BIG AL'S FULL SERVICE CLIENTS
Thursday
At 4:55 pm, on Thursday, our Opening Round Game of the Year is on the Washington Huskies minus the points over Mississippi State. Take Lorenzo Romar's Huskies in a blowout: Opening Round Game of the Year on Washington.
At 12:30 pm, our Early Morning High Roller is on the BYU Cougars minus the points over Texas A&M. In contrast, when BYU is an underdog, it's an awful 30-61-1 ATS its last 92. Take BYU.
At 9:50 pm, our Bailout Blowout is on the UCLA Bruins minus the points over VCU. With VCU in off a 71-50 win (as a 3.5-point fave), we'll fade the Rams here, and take UCLA.
At 7:25 pm, our Opening Round Shocker is on the Akron Zips plus the points over Gonzaga. Take the points with Akron. Good luck as always...Al McMordie.<!-- / message --><!-- sig -->
Thursday
At 4:55 pm, on Thursday, our Opening Round Game of the Year is on the Washington Huskies minus the points over Mississippi State. Take Lorenzo Romar's Huskies in a blowout: Opening Round Game of the Year on Washington.
At 12:30 pm, our Early Morning High Roller is on the BYU Cougars minus the points over Texas A&M. In contrast, when BYU is an underdog, it's an awful 30-61-1 ATS its last 92. Take BYU.
At 9:50 pm, our Bailout Blowout is on the UCLA Bruins minus the points over VCU. With VCU in off a 71-50 win (as a 3.5-point fave), we'll fade the Rams here, and take UCLA.
At 7:25 pm, our Opening Round Shocker is on the Akron Zips plus the points over Gonzaga. Take the points with Akron. Good luck as always...Al McMordie.<!-- / message --><!-- sig -->
Last edited:
Handicapper: Matt Fargo Sports
Sport: College Basketball
Game: Michigan Wolverines @ Clemson Tigers - Thursday March 19, 2009 7:10 pm
Pick: 3 units ATS: Michigan Wolverines +5 (-110)
Clemson started the season 16-0 and expectations grew once again only to see the Tigers tumble again. They went 7-8 in their last 15 games including a first round loss in the ACC Tournament against lowly Georgia Tech. This is nothing new. Last season, Clemson started the season 10-0 and 12-1 only to finish 12-9 in their final 21 games including a first round NCAA tournament exit against Villanova. Two years ago, Clemson started the season 17-0 only to finish 4-9 in its final 13 regular season games then lost in the first round of the ACC Tournament and had to settle for an NIT invitation. Want more history? Three years ago, it was an 11-0 start and a 7-11 finish along with a first round ACC Tournament loss and another NIT bid. This tells us two things. First, the non-conference schedules have been a joke and those cupcake wins do nothing in preparation for the ACC. This years non-conference schedule was ranked 260th in the nation. Second, the coaching is a real issue. Oliver Purnell has put a good resume together in his six years at Clemson but he has yet to get the Tigers over the hump. Last year was a classic example as he led them to their first NCAA Tournament in nine years only for them to bow out after one game. With the athletes this team has, they should be a lot better. Michigan built a very good resume in the non-conference season as it defeated UCLA and Duke. A 3-1 start in the Big Ten turned some heads but a 2-7 run ensued and it looked as though the 11-year NCAA Tournament drought would continue. The Wolverines finished strong however as they went 4-2 in their final six regular season games before splitting in the Big Ten Tournament. Michigans success or lack thereof comes down to making shots. If the shots are falling, the Wolverines can beat anyone but if they are not going down, victorious becomes more difficult. As with any John Beilein coached team, Michigan takes care of the ball as it has a 1.38 assist/turnover ratio which is ninth best in the nation. It is also shooting 75.5 percent from the charity stripe which is 14th in the country. Those are two of the bigger statistical categories to look at come tournament time and the Wolverines have advantages in both in this matchup. They also have an edge in overall efficiency and that is pretty big considering they are the underdog. Back to the coaching, Beilein is spectacular. He is the 7th head coach all-time to bring four different teams into the NCAA Tournament. I will take him over Purnell with four days to prepare any day of the week. If the perimeter shots are falling at just an average clip, the Wolverines have a great shot at the upset. 3* Michigan Wolverines
Sport: College Basketball
Game: Michigan Wolverines @ Clemson Tigers - Thursday March 19, 2009 7:10 pm
Pick: 3 units ATS: Michigan Wolverines +5 (-110)
Clemson started the season 16-0 and expectations grew once again only to see the Tigers tumble again. They went 7-8 in their last 15 games including a first round loss in the ACC Tournament against lowly Georgia Tech. This is nothing new. Last season, Clemson started the season 10-0 and 12-1 only to finish 12-9 in their final 21 games including a first round NCAA tournament exit against Villanova. Two years ago, Clemson started the season 17-0 only to finish 4-9 in its final 13 regular season games then lost in the first round of the ACC Tournament and had to settle for an NIT invitation. Want more history? Three years ago, it was an 11-0 start and a 7-11 finish along with a first round ACC Tournament loss and another NIT bid. This tells us two things. First, the non-conference schedules have been a joke and those cupcake wins do nothing in preparation for the ACC. This years non-conference schedule was ranked 260th in the nation. Second, the coaching is a real issue. Oliver Purnell has put a good resume together in his six years at Clemson but he has yet to get the Tigers over the hump. Last year was a classic example as he led them to their first NCAA Tournament in nine years only for them to bow out after one game. With the athletes this team has, they should be a lot better. Michigan built a very good resume in the non-conference season as it defeated UCLA and Duke. A 3-1 start in the Big Ten turned some heads but a 2-7 run ensued and it looked as though the 11-year NCAA Tournament drought would continue. The Wolverines finished strong however as they went 4-2 in their final six regular season games before splitting in the Big Ten Tournament. Michigans success or lack thereof comes down to making shots. If the shots are falling, the Wolverines can beat anyone but if they are not going down, victorious becomes more difficult. As with any John Beilein coached team, Michigan takes care of the ball as it has a 1.38 assist/turnover ratio which is ninth best in the nation. It is also shooting 75.5 percent from the charity stripe which is 14th in the country. Those are two of the bigger statistical categories to look at come tournament time and the Wolverines have advantages in both in this matchup. They also have an edge in overall efficiency and that is pretty big considering they are the underdog. Back to the coaching, Beilein is spectacular. He is the 7th head coach all-time to bring four different teams into the NCAA Tournament. I will take him over Purnell with four days to prepare any day of the week. If the perimeter shots are falling at just an average clip, the Wolverines have a great shot at the upset. 3* Michigan Wolverines
vegas-runner | CBB Sides Double-Dime Bet
<DT>718 Brigham Young -3.0 (-110) Bodog vs 717 Texas A&M <DD>Analysis: ** NCAABB 2* LATE STEAM **</DD><DL><DT class=dtPgTop>Thu, 03/19/09 - 12:25 PMvegas-runner | CBB Sides Double-Dime Bet <DT>723 CS Northridge 20.5 (-110) BetUS vs 724 Memphis <DD>Analysis: ** NCAABB 2* LATE STEAM **</DD></DL>
<DL><DT class=dtPgTop>Thu, 03/19/09 - 3:00 PMvegas-runner | CBB Sides Double-Dime Bet <DT>716 UConn -20.5 (-110) BetUS vs 715 Chattanooga <DD>Analysis: ** NCAABB "PERSONAL PLAY **
Guys, this Line should continue to drop as books are reporting more Public Money on Chatt...I expect UCONN to come out looking to blow someone out of the gym after the way they closed out the BE Tourney...VR
</DD></DL>
<DL><DT class=dtPgTop>Thu, 03/19/09 - 9:55 PMvegas-runner | CBB Sides Triple-Dime Bet <DT>736 Illinois -5.0 (-110) BetUS vs 735 W. Ky <DD>Analysis: **** NCAABB 1st ROUND 4* GAME of the MONTH ****</DD></DL>
<DL><DT class=dtPgTop>Thu, 03/19/09 - 8:05 PMvegas-runner | NBA Sides Double-Dime Bet <DT>704 CLE -10.0 (-110) SportBet vs 703 POR <DD>Analysis: ** NBA on TNT 2* PERSONAL PLAY **</DD></DL>
<DL><DT class=dtPgTop>Thu, 03/19/09 - 9:50 PMvegas-runner | CBB Sides Double-Dime Bet <DT>722 UCLA -8.0 (-110) Bodog vs 721 Va. Commonwealth <DD>Analysis: ** NCAABB 2* PERSONAL PLAY **</DD></DL>
<DL><DT class=dtPgTop>Thu, 03/19/09 - 7:00 PMvegas-runner | CBB Sides Double-Dime Bet <DT>741 Rhode Island 1.0 (-110) BetUS vs 742 Penn St. <DD>Analysis: ** NCAABB 2* PERSONAL PLAY **</DD></DL>
<DT>718 Brigham Young -3.0 (-110) Bodog vs 717 Texas A&M <DD>Analysis: ** NCAABB 2* LATE STEAM **</DD><DL><DT class=dtPgTop>Thu, 03/19/09 - 12:25 PMvegas-runner | CBB Sides Double-Dime Bet <DT>723 CS Northridge 20.5 (-110) BetUS vs 724 Memphis <DD>Analysis: ** NCAABB 2* LATE STEAM **</DD></DL>
<DL><DT class=dtPgTop>Thu, 03/19/09 - 3:00 PMvegas-runner | CBB Sides Double-Dime Bet <DT>716 UConn -20.5 (-110) BetUS vs 715 Chattanooga <DD>Analysis: ** NCAABB "PERSONAL PLAY **
Guys, this Line should continue to drop as books are reporting more Public Money on Chatt...I expect UCONN to come out looking to blow someone out of the gym after the way they closed out the BE Tourney...VR
</DD></DL>
<DL><DT class=dtPgTop>Thu, 03/19/09 - 9:55 PMvegas-runner | CBB Sides Triple-Dime Bet <DT>736 Illinois -5.0 (-110) BetUS vs 735 W. Ky <DD>Analysis: **** NCAABB 1st ROUND 4* GAME of the MONTH ****</DD></DL>
<DL><DT class=dtPgTop>Thu, 03/19/09 - 8:05 PMvegas-runner | NBA Sides Double-Dime Bet <DT>704 CLE -10.0 (-110) SportBet vs 703 POR <DD>Analysis: ** NBA on TNT 2* PERSONAL PLAY **</DD></DL>
<DL><DT class=dtPgTop>Thu, 03/19/09 - 9:50 PMvegas-runner | CBB Sides Double-Dime Bet <DT>722 UCLA -8.0 (-110) Bodog vs 721 Va. Commonwealth <DD>Analysis: ** NCAABB 2* PERSONAL PLAY **</DD></DL>
<DL><DT class=dtPgTop>Thu, 03/19/09 - 7:00 PMvegas-runner | CBB Sides Double-Dime Bet <DT>741 Rhode Island 1.0 (-110) BetUS vs 742 Penn St. <DD>Analysis: ** NCAABB 2* PERSONAL PLAY **</DD></DL>
Andre Gomes
Golden State at LA Lakers
Play: Single Dime Play on -13 LA Lakers
Comments: NBA - 705 Golden State Warriors @ 706 Los Angeles Lakers The Lakers haven’t been a good team to back as a big home favorite this season. They are “just” 8-10 ATS as double digits home favorites but I believe that tonight’s game against the Warriors will be a very different story. The Lakers are coming off a rare home loss against the Sixers last game in a game that they lead as many as 14 points in the beginning of the fourth quarter and still lost the game. This lack of effort in the fourth quarter already happened in the previous game as the Lakers almost blew a 15-point lead against the Mavericks and only a late key 10-0 run stopped Dallas in that game. Can the Lakers do it again tonight? I don’t think so as I expect the Lakers to be more focused and bring a better attitude to the court tonight.
Against the Sixers they had less offensive rebounds and only went 15 times to the charity stripe. This is a clear indicator that the Lakers weren’t an aggressive team and Kobe Bryan had as well an off night by shooting only 5 for 15 from the field, committing 5 turnovers and in foul trouble the most part of the game. By being more aggressive the Warriors are in trouble because without their big center Andris Biedrins they will get killed by the Lakers down the post.
The Warriors are coming from a nice but unimpressed win against the Clippers 127-120 and the Clippers had 20 offensive boards vs just 9 from the Warriors! This can be problematic for the Warriors because Los Angeles is one of the better rebounding teams of the league. The Lakers are 3-0 SU versus the Warriors and they had an impressive advantage in controlling the glass as they outrebounded the Warriors by 9.0 rpg and 5.0 in terms of offensive rebounds. We must not forget that Golden State have been a terrible road team this season and stand just 6-27 SU (11-21 ATS) this season. In fact, after a home win they are 0-3 ATS being away underdogs and all of those losses were by double digits points. This is the best stage for us to bet in the Lakers as this is a TNT game I don’t expect LA to have a letdown after building a big lead. I remember that already in this season they are 3-0 ATS in home TNT being double digits favorites: 132-106 vs Phoenix; 117-97 vs Washington and 106-88 vs Miami. Take the Lakers in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on706 Los Angeles Lakers (-13) @ 1.95 on Pinnacle
Dallas at Atlanta
Play: SingleDime Play on Under 196.5
Comments: NBA - 701 Dallas Mavericks @ 702 Atlanta Hawks The Hawks are in a roll right now and they had taken full advantage of playing 6 consecutive home games to build an impressive 6-game winning streak. The common factor of those wins was their stellar defense as they allowed only 86.5 ppg to their opponents and even though that the Kings scored 97 points in the last game, the Hawks limited them to just 39.2 % from the field! I expect a similar defensive performance from the Hawks tonight as they want to set their biggest winning streak in nearly a decade.
Meanwhile the Mavericks are coming from a close win against the Pistons in a game that they almost blew a 17-point lead! Although they shot 56.7 % from the field and committed only 10 turnovers they allowed the Pistons to had more 25 field goal attempts! This ridiculous difference happened because the Pistons had 17 offensive boards vs just 4 from Dallas! Head coach Rick Carlisle has watched this poor display from the Mavs and knows the best chance to rectify it is to keep his strongest players on the floor whenever possible:
"[Singleton] will be in there sometimes with Damp and Dirk [Nowitzki], and we're very big," Carlisle said. "But whoever's out there, we're going to have to scramble to get rebounds because the discrepancy of possessions is going to get you after awhile."
So I expect the Mavericks to go “big” the most part of the game and compete against the powerful Hawks’ defense. The Mavericks are 12-6 Under as away underdogs in this season and in fact the Under is 7-1 in Mavericks last 8 games as a road underdog! They beat the Hawks at home in early December 100-98 in a game that despite ending with 198 points the score after 3 quarters was 74-59. I think that the fair line of this game should be 192/194 points and that’s why I’m taking the Under in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on Under 196.5 @ 1.93 on Pinnacle
Golden State at LA Lakers
Play: Single Dime Play on -13 LA Lakers
Comments: NBA - 705 Golden State Warriors @ 706 Los Angeles Lakers The Lakers haven’t been a good team to back as a big home favorite this season. They are “just” 8-10 ATS as double digits home favorites but I believe that tonight’s game against the Warriors will be a very different story. The Lakers are coming off a rare home loss against the Sixers last game in a game that they lead as many as 14 points in the beginning of the fourth quarter and still lost the game. This lack of effort in the fourth quarter already happened in the previous game as the Lakers almost blew a 15-point lead against the Mavericks and only a late key 10-0 run stopped Dallas in that game. Can the Lakers do it again tonight? I don’t think so as I expect the Lakers to be more focused and bring a better attitude to the court tonight.
Against the Sixers they had less offensive rebounds and only went 15 times to the charity stripe. This is a clear indicator that the Lakers weren’t an aggressive team and Kobe Bryan had as well an off night by shooting only 5 for 15 from the field, committing 5 turnovers and in foul trouble the most part of the game. By being more aggressive the Warriors are in trouble because without their big center Andris Biedrins they will get killed by the Lakers down the post.
The Warriors are coming from a nice but unimpressed win against the Clippers 127-120 and the Clippers had 20 offensive boards vs just 9 from the Warriors! This can be problematic for the Warriors because Los Angeles is one of the better rebounding teams of the league. The Lakers are 3-0 SU versus the Warriors and they had an impressive advantage in controlling the glass as they outrebounded the Warriors by 9.0 rpg and 5.0 in terms of offensive rebounds. We must not forget that Golden State have been a terrible road team this season and stand just 6-27 SU (11-21 ATS) this season. In fact, after a home win they are 0-3 ATS being away underdogs and all of those losses were by double digits points. This is the best stage for us to bet in the Lakers as this is a TNT game I don’t expect LA to have a letdown after building a big lead. I remember that already in this season they are 3-0 ATS in home TNT being double digits favorites: 132-106 vs Phoenix; 117-97 vs Washington and 106-88 vs Miami. Take the Lakers in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on706 Los Angeles Lakers (-13) @ 1.95 on Pinnacle
Dallas at Atlanta
Play: SingleDime Play on Under 196.5
Comments: NBA - 701 Dallas Mavericks @ 702 Atlanta Hawks The Hawks are in a roll right now and they had taken full advantage of playing 6 consecutive home games to build an impressive 6-game winning streak. The common factor of those wins was their stellar defense as they allowed only 86.5 ppg to their opponents and even though that the Kings scored 97 points in the last game, the Hawks limited them to just 39.2 % from the field! I expect a similar defensive performance from the Hawks tonight as they want to set their biggest winning streak in nearly a decade.
Meanwhile the Mavericks are coming from a close win against the Pistons in a game that they almost blew a 17-point lead! Although they shot 56.7 % from the field and committed only 10 turnovers they allowed the Pistons to had more 25 field goal attempts! This ridiculous difference happened because the Pistons had 17 offensive boards vs just 4 from Dallas! Head coach Rick Carlisle has watched this poor display from the Mavs and knows the best chance to rectify it is to keep his strongest players on the floor whenever possible:
"[Singleton] will be in there sometimes with Damp and Dirk [Nowitzki], and we're very big," Carlisle said. "But whoever's out there, we're going to have to scramble to get rebounds because the discrepancy of possessions is going to get you after awhile."
So I expect the Mavericks to go “big” the most part of the game and compete against the powerful Hawks’ defense. The Mavericks are 12-6 Under as away underdogs in this season and in fact the Under is 7-1 in Mavericks last 8 games as a road underdog! They beat the Hawks at home in early December 100-98 in a game that despite ending with 198 points the score after 3 quarters was 74-59. I think that the fair line of this game should be 192/194 points and that’s why I’m taking the Under in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on Under 196.5 @ 1.93 on Pinnacle
