Tommy Rider
Houston / UAB Over 66.5
Just too much offense and two terrible defenses in this game. The Cougars are 110th nationally at stopping the run and have been awful all season in regards to third down defense. UAB can score points and they have dangerous dual threat QB in Joe Webb who will give the generous Houston defense fits tonight. UAB's defense is one of the nation's worst and that's not good news for them tonight facing a Cougars offense led by QB Case Keenum that is second in the nation in passing yards (400.4) and putting up 37 points per game. They should easily surpass that total tonight. My numbers have this game coming in at 78 points, so expect a lot of yards and a lot of points in this matchup tonight. *1 UNIT PLAY*
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Houston / UAB Over 66.5
Just too much offense and two terrible defenses in this game. The Cougars are 110th nationally at stopping the run and have been awful all season in regards to third down defense. UAB can score points and they have dangerous dual threat QB in Joe Webb who will give the generous Houston defense fits tonight. UAB's defense is one of the nation's worst and that's not good news for them tonight facing a Cougars offense led by QB Case Keenum that is second in the nation in passing yards (400.4) and putting up 37 points per game. They should easily surpass that total tonight. My numbers have this game coming in at 78 points, so expect a lot of yards and a lot of points in this matchup tonight. *1 UNIT PLAY*
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Marc Lawrence
Double-Dime Bet
Clemson +2.5 vs Wake Forest
Play On: Clemson
The Tigers take on the Deacon Demons in a key ACC clash Thursday night in Winston-Salem. With both teams entering off a loss, this game becomes pivitol to post-season positioning. More so for Clemson, who has suffered a pair of upset losses this year. With that we note Tiger head coach Tommy Bowden is 19-11 ATS as a conference dog in his head coaching career, including 9-0 in his last nine tries. Better yet, when Bowden is a dog of 5 or less points in a conference game he is 13-2 ATS, including 5-0 SU and ATS when playing off a loss. With Wake Forest 1-12 ATS as a favorite in the 2nd of back-to-back home games, look for Bowden to improve on his numbers here this evening. Grab the points with the Tigers.
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Double-Dime Bet
Clemson +2.5 vs Wake Forest
Play On: Clemson
The Tigers take on the Deacon Demons in a key ACC clash Thursday night in Winston-Salem. With both teams entering off a loss, this game becomes pivitol to post-season positioning. More so for Clemson, who has suffered a pair of upset losses this year. With that we note Tiger head coach Tommy Bowden is 19-11 ATS as a conference dog in his head coaching career, including 9-0 in his last nine tries. Better yet, when Bowden is a dog of 5 or less points in a conference game he is 13-2 ATS, including 5-0 SU and ATS when playing off a loss. With Wake Forest 1-12 ATS as a favorite in the 2nd of back-to-back home games, look for Bowden to improve on his numbers here this evening. Grab the points with the Tigers.
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Tony George
PHI (-134) vs LAD
Like Philly at home is hitter friendly Citizens Bank Park. The KEY in this one relies on Philly's bullpen which has an ERA of 3.55 versus the Dodgers whose is over 6. Do not discount all world closer Brad Lidge and the bullpen which was an AMAZING 79-0 after leading this season in the 8th inning! Unreal! Both teams swept at home this year 4-0 each. The team to take 1 on the road probably wins this series, but I do not see LA taking Game 1 in Philly, especially if tight with the bullpen and closer that Philly has at home.
Play 1 Unit on the Philly.
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PHI (-134) vs LAD
Like Philly at home is hitter friendly Citizens Bank Park. The KEY in this one relies on Philly's bullpen which has an ERA of 3.55 versus the Dodgers whose is over 6. Do not discount all world closer Brad Lidge and the bullpen which was an AMAZING 79-0 after leading this season in the 8th inning! Unreal! Both teams swept at home this year 4-0 each. The team to take 1 on the road probably wins this series, but I do not see LA taking Game 1 in Philly, especially if tight with the bullpen and closer that Philly has at home.
Play 1 Unit on the Philly.
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Sportsbettingstats
L.A. Dodgers at Philadelphia Phillies
The Dodgers come into game 1 of the National League Championship Series after sweeping the Cubs in the first round, while the Phillies dispatched the Brewers in 4 games in the first round. Taking the mound tonight for the Phillies is Cole Hammels (14-10 3.09 ERA), who in his last outing went 8 innings and gave up 0 earned runs and only 2 hits in winning game 1 of the Phillies first round series against the Brewers. Taking the mound for the Dodgers in game 1 is Derek Lowe (14-11 3.24 ERA), who in his last outing went 6 innings and gave up only 2 earned runs in winning game 1 of the Dodgers first round series against the Cubs. In their series win over the Cubs the Dodger scored a total of 20 runs in 3 games, while the Phillies scored 15 runs in 4 games in their series against the Brew Crew.
Staff Pick: The Dodgers come into this series full of confidence after sweeping the Cubs, who had the best record in the NL in the regular season. Both pitchers looked good in their last starts, but Hammels was dominant, 2 hitting the Brewers en route to a win. The Phillies played the Dodgers tough this season and torched their pitching for 43 runs in only 8 games. This game will depend on which Phillies offense shows up. The dominant one that includes Chase Utley, Ryan Howard, and Pat Burrell, or the one that was only 5-31 with runners in scoring position in the Milwaukee series. The Dodgers are a different team now that Manny is there and Rafael Furcal came back from an injury. Lowe is an unflappable pitcher, who is no stranger to big games, so he may have the slight edge in tonight's game. The Dodgers scored 5 more runs that the Phillies in their respective series' and the Dodgers played in 1 less game. The Dodgers offense is playing great and they are getting great pitching. Even though the Phillies won the season series they are playing a different Dodgers team. Even with all these things look for Hammels to have a great game in the City of Brotherly Love and for the Phillies to take game 1 of this series in a close game.
Phillies 5 Dodgers 4
Clemson Tigers at Wake Forrest Demon Deacons -2.5
Last week both teams had the week off top prepare for this big ACC game. There is a lot at stake in this game, as both want to win the ACC and the Demon Deacons still have National Title hopes, but that may be a long shot. The Tigers lost their first game of the season to Alabama and then got back on track winning 3 in a row before losing 2 weeks ago to Maryland. The Demon Deacons were rolling at 3-0 before losing a shocker to Navy 2 weeks back. The Demon Deacons are led by QB Riley Skinner (974 yds 6 TD 4 INT) and his main targets are WR D.J. Boldin (28 rec 276 yds) and TE Ben Wooster (15 rec 156 yds 1 TD). Wake's rushing attack, if you can all it that, is led by RB Josh Adams (151 yds 2 TD). The Tigers are led by QB Cullen Harper (944 yds 3 TD 5 INT) and his main targets are WR's Jacoby Ford (21 rec 261 yds 1 TD) and Aaron Kelly (25 rec 253 yds). The Tigers rushing attack is led by the RB duo of James Davis (375 yds 5 TD) and C.J. Spiller (304 yds 5 TD).
Staff Pick: The Demon Deacons have an early lead in the ACC race, as they are the only team that does not have a conference loss. Skinner has to play better than he did in the Deacons loss to Navy, as he was responsible for 5 of the 6 turnovers that Wake had in the game. The Demon Deacons defense is ranked 26th in the country and they will have to stop the strong running game of Clemson. Conversely, the Tigers have the 36th ranked defense and they have to contain the passing attack of the Deacons, which is their strength. Clemson also has to avoid mistakes, as in their last loss to Maryland they had 3 turnovers and had a holding penalty negate a 59 TD run in the second half. The keys to this game are each team's defense and if they can play well against the other team's strength, which is Clemson's running game and Wake's passing game. One factor that may help the Tigers is the fact that there is a good chance of rain for this game, which will benefit the team that can rush the ball. Wake's rushing game is just plain weak, as the rank 115th in the nation and their leading RB is averaging only 2.7 yards per carry. Interesting fact in that in 4 Thursday night games this year unranked opponents have beat ranked opponents in Vanderbilt beating #24 South Carolina 24-17, Colorado beating #21 West Virginia 17-14 two weeks later, Oregon State stunning #1 USC 27-21, and Pittsburgh beating #10 South Florida 26-21 last week. Look for a low scoring game and for Clemson to play good D, as the Thursday upset streak will continue as the Tigers will beat the Demon Deacons and take over a share of 1st place in the ACC.
Tigers 24 Demon Deacons 21
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L.A. Dodgers at Philadelphia Phillies
The Dodgers come into game 1 of the National League Championship Series after sweeping the Cubs in the first round, while the Phillies dispatched the Brewers in 4 games in the first round. Taking the mound tonight for the Phillies is Cole Hammels (14-10 3.09 ERA), who in his last outing went 8 innings and gave up 0 earned runs and only 2 hits in winning game 1 of the Phillies first round series against the Brewers. Taking the mound for the Dodgers in game 1 is Derek Lowe (14-11 3.24 ERA), who in his last outing went 6 innings and gave up only 2 earned runs in winning game 1 of the Dodgers first round series against the Cubs. In their series win over the Cubs the Dodger scored a total of 20 runs in 3 games, while the Phillies scored 15 runs in 4 games in their series against the Brew Crew.
Staff Pick: The Dodgers come into this series full of confidence after sweeping the Cubs, who had the best record in the NL in the regular season. Both pitchers looked good in their last starts, but Hammels was dominant, 2 hitting the Brewers en route to a win. The Phillies played the Dodgers tough this season and torched their pitching for 43 runs in only 8 games. This game will depend on which Phillies offense shows up. The dominant one that includes Chase Utley, Ryan Howard, and Pat Burrell, or the one that was only 5-31 with runners in scoring position in the Milwaukee series. The Dodgers are a different team now that Manny is there and Rafael Furcal came back from an injury. Lowe is an unflappable pitcher, who is no stranger to big games, so he may have the slight edge in tonight's game. The Dodgers scored 5 more runs that the Phillies in their respective series' and the Dodgers played in 1 less game. The Dodgers offense is playing great and they are getting great pitching. Even though the Phillies won the season series they are playing a different Dodgers team. Even with all these things look for Hammels to have a great game in the City of Brotherly Love and for the Phillies to take game 1 of this series in a close game.
Phillies 5 Dodgers 4
Clemson Tigers at Wake Forrest Demon Deacons -2.5
Last week both teams had the week off top prepare for this big ACC game. There is a lot at stake in this game, as both want to win the ACC and the Demon Deacons still have National Title hopes, but that may be a long shot. The Tigers lost their first game of the season to Alabama and then got back on track winning 3 in a row before losing 2 weeks ago to Maryland. The Demon Deacons were rolling at 3-0 before losing a shocker to Navy 2 weeks back. The Demon Deacons are led by QB Riley Skinner (974 yds 6 TD 4 INT) and his main targets are WR D.J. Boldin (28 rec 276 yds) and TE Ben Wooster (15 rec 156 yds 1 TD). Wake's rushing attack, if you can all it that, is led by RB Josh Adams (151 yds 2 TD). The Tigers are led by QB Cullen Harper (944 yds 3 TD 5 INT) and his main targets are WR's Jacoby Ford (21 rec 261 yds 1 TD) and Aaron Kelly (25 rec 253 yds). The Tigers rushing attack is led by the RB duo of James Davis (375 yds 5 TD) and C.J. Spiller (304 yds 5 TD).
Staff Pick: The Demon Deacons have an early lead in the ACC race, as they are the only team that does not have a conference loss. Skinner has to play better than he did in the Deacons loss to Navy, as he was responsible for 5 of the 6 turnovers that Wake had in the game. The Demon Deacons defense is ranked 26th in the country and they will have to stop the strong running game of Clemson. Conversely, the Tigers have the 36th ranked defense and they have to contain the passing attack of the Deacons, which is their strength. Clemson also has to avoid mistakes, as in their last loss to Maryland they had 3 turnovers and had a holding penalty negate a 59 TD run in the second half. The keys to this game are each team's defense and if they can play well against the other team's strength, which is Clemson's running game and Wake's passing game. One factor that may help the Tigers is the fact that there is a good chance of rain for this game, which will benefit the team that can rush the ball. Wake's rushing game is just plain weak, as the rank 115th in the nation and their leading RB is averaging only 2.7 yards per carry. Interesting fact in that in 4 Thursday night games this year unranked opponents have beat ranked opponents in Vanderbilt beating #24 South Carolina 24-17, Colorado beating #21 West Virginia 17-14 two weeks later, Oregon State stunning #1 USC 27-21, and Pittsburgh beating #10 South Florida 26-21 last week. Look for a low scoring game and for Clemson to play good D, as the Thursday upset streak will continue as the Tigers will beat the Demon Deacons and take over a share of 1st place in the ACC.
Tigers 24 Demon Deacons 21
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ROCKBOXSPORTS
NLCS: SERIES PRICE: DODGERS -115/PHILLIES -105
We were all over the Dodgers in round one against a Cubs team that was the darling of the media and the betting public but just didn't match up well against Joe Torre's crew. Rock Box Sports cashed a 2 STAR series bet play on LA and also had the Dodgers in games 1 and 2. First instinct was to like Dodgers once again in round two. However, we find ourselves suddenly cramped for room on the Dodger bandwagon as the aforementioned media and public are all piling on board. All those pundits who didn't have the guts to pick LA over the Cubs are now taking them over the Phils with a zeal that we find downright alarming. Meanwhile, the betting public has come on so strong that they've flipped the series price from its original Phils -125/Dodgers +105 to its current Dodgers -115/Phils -105. All of this sudden Dodger hype had us flipping back through our scouting reports and giving the Phillies a second look. One thing we noticed in doing so is that both of these teams, Phils and Dodgers alike, are prone to being offensively neutralized by quality left-handed pitching. Howard and Utley murder righties but are rather pedestrian against southpaws. Meanwhile, some of the key Dodger bats that have been backing up Manny are known to struggle against lefties themselves. This wasn't a factor for LA against a Cubs team that ran three righties out there before lefty #4 starter Ted Lilly ever saw the mound. However, the Phillies have a lefty ace in Cole Hamels, one who is easily capable of beating the Dodgers twice in this series. And while it is very easy to dismiss a guy like Jamie Moyer - the Dodgers are precisely the type of team that he may have a chance to frustrate, particularly in a pitcher's park such as Dodger stadium. In contrast to the Phils, the Dodgers have only one lefty starter, and he is not their ace but rather their fourth starter Kershaw, assumimg Torre goes with him over Maddux. Thus, the strength of the Dodger rotation - rightes Lowe and Billingsley - will be going up against the strength of a Phillies lineup that mashes righties. Meanwhile, the strength of the Phillies rotation - Hamels - will match up against Dodger vulnerability. If there is one built-in advantage that the Phillies have, this may be it. Actually, now that we take a closer look, Phillies have the better lineup from top to bottom, the better defense, and better bullpen (Lidge lights out for Philly/ Saito may be just plain out altogether for LA). Dodgers have better depth of starting pitching and the far better mananger in Torre. But the Phillies have the lefties. Ultimately, this series breaks down as a tight one, a bit of a toss-up. As stated, we originally liked the Dodgers, but after getting great value (+180) in the Cubs series we are finding none this time around. If anything the value lies with Philly, particularly if the line continues to move. We'll predict PHILLIES IN SEVEN but are uncertain enough to lay off series bet and take this one game at a time- starting off with Hamels and the under in game 1…
SERIES BET: NONE
GAME ONE: 2 STARS: PHILLIES -130; UNDER 7.5
ALCS: SERIES PRICE: RED SOX -125/RAYS +105
As with the Dodgers, we were very strong on the Red Sox in the DS round, cashing our second 2 STAR series bet on Boston. Much like the Dodgers-Cubs series, all the pundits and the majority of the betting public were high on the Angels. However, we are glad to see that these same pundits and public bettors are not flocking to the Red Sox in the CS round as decisively as they are to the Dodgers. The attitude towards Sox-Rays appears much more divided, with plenty jumping on the Tampa wagon. At the Rock Box we've never had a doubt that the Rays are the real deal and did not expect a sudden collapse as so many seemed to in the regular season. However, we do believe the Red sox are the better team here. Then again, this is neutralized somewhat by the considerable homefield advantage of the Rays, with 4 of the 7 being played at Tropicana Field. Red Sox will have to steal one in Tampa, no easy task to be sure. But this is where we have to talk about Jon Lester. Lester was the reason the Sox came out on top against Anaheim and he's the reason we like them here. Quite simply, Jon Lester is the single most dominant pitcher in the American League and probably all of baseball that is still pitching at this moment. Much has been made of the fact that Beckett is no longer Beckett for Boston, but that's okay, because Lester is filling that role quite nicely. Let Lester be Beckett and then Beckett can be something else, a #2 or #3 guy who you don't neccessarily rely on but who's capable of a great performance if it all suddenly clicks. Anyway, back to Lester. The brilliance of the Red Sox starting Lester in game three is that they will then have him available in game seven in Tampa. If the Sox don't manage to win one on the road before then, they'll win behind Lester in the last one. Let it further be said that we are not sold on the Tampa Bay offense. Of course they have great speed, but they lack the offensive balance and power that a team like Boston presents. We'll also give the Sox a slight edge in starting pitching strictly due to the fact that have Lester and Tampa does not. Maybe a slight edge to the Sox bullpen as well. These bullpens are in many ways reverse images of one another- Red Sox with a great closer but uncertainty in the middle innings/ Rays with great middle relief but uncertainty at closer. We'll go with the great closer Papelbon and hope that Masterson, Okajima, and Delcarmen can step up against a Rays offense that doesn't quite scare us. Red Sox could struggle early in this series in Tampa. Edge goes to the Rays in game one with Shields against Matsuzaka. Shields has been a true ace at home this year, much less effective on the road. He can beat Dice-k in game one, particularly if Dice insists walking people as he usually does and putting the speedy Rays on base. Shields will have a much harder time pitching in Fenway if he is called upon to do so as expected in game 5. Even if Boston comes home down 2-0 in this series we still like their chances. Jonny Lester is making postseason magic right now and we're more than happy to be on his side. RED SOX IN SEVEN. Series and game 1 bets listed below.
SERIES BET: 2 STARS: RED SOX -125
GAME ONE: 2 STARS: TAMPA BAY -110
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NLCS: SERIES PRICE: DODGERS -115/PHILLIES -105
We were all over the Dodgers in round one against a Cubs team that was the darling of the media and the betting public but just didn't match up well against Joe Torre's crew. Rock Box Sports cashed a 2 STAR series bet play on LA and also had the Dodgers in games 1 and 2. First instinct was to like Dodgers once again in round two. However, we find ourselves suddenly cramped for room on the Dodger bandwagon as the aforementioned media and public are all piling on board. All those pundits who didn't have the guts to pick LA over the Cubs are now taking them over the Phils with a zeal that we find downright alarming. Meanwhile, the betting public has come on so strong that they've flipped the series price from its original Phils -125/Dodgers +105 to its current Dodgers -115/Phils -105. All of this sudden Dodger hype had us flipping back through our scouting reports and giving the Phillies a second look. One thing we noticed in doing so is that both of these teams, Phils and Dodgers alike, are prone to being offensively neutralized by quality left-handed pitching. Howard and Utley murder righties but are rather pedestrian against southpaws. Meanwhile, some of the key Dodger bats that have been backing up Manny are known to struggle against lefties themselves. This wasn't a factor for LA against a Cubs team that ran three righties out there before lefty #4 starter Ted Lilly ever saw the mound. However, the Phillies have a lefty ace in Cole Hamels, one who is easily capable of beating the Dodgers twice in this series. And while it is very easy to dismiss a guy like Jamie Moyer - the Dodgers are precisely the type of team that he may have a chance to frustrate, particularly in a pitcher's park such as Dodger stadium. In contrast to the Phils, the Dodgers have only one lefty starter, and he is not their ace but rather their fourth starter Kershaw, assumimg Torre goes with him over Maddux. Thus, the strength of the Dodger rotation - rightes Lowe and Billingsley - will be going up against the strength of a Phillies lineup that mashes righties. Meanwhile, the strength of the Phillies rotation - Hamels - will match up against Dodger vulnerability. If there is one built-in advantage that the Phillies have, this may be it. Actually, now that we take a closer look, Phillies have the better lineup from top to bottom, the better defense, and better bullpen (Lidge lights out for Philly/ Saito may be just plain out altogether for LA). Dodgers have better depth of starting pitching and the far better mananger in Torre. But the Phillies have the lefties. Ultimately, this series breaks down as a tight one, a bit of a toss-up. As stated, we originally liked the Dodgers, but after getting great value (+180) in the Cubs series we are finding none this time around. If anything the value lies with Philly, particularly if the line continues to move. We'll predict PHILLIES IN SEVEN but are uncertain enough to lay off series bet and take this one game at a time- starting off with Hamels and the under in game 1…
SERIES BET: NONE
GAME ONE: 2 STARS: PHILLIES -130; UNDER 7.5
ALCS: SERIES PRICE: RED SOX -125/RAYS +105
As with the Dodgers, we were very strong on the Red Sox in the DS round, cashing our second 2 STAR series bet on Boston. Much like the Dodgers-Cubs series, all the pundits and the majority of the betting public were high on the Angels. However, we are glad to see that these same pundits and public bettors are not flocking to the Red Sox in the CS round as decisively as they are to the Dodgers. The attitude towards Sox-Rays appears much more divided, with plenty jumping on the Tampa wagon. At the Rock Box we've never had a doubt that the Rays are the real deal and did not expect a sudden collapse as so many seemed to in the regular season. However, we do believe the Red sox are the better team here. Then again, this is neutralized somewhat by the considerable homefield advantage of the Rays, with 4 of the 7 being played at Tropicana Field. Red Sox will have to steal one in Tampa, no easy task to be sure. But this is where we have to talk about Jon Lester. Lester was the reason the Sox came out on top against Anaheim and he's the reason we like them here. Quite simply, Jon Lester is the single most dominant pitcher in the American League and probably all of baseball that is still pitching at this moment. Much has been made of the fact that Beckett is no longer Beckett for Boston, but that's okay, because Lester is filling that role quite nicely. Let Lester be Beckett and then Beckett can be something else, a #2 or #3 guy who you don't neccessarily rely on but who's capable of a great performance if it all suddenly clicks. Anyway, back to Lester. The brilliance of the Red Sox starting Lester in game three is that they will then have him available in game seven in Tampa. If the Sox don't manage to win one on the road before then, they'll win behind Lester in the last one. Let it further be said that we are not sold on the Tampa Bay offense. Of course they have great speed, but they lack the offensive balance and power that a team like Boston presents. We'll also give the Sox a slight edge in starting pitching strictly due to the fact that have Lester and Tampa does not. Maybe a slight edge to the Sox bullpen as well. These bullpens are in many ways reverse images of one another- Red Sox with a great closer but uncertainty in the middle innings/ Rays with great middle relief but uncertainty at closer. We'll go with the great closer Papelbon and hope that Masterson, Okajima, and Delcarmen can step up against a Rays offense that doesn't quite scare us. Red Sox could struggle early in this series in Tampa. Edge goes to the Rays in game one with Shields against Matsuzaka. Shields has been a true ace at home this year, much less effective on the road. He can beat Dice-k in game one, particularly if Dice insists walking people as he usually does and putting the speedy Rays on base. Shields will have a much harder time pitching in Fenway if he is called upon to do so as expected in game 5. Even if Boston comes home down 2-0 in this series we still like their chances. Jonny Lester is making postseason magic right now and we're more than happy to be on his side. RED SOX IN SEVEN. Series and game 1 bets listed below.
SERIES BET: 2 STARS: RED SOX -125
GAME ONE: 2 STARS: TAMPA BAY -110
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Cajun-Sports CFB Executive Report- Thursday
CFB: 14-3 L17
THURSDAY 10/09/2008
7:45 PM EDT
5 STAR SELECTION
Clemson +2½ over WAKE FOREST
The Tigers make a short trip on Thursday night for an ACC clash with the Demon Deacons. Both teams are coming off upset losses, and after a weekend off, will resume their quests for the Atlantic division championship.
Clemson was ranked ninth in the preseason Top 25, got blown out 34-10 in its season opener against then-#24 Alabama. After responding with three straight victories, the Tigers lost to conference rival Maryland 20-17 in their last outing.
Wake Forest suffered a 24-17 home loss to Navy in their most recent contest. The loss to an independent didn't affect its conference standings, though, and the Deacons remain the only ACC Atlantic team without a loss in conference play.
Since Clemson does have that league loss, this is as close to a “must-win” game as you can have in early October.
"I think they'll respond," coach Tommy Bowden said, referring to his players.
We think they will as well, as the offense rushed for 221 yards in the loss to Maryland. Customarily, Clemson has been on the winning side when it rushes for more than 200 in a game, and they should have a good night running the ball here as well.
The Tigers have simply been the best underdog in college football over the past several seasons, as they are 10-0 ATS (+10.8 ppg) since 2004 as a dog. Meanwhile, Wake Forest is 0-9-1 ATS as a favorite/pick ‘em vs. opponents off a SU loss since at least 1980.
With a team like Clemson, we look to play ON a good team in the “meat” of the season that needs a victory more than its opponent. A peak performance can be expected from a good team with realistic conference title and/or postseason expectations that is struggling and in danger of falling out of contention. When such a team is ready to play with some urgency, they will hold nothing back in their attempt to get back on track.
Clemson is also active as a “PLAY ON” team for an NCAA Football POWER SYSTEM that states:
Play ON a conference road underdog off a favorite SU loss of 3+ points in its last game and a non-lined game before that vs. an opponent not off a conference home underdog SU win.
Since 1993, these teams are 16-0 ATS, including Mississippi’s upset win at Florida as a 23 1/2-point dog.
On the other hand, Wake Forest is looking at some ugly numbers. They are 0-10 ATS (-9.3 ppg) as a home favorite of 2+ points off a home SU loss since at least 1980, as well as 0-13-2 ATS (-9.6 ppg) at home with 7+ days rest and not an underdog of 13+ points.
Despite having rest, non-Saturday home favorites have been very weak when coming off a loss as revealed by another POWER SYSTEM that advises:.
In Games 2-11, play AGAINST a non-Saturday home favorite with 11-15 days rest off a SU loss.
These teams are 0-14-1 ATS ALL-TIME, failing to cover the spread by more than 15 ppg!
We look for Clemson to win this game on the ground, as they run the ball, play field position, and a good defensive effort holds off the Demon Deacons.
GRADED PREDICTION: 5* CLEMSON TIGERS +2.5
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CFB: 14-3 L17
THURSDAY 10/09/2008
7:45 PM EDT
5 STAR SELECTION
Clemson +2½ over WAKE FOREST
The Tigers make a short trip on Thursday night for an ACC clash with the Demon Deacons. Both teams are coming off upset losses, and after a weekend off, will resume their quests for the Atlantic division championship.
Clemson was ranked ninth in the preseason Top 25, got blown out 34-10 in its season opener against then-#24 Alabama. After responding with three straight victories, the Tigers lost to conference rival Maryland 20-17 in their last outing.
Wake Forest suffered a 24-17 home loss to Navy in their most recent contest. The loss to an independent didn't affect its conference standings, though, and the Deacons remain the only ACC Atlantic team without a loss in conference play.
Since Clemson does have that league loss, this is as close to a “must-win” game as you can have in early October.
"I think they'll respond," coach Tommy Bowden said, referring to his players.
We think they will as well, as the offense rushed for 221 yards in the loss to Maryland. Customarily, Clemson has been on the winning side when it rushes for more than 200 in a game, and they should have a good night running the ball here as well.
The Tigers have simply been the best underdog in college football over the past several seasons, as they are 10-0 ATS (+10.8 ppg) since 2004 as a dog. Meanwhile, Wake Forest is 0-9-1 ATS as a favorite/pick ‘em vs. opponents off a SU loss since at least 1980.
With a team like Clemson, we look to play ON a good team in the “meat” of the season that needs a victory more than its opponent. A peak performance can be expected from a good team with realistic conference title and/or postseason expectations that is struggling and in danger of falling out of contention. When such a team is ready to play with some urgency, they will hold nothing back in their attempt to get back on track.
Clemson is also active as a “PLAY ON” team for an NCAA Football POWER SYSTEM that states:
Play ON a conference road underdog off a favorite SU loss of 3+ points in its last game and a non-lined game before that vs. an opponent not off a conference home underdog SU win.
Since 1993, these teams are 16-0 ATS, including Mississippi’s upset win at Florida as a 23 1/2-point dog.
On the other hand, Wake Forest is looking at some ugly numbers. They are 0-10 ATS (-9.3 ppg) as a home favorite of 2+ points off a home SU loss since at least 1980, as well as 0-13-2 ATS (-9.6 ppg) at home with 7+ days rest and not an underdog of 13+ points.
Despite having rest, non-Saturday home favorites have been very weak when coming off a loss as revealed by another POWER SYSTEM that advises:.
In Games 2-11, play AGAINST a non-Saturday home favorite with 11-15 days rest off a SU loss.
These teams are 0-14-1 ATS ALL-TIME, failing to cover the spread by more than 15 ppg!
We look for Clemson to win this game on the ground, as they run the ball, play field position, and a good defensive effort holds off the Demon Deacons.
GRADED PREDICTION: 5* CLEMSON TIGERS +2.5
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Both have been money lately. Thx!
Free picks:
Uab at HOUSTON (-18') By Michael Cannon, Featured Handicapper
Take the under tonight between Uab and Houston.<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com
fficeffice" /><o
></o>
<o> </o>
I know <?xml:namespace prefix = st1 ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-comffice:smarttags" /><st1:City><st1lace>Houston</st1lace></st1:City> has an explosive offense and can probably name the score tonight against Uab.<o></o>
<o> </o>
But this total is too high in my opinion and I think what you’ll see is the Cougars letting off the throttle in the second half once they build up a big lead.<o></o>
<o> </o>
That’s what happened last year when <st1:City><st1lace>Houston</st1lace></st1:City> throttled the Blazers, 49-10 on the road as a 13-point chalk.<o></o>
<o> </o>
Both teams have trended to the under overall, with <st1:City><st1lace>Houston</st1lace></st1:City> going 7-3 overall, 5-1 in conference play and 6-2 coming off a bye. The under is on runs of <st1:date Month="9" Day="4" Year="2001">9-4-1</st1:date> overall, 6-2 in road games and 7-3 after a bye for Uab.<o></o>
<o> </o>
The last two meetings between these two have also stayed under the posted total.<o></o>
<o> </o>
Play on the under tonight between Houston and Uab.
2♦ UNDER
UAB at HOUSTON (-18') By Bobby Maxwell, Featured Handicapper We're on a 72-63 run with our FREE selections and today we're coming on the college gridiron with Houston as the Cougars host UAB in a Conference USA matchup.
Houston is definitely the play in this one as the Cougars realized they are a pretty good team with a 41-24 upset of East Carolina two weeks ago as a 10 1/2-point road 'dog.
The Cougars got great play from QB Case Keenum who threw for 399 yards and three TDs and the running game produced another 222 yards as they dominated the yardage states, outgaining the Pirates 621-275.
Houston is 2-1 SU and ATS in the last three matchups with UAB and went to Birmingham last year and crushed the Blazers 49-10 as a 13-point favorite. The favorite has gotten the cash in the last four meetings in this rivalry.
The Blazers lost to Memphis last Thursday 33-30 as a three-point road 'dog. UAB is just 2-5-1 ATS in their last eight Conference USA matchups.
We think the Cougars have found the recipe for success as they let Keenum have free reign with the offense. Play Houston to win this one in a blowout.
2♦ HOUSTON
Uab (+18') at HOUSTON By Drew Gordon, Featured Handicapper While clearly we see the Cougars winning this contest, covering a bloated number is another story. Coming off a huge win a East Carolina, Houston comes into this contest a little overvalued, and the fact their 1-5 ATS as a home favorite since last season should give their backers A LOT to think about.
Also, while they're coming off a bye, I don't believe the focus will be there for Houston, facing a 1-5 Blazers team that most believe will be easy pickings tonight on the road. True, the Blazers are terrible on the highway, but they have several match up edges, and with a lack of focus on the Cougars side, the backdoor is wide open in this contest.
Speaking of match ups, I know everyone loves to talk about Case Keenum, who's 19 TDs and just 5 picks are impressive. And while he does have a strong advantage against a porous UAB secondary, you've also got to like Joseph Webb's edge against this Houston defense. Webb is the epitome of a "dual-threat" QB, passing for 1227 yards and 7 TDs (6 picks) while rushing for 516 yards and 5 TDs this season! Webb almost single-handedly beat Memphis last week at home, accounting for 328 total yards and 4 TDs, and he'll be just as capable against this Cougars stop-unit tonight.
Finally, I mentioned the Memphis game, which despite going down as a loss for the Blazers, was a big step forward for them. Their defense showed signs of improvement (38% coversion on 3rd down, two INTs) while their offense out-gained Memphis 456 to 436 yards. Let me stress, the Cougars will win this contest, but with Webb playing well, and a possible letdown here for Houston against a below average foe (after a bigtime win at East Carolina), look for the Blazers to grab the cash on the road in this Thursday nighter.
Small play on UAB plus the points over Houston in this college football match up.
1♦ UAB
Uab at HOUSTON (-18') By Michael Cannon, Featured Handicapper
Take the under tonight between Uab and Houston.<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com
fficeffice" /><o></o><o
> </o>I know <?xml:namespace prefix = st1 ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com
ffice:smarttags" /><st1:City><st1lace>Houston</st1lace></st1:City> has an explosive offense and can probably name the score tonight against Uab.<o></o><o
> </o>But this total is too high in my opinion and I think what you’ll see is the Cougars letting off the throttle in the second half once they build up a big lead.<o
></o><o
> </o>That’s what happened last year when <st1:City><st1
lace>Houston</st1lace></st1:City> throttled the Blazers, 49-10 on the road as a 13-point chalk.<o></o><o
> </o>Both teams have trended to the under overall, with <st1:City><st1
lace>Houston</st1lace></st1:City> going 7-3 overall, 5-1 in conference play and 6-2 coming off a bye. The under is on runs of <st1:date Month="9" Day="4" Year="2001">9-4-1</st1:date> overall, 6-2 in road games and 7-3 after a bye for Uab.<o></o><o
> </o>The last two meetings between these two have also stayed under the posted total.<o
></o><o
> </o>Play on the under tonight between Houston and Uab.
2♦ UNDER
UAB at HOUSTON (-18') By Bobby Maxwell, Featured Handicapper We're on a 72-63 run with our FREE selections and today we're coming on the college gridiron with Houston as the Cougars host UAB in a Conference USA matchup.
Houston is definitely the play in this one as the Cougars realized they are a pretty good team with a 41-24 upset of East Carolina two weeks ago as a 10 1/2-point road 'dog.
The Cougars got great play from QB Case Keenum who threw for 399 yards and three TDs and the running game produced another 222 yards as they dominated the yardage states, outgaining the Pirates 621-275.
Houston is 2-1 SU and ATS in the last three matchups with UAB and went to Birmingham last year and crushed the Blazers 49-10 as a 13-point favorite. The favorite has gotten the cash in the last four meetings in this rivalry.
The Blazers lost to Memphis last Thursday 33-30 as a three-point road 'dog. UAB is just 2-5-1 ATS in their last eight Conference USA matchups.
We think the Cougars have found the recipe for success as they let Keenum have free reign with the offense. Play Houston to win this one in a blowout.
2♦ HOUSTON
Uab (+18') at HOUSTON By Drew Gordon, Featured Handicapper While clearly we see the Cougars winning this contest, covering a bloated number is another story. Coming off a huge win a East Carolina, Houston comes into this contest a little overvalued, and the fact their 1-5 ATS as a home favorite since last season should give their backers A LOT to think about.
Also, while they're coming off a bye, I don't believe the focus will be there for Houston, facing a 1-5 Blazers team that most believe will be easy pickings tonight on the road. True, the Blazers are terrible on the highway, but they have several match up edges, and with a lack of focus on the Cougars side, the backdoor is wide open in this contest.
Speaking of match ups, I know everyone loves to talk about Case Keenum, who's 19 TDs and just 5 picks are impressive. And while he does have a strong advantage against a porous UAB secondary, you've also got to like Joseph Webb's edge against this Houston defense. Webb is the epitome of a "dual-threat" QB, passing for 1227 yards and 7 TDs (6 picks) while rushing for 516 yards and 5 TDs this season! Webb almost single-handedly beat Memphis last week at home, accounting for 328 total yards and 4 TDs, and he'll be just as capable against this Cougars stop-unit tonight.
Finally, I mentioned the Memphis game, which despite going down as a loss for the Blazers, was a big step forward for them. Their defense showed signs of improvement (38% coversion on 3rd down, two INTs) while their offense out-gained Memphis 456 to 436 yards. Let me stress, the Cougars will win this contest, but with Webb playing well, and a possible letdown here for Houston against a below average foe (after a bigtime win at East Carolina), look for the Blazers to grab the cash on the road in this Thursday nighter.
Small play on UAB plus the points over Houston in this college football match up.
1♦ UAB
