Service Plays Sunday 9/21/08

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CKO

Confidential Kick Off

NFL CKO 11 (0-0, 0%)


NFL CKO 10 (1-1, 50%)
ATLANTA FALCONS -5



10 *ATLANTA over Kansas City
Late Score Forecast:

*ATLANTA 28 - Kansas City 13
(Sunday, September 21)

Atlanta has turned the page and appears set to make some real progress this season, and one key test will come
in this game against the Chiefs. The Falcon running game is much more lively with free agent RB Michael Turner
and third year pro Jerious Norwood combining for 373 YR and 6.6 ypc in the first two games. Although Atlanta
rookie QB Matt Ryan made some mistakes last week under the pressure of the Buc defense (4 sacks, threw 2
ints. at Tampa), returning home against a team that ranked 28th against the run last season and yielded 300 YR
last week against the Raiders, he figures to play more like he did in home-opening win against Detroit. Injury to
K.C. QBs Croyle and Huard might leave them with No. 3 Thigpen, and Chiefs 0-9 SU last 9 visiting non-AFC West foes.



TOTALS:

UNDER (42) in the Cincy-N.Y. Giants game?Bengals (8.5 ppg) can?t get offense going; G-Men (9-3 ?under? last 12 at home) prefer to smother opponents with defense...
OVER (44?) in the Detroit-San Francisco game?Lions? defense resembling a sieve; Detroit has gone ?over? 14 of last 18 away!


HONORABLE MENTION (Nine-Rated Games):


DENVER (-5?) vs. New Orleans?Uplifting win against Chargersand emergence of WR Eddie Royal to complement Brandon Marshall make Broncos worth a look facing Saint team still dealing with defensive problems.

 

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The Goldsheet

NFL Key Releases (2-4, 33%)
HOUSTON TEXANS +5
CAROLINA PANTHERS +3.5
NEW YORK JETS/SAN DIEGO CHARGERS OVER 44




Houston 20 - TENNESSEE 13?Even without the unexpected ?bye? week and distractions caused by Hurricane Ike, Houston figured to have its hands full with the rock?em, sock?em Tennessee defense that was respectfully referred to as some ?animals? by Jag QB David Garrard. But Titans still seeking to develop consistency under new o.c. Heimerdinger?s play-calling, and Kerry Collins is hampered by Tennessee?s WR limitations. SCOUT s still believe rookie RB Steve Slaton could be a rainmaker for Texans. And, now, well-rested, wellcoached Houston eager to avoid 0-2 start and stay close in AFC South race.
(07-Tenn. 38-HOU. 36...T.23-18 T.39/155 H.12/39 H.27/44/3/294 T.25/42/0/267 T.2 H.3)
(07-TENN. 28-Hou. 20...T.23-17 T.29/153 H.25/119 T.21/31/1/229 H.20/35/1/196 T.0 H.1)
(07-Tennessee -1 38-36, TENNESSEE -3' 28-20...SR: Tennessee 10-2)



Carolina 22 - MINNESOTA 13?All of the pieces seem to be in place for Minnesota?except at QB (no wonder owner Zygi Wilf risked tampering charges with his interest in Brett Favre during the summer!). But as long as it?s Tarvaris Jackson, have little interest supporting Vikes vs. quality foes, of which rebounding Carolina (2-0 for first time since ?03 Super Bowl year) certainly qualifies. Tough-minded Panthers and physical Oregon rookie RB J. Stewart (77 YR & 2 TDs vs. rugged Bears) not likely to abandon infantry assault as do most Minnesota foes. Jake Delhomme smiling from Charlotte to Greensboro this week with return of home run WR Steve Smith from suspension, especially vs. Minny secondary.
(06-MINNESOTA P 16-13 (OT)...SR: Minnesota 4-3)


MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 22

OVER THE TOTAL *SAN DIEGO 28 - NY Jets 26?Chargers upset about getting the worst of the officiating last week in Denver, and they also greatly miss the intimidating presence of OLB Shawne Merriman, as the remaining S.D. pass rushers were able to apply little pressure last week in Denver, with Jay Cutler sacked only once while passing for 350 yards and 4 TDs, plus the game-winning two-pointer. That gave the Bolts two straight lastsecond losses. With L.T. limping, maybe they don?t pull away from Favre, who can trade throws with Philip Rivers and help put this one ?over.?
(05-San Diego -6 31-26...SR: San Diego 18-12-1)

 

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Red Sheet

NFL Red Sheet 88 (1-1, 50%)
NEW YORK GIANTS -13.5


NEW YORK GIANTS 31 - Cincinnati 10 - (1:00) -- Line opened at NYGiants minus 13?, & is now minus 13. That's right, we've gone against the defending champions in both of their games so far, figuring the losses of Strahan & Umenyiora on that defensive line would be a bit too much to overcome, in trying to match LY's splendid defense, which simply ruled the post season. But the 'Skins were completely stymied in their opener, with Manning & Co exploding in game 2. Sure, the Rams post the worst "D" in the NFL, but this Bengal squad is knee deep in problems, with team unity nowhere to be found. Palmer has led an "O" which has managed just 17 pts & 19 FDs in its 2 outings to date, & won't dent NY "D". RATING: NEW YORK GIANTS 88

NEAR CHOICES (Rated 87): Seattle, Carolina, SanDiego

 

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<TABLE style="TABLE-LAYOUT: fixed" cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=5 width="100%"><TBODY><TR><TD vAlign=top width="85%" height="100%">NELLY's Sportsline

Week of September 15 to September 22, 2008

NFL KEY SELECTIONS

RATING 5 WASHINGTON (-3) over Arizona
RATING 4 MIAMI (+13?) over New England
RATING 3 SAN FRANCISCO (-3?) over Detroit
RATING 2 JACKSONVILLE (+6) over Indianapolis
RATING 1 TAMPA BAY (+3) over Chicago
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Carlo Campanella

Surprising everyone, Jacksonville has opened the season up at 0-2 while losing both games as Favorites. Now they head winless to Indianapolis (1-1) for their first Division game of the season, against the team that is the reigning Division champs. This is an extremely high pressure situation for Jacksonville, as this is a road game against a Division opponent and the first time they find themselves in the Dog role this year! Thats a lot to overcome, especially against a team as talented as Indianapolis, so well lay the points knowing that Jacksonville is 0-7 ATS against a Division foe in the first meeting of the season series and the line is 5 points or less since they revamped the AFC South to a 4-team Division. While its surprising that Jacksonville hasnt won a game yet, its also surprising that the Colts are just 1-1 and the win was by just a field goal! With 2 games under their belts, the Colts will turn things around with an explosive game as we find them at 8-0 AST hosting a Division opponent when its the first of back-to-back Division battles!

7* Play On Indianapolis

 

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CAPPERS ACCESS

Sun (NFL) Titans
Sun (NFL) Bears
Sun (NFL) 49ers
Sun-Night (NFL) Packers

 

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MARC LAWRENCE Playbook Best Bets


MARC LAWRENCE Playbook

NFL Best Bet 5 (2-1, 67%)
CAROLINA PANTHERS +3.5
ARIZONA CARDINALS / WASHINGTON REDSKINS Over 42


NFL Best Bet 4 (1-1, 50%)
HOUSTON TEXANS +5
DETROIT LIONS / SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS Over 46.5




3* NO Saints, Titans over
4* Hou Texans, SF 49ers over
5* Car Panthers, Redskins over



* BEST BET
The Vikings were many a ?Wise Guys? choice to win the NFC North Division while making their way to the playoffs. A strengthened defense with a powerful running game made for solid reasoning. Missing from the
equation, though, is a quarterback. When they go down this week it?s safe to say Tarvaris Jackson will be carrying a clipboard sooner than later. The Jackson experiment aside, the Panthers have capitalized on the return of QB Jake Delhomme, vaulting to a 2-0 start sans the services of his best WR Steven Smith. Like the Terminator, Smith?s back this week and these Cats are lovin? it. The most mind-boggling stat of all is at work here as Carolina is 20-1 ATS as a non-division road dog against .550 or less opposition in their franchise history, including 20 wins in a row! With Game Three winless favorites of less than 5 points just 3-19-2 ATS since 1990, you?d be wise to join the guys who realize Carolina is a live Road Cat!

Carolina over MINNESOTA by 10



4* BEST BET
Thanks to Ike the Texans will tackle the Titans with the benefi t of an extra wink of rest. And if you are winless in the NFL, that?s a nice handicapping combination. That?s confi rmed by the fact that teams in this league that have yet to win a game are 32-19-1 ATS when taking points with the benefi t of an extra week to prepare. More important, Houston needs this game like blood given Tennessee?s 2-0 start to the season. Jeff Fisher wears a label as a good dog. When laying points against winless teams he is just 2-6 ATS in his NFL career, including 1-6 as a single-digit favorite. Titans drop to 1-7 ATS as September chalk against avenging division foes here today. Texans get back in the mix of things today.

Houston over TENNESSEE by 7




3* BEST BET
Intent on making more than a point, the man on a mission stamped
himself with a stirring two-point conversion to steal last week?s game
away from San Diego. Mike Shanahan?s job this week will be to keep his
team at the same level they were during the Charger game. That may be
a problem considering the Broncos are in the middle of a season opening
division sandwich. To that extent they are 0-8 ATS in this role (division
games before and after with a non-division game in the middle). They are
also just 2-9 ATS at home off back-to-back SU and ATS wins. The Saints will gladly comply, sporting a 7-0 ATS mark as road dogs of more than 3 points off a loss when taking on an opponent off a SU and ATS victory. With New Orleans boss Sean Payton 6-1 ATS in his NFL career as a dog against .500 or better opposition, look for venue to turn into Mile Sigh today.
New Orleans over DENVER by 7

 

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John Fisher

Detroit Lions vs. San Francisco 49ers (NFL)
Sep 21, 2008 4:05 PM EDT
Play: Detroit Lions

2 STAR play. I like the Lions match up with skilled WR's vs. a young 49er secondary. Hopefully Kitna does not hand the Niners the farm this time. A good back and forth game with Detroit winning straight up. Lions 27 49ers 24



Houston Texans vs. Tennessee Titans (NFL)
Sep 21, 2008 1:00 PM EDT

Play: Tennessee Titans
Titans arent a glamourous team but just wear down opponents. Lead the league in points against at 8.5 and are stout against the run 60ypg. Plus the Texans have been without a home since hurricane IKE. 2 STAR PLAY on Titans: 20 10

 

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ARTHUR RALPH

Sunday
Atlanta Falcons

 

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TOM FREESE

Game: New Orleans Saints at Denver Broncos Sep 21 2008 4:05PM
Prediction: over

Reason: New Orleans is 24-8-2 OVER their last 34 road games vs. a team with a winning home record and they are 7-0 OVER after allowing more than 350 yards in their last game. The Saints are 7-0 OVER their last 7 games going back to last year. Denver is 12-1-1 OVER their last 14 home games and they are 10-1-1 OVER after allowing more than 350 yards in their last game. The Broncos are 19-7-1 OVER off an ATS loss and they are 9-4 OVER after scoring 30 or more points in their last game. PLAY ON 'OVER'

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

JIMMY BOYD

New England Patriots -12

If there has been a time recently when the Dolphins have had a chance to beat the Patriots, one would think that time is now as the absence of Tom Brady has forced New England to be a bit more conservative offensively.
In their first game in seven years without Tom Brady starting under center, the New England Patriots certainly didn?t look like the team that set an NFL record for points while going 16-0 last year. Odds makers continue to make Patriots backers lay steep chalk however, setting the line at -12.
While New England doesn?t seem to have the same big play ability as it had last year, it does resemble the team that has won three Super Bowls earlier this decade. The Pats will try to go back to their roots to extend their regular season winning streak to 22 games on Sunday.
After Brady went down with a season-ending knee injury just eight minutes into New England?s opener with Kansas City, fans and odds makers alike wondered what to expect from the Pats. The response was favoring the Jets against the Patriots last week. Coach Bill Belichick?s team responded with a blue collar effort in a 19-10 victory at the New York Jets.
Matt Cassel has not been flashy or spectacular, but he has been rock solid since taking over for Brady and we saw what being rock solid can do with Eli Manning a season ago. Cassel went 16 of 23 for 165 yards and most importantly no turnovers.
Without Brady, the Patriots appear unlikely to rack up passing yards and blowouts as they did in 2007. However, even with Brady at quarterback, that wasn?t the team?s style in 2003-04, when they went 14-2 and won Super Bowls in back-to-back seasons despite averaging fewer than 220 passing yards per game.
They were even less prolific on the offensive side of the football in 2001 when Tom Brady took over for an injured Drew Bledsoe and led the team to its first Super Bowl championship. Perhaps history will repeat itself with Cassel.
One thing the Pats have been able to rely on is a stiff defense. It has only allowed 10 points per game in each of the first two games of the season.
Despite the Patriots? success since Belichick took over in 2000, they?re just 9-7 against the Dolphins over that span - their worst record against any AFC East opponent.
Miami has fallen into a rough patch the past few seasons, and the team is not off to an encouraging start, losing each of its first two games, but if anyone can get the ship sailing in the right direction it's Bill Parcells.
Miami knows that a big win this week would do a lot for the confidence of this football team but that seems like a tall task after the way it looked in a 31-10 loss at Arizona last Sunday.
In just his second game with the Dolphins, QB Chad Pennington was pulled in favor of rookie Chad Henne, who directed Miami?s lone touchdown drive. The Dolphins have said that Pennington will start again this Week.The Dolphins haven?t been able to move the ball on the ground either. Ricky Williams has only 52 rushing yards and backfield mate Ronnie Brown has only 48.
We don?t expect to see the Pats completely obliterate the Dolphins, but we do expect them to continue their dominance, winning this one by at least two touchdowns. Bet the Patriots at -12

 

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The VEGAS STEAM LINE

Take HOUSTON/TENNESSEE OVER the total of 39

 

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JIMMY THE MOOSE

Game: Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens Sep 21 2008 4:15PM
Prediction: Cleveland Browns

Reason: The Browns are too good of a team to start the season at 0-2 and won't fall to 0-3. After losing to the Cowboys and Steelers Cleveland will be glad to see a weaker opponent in the Baltimore Ravens. In their last 12 games vs. a team with a winning record the Browns are 11-1 ATS. Cleveland is 7-1 ATS in their last 8 vs. AFC team's. The Browns are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games overall. The Ravens are 4-14 ATS in their last 18 games. In their last 14 conference games the Ravens are 3-11 ATS. Baltimore is 0-5 ATS in the last 5 meetings between the clubs. Play on the Cleveland Browns +.

 

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<TABLE style="TABLE-LAYOUT: fixed" cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=5 width="100%"><TBODY><TR><TD vAlign=top width="85%" height="100%">DCI

Sunday, September 21, 2008
ATLANTA 19, Kansas City 12
BUFFALO 28, Oakland 14
CHICAGO 24, Tampa Bay 13
Carolina 21, MINNESOTA 19
NEW ENGLAND 30, Miami 0
N.Y. GIANTS 24, Cincinnati 0
TENNESSEE 27, Houston 16
WASHINGTON 20, Arizona 15
DENVER 42, New Orleans 31
SAN FRANCISCO 41, Detroit 31
SEATTLE 36, St. Louis 24
BALTIMORE 7, Cleveland 6
INDIANAPOLIS 15, Jacksonville 12
PHILADELPHIA 28, Pittsburgh 26
GREEN BAY 40, Dallas 35

Monday, September 22, 2008
SAN DIEGO 32, N.Y. Jets 21
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Insider Sports Report

N.Y. Giants -13 over Cincinnati (NFL)

 

[ymmit2nd]

Scott Rickenbach's Pick Pack

NFL Guaranteed Pick
Guaranteed Plays
Matchup: Cleveland at Baltimore
Time: 4:15 PM EDT (Sun)

Play: Cleveland (+3 -110)
Line Source: BODOG
Posted on: September 21, 2008 @ 6:59:49 AM EDT
2* (Top Play) Cleveland Browns (+) @ Baltimore @ 4:15 ET – Yes, the Browns have some injury issues here but so do the Ravens. Also, it’s the “other issues” with the Ravens that are giving us some fantastic line value here. First off, they had an unwelcome bye last week because of their game with the Texans getting postponed. With that postponement, Baltimore also lost any momentum they had from Week One. In their opening game of the season they did beat the Bengals but that is what is also giving us line value here. People are talking about how solid the Ravens looked in Week One but they played a team that is off to a horrific start and Cincinnati has looked downright “soft” so far this season. Contrast that with the Browns schedule! Sure, they’re 0-2 and sure they have had some issues with getting totally overwhelmed by Dallas in Week One and making costly mistakes in Week Two’s loss versus Pittsburgh. However, therein lies the key with this match-up. The Browns have played two of the top teams in the league and, in last week’s game, they truly did have a great shot at the outright win as a home dog versus the Steelers. They were simply done in by some costly mistakes.


Speaking of mistakes, we’ll still gladly take Derek Anderson of the Browns over Joe Flacco of the Ravens. The Browns QB is off to an unsettled start this season but he’s had to face two straight tough defense while Flacco faced a weak Bengals defense in his only appearance. Yes, Anderson is once again dealing with a tough Ravens defense this week but this is still an aging unit that is not quite as solid as it once was. The Browns offense does have the weapons to take advantage and their injury issues are certainly not significant enough to scare us off of this game. What we foresee happening here is the Ravens coming in a little too confident after their Week One win and they also lose their ‘edge’ after last week’s unplanned bye. Conversely, the Browns will come into this game with a head full of steam as this team always gets up for playing the Ravens, the team that bolted Cleveland in the middle of the night to head east to Baltimore years ago.

The Browns are 0-2 on the season and need this win and we feel they will catch the Ravens a little off-guard here. This is very significant because the Browns offense is absolutely capable of jumping out to an early lead here and the Ravens are not built well to play catch up football. QB Flacco is still inexperienced and he’s dealing with a hungry Browns defense that played a solid “bend but don’t break” style versus the Steelers last week. The Browns are 5-1 against the spread after facing Pittsburgh and a lot of that has to do with a “step down in class” after facing a tough Steelers team. That is the case again in this particular instance and we look for the outright road win for the Browns! Play Cleveland plus the points as a Top Play selection.

 

[ymmit2nd]

Sun, 09/21/08 - 4:05 PMLenny Del Genio | NFL Total
double-dime bet408 SEA / 407 STL Under 44.5 BetUS
Under St. Louis/Seattle is our 20* NFC Total of the Month

 

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The Gold Medal Club

ST.Louis @ Seattle
PLAY: ST.Louis +9.5

A couple of 0-2 teams, and for good reason, both teams have been unimpressive through the first 2 games of the season.Now with the Public now fully aware of the "dangers" of going 0-3, they seek comfort in Seattle.
Seattle is a shell of there former self, for a rash of injuries to the entire receiving corps, Hasselbeck has no one to throw the ball to.The was vaunted Seattle defense, has given up the most points in the league, 34 to Buffalo, and 33 to San Fran.Too much chalk here, this one goes to the wire, 3 points would have made more sense.

 

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JB'S COMPUTER PICKS

Cleveland Indians -150
Tampa Bay Rays -115
Los Angeles Angels -140

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Brian Gabrielle

Last Week: Jimmie Johnson could only manage a second-place finish for us, and the Gibbs cars were never really contenders (though they did manage top 10s), which means we didn't come away from Loudon happy. We lost the 0.5 units we wagered, but on the season we're still sitting at a profit of 5.19 units on 34.5 units wagered, a return of 15%. We've also given you a winning week in 19 of 26 events. (Note that if you'd eschewed the relatively conservative betting pattern we outline below, and simply bet one unit per wager we recommend, last week you'd have lost three units; for the season, that would leave you with a profit of 12.73 units on 99 units wagered, a return of 12.9%. But there's clearly a bit more week-to-week risk associated with that strategy.)

Take Carl Edwards (+500), 1/6th unit. This week, it's back to the Monster Mile in Dover. In three Car of Tomorrow events at this track, Edwards has finished third, first and second, and considering he won at Bristol just a few weeks ago, I'd say King Carl has got this racing-on-concrete thing figured out. He's currently the points co-leader, and while there's something of a jinx there (in the four-year history of the Chase for the Championship, no leader coming into Dover has been the leader leaving Dover), I think Edwards has a chance to be dominant Sunday.

Take Kyle Busch (+400), 1/6th unit. The Shrub didn't fare well at Loudon, squandering the lead he spent the entire "regular season" building when his rear swaybar cracked. However, Busch only knows one speed: breakneck. He'll be back among the contenders on Sunday, not playing it one ounce of conservative as he seeks to repeat his Monster Mile win from back in June. I say he's got a really great chance of doing it.

Take Greg Biffle (+800), 1/6th unit. Yes, I actually do believe the Chase could begin with a back-to-back winner. I actually consider Biffle's win at Loudon last week something of a shocker: he'd finished 31st, 13th and 21st in three COT races at the Miracle Mile. By comparison, his COT finishes at Dover (sixth, second and third) look downright amazing. Like his teammate Edwards, The Biff is also very good at Bristol in the "new car," and I give him a very good chance of hitting on the right setup again on Sunday.