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Sixth Sense Sports
KANSAS CITY –3.5 Oakland 36
KC came close to upsetting NE last week. They averaged just 4.6yppl while NE averaged 5.7yppl. Matt Cassel replaced Tom Brady and looked fine. Not sure yet if that is a product of the very solid talent NE has or KC isn’t very good, especially after losing Jared Allen to the Vikings. Both quarterbacks that replaced their starters (Cassel and Huard) threw for very good numbers but most of that yardage was done with one long pass play each. Oakland, meanwhile, looked terrible at home against Denver, allowing 7.5yppl, including 12.0yps. Oakland moved the ball some on their own, averaging 5.4yppl, including 4.8ypr, but the defense gave up way too much yardage. Oakland has played tough here in KC over the years. They won here last year and although they lost the four previous years, no loss was by more than four points. Granted a four point loss here doesn’t bring home the money but the games have been close. They lost six years ago by 10 points and won the three previous years to that. KC qualifies in a negative situation based on their loss last week, which is 112-58-10. Oakland also qualifies in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 634-515-42, including a subset, which is 508-392-30. The Oakland defense is better than they showed last week and it may turn out they played a very good offense, something, which KC is definitely not. We should see a much better effort against a poor offense this week. Javon Walker should also be back to help the Oakland offense. Expect plenty of running from the Raiders offense. This game also qualifies in an early season under situation, which is 75-34-4. OAKLAND 17 KANSAS CITY 14
Cincinnati PK Tennessee 37.5
Cincinnati was absolutely brutal last week. They were even more brutal than I thought they would be. Cincinnati averaged just 3.1yppl and allowed a pretty anemic Baltimore offense with a rookie quarterback 4.8yppl. The defense is still terrible and the offense is getting worse each year. Cincinnati passed for 89 yards for the whole game. It won’t get much easier this week against a solid Tennessee defense, which held Jacksonville to 3.2yppl, including just 1.9ypr and 3.7yps. Tennessee was pretty good on offense, gaining 5.4yppl, including 6.9yps. Vince Young was hurt last week and will miss this game. That’s a good thing. Kerry Collins is much better at throwing the ball and therefore, on the road, at helping the Titans score and win a game. I had Tennessee here last year and they were blown out but that was with Vince Young and I expect much different results this year. Much better defense in Tennessee, much better running game with Tennessee and a much better coach. Cincinnati qualifies in a negative early season situation, which is 112-58-10 and plays against them here. Tennessee also qualifies in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 634-515-42, including a subset, which is 508-392-30. Numbers favor Cincinnati by one point before accounting for the situations. Too much defense and better running game along with value and the situations. TENNESSEE 24 CINCINNATI 17
Indianapolis –2 MINNESOTA 43.5
Both teams were extremely disappointed in their week one results. Indy looked out of synch and allowed the Bears a lot of rushing yards. In all Indy allowed an anemic Chicago offense to average 5.1yppl, 4.7ypr (183 yards) and 5.9yps. The Indy offense couldn’t move the ball, as they averaged just 4.4yppl and 4.7yps. Minnesota did what they do best, rushing for 187 yards at 5.7ypr. Unfortunately, they allowed big plays in the passing game, allowing 8.1yps and big plays in the rushing game (something they normally don’t allow) at 5.1ypr. Overall they allowed 6.5yppl and averaged only 5.1yppl thanks to their anemic passing game again. The Vikings are in trouble when they get behind because they can’t score quickly when they need to. Minnesota qualifies in an early season negative situation, which is 112-58-10 and plays against them here. Minnesota does qualify in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 634-515-42. Tough game to call. Hard to believe Indy won’t bounce back after their bad performance last week but maybe Peyton being out during the preseason and no Jeff Saturday (potentially no Dallas Clark) makes it harder for the offense to get going. It won’t be easy against a big, tough physical defense like the Vikings playing at home where they definitely have an advantage. If Indy can’t stop the rush again this week, they won’t win this game. But, it’s hard to take Tavaris Jackson over Peyton Manning. This game does qualify in an early season under situation, which is 75-34-4. INDIANAPOLIS 24 MINNESOTA 17
WASHINGTON PK New Orleans 42
Washington looked about as bad in their first game as they were in the preseason. They gained just 4.0yppl, 3.5ypr and 4.5yps. Meanwhile, the defense played average allowing the Giants to gain 5.1yppl, 5.8ypr and 5.4yps. The Saints were impressive against a good TB defense, gaining 7.3yppl, including 10.2yps with big passing plays. The Saints defense wasn’t great but did enough to win the game allowing 5.6yppl, 7.3ypr (that could be a problem against a good Washington rushing attack) and only 4.8yps. Washington qualifies in an early season negative situation, which is 112-58-10 and plays against them here. The Saints are missing some key starters this week and I’m not sure I like the rush defense match up against the Redskins rushing attack. At least I don’t like it enough that it will keep me off a best bet play on NO despite the solid situation in their favor. NEW ORLEANS 24 WASHINGTON 23
Green Bay –3 DETROIT 45.5
Tom Jackson of ESPN declared the Lions as his pick to win the NFC North this year. Say what? I don’t care if you think they have some good personnel, how can you possibly pick the Lions knowing full well what this organization is all about. Hard to say I was surprised last week knowing I don’t think much of the Lions but never did I expect them to play as badly as they did. They were steam rolled by Atlanta for 8.5ypr and 318 yards rushing. Wow! Atlanta averaged 11.1yps. Atlanta had two long pass plays that accounted for most of that yardage and they only attempted 14 passes. The Lions averaged 6.8yps so the passing game wasn’t terrible. They just couldn’t stop what is probably an average Atlanta offense at best. GB looked very good (especially with the debut of Aaron Rodgers) gaining 6.5yppl, 5.1ypr and 8.1yps against a big, tough physical Viking defense. They held the Vikings to just 4.7yps but did allow Minnesota to gain 187 yards rushing at 5.7ypr. Minnesota averaged 5.3ypr last year and if you take out the rushing yards gained by quarterback Tavaris Jackson, they averaged 5.1ypr, which is about par for the Vikings offense. Detroit qualifies in an early season negative situation, which is 112-58-10 and plays against them here. Packers have won the two games played here with McCarthy as head coach, 31-24 and 37-26. Seven of the past ten meetings here have totaled at least 47 points. Packers simply have too much talent on both sides of the ball to not like them here with the situation backing them. Numbers favor GB by 10 points and predict about 53 points. GREEN BAY 33 DETROIT 20
CAROLINA –3 Chicago 37
Very impressed with the Bears last week. I’m not sold on them yet but did take notice to their 183 yards rushing at 4.7ypr and limiting the Indy offense to just 4.4yppl, including just 4.7yps. I like Carolina a lot this year and look for them to win their division. They averaged 5.5yppl, including 4.9ypr and 5.9yps against the Chargers last week. They did allow SD to average 5.7yppl, including 7.5yps, which could be a concern. I don’t have any situations on either team in this game but will lean slightly towards Carolina in a game that should tell us a lot about the Bears. CAROLINA 21 CHICAGO 17
New York Giants –8.5 ST LOUIS 41.5
Rams were about as bad as I thought and I don’t see it getting much better for them this week. They allowed Philly to gain 7.4yppl and 10.6yps. They gained just 3.7yppl, including 2.4ypr and 4.3yps. The Giants were solid against the Redskins, gaining 5.1yppl to just 4.0yppl for Washington and they averaged 4.8ypr against a good Redskins rush defense. I don’t have any situations on this game but this is a solid mismatch with a good rushing team against a poor rush defense. Of course, the spread is the great equalizer. Rams were just 1-4 ATS as a home dog last year and those games totaled at least 43 points in every game. Giants too physical for the Rams. NY GIANTS 27 ST LOUIS 17
JACKSONVILLE –5 Buffalo 37.5
I thought Jacksonville would win their division this year but that doesn’t look good now. David Garrard, who barely had any interceptions last year, threw two last week. The offense was terrible. They averaged just 3.2yppl, including just 1.9ypr and 3.7yps. They allowed Tennessee to average 5.4yppl, including 4.3ypr and 6.9yps. It doesn’t get any easier for a Jacksonville offensive line that lost both of their starting guards in last week’s game. Now, they face a Buffalo offense, which did a good job last week. They gained 5.5yppl (5.3yppl if you don’t count the fake field goal pass), including a healthy 7.3yps. They allowed Seattle just 3.8yppl and 3.6yps, sacking the Seahawks five times. They will face a similar offense this week that is weak on receivers and will allow sacks. Jacksonville was sacked last week seven times by Tennessee. Jacksonville qualifies in an early season negative situation, which is 112-58-10 and plays against them here. Just don’t see an anemic Jacksonville offense pulling away from a good Buffalo defense and completely stopping an improved Buffalo offense. BUFFALO 17 JACKSONVILLE 13
TAMPA BAY –7 Atlanta 37.5
Atlanta destroyed Detroit last week, gaining 474 yards at 8.5yppl, including 7.6ypr (318 yards rushing) and 11.1yps. They held Detroit to 5.4yppl but 6.8yps so Detroit did move the ball a little on the Falcons offense. TB gave up some big passing plays to the Saints by allowing 10.2yps and 7.3yppl. They did average 7.3ypr themselves but just 4.8yps. Jeff Garcia will probably miss this game for TB. Hard to believe Matt Ryan will perform well in his first road game against a good TB defense that will certainly be focused after their loss last week and be out to stop the run first. I don’t have any situations on this game but will lean towards TB. TAMPA BAY 24 ATLANTA 13
SEATTLE –7 San Francisco 37.5
Seattle played about how I thought they would last week with only one healthy receiver. They gained just 3.8yppl, including just 3.6yps and were sacked five times. They lost Nate Burelson and now have no healthy wide receivers. Seattle allowed Buffalo 5.5yppl and 7.3yps. SF lost 13-23 to Arizona but that game was probably the misleading score of the week. SF averaged 6.6yppl, including 5.4ypr and 7.6yps. They moved the ball just fine. Unfortunately, they turned the ball over five times to no turnovers for Arizona. Arizona averaged just 4.0yppl, including just 2.8ypr. SF qualifies in a general situation, which is 50-21-1 and Seattle qualifies in a negative situation based on their performance last week, which is 75-28-2 and plays against them here. This is a completely different 49ers team this year that should be able to move the ball. They have a better quarterback and a better system to run their offense. The defense is just fine. Now, they get a bunch of points and a very banged up Seattle offense. SAN FRANCISCO 23 SEATTLE 16
ARIZONA –6.5 Miami 39.5
Arizona won last week 23-13 but they were badly out played from the line of scrimmage. They gained just 4.0yppl and allowed SF to average 6.6yppl. Arizona averaged just 2.8ypr and 5.3yps while allowing SF 5.4ypr and 7.6yps. Miami was beaten pretty badly at the line of scrimmage last week, gaining just 4.3yppl and allowing 5.2yppl to the Jets. Miami allowed 7.2yps and gained just 2.9ypr and 4.9yps. I don’t have any situations on either team in this game. Pretty hard for me to lay points with Arizona until they prove they are better than they showed last week. Also hard to take Miami with any points. I’ll call it a seven point game and let the spread determine my lean. ARIZONA 24 MIAMI 17
NY JETS –1 New England 37
NE suffered a huge blow last week by losing Tom Brady for the season. They averaged 5.7yppl and 6.8yps. Take away a 51 yard pass to Randy Moss and those numbers get pretty average quickly. Average is probably the way this offense will perform the rest of the season. The defense allowed KC just 4.6yppl, 3.8ypr and 5.2yps. The Jets looked decent against a bad Miami team, gaining 5.2yppl and allowing 4.3yppl. The Jets averaged 7.2yps but those numbers also get pretty average if you take away the long pass to Jericho Cotchery. They allowed Miami just 2.9ypr last week. I don’t have any situations on this game but it should be a very interesting game. With Brady out, this game becomes a little more equal for both teams. I will lean with the Jets because they are at home and I expect Favre to be able to do more than Cassel who is substituting for Brady. Jets haven’t beaten NE here since 2000 but much different team now with Favre and no Brady. NY JETS 16 NEW ENGLAND 13
San Diego –1 DENVER 45.5
Denver was very impressive last week in their thrashing of Oakland 41-14. They gained 7.5yppl, including 12.0yps. They allowed Oakland 5.4yppl, including 4.8ypr and 6.0yps but most of that was after the game was out of control. SD allowed Carolina to gain 5.5yppl, including 4.9ypr and 5.9yps. Carolina is a very good team this year and SD did average 5.7yppl, including 7.5yps. The Chargers are hurting on defense this week with a few key players out and Denver gets back Brandon Marshall. I don’t have any situations on the side in this game. SD had lost six straight here in Denver before winning the last two years. I like Denver this year and getting points at home, coming off a solid performance is intriguing. DENVER 24 SAN DIEGO 20
Pittsburgh –6 CLEVELAND 44.5
It doesn’t get much easier for Cleveland this week as they take on another physical team that can run and throw the ball well. Cleveland is banged up on offense and the defense doesn’t look good. Cleveland allowed Dallas 7.7yppl, including 5.4ypr and 10.0yps. Those were worse but Dallas got out to such a huge lead they cruised in the end. The Browns averaged just 4.8yppl, including just 4.6yps. They did average 5.1ypr. Pittsburgh dominated Houston last week, gaining 5.2yppl to just 4.0yppl for Houston. They averaged 4.7ypr and 6.1yps and held Houston to just 4.2yps, sacking Houston five times. The Browns qualify in a bounce back situation, which is 51-20-0 but Pittsburgh qualifies in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 634-515-42, including a subset, which is 508-392-30. Pittsburgh has won eight of nine games here, including six of the nine by at least seven points. Physical mismatch for Pittsburgh that I wish I would have believed in last week against Dallas. PITTSBURGH 27 CLEVELAND 20
DALLAS –6.5 Philadelphia 46.5
Both teams looked great last week. Dallas averaged 7.7yppl, including 5.4ypr and 10.0yps. They allowed Cleveland just 4.8yppl, including just 4.6yps. Philly racked up 7.4yppl, including 10.6yps and allowed the Rams just 3.7yppl, 2.4ypr and 4.3yps. Philly has dominated Dallas in Dallas winning the last two years here and six of the past eight years. One of those two losses was by just two points so getting 6.5 points in this game looks like a lot with a good Philly defense. I don’t have any situations on this game and my numbers favor Dallas by about six points and predict about 45 points. DALLAS 26 PHILADELPHIA 20
HOUSTON –4.5 Baltimore 37.5 (Moved to Monday night)
This game is being moved to Monday night because of Hurricane Ike. Baltimore completely shut down Cincinnati in week one, gaining 4.8yppl, including 5.0ypr (229 yards rushing) but just 4.4yps. They allowed Cincinnati just 3.1yppl, 2.8ypr and 3.3yps. Houston had problems in Pittsburgh. They were out gained 5.2yppl to 4.0yppl, out rushed 4.7ypr to 3.8ypr and out passed 6.1yps to 4.2yps. It appears they will face a very tough defense again this week with the Ravens. Not sure how well Baltimore can move the ball, given they didn’t do a lot through the air against Cincinnati but they should be able to rush the ball well if last week is any indication. Houston qualifies in an early season negative situation, which is 112-58-10 and plays against them here. Houston also qualifies in a negative rushing situation, which is 107-45-8 and also plays against them. Baltimore qualifies in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 634-515-42, including a subset, which is 508-392-30. I’m a little nervous taking a rookie quarterback on the road with an offense that has trouble scoring, especially against a team that plays much better at home. Situations are strong and in Baltimore’s favor. I will take a shot. BALTIMORE 20 HOUSTON 17
BEST BETS
YTD 3-1 +5.70%
OAKLAND +3.5
TENNESSEE PK
GREEN BAY –3
BUFFALO +5
SAN FRANCISCO +7
BALTIMORE +4.5
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KANSAS CITY –3.5 Oakland 36
KC came close to upsetting NE last week. They averaged just 4.6yppl while NE averaged 5.7yppl. Matt Cassel replaced Tom Brady and looked fine. Not sure yet if that is a product of the very solid talent NE has or KC isn’t very good, especially after losing Jared Allen to the Vikings. Both quarterbacks that replaced their starters (Cassel and Huard) threw for very good numbers but most of that yardage was done with one long pass play each. Oakland, meanwhile, looked terrible at home against Denver, allowing 7.5yppl, including 12.0yps. Oakland moved the ball some on their own, averaging 5.4yppl, including 4.8ypr, but the defense gave up way too much yardage. Oakland has played tough here in KC over the years. They won here last year and although they lost the four previous years, no loss was by more than four points. Granted a four point loss here doesn’t bring home the money but the games have been close. They lost six years ago by 10 points and won the three previous years to that. KC qualifies in a negative situation based on their loss last week, which is 112-58-10. Oakland also qualifies in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 634-515-42, including a subset, which is 508-392-30. The Oakland defense is better than they showed last week and it may turn out they played a very good offense, something, which KC is definitely not. We should see a much better effort against a poor offense this week. Javon Walker should also be back to help the Oakland offense. Expect plenty of running from the Raiders offense. This game also qualifies in an early season under situation, which is 75-34-4. OAKLAND 17 KANSAS CITY 14
Cincinnati PK Tennessee 37.5
Cincinnati was absolutely brutal last week. They were even more brutal than I thought they would be. Cincinnati averaged just 3.1yppl and allowed a pretty anemic Baltimore offense with a rookie quarterback 4.8yppl. The defense is still terrible and the offense is getting worse each year. Cincinnati passed for 89 yards for the whole game. It won’t get much easier this week against a solid Tennessee defense, which held Jacksonville to 3.2yppl, including just 1.9ypr and 3.7yps. Tennessee was pretty good on offense, gaining 5.4yppl, including 6.9yps. Vince Young was hurt last week and will miss this game. That’s a good thing. Kerry Collins is much better at throwing the ball and therefore, on the road, at helping the Titans score and win a game. I had Tennessee here last year and they were blown out but that was with Vince Young and I expect much different results this year. Much better defense in Tennessee, much better running game with Tennessee and a much better coach. Cincinnati qualifies in a negative early season situation, which is 112-58-10 and plays against them here. Tennessee also qualifies in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 634-515-42, including a subset, which is 508-392-30. Numbers favor Cincinnati by one point before accounting for the situations. Too much defense and better running game along with value and the situations. TENNESSEE 24 CINCINNATI 17
Indianapolis –2 MINNESOTA 43.5
Both teams were extremely disappointed in their week one results. Indy looked out of synch and allowed the Bears a lot of rushing yards. In all Indy allowed an anemic Chicago offense to average 5.1yppl, 4.7ypr (183 yards) and 5.9yps. The Indy offense couldn’t move the ball, as they averaged just 4.4yppl and 4.7yps. Minnesota did what they do best, rushing for 187 yards at 5.7ypr. Unfortunately, they allowed big plays in the passing game, allowing 8.1yps and big plays in the rushing game (something they normally don’t allow) at 5.1ypr. Overall they allowed 6.5yppl and averaged only 5.1yppl thanks to their anemic passing game again. The Vikings are in trouble when they get behind because they can’t score quickly when they need to. Minnesota qualifies in an early season negative situation, which is 112-58-10 and plays against them here. Minnesota does qualify in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 634-515-42. Tough game to call. Hard to believe Indy won’t bounce back after their bad performance last week but maybe Peyton being out during the preseason and no Jeff Saturday (potentially no Dallas Clark) makes it harder for the offense to get going. It won’t be easy against a big, tough physical defense like the Vikings playing at home where they definitely have an advantage. If Indy can’t stop the rush again this week, they won’t win this game. But, it’s hard to take Tavaris Jackson over Peyton Manning. This game does qualify in an early season under situation, which is 75-34-4. INDIANAPOLIS 24 MINNESOTA 17
WASHINGTON PK New Orleans 42
Washington looked about as bad in their first game as they were in the preseason. They gained just 4.0yppl, 3.5ypr and 4.5yps. Meanwhile, the defense played average allowing the Giants to gain 5.1yppl, 5.8ypr and 5.4yps. The Saints were impressive against a good TB defense, gaining 7.3yppl, including 10.2yps with big passing plays. The Saints defense wasn’t great but did enough to win the game allowing 5.6yppl, 7.3ypr (that could be a problem against a good Washington rushing attack) and only 4.8yps. Washington qualifies in an early season negative situation, which is 112-58-10 and plays against them here. The Saints are missing some key starters this week and I’m not sure I like the rush defense match up against the Redskins rushing attack. At least I don’t like it enough that it will keep me off a best bet play on NO despite the solid situation in their favor. NEW ORLEANS 24 WASHINGTON 23
Green Bay –3 DETROIT 45.5
Tom Jackson of ESPN declared the Lions as his pick to win the NFC North this year. Say what? I don’t care if you think they have some good personnel, how can you possibly pick the Lions knowing full well what this organization is all about. Hard to say I was surprised last week knowing I don’t think much of the Lions but never did I expect them to play as badly as they did. They were steam rolled by Atlanta for 8.5ypr and 318 yards rushing. Wow! Atlanta averaged 11.1yps. Atlanta had two long pass plays that accounted for most of that yardage and they only attempted 14 passes. The Lions averaged 6.8yps so the passing game wasn’t terrible. They just couldn’t stop what is probably an average Atlanta offense at best. GB looked very good (especially with the debut of Aaron Rodgers) gaining 6.5yppl, 5.1ypr and 8.1yps against a big, tough physical Viking defense. They held the Vikings to just 4.7yps but did allow Minnesota to gain 187 yards rushing at 5.7ypr. Minnesota averaged 5.3ypr last year and if you take out the rushing yards gained by quarterback Tavaris Jackson, they averaged 5.1ypr, which is about par for the Vikings offense. Detroit qualifies in an early season negative situation, which is 112-58-10 and plays against them here. Packers have won the two games played here with McCarthy as head coach, 31-24 and 37-26. Seven of the past ten meetings here have totaled at least 47 points. Packers simply have too much talent on both sides of the ball to not like them here with the situation backing them. Numbers favor GB by 10 points and predict about 53 points. GREEN BAY 33 DETROIT 20
CAROLINA –3 Chicago 37
Very impressed with the Bears last week. I’m not sold on them yet but did take notice to their 183 yards rushing at 4.7ypr and limiting the Indy offense to just 4.4yppl, including just 4.7yps. I like Carolina a lot this year and look for them to win their division. They averaged 5.5yppl, including 4.9ypr and 5.9yps against the Chargers last week. They did allow SD to average 5.7yppl, including 7.5yps, which could be a concern. I don’t have any situations on either team in this game but will lean slightly towards Carolina in a game that should tell us a lot about the Bears. CAROLINA 21 CHICAGO 17
New York Giants –8.5 ST LOUIS 41.5
Rams were about as bad as I thought and I don’t see it getting much better for them this week. They allowed Philly to gain 7.4yppl and 10.6yps. They gained just 3.7yppl, including 2.4ypr and 4.3yps. The Giants were solid against the Redskins, gaining 5.1yppl to just 4.0yppl for Washington and they averaged 4.8ypr against a good Redskins rush defense. I don’t have any situations on this game but this is a solid mismatch with a good rushing team against a poor rush defense. Of course, the spread is the great equalizer. Rams were just 1-4 ATS as a home dog last year and those games totaled at least 43 points in every game. Giants too physical for the Rams. NY GIANTS 27 ST LOUIS 17
JACKSONVILLE –5 Buffalo 37.5
I thought Jacksonville would win their division this year but that doesn’t look good now. David Garrard, who barely had any interceptions last year, threw two last week. The offense was terrible. They averaged just 3.2yppl, including just 1.9ypr and 3.7yps. They allowed Tennessee to average 5.4yppl, including 4.3ypr and 6.9yps. It doesn’t get any easier for a Jacksonville offensive line that lost both of their starting guards in last week’s game. Now, they face a Buffalo offense, which did a good job last week. They gained 5.5yppl (5.3yppl if you don’t count the fake field goal pass), including a healthy 7.3yps. They allowed Seattle just 3.8yppl and 3.6yps, sacking the Seahawks five times. They will face a similar offense this week that is weak on receivers and will allow sacks. Jacksonville was sacked last week seven times by Tennessee. Jacksonville qualifies in an early season negative situation, which is 112-58-10 and plays against them here. Just don’t see an anemic Jacksonville offense pulling away from a good Buffalo defense and completely stopping an improved Buffalo offense. BUFFALO 17 JACKSONVILLE 13
TAMPA BAY –7 Atlanta 37.5
Atlanta destroyed Detroit last week, gaining 474 yards at 8.5yppl, including 7.6ypr (318 yards rushing) and 11.1yps. They held Detroit to 5.4yppl but 6.8yps so Detroit did move the ball a little on the Falcons offense. TB gave up some big passing plays to the Saints by allowing 10.2yps and 7.3yppl. They did average 7.3ypr themselves but just 4.8yps. Jeff Garcia will probably miss this game for TB. Hard to believe Matt Ryan will perform well in his first road game against a good TB defense that will certainly be focused after their loss last week and be out to stop the run first. I don’t have any situations on this game but will lean towards TB. TAMPA BAY 24 ATLANTA 13
SEATTLE –7 San Francisco 37.5
Seattle played about how I thought they would last week with only one healthy receiver. They gained just 3.8yppl, including just 3.6yps and were sacked five times. They lost Nate Burelson and now have no healthy wide receivers. Seattle allowed Buffalo 5.5yppl and 7.3yps. SF lost 13-23 to Arizona but that game was probably the misleading score of the week. SF averaged 6.6yppl, including 5.4ypr and 7.6yps. They moved the ball just fine. Unfortunately, they turned the ball over five times to no turnovers for Arizona. Arizona averaged just 4.0yppl, including just 2.8ypr. SF qualifies in a general situation, which is 50-21-1 and Seattle qualifies in a negative situation based on their performance last week, which is 75-28-2 and plays against them here. This is a completely different 49ers team this year that should be able to move the ball. They have a better quarterback and a better system to run their offense. The defense is just fine. Now, they get a bunch of points and a very banged up Seattle offense. SAN FRANCISCO 23 SEATTLE 16
ARIZONA –6.5 Miami 39.5
Arizona won last week 23-13 but they were badly out played from the line of scrimmage. They gained just 4.0yppl and allowed SF to average 6.6yppl. Arizona averaged just 2.8ypr and 5.3yps while allowing SF 5.4ypr and 7.6yps. Miami was beaten pretty badly at the line of scrimmage last week, gaining just 4.3yppl and allowing 5.2yppl to the Jets. Miami allowed 7.2yps and gained just 2.9ypr and 4.9yps. I don’t have any situations on either team in this game. Pretty hard for me to lay points with Arizona until they prove they are better than they showed last week. Also hard to take Miami with any points. I’ll call it a seven point game and let the spread determine my lean. ARIZONA 24 MIAMI 17
NY JETS –1 New England 37
NE suffered a huge blow last week by losing Tom Brady for the season. They averaged 5.7yppl and 6.8yps. Take away a 51 yard pass to Randy Moss and those numbers get pretty average quickly. Average is probably the way this offense will perform the rest of the season. The defense allowed KC just 4.6yppl, 3.8ypr and 5.2yps. The Jets looked decent against a bad Miami team, gaining 5.2yppl and allowing 4.3yppl. The Jets averaged 7.2yps but those numbers also get pretty average if you take away the long pass to Jericho Cotchery. They allowed Miami just 2.9ypr last week. I don’t have any situations on this game but it should be a very interesting game. With Brady out, this game becomes a little more equal for both teams. I will lean with the Jets because they are at home and I expect Favre to be able to do more than Cassel who is substituting for Brady. Jets haven’t beaten NE here since 2000 but much different team now with Favre and no Brady. NY JETS 16 NEW ENGLAND 13
San Diego –1 DENVER 45.5
Denver was very impressive last week in their thrashing of Oakland 41-14. They gained 7.5yppl, including 12.0yps. They allowed Oakland 5.4yppl, including 4.8ypr and 6.0yps but most of that was after the game was out of control. SD allowed Carolina to gain 5.5yppl, including 4.9ypr and 5.9yps. Carolina is a very good team this year and SD did average 5.7yppl, including 7.5yps. The Chargers are hurting on defense this week with a few key players out and Denver gets back Brandon Marshall. I don’t have any situations on the side in this game. SD had lost six straight here in Denver before winning the last two years. I like Denver this year and getting points at home, coming off a solid performance is intriguing. DENVER 24 SAN DIEGO 20
Pittsburgh –6 CLEVELAND 44.5
It doesn’t get much easier for Cleveland this week as they take on another physical team that can run and throw the ball well. Cleveland is banged up on offense and the defense doesn’t look good. Cleveland allowed Dallas 7.7yppl, including 5.4ypr and 10.0yps. Those were worse but Dallas got out to such a huge lead they cruised in the end. The Browns averaged just 4.8yppl, including just 4.6yps. They did average 5.1ypr. Pittsburgh dominated Houston last week, gaining 5.2yppl to just 4.0yppl for Houston. They averaged 4.7ypr and 6.1yps and held Houston to just 4.2yps, sacking Houston five times. The Browns qualify in a bounce back situation, which is 51-20-0 but Pittsburgh qualifies in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 634-515-42, including a subset, which is 508-392-30. Pittsburgh has won eight of nine games here, including six of the nine by at least seven points. Physical mismatch for Pittsburgh that I wish I would have believed in last week against Dallas. PITTSBURGH 27 CLEVELAND 20
DALLAS –6.5 Philadelphia 46.5
Both teams looked great last week. Dallas averaged 7.7yppl, including 5.4ypr and 10.0yps. They allowed Cleveland just 4.8yppl, including just 4.6yps. Philly racked up 7.4yppl, including 10.6yps and allowed the Rams just 3.7yppl, 2.4ypr and 4.3yps. Philly has dominated Dallas in Dallas winning the last two years here and six of the past eight years. One of those two losses was by just two points so getting 6.5 points in this game looks like a lot with a good Philly defense. I don’t have any situations on this game and my numbers favor Dallas by about six points and predict about 45 points. DALLAS 26 PHILADELPHIA 20
HOUSTON –4.5 Baltimore 37.5 (Moved to Monday night)
This game is being moved to Monday night because of Hurricane Ike. Baltimore completely shut down Cincinnati in week one, gaining 4.8yppl, including 5.0ypr (229 yards rushing) but just 4.4yps. They allowed Cincinnati just 3.1yppl, 2.8ypr and 3.3yps. Houston had problems in Pittsburgh. They were out gained 5.2yppl to 4.0yppl, out rushed 4.7ypr to 3.8ypr and out passed 6.1yps to 4.2yps. It appears they will face a very tough defense again this week with the Ravens. Not sure how well Baltimore can move the ball, given they didn’t do a lot through the air against Cincinnati but they should be able to rush the ball well if last week is any indication. Houston qualifies in an early season negative situation, which is 112-58-10 and plays against them here. Houston also qualifies in a negative rushing situation, which is 107-45-8 and also plays against them. Baltimore qualifies in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 634-515-42, including a subset, which is 508-392-30. I’m a little nervous taking a rookie quarterback on the road with an offense that has trouble scoring, especially against a team that plays much better at home. Situations are strong and in Baltimore’s favor. I will take a shot. BALTIMORE 20 HOUSTON 17
BEST BETS
YTD 3-1 +5.70%
OAKLAND +3.5
TENNESSEE PK
GREEN BAY –3
BUFFALO +5
SAN FRANCISCO +7
BALTIMORE +4.5
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<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=3 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#dddddd><TD vAlign=top>Winners Inc.</TD><TD vAlign=top align=right>Guaranteed Selections</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=3 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD vAlign=top>Date: Sunday, September 14, 2008
$25.00 Guaranteed: Are you ready to ROCK YOUR MAN TODAY! This is HUGE as we have isolated one of our strongest NFL selections EVER!!! You can get our 5000* BOOKIE-BUSTING SUNDAY NIGHT NFL CRUSHER today for only $25! We were 24-11 last year in the NFL and WE WILL CRUSH YOU MAN WITH THIS WINNER TODAY!!!</TD><TD vAlign=top noWrap align=right>9/14/2008</TD></TR><TR><TD colSpan=2> </TD></TR><TR><TD colSpan=2>5000* BOOKIE-BUSTING SUNDAY NIGHT NFL CRUSHER
220 Cleveland +6 8:15 EST</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=3 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD vAlign=top>Date: Sunday, September 14, 2008
$25.00 Guaranteed: Are you ready to ROCK YOUR MAN TODAY! This is HUGE as we have isolated one of our strongest NFL selections EVER!!! You can get our 5000* BOOKIE-BUSTING BLOWOUT NFL FOOTBALL CRUSHER today for only $25! We were 24-11 last year in the NFL and WE WILL CRUSH YOU MAN WITH THIS WINNER TODAY!!!</TD><TD vAlign=top noWrap align=right>9/14/2008</TD></TR><TR><TD colSpan=2> </TD></TR><TR><TD colSpan=2>5000* BOOKIE-BUSTING BLOWOUT NFL FOOTBALL CRUSHER
218 Denver -1 4:15 EST</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
Anyone Hitman, Kidd, Hammer.....???
$25.00 Guaranteed: Are you ready to ROCK YOUR MAN TODAY! This is HUGE as we have isolated one of our strongest NFL selections EVER!!! You can get our 5000* BOOKIE-BUSTING SUNDAY NIGHT NFL CRUSHER today for only $25! We were 24-11 last year in the NFL and WE WILL CRUSH YOU MAN WITH THIS WINNER TODAY!!!</TD><TD vAlign=top noWrap align=right>9/14/2008</TD></TR><TR><TD colSpan=2> </TD></TR><TR><TD colSpan=2>5000* BOOKIE-BUSTING SUNDAY NIGHT NFL CRUSHER
220 Cleveland +6 8:15 EST</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=3 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD vAlign=top>Date: Sunday, September 14, 2008
$25.00 Guaranteed: Are you ready to ROCK YOUR MAN TODAY! This is HUGE as we have isolated one of our strongest NFL selections EVER!!! You can get our 5000* BOOKIE-BUSTING BLOWOUT NFL FOOTBALL CRUSHER today for only $25! We were 24-11 last year in the NFL and WE WILL CRUSH YOU MAN WITH THIS WINNER TODAY!!!</TD><TD vAlign=top noWrap align=right>9/14/2008</TD></TR><TR><TD colSpan=2> </TD></TR><TR><TD colSpan=2>5000* BOOKIE-BUSTING BLOWOUT NFL FOOTBALL CRUSHER
218 Denver -1 4:15 EST</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
Anyone Hitman, Kidd, Hammer.....???
Larry Ness' Superstar Triple Play-NFL Week 2 (1st of FB '08)
My three STPs are on the Ind Colts at 1:00 ET, NYG/StL Over at 1:00 which is my Week 2 Total of the Week and the Sea Seahawks (4:05 ET).
STP on NYG/StL Over (NFL Week 2 Total of the Week)
Note: Larry had some late-night computer problems on Saturday and his usual analysis is not available. STP on the Ind Colts.
Note: Larry had some late-night computer problems on Saturday and his usual analysis is not available.
STP on the Sea Seahawks.
Note: Larry had some late-night computer problems on Saturday and his usual analysis is not available.
Good Luck...Larry
Larry Ness' Weekend Wipeout Winner NFL Week 2 (won 38-3 in Week 1w/Philly!)
My Weekend Wipeout Winner is on the TB Bucs at 4:05 ET. Weekend Wipeout Winner on the TB Bucs.
Good Luck...Larry
Larry Ness' Las Vegas Insider-MLB (51-31 with MLB Insiders since May 26)
My Las Vegas Insider is on the Bo Red Sox at 1:35 ET. Las Vegas Insider on the Bos Red Sox.
Good Luck...Larry
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My three STPs are on the Ind Colts at 1:00 ET, NYG/StL Over at 1:00 which is my Week 2 Total of the Week and the Sea Seahawks (4:05 ET).
STP on NYG/StL Over (NFL Week 2 Total of the Week)
Note: Larry had some late-night computer problems on Saturday and his usual analysis is not available. STP on the Ind Colts.
Note: Larry had some late-night computer problems on Saturday and his usual analysis is not available.
STP on the Sea Seahawks.
Note: Larry had some late-night computer problems on Saturday and his usual analysis is not available.
Good Luck...Larry
Larry Ness' Weekend Wipeout Winner NFL Week 2 (won 38-3 in Week 1w/Philly!)
My Weekend Wipeout Winner is on the TB Bucs at 4:05 ET. Weekend Wipeout Winner on the TB Bucs.
Good Luck...Larry
Larry Ness' Las Vegas Insider-MLB (51-31 with MLB Insiders since May 26)
My Las Vegas Insider is on the Bo Red Sox at 1:35 ET. Las Vegas Insider on the Bos Red Sox.
Good Luck...Larry
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