Steve Merril
(3% play) ARIZONA STATE -5.5 (vs. Oregon State) - 8:30 pm ET (Pac12) #754
Oregon State snapped their 3-game losing streak by beating USC as 2-point home underdogs on Sunday afternoon. The Beavers scored 85 points in that game after shooting 47.1% (32-68) from the field and 85.7% (18-21) from the free throw line. Oregon State shot terribly from the three-point line as they only hit 16.7% (3-18) from beyond the arc. The only reason Oregon State won that game was due to USC simply having one of their worst offensive games of the season. The Beavers won on the scoreboard, but they did nothing in that game to show that their recent funk is over. Now they must take to the road where they’ve lost their last two conference games by a combined 23 points. The Beavers’ offense is only averaging 63.8 points per game on 41.2% shooting from the field on the road this season. They only scored 53 and 54 points in their two conference road games.
Arizona State has lost three straight games, and six of their last seven games overall. However, the Sun Devils have played a brutal schedule during that span, including four of the seven games being on the road. Arizona State returns home off back-to-back road losses, and since they also lost their previous home game, we expect a peak performance tonight. The Sun Devils’ offense has also been terrific at home this season where they are averaging 79.8 points per game on 43.7% shooting from the field and 34.7% shooting from three-point land. Arizona State is in a good bounce back spot, so we’ll lay the points with the Sun Devils in this game on Thursday night.
Play ARIZONA STATE (-) as a 3% play.
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(3% play) ILLINOIS -1.5 (vs. Ohio State) - 9:00 pm ET (BTN) #764
Ohio State is 13-8 SU on the season, but eleven of those wins have come on their home court. The Buckeyes are just 1-4 SU in true road games this season with their average loss coming by a whopping -23.7 points per game. Overall, Ohio State has played the #97 rated schedule this season, so the majority of their wins have come against inferior opponents. The Buckeyes did beat Illinois earlier this season, but they only won that game by 2 points (75-73). Ohio State won that game at the free throw line as they were +19 in points (28-9) and +28 in attempts (39-11). Despite that, the Buckeyes only won the game by 2 points, and they won’t get the favorable home whistle in this game tonight. Ohio State’s offense is only averaging 61.8 points per game on 39.9% shooting from the field and 31.3% shooting from three-point land on the road this season.
Illinois comes into this game off a 76-71 overtime win at Minnesota on Saturday night. Off that win, we expect a strong home performance here, especially since the Illini lost their previous home game. Illinois’ offense has played much better basketball at home where they are averaging 77.7 points per game on 45.6% shooting from the field and 37.7% shooting from three-point land this season. Ohio State’s defense is giving up 78.2 points per game on 47.2% shooting from the field and 35.5% shooting from three-point land on the road this season. We’ll back Illinois in this game on Thursday night.
Play ILLINOIS (-) as a 3% play.
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(3% play) UCLA -6 (vs. Washington) - 10:00 pm ET (FS1) #772
Washington is having a much better season than projected as the Huskies come into this game with a 13-6 SU record. The Huskies are off an 80-75 home loss to Utah on Sunday night. Washington was a 4-point underdog in that game, and after rallying late to tie the game, they came up short in overtime. That was their third overtime game in their last seven games, and that loss may linger for awhile. Washington now takes to the road where their defense is giving up 93 points per game on 51.6% shooting from the field and 43.6% shooting from three-point land. Washington beat UCLA 96-93 in overtime at home earlier this season. The difference in that game came from three-point land where the Huskies were +24 points after making 11 three’s to just 3 made three’s for the Bruins. Despite that, Washington only won the game by 3 points in overtime.
UCLA is just 1-2 SU during their past three games, but they played two of those games on the road. The Bruins return home off a road loss at Oregon, and since they also lost their previous home game, we expect a strong bounce back performance here. UCLA is 9-2 SU at home where they are averaging 81.5 points per game on 47.5% shooting from the field and 38.3% shooting from three-point land this season. The Bruins’ defense has been terrific at home; they are holding opponents to just 40% shooting from the field and 33.6% shooting from three-point land. The Bruins are in an excellent bounce back spot, so we’ll lay the points with UCLA in this game on Thursday night.
Play UCLA (-) as a 3% play.
