THE SPORTS ADVISORS
NBA PLAYOFFS
WESTERN CONFERENCE
(2) Denver (8-3 SU, 11-0 ATS) at (1) L.A. Lakers (9-4 SU, 7-6 ATS)
The Lakers, who eked out a Game 1 victory in the Western Conference finals, look to maintain home-court advantage and stay on track for a second straight NBA Finals berth when they face the Nuggets in Game 2 at Staples Center.
Los Angeles trailed much of the night Tuesday in the best-of-7 series opener, then rallied to post a 105-103 victory, though it failed to cover as a healthy 6½-point chalk. Kobe Bryant scored 40 points, including 15 in the final 6:48, capped by six free throws in the last 30 seconds to ice the game. Only two other Lakers reached double digits in scoring, with Derek Fisher and Pau Gasol (14 rebounds) each netting 13 points.
Carmelo Anthony led Denver with 39 points in Game 1, and Chauncey Billups had 18 points and eight assists for the Nuggets, who led by double digits early and were up by as many as seven in the fourth quarter. Denver could have sealed the deal with better free-throw shooting, as they got 35 trips to the line – 11 more than the Lakers – but made just 23, while L.A. hit 20 of 24 from the charity stripe. Denver also got beat on the boards 46-37 and had just seven offensive rebounds, while the Lakers nabbed 17.
The Nuggets’ three playoff losses have come by a combined six points – all two-point setbacks on the road from the underdog role, but Denver cashed in all three and remains perfect against the number in the postseason.
The Lakers have won 11 straight playoff games in this rivalry, and they are 4-1 SU (3-2 ATS) against the Nuggets this year. Despite failing to cash in Game 1, Los Angeles is on ATS rolls against Denver of 10-3 overall and 13-4 at Staples Center. Tuesday’s contest marked the first time this season that the home team hasn’t covered.
Los Angeles is 43-6 SU (24-25 ATS) at home this season, including 7-1 (4-4 ATS) in the postseason. Denver is 23-23 SU (26-20 ATS) on the highway (2-3 SU and 5-0 ATS in the playoffs).
The Lakers are on ATS upticks of 7-4 at home and 4-1 after a non-cover, but they also carry negative pointspread streaks of 1-7 after a SU win, 1-4 against the Northwest Division and 2-7 laying five to 10½ points in the playoffs.
The Nuggets are still 22-6 SU in their last 28 games, and they remain on several spread-covering sprees, including 21-6 overall, 5-0 after a SU loss, 5-0 as a playoff pup (all this year, all on the road), 19-7 following an ATS win and 6-1 against the Pacific Division. That said, Denver is on ATS skids of 16-35-1 overall as an underdog of five to 10½ points and 1-4 as a playoff pup of the same price.
The under for Los Angeles is on surges of 9-2 overall (5-0 in the last five), 6-0 in the conference finals, 6-1 after a SU win, 5-1 at home and 25-9 with the Lakers laying points. Likewise, the under for Denver is on stretches of 8-3 on the road, 12-4 as an underdog, 18-5 as a playoff pup and 10-1 with catching five to 10½ points in the postseason.
Finally, with Game 1 staying under the total, the under is now 7-1 in the last eight head-to-head clashes overall and 10-4 in the last 14 battles in L.A.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
NATIONAL LEAGUE
Chicago Cubs (21-17) at St. Louis (23-17)
The Cardinals go for a three-game sweep of the hated Cubs at Busch Stadium tonight, with Adam Wainwright (3-2, 3.83) slated to toe the rubber for the home team against Chicago southpaw Sean Marshall (2-2, 4.02).
The Cardinals have posted wins of 3-0 and 2-1 to begin this series, holding the Cubs to a total of just nine hits. The back-to-back wins for St. Louis come after a 4-10 slump, including a 2-7 rut against N.L. Central rivals. Tony LaRussa’s squad is now 20-7 in its last 27 as a home chalk, 6-1 in its last seven against lefty starters and it has won eight consecutive Thursday contests.
The Cubs have followed up a five-game winning streak with three straight defeats, and they’re 1-4 in their last five road games, all within the N.L. Central. Chicago has also lost eight of its last nine as an underdog, five of its last seven on Thursday and eight of their last 10 against teams with a winning record.
This is the third series of the year between these hated rivals, with the Redbirds now holding a 5-3 lead, including winning four of the last five battles, all in St. Louis. The host is 6-1 in the last seven clashes.
Marshall came out of the bullpen on Sunday in a 4-4 game against the Astros and got the final out in the top of the ninth inning, then earned the victory when the Cubs scored in the bottom of the ninth. In his last start on May 10, Marshall earned a 4-2 victory at Milwaukee, allowing two runs in five innings. That snapped Chicago’s eight-game losing skid in games started by Marshall. Still, the Cubs have lost 17 of Marshall’s last 22 starts overall, including four of his last five on the road and five of his last six on Thursday.
With the win at Milwaukee, Marshall improved to 1-1 with a 3.75 ERA in four appearances (two starts) on the road this season, with the one defeat coming in an 8-2 loss at St. Louis on April 25. In fact, Marshall faced the Cardinals in consecutive starts last month, giving up a combined six runs in 11 innings, with Chicago losing both games. For his career, he’s 2-2 with a 3.79 ERA in 11 appearances (seven starts) against St. Louis.
Wainwright was a tough-luck 1-0 loser on Sunday against the Brewers, allowing the single run on two hits in a complete-game, eight-inning effort at home, which came on the heels of two poor outings (11 earned runs allowed in 12 innings against the Phillies and Reds). The right-hander is now 1-2 with a 3.16 ERA in five home starts.
Despite Sunday’s setback, with Wainwright on the bump, the Cardinals still enjoy positive runs of 19-7 overall, 16-5 at home, 16-6 as a favorite and 4-0 against Chicago. That includes two wins eight days apart last month – 7-4 in Chicago against Marshall and 4-3 at home – even though Wainwright allowed a combined seven runs (five earned) in 13 innings. He’s just 2-3 with a 5.47 ERA all-time against the Cubs (17 appearances, eight starts).
The over is 11-4-2 in Wainwright’s last 17 starts overall, 8-2-1 in his last 11 against N.L. Central rivals and 4-1-1 in Marshall’s last six starts. However, with Marshall starting, the Cubs are on “under” streaks of 13-3-1 on the road, 7-1-1 versus the N.L. Central and 4-1-1 when he faces the Redbirds.
The under is 7-1-1 in the last nine series battles at Busch Stadium, including 3-1-1 this season. For Chicago, the over is still on streaks of 6-3-1 on the road, 35-17-1 on Thursday and 11-6-1 as a road underdog. Conversely, the Cardinals carry “under” trends of 6-2 overall (all against the N.L. Central) and 50-22-1 on Thursday.
ATS ADVANTAGE: ST. LOUIS
AMERICAN LEAGUE
Toronto (27-16) at Boston (24-16)
For the second straight day, the Blue Jays send a rookie pitcher to the Fenway Park mound, with Robert Ray (1-1, 3.60) squaring off against lefty Jon Lester (2-4, 6.51), who will try to pitch the Red Sox to a three-game sweep of this series between A.L. East rivals.
One night after edging Toronto 2-1, Boston pounded out an 8-3 victory Wednesday. The two wins come on the heels of a 1-4 slump, and last night’s offensive outburst ended a string of nine straight games in which the Red Sox failed to score more than five runs. The Sox carry positive trends of 79-33 at home, 18-7 as a favorite, 37-14 on Thursday and 6-1 in divisional contests.
The Blue Jays have dropped two in a row after arriving in Boston on a 12-5 surge. Toronto is 12-5 in its last 17 Thursday games but just 5-8 in its last 13 roadies and 1-6 in its last seven as an underdog. Cito Gaston’s crew had surrendered three runs or fewer in eight of nine games, including last six in a row, prior to Wednesday’s blowout loss..
Boston is now 6-1 in the last seven clashes with Toronto dating to last season.
Ray threw a gem against the White Sox on Sunday, allowing just one unearned run on three hits over eight innings, with the Blue Jays scoring two runs in the bottom of the eighth to give the right-hander a 2-1 victory, his first in the big leagues. However, in his first road start, Ray got rocked for six runs (five earned) on 10 hits in 6 1/3 innings at the Angels, losing 6-1. Ray, who is making his fourth major-league start tonight, is facing Boston for the first time.
Lester, who got off to a slow start in April before turning things around in leading the Sox to four straight wins, is in a funk once again. He’s given up 13 runs (all earned) on 18 hits over his last two starts totaling just 10 innings (11.70 ERA), losing 14-5 at home to Tampa Bay and 5-4 at Seattle on Saturday. With the eight-run, 4 1/3-inning outing against the Rays, Lester is now 1-2 with a 6.04 ERA in four home starts.
Despite Lester’s recent struggles, Boston is still 39-19 in his last 58 starts overall, 22-5 in his last 27 at home (all as a favorite) and 20-9 in his last 29 against the A.L. East. In five starts against Toronto, the southpaw is 1-2 with a 3.94 ERA, but 1-0 with 0.56 ERA in two games at Fenway (both Red Sox victories)..
Toronto is on “under” stretches of 4-2 on the road, 5-2 against A.L. East rivals and 4-1 as an underdog. Boston is 6-2-1 “under” in its last nine overall (4-1-1 “under” in the last six), 5-1 “under” in Lester’s last six Thursday outings and 2-0 in Lester’s two home starts against Toronto. Finally, the under is 4-2 in the last six meetings between these clubs and 7-4 in the last 11 clashes at Fenway Park.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
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