Today's NBA Picks
Oklahoma City at Houston
The Rockets return home after last night's 103-100 win at New Orleans and bring a 5-1 ATS record in their last 6 games when playing on 0 days of rest into tonight's contest with Oklahoma City. Houston is the pick (-2) according to Dunkel, which has the Rockets favored by 4 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Houston (-2). Here are all of today's picks.
Oklahoma City at Houston
The Rockets return home after last night's 103-100 win at New Orleans and bring a 5-1 ATS record in their last 6 games when playing on 0 days of rest into tonight's contest with Oklahoma City. Houston is the pick (-2) according to Dunkel, which has the Rockets favored by 4 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Houston (-2). Here are all of today's picks.
| THURSDAY, JANUARY 16 Time Posted: 9:00 a.m. EST |
| Game 501-502: Brooklyn at Atlanta (3:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Brooklyn 120.240; Atlanta 116.322 Dunkel Line & Total: Brooklyn by 4; 196 Vegas Line & Total: Brooklyn by 2; 192 Dunkel Pick: Brooklyn (-2); Over |
| Game 503-504: New York at Indiana (7:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: New York 115.955; Indiana 130.491 Dunkel Line & Total: Indiana by 14 1/2; 177 Vegas Line & Total: Indiana by 10; 184 Dunkel Pick: Indiana (-10); Under |
| Game 505-506: Oklahoma City at Houston (9:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Oklahoma City 119.949; Houston 124.591 Dunkel Line & Total: Houston by 4 1/2; 212 Vegas Line & Total: Houston by 2; 206 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Houston (-2); Over |
NBA doubleheader: Knicks at Pacers, Thunder at Rockets
New York Knicks at Indiana Pacers (-10, 184)
The Indiana Pacers are seemingly invincible at home, where they'll try for their ninth straight victory when the New York Knicks visit Thursday. The Pacers' 19-1 home mark is a big reason why they own the NBA's best record, and they're coming off a 116-92 pasting of visiting Sacramento on Tuesday. The Knicks had a season-best five-game winning streak snapped with a 108-98 loss at Charlotte on Tuesday and dropped a half-game out of eighth place in the Eastern Conference.
Indiana is the top defensive team in the league, and the Pacers are especially stingy at Bankers Life Fieldhouse, where they allow just 83 points per game and hold opponents to 38.9 percent shooting. "It's a different story when you come to play here," Pacers star Paul George told reporters. "Whatever you've done previously, when a team comes in hot, we make that commitment that it's going to be tough to play here." The Knicks have not lost a season series to the Pacers since Indiana swept four games in 2007-08, but the Pacers won the first game of this season's three-game series 103-96 in overtime Nov. 20 in New York.
TV: 7 p.m. ET, TNT, MSG (New York)
LINE: The line is currently at Pacers -10. The total is opened at 184.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: New York (-6.1) - Indiana (-14.3) - home court (-3) = Indiana -11.1
ABOUT THE KNICKS (15-23, 16-22 ATS): New York's hot streak has come amid turmoil between coach Mike Woodson and enigmatic swingman J.R. Smith, who was benched for the second time in four games against the Bobcats. Smith (11.4 points) is one of only four players who average double-digit scoring for the Knicks. The Knicks got big man Tyson Chandler back against Charlotte after he missed the previous four games with bronchitis, but he didn't make much of an impact with five points and four rebounds in 16 minutes, and they're still without guard Pablo Prigioni (toe) and forward Metta World Peace (knee).
ABOUT THE PACERS (30-7, 25-12 ATS): Indiana's league-best defense starts with defending the rim, as the Pacers allow an NBA-low 34.2 points per game in the paint and ranks sixth in the league with 5.8 blocked shots per contest. The Pacers don't need to light up the scoreboard, but they're efficient and balanced on offense with all five starters averaging double-digit scoring and reserve Danny Granger (9.1 points) continuing to improve as he works his way back from injury. Indiana turned in one of its best offensive showings of the season against the Kings, shooting a season-high 54.9 percent and getting 31 points from leading scorer Paul George (22.8 points, 6.2 rebounds).
TRENDS:
* Favorite is 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings.
* Home team is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.
* Knicks are 1-4 ATS in the last five meetings.
* Knicks are 0-4 ATS in the last four meetings in Indiana.
BUZZER BEATERS:
1. Indiana has not allowed 100 or more points in its past 13 games and has done so only six times all season.
2. Knicks leading scorer Carmelo Anthony (26 points, 8.8 rebounds) tallied 30 points and 18 boards in the first meeting this season and averages 25.3 points in 26 career regular-season games against Indiana.
3. The Pacers are 20-0 when holding opponents under 90 points.
Oklahoma City Thunder at Houston Rockets (-2.5, 206)
The Houston Rockets finished up a four-game road trip with three straight wins but will get little time pat themselves on the back when they return home to host the Oklahoma City Thunder on the second night of a back-to-back Thursday. James Harden played the hero with eight points in the final three minutes of a 103-100 victory at New Orleans but is not always at his best against his former team. The Thunder are losers of three of four.
Oklahoma City is having a hard time without Russell Westbrook and is averaging 94.3 points in the last four games - more than 10 below its season mark. Kevin Durant is putting up an average of 37 points in that span but is getting little help. Harden is finding help up and down the Rockets roster of late with Terrence Jones and Chandler Parsons stepping up to join Harden, Dwight Howard and Jeremy Lin as a formidable offensive and defensive unit.
TV: 10:30 p.m. ET, TNT
LINE: The Rockets opened as 2.5-point faves. The total is currently at 206.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Oklahoma City (-12.5) - Houston (-10.5) + home court (-3) = Houston -1
ABOUT THE THUNDER (28-10, 20-18 ATS): Oklahoma City won its first two after Westbrook went down with another knee surgery but has since dropped five of eight, including its last three on the road. Durant went 15-of-28 from the floor in Tuesday’s 90-87 loss at Memphis but passed up the last shot and instead fired a pass to Serge Ibaka, who missed a 3-pointer. “That’s the thing I love about (Durant),” coach Scott Brooks told reporters. “He makes the right play. He can force a shot, but that wasn’t the right play.”
ABOUT THE ROCKETS (26-14, 20-17-2 ATS): Harden’s late-game offense was the key to overcoming a 17-point deficit at New Orleans on Wednesday, but defensive plays by Howard and Jones underneath were what set that offense up. Jones scored a career-high 25 points on Wednesday but also blocked six shots and has recorded 12 blocks in the last three games. The second-year forward has seen his minutes stay steady over the past two games even with Parsons back from a hamstring injury as Houston experimented with some bigger lineups.
TRENDS:
* Under is 6-1 in the last seven meetings.
* Thunder are 1-4 ATS in their last four road games.
* Rocket are 5-1 ATS in their last six games on no days rest.
* Under 6-1 in Thunder last seven versus a team with a winning SU record.
BUZZER BEATERS:
1. Harden was held to eight points on 2-of-9 shooting in a 117-86 loss at Oklahoma City on Dec. 29 and is averaging 24 points on 41 percent shooting in four career regular-season games against his original franchise.
2. Durant is just 6-for-30 from 3-point range in the last five games.
3. Houston G Aaron Brooks (knee) sat out Wednesday and is questionable for Thursday.
New York Knicks at Indiana Pacers (-10, 184)
The Indiana Pacers are seemingly invincible at home, where they'll try for their ninth straight victory when the New York Knicks visit Thursday. The Pacers' 19-1 home mark is a big reason why they own the NBA's best record, and they're coming off a 116-92 pasting of visiting Sacramento on Tuesday. The Knicks had a season-best five-game winning streak snapped with a 108-98 loss at Charlotte on Tuesday and dropped a half-game out of eighth place in the Eastern Conference.
Indiana is the top defensive team in the league, and the Pacers are especially stingy at Bankers Life Fieldhouse, where they allow just 83 points per game and hold opponents to 38.9 percent shooting. "It's a different story when you come to play here," Pacers star Paul George told reporters. "Whatever you've done previously, when a team comes in hot, we make that commitment that it's going to be tough to play here." The Knicks have not lost a season series to the Pacers since Indiana swept four games in 2007-08, but the Pacers won the first game of this season's three-game series 103-96 in overtime Nov. 20 in New York.
TV: 7 p.m. ET, TNT, MSG (New York)
LINE: The line is currently at Pacers -10. The total is opened at 184.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: New York (-6.1) - Indiana (-14.3) - home court (-3) = Indiana -11.1
ABOUT THE KNICKS (15-23, 16-22 ATS): New York's hot streak has come amid turmoil between coach Mike Woodson and enigmatic swingman J.R. Smith, who was benched for the second time in four games against the Bobcats. Smith (11.4 points) is one of only four players who average double-digit scoring for the Knicks. The Knicks got big man Tyson Chandler back against Charlotte after he missed the previous four games with bronchitis, but he didn't make much of an impact with five points and four rebounds in 16 minutes, and they're still without guard Pablo Prigioni (toe) and forward Metta World Peace (knee).
ABOUT THE PACERS (30-7, 25-12 ATS): Indiana's league-best defense starts with defending the rim, as the Pacers allow an NBA-low 34.2 points per game in the paint and ranks sixth in the league with 5.8 blocked shots per contest. The Pacers don't need to light up the scoreboard, but they're efficient and balanced on offense with all five starters averaging double-digit scoring and reserve Danny Granger (9.1 points) continuing to improve as he works his way back from injury. Indiana turned in one of its best offensive showings of the season against the Kings, shooting a season-high 54.9 percent and getting 31 points from leading scorer Paul George (22.8 points, 6.2 rebounds).
TRENDS:
* Favorite is 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings.
* Home team is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.
* Knicks are 1-4 ATS in the last five meetings.
* Knicks are 0-4 ATS in the last four meetings in Indiana.
BUZZER BEATERS:
1. Indiana has not allowed 100 or more points in its past 13 games and has done so only six times all season.
2. Knicks leading scorer Carmelo Anthony (26 points, 8.8 rebounds) tallied 30 points and 18 boards in the first meeting this season and averages 25.3 points in 26 career regular-season games against Indiana.
3. The Pacers are 20-0 when holding opponents under 90 points.
Oklahoma City Thunder at Houston Rockets (-2.5, 206)
The Houston Rockets finished up a four-game road trip with three straight wins but will get little time pat themselves on the back when they return home to host the Oklahoma City Thunder on the second night of a back-to-back Thursday. James Harden played the hero with eight points in the final three minutes of a 103-100 victory at New Orleans but is not always at his best against his former team. The Thunder are losers of three of four.
Oklahoma City is having a hard time without Russell Westbrook and is averaging 94.3 points in the last four games - more than 10 below its season mark. Kevin Durant is putting up an average of 37 points in that span but is getting little help. Harden is finding help up and down the Rockets roster of late with Terrence Jones and Chandler Parsons stepping up to join Harden, Dwight Howard and Jeremy Lin as a formidable offensive and defensive unit.
TV: 10:30 p.m. ET, TNT
LINE: The Rockets opened as 2.5-point faves. The total is currently at 206.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Oklahoma City (-12.5) - Houston (-10.5) + home court (-3) = Houston -1
ABOUT THE THUNDER (28-10, 20-18 ATS): Oklahoma City won its first two after Westbrook went down with another knee surgery but has since dropped five of eight, including its last three on the road. Durant went 15-of-28 from the floor in Tuesday’s 90-87 loss at Memphis but passed up the last shot and instead fired a pass to Serge Ibaka, who missed a 3-pointer. “That’s the thing I love about (Durant),” coach Scott Brooks told reporters. “He makes the right play. He can force a shot, but that wasn’t the right play.”
ABOUT THE ROCKETS (26-14, 20-17-2 ATS): Harden’s late-game offense was the key to overcoming a 17-point deficit at New Orleans on Wednesday, but defensive plays by Howard and Jones underneath were what set that offense up. Jones scored a career-high 25 points on Wednesday but also blocked six shots and has recorded 12 blocks in the last three games. The second-year forward has seen his minutes stay steady over the past two games even with Parsons back from a hamstring injury as Houston experimented with some bigger lineups.
TRENDS:
* Under is 6-1 in the last seven meetings.
* Thunder are 1-4 ATS in their last four road games.
* Rocket are 5-1 ATS in their last six games on no days rest.
* Under 6-1 in Thunder last seven versus a team with a winning SU record.
BUZZER BEATERS:
1. Harden was held to eight points on 2-of-9 shooting in a 117-86 loss at Oklahoma City on Dec. 29 and is averaging 24 points on 41 percent shooting in four career regular-season games against his original franchise.
2. Durant is just 6-for-30 from 3-point range in the last five games.
3. Houston G Aaron Brooks (knee) sat out Wednesday and is questionable for Thursday.
StatFox Super Situations - FoxSheets
CBB UTEP at MIDDLE TENN ST
Play On - Road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (UTEP) an average offensive team (67-74 PPG) against an average defensive team (67-74 PPG) after 15+ games, after scoring 30 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games
59-26 over the last 5 seasons. ( 69.4% 30.4 units )
4-1 this year. ( 80.0% 2.9 units )
CBB LOUISIANA TECH at TULANE
Play Against - Any team (TULANE) off an upset win by 10 points or more as an underdog against opponent off 2 or more consecutive home wins
246-159 since 1997. ( 60.7% 81.1 units )
6-4 this year. ( 60.0% -1.5 units )
CBB E WASHINGTON at N ARIZONA
Play Against - Home favorites of 2 to 5.5 points vs. the first half line (N ARIZONA) after beating the spread by 18 or more points total in their last three games, a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) playing a losing team
89-45 since 1997. ( 66.4% 39.5 units )
1-0 this year. ( 100.0% 1.0 units )
CBB UTEP at MIDDLE TENN ST
Play On - Road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (UTEP) an average offensive team (67-74 PPG) against an average defensive team (67-74 PPG) after 15+ games, after scoring 30 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games
59-26 over the last 5 seasons. ( 69.4% 30.4 units )
4-1 this year. ( 80.0% 2.9 units )
CBB LOUISIANA TECH at TULANE
Play Against - Any team (TULANE) off an upset win by 10 points or more as an underdog against opponent off 2 or more consecutive home wins
246-159 since 1997. ( 60.7% 81.1 units )
6-4 this year. ( 60.0% -1.5 units )
CBB E WASHINGTON at N ARIZONA
Play Against - Home favorites of 2 to 5.5 points vs. the first half line (N ARIZONA) after beating the spread by 18 or more points total in their last three games, a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) playing a losing team
89-45 since 1997. ( 66.4% 39.5 units )
1-0 this year. ( 100.0% 1.0 units )
STATSYSTEMS SPORTS STAT/SHEETS, 1/16/14
NATIONAL BASKETBALL ASSOCIATION
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
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***** Thursday, 1/16/14 NBA Information *****
(ALL RESULTS ATS) - Against The Spread - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Each and every day during the 2013-14 National Basketball Association season we will analyze all of your daily basketball action, featuring all our Highly-Rated (Situational & Match-up) Power Trends, along with some of our Situational Analysis (Betting Systems) that pertain to some of that days match-ups.
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•Hot Teams
-- Atlanta won seven of its last eight games. Nets won five of their last six games.
-- Knicks/Pacers both won five of their last six games.
-- Rockets won five of last six games, but their starters played a ton last in tough win at New Orleans.
•Cold Teams
-- Thunder lost three of their last four games.
•Totals
-- Six of last seven Atlanta games stayed under.
-- Six of last seven New York games stayed under.
-- Six of last seven Rocket-Thunder games stayed under.
•Series Records
-- Nets won three of last four games with Atlanta.
-- Knicks lost four of last five games with Indiana.
-- Rockets lost four of last five visits to Oklahoma, with three of four losses by 22+ points.
•Situational Trends of The Day
-- HOUSTON is 9-29 ATS (-22.9 Units) in home games when playing their 5th game in 7 days since 1996.
The average score was HOUSTON 97.4, OPPONENT 97.3.
-- INDIANA is 12-2 UNDER (+9.8 Units) in home games after a non-conference game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was INDIANA 93.1, OPPONENT 87.3.
-- NEW YORK is 21-7 (+13.3 Units) against the 1rst half line revenging a loss where opponent scored 100 or more points over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was NEW YORK 49.7, OPPONENT 47.7.
-- BROOKLYN is 10-0 OVER (+10.0 Units) the 1rst half total after 5 straight games - allowing a shooting pct. of 42% or less over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was BROOKLYN 53.6, OPPONENT 54.3.
-- SCOTT BROOKS is 36-17 OVER (+17.1 Units) in road games after playing a game as a road underdog as the coach of OKLAHOMA CITY.
The average score was BROOKS 102.8, OPPONENT 104.1.
•Matchup Trends of The Day
-- INDIANA is 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) versus poor rebounding teams - outrebounded by opponents by 3+ per game this season.
The average score was INDIANA 98.6, OPPONENT 85.7.
-- ATLANTA is 32-18 UNDER (+12.2 Units) versus good free throw shooting teams - making >=76% of their attempts over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was ATLANTA 95.7, OPPONENT 96.6.
-- OKLAHOMA CITY is 52-33 (+15.7 Units) against the 1rst half line versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing <=14 turnovers/game over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was OKLAHOMA CITY 54.2, OPPONENT 47.9.
-- INDIANA is 15-2 UNDER (+12.8 Units) the 1rst half total versus good free throw shooting teams - making >=76% of their attempts this season.
The average score was INDIANA 43.9, OPPONENT 44.8.
-- KEVIN MCHALE is 18-31 (-33.5 Units) against the money line in home games versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game in all games he has coached since 1996.
The average score was MCHALE 103.8, OPPONENT 105.8.
•Situation Analysis of The Day
-- Play Against - Home teams of 10 or more points (INDIANA) - top caliber team - outscoring their opponents by 9+ points/game against opponent after allowing 105 points or more.
(32-6 over the last 5 seasons.) (84.2%, +25.4 units. Rating = 4*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is : (11-27 over the last 5 seasons.)
The average line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 11.1
The average score in these games was: Team 96, Opponent 100.6 (Average point differential = -4.6)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 19 (51.4% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (4-2).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (15-5).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (81-60).
-- Play Under - All teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 (HOUSTON) - explosive offensive team - scoring 103+ points/game on the season against opponent after allowing 90 points or less 2 straight games.
(32-8 over the last 5 seasons.) (80.0%, +23.2 units. Rating = 3*)
The average total posted in these games was: 204.7
The average score in these games was: Team 98.9, Opponent 97.2 (Total points scored = 196.1)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 25 (64.1% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (3-1).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (7-3).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (76-49).
-- Play Against - Road teams where the 1rst half line is +1.5 to -1.5 (OKLAHOMA CITY) - average defensive team (92-98 PPG) against a poor defensive team (98-102 PPG), after a close loss by 3 points or less.
(41-9 since 1996.) (82.0%, +31.1 units. Rating = 4*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 0.3
The average first half score in these games was: Team 51.9, Opponent 48.4 (Average first half point differential = +3.5)
The situation's record this season is: (2-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (6-1).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (12-1).
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Thursday's Match-ups
#501 BROOKLYN vs. #502 ATLANTA
(TV: 3:00 PM EST, NBATV, YES Brooklyn, SportSouth Atlanta - Line: Nets -1.5, Total: 191.5) - The sightseeing in London will conclude and the game takes center stage on Thursday when the Brooklyn Nets face the Atlanta Hawks at The O2. The 19,000-seat venue has long been sold out and the Nets are finally playing solid basketball and rolled off five straight wins before falling to the Toronto Raptors on Saturday. The Hawks have hit a rough patch with four losses in six games and will serve as the home team.
The NBA continues to cultivate its presence in London with its fourth regular-season game held in the city but Brooklyn forward Andrei Kirilenko told reporters he doesn’t foresee a time when the league expands to London. “I don’t think it’s realistic only because of the traveling,” said Kirilenko, who is from Russia. “Maybe if it’s going to be a whole division, like the Euroleague is a division for the NBA like the West or Eastern Conference – so once a year you go to another continent and play three games there and then come back and adjust, maybe it’s going to work. But it’s definitely not going to work coming to London and then coming back. It’s physically impossible.”
•ABOUT THE NETS (15-22 SU, 17-20-0 ATS): Guard Joe Johnson had 23 points when Brooklyn beat the Hawks on Jan. 6 and would like to have another solid outing against his former club. Johnson averaged 27.3 points over a three-game span before dropping to 11 in the loss to Toronto. Johnson is two 3-pointers away from becoming the 20th player in NBA history to reach 1,500 for his career and feels Brooklyn is finally in rhythm as a team. “We’ve kind of figured out some minor things and to roll with what we’ve got,” Johnson told reporters. “And we’ve been doing a pretty good job of guys helping one another on both ends of the floor.”
•ABOUT THE HAWKS (20-18 SU, 21-17-0 ATS): Atlanta’s offensive prowess has diminished since losing center Al Horford to a season-ending injury and the squad has failed to reach 100 points in five of the last seven games. The recent loss to the Nets was a prime example as the Hawks scored just 34 second-half points on 11-of-31 shooting. Power forward Paul Millsap appears to be on his game with his first back-to-back 20-point outings of the season. Millsap suffered through a 1-of-10 shooting performance (for four points) in a loss to the Indiana Pacers before rebounding with the two strong efforts.
•PREGAME NOTES: Brooklyn has won three of the past four meetings, including a 91-86 home victory earlier this month.... Hawks SF Kyle Korver has extended his record streak of consecutive games with at least one 3-pointer to 107.... Nets PG Deron Williams (ankle) didn’t make the trip to London and will miss his 16th game of the season.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, ATLANTA covered the spread 606 times, while BROOKLYN covered the spread 394 times. *EDGE against the spread =ATLANTA. In 1000 simulated games, ATLANTA won the game straight up 561 times, while BROOKLYN won 418 times. In 1000 simulated games, 638 games went over the total, while 362 games went under the total. *EDGE against the total =OVER.
--In 1000 simulated games, ATLANTA covered the first half line 558 times, while BROOKLYN covered the first half line 394 times. *EDGE against first half line =ATLANTA. In 1000 simulated games, 600 games went over first half total, while 400 games went under first half total. *EDGE against first half total =OVER.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--BROOKLYN is 32-27 against the spread versus ATLANTA since 1996.
--BROOKLYN is 35-28 straight up against ATLANTA since 1996.
--31 of 57 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1996.
--ATLANTA is 34-24 versus the first half line when playing against BROOKLYN since 1996.
--37 of 56 games in this series have gone UNDER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1996.
•RECENT TRENDS
--Nets are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games.
--Nets are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
--Nets are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
--Hawks are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games playing on 3 or more days rest.
--Under is 4-0 in Hawks last 4 games following a S.U. loss.
--Over is 5-0 in Hawks last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
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#503 NEW YORK @ #504 INDIANA
(TV: 7:00 PM EST, TNT, MSG New York - Line: Pacers -10, Total: 184.5) - The Indiana Pacers are seemingly invincible at home, where they'll try for their ninth straight victory when the New York Knicks visit Thursday. The Pacers' 19-1 home mark is a big reason why they own the NBA's best record, and they're coming off a 116-92 pasting of visiting Sacramento on Tuesday. The Knicks had a season-best five-game winning streak snapped with a 108-98 loss at Charlotte on Tuesday and dropped a half-game out of eighth place in the Eastern Conference.
Indiana is the top defensive team in the league, and the Pacers are especially stingy at Bankers Life Fieldhouse, where they allow just 83 points per game and hold opponents to 38.9 percent shooting. "It's a different story when you come to play here," Pacers star Paul George told reporters. "Whatever you've done previously, when a team comes in hot, we make that commitment that it's going to be tough to play here." The Knicks have not lost a season series to the Pacers since Indiana swept four games in 2007-08, but the Pacers won the first game of this season's three-game series 103-96 in overtime Nov. 20 in New York.
•ABOUT THE KNICKS (15-23 SU, 16-22-0 ATS): New York's hot streak has come amid turmoil between coach Mike Woodson and enigmatic swingman J.R. Smith, who was benched for the second time in four games against the Bobcats. Smith (11.4 points) is one of only four players who average double-digit scoring for the Knicks. The Knicks got big man Tyson Chandler back against Charlotte after he missed the previous four games with bronchitis, but he didn't make much of an impact with five points and four rebounds in 16 minutes, and they're still without guard Pablo Prigioni (toe) and forward Metta World Peace (knee).
•ABOUT THE PACERS (30-7 SU, 25-12-0 ATS): Indiana's league-best defense starts with defending the rim, as the Pacers allow an NBA-low 34.2 points per game in the paint and rank sixth in the league with 5.8 blocked shots per contest. The Pacers don't need to light up the scoreboard, but they're efficient and balanced on offense with all five starters averaging double-digit scoring and reserve Danny Granger (9.1 points) continuing to improve as he works his way back from injury. Indiana turned in one of its best offensive showings of the season against the Kings, shooting a season-high 54.9 percent and getting 31 points from leading scorer Paul George (22.8 points, 6.2 rebounds).
•PREGAME NOTES: Indiana has not allowed 100 or more points in its past 13 games and has done so only six times all season.... Knicks leading scorer Carmelo Anthony (26 points, 8.8 rebounds) tallied 30 points and 18 boards in the first meeting this season and averages 25.3 points in 26 career regular-season games against Indiana.... The Pacers are 20-0 when holding opponents under 90 points.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, INDIANA covered the spread 509 times, while NEW YORK covered the spread 459 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, INDIANA won the game straight up 755 times, while NEW YORK won 218 times. In 1000 simulated games, 607 games went over the total, while 393 games went under the total. *EDGE against the total =OVER.
--In 1000 simulated games, NEW YORK covered the first half line 484 times, while INDIANA covered the first half line 480 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, 535 games went over first half total, while 427 games went under first half total. *No EDGE.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--INDIANA is 49-36 against the spread versus NEW YORK since 1996.
--INDIANA is 50-36 straight up against NEW YORK since 1996.
--44 of 86 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1996.
--INDIANA is 44-39 versus the first half line when playing against NEW YORK since 1996.
--43 of 83 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1996.
--Knicks are 1-4 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
--Knicks are 0-4 ATS in the last 4 meetings in Indiana.
--Favorite is 6-0 ATS in the last 6 meetings.
--Home team is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--Knicks are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.
--Under is 6-0 in Knicks last 6 games playing on 1 days rest.
--Under is 5-0 in Knicks last 5 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.
--Pacers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
--Under is 4-0 in Pacers last 4 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.
--Under is 4-0 in Pacers last 4 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.
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#505 OKLAHOMA CITY @ #506 HOUSTON
(TV: 10:30 PM EST, TNT - Line: Rockets -3, Total: 206) - The Houston Rockets finished up a four-game road trip with three straight wins but will get little time to pat themselves on the back when they return home to host the Oklahoma City Thunder on the second night of a back-to-back Thursday. James Harden played the hero with eight points in the final three minutes of a 103-100 victory at New Orleans but is not always at his best against his former team. The Thunder are losers of three of four.
Oklahoma City is having a hard time without Russell Westbrook and is averaging 94.3 points in the last four games - more than 10 below its season mark. Kevin Durant is putting up an average of 37 points in that span but is getting little help. Harden is finding help up and down the Rockets roster of late with Terrence Jones and Chandler Parsons stepping up to join Harden, Dwight Howard and Jeremy Lin as a formidable offensive and defensive unit.
•ABOUT THE THUNDER (28-10 SU, 20-18-0 ATS): Oklahoma City won its first two after Westbrook went down with another knee surgery but has since dropped five of eight, including its last three on the road. Durant went 15-of-28 from the floor in Tuesday’s 90-87 loss at Memphis but passed up the last shot and instead fired a pass to Serge Ibaka, who missed a 3-pointer. “That’s the thing I love about (Durant),” coach Scott Brooks told reporters. “He makes the right play. He can force a shot, but that wasn’t the right play.”
•ABOUT THE ROCKETS (26-14 SU, 20-18-2 ATS): Harden’s late-game offense was the key to overcoming a 17-point deficit at New Orleans on Wednesday, but defensive plays by Howard and Jones underneath were what set that offense up. Jones scored a career-high 25 points on Wednesday but also blocked six shots and has recorded 12 blocks in the last three games. The second-year forward has seen his minutes stay steady over the past two games even with Parsons back from a hamstring injury as Houston experimented with some bigger lineups.
•PREGAME NOTES: Harden was held to eight points on 2-of-9 shooting in a 117-86 loss at Oklahoma City on Dec. 29 and is averaging 24 points on 41 percent shooting in four career regular-season games against his original franchise.... Durant is just 6-for-30 from 3-point range in the last five games.... Houston G Aaron Brooks (knee) sat out Wednesday and is questionable for Thursday.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, OKLAHOMA CITY covered the spread 605 times, while HOUSTON covered the spread 368 times. *EDGE against the spread =OKLAHOMA CITY. In 1000 simulated games, OKLAHOMA CITY won the game straight up 528 times, while HOUSTON won 453 times. In 1000 simulated games, 600 games went under the total, while 371 games went over the total. *EDGE against the total =UNDER.
--In 1000 simulated games, OKLAHOMA CITY covered the first half line 572 times, while HOUSTON covered the first half line 428 times. *EDGE against first half line =OKLAHOMA CITY. In 1000 simulated games, 606 games went under first half total, while 394 games went over first half total. *EDGE against first half total =UNDER.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--HOUSTON is 38-36 against the spread versus OKLAHOMA CITY since 1996.
--HOUSTON is 43-35 straight up against OKLAHOMA CITY since 1996.
--42 of 78 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1996.
--OKLAHOMA CITY is 41-36 versus the first half line when playing against HOUSTON since 1996.
--40 of 78 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1996.
--Under is 6-1 in the last 7 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--Thunder are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
--Thunder are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.
--Under is 6-1 in Thunder last 7 vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.
--Under is 6-1 in Rockets last 7 vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.
--Under is 6-1 in Rockets last 7 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
--Under is 7-1-1 in Rockets last 9 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.
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NATIONAL BASKETBALL ASSOCIATION
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
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***** Thursday, 1/16/14 NBA Information *****
(ALL RESULTS ATS) - Against The Spread - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Each and every day during the 2013-14 National Basketball Association season we will analyze all of your daily basketball action, featuring all our Highly-Rated (Situational & Match-up) Power Trends, along with some of our Situational Analysis (Betting Systems) that pertain to some of that days match-ups.
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•Hot Teams
-- Atlanta won seven of its last eight games. Nets won five of their last six games.
-- Knicks/Pacers both won five of their last six games.
-- Rockets won five of last six games, but their starters played a ton last in tough win at New Orleans.
•Cold Teams
-- Thunder lost three of their last four games.
•Totals
-- Six of last seven Atlanta games stayed under.
-- Six of last seven New York games stayed under.
-- Six of last seven Rocket-Thunder games stayed under.
•Series Records
-- Nets won three of last four games with Atlanta.
-- Knicks lost four of last five games with Indiana.
-- Rockets lost four of last five visits to Oklahoma, with three of four losses by 22+ points.
•Situational Trends of The Day
-- HOUSTON is 9-29 ATS (-22.9 Units) in home games when playing their 5th game in 7 days since 1996.
The average score was HOUSTON 97.4, OPPONENT 97.3.
-- INDIANA is 12-2 UNDER (+9.8 Units) in home games after a non-conference game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was INDIANA 93.1, OPPONENT 87.3.
-- NEW YORK is 21-7 (+13.3 Units) against the 1rst half line revenging a loss where opponent scored 100 or more points over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was NEW YORK 49.7, OPPONENT 47.7.
-- BROOKLYN is 10-0 OVER (+10.0 Units) the 1rst half total after 5 straight games - allowing a shooting pct. of 42% or less over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was BROOKLYN 53.6, OPPONENT 54.3.
-- SCOTT BROOKS is 36-17 OVER (+17.1 Units) in road games after playing a game as a road underdog as the coach of OKLAHOMA CITY.
The average score was BROOKS 102.8, OPPONENT 104.1.
•Matchup Trends of The Day
-- INDIANA is 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) versus poor rebounding teams - outrebounded by opponents by 3+ per game this season.
The average score was INDIANA 98.6, OPPONENT 85.7.
-- ATLANTA is 32-18 UNDER (+12.2 Units) versus good free throw shooting teams - making >=76% of their attempts over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was ATLANTA 95.7, OPPONENT 96.6.
-- OKLAHOMA CITY is 52-33 (+15.7 Units) against the 1rst half line versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing <=14 turnovers/game over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was OKLAHOMA CITY 54.2, OPPONENT 47.9.
-- INDIANA is 15-2 UNDER (+12.8 Units) the 1rst half total versus good free throw shooting teams - making >=76% of their attempts this season.
The average score was INDIANA 43.9, OPPONENT 44.8.
-- KEVIN MCHALE is 18-31 (-33.5 Units) against the money line in home games versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game in all games he has coached since 1996.
The average score was MCHALE 103.8, OPPONENT 105.8.
•Situation Analysis of The Day
-- Play Against - Home teams of 10 or more points (INDIANA) - top caliber team - outscoring their opponents by 9+ points/game against opponent after allowing 105 points or more.
(32-6 over the last 5 seasons.) (84.2%, +25.4 units. Rating = 4*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is : (11-27 over the last 5 seasons.)
The average line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 11.1
The average score in these games was: Team 96, Opponent 100.6 (Average point differential = -4.6)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 19 (51.4% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (4-2).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (15-5).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (81-60).
-- Play Under - All teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 (HOUSTON) - explosive offensive team - scoring 103+ points/game on the season against opponent after allowing 90 points or less 2 straight games.
(32-8 over the last 5 seasons.) (80.0%, +23.2 units. Rating = 3*)
The average total posted in these games was: 204.7
The average score in these games was: Team 98.9, Opponent 97.2 (Total points scored = 196.1)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 25 (64.1% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (3-1).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (7-3).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (76-49).
-- Play Against - Road teams where the 1rst half line is +1.5 to -1.5 (OKLAHOMA CITY) - average defensive team (92-98 PPG) against a poor defensive team (98-102 PPG), after a close loss by 3 points or less.
(41-9 since 1996.) (82.0%, +31.1 units. Rating = 4*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 0.3
The average first half score in these games was: Team 51.9, Opponent 48.4 (Average first half point differential = +3.5)
The situation's record this season is: (2-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (6-1).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (12-1).
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Thursday's Match-ups
#501 BROOKLYN vs. #502 ATLANTA
(TV: 3:00 PM EST, NBATV, YES Brooklyn, SportSouth Atlanta - Line: Nets -1.5, Total: 191.5) - The sightseeing in London will conclude and the game takes center stage on Thursday when the Brooklyn Nets face the Atlanta Hawks at The O2. The 19,000-seat venue has long been sold out and the Nets are finally playing solid basketball and rolled off five straight wins before falling to the Toronto Raptors on Saturday. The Hawks have hit a rough patch with four losses in six games and will serve as the home team.
The NBA continues to cultivate its presence in London with its fourth regular-season game held in the city but Brooklyn forward Andrei Kirilenko told reporters he doesn’t foresee a time when the league expands to London. “I don’t think it’s realistic only because of the traveling,” said Kirilenko, who is from Russia. “Maybe if it’s going to be a whole division, like the Euroleague is a division for the NBA like the West or Eastern Conference – so once a year you go to another continent and play three games there and then come back and adjust, maybe it’s going to work. But it’s definitely not going to work coming to London and then coming back. It’s physically impossible.”
•ABOUT THE NETS (15-22 SU, 17-20-0 ATS): Guard Joe Johnson had 23 points when Brooklyn beat the Hawks on Jan. 6 and would like to have another solid outing against his former club. Johnson averaged 27.3 points over a three-game span before dropping to 11 in the loss to Toronto. Johnson is two 3-pointers away from becoming the 20th player in NBA history to reach 1,500 for his career and feels Brooklyn is finally in rhythm as a team. “We’ve kind of figured out some minor things and to roll with what we’ve got,” Johnson told reporters. “And we’ve been doing a pretty good job of guys helping one another on both ends of the floor.”
•ABOUT THE HAWKS (20-18 SU, 21-17-0 ATS): Atlanta’s offensive prowess has diminished since losing center Al Horford to a season-ending injury and the squad has failed to reach 100 points in five of the last seven games. The recent loss to the Nets was a prime example as the Hawks scored just 34 second-half points on 11-of-31 shooting. Power forward Paul Millsap appears to be on his game with his first back-to-back 20-point outings of the season. Millsap suffered through a 1-of-10 shooting performance (for four points) in a loss to the Indiana Pacers before rebounding with the two strong efforts.
•PREGAME NOTES: Brooklyn has won three of the past four meetings, including a 91-86 home victory earlier this month.... Hawks SF Kyle Korver has extended his record streak of consecutive games with at least one 3-pointer to 107.... Nets PG Deron Williams (ankle) didn’t make the trip to London and will miss his 16th game of the season.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, ATLANTA covered the spread 606 times, while BROOKLYN covered the spread 394 times. *EDGE against the spread =ATLANTA. In 1000 simulated games, ATLANTA won the game straight up 561 times, while BROOKLYN won 418 times. In 1000 simulated games, 638 games went over the total, while 362 games went under the total. *EDGE against the total =OVER.
--In 1000 simulated games, ATLANTA covered the first half line 558 times, while BROOKLYN covered the first half line 394 times. *EDGE against first half line =ATLANTA. In 1000 simulated games, 600 games went over first half total, while 400 games went under first half total. *EDGE against first half total =OVER.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--BROOKLYN is 32-27 against the spread versus ATLANTA since 1996.
--BROOKLYN is 35-28 straight up against ATLANTA since 1996.
--31 of 57 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1996.
--ATLANTA is 34-24 versus the first half line when playing against BROOKLYN since 1996.
--37 of 56 games in this series have gone UNDER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1996.
•RECENT TRENDS
--Nets are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games.
--Nets are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
--Nets are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
--Hawks are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games playing on 3 or more days rest.
--Under is 4-0 in Hawks last 4 games following a S.U. loss.
--Over is 5-0 in Hawks last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
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#503 NEW YORK @ #504 INDIANA
(TV: 7:00 PM EST, TNT, MSG New York - Line: Pacers -10, Total: 184.5) - The Indiana Pacers are seemingly invincible at home, where they'll try for their ninth straight victory when the New York Knicks visit Thursday. The Pacers' 19-1 home mark is a big reason why they own the NBA's best record, and they're coming off a 116-92 pasting of visiting Sacramento on Tuesday. The Knicks had a season-best five-game winning streak snapped with a 108-98 loss at Charlotte on Tuesday and dropped a half-game out of eighth place in the Eastern Conference.
Indiana is the top defensive team in the league, and the Pacers are especially stingy at Bankers Life Fieldhouse, where they allow just 83 points per game and hold opponents to 38.9 percent shooting. "It's a different story when you come to play here," Pacers star Paul George told reporters. "Whatever you've done previously, when a team comes in hot, we make that commitment that it's going to be tough to play here." The Knicks have not lost a season series to the Pacers since Indiana swept four games in 2007-08, but the Pacers won the first game of this season's three-game series 103-96 in overtime Nov. 20 in New York.
•ABOUT THE KNICKS (15-23 SU, 16-22-0 ATS): New York's hot streak has come amid turmoil between coach Mike Woodson and enigmatic swingman J.R. Smith, who was benched for the second time in four games against the Bobcats. Smith (11.4 points) is one of only four players who average double-digit scoring for the Knicks. The Knicks got big man Tyson Chandler back against Charlotte after he missed the previous four games with bronchitis, but he didn't make much of an impact with five points and four rebounds in 16 minutes, and they're still without guard Pablo Prigioni (toe) and forward Metta World Peace (knee).
•ABOUT THE PACERS (30-7 SU, 25-12-0 ATS): Indiana's league-best defense starts with defending the rim, as the Pacers allow an NBA-low 34.2 points per game in the paint and rank sixth in the league with 5.8 blocked shots per contest. The Pacers don't need to light up the scoreboard, but they're efficient and balanced on offense with all five starters averaging double-digit scoring and reserve Danny Granger (9.1 points) continuing to improve as he works his way back from injury. Indiana turned in one of its best offensive showings of the season against the Kings, shooting a season-high 54.9 percent and getting 31 points from leading scorer Paul George (22.8 points, 6.2 rebounds).
•PREGAME NOTES: Indiana has not allowed 100 or more points in its past 13 games and has done so only six times all season.... Knicks leading scorer Carmelo Anthony (26 points, 8.8 rebounds) tallied 30 points and 18 boards in the first meeting this season and averages 25.3 points in 26 career regular-season games against Indiana.... The Pacers are 20-0 when holding opponents under 90 points.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, INDIANA covered the spread 509 times, while NEW YORK covered the spread 459 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, INDIANA won the game straight up 755 times, while NEW YORK won 218 times. In 1000 simulated games, 607 games went over the total, while 393 games went under the total. *EDGE against the total =OVER.
--In 1000 simulated games, NEW YORK covered the first half line 484 times, while INDIANA covered the first half line 480 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, 535 games went over first half total, while 427 games went under first half total. *No EDGE.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--INDIANA is 49-36 against the spread versus NEW YORK since 1996.
--INDIANA is 50-36 straight up against NEW YORK since 1996.
--44 of 86 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1996.
--INDIANA is 44-39 versus the first half line when playing against NEW YORK since 1996.
--43 of 83 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1996.
--Knicks are 1-4 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
--Knicks are 0-4 ATS in the last 4 meetings in Indiana.
--Favorite is 6-0 ATS in the last 6 meetings.
--Home team is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--Knicks are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.
--Under is 6-0 in Knicks last 6 games playing on 1 days rest.
--Under is 5-0 in Knicks last 5 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.
--Pacers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
--Under is 4-0 in Pacers last 4 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.
--Under is 4-0 in Pacers last 4 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.
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#505 OKLAHOMA CITY @ #506 HOUSTON
(TV: 10:30 PM EST, TNT - Line: Rockets -3, Total: 206) - The Houston Rockets finished up a four-game road trip with three straight wins but will get little time to pat themselves on the back when they return home to host the Oklahoma City Thunder on the second night of a back-to-back Thursday. James Harden played the hero with eight points in the final three minutes of a 103-100 victory at New Orleans but is not always at his best against his former team. The Thunder are losers of three of four.
Oklahoma City is having a hard time without Russell Westbrook and is averaging 94.3 points in the last four games - more than 10 below its season mark. Kevin Durant is putting up an average of 37 points in that span but is getting little help. Harden is finding help up and down the Rockets roster of late with Terrence Jones and Chandler Parsons stepping up to join Harden, Dwight Howard and Jeremy Lin as a formidable offensive and defensive unit.
•ABOUT THE THUNDER (28-10 SU, 20-18-0 ATS): Oklahoma City won its first two after Westbrook went down with another knee surgery but has since dropped five of eight, including its last three on the road. Durant went 15-of-28 from the floor in Tuesday’s 90-87 loss at Memphis but passed up the last shot and instead fired a pass to Serge Ibaka, who missed a 3-pointer. “That’s the thing I love about (Durant),” coach Scott Brooks told reporters. “He makes the right play. He can force a shot, but that wasn’t the right play.”
•ABOUT THE ROCKETS (26-14 SU, 20-18-2 ATS): Harden’s late-game offense was the key to overcoming a 17-point deficit at New Orleans on Wednesday, but defensive plays by Howard and Jones underneath were what set that offense up. Jones scored a career-high 25 points on Wednesday but also blocked six shots and has recorded 12 blocks in the last three games. The second-year forward has seen his minutes stay steady over the past two games even with Parsons back from a hamstring injury as Houston experimented with some bigger lineups.
•PREGAME NOTES: Harden was held to eight points on 2-of-9 shooting in a 117-86 loss at Oklahoma City on Dec. 29 and is averaging 24 points on 41 percent shooting in four career regular-season games against his original franchise.... Durant is just 6-for-30 from 3-point range in the last five games.... Houston G Aaron Brooks (knee) sat out Wednesday and is questionable for Thursday.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, OKLAHOMA CITY covered the spread 605 times, while HOUSTON covered the spread 368 times. *EDGE against the spread =OKLAHOMA CITY. In 1000 simulated games, OKLAHOMA CITY won the game straight up 528 times, while HOUSTON won 453 times. In 1000 simulated games, 600 games went under the total, while 371 games went over the total. *EDGE against the total =UNDER.
--In 1000 simulated games, OKLAHOMA CITY covered the first half line 572 times, while HOUSTON covered the first half line 428 times. *EDGE against first half line =OKLAHOMA CITY. In 1000 simulated games, 606 games went under first half total, while 394 games went over first half total. *EDGE against first half total =UNDER.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--HOUSTON is 38-36 against the spread versus OKLAHOMA CITY since 1996.
--HOUSTON is 43-35 straight up against OKLAHOMA CITY since 1996.
--42 of 78 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1996.
--OKLAHOMA CITY is 41-36 versus the first half line when playing against HOUSTON since 1996.
--40 of 78 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1996.
--Under is 6-1 in the last 7 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--Thunder are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
--Thunder are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.
--Under is 6-1 in Thunder last 7 vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.
--Under is 6-1 in Rockets last 7 vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.
--Under is 6-1 in Rockets last 7 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
--Under is 7-1-1 in Rockets last 9 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.
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NCAA Basketball Play of the Day January 16, 2014 6:45 AM by GT Staff
BYU at San Francisco at 6:00 p.m. PST
Not a good spot for BYU here coming off a huge win at home over Loyola Marymount 91-68. They now hit the road to San Fran and the last four times they played a game after Marymount they did not cover and the last four times they have played San Fran they did not cover and our Parry’s NCAA Basketball Power Guide has this game a pick ‘em.
546 San Francisco +3
Results
2013-14 NCAA BK (0-0-0) Overall Record: 9-1-1
BYU at San Francisco at 6:00 p.m. PST
Not a good spot for BYU here coming off a huge win at home over Loyola Marymount 91-68. They now hit the road to San Fran and the last four times they played a game after Marymount they did not cover and the last four times they have played San Fran they did not cover and our Parry’s NCAA Basketball Power Guide has this game a pick ‘em.
546 San Francisco +3
Results
2013-14 NCAA BK (0-0-0) Overall Record: 9-1-1
Daily wager with Weekend Warrior January 16, 2014 7:13 AM by Mark Mayer
NCAA Basketball
509 Houston +19: The largest margin the Cougars have lost a game this season is 17 to Texas A&M and come off a tough 1-point defeat to Cincinnati. Louisville should win, but by less than this line.
Results 2013-14 NBA (0-0-0) Overall Record: 16-11-0
NCAA Basketball
509 Houston +19: The largest margin the Cougars have lost a game this season is 17 to Texas A&M and come off a tough 1-point defeat to Cincinnati. Louisville should win, but by less than this line.
Results 2013-14 NBA (0-0-0) Overall Record: 16-11-0
GamingToday's Consensus Picks January 16, 2014 6:22 AM by GT Staff
NBA Basketball
506 Houston Rockets -2½: We have several things that favor the Rockets at home in this game against the Thunder, first of all Parry’s NBA Basketball Power Guide has them eight points better in this spot and second the Rockets are looking for revenge from the huge loss to the Thunder in their last meeting.
502 Atlanta Hawks +2: We will stick with Parry’s NBA Basketball Power Guide in this game as it has the Hawks six points better at home over the visiting Nets.
Results 2013-14 NBA (1-0-0) Overall Record: 52-36-4
NCAA Basketball
547 Arizona State +11½: We find ourselves in a must take situation in this battle between to rivals as State who is in revenge mood catches Arizona off of two tough road games.
554 Pepperdine +9: Parry’s NCAA Basketball Power Guide has the road team Gonzaga just a one point favorite at Pepperdine, we will take the nine points.
538 Colorado +2: UCLA not the same team on the road as they are at home as they have gone 2-2 SU and ATS while the Buffs have gone 11-1 SU at home.
Results
2013-14 NCAA BK (2-1-0) Overall Record: 41-42-1
NBA Basketball
506 Houston Rockets -2½: We have several things that favor the Rockets at home in this game against the Thunder, first of all Parry’s NBA Basketball Power Guide has them eight points better in this spot and second the Rockets are looking for revenge from the huge loss to the Thunder in their last meeting.
502 Atlanta Hawks +2: We will stick with Parry’s NBA Basketball Power Guide in this game as it has the Hawks six points better at home over the visiting Nets.
Results 2013-14 NBA (1-0-0) Overall Record: 52-36-4
NCAA Basketball
547 Arizona State +11½: We find ourselves in a must take situation in this battle between to rivals as State who is in revenge mood catches Arizona off of two tough road games.
554 Pepperdine +9: Parry’s NCAA Basketball Power Guide has the road team Gonzaga just a one point favorite at Pepperdine, we will take the nine points.
538 Colorado +2: UCLA not the same team on the road as they are at home as they have gone 2-2 SU and ATS while the Buffs have gone 11-1 SU at home.
Results
2013-14 NCAA BK (2-1-0) Overall Record: 41-42-1
Ecks and Bacon
Ben lee lost by 1 point again in college basketball on Wednesday with Wake Forest -2/North Carolina State.
E&B are sticking with college hoops for Thursday and like Arizona -11/Arizona State.
Ecks and Bacon is 0-2 -$110 for Week Twelve and 42-51-2 -$1281.
All E&B selections will be for $50 unless noted
Ben lee lost by 1 point again in college basketball on Wednesday with Wake Forest -2/North Carolina State.
E&B are sticking with college hoops for Thursday and like Arizona -11/Arizona State.
Ecks and Bacon is 0-2 -$110 for Week Twelve and 42-51-2 -$1281.
All E&B selections will be for $50 unless noted
Today's NHL Picks
Los Angeles at St. Louis
The Blues host a Los Angeles team tonight that is 0-6 in its last 6 games against Central Division opponents. St. Louis is the pick (-145) according to Dunkel, which has the Blues favored by 2 1/2. Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-145). Here are all of today's picks.
Los Angeles at St. Louis
The Blues host a Los Angeles team tonight that is 0-6 in its last 6 games against Central Division opponents. St. Louis is the pick (-145) according to Dunkel, which has the Blues favored by 2 1/2. Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-145). Here are all of today's picks.
| THURSDAY, JANUARY 16 Time Posted: 9:00 a.m. EST |
| Game 1-2: Nashville at Philadelphia (7:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Nashville 11.072; Philadelphia 10.246 Dunkel Line & Total: Nashville by 1; 5 Vegas Line & Total: Philadelphia (-165); 5 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Nashville (+145); Under |
| Game 3-4: Detroit at NY Rangers (7:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 10.116; NY Rangers 12.185 Dunkel Line & Total: NY Rangers by 2; 6 Vegas Line & Total: NY Rangers (-160); 5 Dunkel Pick: NY Rangers (-160); Over |
| Game 5-6: Montreal at Ottawa (7:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Montreal 11.398; Ottawa 10.408 Dunkel Line & Total: Montreal by 1; 4 Vegas Line & Total: Ottawa (-130); 5 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Montreal (+110); Under |
| Game 7-8: NY Islanders at Tampa Bay (7:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: NY Islanders 11.470; Tampa Bay 12.899 Dunkel Line & Total: Tampa Bay by 1 1/2; 6 1/2 Vegas Line & Total: Tampa Bay (-165); 5 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (-165); Over |
| Game 9-10: San Jose at Florida (7:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: San Jose 11.461; Florida 12.336 Dunkel Line & Total: Florida by 1; 6 Vegas Line & Total: San Jose (-165); 5 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Florida (+145); Over |
| Game 11-12: Los Angeles at St. Louis (8:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Los Angeles 10.792; St. Louis 13.489 Dunkel Line & Total: St. Louis by 2 1/2; 4 Vegas Line & Total: St. Louis (-145); 5 Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-145); Under |
| Game 13-14: Edmonton at Minnesota (8:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Edmonton 11.273; Minnesota 10.112 Dunkel Line & Total: Edmonton by 1; 4 Vegas Line & Total: Minnesota (-160); 5 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Edmonton (+140); Under |
| Game 15-16: Boston at Dallas (8:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Boston 11.734; Dallas 9.725 Dunkel Line & Total: Boston by 2; 6 Vegas Line & Total: Boston (-120); 5 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Boston (-120); Over |
| Game 17-18: New Jersey at Colorado (9:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: New Jersey 10.652; Colorado 12.096 Dunkel Line & Total: Colorado by 1 1/2; 6 Vegas Line & Total: Colorado (-145); 5 Dunkel Pick: Colorado (-145); Over |
| Game 19-20: Vancouver at Phoenix (9:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Vancouver 11.506; Phoenix 9.839 Dunkel Line & Total: Vancouver by 1 1/2; 4 Vegas Line & Total: Phoenix (-130); 5 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Vancouver (+110); Under |
| Game 21-22: Winnipeg at Calgary (9:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Winnipeg 11.272; Calgary 10.271 Dunkel Line & Total: Winnipeg by 1; 6 Vegas Line & Total: Calgary (-115); 5 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Winnipeg (-105); Over |
NCAAB
Thursday, January 16
Georgia State won last seven games, with four of last five on road; they won first three Sun Belt games by 9-10-23 points, while protecting ball better than anyone in US (12.9% turnover rate), while forcing turnovers 21.9% of time. Arkansas State is 0-4 vs top 100 teams,; all losses were by 12+ points; Red Wolves make 39.4% of 3's, #26 in nation. Sun Belt home favorites are 4-10 vs spread.
Missouri made 11-21 from arc in 81-59 drubbing of Vanderbilt LY, first SEC series meeting; game was 49-20 at half. Tigers won its two games on road, by 4 at NC State, 2 at Auburn. Commodores lost three of last four games, losing at Alabama by 5, to Kentucky by 9 here in first two conference games. SEC home teams are 6-2-1 vs spread in games with spread of 5 or less points.
Memphis won five of last six games, but loss was to Cincinnati in only AAC home game; Tigers are shooting just 29.4% from arc, but they get turnovers 22.7% of time, leading to shorter possesions (0:15.8, #31 in US). UConn is 1-2 in true road games winning by 12 at Washington, but losing at Houston/SMU in AAC games. Huskies are making 41.4% on arc. AAC home favorites of 6+ points are 4-6 vs spread.
Colorado has horrible injury luck, losing star Dinwiddie for year, frosh Fletcher for six weeks; this will be emotional game for them after losing to UCLA by 13-3 points in first two Pac-12 meetings. UCLA lost by 9 at Missouri in only true road game, back on Dec 7; Bruins are shooting 41% from arc (#12 in US), 55% inside it, but they haven't left LA much. Pac-12 home dogs of less than 5 points are 4-3 vs spread.
Ohio State won its last six games with Minnesota, winning last two here by 13-10 points; Buckeyes lost last two games to Michigan State/Iowa after a 15-0 start- they split pair of road games, winning at Purdue by 9, losing in OT in East Lansing. Big Dozen home underdogs are 3-4, 0-3 if getting less than 4 points. Gophers split first four conference games- all four games were decided by 3 or less points, or in OT.
BYU won three of four WCC meetings with San Francisco, winning by 1-4 in its visits here; home team won all five of Cougars WCC games so far this year- BYU lost by 11 at LMU, 6 at Pepperdine, before winning last three games at home. USF is 4-2 in WCC with two OT wins- they got whacked at Gonzaga/St Mary's, but beat Pepperdine/LMU at home. WCC favorites are 8-3 if spread was five or less points.
Arizona won five of last six games with Arizona State, winning last three in Tucson by 11-17-15 points; Wildcats play great defense (#2 eFG% in US) and share ball well with McConnell at PG- they also rebound 41% of their own missed shots. Pac-12 double digit home favorites are 4-3 vs spread. ASU is 13-4 with three losses by 11+ points; Carson is terrific PG, but rest of team isn't athletic enough for this opponent.
Gonzaga won last 20 games with Pepperdine, but they had similar win streak vs Portland and lost to Pilots last week; Zags' last eight wins here were all by 10+ points. Waves are 4-2 in WCC, beating San Diego, BYU in only two road games. Zags won by 4 at West Virginia, lost at Portland in their only two true road games. WCC home underdogs are 3-2, 3-0 if they're getting 6+ points.
USC won two of first three Pac-12 games with Utah, winning here by 17 LY, then losing to Utes in Pac-12 tourney; Trojans lost first three games in league this year by 34-19-20 points- they're shooting 21.7% from arc, turning ball over 23.2% of time in league games. Pac-12 home favorites are 7-6, 4-3 if laying double digits. Utah is 1-3 in Pac-12 with all three losses by 3 or less points- they make 57.7% of 2's, #1 in country.
Long Beach State won last five games with UCSB, winning last three in Thunderdome by 16-23-7 points, but 49ers overscheduled again (played #2 schedule to this point), are just 3-11 vs D-I teams- they've played 10 top 100 teams already. Gauchos lost Big West opener at home by 8 to Cal Poly, but they also beat Cal in this gym and Cal is good- UCSB has made 38.6% from arc so far- they were 2-17 against Cal Poly.
Belmont beat Eastern Kentucky by 7-11 points in their first season in OVC; Bruins are 4-0 in OVC this year, with three wins by 11+ points and road wins by 13-15 at SE Missouri/UT-Martin. EKU are forcing turnovers 23.4% (#9) oif time; they're 2-2 in OVC, losing to Murray St. in OVC home opener. OVC home favorites of 3 or less points are 3-2 vs spread. Belmont's offensive eFG% of 58.0% is #2 in country.
North Dakota State hammered Neb-Omaha by 44-27 points LY; Bison are 3-1 at home vs D-I teams, losing to Southern Miss by point- they're making 56.9% of 2's but aren't great defensive team. Omaha is improved this year- they lost by 8 at Iowa, 3 at UNLV and beat Nevada in Reno; Mavericks force turnovers 20.8% of time, make 78.7% of free throws, #2 in country they also forcer turnovers 20.8% of time.
Fort Wayne is 4-4 on road, with all four wins vs teams ranked at #227 or lower; Mastodons make 38.9% of 3's (#32), won their first two Summit games over ND State/SD State, both at home. Fort Wayne is 1-3 vs teams ranked in top 150, beating North Dakota State last week. Denver runs Princeton offense, which can be tough to prepare for; they've lost four of last six games, with last three losses by 5 or less points or in OT.
Thursday, January 16
Georgia State won last seven games, with four of last five on road; they won first three Sun Belt games by 9-10-23 points, while protecting ball better than anyone in US (12.9% turnover rate), while forcing turnovers 21.9% of time. Arkansas State is 0-4 vs top 100 teams,; all losses were by 12+ points; Red Wolves make 39.4% of 3's, #26 in nation. Sun Belt home favorites are 4-10 vs spread.
Missouri made 11-21 from arc in 81-59 drubbing of Vanderbilt LY, first SEC series meeting; game was 49-20 at half. Tigers won its two games on road, by 4 at NC State, 2 at Auburn. Commodores lost three of last four games, losing at Alabama by 5, to Kentucky by 9 here in first two conference games. SEC home teams are 6-2-1 vs spread in games with spread of 5 or less points.
Memphis won five of last six games, but loss was to Cincinnati in only AAC home game; Tigers are shooting just 29.4% from arc, but they get turnovers 22.7% of time, leading to shorter possesions (0:15.8, #31 in US). UConn is 1-2 in true road games winning by 12 at Washington, but losing at Houston/SMU in AAC games. Huskies are making 41.4% on arc. AAC home favorites of 6+ points are 4-6 vs spread.
Colorado has horrible injury luck, losing star Dinwiddie for year, frosh Fletcher for six weeks; this will be emotional game for them after losing to UCLA by 13-3 points in first two Pac-12 meetings. UCLA lost by 9 at Missouri in only true road game, back on Dec 7; Bruins are shooting 41% from arc (#12 in US), 55% inside it, but they haven't left LA much. Pac-12 home dogs of less than 5 points are 4-3 vs spread.
Ohio State won its last six games with Minnesota, winning last two here by 13-10 points; Buckeyes lost last two games to Michigan State/Iowa after a 15-0 start- they split pair of road games, winning at Purdue by 9, losing in OT in East Lansing. Big Dozen home underdogs are 3-4, 0-3 if getting less than 4 points. Gophers split first four conference games- all four games were decided by 3 or less points, or in OT.
BYU won three of four WCC meetings with San Francisco, winning by 1-4 in its visits here; home team won all five of Cougars WCC games so far this year- BYU lost by 11 at LMU, 6 at Pepperdine, before winning last three games at home. USF is 4-2 in WCC with two OT wins- they got whacked at Gonzaga/St Mary's, but beat Pepperdine/LMU at home. WCC favorites are 8-3 if spread was five or less points.
Arizona won five of last six games with Arizona State, winning last three in Tucson by 11-17-15 points; Wildcats play great defense (#2 eFG% in US) and share ball well with McConnell at PG- they also rebound 41% of their own missed shots. Pac-12 double digit home favorites are 4-3 vs spread. ASU is 13-4 with three losses by 11+ points; Carson is terrific PG, but rest of team isn't athletic enough for this opponent.
Gonzaga won last 20 games with Pepperdine, but they had similar win streak vs Portland and lost to Pilots last week; Zags' last eight wins here were all by 10+ points. Waves are 4-2 in WCC, beating San Diego, BYU in only two road games. Zags won by 4 at West Virginia, lost at Portland in their only two true road games. WCC home underdogs are 3-2, 3-0 if they're getting 6+ points.
USC won two of first three Pac-12 games with Utah, winning here by 17 LY, then losing to Utes in Pac-12 tourney; Trojans lost first three games in league this year by 34-19-20 points- they're shooting 21.7% from arc, turning ball over 23.2% of time in league games. Pac-12 home favorites are 7-6, 4-3 if laying double digits. Utah is 1-3 in Pac-12 with all three losses by 3 or less points- they make 57.7% of 2's, #1 in country.
Long Beach State won last five games with UCSB, winning last three in Thunderdome by 16-23-7 points, but 49ers overscheduled again (played #2 schedule to this point), are just 3-11 vs D-I teams- they've played 10 top 100 teams already. Gauchos lost Big West opener at home by 8 to Cal Poly, but they also beat Cal in this gym and Cal is good- UCSB has made 38.6% from arc so far- they were 2-17 against Cal Poly.
Belmont beat Eastern Kentucky by 7-11 points in their first season in OVC; Bruins are 4-0 in OVC this year, with three wins by 11+ points and road wins by 13-15 at SE Missouri/UT-Martin. EKU are forcing turnovers 23.4% (#9) oif time; they're 2-2 in OVC, losing to Murray St. in OVC home opener. OVC home favorites of 3 or less points are 3-2 vs spread. Belmont's offensive eFG% of 58.0% is #2 in country.
North Dakota State hammered Neb-Omaha by 44-27 points LY; Bison are 3-1 at home vs D-I teams, losing to Southern Miss by point- they're making 56.9% of 2's but aren't great defensive team. Omaha is improved this year- they lost by 8 at Iowa, 3 at UNLV and beat Nevada in Reno; Mavericks force turnovers 20.8% of time, make 78.7% of free throws, #2 in country they also forcer turnovers 20.8% of time.
Fort Wayne is 4-4 on road, with all four wins vs teams ranked at #227 or lower; Mastodons make 38.9% of 3's (#32), won their first two Summit games over ND State/SD State, both at home. Fort Wayne is 1-3 vs teams ranked in top 150, beating North Dakota State last week. Denver runs Princeton offense, which can be tough to prepare for; they've lost four of last six games, with last three losses by 5 or less points or in OT.
