Andre Gomes
Premium Pick:
New York Jets @ 308 New England Patriots
The Jets are in a good moment right now, with 3-0 on their last 3 games and the impression that I have is that the team is improving and becoming better game after game and that's especially important to understand that this team is better than the one who faced the Patriots on week 2. When that happens and the team has revenge, then the spot becomes very strong and the Jets are today in a very favorable position, especially when they dogs in this game, as it only gives them more value. I remember one trend that I've found: teams, who are revenging a home loss against an opponent, are 22-4 on the last 10 seasons in games involving two good teams (60% to 75%) in the second half of the season.
I've also have to refer that these two teams had a short week for this game and they will come to it in different conditions. While the Jets have easily defeated the Rams by 47-3 and so, they could save some energies for this game, the Patriots had a divisional game against the Bills, which was surely much harder and more tiring than the game of the Jets. Adalius Thomas is the new player on the injury list of the Pats and he will be missed much more than most people may think he will. Thomas was able to rush and drop back into coverage, and his size meant the Pats were covered against the run in the nickel. It will be impossible for one player to replace him. I remember he was the team's leader in terms of sacks with 5 until now. Matt Cassel has been better and he has improved a lot, however if we noticed the last game of the Patriots against the Bills, he had 9 rush plays for 34 pass attempts. This shows that sometimes he hasn't been able to find any offensive solutions and that he is obligated to run with the football. This will be a concern for this game, as the Jets are second in the NFL in sacks (31) and first in forced fumbles (13). If the Pats allowed 3 sacks against the Rams, no sacks against the Colts and 1 sack last week against the Bulls, today's challenge will be much harder to pass.
The offense of the Jets is well balanced. Thomas Jones leads the AFC in rushing yards (750), with the Jets being the 9th best rushing team on the league, with 123.4 yards/game. Without Adalius Thomas, the Patriots will struggle a lot on this matchup. The X factor of this game will be between the run defense of the Jets and the RB's of the Pats. The Pats have been using their rushing game in order to win their last game, in fact they have outplayed their opponents on the floor on the last 6 games they've played: +67, +8, +151, +8, +93 and +84 rushing yards than their opponents. But today they will face a top rush defense team. The Jets are the 5th best team on the league in rush defense, with 76.4 rushing yards allowed per game and all the edge the Pats had on their last game is gone on this week's game.
The Jets lost at home against the Pats by 10-19 earlier this season. Even though the Patriots outgained the Jets by just four yards, they took advantage of a Favre interception and a missed field goal by Jay Feely to beat the Jets for the 13th time in the last 16 meetings. This quote from a Jets played defines what this game is all about:
"After that game, it was disappointing, but we knew we had to keep moving on," New York defensive end Shaun Ellis said. "One thing I remember people saying in that locker room after the game was, 'We'll have another shot.' Here's our opportunity, so we have to go out and get a win in their home stadium."
Take the NY Jets in here.
Pick: 3 units (Regular Play) on 307 New York Jets (+3)
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