Service Plays Sunday 9/14/08

[THECHICAGOCONNECTION]

Chicago Sports Connection

CHICAGO SPORTS CONNECTION

NFC NORTH Play Of The Week (2)
Both games 1:00 EDT
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DETROIT +3 vs Packers
The Packers come off a big win for Rodgers...they are on a short week ...also a sandwich game (Dallas next week on Sunday night).
And Detroit is a hungry team ...off and embarrassing loss against ATL.
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CAROLINA -3 vs Bears
It will be tough for the Bears to win two straight on the road.
This line would be 6 or 7 if they didn't beat the Colts on Sunday night.

The Bears went from a team predicted to win 6 games...to a team that will start the season 2-0 on the road ?
I doubt it.
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I will text you the WiseGuy plays @ 11:30 EDT on Sunday.

GL2us

 

[ymmit2nd]

Champion Sports

NFL Sunday, September 14:

Buffalo vs. Jacksonville 1:00 EST
Take Buffalo +4.5

Buffalo has solid coaching, strong effort, outstanding special teams plays. Jacksonville can't run. Somewhat of a "revenge" game. Buffalo has offensive improvement. The Bills are off a big home win - will have strong frame of mind. Jacksonville looked horrible in preseason.



Tampa Bay vs. Atlanta
4:05 EST Take Tampa Bay -7
Tampa Bay defense ranked in top 10. The Buccaneers swept the Falcons last season winning 31-7 on the road and 37-3 at home.



Seattle vs. San Francisco UNDER 38 4:05 EST
The last four in this series have gone under. The Seahawks best receivers are hurt. The Seahawks swept San Fran last year, winning 23-3 on the road and 24-0 at home. The past four in the series have gone "under".

 

[ymmit2nd]

Sun, 09/14/08 - 1:00 PMBen Burns | NFL Total
triple-dime bet200 DET / 199 GBP Under 45.5 Bodog

Look for the 'new era' of this rivalry to begin with a relatively low-scoring contest. *NFC TOY

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Fast Eddie Sports NFL

10* $100 Regular Plays -

#220 - Cleveland Browns

 

[ymmit2nd]

Sun, 09/14/08 - 1:00 PMKing Creole | NFL Total
double-dime bet194 CIN / 193 TEN Over 37.0 Bodog
Analysis: 1:05pm ET / TENNESSEE TITANS @ CINCINNATI BENGALS
2** BEST BET on: OVER THE TOTAL
*optimum OU line would be 36.5 or less

1:05pm ET / NEW ORLEANS SAINTS @ WASHINGTON REDSKINS
1* Play on: OVER THE TOTAL
*optimum OU line would be 42 or less

1:05pm ET / Chicago Bears @ Carolina Panthers
1* Play on: UNDER the TOTAL
*optimum OU line would be 37.5 or less

1:05pm ET / NEW YORK GIANTS @ ST LOUIS RAMS
1* Play on: OVER THE TOTAL
*optimum OU line would be 41.5 or less

4:05pm ET / Atlanta Falcons @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
1* Play on: UNDER the TOTAL
*optimum OU line would be 37.5 or higher

Let's lay out all applicable OU Systems that we queried in regards to the week two NFL schedule. We'll start first with a handful of solid OU RUSHING Systems.

ALL four of the teams involved in King?s 2 UNDERS are off gaudy Game One RUSHING totals. Chic:183 yds... Caro:142 yds... Atl: 318 yds... TB: 146 yds. And all four teams are therefore active this week in some variation of a solid ?UNDER? rushing System.
GAME TWO road teams are 0-5 O/U since 1999 off a SU win w/ 140+ rushing yds against an opponent ALSO off a game w/140+ rushing yds. Both CHICAGO and ATLANTA qualify.

What really jumps out at you from last week is Atlanta?s 42 rushes for 318 frickin yards in the win over the Lions. Only 11 NFL teams have rushed for 300+ yards in this decade. And in their very next game, UNDERDOGS (or ?pick em) have gone a PERFECT 0-4 O/U.

In a hot OVER run over the last 2 seasons, one of today's teams applies in an OU Rushing 'futility' System.
In ALL games, Underdogs of 7 > points playing off a SU loss in which they rushed for < 50 yards (RAMS) are 12-1 O/U in the last 2 years.

Speaking of the Rams, their woeful week one loss of 35-3 to the Eagles has them active in multiple OU Systems.
Since 2000 in ALL games, NFL teams off a SU road loss of 35 > points are 24-9 O/U... and a PERFECT 9-0 O/U in the last 3 years. If the OU line is 40 > points, the results are 12-1 O/U since 2000 (RAMS).
In the last 12 months, NFL home teams playing off a SU loss in which they allowed 300+ passing yards are 17-3 O/U (RAMS).
In the last 2 years ALL home dogs are 19-4 O/U off a SU loss in which they allowed 4 > sacks (RAMS).

Week Two teams playing off a week one SU DIVISION win are prime "play ON" candidates for OVER players. The results are particularly good when taking on non-division competition in week two. That would have us looking at HIGH-scoring results for the GIANTS, SAINTS, and TITANS.
This System is based on the fact that the two teams that are playing each other are actually BOTH off a division game:
11-1 O/U since 2003 in ALL games: Non-division teams playing off a SU home DIVISION WIN versus an opponent off a SU road DIVISION loss... with an OU line of 44 < points. NEW ORLEANS is a qualifier, based on their home win vs the Bucs last week and Washington's road loss to the Giants last week. Your other qualifier this week is TENNESSEE. They beat the Jags last week at home while Cincy lost on the road against the Ravens.

GAME TWO road teams who are off a BIG division win of 8 > points are 8-2 O/U since 1996... and a PERFECT 6-0 O/U in the last 10 years (GIANTS).

"Tight" lines for teams off a dog win have resulted in high-scoring games.
In the last 4 years, NFL favs or dogs of 3 < points are 11-1 O/U when playing off a SU win as a dog of 4 < points (TITANS).
In the last 10 years, NFL Underdogs playing off a DOUBLE DIGIT ATS division win (TITANS) aew 12-2 O/U.
In the last 2 years, NFL favorites of 8 < points are 12-1 O/U after a road game in which they had 26 < minutes in offensive time of possession (BENGALS).

Let's examine what happens when teams come into Game Two off a REALLY big game one DOG win (like Carolina and Chicago).
GAME TWO teams off a DD SU win as a dog of +4 > pts (PANTHERS) have gone a PERFECT 0-6 O/U in the last 10 years.

SEPTEMBER home favs playing off a SU win as a dog of 7+ pts (BEARS) are a PERFECT 0-5 O/U since 2000.

Last week?s final score in the Carolina / San Diego game was 26-24. It was one of only TWO games in which both teams scored 20 or more points. The only other qualifier was the Saints vs Bucs (24-20 final score). Here?s what the database spit out:
GAME TWO home teams who scored AND allowed 20+ are 1-11 O/U since 2002... and 0-4 O/U off a SU win (PANTHERS + BUCS).

What's the best (or most profitable) OU Line range for week two?
If you're looking for the Best OVER results, check this out:
NFL WEEK TWO games in which the OU line is 40 to 43 points have gone 16-5 O/U since the 2001 season... and 10-2 O/U in NON-division games. Your ONLY two qualifiers in this OU line range on Sunday are: RAMS vs GIANTS... and SAINTS vs REDSKINS. Another reason that we must play BOTH of them.

GAME TWO home favs of < 7 pts with an OU line if < 38 pts (BEARS / BUCS/ CHIEFS) are 0-6-1 O/U in the last 3 years.

The defending Super Bowl champs looked pretty sharp in their opening game on Thursday night against the Redskins. Based on that game, BOTH teams qualify in solid OVER Systems.
In the last 10 years, NFL teams off a SU DIVISION win on a THURSDAY are 12-4-1 O/U.... and 7-1-1 O/U on the road (GIANTS).
In the last 10 years, NFL non-division teams off a SU THURSDAY road loss are 8-2 O/U... including a PERFECT 6-0 O/U at home (REDSKINS).

 

[Heel_Yes]

Anyone have Dr. Bob's NFL picks?

 

[NickelsAndDimes]

any chance for Bobby Esposito from gametimewinners..if not some guys wanna split ? hes got an offer like i havent seen before 2 huge guarantees or you get the VIP services free for a month...this is all we need !!

 

[Spencer]

Teddy Covers? Thanks!

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

ace-ace / allan eastman -6,600 ytd nfl

$300 -106 Take #197 New Orleans (+1) over Washington (1 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 14)

$2500 -102 Take #212 Arizona (-6.5) over Miami (4 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 14)

$800 -108 Take #216 Houston (-4.5) over Baltimore (8:30 p.m., Mon, Sept. 15)

$200 -105 Take #217 San Diego (-1.5) over Denver (4 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 14)

$300 -105 First Half: Take #210 Seattle (-3.5) over San Francisco (4 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 14)

$2500 -105 Take ‘Under’ 36 Oakland at Kansas City (1 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 14)

$800 -104 Take ‘Over’ 37.5 Atlanta at Tampa Bay (4 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 14)
I

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

kodiak

10units:
Indi -1.5
Cinci pick
Miami +6.5
New England +1.5
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[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Dave Malinsky

GAME: San Diego Chargers @ Denver Broncos Sep 14, 2008 4:15PM
PICK: San Diego Chargers +1

4* SAN DIEGO over DENVER

Some of the biggest over-reactions in any calendar sports year come after the first week of NFL play. It is the only sport left where the betting “public” is still a significant factor in the setting of the lines, and that puts some outstanding situations into our laps. This is one of them, now that we can take the Chargers at +1.

San Diego buried Denver over eight quarters LY. The two games were won by a combined 64-6, with the scoreboard a pretty accurate reflection of what was happening on the field – the Chargers won the total offense by 297 yards. And with San Diego only scoring seven fourth quarter points, we can see that both games could have been even worse. And 2007 was not really anything new – the previous season brought a pair of wins by a total of 36 points, so the Chargers own a 4-0 advantage with Philip Rivers as the starting QB in this series, winning by an average of 23.5 per game. But now here come the Week #1 results in which these two teams fell a combined 35.5 off of the oddsmakers projections, and that leads to the usual leaping to the wrong conclusions.

The Bronco problem in this matchup LY, and in general, was a soft defensive front that could be controlled at the point of attack. So what did we see in Monday’s 41-14 rout of Oakland? A soft defensive front that could be controlled at the point of attack. Raider RB’s Justin Fargas and Darren McFadden rambled for 143 yards at 5.3 per carry, but they could not run the ball more because their own defense took them out of the game. We rarely find teams in a favorite’s role that have such a negative matchup in that key area of the game.

Meanwhile there was nothing to be particularly alarmed about in that San Diego loss to Carolina. LaDanian Tomlinson ran for 97 yards at 4.6 per carry and Philip Rivers threw three touchdown passes without an interception. The defense was a disappointment, but that helps from a mental standpoint here. It creates a “backs to the wall” setting from a talented unit, and now that they know that Shawne Merriman is gone for the campaign they can bring the proper focus to make the adjustments. The DL of Jamal Williams, Igor Olshansky and Luis Castillo has dominated the Bronco OL in those recent routs, and with the latter still trying to build chemistry with Casey Wiegmann at center (Tom Nalen will miss at least another week) and rookie Ryan Clady at RT, we can confidently back the Chargers to control the trenches on both sides of the ball.

We don’t find this price range often when one side controls the line of scrimmage the way that we can project this flow to be.
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[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Alabama Capper

NFL 3-11


Sunday San Fran +7
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[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Norm Hitzges

Double Plays

Tampa -7 vs Atlanta
NY Giants -8.5 vs St. Louis
Houston -4.5 vs Baltimore
Jacksonville/Buffalo Under 37

Single Plays

Kansas City -3.5 vs Oakland
San Francisco +7 vs Seattle
Tennessee +1 vs Cincinnati
Pittsburgh -6 vs Cleveland
Indianapolis/Minnesota Under 43.5
Kansas City/Oakland Under 36
Denver/San Diego Over 45.5
Tennessee/Cincinnati Under 37.5
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[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Greg Roberts


Titans +1Over Bengals

Saints Pick 'Em Over Redskins

Dolphins +6.5 Over Cardinals

Jets -1.5 Over Patriots
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[Can'tPickaWinner2]

MIGHTY QUINN

Mighty hit with Connecticut (-10-1/2) last night. Today it's the Saints. The surplus is 135 sirignanos.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Armvin Sports Nfl
9/14/2008 Indianapolis -2

Armvin Sports Mlb
9/14/2008 Colorado Rockies -112

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Marc Lawrence Playbook

NFL


5* BEST BET
Now that we’ve paid the bills with Buffalo, it’s time to charge things up
with the Jags. Jax boss Jack Del Rio warms up when facing non-division
opposition, going 34-19 SU and ATS in his NFL career, including 17-7-1
ATS as a host. Better yet, he’s 10-1 SU and 9-2 ATS at home in Games
One thru Thirteen against a foe off one-win exact. Buffi e enters off last
week’s wire-to-wire home win over Seattle, to which they were quoted
as saying, “Hopefully we made a statement today.” The problem is this
is GAME TWO of the season, a bit early on for a 7-win team last year
to be vouching about its self -proclaimed status. When last we checked
the Bills were averaging 9 PPG in their last nine road games! That won’t
cut it here today. Buffalo falls to 2-11 SU and 3-10 ATS in games against
opponents off a SU favorite loss here today. Purchase approved.
JACKSONVILLE over Buffalo by 20


4* BEST BET
Yet another Game Two matchup involving teams off disparate results
last Sunday. The Joe Flacco era got off to a resounding start when he
combined with Atlanta’s Matt Ryan to become the 2nd NFL quarterback
tandem since 1971 to win debut games on Week One (FYI: Archie
Manning and Jim Plunkett were the others). It should be noted that
NFL teams taking to the non-division road in Game Two off a SU home
dog win are a meager 0-8 SU and 1-7 ATS if they were a losing team
the prior year. The Texans will look to their 7-1 ATS mark at home under
Gary Kubiak against opponents off a win to get back on track quickly.
It’s never hard fading rookie QB’s in their fi rst road outing, especially
those with a 63.7 QB rating. We’re deep in the heart of…
HOUSTON over Baltimore by 13


3* BEST BET
Last week’s two biggest upset makers collide in Carolinas. The Bears
avenged their Super Bowl loss to the Colts with a shocking win at
Indianapolis while the Panthers pounced on the Chargers in a stirring
last-play-of-the-game win at San Diego. What to do for an encore?
If you’re Carolina head coach John Fox the plan would be avoid the
dreaded FAVORITE moniker as his team is 1-11 SU and 0-12 ATS in its
franchise history when laying points against a .500 or better opponent
in Games 1 thru 6. Bears’ boss Lovie Smith counters at 5-1 ATS as an NFL
head coach when facing a foe off a SU underdog win, including 5-0 SU
and ATS away Now, where else can you fi nd info like that other than
the PLAYBOOK? No deliberating here, It’s Da Bears.
Chicago over CAROLINA by 7

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Pointwise Newsletter


NFL Key Plays

2--JACKSONVILLE over Buffalo 30-16
3--TAMPA BAY over Atlanta 26-13
4--San Diego over DENVER 27-17
4--Miami (+) over ARIZONA 19-20
5--SEATTLE over San Francisco 31-13

Last week "1" rated plays were 1-1, now 2-2 on the year
All rated plays last week--College 5-3 (now 8-8 on year)
NFL--3-2


JACKSONVILLE 30 - Buffalo 16 - (1:00) -- Division sandwich for the Jags, who
can't afford any letdown, following LW's embarrassment at Tennessee, when
they allowed 7 sacks, with Garrard throwing a pair of INTs, after just 3 picks all of LY. Throw in a 137-33 RY deficit (Taylor: 18 yds). A far cry from LY, when they wound up with a 29.6 ppg average in their final 12 games. Bills came in as our top NFL Red Sheet play, with 34-10 rout of the Seahawks, & are on a 16-8 spread run, but remember, they averaged just 9.5 ppg on the road LY. Jags are 15-7 ATS at home, 28-11 ATS vs non-division, & 9-2 ATS in ROs lately.

TAMPA BAY 26 - Atlanta 13 - (4:05) -- Improvement of the Falcons is apparent, with Ryan doing very nicely in his debut (9-of-13), including a 62-yd TD pass on his 3rd play. And check Turner with a team record 220 RYs, in romp of the Lions. Far cry from LY's team which allowed 33.1 ppg in its final 7 contests. The Bucs came up lacking on the scoreboard at NewOrleans, but did run for 146 yds, with Graham chugging for 91 yds on just 10 carries, & check Garcia with a decent 24-of-41. Bucs won 37-3 here LY, & are 9-2 ATS off a division
loss. Falcons 4-10 ATS off scoring 28+ pts, & 1-6 in Sept off a SU/ATS win.


San Diego 27 - DENVER 17 - (4:15) -- A year ago, the Chargers travelled to
Denver, & strolled away with a 41-3 win. As a matter of fact, SanDiego has
scored 35, 48, 41, & 23 pts in its last 4 games with the Broncs: covers of 10½, 20½, 40, & 11 pts. Now that's impressive. And since Diego is in a bounceback setup, & on a 9-1 spread run, while catching Denver off its Monday Nighter vs the Raiders, this definitely looks like an extension of that domination. Denver is only 6-18 ATS of late, while SD is 12-3 off a SU loss. Remember, even in LW's loss, Rivers was 3/0, while Tomlinson ran for 97 yds, so still among the elites.


SEATTLE 31 - San Francisco 13 - (4:05) -- Only one way to go when the 'Hawks take the field, & that's with the host squad, which has covered 29-12 of late. Just 85 RYs at Buffalo, with Hasselbeck a terrible 17-of-41. Not to say that 2 key TOs, & a punt return TD didn't help matters. The Niners just continue to flounder, averaging 11 ppg in 12 of their last 14 contests. Gore a decent 96 RYs vs the Cards (6.9 ypr), but just 13 FDs & a 5-0 TO deficit. Would you believe that both teams are 10-1 ATS in Sept off a DD SU loss? But Seattle is 12-2 ATS off a non-division loss, regardless the time or place. Bouncebacker.

ARIZONA 20- Miami 19 - (4:15) -- Have to love the way that Warner keeps on doing it. A solid 19-of-30, with a TD & no INTs in 'Zona's win over the Niners. Check a 37:05-22:55 time edge in that one, as well as 100 RYs for Edgerrin, & 5 takeaways. Cards now at 32.2 ppg in their last 9 games. Dolphins kicked it up a notch, behind Pennington's 26-of-43 showing (251 yds, 2 TDs), but it was just their latest loss (1-19 SU). 'Zona 17-8 ATS lately, but 4-12 ATS at home off a SU/ATS win, while Dolphs 15-3 as non-division RDs of 5+ pts. Miami call.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NorthCoast Power Sweep


NFL:

4* Carolina 31-17
3*Houston 28-13
2*Tampa 27-6
2*New Orleans 24-17

3* Titians U39
3*Bills U37
3* Giants 042
2* Falcons U38
2* Patriots U38



4★ Excellent
3★ Very Good
2★ Good

4* CAROLINA over Chicago - This is the 1st meeting since the 2005 Div playoff game which CAR won 29-21 as a 3 pt AD. The Bears are off LW’s SNF game vs IND & its not known how Orton or the CHI defense fared. CAR is 6-12-1 as a non-div HF & 1-4 SU & 0-5 ATS in it’s 1st HG. The CAR defense looks to be in mid-season form as they held SD to 17 FD & 316 yds. The DL put above avg pressure on Rivers (did only get 1 sack) but look for a mismatch against the Bears aging OL. The Bears also lack speed at the wideouts, will have rookie Forte picking up blitzes & are still adjusting with Orton at the helm. The Panthers & QB Delhomme showed their character driving 68 yds for the GW TD after allowing two 4Q TD’s. The addition of RB Stewart (53, 5.3) gives them a pair of RB’s to keep opposing defenses guessing. CAR’s 388 yds shows the strides OC Davidson has made in his 2nd season even without WR Smith who will miss this one as well. CAR is still 9-20-1 ATS as a HF but teams that start with B2B road games against a team off a SU win are 4-9 ATS. We won a 4H Key Selection with CAR LW & they picked up a huge confidence building win vs an elite AFC team & we’ll side with them again. FORECAST: CAROLINA 31 Chicago 17



3* HOUSTON over Baltimore - This is the 3rd meeting & the visitor is 2-0 ATS in the series. This is the Ravens 1st dome game in 28 games & BAL is 1-6 ATS in its 1st road game. HOU is 8-1 ATS at home with a 26.7-18.5 avg margin. BAL started QB Flacco LW & he had a decent debut with 129 yds passing (52%) with a 38 yd TD run. The story of the game was how the BAL defense dominated the CIN OL. The Ravens had 21-8 FD & 358-154 yd edges as CIN simply couldn’t execute its offense. Flacco now makes his 1st road start in a dome vs a borderline playoff contender. HOU was thrashed by PIT LW & was down 35-3 with 2:10 left in the 3Q as PIT had a 303-79 yd edge. HOU racked up 14 pts, 14 FD’s & 155 yds in garbage time. Kubiak is 6-1-1 ATS at home vs a foe off a SU win & LW’s results give some line value here. The lack of a run game is a concern (75 yds, 3.8) but HOU is a healthier team with a better QB, #1 WR, with a formidable pass rush at home & are the play. FORECAST: HOUSTON 28 Baltimore 13
OTHER SELECTIONS


2* TAMPA BAY over Atlanta - TB dominated ATL LY sweeping the series by a combined 68-10 with an avg of 295-199 yd edge. TB is 10-4-1 ATS in the series. LW the Falcons stunned the Lions by going up 21-0 at the end of the 1Q with 9-3 FD & 216-64 yd edges. RB Turner gashed the Lions for 220 yds (10.0) rushing & takes on another small, speed oriented defense. ATL had 12 plays of 13 or more yds. They only allowed 1 sack & 2 QBH with a run game that took the pressure off Ryan who only had 13 pass att’s (161 yds, 69% 1-0). TB was in a tough spot LW vs a NO team motivated by Hurricane Gustav but was only outgained by 86 yds & was forced to settle for 2 FG’s on drives into the NO 19 & 15. TB went 5-2-1 ATS at home LY winning by an avg of 23-14. Ryan now has to play in his 1st road game vs a solid TB D in the heat & look for better red-zone performance out of the TB offense as LW’s results give some line value here. FORECAST: TAMPA BAY 27 Atlanta 6


2* New Orleans over WASHINGTON - WAS beat NO 16-10 as a 9.5 pt AD in the last meeting in 2006 with a Joe Gibbs-led team. WAS’s roster is loaded with a Gibbs built NFC East smashmouth offense that is trying to move to a NFC West finesse West Coast offense. QB Campbell looked lost in LW’s game & he was worse than his 133 yds passing (56%) 1-0 ratio shows. He only spread the ball to 5 receivers. TE Cooley, WAS best passing weapon, had 2 passes thrown to him & Campbell didn’t complete a pass until 1:19 was left in the 1H. WAS was outFD 14-4 & outgained 241-51 in the 1H. NO is confident in its power rushing/vertical offense with Brees who has passed for 295 ypg (69%) with a 30-10 ratio in his L13 games. NO’s defense tallied 2 sacks, 6 QBH & 2 tfl while holding TB to just 2 of 12 on 3rd Dns (17%) as the improved DL did its job. While the NO OL is a concern with the amount of pressure Brees was under vs TB they got a big confidence restoring win & look for WAS to struggle again with basic game management. FORECAST: New Orleans 24 WASHINGTON 17

 

[jordan17]

its 3:30 over there! Cpaw u ever sleep? :think2: