Oskeim Sports
Oregon (+4) (-110) over Boise State*
*The Ducks are a 2* investment at +3.5 or more (+4 at -125 odds or better) and become a Strong Opinion at +3 or less.
Oregon is a perfect 12-0 ATS as non-conference underdogs, 8-2 ATS on the road before consecutive home games and take the field with legitimate revenge after suffering a 37-32 upset loss at the hands of Boise State last season in Eugene. Moreover, the Ducks take the field with an outstanding offense that averaged an impressive 41.9 points per game last season, including 280 rushing yards (6.2 yards per rush attempt), 6.6 yards per play and 11.6 yards per point against teams that combined to allow just 4.2 yards per rush play, 5.2 yards per play and 13.7 yards per point. And, while I generally do not like investing on college teams with a new head coach, Oregon head coach Chip Kelly was the Ducks' offensive coordinator before taking over the reigns and has excellent knowledge of this team. I also like the fact that Oregon's offense excelled on the road last year where the Ducks averaged 40.3 points per game, including 6 yards per rush attempt, 6.3 yards per play and 11.8 yards per point. Let's also note that Boise State is a money-burning 1-10-1 ATS as favorites when allowing 27 or more points, which is a distinct possibility against the Ducks tonight.
Invest against - A home team (Boise State) - team with a great scoring defense last season - allowed 14 or less points per game, with an experienced quarterback returning as starter, in the first two weeks of the season.
(25-5 since 1992; 83.3%)
This system is a perfect 4-0 ATS since 2000, 13-3 ATS since 1997 and 25-5 ATS since 1992.
From a fundamental standpoint, the Ducks should have success running the ball against an inexperienced Boise State defensive line that lost 3 1/2 starters, and a depleted Broncos' linebacking corp. that lost two starters and one major contributor. Finally, Oregon applies to a very good 45-12-1 ATS Week One system of mine that invests on certain road underdogs of three or more points, provided they were .545 or better the previous season. With Oregon standing at a profitable 8-1 SU and 6-1 ATS versus non-conference opponents, take the Ducks and invest with confidence.
Technician's Corner: Pac-10 teams are a profitable 188-135 ATS as underdogs versus non-conference opponents, including a terrific 79-39 ATS when neither team is favored by more than seven points. Moreover, Oregon is 23-12 ATS as underdogs, including 9-1 ATS versus non-conference foes.
Rating: 2*
