Indian Cowboy
4 Unit Play. #734. Take Northwestern +2 over Illinois (Thursday @ 9pm est). We have certainly gone around the merry-go-round once this week as we are 1-1-1 rolling into Thursday. Currently we are 17-9 out our last 26 college ball picks which is sound but I really want to repeat something similar to last week when we went 5-2 hitting at one point 5 straight underdogs, four of which won outright. We did solid in Januayr with +66 units and in February we are hovingering around +20 in total profit as we roll on with our tortoise and investment philosophy of 2 plays a day - 1 per college and 1 per the nba. For today's play, let's roll with an upset in the making in the Big10 - my favorite conference. Man, I love this conference. When it was announced that Tubby and Jimmy B were going to be two of the coaches in this conference, I was stoked. This is because I knew Penn State and Northwestern were going to be much better this year as they had recruited well and had a lot of returning talent come back. Such is the case when Northwestern went ahead and prevailed in countless surprising results this year. Remember, Northwestern is the same team that beat Wisconsin at home by 3, the same team that beat Minnesota at home, Michigan State on the road, and after starting the year 0-4 in conference play, now sit at 4-6 so they can certainly use all the conference wins they can get. They only play Illinois once this year and bear in mind, well over 70% of the public favor Illinois. I love Illinois basketball. In fact, it is the team that I have ridden the most in the 2008-2009 year for ATS covers. Heck, they were even my GOM twice this year. But, this is simply not a good spot for them. Illinois beat this team 70-37 at home last year so these group of young men who have now grown up and a are a bit more seasoned, remember that stomping. You don't think these fellas that defeated Michigan State, Wisconsin and Minnesota do not have what it takes to take care of Illinois at home? Heck, this team even beat FSU at home as well. Illinois comes off a huge emotional win against Purdue and are in for a classic let down here as they are the same teams that of late have lost on the road to Wisconsin by 13 and Minnesota by 23. This game will swing back and forth, but let's ride the wave of the home crowd, with massive revenge from last year, our team that comes off a road loss as they return home and fading the public who is likely to get buried here as there is a reason why Northwestern is a +2 dog similar to what they were when they Minnesota and defeated them relatively easily.
Good luck,
Indian Cowboy.
4 Unit Play. #734. Take Northwestern +2 over Illinois (Thursday @ 9pm est). We have certainly gone around the merry-go-round once this week as we are 1-1-1 rolling into Thursday. Currently we are 17-9 out our last 26 college ball picks which is sound but I really want to repeat something similar to last week when we went 5-2 hitting at one point 5 straight underdogs, four of which won outright. We did solid in Januayr with +66 units and in February we are hovingering around +20 in total profit as we roll on with our tortoise and investment philosophy of 2 plays a day - 1 per college and 1 per the nba. For today's play, let's roll with an upset in the making in the Big10 - my favorite conference. Man, I love this conference. When it was announced that Tubby and Jimmy B were going to be two of the coaches in this conference, I was stoked. This is because I knew Penn State and Northwestern were going to be much better this year as they had recruited well and had a lot of returning talent come back. Such is the case when Northwestern went ahead and prevailed in countless surprising results this year. Remember, Northwestern is the same team that beat Wisconsin at home by 3, the same team that beat Minnesota at home, Michigan State on the road, and after starting the year 0-4 in conference play, now sit at 4-6 so they can certainly use all the conference wins they can get. They only play Illinois once this year and bear in mind, well over 70% of the public favor Illinois. I love Illinois basketball. In fact, it is the team that I have ridden the most in the 2008-2009 year for ATS covers. Heck, they were even my GOM twice this year. But, this is simply not a good spot for them. Illinois beat this team 70-37 at home last year so these group of young men who have now grown up and a are a bit more seasoned, remember that stomping. You don't think these fellas that defeated Michigan State, Wisconsin and Minnesota do not have what it takes to take care of Illinois at home? Heck, this team even beat FSU at home as well. Illinois comes off a huge emotional win against Purdue and are in for a classic let down here as they are the same teams that of late have lost on the road to Wisconsin by 13 and Minnesota by 23. This game will swing back and forth, but let's ride the wave of the home crowd, with massive revenge from last year, our team that comes off a road loss as they return home and fading the public who is likely to get buried here as there is a reason why Northwestern is a +2 dog similar to what they were when they Minnesota and defeated them relatively easily.
Good luck,
Indian Cowboy.
S Rockenboch
REASON FOR PICK: NBA 1* (regular play) Chicago Bulls (-) vs Miami @ 7:05 PM ET – In the long grind of an NBA season, it is important for a capper to focus in on games where there are special edges. Let’s face it, the odds makers do a rock solid job on most games so the key is finding those games where there is a stronger edge than one would normally expect to find. That is the case here with the Bulls. Chicago has not forgotten losing at Miami in their first match-up this season. That occurred in late December and the Bulls felt disrespected when the Heat called a timeout with just 30 seconds left and a 13 point lead. They used the time out to pull Dwyane Wade, Udonis Haslem, and Mario Chalmers from the game. However, the Bulls definitely felt it was not necessary and was simply a way for the Heat to “rub salt in the wound” in what was already a dominating effort for Miami. Bulls coach Vinny Del Negro was quoted after the game as saying “we’ll play them again”. That time has come!
On Thursday in Chicago on TNT, the Bulls get a chance to execute payback and they won’t let it pass them by. The key here is that the Heat have been struggling badly. Miami has lost five of their last seven and a big problem has been having to rely too much on Wade. He’s the only guy giving steady contributions in many games. That’s a big problem in this match-up because the Chicago native actually hasn’t played well at the United Center. In his last five games there Wade is averaging 16.6 points on just 36.1 percent shooting! Look for the other Chicago native on the floor tonight, Derrick Rose, to key the Bulls victory here. Rose has come a long way since that game at Miami. The Bulls have won five of their last seven and, over the last seven weeks, Rose has impressed more and more with each passing week. He’s averaged 18.4 points on 57.1 percent shooting in his last seven games. Also, Rose has 47 assists versus just 14 turnovers during this stretch.
While the Bulls had to rally to win their last game (versus the Pistons) it is the growth of Rose that helped the Bulls have that strong game-ending run. Those are the kind of strong finishes that build confidence and this Chicago team has come a long way compared to where they were the last time they faced the Heat. In the first match-up, Luol Deng got hurt during the game and Larry Hughes and Aaron Gray were both playing significant roles. Now Deng is healthy and Hughes and Gray weren’t even in the box score of the Bulls win over Detroit Tuesday. Also, Kirk Hinrich is now back for Chicago and Joakim Noah has become a big contributor. This is a classic case of two teams going in opposite directions and the added incentive for the Bulls here made it a definite play for us! Play Chicago minus the points as a regular selection
Scott Rickenbach’s College Hoops Game #707 - 1* (regular play) Louisville Cardinals (-) @ Notre Dame @ 7 PM ET – This is a classic case of “hot versus not”. What’s interesting here is you would have never expected to see a line like this earlier in the season as Notre Dame has such a solid history at home. However, times change and if you don’t keep up with the times you lose! We’re speaking from the sports betting “perspective” there as this Irish team certainly doesn’t merit that much more respect here even though they’re on their home floor. They’ve lost seven straight games and two of those were at home. We love the fact that we’re able to get a short number of points to lay with Louisville, the far superior team, just because they’re on the road in this match-up. The key here is defense. The Cardinals play it and the Fighting Irish don’t!
Notre Dame has allowed at least 87 points in five of their last seven games. That is simply amazing as this is not the NBA folks! To be giving up that many points in College Hoops is a real issue! The streak of defensive demise – and Notre Dame’s current seven game losing streak – started with a loss at Louisville. While it’s true that the 87 to 73 loss to the Cardinals was an overtime game, it’s also true that the Cards held Notre Dame to just two points in overtime while Louisville scored 16 and got the win. Once again, it’s evident who has the superior defense in this match-up. The Cardinals are 10-1 in their last 11 games and the only loss was to Connecticut! Of course the Huskies are currently the top team in the country and Notre Dame is not on par with that team. The Cardinals defensive numbers are in stark contrast with how the Irish have performed lately. The most points that Louisville has allowed, in going 18-4 this season, is 75 points. Only FOUR times this season has Louisville allowed more than 68 points in a game! As for Notre Dame, they give up an AVERAGE of 73 points per game on the season!
Even though the Irish took this match-up to overtime in the first meeting between these teams, note that the Cardinals had edges in rebounds, blocked shots, and steals. Truly the only reason the game wasn’t more of a blowout in regulation is because the Irish made 9 of 20 three pointers while the Cardinals only made 10 of 30 from downtown. Overall, the Irish are the better team from 3-point land but it’s normally not that pronounced and the Cardinals have shown the ability to rely on their defense – as they did at St John’s on Sunday – when their offense is not clicking. Of the 18 wins the Cardinals have this season, only two have come by less than six points. Those were against Kentucky and Villanova. Both these teams are superior to the Irish. As for Notre Dame, all their losses have come by at least five points and many have been blowout defeats. We have no qualms about laying the short number here with the Cardinals. Luke Harangody will be the focus of the Cardinals defense and we saw at UCLA what happens to the Irish (a 26 point loss!) when Harangody is shut down. The only other guy to score in double digits when Notre Dame first met Louisville was Kyle McAlarney. However, McAlarney has only made 17 of 60 (28%) of his field goal attempts in his last five games and this has played a key role in the demise of the Irish. That’s another reason their losing streak continues here. Play Louisville minus the points as a regular selection.
Scott Rickenbach
REASON FOR PICK: Scott Rickenbach’s NHL 1* (regular play) Vancouver Canucks Money Line (-) @ Phoenix @ 9:05 PM ET – My analysis will be posted here between 3 PM and 4 PM ET. However, I feel the best value we’re going to see with this late night play is early this afternoon. That’s why I am first posting this without the write-up. My recommendation is to play this one as early as you can and then please check back for the details. Thanks and best of luck – Scott Rickenbach
Scott Rickenbach’s College Hoops Game #751 - 1* (regular play) Southern Cal Trojans (+) @ Arizona @ 10:30 PM ET – Under coach Tim Floyd, the Trojans have a history of performing very well as an underdog in Pac Ten action. We get another fantastic opportunity to ride that streak here. The Trojans are coming off of an embarrassing loss at UCLA in their last game. They’ve had over a week to “stew” about that loss and that means when they take the court tonight there is going to be tremendous mental and physical energy coming from USC. Before that loss to the Bruins, Southern Cal was a very impressive 15-6 on the season. Five of those six losses had come by an average margin of just 3 points per game. That easily “gets us into the game” here as the Trojans tremendous defense has kept them in all but two games out of 22 games this season! The key tonight is that USC is so hungry they will not be denied in this spot.
Before their loss to UCLA, the Trojans had held ten of their last twelve opponents to 64 points or less! As for Arizona, the Wildcats have allowed four of their last eight opponents to score at least 77 points! Yes, Arizona has won five straight games but, prior to this, the Cats had gone just 6-7 in their previous 13 games. This truly is very much a mediocre Pac Ten team. The Wildcats last three wins have all come against three of the worst teams in the conference. Their prior two wins including a non-conference opponent, Houston, and also a big win over the Huskies. Yes, beating Washington was somewhat impressive but they did give up 97 points in that game. The Wildcats got 51 free throw attempts in that game. That is ridiculous and they won the game despite getting outscored 84 to 65 from the field. That’s not going to happen very often. In their win over Houston they allowed 90 points!
The coaching edge also goes to USC in this match-up with Floyd going against interim coach Russ Pennell. The first match-up between these teams was a tight win for USC but they had five more field goal attempts and nine more free throw attempts. It was only a strong shooting performance from Arizona that kept the game close. The Trojans should give a much stronger defensive effort here. This is especially true with coming off of the loss at UCLA that was such an ugly one. The reserves ended up playing a lot of minutes in that game and the Trojans starters will come back hungrier than ever as they seek, and get, a big road win here! Play Southern Cal plus the points as a regular selection.
REASON FOR PICK: NBA 1* (regular play) Chicago Bulls (-) vs Miami @ 7:05 PM ET – In the long grind of an NBA season, it is important for a capper to focus in on games where there are special edges. Let’s face it, the odds makers do a rock solid job on most games so the key is finding those games where there is a stronger edge than one would normally expect to find. That is the case here with the Bulls. Chicago has not forgotten losing at Miami in their first match-up this season. That occurred in late December and the Bulls felt disrespected when the Heat called a timeout with just 30 seconds left and a 13 point lead. They used the time out to pull Dwyane Wade, Udonis Haslem, and Mario Chalmers from the game. However, the Bulls definitely felt it was not necessary and was simply a way for the Heat to “rub salt in the wound” in what was already a dominating effort for Miami. Bulls coach Vinny Del Negro was quoted after the game as saying “we’ll play them again”. That time has come!
On Thursday in Chicago on TNT, the Bulls get a chance to execute payback and they won’t let it pass them by. The key here is that the Heat have been struggling badly. Miami has lost five of their last seven and a big problem has been having to rely too much on Wade. He’s the only guy giving steady contributions in many games. That’s a big problem in this match-up because the Chicago native actually hasn’t played well at the United Center. In his last five games there Wade is averaging 16.6 points on just 36.1 percent shooting! Look for the other Chicago native on the floor tonight, Derrick Rose, to key the Bulls victory here. Rose has come a long way since that game at Miami. The Bulls have won five of their last seven and, over the last seven weeks, Rose has impressed more and more with each passing week. He’s averaged 18.4 points on 57.1 percent shooting in his last seven games. Also, Rose has 47 assists versus just 14 turnovers during this stretch.
While the Bulls had to rally to win their last game (versus the Pistons) it is the growth of Rose that helped the Bulls have that strong game-ending run. Those are the kind of strong finishes that build confidence and this Chicago team has come a long way compared to where they were the last time they faced the Heat. In the first match-up, Luol Deng got hurt during the game and Larry Hughes and Aaron Gray were both playing significant roles. Now Deng is healthy and Hughes and Gray weren’t even in the box score of the Bulls win over Detroit Tuesday. Also, Kirk Hinrich is now back for Chicago and Joakim Noah has become a big contributor. This is a classic case of two teams going in opposite directions and the added incentive for the Bulls here made it a definite play for us! Play Chicago minus the points as a regular selection
Scott Rickenbach’s College Hoops Game #707 - 1* (regular play) Louisville Cardinals (-) @ Notre Dame @ 7 PM ET – This is a classic case of “hot versus not”. What’s interesting here is you would have never expected to see a line like this earlier in the season as Notre Dame has such a solid history at home. However, times change and if you don’t keep up with the times you lose! We’re speaking from the sports betting “perspective” there as this Irish team certainly doesn’t merit that much more respect here even though they’re on their home floor. They’ve lost seven straight games and two of those were at home. We love the fact that we’re able to get a short number of points to lay with Louisville, the far superior team, just because they’re on the road in this match-up. The key here is defense. The Cardinals play it and the Fighting Irish don’t!
Notre Dame has allowed at least 87 points in five of their last seven games. That is simply amazing as this is not the NBA folks! To be giving up that many points in College Hoops is a real issue! The streak of defensive demise – and Notre Dame’s current seven game losing streak – started with a loss at Louisville. While it’s true that the 87 to 73 loss to the Cardinals was an overtime game, it’s also true that the Cards held Notre Dame to just two points in overtime while Louisville scored 16 and got the win. Once again, it’s evident who has the superior defense in this match-up. The Cardinals are 10-1 in their last 11 games and the only loss was to Connecticut! Of course the Huskies are currently the top team in the country and Notre Dame is not on par with that team. The Cardinals defensive numbers are in stark contrast with how the Irish have performed lately. The most points that Louisville has allowed, in going 18-4 this season, is 75 points. Only FOUR times this season has Louisville allowed more than 68 points in a game! As for Notre Dame, they give up an AVERAGE of 73 points per game on the season!
Even though the Irish took this match-up to overtime in the first meeting between these teams, note that the Cardinals had edges in rebounds, blocked shots, and steals. Truly the only reason the game wasn’t more of a blowout in regulation is because the Irish made 9 of 20 three pointers while the Cardinals only made 10 of 30 from downtown. Overall, the Irish are the better team from 3-point land but it’s normally not that pronounced and the Cardinals have shown the ability to rely on their defense – as they did at St John’s on Sunday – when their offense is not clicking. Of the 18 wins the Cardinals have this season, only two have come by less than six points. Those were against Kentucky and Villanova. Both these teams are superior to the Irish. As for Notre Dame, all their losses have come by at least five points and many have been blowout defeats. We have no qualms about laying the short number here with the Cardinals. Luke Harangody will be the focus of the Cardinals defense and we saw at UCLA what happens to the Irish (a 26 point loss!) when Harangody is shut down. The only other guy to score in double digits when Notre Dame first met Louisville was Kyle McAlarney. However, McAlarney has only made 17 of 60 (28%) of his field goal attempts in his last five games and this has played a key role in the demise of the Irish. That’s another reason their losing streak continues here. Play Louisville minus the points as a regular selection.
Scott Rickenbach
REASON FOR PICK: Scott Rickenbach’s NHL 1* (regular play) Vancouver Canucks Money Line (-) @ Phoenix @ 9:05 PM ET – My analysis will be posted here between 3 PM and 4 PM ET. However, I feel the best value we’re going to see with this late night play is early this afternoon. That’s why I am first posting this without the write-up. My recommendation is to play this one as early as you can and then please check back for the details. Thanks and best of luck – Scott Rickenbach
Scott Rickenbach’s College Hoops Game #751 - 1* (regular play) Southern Cal Trojans (+) @ Arizona @ 10:30 PM ET – Under coach Tim Floyd, the Trojans have a history of performing very well as an underdog in Pac Ten action. We get another fantastic opportunity to ride that streak here. The Trojans are coming off of an embarrassing loss at UCLA in their last game. They’ve had over a week to “stew” about that loss and that means when they take the court tonight there is going to be tremendous mental and physical energy coming from USC. Before that loss to the Bruins, Southern Cal was a very impressive 15-6 on the season. Five of those six losses had come by an average margin of just 3 points per game. That easily “gets us into the game” here as the Trojans tremendous defense has kept them in all but two games out of 22 games this season! The key tonight is that USC is so hungry they will not be denied in this spot.
Before their loss to UCLA, the Trojans had held ten of their last twelve opponents to 64 points or less! As for Arizona, the Wildcats have allowed four of their last eight opponents to score at least 77 points! Yes, Arizona has won five straight games but, prior to this, the Cats had gone just 6-7 in their previous 13 games. This truly is very much a mediocre Pac Ten team. The Wildcats last three wins have all come against three of the worst teams in the conference. Their prior two wins including a non-conference opponent, Houston, and also a big win over the Huskies. Yes, beating Washington was somewhat impressive but they did give up 97 points in that game. The Wildcats got 51 free throw attempts in that game. That is ridiculous and they won the game despite getting outscored 84 to 65 from the field. That’s not going to happen very often. In their win over Houston they allowed 90 points!
The coaching edge also goes to USC in this match-up with Floyd going against interim coach Russ Pennell. The first match-up between these teams was a tight win for USC but they had five more field goal attempts and nine more free throw attempts. It was only a strong shooting performance from Arizona that kept the game close. The Trojans should give a much stronger defensive effort here. This is especially true with coming off of the loss at UCLA that was such an ugly one. The reserves ended up playing a lot of minutes in that game and the Trojans starters will come back hungrier than ever as they seek, and get, a big road win here! Play Southern Cal plus the points as a regular selection.
OLÉ
Copa Libertadores
Deportivo Quito vs. U. de Sucre Play under 2.5 -150
Match between champion of Bolivia and champion of Ecuador´s soccer league. After 11 years, D. Quito is returning to the Copa Libertadores, facing a U. de Sucre (first time in this competition). Quito will be playing a 5-4-1 formation as they always do and already told by their coach and Sucre may use a conservative 4-4-2 formation at home. Why is Quito doing this? They are using only one forward here, Martin Mandra to attack , cause is so difficult to play at the Patria de Sucre Stadium wich is 8462 ft. high, its tough to play at this altitude. Quito will be defending most of the game time waiting for a shot of luck to score. Expect a low scoring game.
Good luck.
Copa Libertadores
Deportivo Quito vs. U. de Sucre Play under 2.5 -150
Match between champion of Bolivia and champion of Ecuador´s soccer league. After 11 years, D. Quito is returning to the Copa Libertadores, facing a U. de Sucre (first time in this competition). Quito will be playing a 5-4-1 formation as they always do and already told by their coach and Sucre may use a conservative 4-4-2 formation at home. Why is Quito doing this? They are using only one forward here, Martin Mandra to attack , cause is so difficult to play at the Patria de Sucre Stadium wich is 8462 ft. high, its tough to play at this altitude. Quito will be defending most of the game time waiting for a shot of luck to score. Expect a low scoring game.
Good luck.
ANNIHILATOR
I'm playing on Portland and Golden State to finish UNDER the total. The reason that we have such a high over/under line here is because the Warriors score the second most points (most at home) in the league and because they also give up the most. That was on display in the Warriors' last game, as they combined with the Knicks to score a whopping 271 points. However, the Knicks are a team cut from the same mold as the Warriors, as they like to run up and down the floor and don't care much for playing defense. Note that even with that result, the UNDER remains a profitable 7-3 the last 10 Golden State games. Unlike the Knicks, the Blazers are a team which is capable of playing excellent defense. Heading into last night's game, the were allowing 95.2 points per game. Therefore, it was no surprise that they limited Oklahoma City to only 92. The 96.8 points per game which they allow on the road is the third best mark in the Western Conference, seventh best in the league. Looking back at Portland's last 20 games and we find that only two of them produced greater than 217 combined points. While both earlier meetings finished above the total, the UNDER remains a highly profitable 13-5 the last 18 meetings in this series. Note that NONE of those 20 meetings had an over/under line as high as tonight's number. The highest over/under line of those 20 games was one of 214.5 in 2007. This year's earlier two games had totals of 205.5 and 209 points. Tonight's number is significantly higher, which gives us plenty of room to work with. Note that the Blazers have seen the UNDER go 5-2 the last seven times that they played a game with an over/under line of 210 or great, including a 4-1 mark in five road games. Look for them to do their best to slow down their hosts and for the final combined score to find its way beneath the generous number. *Annihilator
INDIAN COWBOY SELECTION: 2 Unit Play. #706. Take Golden State Warriors -3.5 over Portland Trailblazers (Thursday @ 10:35pm est). Congrats on the Nuggets Outright last night at Orlando. Regardless of what happens today considering this is a 2* selection we will have our 8th straight winning week this week. But, I would love to hit this play as it will allow us to go 3-1 overall on the week and enable us to secure even more profit this week. The line has steadily increased for this game and it should not come as a surprise. For starters, the Trailblazers come off a big win last night and cover against OKC. After all, they had revenge against the Thunder and they got it done. Well, now, the Warriors have revenge against this tem from an earlier season loss. Given the style of play the Warriors play anyway which is an up and down style of play, they certainly will have their legs underneath them and the Blazers will not. Let's not forget, this is the same Blazer team that fell to the Thunder handily on the road and this is the same Warrior team that beat the Jazz, Celtics, Suns and nearly the Cavs by losing 1 point at home. Let's ride GS here with GS as they are rested, have revenge, have covered their last 4 at home against the likes of the Jazz, Knicks, Clippers and even the Spurs who they ended up losing to in OT. Let's ride the W's as they are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games at home and the Blazers are just 4-11 ATS in their last 15 road games.
