Service Plays Thursday 09/03/09

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No Randizzle and his $900 / mo subscription picks?!

Don't tell me he won't allow them to be posted, since Rx got him most of his clients.
 
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Hondo

September 3, 2009

About nine more days like that and Hondo will be back in the black. Mr. Aitch somehow came up with a couple of winners last night, scoring with the Gi ants and Yankees to lower his debt to 920 darks.

Today, the darts landed on Robertson, Lincecum and Hanson -- 10 units apiece on the Tigers, Giants and Braves.
 
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Scott Ferrall

MLB FREE PICKS FOR THURSDAY
PICKS ARE IN ALL CAPS AND RANKED IN ORDER OF CONFIDENCE ( )


Mets (Misch)

COLORADO (MARQUIS) -245 (1)


Yankees (Gaudin)

TORONTO (ROMERO) +115 (2)


SAN FRANCISCO (LINCECUM) -125 (3)

Philadelphia (Martinez)


Run Totals

San Francisco / Philadelphia UNDER 8

Yankees / Toronto OVER 9 ½

Arizona / Angels OVER 9

Seattle / Oakland OVER 9 9/3/2009


NCAAF FREE PICKS FOR WEEK 1

Thursday

TROY -6 ½ (1)
Bowling Green
 
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MR EAST

MLB THURSDAY 5 UNIT BOMB

#961 CLEVELAND INDIANS @ #962 DETROIT TIGERS 1:05PM EDT

PLAY ON #961 CLEVELAND INDIANS @ DETROIT TIGERS OVER 9.5 -110 FOR 5 UNITS

The Cleveland Indians have been a terror against lefthand pitching, and the Tigers Nate Robertson is ripe to be had. The Indians are scoring 5.8 runs a game against lefthanders, while their starting pitcher, Fausto Carmona is struggling in a big way himself, entering here with an ERA of 6.20 on the season. To top that off, Cleveland is 36-14 to the over as a road dog, that is 72% to the over. They are also 10-1 to the over when Carmona starts with a total of 9-10.5, and 23-7 in his last 30 starts with the same posted total range, and 30 of his last 42 starts overall have resulted in games going over the total. Nate Robertson has pitched to the over to an 11-1 mark in his last 12 starts vs the AL Central. This one goes over the total.
 
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Bryan Leonard's NCAA Opening Night Gridiron Gold

135/136 North Texas at Ball State

A popular theory in handicapping the first week of the college football season is to back teams with a significant edge in returning starters. Our old friend Mike Lee who has since passed was the originator of this theory. Despite it's common thought process in these days the theory continues to make sense and money, especially if you jump on it early. While this game opened higher it's still a value at plus 17 or more as we expect this line to close in the 15 range.

North Texas returns 16 starters from a football team that won just once a season ago. But now coach Todd Dodge is in his key third year in the program and his son who also happens to be the signal caller has a firm grasp on it's intricacies. Riley Dodge grew up under his dad's tutelage as his father was a coaching legend in the high school ranks. Leading rusher Cam Montgomery from a season ago really came on at the end of the year to give this team a terrific run/pass combination.

Ball State had a breakout season a year ago under coach Brady Hoke but the losses are huge. Three year starting quarterback Nate Davis was drafted, four starting offensive linemen have departed as well as the top four receivers including Darius Hill who was outstanding. This team brings back just 11 starters and a completely new coaching staff as Hoke took advantage of the career year to go to San Diego State. His parallel move tells us all we need to know about this Cardinal program. Hoke knew the writing was on the wall as this Ball State team is in for a terrible fall this season. This now becomes a young team without any proven leaders. Not only must they win this game but they must do so by close to a three touchdown margin. The differences from the MAC and the Sun Belt are not nearly that large as we take advantage of new coach Stan Parrish and his young overrated squad in the season opener.

PLAY NORTH TEXAS
 
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Premium picks from Jimmy Boyd

College Football Premium Picks
NCAA-F | Sep 03 '09 (7:00p)
South Carolina vs NC State NC State
-5-109 at 5dimes
3* 2009 NCAAF Season Opener (ESPN) on N.C. State -5
This one has revenge written all over it for the Wolfpack after getting thumped 34-0 at South Carolina last season. I expect 1st-Team All-ACC QB Russell Wilson to be the difference maker. The Pack return plenty of fire power with wide receivers Owen Spencer and Jarvis Williams as well. This core group of guys gives NC State the edge against an S.C. team that lost a lot on both sides of the football. SC's defense carried the team last season and I don't expect it to be as good. While QB Stephen Garcia should be better, he has less to work with. Last season we saw the offense put up the worst numbers in the Spurrier era; 20.9 points per game, 94.1 rushing yards per game, 27 interceptions, and it could be worse this season. The Wolfpack are 7-0-1 ATS in their last 8 games overall and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games while the Gamecocks are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as an underdog. Lay the points.

-= TOP PLAY =-
NCAA-F | Sep 05 '09 (12:00p)
Akron vs Penn State Penn State
-26-108 at 5dimes
5* NCAAF Non-Conference GOTY on Penn State -26
The Nittany Lions dominated their non-conference schedule last season and I fully expect that to be the case again. They started off the year with a 66-10 win over Coastal Carolina and they'll be looking to send a message right out of the gate that they are every bit as good as last year's team. Quarterback Daryll Clark and running back Evan Royster lead the offense, but I expect Penn State's defense to be the key here. The Nittany Lions ranked 8th in the nation last year in both total and scoring defense and I expect them to be even better this season. The Nittany Lions are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 vs. the MAC, 5-1 ATS in their last 6 non-conference games, and 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 games as a favorite of 10.5 or greater. Lay the points.

NCAA-F | Sep 05 '09 (12:00p)
Toledo vs Purdue Toledo
+10½-110 at 5dimes
4* Major Week 1 Underdog Shocker on Toledo +10.5
Toledo beat a Michigan team last season that was better than the Purdue team they will face Saturday. Plus, this Toledo team, which returns 16 starters is expected to be greatly improved as well. The Boilermakers will be a bottom of the barrel type team in the Big Ten this season. No Curtis Painter and no Kory Sheets equals no offense. The Boilermakers are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 vs. the MAC and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 non-conference games. Take the points.


NCAA-F | Sep 05 '09 (4:00p)
Rice vs UAB UAB
-5-110 at bodog
4* Major Conference USA Game of the Month on UAB -5
UAB returns all 11 offensive starters, and I expect this unit, led by QB Joe Webb to torch a Rice defense which allowed 33.0 ppg last season. The Owls won 10 games last year but lost all of their offense and won't be able to answer the call. The Blazers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in September while the Owls are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games in September. The Blazers are also 4-1 ATS in their last 5 conference games. UAB finished the season with 3 wins in its last 5 games, and nearly beat Conference USA champ East Carolina. Look for UAB to be jacked up to start the year at home and in conference play.

NCAA-F | Sep 05 '09 (7:00p)
Ul Monroe vs Texas Texas
-40½-102 at 5dimes
3* SMASH on Texas -40.5
IL Monroe is one of the worst football teams in the country. The Longhorns opened up last football season with a 42-point win over a much better FAU squad. They then posted 42-point wins in their next two home non-conference games. The Longhorns are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 non-conference games and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 vs. the S-Belt. Plus, UL Monroe is 7-21 ATS as a road underdog of 21.5 or more points since 1992. Texas will win by as much as they want to and that should be good enough for a cover here.


[ back to top ]

NFL Football Premium Picks
-= TOP PLAY =-
NFL | Sep 03 '09 (8:00p)
Green Bay Packers vs Tennessee Titans Tennessee Titans
-3-110 at bodog
5* NFLX Blowout of the Year on Titans -3
Green Bay (3-0) has nothing left to prove this preseason and because of that Aaron Rodgers is only expected to play one series. Backup QB Matt Flynn is not 100% and that means Brian Brohm, who has looked horrible, should see most of the snaps. The Titans are coming of back-to-back losses on the road and I expect them to bounce back at home here to build some momentum for the regular season. Tennessee has the superior QB depth with Vince Young and Patrick Ramsey. Green Bay's defense gave up 37 points on the road last week and cornerbacks Al Harris and Charles Woodson may not even make the trip, and certainly won't play much, if at all, if they do. Lay the points.
 
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Insider Sports Report

NCAAF
4* Oregon/Boise St. UNDER 64
4* N. Texas +17 over Ball St.

NFL
3* Arizona Cardinals-3.5 over Denver Broncos

MLB
3* Atlanta Braves -125 over Florida Marlins
 
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Dr Bob Free Analysis

South Carolina at No Carolina St.
Thursday, Sep-03 04:00 PM
Favorite: No Carolina St. -5.0
Total: 47.0
South Carolina has been nothing special in 4 seasons under legendary coach Steve Spurrier, losing either 5 or 6 games each season while rating between 2 to 10 points better than an average team. This year's team falls into that range as well. The offense was horrible last season, averaging just 4.8 yards per play (against teams that would allow 5.3 yppl to an average team) while the quarterbacks combined for 27 interceptions, but that unit should be about average this season with sophomore quarterback Stephen Garcia having more experience and with high regarded freshman back Jarvis Giles ready to uplift the ground assault. Garcia completed only 53% of his passes last season and averaged only 5.4 yards per pass play (against teams that would allow 6.1 yppp to an average QB), but Garcia is likely to be more accurate while throwing fewer interceptions this year. The receiving corps is still a question mark, but I'll call for average passing results for the Gamecocks this season while the rushing attack continues to be sub-par even with Giles. South Carolina was 0.7 yards per rushing play worse than average last season and I'll call for a -0.4 yprp rating until I see what Giles can do). It's certainly possible that Garcia can be a better than average quarterback (last year was the first year under Spurrier that the pass attack was worse than 0.3 yppp better than average, but I'll take a wait and see approach.

The Gamecocks' defense carried the team last season with a dominating performance, allowing just 4.8 yppl against a schedule that would have averaged 5.8 yppl against an average stop unit. There are only 6 returning starters on the defense this year (5 with DT Ajiboye suspended for a couple of games), compared to 9 last season, but LB Eric Norwood is an All-American candidate (1st team SEC the last 2 years) and the safeties are good enough to make up for the young pair of cornerbacks. South Carolina didn't really lose any impact players from last year's defense and I think they'll be close to as good this season (especially later in the season).

NC State was a pretty good team last season when DT Alan-Michael Cash and LB Nate Irving were both in the lineup on defense and when freshman quarterback Russell Wilson was behind center and they should be solid this year even without Irving, who is out for the season after a car accident left him with a broken leg. The defense was good with Irving, but will probably be mediocre at best without him (even with Cash back) now that projected starters CB Ellis and FS Simmons have left team. NC State actually was 0.3 yppl worse than average for the season in 2008, so even a mediocre performance will be an upgrade.

The Wolfpack will be a better than average team because of quarterback Wilson, who enters this season with a streak of 249 passes without an interception. Wilson is likely to throw more than the 1 pick he threw all of last season, but he's also likely to improve upon his solid yards per pass play numbers (6.0 yppp last year against teams that would allow 5.7 yppp to an average QB). Wilson is also an adept runner who logged 548 yards at 91 rushing plays last season (6.0 yprp) and he'll help out a mediocre stable of running backs (4.4 ypr last year) to produce a better than average ground attack.

This game pits NC State's better than average offense against the Gamecocks' stingy defense while mediocrity meets mediocrity when South Carolina has the ball. My ratings favor NC State by 3 1/2 points with a total of 47 1/2 points and I can see this game going either way.
 
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Dr. K (Kambour) CFB Projections

INPUT: PREDICTED
South Carolina (+3.5) (+155) 24
NC State (U 46) 23

Utah St (O 52.5) 14
Utah (-20.5) (-2500) 41

Oregon (O 63.5) (+170) 30
Boise St (-5) 35

Troy St (-6.5) 31
Bowling Green (U 56.5) (+215) 24

North Texas (O 59) 17
Ball St (-17) (-1250) 47
 
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WNBA Basketball Picks

Seattle at Washington

The Storm look to build on their 5-0 ATS record in their last 5 games versus the Eastern Conference. Seattle is the pick (+2) according to Dunkel, which has the Storm favored by 3 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Seattle (+2). Here are all of today's picks.

THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 3

Game 601-602: Seattle at Washington
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle 114.076; Washington 110.518
Dunkel Line & Total: Seattle by 3 1/2; 140 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Washington by 2; 143
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (+2); Under
 
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Wunderdog

Game: Detroit at Buffalo (Thursday 9/03 6:30 PM Eastern)

Pick: Detroit +3.5 (-120)

The Lions did not win a game last year in the regular season. But, they did run the table in the preseason. They have already won two games this preseason and it's becoming evident that this team is about winning in the NFLX. The Lions may have an advantage in this game thanks to the continuing QB battle between rookie Matthew Stafford and veteran Dante Culpepper. In a game that usually sees starters rested, each of these top two QBs will likely see more time than the typical game four. The Bills coach Dick Juaron has never had a winning preseason as coach of the Bills and he will likely just run the clock and let the game pass. Juaron is just 13-22 in his 35 preseason coached games and that number is even worse in game four as he is just 2-6. I look for the Lions to at the very least cover this one, if not come away with the outright win.
 
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MLB Computer Picks

St. Louis Cardinals -200
Tampa Bay Rays -125
New York Yankees -135

NFL Picks

Detroit Lions +3
Philadelphia Eagles +3
Atlanta Falcons -2½
Cincinnati Bengals -3½
New England Patriots +3
Washington Redskins +6
Chicago Bears -2½
Green Bay Packers +3½
St. Louis Rams +1
New Orleans Saints -3
Carolina Panthers -3
Denver Broncos +3½
Seattle Seahawks -3
 

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Valentino's play IS today it is on the utah/utah St game.....Was hoping someone could pick it up.


Burns Main Event

Under Oregon/Boise St
 
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Lance's Lock

Overall record: 837-724-31

Current streak: 2 wins

Todays play: Over 46' NC State/South Carolina
 

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