STATSYSTEMS SPORTS STAT/SHEETS, 1/16/14
NCAA COLLEGE BASKETBALL
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
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***** Thursday, 1/16/14 NCAACB Knowledge *****
(ALL RESULTS ATS) - Against The Spread - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Each and every day during the 2013-14 NCAA College Basketball season we will analyze all of your daily basketball action, featuring all our Highly-Rated (Situational & Match-up) Power Trends, along with some of our Situational Analysis (Betting Systems) that pertain to some of that days match-ups.
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Betting Notes - Thursday
•Georgia State won last seven games, with four of last five on road; they won first three Sun Belt games by 9-10-23 points, while protecting ball better than anyone in US (12.9% turnover rate), while forcing turnovers 21.9% of time. Arkansas State is 0-4 versus top 100 teams,; all losses were by 12+ points; Red Wolves make 39.4% of 3's, #26 in nation. Sun Belt home favorites are 4-10 versus spread.
•Missouri made 11-21 from arc in 81-59 drubbing of Vanderbilt LY, first SEC series meeting; game was 49-20 at half. Tigers won its two games on road, by 4 at NC State, 2 at Auburn. Commodores lost three of last four games, losing at Alabama by 5, to Kentucky by 9 here in first two conference games. SEC home teams are 6-2-1 versus spread in games with spread of 5 or less points.
•Memphis won five of last six games, but loss was to Cincinnati in only AAC home game; Tigers are shooting just 29.4% from arc, but they get turnovers 22.7% of time, leading to shorter possessions (0:15.8, #31 in US). Connecticut is 1-2 in true road games winning by 12 at Washington, but losing at Houston/SMU in AAC games. Huskies are making 41.4% on arc. AAC home favorites of 6+ points are 4-6 versus spread.
•Colorado has horrible injury luck, losing star Dinwiddie for year, frosh Fletcher for six weeks; this will be emotional game for them after losing to UCLA by 13-3 points in first two Pac-12 meetings. UCLA lost by 9 at Missouri in only true road game, back on Dec 7; Bruins are shooting 41% from arc (#12 in US), 55% inside it, but they haven't left LA much. Pac-12 home dogs of less than 5 points are 4-3 versus spread.
•Ohio State won its last six games with Minnesota, winning last two here by 13-10 points; Buckeyes lost last two games to Michigan State/Iowa after a 15-0 start- they split pair of road games, winning at Purdue by 9, losing in OT in East Lansing. Big Dozen home underdogs are 3-4, 0-3 if getting less than 4 points. Gophers split first four conference games- all four games were decided by 3 or less points, or in OT.
•BYU won three of four WCC meetings with San Francisco, winning by 1-4 in its visits here; home team won all five of Cougars WCC games so far this year- BYU lost by 11 at LMU, 6 at Pepperdine, before winning last three games at home. USF is 4-2 in WCC with two OT wins- they got whacked at Gonzaga/St Mary's, but beat Pepperdine/LMU at home. WCC favorites are 8-3 if spread was five or less points.
•Arizona won five of last six games with Arizona State, winning last three in Tucson by 11-17-15 points; Wildcats play great defense (#2 eFG% in US) and share ball well with McConnell at PG- they also rebound 41% of their own missed shots. Pac-12 double digit home favorites are 4-3 versus spread. ASU is 13-4 with three losses by 11+ points; Carson is terrific PG, but rest of team isn't athletic enough for this opponent.
•Gonzaga won last 20 games with Pepperdine, but they had similar win streak versus Portland and lost to Pilots last week; Zags' last eight wins here were all by 10+ points. Waves are 4-2 in WCC, beating San Diego, BYU in only two road games. Gonzaga won by 4 at West Virginia, lost at Portland in their only two true road games. WCC home underdogs are 3-2, 3-0 if they're getting 6+ points.
•USC won two of first three Pac-12 games with Utah, winning here by 17 LY, then losing to Utes in Pac-12 tourney; Trojans lost first three games in league this year by 34-19-20 points- they're shooting 21.7% from arc, turning ball over 23.2% of time in conference games. Pac-12 home favorites are 7-6, 4-3 if laying double digits. Utah is 1-3 in Pac-12 with all three losses by 3 or less points- they make 57.7% of 2's, #1 in country.
•Long Beach State won last five games with UCSB, winning last three in Thunderdome by 16-23-7 points, but 49ers overscheduled again (played #2 schedule to this point), are just 3-11 versus D-I teams- they've played 10 top 100 teams already. Gauchos lost Big West opener at home by 8 to Cal Poly, but they also beat California in this gym and Cal is good- UCSB has made 38.6% from arc so far- they were 2-17 against Cal Poly.
•Belmont beat Eastern Kentucky by 7-11 points in their first season in Ohio Valley Conference; Bruins are 4-0 in OVC this year, with three wins by 11+ points and road wins by 13-15 at SE Missouri/UT-Martin. EKU are forcing turnovers 23.4% (#9) of time; they're 2-2 in OVC, losing to Murray St. in conference home opener. OVC home favorites of 3 or less points are 3-2 versus spread. Belmont's offensive eFG% of 58.0% is #2 in country.
•North Dakota State hammered Nebraska-Omaha by 44-27 points LY; Bison are 3-1 at home versus D-I teams, losing to Southern Miss by point- they're making 56.9% of 2's but aren't great defensive team. Omaha is improved this year- they lost by 8 at Iowa, 3 at UNLV and beat Nevada in Reno; Mavericks force turnovers 20.8% of time, make 78.7% of free throws, #2 in country they also force turnovers 20.8% of time.
•Fort Wayne is 4-4 on road, with all four wins versus teams ranked at #227 or lower; Mastodons make 38.9% of 3's (#32), won their first two Summit League games over ND State/SD State, both at home. Fort Wayne is 1-3 versus teams ranked in top 150, beating North Dakota State last week. Denver runs Princeton offense, which can be tough to prepare for; they've lost four of last six games, with last three losses by 5 or less points or in OT.
•Situational Trends of The Day
-- IUPUI is 0-12 ATS (-13.2 Units) after 2 straight games forcing opponent to commit 11 or less turnovers over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was IUPUI 66.8, OPPONENT 77.1.
-- MURRAY ST is 12-1 UNDER (+10.9 Units) after scoring 80 points or more over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was MURRAY ST 71.6, OPPONENT 61.6.
-- MOREHEAD ST is 0-10 (-11.0 Units) against the 1rst half line after playing 2 consecutive games as favorite over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was MOREHEAD ST 26.9, OPPONENT 35.4.
-- OLD DOMINION is 15-1 UNDER (+13.9 Units) the 1rst half total in road games off a road win against a conference rival since 1997.
The average score was OLD DOMINION 28.6, OPPONENT 27.8.
-- LARRY KRYSTKOWIAK is 17-2 ATS (+14.8 Units) after allowing 30 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games as the coach of UTAH.
The average score was KRYSTKOWIAK 67.1, OPPONENT 61.4.
•Matchup Trends of The Day
-- DENVER is 19-3 ATS (+15.7 Units) in home games versus teams who make 8 or more 3 point shots/game on the season since 1997.
The average score was DENVER 71.6, OPPONENT 65.4.
-- RIDER is 12-0 OVER (+12.0 Units) versus poor passing teams, averaging <=12 assists/game over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was RIDER 75.7, OPPONENT 71.4.
-- E ILLINOIS is 0-7 (-7.7 Units) against the 1rst half line versus good shooting teams - making >=45% of their shots this season.
The average score was E ILLINOIS 27.4, OPPONENT 39.6.
-- OAKLAND is 13-1 OVER (+11.9 Units) the 1rst half total versus good defensive teams - shooting pct defense of <=42% after 15+ games since 1997.
The average score was OAKLAND 37.4, OPPONENT 39.5.
-- DANNY MANNING is 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) versus good 3 point shooting teams - making >=37% of their attempts as the coach of TULSA.
The average score was MANNING 68.2, OPPONENT 68.5.
•Situation Analysis of The Day
-- Play On - A road team versus the money line (ARK-LITTLE ROCK) - average 3PT shooting team (32-36.5%) against a poor 3PT shooting team (<=32%), after a game - attempting 20+ less free throws than opponent.
(20-8 over the last 5 seasons.) (71.4%, +29.7 units. Rating = 5*)
The average money line posted in these games was: Team underdog with a money line of: +188.5
The average score in these games was: Team 63.5, Opponent 65.4 (Average point differential = -1.9)
The situation's record this season is: (2-0, +5 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (12-4, +22 units).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (46-48, +16.5 units).
-- Play On - Road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (UTEP) - poor three point shooting team (<=32%) against an average 3PT defense (32-36.5%), after game - allowing a shooting pct. of 33% or less.
(26-5 over the last 5 seasons.) (83.9%, +20.5 units. Rating = 3*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is : (14-18 over the last 5 seasons.)
The average line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 6.1
The average score in these games was: Team 69.8, Opponent 70.4 (Average point differential = -0.7)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 13 (40.6% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (2-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (17-4).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (62-35).
-- Play Under - Road teams where the total is between 130 and 139.5 points (ARIZONA ST) - in a game involving 2 very good teams - outscoring opponents by 8+ PPG in the 2nd half of the season, after a loss by 15 points or more.
(24-5 over the last 5 seasons.) (82.8%, +18.5 units. Rating = 3*)
The average total posted in these games was: 139.4
The average score in these games was: Team 64.7, Opponent 67.6 (Total points scored = 132.2)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 14 (50% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (10-3).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (45-20).
-- Play Against - Home favorites of 2 to 5.5 points versus the first half line (JACKSONVILLE ST) - off an upset loss as a home favorite against opponent off a road loss by 10 points or more.
(40-11 over the last 5 seasons.) (78.4%, +27.9 units. Rating = 4*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 3.6
The average first half score in these games was: Team 31.2, Opponent 31 (Average first half point differential = +0.2)
The situation's record this season is: (2-1).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (22-5).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (114-85).
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Thursday's Match-ups
#509 HOUSTON @ #510 LOUISVILLE
(TV: 7:00 PM EST, CBS Sports - Line: Louisville -19.5, Total: N/A) - Visiting Houston and No. 14 Louisville could each have new lineups when they meet in American Athletic Conference action Thursday. Cardinals point guard Chris Jones (oblique) will miss the game and forward Wayne Blackshear will come off the bench because of foul trouble in his last several games, coach Rick Pitino announced during Wednesday's press conference. The Cougars might get starters Danuel House (knee) and L.J. Rose (foot) back this week, the Houston Chronicle reported Monday, after having three starters out for the past four games.
Thursday's meeting will feature two of the league's top big men. Louisville's Montrezl Harrell and Houston's TaShawn Thomas are ranked in the AAC's top three in rebounding and field-goal percentage, and Thomas tops the league with 3.6 blocks. Harrell has recorded back-to-back double-doubles for the defending national champions while Thomas is tied for the AAC lead with six double-doubles.
•ABOUT HOUSTON (10-6 SU, 7-4-0 ATS, 2-1 AAC): Thomas is ranked fourth in the AAC with a team-high 17 points per game and leads the Cougars, who haven't played since Jan. 7, with 8.9 rebounds. Jherrod Stiggers adds 10.3 points and has hit a team-high 31 3-pointers, and Danrad Knowles contributes 8.2 points off the bench. House (nine games), Rose (five) and J.J. Richardson (four) have missed significant action, but Richardson continues to be bothered by a foot injury.
•ABOUT LOUISVILLE (14-3 SU, 7-8-0 ATS, 3-1 AAC): Pitino said he will look to Russ Smith, who leads the team with 18.1 points and 4.9 assists, and Harrell (11.9 points, 8.4 rebounds) to play 35-to-38 minutes. Luke Hancock, who made his first start Sunday against Southern Methodist, adds 10.5 points and is averaging 18.5 points during his last four games. Louisville's solid defense started the week ranked third nationally in scoring margin (plus-20.1), fourth in steals (10.1) and third in turnover margin (plus-7), but the Cardinals have been outrebounded in six straight games.
•PREGAME NOTES: Louisville leads the series - which hasn't been played since the teams capped nine seasons as Conference USA foes in 2005 - 13-5 overall and 7-0 at home.... Louisville has held opponents to 37.9 percent shooting in its 14 wins and allowed a 49.4 percent clip in three losses.... Harrell started the week ranked fifth nationally in field-goal percentage (63.7) and Thomas seventh (62.9).
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, LOUISVILLE covered the spread 500 times, while HOUSTON covered the spread 500 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, LOUISVILLE won the game straight up 901 times, while HOUSTON won 88 times. In 1000 simulated games, HOUSTON covered the first half line 556 times, while LOUISVILLE covered the first half line 397 times. *EDGE against first half line =HOUSTON.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--LOUISVILLE is 4-3 against the spread versus HOUSTON since 1997
--LOUISVILLE is 6-1 straight up against HOUSTON since 1997
--2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1997
--HOUSTON is 4-3 versus the first half line when playing against LOUISVILLE since 1997.
--1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1997.
•RECENT TRENDS
--HOU is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games.
--Under is 7-1 in HOU last 8 overall.
--Over is 9-4 in HOU last 13 road games.
--Over is 17-6 in LOU last 23 overall.
--Over is 14-4 in LOU last 18 home games.
--Under is 11-3 in LOU last 14 Thu. games.
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#523 CONNECTICUT @ #524 MEMPHIS
(TV: 7:00 PM EST, ESPN - Line: Memphis -6.5, Total: 140.5) - Connecticut notched its first American Athletic Conference win over the weekend but is looking at a daunting task to earn a second. The Huskies will look for their first conference road win when they visit 17th-ranked Memphis on Thursday. The Tigers just took back-to-back AAC games on the road behind Shaq Goodwin and carry that momentum into a four-game homestand.
Goodwin put up 15 points and eight rebounds in a 73-67 win at Louisville and was even stronger in Saturday’s 79-69 triumph at Temple, collecting 23 points and 11 boards. The display earned the sophomore forward his second AAC Player of the Week award this season and propelled Memphis higher up the national rankings. Goodwin will have to find his way around Connecticut center Amida Brimah, who came off the bench to record career highs of 20 points and eight rebounds along with five blocks in an 84-61 home win over Central Florida on Saturday.
•ABOUT CONNECTICUT (13-3 SU, 6-8-0 ATS, 1-2 AAC): The Huskies don’t have much of an interior presence among the starting five, as evidenced by point guard Shabazz Napier’s team-leading average of 6.4 rebounds, but Brimah has come along steadily this season and finally broke out on the offensive end on Saturday. “The kid works extremely hard,” coach Kevin Ollie told reporters of the freshman center from Ghana. “So whatever he gets, he earns... The kid just loves life. He’s very grateful to be here on this basketball team.” Brimah’s presence allowed Connecticut to do more damage in the paint than usual and helped make up for another poor shooting effort from Napier, who is 9-for-31 in the last three contests.
•ABOUT MEMPHIS (12-3 SU, 8-5-0 ATS, 3-1 AAC): Goodwin totaled 11 points in the two games prior to breaking out last week but became a much bigger part of the offense as both Louisville and Temple struggled to match up against his blend of size and athleticism. The Tigers will likely attempt to exploit the same problems against the Huskies, who are one of the few teams that can match up on the perimeter with Memphis. The Tigers rotate four senior guards and are comfortable letting all four run the offense and hoist 3-pointers. Chris Crawford led the team with eight assists in the win over Temple and is tied for second on the team in the category.
•PREGAME NOTES: Tigers G Joe Jackson is 0-for-10 from 3-point range over the last three games.... Connecticut leads the AAC in free-throw (76.4) and 3-point percentage (41.4).... Memphis shot 33.3 percent in its last home game - a 69-53 loss to Cincinnati on Jan. 4.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, CONNECTICUT covered the spread 647 times, while MEMPHIS covered the spread 353 times. *EDGE against the spread =CONNECTICUT. In 1000 simulated games, MEMPHIS won the game straight up 550 times, while CONNECTICUT won 421 times. In 1000 simulated games, 632 games went over the total, while 368 games went under the total. *EDGE against the total =OVER.
--In 1000 simulated games, CONNECTICUT covered the first half line 622 times, while MEMPHIS covered the first half line 378 times. *EDGE against first half line =CONNECTICUT. In 1000 simulated games, 612 games went over first half total, while 337 games went under first half total. *EDGE against first half total =OVER.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--MEMPHIS is 1-0 against the spread versus CONNECTICUT since 1997.
--MEMPHIS is 1-0 straight up against CONNECTICUT since 1997.
--1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1997.
--CONNECTICUT is 1-0 versus the first half line when playing against MEMPHIS since 1997.
--1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1997.
•RECENT TRENDS
--UCONN is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games.
--UCONN is 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games overall.
--Over is 15-5-1 in UCONN last 21 road games.
--MEM is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games.
--MEM is 6-0 ATS in their last 6 Thursday games.
--Under is 9-3 in MEM last 12 Thu. games.
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#537 UCLA @ #538 COLORADO
(TV: 8:00 PM EST, Pac 12 Network - Line: UCLA -2, Total: 153) - Colorado is off to a 14-3 start that includes wins over Kansas and Oregon, but forgive the Buffaloes if they aren't exactly jumping for joy these days. A once-promising season has hit a major road block with the loss of star point guard Spencer Dinwiddie to a season-ending knee injury, and Colorado will play its first full game without the team's leading scorer and assist man against visiting UCLA on Thursday. The matchup between the 22nd-ranked Buffaloes and the 25th-ranked Bruins clearly lost some of its luster with the absence of Dinwiddie, who is considered a legitimate NBA prospect.
“It’s a big blow for him.... He’s worked so hard to put himself in the position he has and help lead this team to where we are today,” Colorado coach Tad Boyle said of Dinwiddie, who leads the team with 14.7 points and 3.8 assists. “To have that all taken away from you in one basketball play is ... it’s tough.” Diwnwiddie tore his left ACL during the first half of Sunday's 17-point loss at Washington - a defeat that snapped a four-game winning streak for the Buffaloes. The Bruins, meanwhile, have won four of their last five with the only loss coming in a four-point heartbreaker against No. 1 Arizona.
•ABOUT UCLA (13-3 SU, 9-6-0 ATS, 2-1 Pac 12): The Bruins have lost to arguably the three best teams they have faced this season - Missouri, Duke and Arizona - but they notched a solid win over Arizona State on Sunday. Five players scored in double figures for UCLA, led by talented freshman reserve Zach LaVine (19 points) and sophomore guard Kyle Anderson (17 points, 13 rebounds, seven assists). Another first-year guard, Bryce Alford, has averaged 15 points over his last three games and has made half of his 46 attempts from 3-point range on the season.
•ABOUT COLORADO (14-3 SU, 9-7-0 ATS, 3-1 Pac 12): Boyle has spoken to his players about keeping their heads up and remaining focused despite the loss of their leader. “What I told the team is that we don’t have to beat every team without Spencer,” Boyle said. “We have to figure out a way to beat UCLA without Spencer. That’s all we’ve got to do." The Buffaloes also need Askia Booker to author an improved performance from his scoreless effort (0-of-9 from the field, three turnovers) against the Huskies.
•PREGAME NOTES: With Dinwiddie injured for much of the Washington game, Colorado had 20 turnovers and only six assists, and no player had more than one assist.... Sophomore F Josh Scott (13.6 points, 9.2 rebounds) has emerged as a quality offensive option, although he will need to be more aggressive for the Buffaloes, as he has yet to take more than 12 shots in a game (or score more than 20 points) this season.... Entering Wednesday's action, the Bruins ranked third in the nation in field-goal percentage (51.4), fourth in assists (18.1) and sixth in points (86.3).
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, UCLA covered the spread 494 times, while COLORADO covered the spread 470 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, UCLA won the game straight up 560 times, while COLORADO won 408 times. In 1000 simulated games, 570 games went over the total, while 398 games went under the total. *EDGE against the total =OVER.
--In 1000 simulated games, UCLA covered the first half line 537 times, while COLORADO covered the first half line 414 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, 569 games went over first half total, while 431 games went under first half total. *EDGE against first half total =OVER.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--UCLA is 2-0 against the spread versus COLORADO since 1997.
--UCLA is 2-0 straight up against COLORADO since 1997.
--1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1997.
--COLORADO is 1-1 versus the first half line when playing against UCLA since 1997.
--1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1997.
•RECENT TRENDS
--UCLA is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 vs. Pacific-12.
--UCLA is 0-7 ATS L7 road games following three or more consecutive home games.
--Under is 4-0 in UCLA L4 road games following three or more consecutive home games.
--COLO is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 Thursday games.
--Under is 7-2 in COLO last 9 Thu. games.
--Under is 36-17 in COLO last 53 vs. Pacific-12.
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#543 OHIO ST @ #544 MINNESOTA
(TV: 9:00 PM EST, ESPN2 - Line: Ohio State -3, Total: 132.5) - No. 9 Ohio State, which started the season with 15 consecutive wins, will try to snap a two-game losing streak when it visits Minnesota on Thursday night. The Buckeyes and Gophers enter the game tied for fifth place in the Big Ten standings at 2-2 but that isn't the only thing they have in common. Both schools also lost in overtime last week at Michigan State.
This is only the third road game of the season for Ohio State, which won at Marquette (52-35) and Purdue (84-53) before falling at Michigan State in OT 72-68. Minnesota is 10-1 at home with the lone loss a 63-60 setback to Michigan in its Big Ten opener. The Buckeyes have won six in a row over the Gophers and are 26-3 against Minnesota when ranked nationally.
•ABOUT OHIO STATE (15-2 SU, 9-7-0 ATS, 2-2 Big Ten): The Buckeyes, who average only 11 turnovers per game, committed a total of 38 in back-to-back losses to Michigan State and Iowa. Normally steady senior point guard Aaron Craft, who is averaging 9.1 points and five assists, had 10 turnovers in those two games after committing a total of 27 turnovers in the previous 15 games. Athletic forward LaQuinton Ross leads the team in scoring (13.6) and is also shooting a team-best 39.7 percent from 3-point range.
•ABOUT MINNESOTA (13-4 SU, 5-8-1 ATS, 2-2 Big Ten): First-year coach Richard Pitino just missed garnering a signature win when the Gophers fell in overtime 87-75 at Michigan State on Saturday. The Gophers rely heavily on their outside shooting and have had 11 games with at least eight made 3-pointers. Guard Andre Hollins (16.3) leads the team in scoring while guard Austin Hollins (no relation) is second (12.1).
•PREGAME NOTES: Ohio State ranks No. 1 in the Big Ten in scoring defense, allowing 57.6 points per game.... Minnesota center Elliott Eliason has had six games with at least four blocks.... Craft and fellow senior guard Lenzelle Smith Jr. have recorded 109 wins in their Ohio State careers.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, MINNESOTA covered the spread 485 times, while OHIO ST covered the spread 478 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, OHIO ST won the game straight up 578 times, while MINNESOTA won 393 times. In 1000 simulated games, 675 games went over the total, while 325 games went under the total. *EDGE against the total =OVER.
--In 1000 simulated games, MINNESOTA covered the first half line 489 times, while OHIO ST covered the first half line 469 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, 644 games went over first half total, while 320 games went under first half total. *EDGE against first half total =OVER.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--OHIO ST is 14-10 against the spread versus MINNESOTA since 1997.
--OHIO ST is 18-7 straight up against MINNESOTA since 1997.
--11 of 18 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1997.
--OHIO ST is 17-8 versus the first half line when playing against MINNESOTA since 1997.
--11 of 17 games in this series have gone UNDER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1997.
--Buckeyes are 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings.
--Home team is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings.
--Favorite is 12-1 ATS in the last 13 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--OSU is 8-1 ATS in their last 9 vs. Big Ten.
--OSU is 4-0 ATS L4 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
--Over is 16-5 in OSU last 21 Thu. games.
--MINN is 1-6 ATS in their last 7 vs. Big Ten.
--Under is 9-4 in MINN last 13 home games.
--Under is 11-4 in MINN last 15 vs. Big Ten.
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#547 ARIZONA ST @ #548 ARIZONA
(TV: 9:00 PM EST, Fox Sports 1 - Line: Arizona -13, Total: 133) - Top-ranked Arizona looks to remain unbeaten Thursday when the Wildcats host in-state rival Arizona State, which is coming off a 15-point loss at UCLA. While Arizona is off to the best start in school history, the Sun Devils have been plagued by inconsistent play. Point guard Jahii Carson led Arizona State to a 7-1 start, but the 5-10 sophomore has shot 34.8 percent from the field and averaged 14.4 points and 1.8 assists over the last five games.
Carson is hoping to bounce back from a dismal effort against UCLA last Sunday, when he scored nine points on 4-of-17 shooting in 30 minutes. “(Carson) didn’t play anywhere near his capability and that certainly has a tremendous impact on our team because he’s such a key player for us,” coach Herb Sendek told reporters. The Sun Devils need a huge game from Carson against Arizona, which ranks fourth nationally in scoring defense (56 points per game) while shooting 48.7 percent from the field.
•ABOUT ARIZONA STATE (13-4 SU, 9-6-0 ATS, 2-2 Pac-12): With Carson drawing most of the media attention, it’s easy to overlook the impact of guard Jermaine Marshall, who is the team’s second-leading scorer (15.6) while shooting 49.2 percent. “He’s one of our conference’s best guards,” Arizona coach Sean Miller told reporters. “Statistically speaking, when Arizona State’s at their best he seems to have a big night. He’s a kid who can score. Not just a shooter but somebody who can score.” The frontline is led by 7-2 center Jordan Bachynski, who has nine double-doubles this season.
•ABOUT ARIZONA (17-0 SU, 12-4-0 ATS, 4-0 Pac-12): Freshman forward Aaron Gordon, named as the USA Basketball Male Athlete of the Year earlier this week, leads a dominant frontcourt that includes Brandon Ashley, Rondae Hollis-Jefferson and 7-foot center Kaleb Tarczewski. Versatile guard Nick Johnson, who has averaged 13.8 points while shooting 51.4 percent in four career games against the Sun Devils, needs eight points to become the 48th member of Arizona’s 1,000-point club. Johnson plays three different positions and leads the Arizona defense, which has held opponents to 28 percent shooting from beyond the arc.
•PREGAME NOTES: Arizona leads the all-time series 144-80, including a 5-1 mark over the past six games.... Arizona State G Shaquielle McKissic is averaging 12.3 points and six rebounds over the past eight games.... The Wildcats are 31-7 in Pac-12 games at the McKale Center under Miller.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, ARIZONA ST covered the spread 521 times, while ARIZONA covered the spread 446 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, ARIZONA won the game straight up 807 times, while ARIZONA ST won 171 times. In 1000 simulated games, 722 games went over the total, while 253 games went under the total. *EDGE against the total =OVER.
--In 1000 simulated games, ARIZONA ST covered the first half line 593 times, while ARIZONA covered the first half line 407 times. *EDGE against first half line =ARIZONA ST. In 1000 simulated games, 656 games went over first half total, while 308 games went under first half total. *EDGE against first half total =OVER.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--ARIZONA is 18-16 against the spread versus ARIZONA ST since 1997.
--ARIZONA is 26-8 straight up against ARIZONA ST since 1997.
--17 of 29 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1997.
--ARIZONA is 22-11 versus the first half line when playing against ARIZONA ST since 1997.
--18 of 29 games in this series have gone UNDER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1997.
--Sun Devils are 1-4 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
--Under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.
--Favorite is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
--Under is 6-2 in the last 8 meetings in Arizona.
•RECENT TRENDS
--Under is 37-14-1 in ASU last 52 overall.
--Under is 19-7-1 in ASU last 27 Thu. games.
--Under is 34-16-1 in ASU last 51 vs. Pacific-12.
--ARIZ is 14-4 ATS in their last 18 home games.
--ARIZ is 19-7 ATS in their last 26 games overall.
--Under is 22-8-1 in ARIZ last 31 home games.
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#553 GONZAGA @ #554 PEPPERDINE
(TV: 10:00 PM EST, Time Warner Cable SportsNet - Line: Gonzaga -10, Total: N/A) - No. 24 Gonzaga looks to bounce back after its worst effort of the season when it visits Pepperdine on Thursday with first place in the West Coast Conference on the line. The Bulldogs, who were playing their first conference game on the road, trailed by as many as 17 points in losing at Portland 82-73 last time out. It was the first time the Pilots had defeated Gonzaga in their last 21 meetings.
Pepperdine moved a half-game behind Gonzaga in the WCC standings after edging San Diego over the weekend to snap a two-game losing streak. Stacy Davis scored a career-high 28 points to help the Waves move to 4-2 in the conference, their best start since 2004. Pepperdine's last win over Gonzaga was in 2002 in Malibu.
•ABOUT GONZAGA (14-3 SU, 7-7-1 ATS, 4-1 West Coast Conference): Gonzaga had its conference winning streak snapped at 22 games at Portland. The Bulldogs got 14 points from Sam Dower, who is back to full strength after suffering an ankle injury. Kevin Pangos added a dozen in the game but suffered through one of his worst shooting efforts (3-for-10) in a while for Gonzaga, which is still without starting guard Gary Bell Jr. (hand).
•ABOUT PEPPERDINE (11-7 SU, 11-4-0 ATS, 4-2 West Coast Conference): The Waves look to go on a roll as Thursday's contest starts a stretch of five of the next seven games at home. Brendan Lane and Malcolm Brooks returned to the lineup after missing last week's game against BYU with injuries to combine for 17 points in the 69-65 comeback win against San Diego. Lane, a transfer from UCLA, suffered a bad cut in the game that required 10 stitches but is expected to play tonight.
•PREGAME NOTES: Gonzaga ranks second in the nation in field goal percentage (51.5 percent).... Pepperdine is 4-2 at home, including 2-0 in WCC play.... Pepperdine looks to be at full strength. The Waves are 3-0 with its full roster.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, PEPPERDINE covered the spread 491 times, while GONZAGA covered the spread 475 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, GONZAGA won the game straight up 761 times, while PEPPERDINE won 219 times. In 1000 simulated games, PEPPERDINE covered the first half line 555 times, while GONZAGA covered the first half line 402 times. *EDGE against first half line =PEPPERDINE.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--GONZAGA is 23-9 against the spread versus PEPPERDINE since 1997.
--GONZAGA is 30-4 straight up against PEPPERDINE since 1997.
--13 of 22 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1997.
--GONZAGA is 24-9 versus the first half line when playing against PEPPERDINE since 1997.
--14 of 21 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1997.
--Bulldogs are 20-5-3 ATS in the last 28 meetings.
--Bulldogs are 2-0-2 ATS in the last 4 meetings in Pepperdine.
--Over is 8-3 in the last 11 meetings.
--Home team is 2-0-2 ATS in the last 4 meetings.
--Favorite is 18-5-3 ATS in the last 26 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--GONZ is 6-2-2 ATS in their last 10 Thu. games.
--Under is 9-2 in GONZ last 11 road games.
--Under is 37-14-1 in GONZ last 52 vs. West Coast.
--PEPP is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 Thursday games.
--PEPP is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 vs. West Coast.
--Over is 5-1 in PEPP last 6 home games.
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