Michael Cannon
Thursday's Plays...
20 Dime –
MICHIGAN
Take the points with Michigan over Clemson in the South Region.
I like the Wolverines mainly because of their coaching edge with John Beilein. This is a guy who gives his opposition fits with his 1-3-1 zone defense. You can be sure that Clemson hasn’t seen anything like this, and with the Tigers propensity for slipping down the stretch I don’t expect them to have an answer for it.
The Tigers also ranked last in the ACC in 3-point field goal percentage allowed, which is a death sentence going against Beilein’s perimeter oriented offense.
Michigan has jelled late in the season, covering six of its last eight games (4-1 ATS in its last five as a dog). The Wolverines have proven capable of competing with some of the nation’s best programs, knocking off Duke and Ucla this year.
Clemson is 0-4 ATS in its last four neutral-site games and 1-4 ATS in its last five overall.
Take the points with Michigan and don’t be surprised to see them win outright here.
10 Dime –
LSU
Take Lsu as the small chalk over Butler.
I know Butler is a favorite among the public, as this marks their 3rd straight appearance in the Big Dance. They advanced to the second found last year, but fell to Tennessee in overtime.
But there’s no substitute for experience, and the Tigers have the edge here. First-year head coach Trent Johnson led Nevada and Stanford to the Sweet Sixteen in his previous six seasons before taking over in Baton Rouge. Lsu also has a talented, athletic frontcourt led by Marcus Thornton, the SEC Player of the Year, and Tasmin Mitchell.
Those two will make life tough for Butler’s Matt Howard, who didn’t face this kind of talent in the Horizon League.
Butler has three freshmen in its starting lineup and believe me they’re going to feel the pressure of tournament play here.
Lsu defends the perimeter well which will keep the long-range shooters of Butler at bay, and the Tigers won’t give the ball away easily, as they averaged just 12 TO’s per game this year.
Butler failed to cover in five of its last seven overall and I like the experience and coaching of Lsu to get them the win here.
Take Lsu minus the points as they grab the win and cover.
5 Dime –
TEXAS A&M
Take Texas A&M as the small dog over Byu in the first round of the NCAA tournament.
This is a rematch of an opening-round tournament game last year, and I expect the same outcome, as the Aggies prevailed 67-62 in that game.
The Cougars haven’t fared well in past tourneys, going 11-26 SU all-time, including 0-2 SUATS under coach Dave Rose.
Texas A&M enters the tournament on a nice run, despite blowing a 21-point second-half lead to Texas Tech and losing 88-83 in the Big 12 tournament. Prior to that loss the Aggies had won six in a row and are on a current 10-3 ATS run.
I like the balance A&M has on offense and I believe that will allow them to get consistent open looks.
Byu has failed to cash in four of its last five tournament games and is also on ATS slides of 1-4 at neutral sites, 5-11 on Thursday and 1-6 after a non-cover.
Texas A&M is on ATS runs of 17-5 at neutral sites, 7-3 in non-conference play, 6-1 in the NCAA tournament, 4-1 on Thursday, 6-0 as a dog, 10-1 as a neutral-site underdog and 19-7 after a SU loss.
Take the points with Texas A&M as they get it done over Byu.
MARYLAND
Take Maryland as the small dog over Cal this afternoon in the West Region.
The Terps made a nice run in the ACC tournament to gain entry into the Big Dance and I expect them to continue their run.
Maryland’s interior deficiencies aren’t likely to be exposed by Cal, as the Bears rely on their perimeter game for the brunt of their offense.
The only problem is Cal hasn’t been knocking down enough 3-pointers recently, going 2-4 SU and 1-5 ATS down the stretch.
Maryland has the edge in the backcourt anyway with Greivis Vasquez, who is capable of lighting up anyone on any given day. The Terps as a team have risen to the occasion at various times this year with upsets of Michigan State, North Carolina and Wake Forest.
Cal hasn’t shown that it can beat that kind of opposition this year and I like the Terps big-game experience to pull them through this one.
Maryland is on positive ATS runs of 9-4 overall, 4-0 at neutral sites, 5-1 after a SU loss, 4-1 against winning teams and 7-3-2 in non-conference action.
Take Maryland as they grab the win.
Thursday's Plays...
20 Dime –
MICHIGAN
Take the points with Michigan over Clemson in the South Region.
I like the Wolverines mainly because of their coaching edge with John Beilein. This is a guy who gives his opposition fits with his 1-3-1 zone defense. You can be sure that Clemson hasn’t seen anything like this, and with the Tigers propensity for slipping down the stretch I don’t expect them to have an answer for it.
The Tigers also ranked last in the ACC in 3-point field goal percentage allowed, which is a death sentence going against Beilein’s perimeter oriented offense.
Michigan has jelled late in the season, covering six of its last eight games (4-1 ATS in its last five as a dog). The Wolverines have proven capable of competing with some of the nation’s best programs, knocking off Duke and Ucla this year.
Clemson is 0-4 ATS in its last four neutral-site games and 1-4 ATS in its last five overall.
Take the points with Michigan and don’t be surprised to see them win outright here.
10 Dime –
LSU
Take Lsu as the small chalk over Butler.
I know Butler is a favorite among the public, as this marks their 3rd straight appearance in the Big Dance. They advanced to the second found last year, but fell to Tennessee in overtime.
But there’s no substitute for experience, and the Tigers have the edge here. First-year head coach Trent Johnson led Nevada and Stanford to the Sweet Sixteen in his previous six seasons before taking over in Baton Rouge. Lsu also has a talented, athletic frontcourt led by Marcus Thornton, the SEC Player of the Year, and Tasmin Mitchell.
Those two will make life tough for Butler’s Matt Howard, who didn’t face this kind of talent in the Horizon League.
Butler has three freshmen in its starting lineup and believe me they’re going to feel the pressure of tournament play here.
Lsu defends the perimeter well which will keep the long-range shooters of Butler at bay, and the Tigers won’t give the ball away easily, as they averaged just 12 TO’s per game this year.
Butler failed to cover in five of its last seven overall and I like the experience and coaching of Lsu to get them the win here.
Take Lsu minus the points as they grab the win and cover.
5 Dime –
TEXAS A&M
Take Texas A&M as the small dog over Byu in the first round of the NCAA tournament.
This is a rematch of an opening-round tournament game last year, and I expect the same outcome, as the Aggies prevailed 67-62 in that game.
The Cougars haven’t fared well in past tourneys, going 11-26 SU all-time, including 0-2 SUATS under coach Dave Rose.
Texas A&M enters the tournament on a nice run, despite blowing a 21-point second-half lead to Texas Tech and losing 88-83 in the Big 12 tournament. Prior to that loss the Aggies had won six in a row and are on a current 10-3 ATS run.
I like the balance A&M has on offense and I believe that will allow them to get consistent open looks.
Byu has failed to cash in four of its last five tournament games and is also on ATS slides of 1-4 at neutral sites, 5-11 on Thursday and 1-6 after a non-cover.
Texas A&M is on ATS runs of 17-5 at neutral sites, 7-3 in non-conference play, 6-1 in the NCAA tournament, 4-1 on Thursday, 6-0 as a dog, 10-1 as a neutral-site underdog and 19-7 after a SU loss.
Take the points with Texas A&M as they get it done over Byu.
MARYLAND
Take Maryland as the small dog over Cal this afternoon in the West Region.
The Terps made a nice run in the ACC tournament to gain entry into the Big Dance and I expect them to continue their run.
Maryland’s interior deficiencies aren’t likely to be exposed by Cal, as the Bears rely on their perimeter game for the brunt of their offense.
The only problem is Cal hasn’t been knocking down enough 3-pointers recently, going 2-4 SU and 1-5 ATS down the stretch.
Maryland has the edge in the backcourt anyway with Greivis Vasquez, who is capable of lighting up anyone on any given day. The Terps as a team have risen to the occasion at various times this year with upsets of Michigan State, North Carolina and Wake Forest.
Cal hasn’t shown that it can beat that kind of opposition this year and I like the Terps big-game experience to pull them through this one.
Maryland is on positive ATS runs of 9-4 overall, 4-0 at neutral sites, 5-1 after a SU loss, 4-1 against winning teams and 7-3-2 in non-conference action.
Take Maryland as they grab the win.
