Tillman/Scherzer
It is so hard to predict these postseason matchups where almost everything is even. Detroit is a great road team, but Baltimore is a better home team and are great against right handed pitching this year. You also have to give the edge to the Baltimore Bullpen. I think we finally will start to see a lower scoring type game today. Let’s take the home team with the shutdown bullpen. Take the Orioles.
SPORTS INSURANCE ADJUSTERS
Thursday 10/2 Service Plays
What a way to start the MLB Playoffs! Now 2-0 +6 UNITS for the playoffs as the Giants won easily!!! Let's continue this run with the Tigers tonight on the road.
MLB
Detroit -110
NFL
Green Bay -2/ Over 41 6 point teaser
NCAA CF
Oregon -23.5
Thursday 10/2 Service Plays
What a way to start the MLB Playoffs! Now 2-0 +6 UNITS for the playoffs as the Giants won easily!!! Let's continue this run with the Tigers tonight on the road.
MLB
Detroit -110
NFL
Green Bay -2/ Over 41 6 point teaser
NCAA CF
Oregon -23.5
Sportswagers
Detroit @ BALTIMORE
Detroit (1st 5 inns) -114 over BALTIMORE
5:35 PM EST. In a full game, the Tigers are risky because their bullpen is by far the worst of all the teams in the post-season. Even a three-run lead in the ninth isn’t safe with this group of bullpen stiffs that make you sweat out just about every game. By contrast, if the Orioles get to the seventh inning with a lead it’s practically lights out for the opposition because they have the best 3-man close it out group in the league. The good news is that we have an option to eliminate the pens and that’s precisely what we’ll do here with Max Scherzer against Chris Tillman.
Tillman had a ho-hum first half (4.11 ERA, 1.39 WHIP) and shoddy skills to go along with it. He looked like a new pitcher in the second half with 7.8 K’s per nine, 1.2 BB/9 and a 45% groundball rate. However, Tillman’s average 8% swing and miss rate and 60% first pitch strike in the 2H does not support the elite level of command he posted. Tillman doesn’t throw enough strikes and in a pressure situation, his control might get a lot worse. Tillman walked 10 batters in his final 36 innings. His post-All-Star 22% hit rate and 82% strand rate are further warning signs that he’s walking a very thin line. Pay much more attention to Tillman’s overall 4.21 xERA and 1.35 WHIP than to his actual 3.34 ERA. We put Tillman in the same class as Edinson Volquez, that being a pitcher with misleading stats and a pitcher that is a huge risk.
While Scherzer had some rough outings in May and June, his year-long numbers look awfully familiar to his Cy Young numbers from last season. Despite the occasional clunker, Scherzer hasn’t slowed down at all since last year. His first half struggles were mostly due to an unlucky hit rate. His skills, however, are close to a mirror image of 2013. Scherzer's second half ERA is very good, but that’s also due to a swing on hit % and strand %. Again, very stable skills. The only place Scherzer has regressed slightly is in his performance against righties; while he was unworldly last year, he’s merely impressive this year. Scherzer struck out 252 batters in 220 innings. He has an elite swing and miss rate and let’s not forget that when he pitches, the Tigers usually win. Scherzer went 18-5 this year and 21-3 last year. Tillman has six losses this season and Scherzer has five. That’s similar but there is nothing similar at all regarding the skills of these two pitchers and it’s not in Tillman’s favor. Spotting under 20 cents with Scherzer against Tillman is a bet we would make 100% of the time and we certainly make no exceptions here.
NOTE: We’re passing on the Royals/Angels Game 1. As much as we dislike Jared Weaver’s skills, Jason Vargas is also a big risk that can’t be trusted. Weaver somehow wins games, especially at home but don’t be surprised if he gets whacked tonight.
Our Pick
Detroit (1st 5 inns) -114 (Risking 2.28 units - To Win: 2.00)
Detroit @ BALTIMORE
Detroit (1st 5 inns) -114 over BALTIMORE
5:35 PM EST. In a full game, the Tigers are risky because their bullpen is by far the worst of all the teams in the post-season. Even a three-run lead in the ninth isn’t safe with this group of bullpen stiffs that make you sweat out just about every game. By contrast, if the Orioles get to the seventh inning with a lead it’s practically lights out for the opposition because they have the best 3-man close it out group in the league. The good news is that we have an option to eliminate the pens and that’s precisely what we’ll do here with Max Scherzer against Chris Tillman.
Tillman had a ho-hum first half (4.11 ERA, 1.39 WHIP) and shoddy skills to go along with it. He looked like a new pitcher in the second half with 7.8 K’s per nine, 1.2 BB/9 and a 45% groundball rate. However, Tillman’s average 8% swing and miss rate and 60% first pitch strike in the 2H does not support the elite level of command he posted. Tillman doesn’t throw enough strikes and in a pressure situation, his control might get a lot worse. Tillman walked 10 batters in his final 36 innings. His post-All-Star 22% hit rate and 82% strand rate are further warning signs that he’s walking a very thin line. Pay much more attention to Tillman’s overall 4.21 xERA and 1.35 WHIP than to his actual 3.34 ERA. We put Tillman in the same class as Edinson Volquez, that being a pitcher with misleading stats and a pitcher that is a huge risk.
While Scherzer had some rough outings in May and June, his year-long numbers look awfully familiar to his Cy Young numbers from last season. Despite the occasional clunker, Scherzer hasn’t slowed down at all since last year. His first half struggles were mostly due to an unlucky hit rate. His skills, however, are close to a mirror image of 2013. Scherzer's second half ERA is very good, but that’s also due to a swing on hit % and strand %. Again, very stable skills. The only place Scherzer has regressed slightly is in his performance against righties; while he was unworldly last year, he’s merely impressive this year. Scherzer struck out 252 batters in 220 innings. He has an elite swing and miss rate and let’s not forget that when he pitches, the Tigers usually win. Scherzer went 18-5 this year and 21-3 last year. Tillman has six losses this season and Scherzer has five. That’s similar but there is nothing similar at all regarding the skills of these two pitchers and it’s not in Tillman’s favor. Spotting under 20 cents with Scherzer against Tillman is a bet we would make 100% of the time and we certainly make no exceptions here.
NOTE: We’re passing on the Royals/Angels Game 1. As much as we dislike Jared Weaver’s skills, Jason Vargas is also a big risk that can’t be trusted. Weaver somehow wins games, especially at home but don’t be surprised if he gets whacked tonight.
Our Pick
Detroit (1st 5 inns) -114 (Risking 2.28 units - To Win: 2.00)
