NFL Victorious Plays:
Oakland @ Kansas City
Both teams started this season with a defeat. Oakland got trashed by Denver while Kansas lost against New England in a low scoring game. Huard and Russel have pretty much the same average in completed passes but Huard have better yard gain in each attempt. Kansas showed last weekend that their defensive pack is really there to make life harder to opponent offensive players and New England is not exactly the same as Oakland. As for the defensive pack of Oakland we can say totally the opposite: very easy to get pass them. Including pre-season, Oakland never got more than 25 points against, which means that they would have to score at least 12 points to get the Over. With our system we get that we won't see too much points on this game and the line shows perfectly well that this will be a tight game. Go for the Under on this one.
Recommendation: 3* Under 36 @ -110
Buffalo @ Jacksonville
Mixed starts for both teams. Jacksonville lost at Tennessee while Buffalo won against Seattle. Garrard and Edwards couldn't be closer in terms of individual stats after their first game. The only main difference is the number of interceptions where Edwards have none and Garrard have two. If we include pre-season, Jacksonville never managed to cover the line in a home game. Buffalo on the other hand, in their two away games, managed to cover the spread in all those games. So, isn't this the information that would make you go with Buffalo? Well, not for us. Jacksonville playing at home is not exactly the same and the line shows us that. If Buffalo were to be so less of an underdog and Jacksonville not so favorite, why was the line set so high? Well, because Jacksonville will win and cover the spread. The line is already reaching 4.5 in some places but we think it won't drop more than that. Jacksonville is the play.
Recommendation: 1* Jacksonville -4.5 @ -110
Miami @ Arizona
Pretty much similar to the previous game where the home team is coming after a victory and the away team after a defeat. Miami, a typical passing run team against Arizona, a more balanced team between passing and rushing. Defensively speaking, Miami will struggle against the rushing way of play from Arizona and that would be a great reason for our play. We expect Arizona to make it hard for Miami to advance through pass and run and that would be a huge advantage for them. Besides this, Miami, on grass, is not the best team.
Recommendation: 1* Arizona -6.5 @ -110
San Diego @ Denver
These two teams played a high scoring game last weekend and everyone seems to expect the same this Week. According to our system that might be a mistake as neither of the teams will have the same amount of yards earned, in average. Both defensives will have a tougher game to earn yards. Completion percentage for both quarterbacks is not amazing but none of them have Interceptions against. Last games between these two where the line was higher than 44, the game ended, always, as an Under one. Today we expect the same.
Recommendation: 1* Under 45.5 @-110