M ..................Lawr..........en**
14-0 ATS College Hoops Revenge Game Of The Week!
Play On: Providence + 2.5 Points
Villanova 94 Providence 91
Note: The Friars host the Wildcats in a key Big East battle with both teams coming off disparate results. That occurred when Providence dropped a 94-61 decision to top ranked Connecticut last Saturday while Villanova clobbered Cincinnati, 71-50, on Sunday. That sets the table for today's game as the Wildcats enter knowing they are 1-10 ATS in games off a win of 18 or more points when facing an opponent playing with revenge off a loss. On the flip side, the Friars are 8-1 ATS in this series when playing with 3 or more days of rest with revenge, including 5-0 SU and ATS at home. In addition, the underdog is 6-0 ATS in this series. With that, look for Villanova to dip to 0-4 ATS in games after the Bearcats. Providence is our College Basketball Revenge Game of the Week.
14-0 ATS College Hoops Revenge Game Of The Week!
Play On: Providence + 2.5 Points
Villanova 94 Providence 91
Note: The Friars host the Wildcats in a key Big East battle with both teams coming off disparate results. That occurred when Providence dropped a 94-61 decision to top ranked Connecticut last Saturday while Villanova clobbered Cincinnati, 71-50, on Sunday. That sets the table for today's game as the Wildcats enter knowing they are 1-10 ATS in games off a win of 18 or more points when facing an opponent playing with revenge off a loss. On the flip side, the Friars are 8-1 ATS in this series when playing with 3 or more days of rest with revenge, including 5-0 SU and ATS at home. In addition, the underdog is 6-0 ATS in this series. With that, look for Villanova to dip to 0-4 ATS in games after the Bearcats. Providence is our College Basketball Revenge Game of the Week.
THE SPORTS ADVISORS
(23) Illinois (18-4, 11-6-1 ATS) at Wisconsin (12-9, 7-11-1 ATS)
Illinois, which has dropped its last three on the road, heads to the Kohl Center in Madison for a Big Ten meeting with freefalling Wisconsin.
The Fighting Illini bounced back from an embarrassing 59-36 beatdown at Minnesota and topped Iowa 62-54 Sunday, failing to cover as an 11½-point chalk. For the season, Illinois has averaged 67.8 ppg, more than 11 points better than its opposition (56.6). But on the road, the Illini are scoring 59.4 ppg on just 39.4 percent shooting, while allowing 65.2 ppg (42.1 percent).
The Badgers tumbled to Northwestern 66-63 Saturday as a one-point road pup for their sixth consecutive setback (0-5-1 ATS, all in the Big Ten), falling to a team they had beaten by 29 points three weeks earlier at home. Wisconsin, which has typically been stingy on defense, has allowed 61.8 ppg this season, but that number has gone up to 69.0 over the past five games, contributing to its current slide.
Since opening Big Ten play with a 71-67 overtime win at Purdue, Illinois has lost three straight conference road games (1-2 ATS). Meanwhile, the Badgers won three straight games (2-1 ATS) to start the conference season, but have followed up with their current six-game winning streak, going 0-2 SU and ATS at home.
Wisconsin is 5-1 SU (4-1-1 ATS) in the last six meetings with Illinois, though the Illini won 64-57 at home two weeks ago and pushed as a seven-point chalk. The favorite is 4-1-1 ATS in the last six contests, and the road team is on a 7-3-1 ATS run.
The Fighting Illini are on a 2-8 ATS slide in Thursday games, but they are otherwise on positive ATS surges of 5-2 on the road, 5-1 after a non-cover, 12-5-1 against winning teams and 4-0 as an underdog of three points or more. The Badgers are 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 games following an ATS loss, but they are on a bundle of pointspread declines, including 0-4-1 after a SU loss, 0-5-1 against winning teams and 1-4 at home.
The under for Illinois is on runs of 5-1 overall (all in the Big Ten) and 4-0 after a SU win, but the over is on a 9-2 run in Thursday games for the Illini. The over for Wisconsin is on rolls of 4-1 overall, 5-1 at home and 5-1 after a SU loss, but the under is 6-2 in the Badgers’ last eight Thursday starts. Finally, the under is 6-3 in the last nine in this rivalry, including 2-0 in the last two.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
(22) Washington (16-5, 12-7 ATS) at California (16-6, 11-8 ATS)
Washington, coming off a two-game swing in Arizona last week, remains on the road for two more games this week in the Bay Area, starting with this contest against California.
The Huskies earned a split in the desert, losing a shootout to Arizona 106-97 as a one-point chalk last Thursday, then bouncing back with Saturday’s 84-71 victory over Arizona State as a five-point underdog. Washington has won five of its last six games (4-2 ATS) and 14 of its last 16, scoring more than 80 points 12 of the last 15 contests. During their current 5-1 run, the Huskies are outscoring foes by an average of 10.5 ppg (85.7-75.2).
The Golden Bears dropped both their games on last week’s swing through Los Angeles, falling 81-66 at UCLA last Thursday as a 10-point pup and 73-62 at Southern Cal on Saturday as a five-point pup. California has followed up a nine-game SU and eight-game ATS winning streak by going 1-4 SU and 0-5 ATS in their last five. The Bears are averaging 75.3 ppg for the season, but in the past five games, they’ve reached that just once, averaging 67.6 ppg while allowing 73.4.
Washington is 7-2 SU and 5-4 ATS in the Pac-10, including 4-1 SU and ATS on the road, while the Bears have dropped to 5-4 SU and 4-5 ATS in league play (3-1, 2-2 ATS at home).
Cal is on a 3-1 SU and ATS run in this rivalry, including an 88-85 overtime victory as a six-point road ‘dog last month. The Bears are 4-1-1 ATS in the last six clashes, but the visitor is 3-0-1 ATS in the last four.
The Huskies are on ATS runs of 5-1 on the highway and 4-1 in roadies against teams with a winning home record. The Golden Bears are on a 6-2 ATS run at home and are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games against winning teams, but their current five-game ATS slide has all come in Pac-10 play, and they are 2-6 ATS in their last eight Thursday games.
The over for Washington is on rolls of 8-0 overall, 4-0 on the road, 14-2 in Pac-10 play, 6-0 after a SU win, 4-0 on Thursday and 4-0 against winning teams. Likewise, the over for Cal is on stretches of 4-0 against winning teams, 8-2 on Thursday, 20-6 in the Pac-10 and 25-12 overall. Finally, the total has gone high in each of the last four contests in this rivalry.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
NBA
L.A. Lakers (39-9, 25-23 ATS) at Boston (41-9, 28-22 ATS)
The Celtics shoot for their 13th straight victory when they host the Lakers inside TD Banknorth Garden in this rematch of last season’s NBA championship series.
Los Angeles is a perfect 4-0 SU and ATS on its current six-game road trip after beating the Raptors 115-107 on Wednesday as a 7½-point favorite. The Lakers’ offense has been unstoppable lately, scoring at least 110 points in each of their last five, while averaging 116.4 points and 49.9 percent shooting during this stretch. L.A. has won eight of its last nine and cashed in nine of its last 13.
Boston edged the Sixers 100-99 on Monday, coming up short as a three-point road chalk. The Celtics have failed to cover the number in either of their last two after getting the cash in eight straight. The two-game ATS skid coincides with Kevin Garnett being sidelined with the flu, but the Celtics’ forward is expected to be in the lineup tonight.
These two teams have gone about their success differently this season with the Celtics relying on defense while the Lakers are scoring in bunches. Boston allows 91.5 ppg while the Lakers are giving up and even 100 ppg this year. But Los Angeles scores 108.7 per contest with the Celtics putting up 101.3 ppg.
The classic rivals met on Christmas Day in Los Angeles with the Lakers dominating the final five minutes en route to a 92-83 victory as two-point favorites. The spread-cover snapped an 8-0 ATS run for the Celtics in this rivalry, including Boston’s 6-0 ATS run in last season’s NBA Finals. Los Angeles has come up empty, both SU and ATS, in its last four trips to Beantown.
The Lakers are riding positive ATS streaks that include 6-1 overall, 6-1 on the road, 12-4-1 as underdogs (3-0 as a pup this season), 16-5-2 as road ‘dogs, 8-2 on Thursdays and 5-1 against the Atlantic Division. The Celtics are also on a plethora of ATS runs, including 4-1 at home, 24-10 against Western Conference opposition, 7-2 as a favorite and 19-7 at home against teams with a winning road record.
Los Angeles has stayed below the total in nine of its last 12 as an underdog, but the otherwise the team is on “over” on streaks of 5-0 overall, 7-0 on the road, 8-1 against the Atlantic Division and 16-6 against the Eastern Conference. For the Celtics, the over is 5-1 in their last six at home and 4-1 in their last five overall, but the under is 11-4-1 in their last 16 against the Western Conference, 9-4 when playing after one day off and 4-1 in their last five against the Pacific Division.
ATS ADVANTAGE: BOSTON
Dallas (29-19, 23-25 ATS) at Utah (27-22, 24-25 ATS)
The struggling Jazz welcome the Mavericks to Salt Lake City and will try to snap Dallas’ four-game winning streak.
Dallas continued its winning ways Wednesday, holding off Portland 104-99 and narrowly cashing as 3½-point favorites. The Mavs have cashed in all four games during their winning streak and are 4-2 SU and ATS in their last six on the highway. Dallas has stepped up the offense, averaging 109.8 ppg on 52.5 percent shooting over its last six outings, reaching triple digits in each contest.
Utah has dropped five of its last seven both SU and ATS, and the Jazz are 2-7 ATS in their last nine overall. However, the Jazz looked solid in Monday’s 105-86 home win over the Bobcats, cashing as seven-point favorites. They are just 2-2 SU and ATS in their last four home games.
Utah has dominated this rivalry at home, going 10-1-1 ATS in the last 12 meetings in Salt Lake City, including a 97-88 win back on Dec. 26, covering as a two-point favorite. Dallas got revenge in a 115-108 win on Jan. 17 in Texas, getting the cash as a five-point chalk. The Jazz are 6-2-1 ATS in the last eight meetings overall, and the home team is 20-7-1 in the last 28 series clashes.
Dallas is on ATS slides of 7-21-1 on Thursdays, 4-11 against Northwest Division foes and 4-9-1 when playing the second night of a back-to-back. However, the Mavs are 7-2 ATS in their last nine overall and 5-2 ATS in their last seven on the road. Utah is 20-9 ATS in its last 29 against the Southwest Division, but it is mired in pointspread slumps of 5-11 on Thursdays, 1-6 against Western Conference rivals and 0-6 against teams with a winning record.
The Mavericks have stayed under the posted total in 55 of their last 81 games against the Northwest Division, but the over is 4-1 in their last five roadies and 9-4 in their last 13 against teams with a winning record. For Utah, the under is 7-3 in its last 10 Thursday affairs and 7-3 in its last 10 games after two days off, but the over is 14-4 in its last 18 overall and 10-3 in its last 13 games against Western Conference teams. Finally, the under is 7-2 in the last nine head-to-head meetings in Utah.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
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(23) Illinois (18-4, 11-6-1 ATS) at Wisconsin (12-9, 7-11-1 ATS)
Illinois, which has dropped its last three on the road, heads to the Kohl Center in Madison for a Big Ten meeting with freefalling Wisconsin.
The Fighting Illini bounced back from an embarrassing 59-36 beatdown at Minnesota and topped Iowa 62-54 Sunday, failing to cover as an 11½-point chalk. For the season, Illinois has averaged 67.8 ppg, more than 11 points better than its opposition (56.6). But on the road, the Illini are scoring 59.4 ppg on just 39.4 percent shooting, while allowing 65.2 ppg (42.1 percent).
The Badgers tumbled to Northwestern 66-63 Saturday as a one-point road pup for their sixth consecutive setback (0-5-1 ATS, all in the Big Ten), falling to a team they had beaten by 29 points three weeks earlier at home. Wisconsin, which has typically been stingy on defense, has allowed 61.8 ppg this season, but that number has gone up to 69.0 over the past five games, contributing to its current slide.
Since opening Big Ten play with a 71-67 overtime win at Purdue, Illinois has lost three straight conference road games (1-2 ATS). Meanwhile, the Badgers won three straight games (2-1 ATS) to start the conference season, but have followed up with their current six-game winning streak, going 0-2 SU and ATS at home.
Wisconsin is 5-1 SU (4-1-1 ATS) in the last six meetings with Illinois, though the Illini won 64-57 at home two weeks ago and pushed as a seven-point chalk. The favorite is 4-1-1 ATS in the last six contests, and the road team is on a 7-3-1 ATS run.
The Fighting Illini are on a 2-8 ATS slide in Thursday games, but they are otherwise on positive ATS surges of 5-2 on the road, 5-1 after a non-cover, 12-5-1 against winning teams and 4-0 as an underdog of three points or more. The Badgers are 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 games following an ATS loss, but they are on a bundle of pointspread declines, including 0-4-1 after a SU loss, 0-5-1 against winning teams and 1-4 at home.
The under for Illinois is on runs of 5-1 overall (all in the Big Ten) and 4-0 after a SU win, but the over is on a 9-2 run in Thursday games for the Illini. The over for Wisconsin is on rolls of 4-1 overall, 5-1 at home and 5-1 after a SU loss, but the under is 6-2 in the Badgers’ last eight Thursday starts. Finally, the under is 6-3 in the last nine in this rivalry, including 2-0 in the last two.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
(22) Washington (16-5, 12-7 ATS) at California (16-6, 11-8 ATS)
Washington, coming off a two-game swing in Arizona last week, remains on the road for two more games this week in the Bay Area, starting with this contest against California.
The Huskies earned a split in the desert, losing a shootout to Arizona 106-97 as a one-point chalk last Thursday, then bouncing back with Saturday’s 84-71 victory over Arizona State as a five-point underdog. Washington has won five of its last six games (4-2 ATS) and 14 of its last 16, scoring more than 80 points 12 of the last 15 contests. During their current 5-1 run, the Huskies are outscoring foes by an average of 10.5 ppg (85.7-75.2).
The Golden Bears dropped both their games on last week’s swing through Los Angeles, falling 81-66 at UCLA last Thursday as a 10-point pup and 73-62 at Southern Cal on Saturday as a five-point pup. California has followed up a nine-game SU and eight-game ATS winning streak by going 1-4 SU and 0-5 ATS in their last five. The Bears are averaging 75.3 ppg for the season, but in the past five games, they’ve reached that just once, averaging 67.6 ppg while allowing 73.4.
Washington is 7-2 SU and 5-4 ATS in the Pac-10, including 4-1 SU and ATS on the road, while the Bears have dropped to 5-4 SU and 4-5 ATS in league play (3-1, 2-2 ATS at home).
Cal is on a 3-1 SU and ATS run in this rivalry, including an 88-85 overtime victory as a six-point road ‘dog last month. The Bears are 4-1-1 ATS in the last six clashes, but the visitor is 3-0-1 ATS in the last four.
The Huskies are on ATS runs of 5-1 on the highway and 4-1 in roadies against teams with a winning home record. The Golden Bears are on a 6-2 ATS run at home and are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games against winning teams, but their current five-game ATS slide has all come in Pac-10 play, and they are 2-6 ATS in their last eight Thursday games.
The over for Washington is on rolls of 8-0 overall, 4-0 on the road, 14-2 in Pac-10 play, 6-0 after a SU win, 4-0 on Thursday and 4-0 against winning teams. Likewise, the over for Cal is on stretches of 4-0 against winning teams, 8-2 on Thursday, 20-6 in the Pac-10 and 25-12 overall. Finally, the total has gone high in each of the last four contests in this rivalry.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
NBA
L.A. Lakers (39-9, 25-23 ATS) at Boston (41-9, 28-22 ATS)
The Celtics shoot for their 13th straight victory when they host the Lakers inside TD Banknorth Garden in this rematch of last season’s NBA championship series.
Los Angeles is a perfect 4-0 SU and ATS on its current six-game road trip after beating the Raptors 115-107 on Wednesday as a 7½-point favorite. The Lakers’ offense has been unstoppable lately, scoring at least 110 points in each of their last five, while averaging 116.4 points and 49.9 percent shooting during this stretch. L.A. has won eight of its last nine and cashed in nine of its last 13.
Boston edged the Sixers 100-99 on Monday, coming up short as a three-point road chalk. The Celtics have failed to cover the number in either of their last two after getting the cash in eight straight. The two-game ATS skid coincides with Kevin Garnett being sidelined with the flu, but the Celtics’ forward is expected to be in the lineup tonight.
These two teams have gone about their success differently this season with the Celtics relying on defense while the Lakers are scoring in bunches. Boston allows 91.5 ppg while the Lakers are giving up and even 100 ppg this year. But Los Angeles scores 108.7 per contest with the Celtics putting up 101.3 ppg.
The classic rivals met on Christmas Day in Los Angeles with the Lakers dominating the final five minutes en route to a 92-83 victory as two-point favorites. The spread-cover snapped an 8-0 ATS run for the Celtics in this rivalry, including Boston’s 6-0 ATS run in last season’s NBA Finals. Los Angeles has come up empty, both SU and ATS, in its last four trips to Beantown.
The Lakers are riding positive ATS streaks that include 6-1 overall, 6-1 on the road, 12-4-1 as underdogs (3-0 as a pup this season), 16-5-2 as road ‘dogs, 8-2 on Thursdays and 5-1 against the Atlantic Division. The Celtics are also on a plethora of ATS runs, including 4-1 at home, 24-10 against Western Conference opposition, 7-2 as a favorite and 19-7 at home against teams with a winning road record.
Los Angeles has stayed below the total in nine of its last 12 as an underdog, but the otherwise the team is on “over” on streaks of 5-0 overall, 7-0 on the road, 8-1 against the Atlantic Division and 16-6 against the Eastern Conference. For the Celtics, the over is 5-1 in their last six at home and 4-1 in their last five overall, but the under is 11-4-1 in their last 16 against the Western Conference, 9-4 when playing after one day off and 4-1 in their last five against the Pacific Division.
ATS ADVANTAGE: BOSTON
Dallas (29-19, 23-25 ATS) at Utah (27-22, 24-25 ATS)
The struggling Jazz welcome the Mavericks to Salt Lake City and will try to snap Dallas’ four-game winning streak.
Dallas continued its winning ways Wednesday, holding off Portland 104-99 and narrowly cashing as 3½-point favorites. The Mavs have cashed in all four games during their winning streak and are 4-2 SU and ATS in their last six on the highway. Dallas has stepped up the offense, averaging 109.8 ppg on 52.5 percent shooting over its last six outings, reaching triple digits in each contest.
Utah has dropped five of its last seven both SU and ATS, and the Jazz are 2-7 ATS in their last nine overall. However, the Jazz looked solid in Monday’s 105-86 home win over the Bobcats, cashing as seven-point favorites. They are just 2-2 SU and ATS in their last four home games.
Utah has dominated this rivalry at home, going 10-1-1 ATS in the last 12 meetings in Salt Lake City, including a 97-88 win back on Dec. 26, covering as a two-point favorite. Dallas got revenge in a 115-108 win on Jan. 17 in Texas, getting the cash as a five-point chalk. The Jazz are 6-2-1 ATS in the last eight meetings overall, and the home team is 20-7-1 in the last 28 series clashes.
Dallas is on ATS slides of 7-21-1 on Thursdays, 4-11 against Northwest Division foes and 4-9-1 when playing the second night of a back-to-back. However, the Mavs are 7-2 ATS in their last nine overall and 5-2 ATS in their last seven on the road. Utah is 20-9 ATS in its last 29 against the Southwest Division, but it is mired in pointspread slumps of 5-11 on Thursdays, 1-6 against Western Conference rivals and 0-6 against teams with a winning record.
The Mavericks have stayed under the posted total in 55 of their last 81 games against the Northwest Division, but the over is 4-1 in their last five roadies and 9-4 in their last 13 against teams with a winning record. For Utah, the under is 7-3 in its last 10 Thursday affairs and 7-3 in its last 10 games after two days off, but the over is 14-4 in its last 18 overall and 10-3 in its last 13 games against Western Conference teams. Finally, the under is 7-2 in the last nine head-to-head meetings in Utah.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
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Handicapping and Systems Analysis, 2/5
Lakers (38-10) @ Boston (41-9)
This is the rematch of the season for the Celtics. After the Lakers broke these C's last Christmas (which they had a nasty 2-7 SU in that span after that game), the Celtics have regained their swagger and are now seeking the ultimate form of revenge. In sports handicapping, one has to consider if a team has the motivation and ability to cover the spread. The motivation for the C's is undeniable, but the ability is not so apparent. But, if one looks at the recent history between these two teams, the C's are actually 8-2 ATS over these Lakers (6-4 SU). This is the perfect storm for a Celtics blowout. Schedule-wise, the C's are playing their 4th game in 7 days (having this series: game, 1 day rest, game, 1 day rest, game, 1 day rest, and this game). The Lakers on the other hand will have their 5th game in 7 days (having this series, game, game, 1 day rest, game, 1 day rest, game, and this game). Clearly the Lakers will be in their 2nd back to back in the past 7 days. Fatigue will be an issue. Thus, with motivation for the C's, the ability to cover against the Lakers, the scheduling mismatch, and Bynum's loss for the Lakers all equal a complete blowout by the Celtics on national television. The Celtics make a statement tonite.
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Lakers (38-10) @ Boston (41-9)
This is the rematch of the season for the Celtics. After the Lakers broke these C's last Christmas (which they had a nasty 2-7 SU in that span after that game), the Celtics have regained their swagger and are now seeking the ultimate form of revenge. In sports handicapping, one has to consider if a team has the motivation and ability to cover the spread. The motivation for the C's is undeniable, but the ability is not so apparent. But, if one looks at the recent history between these two teams, the C's are actually 8-2 ATS over these Lakers (6-4 SU). This is the perfect storm for a Celtics blowout. Schedule-wise, the C's are playing their 4th game in 7 days (having this series: game, 1 day rest, game, 1 day rest, game, 1 day rest, and this game). The Lakers on the other hand will have their 5th game in 7 days (having this series, game, game, 1 day rest, game, 1 day rest, game, and this game). Clearly the Lakers will be in their 2nd back to back in the past 7 days. Fatigue will be an issue. Thus, with motivation for the C's, the ability to cover against the Lakers, the scheduling mismatch, and Bynum's loss for the Lakers all equal a complete blowout by the Celtics on national television. The Celtics make a statement tonite.
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Matt Fargo
Northern Illinois vs. Ohio (NCAAB)
Feb 5, 2009 7:00 PM EST
Play: Ohio
I went against Northern Illinois on Saturday and that paid off with a win for Bowling Green. Right now, this young team is struggling mightily. The Huskies are 2-5 in the MAC but those wins came against Eastern Michigan and Toledo who are a combined 3-13 in the MAC and 7-37 overall. The best win this season for Northern Illinois came against Indiana St. of all teams and the Sycamores are ranked 238th in the nation. The other five wins came against teams ranked 259th, 320th, 279th and 311th along with Division II team Alaska-Anchorage. Northern Illinois is 5-4 at home but again the wins were not good but the losses were even worse as it dropped those four games by 13, 10, 15 and eight points. The road has been even worse as the Huskies are 1-6 in true road games with that one victory being against the aforementioned Alaska-Anchorage. Their three MAC losses have come by an average of 17.7 ppg. Northern Illinois started the season horrible and a scheduling quick had it off for three straight weeks during the holiday and testing season and that time off is not good for a team and the Huskies are just 2-5 since then. The matchup and the statistics heavily favor the Bobcats here. Ohio has not been playing good plain and simple but it is by far the superior team in this game. The Bobcats have dropped three straight games but the last two came on the road while the lone home loss came by just a point against Bowling Green. Prior to that, Ohio had won eight straight home games including two in the MAC so the Bobcats could very well be undefeated right now. First off, Ohio has played a schedule ranked 114th in the nation which is pretty strong and when you see that the Huskies have played a schedule ranked 304th, you can see why that edge is so big. Even with that the Bobcats have edges across the board in seven of eight categories that I look at. The lone exception is field goal shooting where northern Illinois has a 0.5 percent advantage which is minimal to begin with. It means nothing however as the Ohio has an offensive efficiency ratio of 101.6 compared to just 91.5 for the Huskies. One big advantage is at the free throw line where the Bobcats are hitting 71.3 percent compared to just 57.7 percent for Northern Illinois. If you think that is bad, take a look at the Huskies 49.0 percent success rate at the stripe over their last five games. That is laughable. The overall free throw shooting for the Huskies is the second worst percentage in the entire country. Another huge edge is the assist/turnover ratio comparison that has Ohio at 0.96 and Northern Illinois at 0.80. I say it all the time that the breakeven point is where teams need to be especially if playing weak teams. Northern Illinois fails at this miserably. Ohio is below the 1.00 barrier as well but the strength of its schedule has played a big part in that. The Bobcats fall into a great situation based on their recent losses. Play on home favorites of 10 or more points that are coming off two or more consecutive losses as a favorite in February games. This situation is 34-12 ATS (73.9 percent) since 1997 with the average point differential being +18.7 ppg. Ohio is a solid 12-3 ATS in its last 15 home games following two or more consecutive road losses. The Huskies are 0-7 ATS against teams that commit fewer than 14 turnovers per game while the Bobcats are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 home games after a game where they scored 55 points or fewer. Chalk up another huge loss for the Huskies tonight. 3* Ohio Bobcats
Northern Illinois vs. Ohio (NCAAB)
Feb 5, 2009 7:00 PM EST
Play: Ohio
I went against Northern Illinois on Saturday and that paid off with a win for Bowling Green. Right now, this young team is struggling mightily. The Huskies are 2-5 in the MAC but those wins came against Eastern Michigan and Toledo who are a combined 3-13 in the MAC and 7-37 overall. The best win this season for Northern Illinois came against Indiana St. of all teams and the Sycamores are ranked 238th in the nation. The other five wins came against teams ranked 259th, 320th, 279th and 311th along with Division II team Alaska-Anchorage. Northern Illinois is 5-4 at home but again the wins were not good but the losses were even worse as it dropped those four games by 13, 10, 15 and eight points. The road has been even worse as the Huskies are 1-6 in true road games with that one victory being against the aforementioned Alaska-Anchorage. Their three MAC losses have come by an average of 17.7 ppg. Northern Illinois started the season horrible and a scheduling quick had it off for three straight weeks during the holiday and testing season and that time off is not good for a team and the Huskies are just 2-5 since then. The matchup and the statistics heavily favor the Bobcats here. Ohio has not been playing good plain and simple but it is by far the superior team in this game. The Bobcats have dropped three straight games but the last two came on the road while the lone home loss came by just a point against Bowling Green. Prior to that, Ohio had won eight straight home games including two in the MAC so the Bobcats could very well be undefeated right now. First off, Ohio has played a schedule ranked 114th in the nation which is pretty strong and when you see that the Huskies have played a schedule ranked 304th, you can see why that edge is so big. Even with that the Bobcats have edges across the board in seven of eight categories that I look at. The lone exception is field goal shooting where northern Illinois has a 0.5 percent advantage which is minimal to begin with. It means nothing however as the Ohio has an offensive efficiency ratio of 101.6 compared to just 91.5 for the Huskies. One big advantage is at the free throw line where the Bobcats are hitting 71.3 percent compared to just 57.7 percent for Northern Illinois. If you think that is bad, take a look at the Huskies 49.0 percent success rate at the stripe over their last five games. That is laughable. The overall free throw shooting for the Huskies is the second worst percentage in the entire country. Another huge edge is the assist/turnover ratio comparison that has Ohio at 0.96 and Northern Illinois at 0.80. I say it all the time that the breakeven point is where teams need to be especially if playing weak teams. Northern Illinois fails at this miserably. Ohio is below the 1.00 barrier as well but the strength of its schedule has played a big part in that. The Bobcats fall into a great situation based on their recent losses. Play on home favorites of 10 or more points that are coming off two or more consecutive losses as a favorite in February games. This situation is 34-12 ATS (73.9 percent) since 1997 with the average point differential being +18.7 ppg. Ohio is a solid 12-3 ATS in its last 15 home games following two or more consecutive road losses. The Huskies are 0-7 ATS against teams that commit fewer than 14 turnovers per game while the Bobcats are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 home games after a game where they scored 55 points or fewer. Chalk up another huge loss for the Huskies tonight. 3* Ohio Bobcats
C**un Sports
Gonzaga Bulldogs -7.5 vs. Portland Pilots
PLAY: 2* Gonzaga Bulldogs -7.5
The Chiles Center will be the site of tonights late featured game on ESPN2 as the Gonzaga Bulldogs travel to face the Portland Pilots in a West Coast Conference clash. Both teams enter off SU wins in their last game and both teams are on extended winning streaks which for one of these teams will end tonight.
These two teams have already met once this season back on January 10 in Spokane with Gonzaga winning 67 to 50 but failing to cover the 21 point chalk. We understand the revenge motive but recent history doesn’t support that theory because last season Gonzaga defeated Portland at home on January 28th 79 to 41 and then defeated them about a month later in Spokane 73 to 51. In fact Gonzaga is 24-1 straight up in this series since 1997 and 12-0 straight up when playing at Portland.
The Pilots have struggled with success as these tech sets indicate. Portland is 25-44-5 ATS off a straight up win in their last game and if they are now an underdog they are 13-30-4 ATS. If the Pilots won and covered in their last two games they are a perfect 0-11 ATS. If Portland played their last two games at home and are now an underdog their record is 9-28-3 ATS. Since this is a conference game we decided to see how they responded in certain situations and they struggle here as well. Portland facing a conference opponent has posted a record of 42-64-6 ATS, if they are off a SU win they are 7-25-4 ATS and if they are installed as an underdog their record is 3-18-2 ATS. Finally we see that the Pilots are 0-10-2 ATS if they won straight up and covered the spread at home in their last game and are now a conference underdog.
Gonzaga after winning six straight games and now playing on the road have posted a record of 21-8 ATS, if they are a road favorite their record is 16-6 ATS. If the Bulldogs have won eight straight and are now a road favorite they are 14-5 ATS. Bulldogs after losing ATS in their last game and are installed as a road favorite they are 22-9 ATS. As conference road favorites they are 34-19 ATS and if they won their last game SU but lost ATS and are now a conference road favorite they are 13-2 ATS.
Gonzaga is 16-4 straight up and 9-9 against the spread this season. When playing on the road they are 8-3 SU and 6-5 ATS, in conference play they have a record of 7-0 SU and 3-4 ATS averaging 79.4 points per game versus teams that allow 68.5 points per game, defensively they are holding opponents to only 56.0 points per game when they would normally score 68.8 points per game.
Portland is 15-7 straight up and 12-7 against the number in the 2008-09 campaign. When playing at home they are 10-1 SU and 5-4 ATS, in conference play they are 6-1 SU and 6-1 ATS averaging 68.9 points per game versus teams that allow 67.8 points per game, defensively they are holding opponents to 59.6 points per game and these are teams that average 68.1 points per game.
Our Team Performance Ratings Index indicates that the Bulldogs have an 11.2 point advantage over the pilots in tonights contest. Our Math Model Ratings Index also projects the Bulldogs winning and covering the 7.5 point spread by 4.5 to 6.5 points.
With significant technical support, history and situational support we will back the Bulldogs as they continue their winning streak and put an end to their rivals on Thursday night in Spokane.
PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: (2*) Gonzaga Bulldogs 78 Portland Pilots 67
Gonzaga Bulldogs -7.5 vs. Portland Pilots
PLAY: 2* Gonzaga Bulldogs -7.5
The Chiles Center will be the site of tonights late featured game on ESPN2 as the Gonzaga Bulldogs travel to face the Portland Pilots in a West Coast Conference clash. Both teams enter off SU wins in their last game and both teams are on extended winning streaks which for one of these teams will end tonight.
These two teams have already met once this season back on January 10 in Spokane with Gonzaga winning 67 to 50 but failing to cover the 21 point chalk. We understand the revenge motive but recent history doesn’t support that theory because last season Gonzaga defeated Portland at home on January 28th 79 to 41 and then defeated them about a month later in Spokane 73 to 51. In fact Gonzaga is 24-1 straight up in this series since 1997 and 12-0 straight up when playing at Portland.
The Pilots have struggled with success as these tech sets indicate. Portland is 25-44-5 ATS off a straight up win in their last game and if they are now an underdog they are 13-30-4 ATS. If the Pilots won and covered in their last two games they are a perfect 0-11 ATS. If Portland played their last two games at home and are now an underdog their record is 9-28-3 ATS. Since this is a conference game we decided to see how they responded in certain situations and they struggle here as well. Portland facing a conference opponent has posted a record of 42-64-6 ATS, if they are off a SU win they are 7-25-4 ATS and if they are installed as an underdog their record is 3-18-2 ATS. Finally we see that the Pilots are 0-10-2 ATS if they won straight up and covered the spread at home in their last game and are now a conference underdog.
Gonzaga after winning six straight games and now playing on the road have posted a record of 21-8 ATS, if they are a road favorite their record is 16-6 ATS. If the Bulldogs have won eight straight and are now a road favorite they are 14-5 ATS. Bulldogs after losing ATS in their last game and are installed as a road favorite they are 22-9 ATS. As conference road favorites they are 34-19 ATS and if they won their last game SU but lost ATS and are now a conference road favorite they are 13-2 ATS.
Gonzaga is 16-4 straight up and 9-9 against the spread this season. When playing on the road they are 8-3 SU and 6-5 ATS, in conference play they have a record of 7-0 SU and 3-4 ATS averaging 79.4 points per game versus teams that allow 68.5 points per game, defensively they are holding opponents to only 56.0 points per game when they would normally score 68.8 points per game.
Portland is 15-7 straight up and 12-7 against the number in the 2008-09 campaign. When playing at home they are 10-1 SU and 5-4 ATS, in conference play they are 6-1 SU and 6-1 ATS averaging 68.9 points per game versus teams that allow 67.8 points per game, defensively they are holding opponents to 59.6 points per game and these are teams that average 68.1 points per game.
Our Team Performance Ratings Index indicates that the Bulldogs have an 11.2 point advantage over the pilots in tonights contest. Our Math Model Ratings Index also projects the Bulldogs winning and covering the 7.5 point spread by 4.5 to 6.5 points.
With significant technical support, history and situational support we will back the Bulldogs as they continue their winning streak and put an end to their rivals on Thursday night in Spokane.
PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: (2*) Gonzaga Bulldogs 78 Portland Pilots 67
Maddux Sports
Hockey
#1 - NHL - 3 units on Los Angeles +235
#7 - NHL - 3 units on Anaheim +115
#9 - NHL - 3 units on Edmonton +115
------------------------------------------------------------ Basketball
#702 - NBA - 3 units on Philadelphia -5.5
#724 - NCAA - 3 units on Loyola Chicago -7.5
#731 - NCAA - 3 units on Butler -11
#745 - NCAA - 3 units on Illinois +3.5
#767 - NCAA - 3 units on San Francisco +18
Hockey
#1 - NHL - 3 units on Los Angeles +235
#7 - NHL - 3 units on Anaheim +115
#9 - NHL - 3 units on Edmonton +115
------------------------------------------------------------ Basketball
#702 - NBA - 3 units on Philadelphia -5.5
#724 - NCAA - 3 units on Loyola Chicago -7.5
#731 - NCAA - 3 units on Butler -11
#745 - NCAA - 3 units on Illinois +3.5
#767 - NCAA - 3 units on San Francisco +18
