Burns
Game: Boston Celtics at Washington Wizards Dec 10 2009 8:05PM
Prediction: Washington Wizards
Reason: I'm taking the points with WASHINGTON. With the Celtics on an eight game winning streak and with the Wizards having lost two in a row, many will hesitate to back the home underdog here. That sentiment has provided us with plenty of line value. A closer look at Boston's eight game winning streak shows that only three of the victories came by more than nine points. They won the other five games by an average of less than six points. Looking back a little further and we find them at just 7-11 ATS, dating back to the beginning of November. While the Wizards are off back to back losses, both those defeats came by four points or less. In fact, each of their last four games has been decided by four points or less - they went 2-2 in those games. Looking back further and we find that the Wizards have won four of their last seven games. Of those seven games, only one resulted in a loss of greater than four points. That lone lopsided loss (11/28 at Charlotte) came when the Wizards were playing the second of back to back games. Tonight, however, the Wizards are very well rested - they haven't played since 12/6. I believe that the fact that the Wizards haven't played since 12/6 is significant. Note that the last time that they played, after having the previous three days off, came vs. Cleveland on 11/18. Listed as +3.5 underdogs, they Wizards won outright. In fact, they crushed the Cavs by a score 108-91. Coincidentally, the Wizards were coming off a 3-point lss vs. Detroit, prior to their break. This time, they're coming off a 4-point loss, vs. those same Pistons. While the Wizards are well-rested, the same cannot be said for the Celts. Yes, they did have last night off. However, they're also in the midst of playing seven of their last eight games on the road. While he's not one of the "Big 3,' note that the Celts will be without guard Marquis Daniels. The Wizards do allow just slightly over 100 points per game. However, with Arenas, Jamsion and Butler all averaging more than 16.5 points per game, (Arenas and Jamison average more than 20) they can also trade points with the best of them. Additionally, the Celtics are just 3-8 ATS their last 11 against teams which allow 99 or more points. They're also only 3-6 ATS vs. sub-500 teams. I expect another one which comes down to the wire. *9 Best Best