Jimmy Moore
4* Montreal ML -120
Big scheduling edge here for the Canadians since they get to take on the Bruins off of a game last night in Detroit that did not start until 8:00. Also the Bruins just have not been able to score much this season. Look for a spirited effort from Montreal here in a big rivalry game against a Boston team that they have beaten 10 of the last 15 times they have met. Thank you and good luck.
4* Montreal ML -120
Big scheduling edge here for the Canadians since they get to take on the Bruins off of a game last night in Detroit that did not start until 8:00. Also the Bruins just have not been able to score much this season. Look for a spirited effort from Montreal here in a big rivalry game against a Boston team that they have beaten 10 of the last 15 times they have met. Thank you and good luck.
Anthony Michael
New England Patriots -9.5
The Jets are a complete mess on offense right now with horrible QB play and pretty much worse WR play. Coach Bill loves nothing more than to stick it to Coach Ryan so look for the Patriots to get a lead and keep pushing the pedal to the metal to get a big divisional win here.
New England Patriots -9.5
The Jets are a complete mess on offense right now with horrible QB play and pretty much worse WR play. Coach Bill loves nothing more than to stick it to Coach Ryan so look for the Patriots to get a lead and keep pushing the pedal to the metal to get a big divisional win here.
Jack Clayton
3* NYJETS / PATRIOTS UNDER THE TOTAL.
Reason: A rivalry game and the Jets and Rex Ryan always play well defensively against the Patriots. But this Jets offense is a joke at 1-5. New York put a lot of emotion on Sunday at home against the Broncos to try and end a 4-game skid but couldn’t, losing 31-17. They have a strong run defense and can pressure the passer, and the Pats offensive line has been a problem. They are piling up injuries on the offensive line, as well, a tough game Sunday against Buffalo. The new England defense, though, is exceptional with new CB Derrel Revis and the Jets will get only field goals while the Pats will go with a safe game plan on offense. Play the NY Jets/Patriots Under the total.
3* NYJETS / PATRIOTS UNDER THE TOTAL.
Reason: A rivalry game and the Jets and Rex Ryan always play well defensively against the Patriots. But this Jets offense is a joke at 1-5. New York put a lot of emotion on Sunday at home against the Broncos to try and end a 4-game skid but couldn’t, losing 31-17. They have a strong run defense and can pressure the passer, and the Pats offensive line has been a problem. They are piling up injuries on the offensive line, as well, a tough game Sunday against Buffalo. The new England defense, though, is exceptional with new CB Derrel Revis and the Jets will get only field goals while the Pats will go with a safe game plan on offense. Play the NY Jets/Patriots Under the total.
VegasButcher
Giants (MLB)
There’s really not much more I can say about Bumgarner than what he’s already “said” about himself with his recent play. He’s thrown 23.2 innings in the postseason so far, allowed only 14 hits, 0 HR’s, 2 ER’s (0.76 ERA), and has 23 K to only 3 BB’s in this span. And that’s pitching @ PIT, vs WSN, and @ STL, on the road twice, and facing strong lineups each time. Like discussed the last few days, STL offense is much weaker without Molina in the lineup, and Pierzynski just adds another left-handed bat to the order, which is even worse against BumG. His 1.4 FIP against lefties ranks 2nd in the league, only behind Chris Sale’s 1.0. I’m sure we’ll see Cruz for the full game behind the plate today, only because he’s right-handed. At the same time I would also not be scared of BumG’s 4.0 ERA at home this year. A big factor here is an inflated .336 BABIP at home, as his 26% K-rate, 0.7 HR/9 rate, and 2.8/2.9 FIP/xFIP are all much stronger than they were on the road this season. These are elite numbers at home, and indicate that BumG has pitched more like a 2.8 FIP pitcher at home than a 4.0 ERA one. I trust the advanced stats in this scenario.
In any case, the bigger factor in this game is Wainwright. In his 2 post-season starts he’s allowed 17 hits, 8 ER’s (8.0 ERA), and a HR in 9 innings of work. He has 7 K but the 4 BB’s issued is a major red flag, given the fact that he rarely walks anyone at all. Last start vs. the Giants at home, Wainwright lasted 4.2 innings and threw 98 pitches. Prior to that he lasted 4.1 innings against LAD and threw 102 pitches. That’s as inefficient as it gets. Did you know that over the last two years, and including post-season, Wainwright has thrown 508 innings, the MOST out of any starter in the National League? Do you also remember that this is the guy that is 3 years removed from Tommy John Surgery? Reports indicate that it has been months now that Wainwright has been pitching with “tendinitis and discomfort around his right elbow” which is a big ‘Oh Oh’ sign. There was a study done in HardBallTimes earlier this year on TJS’s, and one of the interesting findings is that pitchers who usually get/need the 2nd TJSurgery are typically around 650 total innings pitched since the first one. Wainwright is at 640 total innings since his surgery, which is pretty much right on the mark. I hope that Wainwright is fine, I really do, as he’s one of my favorite pitchers in the league. But the signs are all there to point out that something is clearly WainNOTright (yeah I know it’s a bad joke!) with him right now. Unfortunately for the Cards they don’t really have any other options at this point. Lynn is on 3-days rest (he should have been game 1 starter it looks like so that the Cards could have used him today), Wacha hasn’t been used at all, indicating that his shoulder isn’t right still, and there really isn’t anyone else. Cards will probably hope to get at least 3-4 innings out of Wainwright and then will rely on the BP again. But that is where San Fran’s second major advantage comes into play!
Both teams have used their BP’s throughout this series of course, but with Bumgarner going 7.2 innings in game 1, San Fran’s pen wasn’t really taxed much in that particular game. By comparison, a number of Cardinals’ relievers have pitched 4 out of the last 5 days (Choate / Manness) or 3 out of the last 4 (Neshek / Martinez). Giants have a few relievers in the same boat, but the overall workload has been lower. Let’s compare:
SFG bullpen (5 key relievers): 11.2 innings with 154 total pitches thrown @ 13.1 pitches per relief-inning and 31 pitches per reliever so far (Machi only threw 7 pitches so took him out of the equation and Petit wasn’t counted in this analysis as he’s a pseudo-starter, not really a reliever in a true sense).
STL bullpen (6 key relievers): 15 innings with 258 total pitches thrown @ 17.2 pitches per relief-inning and 43 pitches per reliever so far.
It’s pretty clear from these numbers that this Cardinals bullpen is a lot more taxed than the Giants’. At 43 pitches per reliever so far, that’s 39% higher than what San Fran’s relievers (31 total pitches per) have thrown on average. So which bullpen will you trust in the later innings of this one if Wainwright is ON and this game is close? And what if Wainwright’s elbow issues are real and he can’t go past the 4th/5th inning again, can you really trust this Cardinals bullpen to finish the game for him? I think we can make a very convincing argument that not only do the Giants have a strong advantage with their starter on the mound, but they also have a significant advantage with their BP in this one.
Finally, I want to point out that my MLB computer model has this game at -138 with a total of 6.4. There’s no ‘odds value’ on this game, but of course in the post-season you will very rarely find much pure value if any. What the model is telling us is that these odds listed for today are what they should be in an ideal scenario for both teams: starters healthy (Wainwright is not), both bullpens fresh (Cards’ are much more taxed), and both offensive and fielding lineups at their optimal (Molina is hurt). But that’s just not the case today as San Fran is in a much better shape from top to bottom. I wouldn’t be surprised to see this one go to -150 or even higher by the end of the day, but regardless of the odds, I love the chances of San Francisco Giants booking their trip to the World Series tonight.
Giants (MLB)
There’s really not much more I can say about Bumgarner than what he’s already “said” about himself with his recent play. He’s thrown 23.2 innings in the postseason so far, allowed only 14 hits, 0 HR’s, 2 ER’s (0.76 ERA), and has 23 K to only 3 BB’s in this span. And that’s pitching @ PIT, vs WSN, and @ STL, on the road twice, and facing strong lineups each time. Like discussed the last few days, STL offense is much weaker without Molina in the lineup, and Pierzynski just adds another left-handed bat to the order, which is even worse against BumG. His 1.4 FIP against lefties ranks 2nd in the league, only behind Chris Sale’s 1.0. I’m sure we’ll see Cruz for the full game behind the plate today, only because he’s right-handed. At the same time I would also not be scared of BumG’s 4.0 ERA at home this year. A big factor here is an inflated .336 BABIP at home, as his 26% K-rate, 0.7 HR/9 rate, and 2.8/2.9 FIP/xFIP are all much stronger than they were on the road this season. These are elite numbers at home, and indicate that BumG has pitched more like a 2.8 FIP pitcher at home than a 4.0 ERA one. I trust the advanced stats in this scenario.
In any case, the bigger factor in this game is Wainwright. In his 2 post-season starts he’s allowed 17 hits, 8 ER’s (8.0 ERA), and a HR in 9 innings of work. He has 7 K but the 4 BB’s issued is a major red flag, given the fact that he rarely walks anyone at all. Last start vs. the Giants at home, Wainwright lasted 4.2 innings and threw 98 pitches. Prior to that he lasted 4.1 innings against LAD and threw 102 pitches. That’s as inefficient as it gets. Did you know that over the last two years, and including post-season, Wainwright has thrown 508 innings, the MOST out of any starter in the National League? Do you also remember that this is the guy that is 3 years removed from Tommy John Surgery? Reports indicate that it has been months now that Wainwright has been pitching with “tendinitis and discomfort around his right elbow” which is a big ‘Oh Oh’ sign. There was a study done in HardBallTimes earlier this year on TJS’s, and one of the interesting findings is that pitchers who usually get/need the 2nd TJSurgery are typically around 650 total innings pitched since the first one. Wainwright is at 640 total innings since his surgery, which is pretty much right on the mark. I hope that Wainwright is fine, I really do, as he’s one of my favorite pitchers in the league. But the signs are all there to point out that something is clearly WainNOTright (yeah I know it’s a bad joke!) with him right now. Unfortunately for the Cards they don’t really have any other options at this point. Lynn is on 3-days rest (he should have been game 1 starter it looks like so that the Cards could have used him today), Wacha hasn’t been used at all, indicating that his shoulder isn’t right still, and there really isn’t anyone else. Cards will probably hope to get at least 3-4 innings out of Wainwright and then will rely on the BP again. But that is where San Fran’s second major advantage comes into play!
Both teams have used their BP’s throughout this series of course, but with Bumgarner going 7.2 innings in game 1, San Fran’s pen wasn’t really taxed much in that particular game. By comparison, a number of Cardinals’ relievers have pitched 4 out of the last 5 days (Choate / Manness) or 3 out of the last 4 (Neshek / Martinez). Giants have a few relievers in the same boat, but the overall workload has been lower. Let’s compare:
SFG bullpen (5 key relievers): 11.2 innings with 154 total pitches thrown @ 13.1 pitches per relief-inning and 31 pitches per reliever so far (Machi only threw 7 pitches so took him out of the equation and Petit wasn’t counted in this analysis as he’s a pseudo-starter, not really a reliever in a true sense).
STL bullpen (6 key relievers): 15 innings with 258 total pitches thrown @ 17.2 pitches per relief-inning and 43 pitches per reliever so far.
It’s pretty clear from these numbers that this Cardinals bullpen is a lot more taxed than the Giants’. At 43 pitches per reliever so far, that’s 39% higher than what San Fran’s relievers (31 total pitches per) have thrown on average. So which bullpen will you trust in the later innings of this one if Wainwright is ON and this game is close? And what if Wainwright’s elbow issues are real and he can’t go past the 4th/5th inning again, can you really trust this Cardinals bullpen to finish the game for him? I think we can make a very convincing argument that not only do the Giants have a strong advantage with their starter on the mound, but they also have a significant advantage with their BP in this one.
Finally, I want to point out that my MLB computer model has this game at -138 with a total of 6.4. There’s no ‘odds value’ on this game, but of course in the post-season you will very rarely find much pure value if any. What the model is telling us is that these odds listed for today are what they should be in an ideal scenario for both teams: starters healthy (Wainwright is not), both bullpens fresh (Cards’ are much more taxed), and both offensive and fielding lineups at their optimal (Molina is hurt). But that’s just not the case today as San Fran is in a much better shape from top to bottom. I wouldn’t be surprised to see this one go to -150 or even higher by the end of the day, but regardless of the odds, I love the chances of San Francisco Giants booking their trip to the World Series tonight.
