Nite Owl Sports
Boston Celtics @ Orlando Magic
2 units: Boston Celtics +7
There are two ways to look at this game, and which path is taken will determine which side one takes in this game 6. The first approach, which obviously some bettors and line makers have taken (given the high line on this game) is that (i) Magic is the better of the two teams and will take out their game 4 and 5 frustrations on Celtics at home in this game and (ii) Celtics will “mail this one in,” especially if they get behind early, knowing that they have game 7 at home. But we don’t buy any of that, for a few reasons. First, Celtics players and coaches know that given their near disaster in game 5 at home, and their home loss in game one, a game 7 home win is no sure thing, and thus they’d better knock out this dangerous Orlando team whenever they have the chance, the first such chance being tonite. And with Cavs next up for Celtics if they win this series, and knowing how “spent” they were for game one of this series after that grueling 7 game marathon vs Bulls, HC Doc Rivers has surely been telling his players that they will be much better off if they can end this series tonite and get at least two days’ rest before having to face Cavs in Cleve. And then there is the “C factor” (character and coaching). As we’ve said in write ups of our victorious picks on Boston in games 4 and 5, and we’ll say again, despite the obvious talent on this Magic team and their convincing game 3 series home win, we don’t believe they have the “character” or the coaching necessary to make a serious run at the NBA title. And that was shown in spades in game 5, where Magic held a 14 point lead (77-63) midway thru 4Q, but “gagged” down the stretch, giving up an 11-0 run to Celtics by taking a number of ill-advised shots” (e.g., Lewis’ 25 foot “bomb” with more than ten seconds left on the shot clock, that did not even “draw iron,” and Turk’s left-handed “hail mary” driving lay up that barely hit the “glass”), while Celtics were working the ball around to get high % shots or at least get to the FT line on each possession (and BTW, Celtics were a perfect 21-21 from the “charity stripe” in game 5). And we believe that Magic HC Stan Van Gundy, who, unlike Doc Rivers, is NOT A BIG-TIME COACH, is largely responsible for that collapse, by not controlling his team, failing to remind his guys that all they had to do in order to win the game was work the game clock under 10 seconds on each possession, and get the ball “inside” to Dwight Howard, the best big man on the floor. Instead, we don’t recall Howard even touching the ball in the last five minutes until the final seconds, by which time his team was already behind, and Celtics knew they could afford to foul him, which they did.
And in order to determine which type of bet(s) gives us a good chance to win with Boston (FG, 1H or 1Q), we checked the scoring patterns of these teams in several “representative games” for each -- Boston on the road when playing the NBA's top defensive teams (Orlando being in the top five defensively, even though they did not look like it in game two), and Magic at home vs vs such good defensive teams. First, we looked at how both teams did vs FG line in their representative games, with those games including all four between these two teams TY in Orlando. Including their game 3 blowout win last fri night, Magic were just 3-5 ATS at home TY vs such good defensive teams, with an average margin of victory of 3 points in those games. And as far as Celtics are concerned, other than two bad losses to Cavs at the "Q," a place where they seem convinced they can't win (and thus don't), they were they were 5-2 ATS (with average result a tie) in their other 7 road games (incl their game 3 loss in orlando) against such teams, with two regular season ATS wins at Orlando in addition to their huge game 4 win in this series, and SU wins at SA and Houston on the plus side, with only a nine point loss to Lakers at Staples and that game 3 loss to Magic being their only ATS losses in such representative road games outside of Cleve. Moreover, including games 3 and 4, Boston is 4-2 ATS the last two years in Orlando, including 3-1 ATS and 2-2 SU TY, with an average MOL of just 3 points, skewed somewhat by that 21 point game 3 loss. But recall that in game 4 in Orlando, Magic as a team shot just 40% (incl a brick-like 5-27 treys) on 84 total shots, compared to 53% for Celtics on 73 shots, with numerous hurried shots by Magic, compared to much better ball movement and shot selection by Celtics. As a result, Magic gave up its early 1Q lead midway through 2Q, to end up down by 2 at HT, and then failed to “wake up” until the game’s final minutes, mounting a valiant but “too little, too late” comeback which fell short, thus allowing the Boston backers to line up at the "pay window" after the game.
So while this pick on Boston vs this generous full game line of +7 is not our strongest pick on this game (you’ll have to buy at least our one day NBA pass for just $35 to get our stronger picks), we have enough support here for a two unit pick on Boston at +7> (make it one unit at +6 or 6.5, and pass at < 6).
Boston Celtics @ Orlando Magic
2 units: Boston Celtics +7
There are two ways to look at this game, and which path is taken will determine which side one takes in this game 6. The first approach, which obviously some bettors and line makers have taken (given the high line on this game) is that (i) Magic is the better of the two teams and will take out their game 4 and 5 frustrations on Celtics at home in this game and (ii) Celtics will “mail this one in,” especially if they get behind early, knowing that they have game 7 at home. But we don’t buy any of that, for a few reasons. First, Celtics players and coaches know that given their near disaster in game 5 at home, and their home loss in game one, a game 7 home win is no sure thing, and thus they’d better knock out this dangerous Orlando team whenever they have the chance, the first such chance being tonite. And with Cavs next up for Celtics if they win this series, and knowing how “spent” they were for game one of this series after that grueling 7 game marathon vs Bulls, HC Doc Rivers has surely been telling his players that they will be much better off if they can end this series tonite and get at least two days’ rest before having to face Cavs in Cleve. And then there is the “C factor” (character and coaching). As we’ve said in write ups of our victorious picks on Boston in games 4 and 5, and we’ll say again, despite the obvious talent on this Magic team and their convincing game 3 series home win, we don’t believe they have the “character” or the coaching necessary to make a serious run at the NBA title. And that was shown in spades in game 5, where Magic held a 14 point lead (77-63) midway thru 4Q, but “gagged” down the stretch, giving up an 11-0 run to Celtics by taking a number of ill-advised shots” (e.g., Lewis’ 25 foot “bomb” with more than ten seconds left on the shot clock, that did not even “draw iron,” and Turk’s left-handed “hail mary” driving lay up that barely hit the “glass”), while Celtics were working the ball around to get high % shots or at least get to the FT line on each possession (and BTW, Celtics were a perfect 21-21 from the “charity stripe” in game 5). And we believe that Magic HC Stan Van Gundy, who, unlike Doc Rivers, is NOT A BIG-TIME COACH, is largely responsible for that collapse, by not controlling his team, failing to remind his guys that all they had to do in order to win the game was work the game clock under 10 seconds on each possession, and get the ball “inside” to Dwight Howard, the best big man on the floor. Instead, we don’t recall Howard even touching the ball in the last five minutes until the final seconds, by which time his team was already behind, and Celtics knew they could afford to foul him, which they did.
And in order to determine which type of bet(s) gives us a good chance to win with Boston (FG, 1H or 1Q), we checked the scoring patterns of these teams in several “representative games” for each -- Boston on the road when playing the NBA's top defensive teams (Orlando being in the top five defensively, even though they did not look like it in game two), and Magic at home vs vs such good defensive teams. First, we looked at how both teams did vs FG line in their representative games, with those games including all four between these two teams TY in Orlando. Including their game 3 blowout win last fri night, Magic were just 3-5 ATS at home TY vs such good defensive teams, with an average margin of victory of 3 points in those games. And as far as Celtics are concerned, other than two bad losses to Cavs at the "Q," a place where they seem convinced they can't win (and thus don't), they were they were 5-2 ATS (with average result a tie) in their other 7 road games (incl their game 3 loss in orlando) against such teams, with two regular season ATS wins at Orlando in addition to their huge game 4 win in this series, and SU wins at SA and Houston on the plus side, with only a nine point loss to Lakers at Staples and that game 3 loss to Magic being their only ATS losses in such representative road games outside of Cleve. Moreover, including games 3 and 4, Boston is 4-2 ATS the last two years in Orlando, including 3-1 ATS and 2-2 SU TY, with an average MOL of just 3 points, skewed somewhat by that 21 point game 3 loss. But recall that in game 4 in Orlando, Magic as a team shot just 40% (incl a brick-like 5-27 treys) on 84 total shots, compared to 53% for Celtics on 73 shots, with numerous hurried shots by Magic, compared to much better ball movement and shot selection by Celtics. As a result, Magic gave up its early 1Q lead midway through 2Q, to end up down by 2 at HT, and then failed to “wake up” until the game’s final minutes, mounting a valiant but “too little, too late” comeback which fell short, thus allowing the Boston backers to line up at the "pay window" after the game.
So while this pick on Boston vs this generous full game line of +7 is not our strongest pick on this game (you’ll have to buy at least our one day NBA pass for just $35 to get our stronger picks), we have enough support here for a two unit pick on Boston at +7> (make it one unit at +6 or 6.5, and pass at < 6).
Bob Donahue
Boston at Orlando
Pick: Boston +7.5
We will be backing the visiting Celtics in this spot. I believe that this will be a one or two posession game, and that it is just too many points to be laying in this contest. Yes, the Magic did have the Celtics down and out last outing, but look for a repeat of the game four thriller here tonight.
Boston at Orlando
Pick: Boston +7.5
We will be backing the visiting Celtics in this spot. I believe that this will be a one or two posession game, and that it is just too many points to be laying in this contest. Yes, the Magic did have the Celtics down and out last outing, but look for a repeat of the game four thriller here tonight.
Al DeMarco
Thursday's Play
5 Dime - New York Yankees
If you look on my homepage, you'll see I rode C.C. Sabathia in his last start against Baltimore, saying I expected the lefthander to finally put together the type of dominating effort New York anticipated after giving him the big bucks in free agency. And Sabathia delivered with a four-hit shutout of the O's last Friday.
Sabathia, if you recall from last season, is one of those guys who when he gets on a roll, you ride him, and that's why I'm back on him tonight, even at this price around 145 to 150. You're getting the discount because of New York's slow start, Toronto's fast break from the gate, and two straight strong starts turned in by Brian Tallet, whom the Blue Jays were forced to bring out of the bullpen early in the season because of numerous injuries in their rotation.
Tallet is coming off back-to-back seven-inning outings against the A's and Indians in which he allowed a total of six hits and four earned runs. But keep in mind that Oakland and Cleveland are two of the worst hitting teams in the American League. Three starts ago the lefthander was shelled by the Royals for 11 hits and 10 earned runs in four innings pitched.
Sabathia has pitched well against the Blue Jays in the past, going 7-3 with a 3.46 ERA against them, including a 3-1 mark and 2.88 ERA in Toronto.
So why not take the Yankees on the Run Line tonight as an underdog? Well, I simply don't have that much faith in their offense. Yes, New York erupted for eight runs minus Derek Jeter last night, but it was held to one run in the series opener on Tuesday. Again, the moneyline price of around 145 or 150 is okay considering the bankroll I've accumulated thanks to a 16-5 run over the past five weeks. Thus, I'm willing to take the risk of the investment tonight as I'm anticipating another lockdown pitching performance from Sabathia to quell the Toronto bats.
Thursday's Play
5 Dime - New York Yankees
If you look on my homepage, you'll see I rode C.C. Sabathia in his last start against Baltimore, saying I expected the lefthander to finally put together the type of dominating effort New York anticipated after giving him the big bucks in free agency. And Sabathia delivered with a four-hit shutout of the O's last Friday.
Sabathia, if you recall from last season, is one of those guys who when he gets on a roll, you ride him, and that's why I'm back on him tonight, even at this price around 145 to 150. You're getting the discount because of New York's slow start, Toronto's fast break from the gate, and two straight strong starts turned in by Brian Tallet, whom the Blue Jays were forced to bring out of the bullpen early in the season because of numerous injuries in their rotation.
Tallet is coming off back-to-back seven-inning outings against the A's and Indians in which he allowed a total of six hits and four earned runs. But keep in mind that Oakland and Cleveland are two of the worst hitting teams in the American League. Three starts ago the lefthander was shelled by the Royals for 11 hits and 10 earned runs in four innings pitched.
Sabathia has pitched well against the Blue Jays in the past, going 7-3 with a 3.46 ERA against them, including a 3-1 mark and 2.88 ERA in Toronto.
So why not take the Yankees on the Run Line tonight as an underdog? Well, I simply don't have that much faith in their offense. Yes, New York erupted for eight runs minus Derek Jeter last night, but it was held to one run in the series opener on Tuesday. Again, the moneyline price of around 145 or 150 is okay considering the bankroll I've accumulated thanks to a 16-5 run over the past five weeks. Thus, I'm willing to take the risk of the investment tonight as I'm anticipating another lockdown pitching performance from Sabathia to quell the Toronto bats.
To make up for all the clutter i caused, i decided i would pick up ferringo's nba GOW
4-Unit Play. Take #742 Orlando (-6.5) over Boston (7 p.m. Thursday, May 14)
2.5-Unit Play. FIRST HALF: #742 Orlando (-3.5) over Boston (7 p.m. Thursday, May 14)
NOTE: This is our Game of the Week.
2-Unit Play. Take #744 Houston (+9) over L.A. Lakers (9:30 p.m. Thursday, May 14)
4-Unit Play. Take #742 Orlando (-6.5) over Boston (7 p.m. Thursday, May 14)
2.5-Unit Play. FIRST HALF: #742 Orlando (-3.5) over Boston (7 p.m. Thursday, May 14)
NOTE: This is our Game of the Week.
2-Unit Play. Take #744 Houston (+9) over L.A. Lakers (9:30 p.m. Thursday, May 14)
