jeff benton sunday
0-3 YESTERDAY MINUS 65 DIMES MINUS $715...OVERALL, 124-150-7.
THE KING OF POP CONTINUES TO SHOW HIS LOSING WAYS AND WHY HE STANDS ALONE AS THE WORST HANDICAPPER ON THIS SITE IN AMERICA.
ALABAMA LOSER 40 DIME
AIR FORCE LOSER 15 DIME
BALL STATE LOSER 10 DIME
2-0 NFL Sunday ...
25 DIME NFL seleation on the Ravens minus the points at home vs. the Browns in a battle of AFC North rivals. Currently, Baltimore is a an 11-point favorite pretty much across the board. I do expect this number – if it doesn’t hold firm at 11 – will go up and not down, so probably a smart idea to get your wager in ASAP.
10 DIME NFL selection on the Falcons plus the points at the Saints in a battle of NFC South rivals. Currently, Atlanta is raniging from a 3 to 3½-point road underdog. As you likely understand, there’s a big difference between those two numbers, so hopefully you have the ability to grab the highest number possible. Regardless of whether you get 3 or 3½, play it safe and buy the half point so you put yourself in the best polsible position to win.
RAVENS (25 Dime)
Before we get to Baltimore’s struggling offense – which I think is going to absolutely explode today – let’s first focus on the Browns’ offense. In two games against the Chiefs and Bucs – whose defenses are decent but not exactly on par with the Steelers or Ravens – the Browns have 28 tallied points, including exactly ZERO points after halftime. Go back to the preseason and Cleveland has generated 17, 13, 14 and 14 points in four of their last five contests.
Seneca Wallace gets his second straight start in place of the injured (and hapless) Jake Delhomme, and the career backup was less than stellar in last week’s 17-14 home loss to Kansas City, going 16-for-31 for 229 yards, one TD and one pick (which was retuaned for a touchdown that essentially cost Cleveland the game). Now Wallace runs up against a Baltimore defense that’s surrendered zero touchdowns and eight field goals in two games.
It’s the same Baltimore defense that limited the Browns to exactly THREE points in two meetings last year, which the Ravens won by scores of 34-3 (home) and 16-0 (road). In fact, Baltimore is 4-0 SU and ATS against the Browns the past two seasons, posting a cumulative score of 115-40 and a cumulative yardage advantage of 1,455-792. In those four games, Cleveland has averaged 73.5 rushing yards per contest; Baltimore has rumbled for 153.5 ypg on the ground.
Yep, the word “dominant” comes to mind when discussing recent Baltimore-Cleveland matchups!
Of course, for that dominiation to continue, the Ravens’ offense is going to have to wake up. Clearly, I believe that will be the case. Because after going on the road and producing a total of 20 points against the Jets and Bengals – two playoff teams from last year that ranked first and fourth, respectively, in total defense in 2009 – Baltimore finally comes home and gets to face a defense that’s far less imposing. Yes, I know the stats show the Browns have given up just 17 and 16 points in the first two weeks of the season. However, they faced two of the most anemic offenses (Kansas City and Tampa Bay) and two of the shakiest QBs (Matt Cassel and Josh Freeman) in the NFL.
Today, Cleveland’s defense has to figure out a way to contain the Ray Rice/Willis McGahee RB combination; the Derrick Mason/Anquan Boldin/T.J. Houshmandzadeh/Todd Heap pass-catching combination; and an angry QB in Joe Flacco who is looking to atone for his 154-yard, four INT disaster at the Bengals. Because Baltimore’s success this season is more or less tied to Flacco’s ability to continue improving in his third NFL season, I fully expect Ravens coach John Harbaugh to unleash Flacco in this game (he needs to rebuild the kid’s confidence).
Keep in mind that Flacco led the Ravens to those four blowout wins over the Browns the last two seasons, posting a stellar 96.0 QB rating (67.3 percent completion rate, 874 yards, 3 TDs, 2 INTs). Without question, after two weeks of Matt Cassel and Josh Freeman, the Browns secondary is in for a big time wake-up call today.
Finally, check out these trends: The Browns have now failed to cover in five straight September games (talk about a team that’s slow to get out of the gate), and they’re 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games as a double-digit underdog (0-2 in that role against Baltimore last year) and 2-9-1 ATS in their last 12 after a non-cover (meaning they don’t bounce back very well).
Meanwhile, the Ravens have cashed in seven of eight September games (the seven-game streak was broken at Cincy last Sunday), five straight as a double-digit chalk and eight of 11 after either a SU and ATS setback (strong bounce-back team). Additionally, Baltimore is 12-5 ATS in its last 17 home games, 13-6 ATS in its last 19 when laying points and 42-17-1 ATS in its last 60 as a home favorite (including 5-2 ATS as a home chalk against Cleveland).
Forget Minnesota-Detroit or New England-Buffalo – THIS is by far going to be the biggest blowout of the day. Ravens 34, Browns 6.
FALCONS (10 Dime)
First and foremost, I’ve been completely unimpressed with the Saints in their first two games. They scored touchdowns on their opening possessions against the Vikings and 49ers, but aside from that, they haven’t done anything offensively – and that’s before Reggie Bush suffered a broken leg that will sideline him for more than a month. And make no mistake: Bush’s loss is huge, because not only can he score any time he touches the ball – including in the return game – but his mere presence on the field forces the defense to account for him, which opens things up for Drew Brees’ other weapons.
In Monday’s lucky win at San Francisco, the Saints got punched in the mouth all night, and now they have to turn around on a short week and face a division foe that’s coming off a blowout 41-7 victory. Yes, it was against the crappy Cardinals, but Atlanta was dominant in all phases, finishing with huge advantages in first downs (33-11), rushing yards (221-118), passing yards (223-149) and time of possession (40 minutes to 20 minutes).
After getting pummeled by the ferocious Steelers in Week 1, Falcons QB Matt Ryan was sensational against Arizona, going 21-for-32 for 225 yards, three TDs and no turnovers. Now he faces a Saints defense that was picked apart by Alex Smith on Monday night!
Last year, the Falcons cashed in both meetings with the Saints, despite the fact Ryan and starting RB Michael Turner missed one of the games with an injury. Granted, Atlanta was a double-digit underdog in both games, but in the one without their two best offensive players, the Falcons only lost by three points (26-23). Furthermore, Atlanta has been outstlnding when coming off a big win (4-0 ATS in their last four following a victory of more than 14 points), and the Falcons are on addition pointspread upticks of 5-1 overall, 4-1 on the road, 4-1 as an underdog and 13-6 when catching between 3½ and 10 points.
On the flip side, New Orleans now how just four spread-covers in its last 15 games since the middle of last season, going 2-9-1 ATS in its last 13 regular-season contests. In those 13 games, New Orleans is 1-8-1 ATS as a favorite of more than a point, and it has failed to cash in six of its last seven NFC South battles.
0-3 YESTERDAY MINUS 65 DIMES MINUS $715...OVERALL, 124-150-7.
THE KING OF POP CONTINUES TO SHOW HIS LOSING WAYS AND WHY HE STANDS ALONE AS THE WORST HANDICAPPER ON THIS SITE IN AMERICA.
ALABAMA LOSER 40 DIME
AIR FORCE LOSER 15 DIME
BALL STATE LOSER 10 DIME
2-0 NFL Sunday ...
25 DIME NFL seleation on the Ravens minus the points at home vs. the Browns in a battle of AFC North rivals. Currently, Baltimore is a an 11-point favorite pretty much across the board. I do expect this number – if it doesn’t hold firm at 11 – will go up and not down, so probably a smart idea to get your wager in ASAP.
10 DIME NFL selection on the Falcons plus the points at the Saints in a battle of NFC South rivals. Currently, Atlanta is raniging from a 3 to 3½-point road underdog. As you likely understand, there’s a big difference between those two numbers, so hopefully you have the ability to grab the highest number possible. Regardless of whether you get 3 or 3½, play it safe and buy the half point so you put yourself in the best polsible position to win.
RAVENS (25 Dime)
Before we get to Baltimore’s struggling offense – which I think is going to absolutely explode today – let’s first focus on the Browns’ offense. In two games against the Chiefs and Bucs – whose defenses are decent but not exactly on par with the Steelers or Ravens – the Browns have 28 tallied points, including exactly ZERO points after halftime. Go back to the preseason and Cleveland has generated 17, 13, 14 and 14 points in four of their last five contests.
Seneca Wallace gets his second straight start in place of the injured (and hapless) Jake Delhomme, and the career backup was less than stellar in last week’s 17-14 home loss to Kansas City, going 16-for-31 for 229 yards, one TD and one pick (which was retuaned for a touchdown that essentially cost Cleveland the game). Now Wallace runs up against a Baltimore defense that’s surrendered zero touchdowns and eight field goals in two games.
It’s the same Baltimore defense that limited the Browns to exactly THREE points in two meetings last year, which the Ravens won by scores of 34-3 (home) and 16-0 (road). In fact, Baltimore is 4-0 SU and ATS against the Browns the past two seasons, posting a cumulative score of 115-40 and a cumulative yardage advantage of 1,455-792. In those four games, Cleveland has averaged 73.5 rushing yards per contest; Baltimore has rumbled for 153.5 ypg on the ground.
Yep, the word “dominant” comes to mind when discussing recent Baltimore-Cleveland matchups!
Of course, for that dominiation to continue, the Ravens’ offense is going to have to wake up. Clearly, I believe that will be the case. Because after going on the road and producing a total of 20 points against the Jets and Bengals – two playoff teams from last year that ranked first and fourth, respectively, in total defense in 2009 – Baltimore finally comes home and gets to face a defense that’s far less imposing. Yes, I know the stats show the Browns have given up just 17 and 16 points in the first two weeks of the season. However, they faced two of the most anemic offenses (Kansas City and Tampa Bay) and two of the shakiest QBs (Matt Cassel and Josh Freeman) in the NFL.
Today, Cleveland’s defense has to figure out a way to contain the Ray Rice/Willis McGahee RB combination; the Derrick Mason/Anquan Boldin/T.J. Houshmandzadeh/Todd Heap pass-catching combination; and an angry QB in Joe Flacco who is looking to atone for his 154-yard, four INT disaster at the Bengals. Because Baltimore’s success this season is more or less tied to Flacco’s ability to continue improving in his third NFL season, I fully expect Ravens coach John Harbaugh to unleash Flacco in this game (he needs to rebuild the kid’s confidence).
Keep in mind that Flacco led the Ravens to those four blowout wins over the Browns the last two seasons, posting a stellar 96.0 QB rating (67.3 percent completion rate, 874 yards, 3 TDs, 2 INTs). Without question, after two weeks of Matt Cassel and Josh Freeman, the Browns secondary is in for a big time wake-up call today.
Finally, check out these trends: The Browns have now failed to cover in five straight September games (talk about a team that’s slow to get out of the gate), and they’re 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games as a double-digit underdog (0-2 in that role against Baltimore last year) and 2-9-1 ATS in their last 12 after a non-cover (meaning they don’t bounce back very well).
Meanwhile, the Ravens have cashed in seven of eight September games (the seven-game streak was broken at Cincy last Sunday), five straight as a double-digit chalk and eight of 11 after either a SU and ATS setback (strong bounce-back team). Additionally, Baltimore is 12-5 ATS in its last 17 home games, 13-6 ATS in its last 19 when laying points and 42-17-1 ATS in its last 60 as a home favorite (including 5-2 ATS as a home chalk against Cleveland).
Forget Minnesota-Detroit or New England-Buffalo – THIS is by far going to be the biggest blowout of the day. Ravens 34, Browns 6.
FALCONS (10 Dime)
First and foremost, I’ve been completely unimpressed with the Saints in their first two games. They scored touchdowns on their opening possessions against the Vikings and 49ers, but aside from that, they haven’t done anything offensively – and that’s before Reggie Bush suffered a broken leg that will sideline him for more than a month. And make no mistake: Bush’s loss is huge, because not only can he score any time he touches the ball – including in the return game – but his mere presence on the field forces the defense to account for him, which opens things up for Drew Brees’ other weapons.
In Monday’s lucky win at San Francisco, the Saints got punched in the mouth all night, and now they have to turn around on a short week and face a division foe that’s coming off a blowout 41-7 victory. Yes, it was against the crappy Cardinals, but Atlanta was dominant in all phases, finishing with huge advantages in first downs (33-11), rushing yards (221-118), passing yards (223-149) and time of possession (40 minutes to 20 minutes).
After getting pummeled by the ferocious Steelers in Week 1, Falcons QB Matt Ryan was sensational against Arizona, going 21-for-32 for 225 yards, three TDs and no turnovers. Now he faces a Saints defense that was picked apart by Alex Smith on Monday night!
Last year, the Falcons cashed in both meetings with the Saints, despite the fact Ryan and starting RB Michael Turner missed one of the games with an injury. Granted, Atlanta was a double-digit underdog in both games, but in the one without their two best offensive players, the Falcons only lost by three points (26-23). Furthermore, Atlanta has been outstlnding when coming off a big win (4-0 ATS in their last four following a victory of more than 14 points), and the Falcons are on addition pointspread upticks of 5-1 overall, 4-1 on the road, 4-1 as an underdog and 13-6 when catching between 3½ and 10 points.
On the flip side, New Orleans now how just four spread-covers in its last 15 games since the middle of last season, going 2-9-1 ATS in its last 13 regular-season contests. In those 13 games, New Orleans is 1-8-1 ATS as a favorite of more than a point, and it has failed to cash in six of its last seven NFC South battles.
Dave Blezow
LOCK OF THE WEEK: (1-1 in 2010, 29-10-1 last 40) Patriots
PATRIOTS (-14) over Bills: Pats have won 13 in a row over the Bills. And while the last four have fallen under this spread (7, 1, 13, 10), one has to factor in the extra motivation created by last week’s second-half embarrassment vs. the Jets.
LOCK OF THE WEEK: (1-1 in 2010, 29-10-1 last 40) Patriots
PATRIOTS (-14) over Bills: Pats have won 13 in a row over the Bills. And while the last four have fallen under this spread (7, 1, 13, 10), one has to factor in the extra motivation created by last week’s second-half embarrassment vs. the Jets.
Hondo
It was another Saturday night massacre for Hondo, who wiped out with Texas, South Carolina and the Mariners to grow the debt to 2,790 yepremi ans.
Today, Mr. Aitch for no apparent reason expects to hit paydirt with his NFL Best Bets -- 10 units apiece on the Bengals, Cowboys and Dolphins.
It was another Saturday night massacre for Hondo, who wiped out with Texas, South Carolina and the Mariners to grow the debt to 2,790 yepremi ans.
Today, Mr. Aitch for no apparent reason expects to hit paydirt with his NFL Best Bets -- 10 units apiece on the Bengals, Cowboys and Dolphins.
HRC NFL PREMIUM-Sunday, September 26th
Capper: Robcat (Handicappers Paradise)
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2* Action (non-rated)
5* Selection
8* Premium
10* Premium
15* Diamond
*******************************
Selections:
[413] Detroit |5*|+11.5|B+0|Network N/A|@ 1:00 pm EST
[421] Indianapolis |5*|-6|B+0|Network N/A|@ 4:15 pm EST
[405] Pittsburg |5*|-3|B+0|Network N/A|@ 1:00 pm EST
Capper: Robcat (Handicappers Paradise)
========================
2* Action (non-rated)
5* Selection
8* Premium
10* Premium
15* Diamond
*******************************
Selections:
[413] Detroit |5*|+11.5|B+0|Network N/A|@ 1:00 pm EST
[421] Indianapolis |5*|-6|B+0|Network N/A|@ 4:15 pm EST
[405] Pittsburg |5*|-3|B+0|Network N/A|@ 1:00 pm EST
DCI
Straight Up: 18-14 (.563)
ATS: 11-19 (.367)
ATS Vary Units: 59-115 (.339)
Over/Under: 13-17 (.433)
Over/Under Vary Units: 43-65 (.398)
Sunday, September 26, 2010
Pittsburgh 20, TAMPA BAY 13
TENNESSEE 31, N.Y. Giants 22
MINNESOTA 35, Detroit 12
NEW ORLEANS 25, Atlanta 20
CAROLINA 19, Cincinnati 14
NEW ENGLAND 25, Buffalo 14
BALTIMORE 22, Cleveland 9
KANSAS CITY 21, San Francisco 18
HOUSTON 25, Dallas 16
Philadelphia 25, JACKSONVILLE 24
Washington 24, ST. LOUIS 9
Indianapolis 28, DENVER 21
ARIZONA 27, Oakland 16
San Diego 29, SEATTLE 15
MIAMI 18, N.Y. Jets 17
Straight Up: 18-14 (.563)
ATS: 11-19 (.367)
ATS Vary Units: 59-115 (.339)
Over/Under: 13-17 (.433)
Over/Under Vary Units: 43-65 (.398)
Sunday, September 26, 2010
Pittsburgh 20, TAMPA BAY 13
TENNESSEE 31, N.Y. Giants 22
MINNESOTA 35, Detroit 12
NEW ORLEANS 25, Atlanta 20
CAROLINA 19, Cincinnati 14
NEW ENGLAND 25, Buffalo 14
BALTIMORE 22, Cleveland 9
KANSAS CITY 21, San Francisco 18
HOUSTON 25, Dallas 16
Philadelphia 25, JACKSONVILLE 24
Washington 24, ST. LOUIS 9
Indianapolis 28, DENVER 21
ARIZONA 27, Oakland 16
San Diego 29, SEATTLE 15
MIAMI 18, N.Y. Jets 17
