sportsbookbreakers
4-STAR Miami and San Antonio Over - Miami has been employing quite a simple strategy to stop teams recently - just outscore them. It's worked quite successfully the past two games and with a huge rest advantage we see that as a strategy which makes sense again here.
It is a bit of an unusual rest advantage as they haven't played sense Saturday night while San Antonio played last night in Orlando. In this situation the rested team has pushed the tempo with success.0 Teams with 4-8 days rest facing an unrested team are 107-74-6 OU.
It's not just that Orlando played last night but also that this is their fourth game in the past five nights. The Spurs are 6-0 OU (9.8 ppg) since March 27, 2008 when playing their fourth game in five nights.
Both of these are obviously elite teams. It's particularly the case for Miami at 11-2 overall. When San Antonio plays teams playing at this level they try to score with them. The Spurs are 6-0 OU (9.5 ppg) since November 2010 when playing a team which has won at least 78% of their games on the season. When extending back to November 2007, they are 16-3 OU in this situation.
Miami has won four straight games including wins over Milwaukee and Cleveland in their past two. That is despite allowing 106 and 108 points in those two games. The Heat are 13-0 OU (13.7 ppg) since February 2009 at home if not a dog of more than a point when they allowed one-hundred-plus points for two straight games.
In the win over Cleveland Saturday it was Lebron who picked them up against his old team with a game-high 30 points. The Heat are 6-0 OU (18.5 ppg) since May 24, 2012 after a win at home in which Lebron James scored at least 27 points.
SPORTSBOOK BREAKERS PREDICTION: MIAMI 111, San Antonio 107