicago Bears 27 New Orleans Saints 26
Statistical Projections

New Orleans Saints 25

Rushing Yards: 72
Passing Yards: 309
Turnovers: 2 Chicago Bears 24

Rushing Yards: 113
Passing Yards: 210
Turnovers: 1

SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:

Chicago Bears 35 New Orleans Saints 34

ymmit2nd · Dec 11, 2008

RAS

#518 Weber St. +1 ... 1 Unit

ymmit2nd · Dec 11, 2008

Lvtr (las vegas tech report )

new orleans +3

new orleans/ chicago over 45

kansas state -5

SportsFunatic · Dec 11, 2008

ANDRE GOMES

1* Utah under 195

SteveRogers · Dec 11, 2008

Primetime Sports Advisors

25 units Chicago Bears -3

10 units Philadelphia Flyers -160

SteveRogers · Dec 11, 2008

Stret Rosenthal (premium)

NFL

NO Saints +3
__________________
As always, I am looking forward to seeing you at the window cashing your winners tonight.

SteveMcQueen · Dec 11, 2008

Las Vegas Sport Picks (they've been kinda hot lately on hockey and very good at football)

NHL:

1* Blue Jackets -120
1* Kings -1/2 even (bet the 2-way line)
1* Islanders/Penguins over 5.5 -130
1* Ducks/Sharks over 5.5 +110

NBA:

3* Jazz -2

NCAAB:

2* Villanova -10
2* Kansas St. -5
2* St. Joe's/Nova over 129
3* Long Beach St./Weber St. over 138

NFL:

2* Bears -3
2* Saints/Bears over 45

BigCoorsLight · Dec 11, 2008

Dr. Bob

CHICAGO (-3.0) 25 New Orleans 24
05:15 PM Pacific Time Thursday, Dec-11 - Stats Matchup
New Orleans is a better team than the Chicago but the situation favors the Bears in this game. The Saints average a league best 6.4 yards per play (against teams that would allow 5.3 yppl to an average team) and Drew Brees should have another good game against a Bears’ defense that is very good defending the run (3.6 ypr allowed) but only average against the pass (excluding game 1 against Peyton Manning, who was rusty after missing all of training camp, and game 2 against Carolina without star WR Steve Smith). I rate the Bears’ defense at just 0.2 yppl better than average overall and they are at a huge disadvantage against the Saints. The Bears are 0.2 yppl worse than average offensively with Kyle Orton in the game and the Saints are only 0.1 yppl worse than average defensively after adjusting for strength of opposing offenses faced. The Saints are not only better from the line of scrimmage (I project 6.3 yppl for New Orleans and just 5.3 yppl for the Bears in this game), but they are also better in special teams. Chicago does have a 1.7 points edge I projected turnovers but my math favors the Saints by 3 ½ points. Unfortunately, New Orleans applies to a negative 39-98-3 ATS road letdown situation while the Bears apply to a 79-33-2 ATS statistical indicator. I’ll choose the math over the angles and lean slightly with New Orleans plus the points.