NBA Playoffs: 5/14
Over 190.5 Boston / Orlando 7:05 ET 2 Units
Parlay: Orlando -7 and Over 190.5 Risk 1 unit to win 2.6 Units
The Celtics are a tired team... that's why we were on the Magic in game 5 (going against our Boston series bet), figuring that after their gutsy come from behind win in game 4 winning at the buzzer, they'd have nothing left for game 5.... and we were right except the Magic tried running out the clock with just under 5 minutes left and allowed Boston to inch closer and closer until they caught them. It takes a lot of energy to come back like Boston has done in games 4 & 5 and it also takes alot of energy to play good defense which Boston has been doing lately. We're looking for a wide open game tonight as Boston is drained which will force them to abort any real defensive effort. Also remember, the Celtics have not had more than 1 day off since 4/24.... almost 3 weeks! They've played every other night since 4/26 (this is their 10th game since the 26th and Orlando's 9th and don't forget about all the OT games with the Bulls). And as for the Magic, after Dwight Howard opened his mouth about getting him the ball he has now put a big burden on himself to produce offensively which we're sure he'll do just fine with. We're playing the game just as listed above with the bulk of our play on the over as we really don't like laying the big points but feel a blowout for Orlando is likely. Then it will be back to Boston for game seven as our series play is still pending.
Over 197.5 LA Lakers / Houston 9:35 ET 1.5 Units
We feel LA will come with all they have tonight as they do not want to play a game seven. Denver wrapped things up last night and are now resting, so the Lakers don't want to give them any advantage there. Houston couldn't contain LA in game 5 as we thought they would so they're probably going to try to open things up a bit here and if they manage to shoot better than 33% as in game 5, this one should fly over.
-End
bettingasabusiness.com
Over 190.5 Boston / Orlando 7:05 ET 2 Units
Parlay: Orlando -7 and Over 190.5 Risk 1 unit to win 2.6 Units
The Celtics are a tired team... that's why we were on the Magic in game 5 (going against our Boston series bet), figuring that after their gutsy come from behind win in game 4 winning at the buzzer, they'd have nothing left for game 5.... and we were right except the Magic tried running out the clock with just under 5 minutes left and allowed Boston to inch closer and closer until they caught them. It takes a lot of energy to come back like Boston has done in games 4 & 5 and it also takes alot of energy to play good defense which Boston has been doing lately. We're looking for a wide open game tonight as Boston is drained which will force them to abort any real defensive effort. Also remember, the Celtics have not had more than 1 day off since 4/24.... almost 3 weeks! They've played every other night since 4/26 (this is their 10th game since the 26th and Orlando's 9th and don't forget about all the OT games with the Bulls). And as for the Magic, after Dwight Howard opened his mouth about getting him the ball he has now put a big burden on himself to produce offensively which we're sure he'll do just fine with. We're playing the game just as listed above with the bulk of our play on the over as we really don't like laying the big points but feel a blowout for Orlando is likely. Then it will be back to Boston for game seven as our series play is still pending.
Over 197.5 LA Lakers / Houston 9:35 ET 1.5 Units
We feel LA will come with all they have tonight as they do not want to play a game seven. Denver wrapped things up last night and are now resting, so the Lakers don't want to give them any advantage there. Houston couldn't contain LA in game 5 as we thought they would so they're probably going to try to open things up a bit here and if they manage to shoot better than 33% as in game 5, this one should fly over.
-End
bettingasabusiness.com
Drew Gordon
Drew Gordon Today's Games... 1. 200,000♦ Magic
2. 50,000♦ Orioles
1. Magic- A couple reasons to like the Magic in this spot, but let's start with the most obvious... This is a true "must-win" situation, down 3-2 to the Celtics in this Semifinals series, they're now staring elimination in the eye. And while jumping on Boston plus the points might seem tempting, there's no doubt in my mind that Orlando will come out with more energy, in this back-against-the-wall battle. But that's hardly the only reason to like the Magic tonight.
The Magic know the formula/blueprint to beating the Celtics, and they followed it perfectly until 5 minutes were left in the 4th quarter of Game 5. So what's the blueprint and what will we see in Game 6? It all starts with Howard and Rashard Lewis. You see, when the Magic's offense starts with Howard, it forces the Celitcs defense to collapse, and opens up the 3-point line for sharp-shooters like Lewis and Turkoglu. Boston has no one that can match up with Lewis, plain and simple. Scalabrine can't, Davis can't, and therefore it is critical they get him open looks. Magic took their foot off the gas in Game 5 and paid DEARLY for it, do not expect that to happen again tonight, especially on the firendly rims of Amway Arena!
Looking back at Game 5, the Magic actually outshot the Celtics, and quite frankly outplayed them until those last 5 minutes, with a 10-point lead at the 4:55 mark. Alston and Turkoglu were solid in delivering the basketball (14 assits combines), but the rest of the Magic's role players did not show up (as expected in high pressure road games). But a return home should greatly benefit players like Lee, Redick, Johnson, and Pietrus, who were all invisible in Game 5. The Magic's bench is deeper than the Celtics (as long as House doesn't catch fire), and I look for them to show up BIG tonight.
Finally, let's not forget the home court has always meant a lot when these two teams meet, with the home team going 24-11 ATS in their last 35 meetings. This is the largest spread we've seen all series, and mark my words boys, that is NO accident. Vegas isn't stupid, and despite the Celtics furious comeback in Game 5, they are clearly indicating this will be a substantive Magic win tonight. In fact, if I were a Boston-backer, I'd be extremely worried about a letdown here, as their big-time win in Game 5 could lead to unfocused play in Game 6. Orlando will bring its "A" game tonight at home, and this time they'll bring it for the full 48 minutes!
Take the Magic over the Celtics as your top-rated play of the day.
2. Orioles- For those of you expecting to see the Royals offense come back to life now that they return to Kauffman, think again! I l know full well Jeremy Guthrie hasn't won since April 11th, but that doesn't mean he hasn't pitched well...
In fact, I've seen some very promising signs over his last 2 starts - both losses - but both solid efforts, allowing 7 runs over his last 14 innings combined. His last one was especially promising, in that, he allowed all 3 runs off a first inning A-Rod dinger, and then settled down nicely the rest of the way. He looked A LOT like the Gurthrie of old, and match up against a sputtering Royals offense is exactly what the doctor ordered!
Opposing Guthrie is the Royals veteran Gil Meche, who's looked pretty awful over his last 3 starts, going 1-2 with a 7.63 ERA. What's worse is the Orioles gave Meche plenty of trouble last season, as he went 0-2 with a 7.36 ERA in 2 starts against them. While he'll likely benefit from not having to see Orioles's CF Adam Jones (doubtful with hamstring injury), they still have more than enough to deal with Meche, batting a blistering .314 against righties over their last 10 games!
Finally, those who don't pay attention to history are doomed to repeat it, right? Well boys, the Orioles are 14-3 in their last 17 meetings in Kansas City, owning this series as much as any other in the Majors. Look guys, obviously the Royals will eventually snap their losing streak, but not tonight, not against a resurgent Gruthrie, and not with the O's offense killing righties (like they did to Meche last season). In the end, Guthrie finally gets back to form and delivers another Orioles win at Kauffamn Thursday.
Take the Orioles behind Guthrie over the Royals and Meche in this MLB match up.
BOUGHT,PAID AND CONFIRMED------------GL GUYS
Drew Gordon Today's Games... 1. 200,000♦ Magic
2. 50,000♦ Orioles
1. Magic- A couple reasons to like the Magic in this spot, but let's start with the most obvious... This is a true "must-win" situation, down 3-2 to the Celtics in this Semifinals series, they're now staring elimination in the eye. And while jumping on Boston plus the points might seem tempting, there's no doubt in my mind that Orlando will come out with more energy, in this back-against-the-wall battle. But that's hardly the only reason to like the Magic tonight.
The Magic know the formula/blueprint to beating the Celtics, and they followed it perfectly until 5 minutes were left in the 4th quarter of Game 5. So what's the blueprint and what will we see in Game 6? It all starts with Howard and Rashard Lewis. You see, when the Magic's offense starts with Howard, it forces the Celitcs defense to collapse, and opens up the 3-point line for sharp-shooters like Lewis and Turkoglu. Boston has no one that can match up with Lewis, plain and simple. Scalabrine can't, Davis can't, and therefore it is critical they get him open looks. Magic took their foot off the gas in Game 5 and paid DEARLY for it, do not expect that to happen again tonight, especially on the firendly rims of Amway Arena!
Looking back at Game 5, the Magic actually outshot the Celtics, and quite frankly outplayed them until those last 5 minutes, with a 10-point lead at the 4:55 mark. Alston and Turkoglu were solid in delivering the basketball (14 assits combines), but the rest of the Magic's role players did not show up (as expected in high pressure road games). But a return home should greatly benefit players like Lee, Redick, Johnson, and Pietrus, who were all invisible in Game 5. The Magic's bench is deeper than the Celtics (as long as House doesn't catch fire), and I look for them to show up BIG tonight.
Finally, let's not forget the home court has always meant a lot when these two teams meet, with the home team going 24-11 ATS in their last 35 meetings. This is the largest spread we've seen all series, and mark my words boys, that is NO accident. Vegas isn't stupid, and despite the Celtics furious comeback in Game 5, they are clearly indicating this will be a substantive Magic win tonight. In fact, if I were a Boston-backer, I'd be extremely worried about a letdown here, as their big-time win in Game 5 could lead to unfocused play in Game 6. Orlando will bring its "A" game tonight at home, and this time they'll bring it for the full 48 minutes!
Take the Magic over the Celtics as your top-rated play of the day.
2. Orioles- For those of you expecting to see the Royals offense come back to life now that they return to Kauffman, think again! I l know full well Jeremy Guthrie hasn't won since April 11th, but that doesn't mean he hasn't pitched well...
In fact, I've seen some very promising signs over his last 2 starts - both losses - but both solid efforts, allowing 7 runs over his last 14 innings combined. His last one was especially promising, in that, he allowed all 3 runs off a first inning A-Rod dinger, and then settled down nicely the rest of the way. He looked A LOT like the Gurthrie of old, and match up against a sputtering Royals offense is exactly what the doctor ordered!
Opposing Guthrie is the Royals veteran Gil Meche, who's looked pretty awful over his last 3 starts, going 1-2 with a 7.63 ERA. What's worse is the Orioles gave Meche plenty of trouble last season, as he went 0-2 with a 7.36 ERA in 2 starts against them. While he'll likely benefit from not having to see Orioles's CF Adam Jones (doubtful with hamstring injury), they still have more than enough to deal with Meche, batting a blistering .314 against righties over their last 10 games!
Finally, those who don't pay attention to history are doomed to repeat it, right? Well boys, the Orioles are 14-3 in their last 17 meetings in Kansas City, owning this series as much as any other in the Majors. Look guys, obviously the Royals will eventually snap their losing streak, but not tonight, not against a resurgent Gruthrie, and not with the O's offense killing righties (like they did to Meche last season). In the end, Guthrie finally gets back to form and delivers another Orioles win at Kauffamn Thursday.
Take the Orioles behind Guthrie over the Royals and Meche in this MLB match up.
BOUGHT,PAID AND CONFIRMED------------GL GUYS
Vegas Runner
vegas-runner | NBA Sides Thu, 05/14/09 - 7:05 PM
<DT> triple-dime bet 742 ORL 7.0 (-105) Bodog vs 741 BOS <DD>Analysis: ? *** NBA PLAYOFFS 3* BEST BET of the DAY ***
Bodog using -105 !!
</DD>
vegas-runner | NBA Sides Thu, 05/14/09 - 9:35 PM
<DT> double-dime bet 744 HOU 9.5 (-110) Bodog vs 743 LAL <DD>Analysis: ** NBA PLAYOFFS 2* PERSONAL PLAY **
BODOG using +9.5...PLEASE wait until much closer to Tip-Off...since every books I've spoken to is getting a ton of Lakers action...And more importantly, a ton of Lakers money on TEASERS & ML Parlay Bets...So they should be forced to continue adjusting the line...VR
</DD>
vegas-runner | MLB Money Line Thu, 05/14/09 - 7:05 PM
<DT> double-dime bet 922 TAM (-160) SportBet vs 921 CLE <DD>Analysis: ** MLB 2* PERSONAL PLAY **
SHIELDS over Carmona
Would have really liked to have passed this along as soon as the Wiseguys unloaded at -145 and then again at -150...But I won't let the extra 10cents stop me from taking a Position, like I did the Cubs this morning...
In fact, looking back over the "Projected Finals" and Results of the L/2+ weeks, I've realized that we've left some Units on the table simply because the price was up over -150...
Obviously the parameters must be set higher, as the price increases...and the Win Probability must be greater than the price represents...
And that's the case in this one...as Cleveland has not been able to get it going at all this year...They aren't used to the surface they will play on, and they are only 6-11 on the Road and have? only won 2 of their L/7 Games...
Cleveland has also not been able to win 2 straight this year...and are now "1-11" after a win...
Tampa Bay has begun to do the opposite...and that is play up to their potential...and begin scoring some runs...They've averaged over 6 runs in their L/7 Games...while Cleveland has averaged 3.3 in that same span...
Shields has always pitched well at home...and we'll back him in this spot...Since according to our Model...we can expect to turn a profit long term in this spot, even if we went ahead and laid up to -174...VR
</DD>
<DT class=dtPgTop>vegas-runner | MLB Money Line Thu, 05/14/09 - 10:15 PM
<DT> double-dime bet 911 NYM (-130) Bookmaker.com vs 912 SFG <DD>Analysis: ** MLB 2* PERSONAL PLAY **
MAINE over Sanchez
</DD><DD> </DD><DD> </DD>paid and confirmed by me
vegas-runner | NBA Sides Thu, 05/14/09 - 7:05 PM
<DT> triple-dime bet 742 ORL 7.0 (-105) Bodog vs 741 BOS <DD>Analysis: ? *** NBA PLAYOFFS 3* BEST BET of the DAY ***
Bodog using -105 !!
</DD>
vegas-runner | NBA Sides Thu, 05/14/09 - 9:35 PM
<DT> double-dime bet 744 HOU 9.5 (-110) Bodog vs 743 LAL <DD>Analysis: ** NBA PLAYOFFS 2* PERSONAL PLAY **
BODOG using +9.5...PLEASE wait until much closer to Tip-Off...since every books I've spoken to is getting a ton of Lakers action...And more importantly, a ton of Lakers money on TEASERS & ML Parlay Bets...So they should be forced to continue adjusting the line...VR
</DD>
vegas-runner | MLB Money Line Thu, 05/14/09 - 7:05 PM
<DT> double-dime bet 922 TAM (-160) SportBet vs 921 CLE <DD>Analysis: ** MLB 2* PERSONAL PLAY **
SHIELDS over Carmona
Would have really liked to have passed this along as soon as the Wiseguys unloaded at -145 and then again at -150...But I won't let the extra 10cents stop me from taking a Position, like I did the Cubs this morning...
In fact, looking back over the "Projected Finals" and Results of the L/2+ weeks, I've realized that we've left some Units on the table simply because the price was up over -150...
Obviously the parameters must be set higher, as the price increases...and the Win Probability must be greater than the price represents...
And that's the case in this one...as Cleveland has not been able to get it going at all this year...They aren't used to the surface they will play on, and they are only 6-11 on the Road and have? only won 2 of their L/7 Games...
Cleveland has also not been able to win 2 straight this year...and are now "1-11" after a win...
Tampa Bay has begun to do the opposite...and that is play up to their potential...and begin scoring some runs...They've averaged over 6 runs in their L/7 Games...while Cleveland has averaged 3.3 in that same span...
Shields has always pitched well at home...and we'll back him in this spot...Since according to our Model...we can expect to turn a profit long term in this spot, even if we went ahead and laid up to -174...VR
</DD>
<DT class=dtPgTop>vegas-runner | MLB Money Line Thu, 05/14/09 - 10:15 PM
<DT> double-dime bet 911 NYM (-130) Bookmaker.com vs 912 SFG <DD>Analysis: ** MLB 2* PERSONAL PLAY **
MAINE over Sanchez
</DD><DD> </DD><DD> </DD>paid and confirmed by me
Big Al's 7-0 ATS MLB TOTALS WINNER
At 8:10pm our selection is on the Baltimore Orioles and Kansas City Royals 'over' the total. The top half of the Oriole batting order is becoming one of the most potent in the American League. Never mind that it falls off pretty quickly after the top four batters (most lineups do), but the combination of Roberts, Jones, Markakis, and Huff is perhaps only eclipsed by a couple of teams in the AL at most, and a healthy Melvin Mora at #5 isn't too bad either. These four are the main reason the Orioles have now scored 48 runs in their last nine games, for an average of more than five runs per game. This has to be the main concern for KC starter Gil Meche, who has suffered three poor starts in a row and has faced the Orioles eight times in the last three years with absolutely nothing to show for his efforts (0-6). Last year in particular was rough for Meche facing the Birds as in two starts against them he went 0-2 with a 7.36 ERA. Meche has only had two home starts this season, and neither was particularly effective. And in those two home starts, a total of 19 runs were scored. After winning the first two starts of righthanded starter Jeremy Guthrie, the Orioles have now lost five Guthrie outings in a row, even though Guthrie really hasn't pitched that badly. He has gotten very solid run support in most of his starts, and four of his seven starts have gone a total of ten or more runs. The Birds have gone 'over' the total in all seven of their nighttime road games this season, and I look for another high-scoring game tonight. Take the 'over'. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
At 8:10pm our selection is on the Baltimore Orioles and Kansas City Royals 'over' the total. The top half of the Oriole batting order is becoming one of the most potent in the American League. Never mind that it falls off pretty quickly after the top four batters (most lineups do), but the combination of Roberts, Jones, Markakis, and Huff is perhaps only eclipsed by a couple of teams in the AL at most, and a healthy Melvin Mora at #5 isn't too bad either. These four are the main reason the Orioles have now scored 48 runs in their last nine games, for an average of more than five runs per game. This has to be the main concern for KC starter Gil Meche, who has suffered three poor starts in a row and has faced the Orioles eight times in the last three years with absolutely nothing to show for his efforts (0-6). Last year in particular was rough for Meche facing the Birds as in two starts against them he went 0-2 with a 7.36 ERA. Meche has only had two home starts this season, and neither was particularly effective. And in those two home starts, a total of 19 runs were scored. After winning the first two starts of righthanded starter Jeremy Guthrie, the Orioles have now lost five Guthrie outings in a row, even though Guthrie really hasn't pitched that badly. He has gotten very solid run support in most of his starts, and four of his seven starts have gone a total of ten or more runs. The Birds have gone 'over' the total in all seven of their nighttime road games this season, and I look for another high-scoring game tonight. Take the 'over'. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
