A bunch of picks here (maybe some comps), so I made one post
The Scout
Nevada pk
Huddle Up Sports
Gonzaga -4
Andre Gomes
Golden state -3
Arthur Ralph Sports
Thursday La Tech - 3
Dr. Vegas
Manhattan +13 over Siena
TV Hotline
GONZAGA -4
Harry Doyle Sports
NCAA: Buffalo - 9½
Dark Horse Sports
Thursday - Georgia Southern +1 over Furman
The Scout
Nevada pk
Huddle Up Sports
Gonzaga -4
Andre Gomes
Golden state -3
Arthur Ralph Sports
Thursday La Tech - 3
Dr. Vegas
Manhattan +13 over Siena
TV Hotline
GONZAGA -4
Harry Doyle Sports
NCAA: Buffalo - 9½
Dark Horse Sports
Thursday - Georgia Southern +1 over Furman
King Creole
Play: CAL-STATE FULLERTON TITANS plus the points
We're getting to the time of the Conference year in which there are a lot of 'same-season' REVENGE situations that will be presented to us. Based on our query in the Playbook CBB database, we'll be playing one of the more profitable systems tonight. And we have the added advantage of playing on a team (TITANS) that does very well in tonight's role... while playing against a team (Tigers) that does not do well in tonight's role.
15-3 ATS so far this season: All CONFERENCE teams with same-season REVENGE (SSR1) playing off a SU and ATS loss (FULLERTON STATE) versus any opponent off BB SU losses (Pacific). The Titans just lost as a favorite to Cal-Poly on Saturday (as favs). And the Tigers have dropped 2 games in a row to Long Beach State and Cal-Riverside. So e have all the components in place to qualify in this System. As far as our 'tightener', we note that if these "Revengers" are off a SU favorite loss (like the TITANS), the results shoot up to a PERFECT 3-0 ATS.
There's also a direct OPPOSITE scheduling situation for both teams that I found quite interesting. Fullerton State takes to the road off 3 straight HOME games.... while Pacific plays at home off 3 straight ROAD games. Depending on the line in these games, the DOG is the play.
18-7 ATS last 4 years: All CONFERENCE road dogs of 5 > points playing off 3+ home games (TITANS)... versus an opponent that's off 3+ road games (Tigers). If these 'value underdog' are taking on a host that's lost 2 or more games in a row (like Pacific has), the results improve to 9-1 ATS in the last 5 years.
FULLERTON STATE is a tremendous road dog in Big West conference play.
The TITANS are 9-1-1 ATS on the Big West road in the last 12 months... including 4-0-1 ATS as conference road DOGS. Already this season, they are 3-0 ATS as conference road dogs of 5 > points.
Meanwhile, PACIFIC has not done well hen installed as 'shorter' conference home favorites as of late. The TIGERS are 1-5-1 ATS in the last 2 years as Big West home favs of 8 < points. And in the last 7 years, they are 1-7 ATS in this point pread situation when playing off a SU LOSS.
Play: CAL-STATE FULLERTON TITANS plus the points
We're getting to the time of the Conference year in which there are a lot of 'same-season' REVENGE situations that will be presented to us. Based on our query in the Playbook CBB database, we'll be playing one of the more profitable systems tonight. And we have the added advantage of playing on a team (TITANS) that does very well in tonight's role... while playing against a team (Tigers) that does not do well in tonight's role.
15-3 ATS so far this season: All CONFERENCE teams with same-season REVENGE (SSR1) playing off a SU and ATS loss (FULLERTON STATE) versus any opponent off BB SU losses (Pacific). The Titans just lost as a favorite to Cal-Poly on Saturday (as favs). And the Tigers have dropped 2 games in a row to Long Beach State and Cal-Riverside. So e have all the components in place to qualify in this System. As far as our 'tightener', we note that if these "Revengers" are off a SU favorite loss (like the TITANS), the results shoot up to a PERFECT 3-0 ATS.
There's also a direct OPPOSITE scheduling situation for both teams that I found quite interesting. Fullerton State takes to the road off 3 straight HOME games.... while Pacific plays at home off 3 straight ROAD games. Depending on the line in these games, the DOG is the play.
18-7 ATS last 4 years: All CONFERENCE road dogs of 5 > points playing off 3+ home games (TITANS)... versus an opponent that's off 3+ road games (Tigers). If these 'value underdog' are taking on a host that's lost 2 or more games in a row (like Pacific has), the results improve to 9-1 ATS in the last 5 years.
FULLERTON STATE is a tremendous road dog in Big West conference play.
The TITANS are 9-1-1 ATS on the Big West road in the last 12 months... including 4-0-1 ATS as conference road DOGS. Already this season, they are 3-0 ATS as conference road dogs of 5 > points.
Meanwhile, PACIFIC has not done well hen installed as 'shorter' conference home favorites as of late. The TIGERS are 1-5-1 ATS in the last 2 years as Big West home favs of 8 < points. And in the last 7 years, they are 1-7 ATS in this point pread situation when playing off a SU LOSS.
Chip Chirimbes
USC vs. Arizona
Play: USC +2.5
The Southern California Trojans (15-7) have won five of the last six in this series and sometimes trends just continue to play out. For example, USC is 17-7 against the points in their last 24 road games and Arizona (aside from now playing without Lute Olson as head coach) have covered only 10 of their last 31 games on Thursday nights. Besides I believe that USC is a better team, after all the Wildcats did lose to UNLV. Take USC!
USC vs. Arizona
Play: USC +2.5
The Southern California Trojans (15-7) have won five of the last six in this series and sometimes trends just continue to play out. For example, USC is 17-7 against the points in their last 24 road games and Arizona (aside from now playing without Lute Olson as head coach) have covered only 10 of their last 31 games on Thursday nights. Besides I believe that USC is a better team, after all the Wildcats did lose to UNLV. Take USC!
MTi Sports
Portland Trail Blazers at Golden State Warriors
Prediction: Under
The Trailblazers are 0-9 OU (-18.2 ppg) with no rest after a game in which the percentage of their baskets that were assisted was at least ten percentage points higher than their season-to-date average and 0-9 OU (-8.2 ppg) after a game at home in which they scored less than 15% of their points from the free throw line. The Warriors are 0-6 OU (-12.8 ppg) as a home dog after a double digit win in which they shot at least ten three-pointers and made at least half of them and 1-11 OU (-12.8 ppg) at home with at least one day of rest after a game in which they shot at least 55% from the field. AND, the lone over was by only 2 points AFTER an overtime session (it was 27 points under at the end of regulation).Take the Blazers and Warriors UNDER.
Portland Trail Blazers at Golden State Warriors
Prediction: Under
The Trailblazers are 0-9 OU (-18.2 ppg) with no rest after a game in which the percentage of their baskets that were assisted was at least ten percentage points higher than their season-to-date average and 0-9 OU (-8.2 ppg) after a game at home in which they scored less than 15% of their points from the free throw line. The Warriors are 0-6 OU (-12.8 ppg) as a home dog after a double digit win in which they shot at least ten three-pointers and made at least half of them and 1-11 OU (-12.8 ppg) at home with at least one day of rest after a game in which they shot at least 55% from the field. AND, the lone over was by only 2 points AFTER an overtime session (it was 27 points under at the end of regulation).Take the Blazers and Warriors UNDER.
Dave Price
1 Unit on Northwestern +2
The road has been Illinois' Achilles Heel all season as it has lost 4 straight Big Ten road contests. NW is 11-2 at home this season and would love to pay Illinois back for the 70-37 loss it handed them in Champagne last year. NW played Purdue to a 2-point game and should have won as it had a big lead. It also beat Michigan State. Off a big blowout win over Purdue, I see the Illini taking their foot off the gas and trying to coast through this one and it will get them burned. Illinois is 1-9 ATS on the road when the line is +3 to -3 over the last 3 seasons. The average score was ILLINOIS 54.9, OPPONENT 63.2. Take the Wildcats.
1 Unit on Northwestern +2
The road has been Illinois' Achilles Heel all season as it has lost 4 straight Big Ten road contests. NW is 11-2 at home this season and would love to pay Illinois back for the 70-37 loss it handed them in Champagne last year. NW played Purdue to a 2-point game and should have won as it had a big lead. It also beat Michigan State. Off a big blowout win over Purdue, I see the Illini taking their foot off the gas and trying to coast through this one and it will get them burned. Illinois is 1-9 ATS on the road when the line is +3 to -3 over the last 3 seasons. The average score was ILLINOIS 54.9, OPPONENT 63.2. Take the Wildcats.
Scott Rickenbach (comp I believe, sorry)
Portland Trail Blazers @ Golden State Warriors
PICK: Portland Trail Blazers
The Warriors have not lost at home to Portland in more than four years and, of course, this is a big driver with this line moving upward today. We saw an opening number of a pick’em on this game then the lines first came out yesterday. We’re now seeing this line moving all the way up to the 3.5 range this morning. As long-time followers know, we love to fade the historical numbers when we feel it’s justified based on the current situation. That is precisely the case here! The Trail Blazers are the much better defensive team in this match-up.
The Warriors are coming off of a home rout of the Knicks as New York simply could not stop the Golden State offense. However, the Warriors won’t find those same types of openings against a very strong Blazers defense that is anchored by Greg Oden in the middle. Also, as impressive as the Warriors win was on Tuesday, Golden State did give up 127 points in the game. We feel strongly that they are going to struggle to stop Portland’s offensive weapons and we look for the Warriors to get frustrated by facing a much tougher defense today than what they faced on Tuesday versus New York. The Warriors have won 7 straight home games against Portland but Oden had 22 points and 10 rebounds in the loss here back in November. Note that the Blazers are 7-2 when Oden scores at least 13 points and so that was a rare loss on a night when Oden was “on”. We look for him to be “on” again here and we love getting the points here with a team that’s won 7 of their last 9, has a much stronger defense, and a team that is hell-bent on putting their 0-fer streak in Golden State to bed! Consider a small play on the Trail Blazers on Thursday.
Portland Trail Blazers @ Golden State Warriors
PICK: Portland Trail Blazers
The Warriors have not lost at home to Portland in more than four years and, of course, this is a big driver with this line moving upward today. We saw an opening number of a pick’em on this game then the lines first came out yesterday. We’re now seeing this line moving all the way up to the 3.5 range this morning. As long-time followers know, we love to fade the historical numbers when we feel it’s justified based on the current situation. That is precisely the case here! The Trail Blazers are the much better defensive team in this match-up.
The Warriors are coming off of a home rout of the Knicks as New York simply could not stop the Golden State offense. However, the Warriors won’t find those same types of openings against a very strong Blazers defense that is anchored by Greg Oden in the middle. Also, as impressive as the Warriors win was on Tuesday, Golden State did give up 127 points in the game. We feel strongly that they are going to struggle to stop Portland’s offensive weapons and we look for the Warriors to get frustrated by facing a much tougher defense today than what they faced on Tuesday versus New York. The Warriors have won 7 straight home games against Portland but Oden had 22 points and 10 rebounds in the loss here back in November. Note that the Blazers are 7-2 when Oden scores at least 13 points and so that was a rare loss on a night when Oden was “on”. We look for him to be “on” again here and we love getting the points here with a team that’s won 7 of their last 9, has a much stronger defense, and a team that is hell-bent on putting their 0-fer streak in Golden State to bed! Consider a small play on the Trail Blazers on Thursday.
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ALEX SMART
Calgary Flames @ Los Angeles Kings
PICK: Calgary Flames
The Los Angeles Kings enter into this home contest against the Calgary Flames playing their best hockey of the season, as is evident by their current 4 game winning streak, that has seen them win 7 of their L/8 games. The visiting Flames are currently operating at the proverbial opposite end of the performance spectrum, having lost five of their L/6 gamers. Despite of both teams current form, this game sets up well for a hungry Flames to come up with victory against a tired Kings side, that is returning home , after playing 8 of their L/9 games on the road.The Flames have in the past dominated this series , winning 8 of the L/9 meetings, out scoring the Kings by a 43-26 count . With that said , I'm betting on what must be considered the overall superior side (Calgary ) to have a wake up performance in this spot.
Final notes & Key Trends: Flames goalie Miikka Kiprusoff 11-3-1 with a 2.52 goals-against average in his last 15 games versus the Kings. Kings are 4-12 in their last 16 vs. Northwest. Kings are 3-7 in their last 10 home games
Play on the Calgary Flames
Calgary Flames @ Los Angeles Kings
PICK: Calgary Flames
The Los Angeles Kings enter into this home contest against the Calgary Flames playing their best hockey of the season, as is evident by their current 4 game winning streak, that has seen them win 7 of their L/8 games. The visiting Flames are currently operating at the proverbial opposite end of the performance spectrum, having lost five of their L/6 gamers. Despite of both teams current form, this game sets up well for a hungry Flames to come up with victory against a tired Kings side, that is returning home , after playing 8 of their L/9 games on the road.The Flames have in the past dominated this series , winning 8 of the L/9 meetings, out scoring the Kings by a 43-26 count . With that said , I'm betting on what must be considered the overall superior side (Calgary ) to have a wake up performance in this spot.
Final notes & Key Trends: Flames goalie Miikka Kiprusoff 11-3-1 with a 2.52 goals-against average in his last 15 games versus the Kings. Kings are 4-12 in their last 16 vs. Northwest. Kings are 3-7 in their last 10 home games
Play on the Calgary Flames
DCI
NBA
CHICAGO 100, Miami 96
Boston 99, DALLAS 96
Portland 108, GOLDEN STATE 106
DCI
NHL
PHILADELPHIA 4, Ottawa 2
CAROLINA 3, Florida 2
TAMPA BAY 4, Toronto 3
DETROIT 4, Minnesota 2
St. Louis vs. NASHVILLE: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
Vancouver vs. PHOENIX: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
Calgary vs. LOS ANGELES: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
NBA
CHICAGO 100, Miami 96
Boston 99, DALLAS 96
Portland 108, GOLDEN STATE 106
DCI
NHL
PHILADELPHIA 4, Ottawa 2
CAROLINA 3, Florida 2
TAMPA BAY 4, Toronto 3
DETROIT 4, Minnesota 2
St. Louis vs. NASHVILLE: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
Vancouver vs. PHOENIX: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
Calgary vs. LOS ANGELES: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
Stephen Nover
Miami at Chicago
Play: Chicago -3.5
This is a case where the Bulls are playing well - 7-0-1 against the spread in their last eight games - and the Heat are in their worst slump of the season.Miami has lost and failed to cover in five of its last seven. The Heat are loaded with rookies and second-year players. They could be hitting the wall as All-Star break approaches.Miami is averaging just 88 points in its last four games and could be without Shawn Marion, it's second best player and top perimeter defender. He suffered an eye injury during practice Wednesday. The Heat may be wise to hold him out giving him extra time to recover since the regular season doesn't pick up until next week.The Bulls have plenty of talent and it's starting to come together. Chicago is 5-2 in its last seven games. The Bulls' only losses during this span came at Dallas by one point in overtime and to the Rockets in Houston by seven.Not only are the Bulls home, but this is a grudge match. The Chicago coaches were incensed during the Bulls' 90-77 road loss to the Heat on Dec. 26 that Miami took a timeout with 14 seconds left.
Miami at Chicago
Play: Chicago -3.5
This is a case where the Bulls are playing well - 7-0-1 against the spread in their last eight games - and the Heat are in their worst slump of the season.Miami has lost and failed to cover in five of its last seven. The Heat are loaded with rookies and second-year players. They could be hitting the wall as All-Star break approaches.Miami is averaging just 88 points in its last four games and could be without Shawn Marion, it's second best player and top perimeter defender. He suffered an eye injury during practice Wednesday. The Heat may be wise to hold him out giving him extra time to recover since the regular season doesn't pick up until next week.The Bulls have plenty of talent and it's starting to come together. Chicago is 5-2 in its last seven games. The Bulls' only losses during this span came at Dallas by one point in overtime and to the Rockets in Houston by seven.Not only are the Bulls home, but this is a grudge match. The Chicago coaches were incensed during the Bulls' 90-77 road loss to the Heat on Dec. 26 that Miami took a timeout with 14 seconds left.
Vas-Sports
Illinois -1 (-120) @ Northwestern
Rating: 2 Star
In conference play Illinois defense has been stellar compared to Northwestern. Illiniois has held opponenets to an average of 57 points while the Wildcats defense has allowed conference opponents to score an average of 67 points. Both teams field goal % is farely close in conference play but Northwestern has the advantage due to their 3 point shooting.
Northwestern will need to be consistent tonight with their shooting as they have struggled getting boards. NW offense averages 21 boards a game well below the Big Ten average of 29. Illinois on the other hand are slightly above the Big Ten average. I would expect Illinois to be able to control the tempo of the game and create problems with their defense who is giving up ten less points a conference game compared to NW.
This year Illinois has not been that bad ATS away from home going 7-3-1. Also, when Illinois is up to a two point favorite the are 2-0 ATS while the Cats are 0-2 ATS.
Illinois -1 (-120) @ Northwestern
Rating: 2 Star
In conference play Illinois defense has been stellar compared to Northwestern. Illiniois has held opponenets to an average of 57 points while the Wildcats defense has allowed conference opponents to score an average of 67 points. Both teams field goal % is farely close in conference play but Northwestern has the advantage due to their 3 point shooting.
Northwestern will need to be consistent tonight with their shooting as they have struggled getting boards. NW offense averages 21 boards a game well below the Big Ten average of 29. Illinois on the other hand are slightly above the Big Ten average. I would expect Illinois to be able to control the tempo of the game and create problems with their defense who is giving up ten less points a conference game compared to NW.
This year Illinois has not been that bad ATS away from home going 7-3-1. Also, when Illinois is up to a two point favorite the are 2-0 ATS while the Cats are 0-2 ATS.
