Sun, 09/21/08 - 4:05 PMMatty O'Shea | NFL Total
double-dime bet412 DEN / 411 NOS Over 51.0 BetUS
That's why this is my Double Dime NFL OVER Play O' the Week.
Sun, 09/21/08 - 8:15 PMMatty O'Shea | NFL Money Line
dime bet420 GBP (+145)BetUS vs 419 DAL
I believe that will happen here in this tough spot on the road, which is why I'm backing the Pack to win on the moneyline as my Single Dime NFL Underdog Play O' the Day.
Sun, 09/21/08 - 4:10 PMMatty O'Shea | MLB Money Line
double-dime bet961 PHI (-115)BetUS vs 962 FLA
Bet the Phillies as my Double Dime NL Favorite Play O' the Week.
Sun, 09/21/08 - 4:15 PMMatty O'Shea | NFL Total
triple-dime bet414 PHI / 413 PIT Under 45.0 Bodog
That's why I'm betting the UNDER as my Triple Dime NFL Total Play O' the Month.
double-dime bet412 DEN / 411 NOS Over 51.0 BetUS
That's why this is my Double Dime NFL OVER Play O' the Week.
Sun, 09/21/08 - 8:15 PMMatty O'Shea | NFL Money Line
dime bet420 GBP (+145)BetUS vs 419 DAL
I believe that will happen here in this tough spot on the road, which is why I'm backing the Pack to win on the moneyline as my Single Dime NFL Underdog Play O' the Day.
Sun, 09/21/08 - 4:10 PMMatty O'Shea | MLB Money Line
double-dime bet961 PHI (-115)BetUS vs 962 FLA
Bet the Phillies as my Double Dime NL Favorite Play O' the Week.
Sun, 09/21/08 - 4:15 PMMatty O'Shea | NFL Total
triple-dime bet414 PHI / 413 PIT Under 45.0 Bodog
That's why I'm betting the UNDER as my Triple Dime NFL Total Play O' the Month.
Last edited by a moderator:
Bob Balfe
NFL Football
Kansas City/Atlanta Over 36
Kansas City will start Tyler Thigpen today and it appears that thinks are looking bad for the Chiefs however the still have Larry Johnson running the ball and something tells me Damon Huard might get back on the field in a winnable game against a young Falcons team. The problem the Chiefs will have today will be their defense. Surtain is out which will open up more passing for Matt Ryan backed up with a good dosage of Michael Turner. Atlanta has the capability to score 30 points today. Both of these teams matchup great offensively against a smaller and injured defense. Take the Over.
Cincinnati/NY Giants Over 41.5
I feel bad for the Bengals defense. The Giants will be able to do whatever they want offensively today and should physically man handle the Bengals. Every time the Giants score they have to give the ball back to one of the most underachieving offenses in the history of the NFL. The Bengals are loaded with talent on offense and should get plenty of chances today to put up points on a young Giants defense. Look for both teams to score in bunches. Take the Over.
Vikings -3 over Panthers
Minnesota is wasting no time in benching Tavaris Jackson. Good move! This team has a new QB in the veteran Gus Frerotte, two receivers that are banged up and Adrian Peterson a question mark to play and still are three point favorites. There is a reason why Vegas sets a line likes this. The public is playing all of their bets on the Panthers. If is very rare to see this kind of money coming in on the underdog. For Carolina they get big playmaker Steve Smith back today and things are looking good for this team. This game will not be won on offense, but with the defense of the Minnesota Vikings. This team is in desperation mode and will pressure Delhomme and the Panthers all day. Take the Vikings.
Rams +9.5 over Seahawks
It is as bad as you will ever see it for the Seattle offense. This team has their top six receivers out. It will also not get as bad for this Rams team who in all fairness played two of the best teams in the NFL to open the season which have a lot more talent. St. Louis still has veteran players on offense and Marc Bulger seems to play well against Seattle. Forget about what the Rams can do this game is more about what Seattle cant do. The Seahawks head coach Mike Holmgren announced this is his last season as a coach and this team has no real path to travel as the future doesn't look good. One side note is Rams kicker Josh Brown used to play in Seattle which will help him in the FG department and something tells me the Rams will need a lot of those this year. The line value is too good to pass up here. Take the Rams.
Jaguars +4.5 over Colts
Payton Manning has not looked himself at all this year and he is going to get introduced to a fierce Jaguars defensive line. This is big and will put pressure on him as it should slow down the running game. Jacksonville always plays the Colts tight and should wear down the Colts defense as the have a significant size advantage. The Jaguars are still having some offensive line issues and injuries at wide receiver, but without Bob Sanders in the lineup for the Colts and his backup questionable the Jaguars surely will take their shots down the field once they soften the Colts up with their good running game. The level of talent is shifting in this division and Jacksonville with a win today can make them king of the mountain. Take the Jaguars.
College Football
No plays today.
Major League Baseball
Phillies -115 over Marlins
Moyer/Volstad
NFL Football
Kansas City/Atlanta Over 36
Kansas City will start Tyler Thigpen today and it appears that thinks are looking bad for the Chiefs however the still have Larry Johnson running the ball and something tells me Damon Huard might get back on the field in a winnable game against a young Falcons team. The problem the Chiefs will have today will be their defense. Surtain is out which will open up more passing for Matt Ryan backed up with a good dosage of Michael Turner. Atlanta has the capability to score 30 points today. Both of these teams matchup great offensively against a smaller and injured defense. Take the Over.
Cincinnati/NY Giants Over 41.5
I feel bad for the Bengals defense. The Giants will be able to do whatever they want offensively today and should physically man handle the Bengals. Every time the Giants score they have to give the ball back to one of the most underachieving offenses in the history of the NFL. The Bengals are loaded with talent on offense and should get plenty of chances today to put up points on a young Giants defense. Look for both teams to score in bunches. Take the Over.
Vikings -3 over Panthers
Minnesota is wasting no time in benching Tavaris Jackson. Good move! This team has a new QB in the veteran Gus Frerotte, two receivers that are banged up and Adrian Peterson a question mark to play and still are three point favorites. There is a reason why Vegas sets a line likes this. The public is playing all of their bets on the Panthers. If is very rare to see this kind of money coming in on the underdog. For Carolina they get big playmaker Steve Smith back today and things are looking good for this team. This game will not be won on offense, but with the defense of the Minnesota Vikings. This team is in desperation mode and will pressure Delhomme and the Panthers all day. Take the Vikings.
Rams +9.5 over Seahawks
It is as bad as you will ever see it for the Seattle offense. This team has their top six receivers out. It will also not get as bad for this Rams team who in all fairness played two of the best teams in the NFL to open the season which have a lot more talent. St. Louis still has veteran players on offense and Marc Bulger seems to play well against Seattle. Forget about what the Rams can do this game is more about what Seattle cant do. The Seahawks head coach Mike Holmgren announced this is his last season as a coach and this team has no real path to travel as the future doesn't look good. One side note is Rams kicker Josh Brown used to play in Seattle which will help him in the FG department and something tells me the Rams will need a lot of those this year. The line value is too good to pass up here. Take the Rams.
Jaguars +4.5 over Colts
Payton Manning has not looked himself at all this year and he is going to get introduced to a fierce Jaguars defensive line. This is big and will put pressure on him as it should slow down the running game. Jacksonville always plays the Colts tight and should wear down the Colts defense as the have a significant size advantage. The Jaguars are still having some offensive line issues and injuries at wide receiver, but without Bob Sanders in the lineup for the Colts and his backup questionable the Jaguars surely will take their shots down the field once they soften the Colts up with their good running game. The level of talent is shifting in this division and Jacksonville with a win today can make them king of the mountain. Take the Jaguars.
College Football
No plays today.
Major League Baseball
Phillies -115 over Marlins
Moyer/Volstad
Players of America
Today's Selections
DET vs. SF
Sport: NFL
Game: Detroit Lions vs. San Francisco 49ers
The Play: Detroit Lions +5.0
Play Description:
Star Value: 3* (30 Units)
Writeup: N/A
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CIN vs. NYG
Sport: NFL
Game: Cincinnati Bengals vs. New York Giants
The Play: Cincinnati Bengals +13.0
Play Description:
Star Value: 1* (10 Units)
Writeup: N/A
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CLE vs. BAL
Sport: NFL
Game: Cleveland Browns vs. Baltimore Ravens
The Play: Cleveland Browns +1.5
Play Description:
Star Value: 1* (10 Units)
Writeup: N/A
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DAL vs. GB
Sport: NFL
Game: Dallas Cowboys vs. Green Bay Packers
The Play: Dallas Cowboys -3.0
Play Description:
Star Value: 1* (10 Units)
Writeup: N/A
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Today's Selections
DET vs. SF
Sport: NFL
Game: Detroit Lions vs. San Francisco 49ers
The Play: Detroit Lions +5.0
Play Description:
Star Value: 3* (30 Units)
Writeup: N/A
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CIN vs. NYG
Sport: NFL
Game: Cincinnati Bengals vs. New York Giants
The Play: Cincinnati Bengals +13.0
Play Description:
Star Value: 1* (10 Units)
Writeup: N/A
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
CLE vs. BAL
Sport: NFL
Game: Cleveland Browns vs. Baltimore Ravens
The Play: Cleveland Browns +1.5
Play Description:
Star Value: 1* (10 Units)
Writeup: N/A
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DAL vs. GB
Sport: NFL
Game: Dallas Cowboys vs. Green Bay Packers
The Play: Dallas Cowboys -3.0
Play Description:
Star Value: 1* (10 Units)
Writeup: N/A
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Cajun-Sports NFL Executive Report- Sunday
NFL: 13-5 (+23)
Time / Date: 1:00 EST / Sunday September 21
Game: New Orleans Saints vs. Denver Broncos
Line Origin: BetCris @ 12:23 EST September 20
Grade / Prediction: 5* New Orleans Saints +5.5
Analysis:
The Denver Broncos will play host to the New Orleans Saints in the Mile High City on Sunday afternoon. Denver is coming in off a controversial win over the Chargers last week while the Saints are back on the road again after suffering a loss to the Skins in DC last Sunday.
Denver has looked great on offense during the first two games of the season. They are averaging over 7 yards per play and Denver QB Jay Cutler is averaging 8.5 yards per pass play. Much of the yardage was gained against the Raiders defense and a Chargers defense that was playing without their leader Shawne Merriman.
The defense the Broncos will face on Sunday is far from a premier defense in this league but the difference for the Saints is they have the weapons on offense to stay with the Broncos. The Saints are averaging 6.2 yards per play on offense this season and they have played against a solid Bucs “D” and a very capable Washington defense.
Denver’s offensive explosion actually plays against them here as we know the Broncos are a perfect 0-9 ATS after gaining 6 or more yards per play in their previous game over the last 2 seasons. In these contests the Broncos average scoring 19.9 points per game while their opponents average scoring 31.2 points per game.
New Orleans is accustomed to that kind of offense, having ranked first and fourth in total offense in 2006 and 2007, respectively. The Saints, however, fell to 10th in the league in 2008 after being held to 250 yards in a 29-24 after that loss to Washington last Sunday.
Despite their struggles to move the ball, they took a nine-point lead into the fourth quarter before giving up two touchdowns in the final six minutes.
"I thought we were fortunate to be up by nine going into the fourth quarter," said Saints coach Sean Payton. "That teased us a little bit. But when it came time in the fourth quarter with some critical plays offensively trying to make a yard, trying to convert a third-and-5, or defensively trying to keep the ball in front of us they made those plays."
Saints quarterback Drew Brees was 22-for-33 for 216 yards, one touchdown and two interceptions, and didn't get much help on the ground. New Orleans had 55 yards on 19 carries. Brees is confident the team can bounce back as it did last year, when it went 7-5 after a 0-4 start.
"Any time early on in a season when you start playing games that count, you're still trying to find yourselves a little bit," Brees told the team's official Web site. "It's a new year. We just need to get back on track and get back to the point where every time we touch the ball we have that confidence level that we're going to go right down the field and score."
The outstanding play of Denver ’s QB Jay Cutler has disguised their weaknesses and this Saints team is the perfect one to exploit those areas. Denver has a weak run defense and a secondary that is not as good as perceived. They also lack that solid ground attack on offense which has been their go to in big games.
This game is also a perfect letdown spot for the Broncos as they are coming in off two AFC West matchups and have a division contest on tap next week. Denver is 0-8 ATS in a division sandwich and also 2-9 ATS at home off back-to-back SU and ATS wins. The Broncos have also struggled in the role of favorite going 6-15 ATS their last 21.
The Broncos are 4-14-1 ATS when facing a team that has an average turnover margin of at least +1 per game, season-to-date. The Broncos are 4-14 ATS as a favorite when they won and covered their last two games. The Broncos are 0-7 ATS at home versus a non-divisional opponent before playing on the road against a divisional opponent. The Broncos are 1-10-1 ATS as a home favorite when facing a team that has an average turnover margin of at least +1 per game, season-to-date.
The Saints are 10-2-1 ATS on the road after a straight up loss when the line was within 3 of pick'em. The Saints are 7-0 ATS on the road when they passed for at least 100 fewer yards last week than their season-to-date average. The Saints are 11-2 ATS as a dog when they lost last week while suffering a turnover margin of at least +2 on the road. The Saints are 6-0 ATS as a road dog off a SU and ATS loss last week versus a team that is off a SU and ATS win last week.
Data base research has uncovered a system that tells us to “Play AGAINST” an NFL favorite the week after a straight up win at home in which they had at least 3 more penalties than their season-to-date average, 10-1 ATS. Finally another system that tells us to “Play AGAINST” any NFL team the week after scoring 34 or more points at home, 25-11 ATS.
Our Technical Situation Report shows the Broncos to be in a negative situation that is based on teams coming off a Clutch Win and now facing an opponent who has an average starting field position of >31, 27-93 ATS since 1994.
GRADED PREDICTION: 5* NEW ORLEANS SAINTS +5.5
Time / Date: 1:00 EST / Sunday September 21
Game: Arizona Cardinals vs. Washington Redskins
Line Origin: BetCris @ 4:43 EST September 20
Grade / Prediction: 4* Washington Redskins-3
Analysis:
The Redskins will play host to the Arizona Cardinals who are currently 2-0 on the year while the Skins check in with a 1-1 record after defeating the Saints last Sunday at home in DC.
This will be a huge step up in class for the Cardinals as they face the Skins who play in the NFC’s toughest division. We must also remember this is a Cards team who has had one winning season in the last twenty-three years.
The Cards were actually outgained in their meeting with the 49ers averaging only 4.3 yards per play while their defense gave up almost 7 yards per play. They were very lucky to come away with a win in that game, the turnover differential was the difference as the Cards were plus five in that department.
Last week the Cards hosted a weak Miami Dolphins squad in the desert and were able to get the win. They outgained the Fins 445 to 236 in total yards. That game would be classified as a game the Cards should win so no big surprise in that one.
The Skins opened the season with a loss to the defending Super Bowl Champion New York Giants. Washington was able to bounce back from that loss to the Giants and beat a pretty good New Orleans Saints team 29 to 24.
Washington’s defense was able to hold the explosive Saints offense to less than 5 yards per play while averaging almost 7 yards per play on offense. The Skins played well on both sides of the ball and appear to have taken that next step which is more than enough to get the win and cover here against a Cards team that has not faced a solid opponent to date.
The Cards must also make the dreaded “time zone” trip across three time zones and an early kickoff as well. The Cards have also struggled when playing off back-to-back SU wins posting a record of 0-7 ATS their last 7 and 8-20 ATS since 1992. We also note that the Skins are 11-0 ATS before playing Dallas when their opponent is off a SU win of six or more points.
We have two systems that are active in this contest. The first tells us to “Play ON” an NFL team within 3 of pick at home versus a non-divisional opponent before playing on the road against a divisional opponent, 11-0 ATS. The second system tells us to “Play AGAINST” an NFL team on the road versus a non-divisional opponent before playing on the road, 30-14-2 ATS.
Our Technical Situation Report shows the Redskins are in a positive situation for Favorites or Underdogs of <10 points in Week Two or Three, coming in off a home game with a fumble differential last season of <0 and they are not coming off a MNF appearance in their last game, 108-39 ATS since 1994. One final situation for the Skins says to Play On teams with a season penalty yard average for at least twenty points higher than their penalty average against (seas pf >=14), currently facing an opponent with a below average rush offense rating, 83-15 ATS since 1994.
GRADED PREDICTION: 4* WASHINGTON REDSKINS -3
Time / Date: 4:05 EST / Sunday September 21
Game: Detroit Lions vs. San Francisco 49ers
Line Origin: BetCris @ 5:52 EST September 20
Grade / Prediction: 4* San Francisco 49ers -4.5
Analysis:
The 49ers play host to the Detroit Lions on Sunday afternoon by the Bay. The Lions are an ugly 0-2 on the year while the 49ers have shown signs of life this season with a record of 1-1.
San Francisco actually outgained Arizona in their opener 6.8 yards per play to only 4.3 yards per play. The turnovers killed the 49ers in that contest with a -5 ratio in the T/O margin and they lost the game.
San Francisco was able to bounce back last week with an upset win at Seattle . The 49ers won the yards per play battle in this contest as well with 5.8 to 4.9 yards per play average. This has been accomplished by the balanced attack of running back Frank Gore who is averaging better than 4.5 yards per rush and QB J.T. O’Sullivan who has averaged over 7 yards per pass play.
Not only have the 49ers improved on offense we have seen improvement on the defensive side of the ball as well. Their pass defense has been solid only allowing opposing teams to average just over 5 yards per pass play. They have averaged giving up just 4.6 yards per play overall on the season.
This is not a good sign for the Lions offensive team as they are struggling with both their rushing and passing attack. Lions QB Kitna is only averaging 6 yards per pass play this season and has given up 4 INT’s in just two games. The answer will not be found in their rushing game where they have only managed 3.4 yards per rush this season.
The Lion’s defense has been non-existent to this point in the season. In their season opener on the road they allowed the Atlanta Falcons over 9 yards per play in that loss. Their second game was at home against the Packers and they lowered the number to 6.7 yards per play but still terrible numbers for their defensive unit.
Detroit is 0-7 ATS after a game with a turnover margin of -2 or worse over the last 3 seasons. Detroit is 1-8 ATS as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points over the last 3 seasons. Detroit is 0-7 ATS in road games after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored over the last 3 seasons. The Lions are 1-10 ATS on the road the week before their bye. The Lions are 0-6-1 ATS when they lost last week while suffering a turnover margin of at least +2.
Data base research has uncovered a system that is active for today’s game. It says to “PLAY ON” NFL teams as a home favorite versus a non-divisional opponent when they faced divisional opponents in each of the previous two weeks, 8-0-1 ATS.
Our Technical Situation Report shows San Francisco in a positive situation for teams with a linebacker run tackle percentage for >75 and a rush defense rating advantage >1 over their current opponent, 22-1 ATS since 1994.
GRADED PREDICTION: 4* SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS -4.5
Time / Date: 1:00 EST / Sunday September 21
Game: Arizona Cardinals vs. Washington Redskins
Line Origin: BetCris @ 2:27 EST September 19
Grade / Prediction: 4* Arizona / Washington Over 42.5
Analysis:
The Skins play host to the Cards in DC on Sunday afternoon. Washington off a big home win over the Saints last week moved their record to 1-1 on the young season while the Cards have come out of the gate with a perfect 2-0 to start the season.
Dating to last year, Arizona has won four in a row. The Cardinals' 54 points in the two games are the most to open the season since they scored 68 in 1985, while the 23 points allowed are the franchise's fewest to open a season since 1977.
Cardinals QB Kurt Warner completed 19 of 24 passes for 361 yards, three touchdowns and no interceptions last week. Warner, a 37-year-old veteran who beat out third-year pro Matt Leinart for the starting job, had a perfect 158.3 passer rating for the third time in his career, tying Peyton Manning for the NFL record.
The two-time league MVP and Super Bowl XXIV champion is 96-for-145 for 1,227 yards, 10 TDs and two interceptions during Arizona 's four-game winning streak.
The Cardinals could have their work cut out for them as they meet the Redskins who bounced back from a 16-7 loss to the New York Giants in Week 1 with a 29-24 victory over New Orleans in their home opener last Sunday.
After looking uncomfortable while going 15-for-27 for 133 yards and one touchdown in his first game under rookie coach Jim Zorn, Jason Campbell was 24-for-36 for 321 yards and a TD in the win. He completed a 67-yard touchdown pass to Santana Moss with 3:29 left for the winning score.
This series has seen the “Over” cash in their last three meetings and Arizona is 18-6 Over their last 24 games overall. Arizona is 14-3 Over after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread over the last 3 seasons. Teams from the NFL West time zone who are on the road as underdogs versus NFL East time zone teams the ‘Over” has cashed at a rate of 20-4-1 the last four seasons during the first half of the year. If our team from the West is facing a conference opponent that record improves to an almost perfect 12-1 Over!
Two teams that like to throw the ball all over the field combined with strong technical support leads us to our NFL 4* Total Game of the Week.
GRADED PREDICTION: 4* Arizona / Washington OVER 42.5
Time / Date: 1:00 EST / Sunday September 21
Game: Oakland Raiders vs. Buffalo Bills
Line Origin: BetCris @ 3:28 EST September 19
Grade / Prediction: 3* Oakland / Buffalo Over 36
Analysis:
The Bills will play host to the Oakland Raiders on Sunday afternoon in Buffalo . The Bills have jumped out to a 2-0 record while the Raiders got to .500 on the season with a big win over KC on Sunday.
Bills QB Trent Edwards has led a resurgent Buffalo passing attack which finished third-to-last in the NFL last season. Edwards is fourth in the AFC with a 107.7 passer rating, having yet to throw an interception while completing 70.9 percent of his passes for 454 yards.
While Edwards looks to fill Jim Kelly's shoes, second-year RB Marshawn Lynch is trying to play a Thurman Thomas' role with the Bills. Lynch has rushed for a touchdown in each of the first two games, but has yet to post a 100-yard game this year and would like to improve upon his average of 3.6 yards per carry.
A year after Lynch led all AFC rookies with 1,119 rushing yards; Oakland has the current conference leader among rookies in RB Darren McFadden. The former Arkansas standout ran for 164 yards and a touchdown on 21 carries last Sunday, and he's averaging 7.0 yards per carry.
This game falls into one of our East/West total situations. NFL West time zone teams who are on the road as underdogs facing an NFL East time zone team have posted a record of 20-4-1 Over. If our team from the West is facing a conference opponent the O/U record improves to an outstanding 12-1 Over. We also have a system that is active because both of our teams are off SU underdog wins in their last games. The system tells us that Game Three teams coming in off a road underdog win in their last game are 7-1 Over and if their opponent is also off a underdog win in their last game the record is a perfect 4-0 Over.
The Raiders are 13-2 Over as a dog the week after a win in which they had at least 150+ yards rushing. The Raiders are 7-0 Over on the road the week after a win in which they had at least 150+ yards rushing. The League is 9-0 Over on the road the week after a game in which they had fewer than 100 yards passing. The League is 15-7-2 Over as a road dog when facing an undefeated team after week 1.
The Bills are 12-1 Over at home after a straight up win. The Bills are 14-2 Over at home when their opponent's season-to-date average pass attempts per game is fewer than 30. The Bills are 8-0 Over after a win on the road in which they were losing at the end of the third quarter. The League is 26-9 Over the week after on the road in which their completion percentage was at least ten points higher than their season-to-date average. The League is 20-5-1 Over at home the week after on the road as a dog in which their completion percentage was at least ten points higher than their season-to-date average. The League is 41-19-2 Over at home after playing as a dog.
This series has seen the “Over” cash at a rate of 11-3 their last 14 meetings overall and if they are in Buffalo that record is 8-1 Over. Combine the strong technical factors with our obvious fundamentals and we have our 3* NFL Total Play for Sunday.
GRADED PREDICTION: 3* Oakland / Buffalo OVER 36
Cajun-Sports Free NFL Selection
Time / Date: 1:00 EST / Sunday September 21
Game: Carolina Panthers vs. Minnesota Vikings
Line Origin: BetCris @ 11:30 EST September 19
Grade / Prediction: 2* Carolina Panthers +3.5
Analysis:
The 0-2 Minnesota Vikings host the 2-0 Carolina Panthers on Sunday afternoon in the Twin Cities. This is a tale of two quarterbacks with the Vikings Tarvaris Jackson experiment failing to produce winners and the return of the Panthers QB Jake Delhomme which has led to a 2-0 start for Carolina .
Many so-called experts had Minnesota winning the NFC North Division before the season started and although it’s still early those predictions have taken a major hit with the Vikings poor performance in their first two games of the season.
Carolina gets another boost this week with the return of their best wide-receiver and one of the leagues best in Steven Smith. This adds another dimension to the Panthers offensive scheme.
On the technical front we have a system that tells us to PLAY ON NFL road underdogs when facing a team that has no wins on the year after Week One of the season, 18-4-2 ATS. We also know that the Panthers are 20-1 ATS as a non-division road underdog facing a team with a winning percentage of .550 or worse. Game Three NFL favorites of 5 or less points who are winless on the year are 3-19 ATS.
Finally we have an NFL Power System that says; In Game 3, play ON a non-winless team (not a favorite of 7+ points or underdog of more than 5 points) vs. a winless opponent off 2 underdog SU losses in its last 2 games, 19-0-1 ATS since 1995.
The combination of fundamental and technical support in this contest gives us our NFL 2* Complimentary Selection of the Week.
GRADED PREDICTION: 2* Carolina Panthers 23 Minnesota Vikings 19
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NFL: 13-5 (+23)
Time / Date: 1:00 EST / Sunday September 21
Game: New Orleans Saints vs. Denver Broncos
Line Origin: BetCris @ 12:23 EST September 20
Grade / Prediction: 5* New Orleans Saints +5.5
Analysis:
The Denver Broncos will play host to the New Orleans Saints in the Mile High City on Sunday afternoon. Denver is coming in off a controversial win over the Chargers last week while the Saints are back on the road again after suffering a loss to the Skins in DC last Sunday.
Denver has looked great on offense during the first two games of the season. They are averaging over 7 yards per play and Denver QB Jay Cutler is averaging 8.5 yards per pass play. Much of the yardage was gained against the Raiders defense and a Chargers defense that was playing without their leader Shawne Merriman.
The defense the Broncos will face on Sunday is far from a premier defense in this league but the difference for the Saints is they have the weapons on offense to stay with the Broncos. The Saints are averaging 6.2 yards per play on offense this season and they have played against a solid Bucs “D” and a very capable Washington defense.
Denver’s offensive explosion actually plays against them here as we know the Broncos are a perfect 0-9 ATS after gaining 6 or more yards per play in their previous game over the last 2 seasons. In these contests the Broncos average scoring 19.9 points per game while their opponents average scoring 31.2 points per game.
New Orleans is accustomed to that kind of offense, having ranked first and fourth in total offense in 2006 and 2007, respectively. The Saints, however, fell to 10th in the league in 2008 after being held to 250 yards in a 29-24 after that loss to Washington last Sunday.
Despite their struggles to move the ball, they took a nine-point lead into the fourth quarter before giving up two touchdowns in the final six minutes.
"I thought we were fortunate to be up by nine going into the fourth quarter," said Saints coach Sean Payton. "That teased us a little bit. But when it came time in the fourth quarter with some critical plays offensively trying to make a yard, trying to convert a third-and-5, or defensively trying to keep the ball in front of us they made those plays."
Saints quarterback Drew Brees was 22-for-33 for 216 yards, one touchdown and two interceptions, and didn't get much help on the ground. New Orleans had 55 yards on 19 carries. Brees is confident the team can bounce back as it did last year, when it went 7-5 after a 0-4 start.
"Any time early on in a season when you start playing games that count, you're still trying to find yourselves a little bit," Brees told the team's official Web site. "It's a new year. We just need to get back on track and get back to the point where every time we touch the ball we have that confidence level that we're going to go right down the field and score."
The outstanding play of Denver ’s QB Jay Cutler has disguised their weaknesses and this Saints team is the perfect one to exploit those areas. Denver has a weak run defense and a secondary that is not as good as perceived. They also lack that solid ground attack on offense which has been their go to in big games.
This game is also a perfect letdown spot for the Broncos as they are coming in off two AFC West matchups and have a division contest on tap next week. Denver is 0-8 ATS in a division sandwich and also 2-9 ATS at home off back-to-back SU and ATS wins. The Broncos have also struggled in the role of favorite going 6-15 ATS their last 21.
The Broncos are 4-14-1 ATS when facing a team that has an average turnover margin of at least +1 per game, season-to-date. The Broncos are 4-14 ATS as a favorite when they won and covered their last two games. The Broncos are 0-7 ATS at home versus a non-divisional opponent before playing on the road against a divisional opponent. The Broncos are 1-10-1 ATS as a home favorite when facing a team that has an average turnover margin of at least +1 per game, season-to-date.
The Saints are 10-2-1 ATS on the road after a straight up loss when the line was within 3 of pick'em. The Saints are 7-0 ATS on the road when they passed for at least 100 fewer yards last week than their season-to-date average. The Saints are 11-2 ATS as a dog when they lost last week while suffering a turnover margin of at least +2 on the road. The Saints are 6-0 ATS as a road dog off a SU and ATS loss last week versus a team that is off a SU and ATS win last week.
Data base research has uncovered a system that tells us to “Play AGAINST” an NFL favorite the week after a straight up win at home in which they had at least 3 more penalties than their season-to-date average, 10-1 ATS. Finally another system that tells us to “Play AGAINST” any NFL team the week after scoring 34 or more points at home, 25-11 ATS.
Our Technical Situation Report shows the Broncos to be in a negative situation that is based on teams coming off a Clutch Win and now facing an opponent who has an average starting field position of >31, 27-93 ATS since 1994.
GRADED PREDICTION: 5* NEW ORLEANS SAINTS +5.5
Time / Date: 1:00 EST / Sunday September 21
Game: Arizona Cardinals vs. Washington Redskins
Line Origin: BetCris @ 4:43 EST September 20
Grade / Prediction: 4* Washington Redskins-3
Analysis:
The Redskins will play host to the Arizona Cardinals who are currently 2-0 on the year while the Skins check in with a 1-1 record after defeating the Saints last Sunday at home in DC.
This will be a huge step up in class for the Cardinals as they face the Skins who play in the NFC’s toughest division. We must also remember this is a Cards team who has had one winning season in the last twenty-three years.
The Cards were actually outgained in their meeting with the 49ers averaging only 4.3 yards per play while their defense gave up almost 7 yards per play. They were very lucky to come away with a win in that game, the turnover differential was the difference as the Cards were plus five in that department.
Last week the Cards hosted a weak Miami Dolphins squad in the desert and were able to get the win. They outgained the Fins 445 to 236 in total yards. That game would be classified as a game the Cards should win so no big surprise in that one.
The Skins opened the season with a loss to the defending Super Bowl Champion New York Giants. Washington was able to bounce back from that loss to the Giants and beat a pretty good New Orleans Saints team 29 to 24.
Washington’s defense was able to hold the explosive Saints offense to less than 5 yards per play while averaging almost 7 yards per play on offense. The Skins played well on both sides of the ball and appear to have taken that next step which is more than enough to get the win and cover here against a Cards team that has not faced a solid opponent to date.
The Cards must also make the dreaded “time zone” trip across three time zones and an early kickoff as well. The Cards have also struggled when playing off back-to-back SU wins posting a record of 0-7 ATS their last 7 and 8-20 ATS since 1992. We also note that the Skins are 11-0 ATS before playing Dallas when their opponent is off a SU win of six or more points.
We have two systems that are active in this contest. The first tells us to “Play ON” an NFL team within 3 of pick at home versus a non-divisional opponent before playing on the road against a divisional opponent, 11-0 ATS. The second system tells us to “Play AGAINST” an NFL team on the road versus a non-divisional opponent before playing on the road, 30-14-2 ATS.
Our Technical Situation Report shows the Redskins are in a positive situation for Favorites or Underdogs of <10 points in Week Two or Three, coming in off a home game with a fumble differential last season of <0 and they are not coming off a MNF appearance in their last game, 108-39 ATS since 1994. One final situation for the Skins says to Play On teams with a season penalty yard average for at least twenty points higher than their penalty average against (seas pf >=14), currently facing an opponent with a below average rush offense rating, 83-15 ATS since 1994.
GRADED PREDICTION: 4* WASHINGTON REDSKINS -3
Time / Date: 4:05 EST / Sunday September 21
Game: Detroit Lions vs. San Francisco 49ers
Line Origin: BetCris @ 5:52 EST September 20
Grade / Prediction: 4* San Francisco 49ers -4.5
Analysis:
The 49ers play host to the Detroit Lions on Sunday afternoon by the Bay. The Lions are an ugly 0-2 on the year while the 49ers have shown signs of life this season with a record of 1-1.
San Francisco actually outgained Arizona in their opener 6.8 yards per play to only 4.3 yards per play. The turnovers killed the 49ers in that contest with a -5 ratio in the T/O margin and they lost the game.
San Francisco was able to bounce back last week with an upset win at Seattle . The 49ers won the yards per play battle in this contest as well with 5.8 to 4.9 yards per play average. This has been accomplished by the balanced attack of running back Frank Gore who is averaging better than 4.5 yards per rush and QB J.T. O’Sullivan who has averaged over 7 yards per pass play.
Not only have the 49ers improved on offense we have seen improvement on the defensive side of the ball as well. Their pass defense has been solid only allowing opposing teams to average just over 5 yards per pass play. They have averaged giving up just 4.6 yards per play overall on the season.
This is not a good sign for the Lions offensive team as they are struggling with both their rushing and passing attack. Lions QB Kitna is only averaging 6 yards per pass play this season and has given up 4 INT’s in just two games. The answer will not be found in their rushing game where they have only managed 3.4 yards per rush this season.
The Lion’s defense has been non-existent to this point in the season. In their season opener on the road they allowed the Atlanta Falcons over 9 yards per play in that loss. Their second game was at home against the Packers and they lowered the number to 6.7 yards per play but still terrible numbers for their defensive unit.
Detroit is 0-7 ATS after a game with a turnover margin of -2 or worse over the last 3 seasons. Detroit is 1-8 ATS as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points over the last 3 seasons. Detroit is 0-7 ATS in road games after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored over the last 3 seasons. The Lions are 1-10 ATS on the road the week before their bye. The Lions are 0-6-1 ATS when they lost last week while suffering a turnover margin of at least +2.
Data base research has uncovered a system that is active for today’s game. It says to “PLAY ON” NFL teams as a home favorite versus a non-divisional opponent when they faced divisional opponents in each of the previous two weeks, 8-0-1 ATS.
Our Technical Situation Report shows San Francisco in a positive situation for teams with a linebacker run tackle percentage for >75 and a rush defense rating advantage >1 over their current opponent, 22-1 ATS since 1994.
GRADED PREDICTION: 4* SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS -4.5
Time / Date: 1:00 EST / Sunday September 21
Game: Arizona Cardinals vs. Washington Redskins
Line Origin: BetCris @ 2:27 EST September 19
Grade / Prediction: 4* Arizona / Washington Over 42.5
Analysis:
The Skins play host to the Cards in DC on Sunday afternoon. Washington off a big home win over the Saints last week moved their record to 1-1 on the young season while the Cards have come out of the gate with a perfect 2-0 to start the season.
Dating to last year, Arizona has won four in a row. The Cardinals' 54 points in the two games are the most to open the season since they scored 68 in 1985, while the 23 points allowed are the franchise's fewest to open a season since 1977.
Cardinals QB Kurt Warner completed 19 of 24 passes for 361 yards, three touchdowns and no interceptions last week. Warner, a 37-year-old veteran who beat out third-year pro Matt Leinart for the starting job, had a perfect 158.3 passer rating for the third time in his career, tying Peyton Manning for the NFL record.
The two-time league MVP and Super Bowl XXIV champion is 96-for-145 for 1,227 yards, 10 TDs and two interceptions during Arizona 's four-game winning streak.
The Cardinals could have their work cut out for them as they meet the Redskins who bounced back from a 16-7 loss to the New York Giants in Week 1 with a 29-24 victory over New Orleans in their home opener last Sunday.
After looking uncomfortable while going 15-for-27 for 133 yards and one touchdown in his first game under rookie coach Jim Zorn, Jason Campbell was 24-for-36 for 321 yards and a TD in the win. He completed a 67-yard touchdown pass to Santana Moss with 3:29 left for the winning score.
This series has seen the “Over” cash in their last three meetings and Arizona is 18-6 Over their last 24 games overall. Arizona is 14-3 Over after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread over the last 3 seasons. Teams from the NFL West time zone who are on the road as underdogs versus NFL East time zone teams the ‘Over” has cashed at a rate of 20-4-1 the last four seasons during the first half of the year. If our team from the West is facing a conference opponent that record improves to an almost perfect 12-1 Over!
Two teams that like to throw the ball all over the field combined with strong technical support leads us to our NFL 4* Total Game of the Week.
GRADED PREDICTION: 4* Arizona / Washington OVER 42.5
Time / Date: 1:00 EST / Sunday September 21
Game: Oakland Raiders vs. Buffalo Bills
Line Origin: BetCris @ 3:28 EST September 19
Grade / Prediction: 3* Oakland / Buffalo Over 36
Analysis:
The Bills will play host to the Oakland Raiders on Sunday afternoon in Buffalo . The Bills have jumped out to a 2-0 record while the Raiders got to .500 on the season with a big win over KC on Sunday.
Bills QB Trent Edwards has led a resurgent Buffalo passing attack which finished third-to-last in the NFL last season. Edwards is fourth in the AFC with a 107.7 passer rating, having yet to throw an interception while completing 70.9 percent of his passes for 454 yards.
While Edwards looks to fill Jim Kelly's shoes, second-year RB Marshawn Lynch is trying to play a Thurman Thomas' role with the Bills. Lynch has rushed for a touchdown in each of the first two games, but has yet to post a 100-yard game this year and would like to improve upon his average of 3.6 yards per carry.
A year after Lynch led all AFC rookies with 1,119 rushing yards; Oakland has the current conference leader among rookies in RB Darren McFadden. The former Arkansas standout ran for 164 yards and a touchdown on 21 carries last Sunday, and he's averaging 7.0 yards per carry.
This game falls into one of our East/West total situations. NFL West time zone teams who are on the road as underdogs facing an NFL East time zone team have posted a record of 20-4-1 Over. If our team from the West is facing a conference opponent the O/U record improves to an outstanding 12-1 Over. We also have a system that is active because both of our teams are off SU underdog wins in their last games. The system tells us that Game Three teams coming in off a road underdog win in their last game are 7-1 Over and if their opponent is also off a underdog win in their last game the record is a perfect 4-0 Over.
The Raiders are 13-2 Over as a dog the week after a win in which they had at least 150+ yards rushing. The Raiders are 7-0 Over on the road the week after a win in which they had at least 150+ yards rushing. The League is 9-0 Over on the road the week after a game in which they had fewer than 100 yards passing. The League is 15-7-2 Over as a road dog when facing an undefeated team after week 1.
The Bills are 12-1 Over at home after a straight up win. The Bills are 14-2 Over at home when their opponent's season-to-date average pass attempts per game is fewer than 30. The Bills are 8-0 Over after a win on the road in which they were losing at the end of the third quarter. The League is 26-9 Over the week after on the road in which their completion percentage was at least ten points higher than their season-to-date average. The League is 20-5-1 Over at home the week after on the road as a dog in which their completion percentage was at least ten points higher than their season-to-date average. The League is 41-19-2 Over at home after playing as a dog.
This series has seen the “Over” cash at a rate of 11-3 their last 14 meetings overall and if they are in Buffalo that record is 8-1 Over. Combine the strong technical factors with our obvious fundamentals and we have our 3* NFL Total Play for Sunday.
GRADED PREDICTION: 3* Oakland / Buffalo OVER 36
Cajun-Sports Free NFL Selection
Time / Date: 1:00 EST / Sunday September 21
Game: Carolina Panthers vs. Minnesota Vikings
Line Origin: BetCris @ 11:30 EST September 19
Grade / Prediction: 2* Carolina Panthers +3.5
Analysis:
The 0-2 Minnesota Vikings host the 2-0 Carolina Panthers on Sunday afternoon in the Twin Cities. This is a tale of two quarterbacks with the Vikings Tarvaris Jackson experiment failing to produce winners and the return of the Panthers QB Jake Delhomme which has led to a 2-0 start for Carolina .
Many so-called experts had Minnesota winning the NFC North Division before the season started and although it’s still early those predictions have taken a major hit with the Vikings poor performance in their first two games of the season.
Carolina gets another boost this week with the return of their best wide-receiver and one of the leagues best in Steven Smith. This adds another dimension to the Panthers offensive scheme.
On the technical front we have a system that tells us to PLAY ON NFL road underdogs when facing a team that has no wins on the year after Week One of the season, 18-4-2 ATS. We also know that the Panthers are 20-1 ATS as a non-division road underdog facing a team with a winning percentage of .550 or worse. Game Three NFL favorites of 5 or less points who are winless on the year are 3-19 ATS.
Finally we have an NFL Power System that says; In Game 3, play ON a non-winless team (not a favorite of 7+ points or underdog of more than 5 points) vs. a winless opponent off 2 underdog SU losses in its last 2 games, 19-0-1 ATS since 1995.
The combination of fundamental and technical support in this contest gives us our NFL 2* Complimentary Selection of the Week.
GRADED PREDICTION: 2* Carolina Panthers 23 Minnesota Vikings 19
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Frank Rosenthal
SUNDAY, SEPTEMBER 21, 2008
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MLB
953 PADRES EVEN SB
959 DBACKS-140 SB
961 PHILLY-105 SB
UNDER 9.5 SB+
963 GIANTS UNDER 7.5 SB+
968 TRIBE-140 SB
976 KC+135 SB
977 ANGELS-125 SB
NOTE:
PMG=ADVERTISED PITCHERS MUST GO
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NFL - WEEK 3
394 BILLS-9 SB
400 SKINS-3 SB+
401 DOLPHINS+12.5 SB
UNDER 37 SB
405 PANTHERS+3.5 SB+
UNDER 37.5 SB+
407 RAMS+10 SB+
410 49ERS-4 SB
415 JAGS+5 SB
420 PACK+3 SB
UNDER 52 SB+
SUNDAY, SEPTEMBER 21, 2008
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MLB
953 PADRES EVEN SB
959 DBACKS-140 SB
961 PHILLY-105 SB
UNDER 9.5 SB+
963 GIANTS UNDER 7.5 SB+
968 TRIBE-140 SB
976 KC+135 SB
977 ANGELS-125 SB
NOTE:
PMG=ADVERTISED PITCHERS MUST GO
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NFL - WEEK 3
394 BILLS-9 SB
400 SKINS-3 SB+
401 DOLPHINS+12.5 SB
UNDER 37 SB
405 PANTHERS+3.5 SB+
UNDER 37.5 SB+
407 RAMS+10 SB+
410 49ERS-4 SB
415 JAGS+5 SB
420 PACK+3 SB
UNDER 52 SB+
Gina
Cincinnati Bengals at New York Giants
The Giants led by quarterback Eli Manning are playing sound and should have no problems against the sorry Bengals. Go with the G-Men. Cincinnati's offense will have a big assignment against the Giants potent defense at the Meadowlands.
New York Giants -13
Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans
Tennessee's defense will control this fight at LP Field. To boot, Houston has played dreadful away from home, 1-7 straight-up and against the spread in their last eight road games.
Tennessee Titans -4½
Cincinnati Bengals at New York Giants
The Giants led by quarterback Eli Manning are playing sound and should have no problems against the sorry Bengals. Go with the G-Men. Cincinnati's offense will have a big assignment against the Giants potent defense at the Meadowlands.
New York Giants -13
Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans
Tennessee's defense will control this fight at LP Field. To boot, Houston has played dreadful away from home, 1-7 straight-up and against the spread in their last eight road games.
Tennessee Titans -4½
Dave Malinsky
Cleveland Browns @ Baltimore Ravens
PICK:4* CLEVELAND/BALTIMORE Under
After playing some of the highest scoring games of any team in the NFL LY, the Browns have opened with a pair of dead Under’s. Yes, the weather in Cleveland on Sunday night played a big part, but there is more to it than those conditions, and we believe that the markets are still not in the right place with this team.
Derek Anderson was thought of as being little more than a journeyman QB before those early-season explosions in 2007. The addition of Jamal Lewis was not considered to be all that major, because he was getting on in years and appeared to have lost a step. But after that surprising beginning to the campaign the wheels came off for Anderson, Lewis and the entire offense down the stretch, and this season has started the same way. Anderson sports a 57.1 passer rating, with only one touchdown pass in 56 attempts, while Lewis has mustered just 3.1 per attempt overland, which includes a 24 yard run. Take that burst away, and he is at 76 yards in 31 carries. Ouch. And yes, those numbers came against quality defenses, but the Baltimore unit that they face this week is even better, and our sources tell us that the Browns are likely to be without both Braylon Edwards and Donte Stallworth. That makes it even more difficult to stretch the field to open running room for Lewis, and it means another long day for the offense.
The flip side is that we do believe the Cleveland defense will be much tougher up front over the course of the season with the added presence of Shaun Rogers, and he is a significant factor against a Baltimore team that will try to work between the tackles as much as possible, taking pressure away from Joe Flacco. The Ravens ran the ball on 61.3 percent of their snaps in that opening win over Cincinnati, and many of the passes that were thrown was short ball-control tosses, with six of Flacco’s 15 completions going to the running backs. The focus here will be much more on managing the game and avoiding early mistakes, instead of trying to make plays, and that helps to set the proper early tone for a game that we believe never will speed up.
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Cleveland Browns @ Baltimore Ravens
PICK:4* CLEVELAND/BALTIMORE Under
After playing some of the highest scoring games of any team in the NFL LY, the Browns have opened with a pair of dead Under’s. Yes, the weather in Cleveland on Sunday night played a big part, but there is more to it than those conditions, and we believe that the markets are still not in the right place with this team.
Derek Anderson was thought of as being little more than a journeyman QB before those early-season explosions in 2007. The addition of Jamal Lewis was not considered to be all that major, because he was getting on in years and appeared to have lost a step. But after that surprising beginning to the campaign the wheels came off for Anderson, Lewis and the entire offense down the stretch, and this season has started the same way. Anderson sports a 57.1 passer rating, with only one touchdown pass in 56 attempts, while Lewis has mustered just 3.1 per attempt overland, which includes a 24 yard run. Take that burst away, and he is at 76 yards in 31 carries. Ouch. And yes, those numbers came against quality defenses, but the Baltimore unit that they face this week is even better, and our sources tell us that the Browns are likely to be without both Braylon Edwards and Donte Stallworth. That makes it even more difficult to stretch the field to open running room for Lewis, and it means another long day for the offense.
The flip side is that we do believe the Cleveland defense will be much tougher up front over the course of the season with the added presence of Shaun Rogers, and he is a significant factor against a Baltimore team that will try to work between the tackles as much as possible, taking pressure away from Joe Flacco. The Ravens ran the ball on 61.3 percent of their snaps in that opening win over Cincinnati, and many of the passes that were thrown was short ball-control tosses, with six of Flacco’s 15 completions going to the running backs. The focus here will be much more on managing the game and avoiding early mistakes, instead of trying to make plays, and that helps to set the proper early tone for a game that we believe never will speed up.
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Steven Budin-CEO
SUNDAY'S PICK
50 DIME
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES
Note from Steve Budin -
The price on Philadelphia has been steady for days at 3 1/2 points.
If you get Philadelphia at 3 1/2, buy down the 1/2 point to -3 so you get a push with a field goal victory.
Obviously, if the line is -4, no action is necessary.
SUNDAY'S PICK
50 DIME
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES
Note from Steve Budin -
The price on Philadelphia has been steady for days at 3 1/2 points.
If you get Philadelphia at 3 1/2, buy down the 1/2 point to -3 so you get a push with a field goal victory.
Obviously, if the line is -4, no action is necessary.
Kevin O’Neill The Max
Erik Scheponik NFL (1-0, 100%)
CLEVELAND BROWNS/BALTIMORE RAVENS UNDER 38.5
Dave Fobare NFL (0-1, 0%)
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS +4.5
Kevin O’Neill NFL (0-2, 0%)
ARIZONA CARDINALS +3
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS +5.5
Matty Baiungo NFL (2-0, 100%)
CAROLINA PANTHERS +3.5
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Erik Scheponik NFL (1-0, 100%)
CLEVELAND BROWNS/BALTIMORE RAVENS UNDER 38.5
Dave Fobare NFL (0-1, 0%)
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS +4.5
Kevin O’Neill NFL (0-2, 0%)
ARIZONA CARDINALS +3
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS +5.5
Matty Baiungo NFL (2-0, 100%)
CAROLINA PANTHERS +3.5
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