Dave Essler: Triple Dime GOW
PLAY: UCONN
RATING: TRIPLE DIME PLAY
Buying the hook to -2 - in part because we need this out early and in part because I do think it's going to be the best number. Betting against UConn at home is just something I rarely/ever do. They lost one game at home to Temple this season (Temple also beat Cincinnati).They lost two conference home games last season (one to Temple, again) and by a point to Memphis. The prior year they lost two # ranked L'ville and to SMU. You get the point. This line would reflect the fact that they rate these teams even, giving Uconn the HCA (home court advantage) of +3. I don't rate these teams even and give UConn a much bigger advantage at home. Let's look at the Bearcats, who were a betting darling early this season and uncharacteristically scoring a ton of point. However, they did that against some weak teams which of course showed up when they proceeded to lose to Butler and VCU. Fast forward to AAC playÇ - they've played three road games, losing at SMU and Temple, beating South Florida, and only by three. Now to the matchup - Cincinnati is scoring a very large % of their points inside, especially in AAC play (55%). In Conference play UConn has the #1 ranked two-point defense, only allowing a 37% conversion rate, and they have a length advantage. Cincinnati doesn't spend a lot of time at the FT line, whereas not only DOES Uconn live at the line, but in AAC play they're shooting 82% - which we not only love throughout a game but down the stretch to cover close games. The Bearcats have the #2 ranked defense (efficiency) in the ACC - Uconn is numero uno. UConn will shoot three's and that's clearly the weakest link in Cincinnati's defense. Daniel Hamilton is a tough cover for anyone as a 6'7" point guard - and of course there's Sterling Gibbs (Seton Hall transfer). We worry about Cobb from deep and Ellis inside with the Bearcats - UConn has depth/length with Facey, Nolan, and even seldom used Steven Enoch all at 6'10" or better to make Ellis work at both ends. Cobb built a lot of his stats against the weaker sisters this season (certainly not doubting his ability) and in his best game in Conference play he scored 24 against SMU - they lost - and only scored 57 as a team. So, he MAY get his - but he'll need help and I don't see where it comes from. Conversely, UConn has a multitude of ways to win. Defensively as referred to, at the line, or simply draining three's over the weakest part of the Bearcats defense. I'll add thoughts on other games later, as always - and good luck.
PLAY: UCONN
RATING: TRIPLE DIME PLAY
Buying the hook to -2 - in part because we need this out early and in part because I do think it's going to be the best number. Betting against UConn at home is just something I rarely/ever do. They lost one game at home to Temple this season (Temple also beat Cincinnati).They lost two conference home games last season (one to Temple, again) and by a point to Memphis. The prior year they lost two # ranked L'ville and to SMU. You get the point. This line would reflect the fact that they rate these teams even, giving Uconn the HCA (home court advantage) of +3. I don't rate these teams even and give UConn a much bigger advantage at home. Let's look at the Bearcats, who were a betting darling early this season and uncharacteristically scoring a ton of point. However, they did that against some weak teams which of course showed up when they proceeded to lose to Butler and VCU. Fast forward to AAC playÇ - they've played three road games, losing at SMU and Temple, beating South Florida, and only by three. Now to the matchup - Cincinnati is scoring a very large % of their points inside, especially in AAC play (55%). In Conference play UConn has the #1 ranked two-point defense, only allowing a 37% conversion rate, and they have a length advantage. Cincinnati doesn't spend a lot of time at the FT line, whereas not only DOES Uconn live at the line, but in AAC play they're shooting 82% - which we not only love throughout a game but down the stretch to cover close games. The Bearcats have the #2 ranked defense (efficiency) in the ACC - Uconn is numero uno. UConn will shoot three's and that's clearly the weakest link in Cincinnati's defense. Daniel Hamilton is a tough cover for anyone as a 6'7" point guard - and of course there's Sterling Gibbs (Seton Hall transfer). We worry about Cobb from deep and Ellis inside with the Bearcats - UConn has depth/length with Facey, Nolan, and even seldom used Steven Enoch all at 6'10" or better to make Ellis work at both ends. Cobb built a lot of his stats against the weaker sisters this season (certainly not doubting his ability) and in his best game in Conference play he scored 24 against SMU - they lost - and only scored 57 as a team. So, he MAY get his - but he'll need help and I don't see where it comes from. Conversely, UConn has a multitude of ways to win. Defensively as referred to, at the line, or simply draining three's over the weakest part of the Bearcats defense. I'll add thoughts on other games later, as always - and good luck.
