CKO
10 Detroit Lions
NINE-RATED GAMES
BUFFALO (+3) vs. Miami (NFL)—Bills have won and covered last five meetings in Orchard Park (Dolphins won two years ago in Toronto); Buffalo players have taken to Chan Gailey’s improved offense.
TOTALS:
OVER (45) in the Cincinnati-New England game—Welker back sooner than expected for Pats, who love new TE Gronkowski; Bengals receivers enhanced by Welker-like rookie Shipley & TE Gresham, not to mention the physical T.O.
OVER (48) in the Green Bay-Philadelphia game—Aaron Rodgers better protected TY, but Packer defense is missing starting DBs Harris & Bigby, so Philly’s offensive speed should keep the Eagles firing away.
10 Detroit Lions
NINE-RATED GAMES
BUFFALO (+3) vs. Miami (NFL)—Bills have won and covered last five meetings in Orchard Park (Dolphins won two years ago in Toronto); Buffalo players have taken to Chan Gailey’s improved offense.
TOTALS:
OVER (45) in the Cincinnati-New England game—Welker back sooner than expected for Pats, who love new TE Gronkowski; Bengals receivers enhanced by Welker-like rookie Shipley & TE Gresham, not to mention the physical T.O.
OVER (48) in the Green Bay-Philadelphia game—Aaron Rodgers better protected TY, but Packer defense is missing starting DBs Harris & Bigby, so Philly’s offensive speed should keep the Eagles firing away.
JOYCE STERLING
10 STAR NFL GAME OF THE WEEK
Seattle +3 vs SFO
This is Pete Carroll's debut for Seattle and Qwest Field is the loudest outdoor Stadium in the NFL.
Carroll 4-0 ATS Season openers 3-1 Straight up.
Matt Hasselback is healthy.
Seattle is Dangerous at home.
Singletary 1-2 ATS laying points on the road.
SFO is 1-6 ATS last 7 as a road favorite.
Philadelphia +3 vs Green Bay
Kolb replaces McNabb and we feel he is ready.
Reid is 4-0 Straight up in the series
Piladelphia has been favored in each of the last 4 meetings
Phila will have their defense in tact.
Contrary Game of the Week
Monday Night
UNDER 35.5 NYJ vs Baltimore
the Jets will blitz from every angle and in every situation and they will play a lot of man schemes behind it.
Baltimore's defense consistently ranked among the league's best with Ryan in charge, and New York was the best in the NFL in his first year.
10 STAR NFL GAME OF THE WEEK
Seattle +3 vs SFO
This is Pete Carroll's debut for Seattle and Qwest Field is the loudest outdoor Stadium in the NFL.
Carroll 4-0 ATS Season openers 3-1 Straight up.
Matt Hasselback is healthy.
Seattle is Dangerous at home.
Singletary 1-2 ATS laying points on the road.
SFO is 1-6 ATS last 7 as a road favorite.
Philadelphia +3 vs Green Bay
Kolb replaces McNabb and we feel he is ready.
Reid is 4-0 Straight up in the series
Piladelphia has been favored in each of the last 4 meetings
Phila will have their defense in tact.
Contrary Game of the Week
Monday Night
UNDER 35.5 NYJ vs Baltimore
the Jets will blitz from every angle and in every situation and they will play a lot of man schemes behind it.
Baltimore's defense consistently ranked among the league's best with Ryan in charge, and New York was the best in the NFL in his first year.
THE SHARK
NFL Week 1
20 Star Special
Green Bay -3
Been in love with this game since it was 1st posted month's ago at a pick.
Green Bay will be one of the playoff teams this year and may be in the "big game itself".
The eagles will be lucky if they win seven games.
I love the 1st half(game will be over by then) and the game.
Pick is Green Bay -3
NFL Week 1
20 Star Special
Green Bay -3
Been in love with this game since it was 1st posted month's ago at a pick.
Green Bay will be one of the playoff teams this year and may be in the "big game itself".
The eagles will be lucky if they win seven games.
I love the 1st half(game will be over by then) and the game.
Pick is Green Bay -3
OFFSHORE SPORTS
DR DANNY JOYCE OFFSHORE SPORTS
DR'S "5 STAR NFL PICK OF THE DAY"
Indianapolis Colts @ Houston Texans
It's upset city and take the TEXANS to cover and win outright and party in Houston with Kubiak's first big win!
This is a game our staff of experts liked intitally and it has grown steadily into a rare 5* selection! Initially we hesitated because the Texans are famous for their slow starts 1-5 SU & ATS the last six years. Still, there is a trend here in that when playing the Colts the last three times they lost by 4,6 and 3 (after leading by 13 at halftime. The Texans know they must start winning the close ones to contend for not only the playoffs, but the division title. Head coach Gary Kubiak is an offensive genius, who has taken Matt Shwaub and made him a pro bowl QB. They had the #4 ranked offensive in the NFL last year and are 8-3 ATS the spread as a home dog, and more importantly are 5-1 ATS as a home division doggie. I'm not sure why the NFL did this 9-7 team a disservice by awarding them the #1 most difficult schedule with "7" playoff teams and a overall winning record of 51.3 %! Just getting to the playoffs will be an accomplishment, but one they are still capable of!
Now Indy is in a funk, losing all four pre-season games, has some people banged up, and Peyton Manning is still unhappy about the rule change that is speeding up the game and taking away from his time at the line of scrimmage to read and dicet the defense. Factor in that for the first time ever in his NFL career he is performing behind an offensive line that is no longer coached by vetreran OL coach Mudd who retired. Add in the injuries to center Saturday, LT Johnson, as well as dependable back-up OT/OG Ugoh and you see some game slippage here. The Texans are very aware of just how close they are to breaking this jinx, and we predict that Kubiak and his DC will rely on the ever improved defensive line to take advantage of the mismatched Indianapolis OL to keep Manning out of his rhythm, while the #4 offense does it's thing with a healthy TE Daniels back in the fold.
When you add this 4* selction to our 5* NFL "PICK OF THE DAY" it sets a dangerous precedent for opening week parlay that may be hard to follow. The Green Bay Packers travel east to play the Philadelphia Eagles. A little known fact about pre-season is that the Pack ran "14" series in their first three exhibition games with their first team and only punted three times, having only one three and out! Pro Bowl QB Aaron Rodgers threw for 470 yards in limited action and completed 77% of his passes and scored 6 of 6 possessions. Can't get much better than that! Now that he has an established running back in Ryan Grant who has put together back to back 1200 yard rushing seasons, the pressure has been eased greatly from Rodger's arm to provide all the offense. More importantly he is playing behind a healthy and vastly improved offensive line, that got better with top draft pick of Bryan Buluga (Iowa). True the Packers have defensive secondary problems with CB Harris and SS Bigby out and Bigby replaced by a rookie. Still DC Dom Capers deliberately kept his pre-season defensive itinerary stripped down to hide the exotic blitzs he has become famous for and will hurl at first year Philly QB Kevin Kolb. The Packers have the top ranked rushing defense in the NFL and were #1 in turnover margin last year, so Kolb will have to successfully throw the football..
Coach Andy Reid woke up one morning and said I have to make some radical changes immmediately, and got rid of veteran QB Donovan McNabb (never truly appreciated here) and loved do it all purpose back Bryan Westbrook plus others. They now are banking on the inexperienced Kevin Kolb, only two starts, running back LeSean McCoy to replace Westbrook. Kolb is a rhythmn, quick, accuracy passer that in all probability will run a more traditional West Coast Offense. Meaning that there will more short routes and leaving the recievers chances to run and get yardage after the reception. This will be highly benefical to young, dynamic WR's DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin. The Eagles have a very fast agressive defense that they will throw at the pack, and they really attempted to strengthen it with early draft picks.
This game could turn into a shootout, but for our money we'll go with the more experienced Rodgers who was 8-4 ATS as a favorite last year. Lay the spread and take the GREEN BAY PACKERS cover and WIN!
DR DANNY JOYCE OFFSHORE SPORTS
DR'S "5 STAR NFL PICK OF THE DAY"
Indianapolis Colts @ Houston Texans
It's upset city and take the TEXANS to cover and win outright and party in Houston with Kubiak's first big win!
This is a game our staff of experts liked intitally and it has grown steadily into a rare 5* selection! Initially we hesitated because the Texans are famous for their slow starts 1-5 SU & ATS the last six years. Still, there is a trend here in that when playing the Colts the last three times they lost by 4,6 and 3 (after leading by 13 at halftime. The Texans know they must start winning the close ones to contend for not only the playoffs, but the division title. Head coach Gary Kubiak is an offensive genius, who has taken Matt Shwaub and made him a pro bowl QB. They had the #4 ranked offensive in the NFL last year and are 8-3 ATS the spread as a home dog, and more importantly are 5-1 ATS as a home division doggie. I'm not sure why the NFL did this 9-7 team a disservice by awarding them the #1 most difficult schedule with "7" playoff teams and a overall winning record of 51.3 %! Just getting to the playoffs will be an accomplishment, but one they are still capable of!
Now Indy is in a funk, losing all four pre-season games, has some people banged up, and Peyton Manning is still unhappy about the rule change that is speeding up the game and taking away from his time at the line of scrimmage to read and dicet the defense. Factor in that for the first time ever in his NFL career he is performing behind an offensive line that is no longer coached by vetreran OL coach Mudd who retired. Add in the injuries to center Saturday, LT Johnson, as well as dependable back-up OT/OG Ugoh and you see some game slippage here. The Texans are very aware of just how close they are to breaking this jinx, and we predict that Kubiak and his DC will rely on the ever improved defensive line to take advantage of the mismatched Indianapolis OL to keep Manning out of his rhythm, while the #4 offense does it's thing with a healthy TE Daniels back in the fold.
When you add this 4* selction to our 5* NFL "PICK OF THE DAY" it sets a dangerous precedent for opening week parlay that may be hard to follow. The Green Bay Packers travel east to play the Philadelphia Eagles. A little known fact about pre-season is that the Pack ran "14" series in their first three exhibition games with their first team and only punted three times, having only one three and out! Pro Bowl QB Aaron Rodgers threw for 470 yards in limited action and completed 77% of his passes and scored 6 of 6 possessions. Can't get much better than that! Now that he has an established running back in Ryan Grant who has put together back to back 1200 yard rushing seasons, the pressure has been eased greatly from Rodger's arm to provide all the offense. More importantly he is playing behind a healthy and vastly improved offensive line, that got better with top draft pick of Bryan Buluga (Iowa). True the Packers have defensive secondary problems with CB Harris and SS Bigby out and Bigby replaced by a rookie. Still DC Dom Capers deliberately kept his pre-season defensive itinerary stripped down to hide the exotic blitzs he has become famous for and will hurl at first year Philly QB Kevin Kolb. The Packers have the top ranked rushing defense in the NFL and were #1 in turnover margin last year, so Kolb will have to successfully throw the football..
Coach Andy Reid woke up one morning and said I have to make some radical changes immmediately, and got rid of veteran QB Donovan McNabb (never truly appreciated here) and loved do it all purpose back Bryan Westbrook plus others. They now are banking on the inexperienced Kevin Kolb, only two starts, running back LeSean McCoy to replace Westbrook. Kolb is a rhythmn, quick, accuracy passer that in all probability will run a more traditional West Coast Offense. Meaning that there will more short routes and leaving the recievers chances to run and get yardage after the reception. This will be highly benefical to young, dynamic WR's DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin. The Eagles have a very fast agressive defense that they will throw at the pack, and they really attempted to strengthen it with early draft picks.
This game could turn into a shootout, but for our money we'll go with the more experienced Rodgers who was 8-4 ATS as a favorite last year. Lay the spread and take the GREEN BAY PACKERS cover and WIN!
Cowboys at Redskins: What Bettors Need To Know
Dallas Cowboys at Washington Redskins (+3.5, 40)
What a way to open the 2010 NFL season. Another installment of arguably the best rivalry in football will take place when the Cowboys travel to FedEx Field for a date with the Redskins.
Dallas is coming off a season in which it won the NFC East at 11-5 and finally won a playoff game for the first time since 1996. Washington struggled to a 4-12 record - its worst since a 3-13 campaign in 1994 - and missed out of the postseason for a second consecutive year.
Line Movement
The Cowboys opened as 3.5-point favorites at most betting sites during the offseason. The spread briefly peaked at 4.5 earlier this week, but it is once again at 3.5. The total opened at 43 and has been on a steady decline to 40 ever since.
Injury Report
Neither team is beginning the season in terrible shape, but the Cowboys are dealing with some issues. They will be missing two starting offensive linemen. Right tackle Marc Colombo and left guard Kyle Kosier are both out with knee injuries. Wide receiver Dez Bryant and defensive end Marcus Spears are listed as probable with knee injuries and will play.
The Redskins are looking good. Donovan McNabb was downgraded from probable to questionable with an ankle injury, but he announced that he will be ready to go. An illness had defensive end Andre Carter questionable earlier in the week, but he said that he is fine Friday.
Weather Or Not
There is a 50 percent chance of rain in Landover, MD Sunday. Although, any potential showers are expected to move through by late afternoon.
Prior Engagements
Dallas won both of the meetings between the two rivals last year. The Cowboys prevailed 7-6 at home on November 22, but did not come close to covering the 11-point spread. As 7-point road favorites on December 27, the Cowboys blanked Washington 17-0.
The Redskins were held to fewer than 100 yards rushing in each of the 2009 contests - 78 in the first game and a mere 43 in the second. They were limited to just 165 total yards in the second game after mustering only 246 in the first.
Three-FORE!
To say the Cowboys and Redskins are familiar foes would be an understatement, but there is a new twist of sorts this time around. Washington will be showcasing its new 3-4 defensive scheme.
“It's tough just from how they try to attack you,” Cowboys tight end Jason Witten told reporters. “And I think we have a pretty general idea of how they're going to play that defense, what their philosophy is behind it. You know what they're about, and that defense is one of the top 10 over the last decade. I know they're going to be ready to play and try to keep us in negative situations as far as down-and-distance.”
The Cowboys faced three teams with new 3-4 defenses in 2009. They posted a 1-2 record in those games against the Broncos, Chiefs, and Packers, averaging 14.3 points per contest.
Be Like Mike
The Redskins are not only coming out with a revamped defense, but they have also switched to a new offensive scheme. That’s simply what happens when Mike Shanahan takes over as head coach. Shanahan, of course, is bringing his zone-blocking scheme with him from Denver to Washington.
Count running back Clinton Portis among those who are signed up and ready to go.
“I actually feel great about our offense because I know the scheme is set up not to ask (offensive linemen) to do a lot,” Portis noted. “If they know the game plan and know what they have to do, the scheme alone is going to put us at an advantage. It’s going to be a hit or miss.”
Portis is also excited just to be back on the field after missing the last eight games of the 2009 season due to a concussion.
“I think that (the concussion) was a blessing,” he explained. “I think that it gives you the opportunity to go out and realize how much being on the field really means to you, how much being around your teammates means and not feeling like the missing link.”
Trending Topics
The Cowboys wrapped up last season by going 4-1 ATS in their last five games and they were 4-1 ATS in their last five contests against NFC opposition. The Redskins were 5-2-1 ATS in their last eight games overall.
Dallas (4-1 ATS in its last five Week 1 outings) generally gets off to a better start than Washington (0-3-2 ATS in its last five season openers). However, the turf-loving Cowboys are 1-4 ATS in their last five forays on grass while the Redskins are 3-0-3 ATS in their last six grass games.
The over was 5-1 in each team’s last six games during the 2009 season. The over was 5-1 in the Cowboys’ last six road games and 4-1 in the Redskins last five home dates.
Head-to-head, the road team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings between the two teams and the under is 4-1 in the last five encounters. The Cowboys are just 2-5 ATS in their last seven overall against Washington, but they are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 as visitors.
Dallas Cowboys at Washington Redskins (+3.5, 40)
What a way to open the 2010 NFL season. Another installment of arguably the best rivalry in football will take place when the Cowboys travel to FedEx Field for a date with the Redskins.
Dallas is coming off a season in which it won the NFC East at 11-5 and finally won a playoff game for the first time since 1996. Washington struggled to a 4-12 record - its worst since a 3-13 campaign in 1994 - and missed out of the postseason for a second consecutive year.
Line Movement
The Cowboys opened as 3.5-point favorites at most betting sites during the offseason. The spread briefly peaked at 4.5 earlier this week, but it is once again at 3.5. The total opened at 43 and has been on a steady decline to 40 ever since.
Injury Report
Neither team is beginning the season in terrible shape, but the Cowboys are dealing with some issues. They will be missing two starting offensive linemen. Right tackle Marc Colombo and left guard Kyle Kosier are both out with knee injuries. Wide receiver Dez Bryant and defensive end Marcus Spears are listed as probable with knee injuries and will play.
The Redskins are looking good. Donovan McNabb was downgraded from probable to questionable with an ankle injury, but he announced that he will be ready to go. An illness had defensive end Andre Carter questionable earlier in the week, but he said that he is fine Friday.
Weather Or Not
There is a 50 percent chance of rain in Landover, MD Sunday. Although, any potential showers are expected to move through by late afternoon.
Prior Engagements
Dallas won both of the meetings between the two rivals last year. The Cowboys prevailed 7-6 at home on November 22, but did not come close to covering the 11-point spread. As 7-point road favorites on December 27, the Cowboys blanked Washington 17-0.
The Redskins were held to fewer than 100 yards rushing in each of the 2009 contests - 78 in the first game and a mere 43 in the second. They were limited to just 165 total yards in the second game after mustering only 246 in the first.
Three-FORE!
To say the Cowboys and Redskins are familiar foes would be an understatement, but there is a new twist of sorts this time around. Washington will be showcasing its new 3-4 defensive scheme.
“It's tough just from how they try to attack you,” Cowboys tight end Jason Witten told reporters. “And I think we have a pretty general idea of how they're going to play that defense, what their philosophy is behind it. You know what they're about, and that defense is one of the top 10 over the last decade. I know they're going to be ready to play and try to keep us in negative situations as far as down-and-distance.”
The Cowboys faced three teams with new 3-4 defenses in 2009. They posted a 1-2 record in those games against the Broncos, Chiefs, and Packers, averaging 14.3 points per contest.
Be Like Mike
The Redskins are not only coming out with a revamped defense, but they have also switched to a new offensive scheme. That’s simply what happens when Mike Shanahan takes over as head coach. Shanahan, of course, is bringing his zone-blocking scheme with him from Denver to Washington.
Count running back Clinton Portis among those who are signed up and ready to go.
“I actually feel great about our offense because I know the scheme is set up not to ask (offensive linemen) to do a lot,” Portis noted. “If they know the game plan and know what they have to do, the scheme alone is going to put us at an advantage. It’s going to be a hit or miss.”
Portis is also excited just to be back on the field after missing the last eight games of the 2009 season due to a concussion.
“I think that (the concussion) was a blessing,” he explained. “I think that it gives you the opportunity to go out and realize how much being on the field really means to you, how much being around your teammates means and not feeling like the missing link.”
Trending Topics
The Cowboys wrapped up last season by going 4-1 ATS in their last five games and they were 4-1 ATS in their last five contests against NFC opposition. The Redskins were 5-2-1 ATS in their last eight games overall.
Dallas (4-1 ATS in its last five Week 1 outings) generally gets off to a better start than Washington (0-3-2 ATS in its last five season openers). However, the turf-loving Cowboys are 1-4 ATS in their last five forays on grass while the Redskins are 3-0-3 ATS in their last six grass games.
The over was 5-1 in each team’s last six games during the 2009 season. The over was 5-1 in the Cowboys’ last six road games and 4-1 in the Redskins last five home dates.
Head-to-head, the road team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings between the two teams and the under is 4-1 in the last five encounters. The Cowboys are just 2-5 ATS in their last seven overall against Washington, but they are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 as visitors.
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Where The Action Is: NFL Week 1 Line Moves
Carolina Panthers at New York Giants
Opening line: NY Giants -7, 41
Current line: NY Giants -7, 40
Around 65 percent of the action is on the Giants -7, but Carolina has seen a bit more sharp action. The public tends to back teams who are celebrating something. In this case, it is the first game in New Meadowlands Stadium.
Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills
Opening line: Miami -3, 37.5
Current line: Miami -3 -120, 39
Nobody is giving the Bills much of a chance this year. Unsurprisingly, 90 percent of the action is on Miami and the Over has taken about 60 percent of the action.
Atlanta Falcons at Pittsburgh Steelers
Opening line: Atlanta -2.5, 38
Current line: Atlanta -2.5, 38
Most of the sharp action and 70 percent of the total action is on Atlanta. Dennis Dixon is no Ben Roethlisberger. The only reason this line is not bigger is Pittsburgh’s defense. Action on the total is dead even.
Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears
Opening line: Chicago -7, 43
Current line: Chicago -6.5, 44.5
Most of the action on the sides is split pretty evenly on Chicago -6.5. This game has seen a lot of sharp action on Over 43.5.
Cincinnati Bengals at New England Patriots
Opening line: New England -5, 44
Current line: New England -5.5, 45.5
Roughly 60 percent of the action is on the Patriots with most of the sharp action coming in on New England at -4.5. With all the offensive stars in this game, I am not surprised that 88 percent of the action on the total is on the Over.
Cleveland Browns at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Opening line: Tampa Bay -3, 36.5
Current line: Tampa Bay -3, 37
The sharp action is on Cleveland and the public tends to agree, as the Browns have 60 percent of the action. We probably won’t see the Bucs listed as favorites too many more times this year. Action on the total is evenly split.
Denver Broncos at Jacksonville Jaguars
Opening line: Jacksonville -2.5, 39.5
Current line: Jacksonville -3, 40
Sharp action on this game is on the Jags -2.5 and the Jags have taken 59 percent of the total action, mostly at -2.5. The Over has slightly more action at 52 percent.
Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans
Opening line: Indianapolis -3, 46.5
Current line: Indianapolis -1.5, 48
The Colts will always take public action and this week 80 percent of the side action is on the Colts. Late sharp action caused the line to drop from -3 to -1.5. With the favorite taking so much action, the Over is expectedly taking the majority of the action on the total with 78 percent coming in at Over 47.
Oakland Raiders at Tennessee Titans
Opening line: Tennessee -6.5, 40.5
Current line: Tennessee -6.5 -115, 40.5
An overwhelming 80 percent of the side action is on the Titans at -6.5. Sharp action is also on the Titans. Action on the total is split with exactly 50 percent on each side.
Green Bay Packers at Philadelphia Eagles
Opening line: Green Bay -1, 44.5
Current line: Green Bay -3.5, 48
Green Bay took a lot of sharp action at -2.5 and the Packers have a staggering 94 percent of the total action. Naturally, 70 percent of the action on the total is on the Over with most of it coming in at 47.5.
San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks
Opening line: San Francisco -2.5, 38
Current line: San Francisco -3 -120, 37
Sharp and public action is all on San Francisco (94 percent) and the Over (77 percent). The Seahawks should pose much of a problem for anybody this year.
Arizona Cardinals at St Louis Rams
Opening line: Arizona -4, 39
Current line: Arizona -4, 39.5
The Cardinals are seeing 63 percent of the action, all coming in at -4. I think we will normally see a greater proportion of the action coming in on the Rams’ opponents, but people are not sure how good (or bad) Derek Anderson will be for Arizona. The Over is also seeing 63 percent of the action, mostly at 39.
Carolina Panthers at New York Giants
Opening line: NY Giants -7, 41
Current line: NY Giants -7, 40
Around 65 percent of the action is on the Giants -7, but Carolina has seen a bit more sharp action. The public tends to back teams who are celebrating something. In this case, it is the first game in New Meadowlands Stadium.
Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills
Opening line: Miami -3, 37.5
Current line: Miami -3 -120, 39
Nobody is giving the Bills much of a chance this year. Unsurprisingly, 90 percent of the action is on Miami and the Over has taken about 60 percent of the action.
Atlanta Falcons at Pittsburgh Steelers
Opening line: Atlanta -2.5, 38
Current line: Atlanta -2.5, 38
Most of the sharp action and 70 percent of the total action is on Atlanta. Dennis Dixon is no Ben Roethlisberger. The only reason this line is not bigger is Pittsburgh’s defense. Action on the total is dead even.
Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears
Opening line: Chicago -7, 43
Current line: Chicago -6.5, 44.5
Most of the action on the sides is split pretty evenly on Chicago -6.5. This game has seen a lot of sharp action on Over 43.5.
Cincinnati Bengals at New England Patriots
Opening line: New England -5, 44
Current line: New England -5.5, 45.5
Roughly 60 percent of the action is on the Patriots with most of the sharp action coming in on New England at -4.5. With all the offensive stars in this game, I am not surprised that 88 percent of the action on the total is on the Over.
Cleveland Browns at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Opening line: Tampa Bay -3, 36.5
Current line: Tampa Bay -3, 37
The sharp action is on Cleveland and the public tends to agree, as the Browns have 60 percent of the action. We probably won’t see the Bucs listed as favorites too many more times this year. Action on the total is evenly split.
Denver Broncos at Jacksonville Jaguars
Opening line: Jacksonville -2.5, 39.5
Current line: Jacksonville -3, 40
Sharp action on this game is on the Jags -2.5 and the Jags have taken 59 percent of the total action, mostly at -2.5. The Over has slightly more action at 52 percent.
Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans
Opening line: Indianapolis -3, 46.5
Current line: Indianapolis -1.5, 48
The Colts will always take public action and this week 80 percent of the side action is on the Colts. Late sharp action caused the line to drop from -3 to -1.5. With the favorite taking so much action, the Over is expectedly taking the majority of the action on the total with 78 percent coming in at Over 47.
Oakland Raiders at Tennessee Titans
Opening line: Tennessee -6.5, 40.5
Current line: Tennessee -6.5 -115, 40.5
An overwhelming 80 percent of the side action is on the Titans at -6.5. Sharp action is also on the Titans. Action on the total is split with exactly 50 percent on each side.
Green Bay Packers at Philadelphia Eagles
Opening line: Green Bay -1, 44.5
Current line: Green Bay -3.5, 48
Green Bay took a lot of sharp action at -2.5 and the Packers have a staggering 94 percent of the total action. Naturally, 70 percent of the action on the total is on the Over with most of it coming in at 47.5.
San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks
Opening line: San Francisco -2.5, 38
Current line: San Francisco -3 -120, 37
Sharp and public action is all on San Francisco (94 percent) and the Over (77 percent). The Seahawks should pose much of a problem for anybody this year.
Arizona Cardinals at St Louis Rams
Opening line: Arizona -4, 39
Current line: Arizona -4, 39.5
The Cardinals are seeing 63 percent of the action, all coming in at -4. I think we will normally see a greater proportion of the action coming in on the Rams’ opponents, but people are not sure how good (or bad) Derek Anderson will be for Arizona. The Over is also seeing 63 percent of the action, mostly at 39.
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Sunday's Streaking And Slumping Starting Pitchers
Streaking
Roy Oswalt, Philadelphia Phillies (11-13, 3.09 ERA)
The Phillies right hander is heating up at the right time. With the playoff hunt at full speed, Oswalt has lifted Philadelphia with his recent outings. He’s gone undefeated since July 30, posting a 5-1 record and 2.30 ERA since joining the defending NL champs. In his last start, Oswalt allowed four runs on six hits over seven innings for a 7-4 win over the Florida Marlins.
Ian Kennedy, Arizona Diamondbacks (9-9, 4.01 ERA)
Kennedy hasn’t tasted defeat since August 4, going 3-0 in his last six trips to the bump. The D-backs righty is 2-0 with a trim 1.20 ERA in his last three appearances, including giving up only two hits over eight innings in a 2-0 loss to the San Francisco Giants for a no decision.
Slumping
Jeff Vargas, Seattle Mariners (9-9, 3.72 ERA)
The Seattle southpaw is stuck in a slippery slump, losing four straight starts. Vargas allowed five runs over just 4 1-3 innings of work in his last start, but is now working off an extra days rest. He’s 2-1 with a 2.68 ERA versus the Los Angeles Angels for his career.
Jeff Niemann, Tampa Bay Rays (10-6, 4.28 ERA)
The Rays righty isn’t helping his team’s cause this September. Niemann has been downright putrid since coming off the DL. He’s 0-3 with a 20.70 ERA including giving up six earned runs – two home runs – in just under two innings pitched. Niemann has allowed seven home runs in his past five games, and now faces the top home-run hitting team in the Toronto Blue Jays.
Streaking
Roy Oswalt, Philadelphia Phillies (11-13, 3.09 ERA)
The Phillies right hander is heating up at the right time. With the playoff hunt at full speed, Oswalt has lifted Philadelphia with his recent outings. He’s gone undefeated since July 30, posting a 5-1 record and 2.30 ERA since joining the defending NL champs. In his last start, Oswalt allowed four runs on six hits over seven innings for a 7-4 win over the Florida Marlins.
Ian Kennedy, Arizona Diamondbacks (9-9, 4.01 ERA)
Kennedy hasn’t tasted defeat since August 4, going 3-0 in his last six trips to the bump. The D-backs righty is 2-0 with a trim 1.20 ERA in his last three appearances, including giving up only two hits over eight innings in a 2-0 loss to the San Francisco Giants for a no decision.
Slumping
Jeff Vargas, Seattle Mariners (9-9, 3.72 ERA)
The Seattle southpaw is stuck in a slippery slump, losing four straight starts. Vargas allowed five runs over just 4 1-3 innings of work in his last start, but is now working off an extra days rest. He’s 2-1 with a 2.68 ERA versus the Los Angeles Angels for his career.
Jeff Niemann, Tampa Bay Rays (10-6, 4.28 ERA)
The Rays righty isn’t helping his team’s cause this September. Niemann has been downright putrid since coming off the DL. He’s 0-3 with a 20.70 ERA including giving up six earned runs – two home runs – in just under two innings pitched. Niemann has allowed seven home runs in his past five games, and now faces the top home-run hitting team in the Toronto Blue Jays.
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Sunday’s Best MLB Bets
Pittsburgh Pirates at Cincinnati Reds (-235, 9)
The Cincinnati Reds snapped a five game losing skid on Friday night with a 4-3 win over the Pirates in extra innings and then won another extra-innings affair 5-4 over the Bucs on Saturday. Those two wins were just what they needed to get back on track. The Reds still sit with a comfortable seven-game lead over the
St. Louis Cardinals as they send Johnny Cueto to the mound against Brian Burres. Take the Reds to close out the sweep if you can handle the chalk.
Pick: Cincinnati Reds
Baltimore Orioles at Detroit Tigers (-215, 8.5)
The Orioles head into this game having won six of their last seven after Saturday night’s impressive 5-3 victory. Baltimore pounded out 16 hits and left 12 runners stranded, but the O’s have scored at least five runs in all but three of its last eight games.
Detroit looks to bounce back against Chris Tilman, who has won just one of his seven starts this year. Tilman is working on a 6.46 ERA over his last three.
Pick: Over
Sunday’s Best MLB Bets
Pittsburgh Pirates at Cincinnati Reds (-235, 9)
The Cincinnati Reds snapped a five game losing skid on Friday night with a 4-3 win over the Pirates in extra innings and then won another extra-innings affair 5-4 over the Bucs on Saturday. Those two wins were just what they needed to get back on track. The Reds still sit with a comfortable seven-game lead over the
St. Louis Cardinals as they send Johnny Cueto to the mound against Brian Burres. Take the Reds to close out the sweep if you can handle the chalk.
Pick: Cincinnati Reds
Baltimore Orioles at Detroit Tigers (-215, 8.5)
The Orioles head into this game having won six of their last seven after Saturday night’s impressive 5-3 victory. Baltimore pounded out 16 hits and left 12 runners stranded, but the O’s have scored at least five runs in all but three of its last eight games.
Detroit looks to bounce back against Chris Tilman, who has won just one of his seven starts this year. Tilman is working on a 6.46 ERA over his last three.
Pick: Over
WNBA Finals Preview
Seattle Storm (28-6) vs. Atlanta Dream (19-15)
Sun Sep 12: Atl @ Sea
Tue Sep 14: Atl @ Sea
Thu Sep 16: Sea @ Atl
Sun Sep 19: Sea @ Atl (if necessary)
Tue Sep 21: Atl @ Sea (if necessary)
Regular season series: Seattle won 2-0
Welcome to the main event, ladies and gentlemen. After four solid months of basketball, we're down to the final two contenders for the WNBA Championship. Best of five, for all the marbles. To my left, the Seattle Storm, the dominant regular-season team who looked like they'd be here all season long. Led by MVP Lauren Jackson and All-World point guard Sue Bird, they've been the bookmakers' favorites since May. To my right, the Atlanta Dream, who played great in May themselves, before producing barely .500 basketball the rest of the way. Since hitting the postseason they've been reborn, charging past Eastern Conference rivals without losing a game. Led by second-year phenom Angel McCoughtry, this is a rejuvenated Atlanta team, who enter the Finals as underdogs but without any doubt that they can compete. Can the young, upstart Dream upset a Storm team that have looked so strong all year? It's time to find out.
Let's look at the favorites first. Seattle has been so good all year long because they're smart, disciplined, balanced, work extremely hard, and because 'throw Lauren the ball' is a heck of a first option. If you've read my previews of earlier rounds or my column through the season, you've heard all the stats by now: second-best offensive team in the league in terms of points per possession; second-best defensive team in the same statistic; best rebounding team in the League; gave up the fewest points in the paint, the fewest points off turnovers, and the fewest fast-break points per game in the WNBA. This is a very, very good team. Beyond all those numbers, this is also a squad that simply knows how to win. They won 13 games in the regular season when they were trailing going into the fourth quarter - the most any other team managed was four. As they exhibited in completing the Western Conference Finals sweep over Phoenix last Sunday, the Storm don't ever quit, and when games are tight in the final seconds they have the talent and composure to close them out. You might outplay them for a quarter or even a half, but over 40 minutes they've found a way to come out on top, time and time again all year long.
Examining the Dream as a unit is more difficult, because this playoff team isn't quite the same as the one we've seen for much of the season. Head coach Marynell Meadors made a big decision going into their opening round against Washington, adding guards Coco Miller and Armintie Price to the starting lineup in place of point guard Shalee Lehning and center Erika de Souza. While they've often switched back to their more standard look during games, this smaller, quicker starting lineup has given the Dream the impetus they needed, helping them to two straight sweeps over Washington and New York. They're a team that likes to run, run, and keep on running. Having Miller and Price out there to start games has added athleticism and defensive pressure on the perimeter, which creates turnovers and helps them get out in transition. They've averaged nearly 18 fast-break points per game in the playoffs so far, more than anyone managed in the regular season, and when they get out like that it builds momentum and confidence that leads to dangerous scoring streaks. When they're rolling, the Dream can start to look like a juggernaut, because their length, pace and size makes them hard to stop. A central part of Seattle head coach Brian Agler's gameplan will simply be to slow them down.
Checking out the personnel matchups in this series, the Storm would seem to have an advantage in talent at the guard spots, although not necessarily in depth. Sue Bird is the best point guard in the game, running the offense with calculated precision and stepping up to take important shots when necessary, as miserable Mercury fans can attest. Alongside her is Tanisha Wright, who's developed into a solid ballhandler and useful complementary scorer, while also appearing on the WNBA All-Defensive First Team for the second year in a row. Wright is carrying a knee injury which hindered her mobility slightly in the Phoenix series, but she's tough enough to play through it without too much drop-off in her game. Off the bench, Svetlana Abrosimova has been an outstanding sixth woman for Seattle this year, providing 20 minutes per game of hustle, energy and offensive aggression to spell Bird and Wright. It's not the most athletic trio in the World, but all three are smart and tend to make the right play when called upon, and all three can make shots.
Over on Atlanta's side, the guard situation is a little more complicated. Having worked so well so far in the playoffs, expect Coco Miller and Armintie Price to start, but Shalee Lehning will come off the bench and Iziane Castro Marques will slide over to play plenty of minutes at the guard spots as well. Miller's had an exceptional postseason, especially considering her virtual invisibility throughout the regular season. She's hitting shots from all angles and playing aggressive defense against whichever matchup is placed in front of her. The real defensive force on the perimeter, however, has been Price, who was tasked with chasing around the likes of Lindsey Harding and Cappie Pondexter in the first two rounds. It may well be her job to try and pressure Sue Bird as much as possible in this series. Price's crazy athleticism makes her a threat to create turnovers and score on the break, but if the Storm force her into becoming a jumpshooter, she becomes an offensive liability. Lehning may have lost her starting role, but she's come off the bench in the playoffs and still been a useful piece of the puzzle. She's smart and controlled, and she knows when to push the tempo to keep Atlanta on the front foot. Castro Marques is Atlanta's wildcard. The Dream's second-highest scorer this season, she led the League by miles in fast-break points, and if you don't pick her up on the break or just off your own misses she'll be flying to the basket before you can blink. She consistently throws up her trademark funky-looking running shots from either side of the hoop, but they've been consistently going in all year. However, Izi's a born gunner, and she's been known to go decidedly cold but just keep firing away. Wright will probably be on her for much of the series, and if she can slow Izi down and stay in front of her, then Atlanta's offense loses one of its most dangerous weapons.
By the end of the month they may well be on the same roster for Team USA at the World Championships, but for the next week or two the small forwards in this series will play a central role in deciding the victor. Angel McCoughtry is Atlanta's leader, primary offensive option, and as she showed in scoring a playoff-record 42 points to close out New York on Tuesday night, a fearsome prospect to try and stop. While some were still questioning whether she had the killer instinct to close out a playoff series on her own, McCoughtry went off against New York and produced an individual performance that had spectators purring (as long as they weren't Liberty fans). The question is whether she can do it against a significantly tougher perimeter defense in Seattle. Angel got to the free-throw line a ridiculous 38 times in the two-game series against the Liberty, and although she's been consistently good at getting to the line all year, it's hard to see those numbers being anywhere near as high against Seattle's strong, rotating defence. As with Castro Marques, if you limit McCoughtry's fast-break opportunities and can stay in front of her enough to limit her free-throw opportunities, she becomes a jumpshooter. If she's just firing away, her chances of hurting the Storm decrease dramatically, because her jumper is still decidedly streaky. Her direct opposition in green, Swin Cash, isn't getting McCoughtry's press these days with Bird and Jackson alongside her, but she's had an outstanding season as a complement to her illustrious teammates. Cash will likely be the primary defender on McCoughtry, and her strength, length and mobility will trouble Angel more than the likes of Powell and Carson did for New York. Cash's offense has diversified this season thanks to drastically improved three-point shooting, which has made her a true threat both inside and out. McCoughtry likes to play the passing lanes, and if she spends too much time gambling or doubling down on Jackson, Cash is primed to hurt the Dream just like she did LA and Phoenix in previous rounds. Watch these two fight it out all series long, and if you're American be happy that neither will be playing against the US in the Czech Republic later this month.
Down in the paint could well be where this series is won and lost. Seattle was first and Atlanta third in the WNBA in rebounding percentage this season, at 54.5% and 53.6% respectively. They were first and second in offensive rebounding. The talented mathematicians among you will recognize that there won't be 108.1% of rebounds to go around in this series, so something's gotta give. The Dream get things done down low by being very, very long, and very, very big. It's not rocket science; when you're ginormous, you're probably going to grab a whole bunch of boards. Despite the smaller starting lineup they've been throwing out, they've still had two of Sancho Lyttle, Erika de Souza, Alison Bales and Yelena Leuchanka on the floor for the majority of their games, and that's a whole lot of beef. Bales and Leuchanka are the backups, usually providing only spot minutes but capable of changing shots defensively, taking up a lot of room and scoring reasonably efficiently if you lose track of them. De Souza has been a starter all season but hasn't complained about coming off the bench in the postseason, using the time to gauge the flow of the game and avoid the early foul trouble that sometimes plagues her. New York complained long and hard about the Atlanta bigs going over the back for rebounds in the Eastern Finals, and Erika was a primary culprit, but if the officials call this series a similar way the simple height and bulk of de Souza could hand Atlanta the advantage on the boards. She was hitting her baseline jumper against the Liberty as well, which makes her even more dangerous offensively. Lyttle is a different kind of player, with her long limbs and bouncy athleticism making her a defensive threat and a rebounding annoyance. The Dream will mix up their looks defensively against Jackson, including using the zone that worked so well against Washington, but it's likely to be Lyttle that will chase her around through much of the series. Sancho has the speed and the stamina to do it, and her improved offensive arsenal will make Jackson work defensively as well, but as always it'll be something of a damage limitation exercise.
Seattle is a different animal from the Dream down on the block, but no less dangerous. They may not have the pure size and length of Atlanta, but the presence of League MVP Lauren Jackson means that we may barely notice. LJ can score from anywhere, and will do so against whatever defense Atlanta throws at her. Seattle's precision offense and Jackson's talent will get her points down low even with the likes of de Souza and Lyttle patrolling, but if Atlanta tries to camp out and collapse down low, she'll pop out top and drain a few 3s as well. Making her work hard for her points is about all the Dream can hope for, because Seattle is too good to constantly send extra defenders and try to shut her down. LA did that in the first round and she got her usual 20 points per game anyway, while her teammates were left with wide open shots all around her. It's not worth it. Just to top things off, Jackson's a superb defender these days as well (I doubt she really cares, but making her second-team All-Defense this year was less than she deserved). The Storm lack height alongside LJ but they'll still combine to make things very difficult for the Dream down low. Her primary partners in crime this season have been Camille Little and Le'coe Willingham. Neither is much over six-feet tall (whatever the official numbers claim) but both use their bodies well defensively and for rebounding position, and both work extremely hard on the boards. Little and Jackson are also both quicker than most of Atlanta's bigs, which will be one of their main advantages in trying to compete with Atlanta's size. Typically you'd expect that to be the end of Seattle's rotation, cut down to their core seven for the playoffs. However, Atlanta's length and depth means we might see a little of Ashley Robinson, and maybe a little more of Jana Vesela. Robinson isn't much more than a big body who can take up space and play some defense, but Vesela has some range and offensive ability that she's flashed on several occasions this season. When Jackson needs a rest in this series Vesela may well see some time because even though she's not a true post, she's definitely long, and Little/Willingham would be a precariously small post lineup against Atlanta's giants.
It's always dangerous to put too much stock in what happened during the regular season when predicting the playoffs, especially considering the leap that the Dream have managed to take in the last couple of weeks, but Atlanta better hope that the leap's enough to overcome practically all the precedents. Seattle won both games between these two this year, and McCoughtry, Castro Marques and Lyttle went a combined 27-103 from the floor in those two games. That's 26% shooting from Atlanta's three best players. Unless Angel gets to the line about 40 times a game, expect a Storm sweep if those percentages recur. This is the problem Atlanta may have against the Storm: the opportunities to score that made them so effective against Washington and New York simply may not be there against Seattle's defense. The Storm slide and help each other so well defensively that it's hard to find gaps, and they work hard to get back in transition to prevent fast-break chances for their opponents. Seattle is also typically pretty good at keeping its turnover numbers down, which will limit Atlanta's opportunities to get out on the break. Bird and Wright makes smart, tight passes out on the perimeter and that cuts into the chances people like McCoughtry and Price have to jump passing lanes and create steals. If Seattle slows them down, Atlanta is left with its half-court sets, and things might get ugly. Their high-low game started to work again against New York after most teams had worked it out during the regular season, but that was against an undermanned, undersized Liberty post rotation. Expect Cash, Jackson and Little to seriously limit the effectiveness of the seal moves that have become de Souza's stock in trade. If those scoring chances aren't there for Erika and Sancho Lyttle, Atlanta's half-court offense comes down to Angel, Izi and the likes of Coco Miller creating their own shots. The first two rounds of the playoffs went pretty well, and Atlanta even shot nearly 40% from behind the three-point line after being below 29% from beyond the arc during the regular season. But that was when everything was flowing and their confidence was up. No one on Atlanta's perimeter is a proven consistent jump-shooting threat, especially from three-point range, so if Seattle's defense can force them into becoming a half-court team, the Dream are in trouble.
The other element that jumps out from the regular season is the Storm's home record. They were 17-0 in the regular season at Key Arena, 19-0 if you include the playoffs. The ticket sales for Game 1 are already well into five-digits (despite the game taking place on the NFL's opening Sunday), so expect some deafening support for the Storm from arguably the WNBA's most vociferous crowd. No team in WNBA history has ever gone undefeated at home throughout an entire season including the playoffs, but that certainly doesn't mean the Storm are destined to drop at least one in this series. It would just be another record for Seattle to break in this remarkable season. The home-court advantage for the Storm is enhanced even further due to Sesame Street Live occupying Philips Arena in Atlanta through middle of September. The Dream managed to negotiate their way into playing at Philips for Game 3, but if a Game 4 is necessary it'll be all the way out at the Gwinnett Center in Duluth. The crowd would obviously still be pro-Dream, but it wouldn't be the home arena the Dream players have been comfortable in all season. It's certainly not beyond the Dream to finally break the Storm's stranglehold at home - they did win games in both Washington and New York in the last two rounds, after all - but the confidence the Storm have at home is yet another thing in their favor. If we end up heading back to the Key for Game 5 on September 21, with a screaming sea of green baying for a full 40 minutes, do you think McCoughtry's going to get quite so many calls every time she barrels towards the basket?
Here's the good news, Dream fans: I predicted that you'd lose in both the last two rounds as well, so the line below this paragraph could easily be seen as just a kiss of death for the Storm. The Dream seem to have enjoyed their role as the unfancied underdogs so far in the playoffs, coming in as an underperforming fourth seed before surging through in consecutive sweeps over strong Eastern Conference opponents. However, a largely healthy 2010 Seattle Storm team is more than they've had to deal with so far this postseason. The Storm can throw defenders like Wright and Cash at Castro Marques and McCoughtry, with help coming from all angles when necessary, just like it has all season long in Brian Agler's remarkably effective defensive system. At the other end, Seattle has shown an ability all year to score enough points against whatever defense opponents can offer, and its precision and execution should get things done despite Atlanta's athleticism and length. If all else fails they'll throw the ball to Lauren Jackson and let her go to work, and if Atlanta sends double and triple-teams at her the Storm have consistently shown that they have players who can hit open shots. McCoughtry was remarkable against New York, but I don't think she'll draw as many whistles against Seattle's better defenders and I'm not convinced she'll have enough help if the Storm force her to look to her teammates. The Dream are good enough to take a game (or maybe even two) from the Storm, but Seattle only lost six games all year for very good reasons. On top of all that, they have a considerable edge in experience at this sort of level, and I still trust Agler to make the right coaching move far more than I do Meadors. As a neutral I'd love to see a Game 5, if only to see the spectacle that the Key Arena crowd would turn it into, but I don't honestly expect the Storm to need it. I had the Storm beating Indiana 3-1 in my preseason Finals pick; I had Seattle over New York 3-1 in my postseason predictions; so it seems only fair that I stick to my guns with most of the prediction, even if the contenders have turned out to be a little different.
Finals Prediction: Seattle 3-1
Seattle Storm (28-6) vs. Atlanta Dream (19-15)
Sun Sep 12: Atl @ Sea
Tue Sep 14: Atl @ Sea
Thu Sep 16: Sea @ Atl
Sun Sep 19: Sea @ Atl (if necessary)
Tue Sep 21: Atl @ Sea (if necessary)
Regular season series: Seattle won 2-0
Welcome to the main event, ladies and gentlemen. After four solid months of basketball, we're down to the final two contenders for the WNBA Championship. Best of five, for all the marbles. To my left, the Seattle Storm, the dominant regular-season team who looked like they'd be here all season long. Led by MVP Lauren Jackson and All-World point guard Sue Bird, they've been the bookmakers' favorites since May. To my right, the Atlanta Dream, who played great in May themselves, before producing barely .500 basketball the rest of the way. Since hitting the postseason they've been reborn, charging past Eastern Conference rivals without losing a game. Led by second-year phenom Angel McCoughtry, this is a rejuvenated Atlanta team, who enter the Finals as underdogs but without any doubt that they can compete. Can the young, upstart Dream upset a Storm team that have looked so strong all year? It's time to find out.
Let's look at the favorites first. Seattle has been so good all year long because they're smart, disciplined, balanced, work extremely hard, and because 'throw Lauren the ball' is a heck of a first option. If you've read my previews of earlier rounds or my column through the season, you've heard all the stats by now: second-best offensive team in the league in terms of points per possession; second-best defensive team in the same statistic; best rebounding team in the League; gave up the fewest points in the paint, the fewest points off turnovers, and the fewest fast-break points per game in the WNBA. This is a very, very good team. Beyond all those numbers, this is also a squad that simply knows how to win. They won 13 games in the regular season when they were trailing going into the fourth quarter - the most any other team managed was four. As they exhibited in completing the Western Conference Finals sweep over Phoenix last Sunday, the Storm don't ever quit, and when games are tight in the final seconds they have the talent and composure to close them out. You might outplay them for a quarter or even a half, but over 40 minutes they've found a way to come out on top, time and time again all year long.
Examining the Dream as a unit is more difficult, because this playoff team isn't quite the same as the one we've seen for much of the season. Head coach Marynell Meadors made a big decision going into their opening round against Washington, adding guards Coco Miller and Armintie Price to the starting lineup in place of point guard Shalee Lehning and center Erika de Souza. While they've often switched back to their more standard look during games, this smaller, quicker starting lineup has given the Dream the impetus they needed, helping them to two straight sweeps over Washington and New York. They're a team that likes to run, run, and keep on running. Having Miller and Price out there to start games has added athleticism and defensive pressure on the perimeter, which creates turnovers and helps them get out in transition. They've averaged nearly 18 fast-break points per game in the playoffs so far, more than anyone managed in the regular season, and when they get out like that it builds momentum and confidence that leads to dangerous scoring streaks. When they're rolling, the Dream can start to look like a juggernaut, because their length, pace and size makes them hard to stop. A central part of Seattle head coach Brian Agler's gameplan will simply be to slow them down.
Checking out the personnel matchups in this series, the Storm would seem to have an advantage in talent at the guard spots, although not necessarily in depth. Sue Bird is the best point guard in the game, running the offense with calculated precision and stepping up to take important shots when necessary, as miserable Mercury fans can attest. Alongside her is Tanisha Wright, who's developed into a solid ballhandler and useful complementary scorer, while also appearing on the WNBA All-Defensive First Team for the second year in a row. Wright is carrying a knee injury which hindered her mobility slightly in the Phoenix series, but she's tough enough to play through it without too much drop-off in her game. Off the bench, Svetlana Abrosimova has been an outstanding sixth woman for Seattle this year, providing 20 minutes per game of hustle, energy and offensive aggression to spell Bird and Wright. It's not the most athletic trio in the World, but all three are smart and tend to make the right play when called upon, and all three can make shots.
Over on Atlanta's side, the guard situation is a little more complicated. Having worked so well so far in the playoffs, expect Coco Miller and Armintie Price to start, but Shalee Lehning will come off the bench and Iziane Castro Marques will slide over to play plenty of minutes at the guard spots as well. Miller's had an exceptional postseason, especially considering her virtual invisibility throughout the regular season. She's hitting shots from all angles and playing aggressive defense against whichever matchup is placed in front of her. The real defensive force on the perimeter, however, has been Price, who was tasked with chasing around the likes of Lindsey Harding and Cappie Pondexter in the first two rounds. It may well be her job to try and pressure Sue Bird as much as possible in this series. Price's crazy athleticism makes her a threat to create turnovers and score on the break, but if the Storm force her into becoming a jumpshooter, she becomes an offensive liability. Lehning may have lost her starting role, but she's come off the bench in the playoffs and still been a useful piece of the puzzle. She's smart and controlled, and she knows when to push the tempo to keep Atlanta on the front foot. Castro Marques is Atlanta's wildcard. The Dream's second-highest scorer this season, she led the League by miles in fast-break points, and if you don't pick her up on the break or just off your own misses she'll be flying to the basket before you can blink. She consistently throws up her trademark funky-looking running shots from either side of the hoop, but they've been consistently going in all year. However, Izi's a born gunner, and she's been known to go decidedly cold but just keep firing away. Wright will probably be on her for much of the series, and if she can slow Izi down and stay in front of her, then Atlanta's offense loses one of its most dangerous weapons.
By the end of the month they may well be on the same roster for Team USA at the World Championships, but for the next week or two the small forwards in this series will play a central role in deciding the victor. Angel McCoughtry is Atlanta's leader, primary offensive option, and as she showed in scoring a playoff-record 42 points to close out New York on Tuesday night, a fearsome prospect to try and stop. While some were still questioning whether she had the killer instinct to close out a playoff series on her own, McCoughtry went off against New York and produced an individual performance that had spectators purring (as long as they weren't Liberty fans). The question is whether she can do it against a significantly tougher perimeter defense in Seattle. Angel got to the free-throw line a ridiculous 38 times in the two-game series against the Liberty, and although she's been consistently good at getting to the line all year, it's hard to see those numbers being anywhere near as high against Seattle's strong, rotating defence. As with Castro Marques, if you limit McCoughtry's fast-break opportunities and can stay in front of her enough to limit her free-throw opportunities, she becomes a jumpshooter. If she's just firing away, her chances of hurting the Storm decrease dramatically, because her jumper is still decidedly streaky. Her direct opposition in green, Swin Cash, isn't getting McCoughtry's press these days with Bird and Jackson alongside her, but she's had an outstanding season as a complement to her illustrious teammates. Cash will likely be the primary defender on McCoughtry, and her strength, length and mobility will trouble Angel more than the likes of Powell and Carson did for New York. Cash's offense has diversified this season thanks to drastically improved three-point shooting, which has made her a true threat both inside and out. McCoughtry likes to play the passing lanes, and if she spends too much time gambling or doubling down on Jackson, Cash is primed to hurt the Dream just like she did LA and Phoenix in previous rounds. Watch these two fight it out all series long, and if you're American be happy that neither will be playing against the US in the Czech Republic later this month.
Down in the paint could well be where this series is won and lost. Seattle was first and Atlanta third in the WNBA in rebounding percentage this season, at 54.5% and 53.6% respectively. They were first and second in offensive rebounding. The talented mathematicians among you will recognize that there won't be 108.1% of rebounds to go around in this series, so something's gotta give. The Dream get things done down low by being very, very long, and very, very big. It's not rocket science; when you're ginormous, you're probably going to grab a whole bunch of boards. Despite the smaller starting lineup they've been throwing out, they've still had two of Sancho Lyttle, Erika de Souza, Alison Bales and Yelena Leuchanka on the floor for the majority of their games, and that's a whole lot of beef. Bales and Leuchanka are the backups, usually providing only spot minutes but capable of changing shots defensively, taking up a lot of room and scoring reasonably efficiently if you lose track of them. De Souza has been a starter all season but hasn't complained about coming off the bench in the postseason, using the time to gauge the flow of the game and avoid the early foul trouble that sometimes plagues her. New York complained long and hard about the Atlanta bigs going over the back for rebounds in the Eastern Finals, and Erika was a primary culprit, but if the officials call this series a similar way the simple height and bulk of de Souza could hand Atlanta the advantage on the boards. She was hitting her baseline jumper against the Liberty as well, which makes her even more dangerous offensively. Lyttle is a different kind of player, with her long limbs and bouncy athleticism making her a defensive threat and a rebounding annoyance. The Dream will mix up their looks defensively against Jackson, including using the zone that worked so well against Washington, but it's likely to be Lyttle that will chase her around through much of the series. Sancho has the speed and the stamina to do it, and her improved offensive arsenal will make Jackson work defensively as well, but as always it'll be something of a damage limitation exercise.
Seattle is a different animal from the Dream down on the block, but no less dangerous. They may not have the pure size and length of Atlanta, but the presence of League MVP Lauren Jackson means that we may barely notice. LJ can score from anywhere, and will do so against whatever defense Atlanta throws at her. Seattle's precision offense and Jackson's talent will get her points down low even with the likes of de Souza and Lyttle patrolling, but if Atlanta tries to camp out and collapse down low, she'll pop out top and drain a few 3s as well. Making her work hard for her points is about all the Dream can hope for, because Seattle is too good to constantly send extra defenders and try to shut her down. LA did that in the first round and she got her usual 20 points per game anyway, while her teammates were left with wide open shots all around her. It's not worth it. Just to top things off, Jackson's a superb defender these days as well (I doubt she really cares, but making her second-team All-Defense this year was less than she deserved). The Storm lack height alongside LJ but they'll still combine to make things very difficult for the Dream down low. Her primary partners in crime this season have been Camille Little and Le'coe Willingham. Neither is much over six-feet tall (whatever the official numbers claim) but both use their bodies well defensively and for rebounding position, and both work extremely hard on the boards. Little and Jackson are also both quicker than most of Atlanta's bigs, which will be one of their main advantages in trying to compete with Atlanta's size. Typically you'd expect that to be the end of Seattle's rotation, cut down to their core seven for the playoffs. However, Atlanta's length and depth means we might see a little of Ashley Robinson, and maybe a little more of Jana Vesela. Robinson isn't much more than a big body who can take up space and play some defense, but Vesela has some range and offensive ability that she's flashed on several occasions this season. When Jackson needs a rest in this series Vesela may well see some time because even though she's not a true post, she's definitely long, and Little/Willingham would be a precariously small post lineup against Atlanta's giants.
It's always dangerous to put too much stock in what happened during the regular season when predicting the playoffs, especially considering the leap that the Dream have managed to take in the last couple of weeks, but Atlanta better hope that the leap's enough to overcome practically all the precedents. Seattle won both games between these two this year, and McCoughtry, Castro Marques and Lyttle went a combined 27-103 from the floor in those two games. That's 26% shooting from Atlanta's three best players. Unless Angel gets to the line about 40 times a game, expect a Storm sweep if those percentages recur. This is the problem Atlanta may have against the Storm: the opportunities to score that made them so effective against Washington and New York simply may not be there against Seattle's defense. The Storm slide and help each other so well defensively that it's hard to find gaps, and they work hard to get back in transition to prevent fast-break chances for their opponents. Seattle is also typically pretty good at keeping its turnover numbers down, which will limit Atlanta's opportunities to get out on the break. Bird and Wright makes smart, tight passes out on the perimeter and that cuts into the chances people like McCoughtry and Price have to jump passing lanes and create steals. If Seattle slows them down, Atlanta is left with its half-court sets, and things might get ugly. Their high-low game started to work again against New York after most teams had worked it out during the regular season, but that was against an undermanned, undersized Liberty post rotation. Expect Cash, Jackson and Little to seriously limit the effectiveness of the seal moves that have become de Souza's stock in trade. If those scoring chances aren't there for Erika and Sancho Lyttle, Atlanta's half-court offense comes down to Angel, Izi and the likes of Coco Miller creating their own shots. The first two rounds of the playoffs went pretty well, and Atlanta even shot nearly 40% from behind the three-point line after being below 29% from beyond the arc during the regular season. But that was when everything was flowing and their confidence was up. No one on Atlanta's perimeter is a proven consistent jump-shooting threat, especially from three-point range, so if Seattle's defense can force them into becoming a half-court team, the Dream are in trouble.
The other element that jumps out from the regular season is the Storm's home record. They were 17-0 in the regular season at Key Arena, 19-0 if you include the playoffs. The ticket sales for Game 1 are already well into five-digits (despite the game taking place on the NFL's opening Sunday), so expect some deafening support for the Storm from arguably the WNBA's most vociferous crowd. No team in WNBA history has ever gone undefeated at home throughout an entire season including the playoffs, but that certainly doesn't mean the Storm are destined to drop at least one in this series. It would just be another record for Seattle to break in this remarkable season. The home-court advantage for the Storm is enhanced even further due to Sesame Street Live occupying Philips Arena in Atlanta through middle of September. The Dream managed to negotiate their way into playing at Philips for Game 3, but if a Game 4 is necessary it'll be all the way out at the Gwinnett Center in Duluth. The crowd would obviously still be pro-Dream, but it wouldn't be the home arena the Dream players have been comfortable in all season. It's certainly not beyond the Dream to finally break the Storm's stranglehold at home - they did win games in both Washington and New York in the last two rounds, after all - but the confidence the Storm have at home is yet another thing in their favor. If we end up heading back to the Key for Game 5 on September 21, with a screaming sea of green baying for a full 40 minutes, do you think McCoughtry's going to get quite so many calls every time she barrels towards the basket?
Here's the good news, Dream fans: I predicted that you'd lose in both the last two rounds as well, so the line below this paragraph could easily be seen as just a kiss of death for the Storm. The Dream seem to have enjoyed their role as the unfancied underdogs so far in the playoffs, coming in as an underperforming fourth seed before surging through in consecutive sweeps over strong Eastern Conference opponents. However, a largely healthy 2010 Seattle Storm team is more than they've had to deal with so far this postseason. The Storm can throw defenders like Wright and Cash at Castro Marques and McCoughtry, with help coming from all angles when necessary, just like it has all season long in Brian Agler's remarkably effective defensive system. At the other end, Seattle has shown an ability all year to score enough points against whatever defense opponents can offer, and its precision and execution should get things done despite Atlanta's athleticism and length. If all else fails they'll throw the ball to Lauren Jackson and let her go to work, and if Atlanta sends double and triple-teams at her the Storm have consistently shown that they have players who can hit open shots. McCoughtry was remarkable against New York, but I don't think she'll draw as many whistles against Seattle's better defenders and I'm not convinced she'll have enough help if the Storm force her to look to her teammates. The Dream are good enough to take a game (or maybe even two) from the Storm, but Seattle only lost six games all year for very good reasons. On top of all that, they have a considerable edge in experience at this sort of level, and I still trust Agler to make the right coaching move far more than I do Meadors. As a neutral I'd love to see a Game 5, if only to see the spectacle that the Key Arena crowd would turn it into, but I don't honestly expect the Storm to need it. I had the Storm beating Indiana 3-1 in my preseason Finals pick; I had Seattle over New York 3-1 in my postseason predictions; so it seems only fair that I stick to my guns with most of the prediction, even if the contenders have turned out to be a little different.
Finals Prediction: Seattle 3-1
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LADY LUCK
Sunday's Best WNBA Bets
Atlanta Dream at Seattle Storm (-7.5, 165)
The 2010 WNBA Finals kicks off Sunday, going head-to-head with Week 1 of the NFL season. Why the all-women’s basketball league is fighting a losing battle in the TV ratings, the Seattle Storm are confident they have the edge to win where it counts – on the basketball court.
Seattle, which won the WNBA title in 2004, will be relying on its experienced veteran core against the Atlanta Dream, who have only been in the league for three seasons.
“The one intangible advantage we may have over the Dream is the championship experience on this team,” Storm point guard Sue Bird wrote in special column for USA Today. “We have five titles between us on our roster, and we know that once you get to the final round, it's a very mental game.”
Seattle defeated Atlanta in both regular season meetings this season, covering the spread in each matchup. Over the past three years, the Storm are 5-1 straight up and 4-2 ATS in their six all-time meetings.
“Many fans and writers have pointed out that we beat the Dream in both of our matchups this season, but we're not even thinking about that as a predictor of how this series will turn out,” said Bird.
Both Seattle and Atlanta are undefeated in the postseason, posting identical 4-0 ATS marks.
Pick: Seattle Storm -7.5
Sunday's Best WNBA Bets
Atlanta Dream at Seattle Storm (-7.5, 165)
The 2010 WNBA Finals kicks off Sunday, going head-to-head with Week 1 of the NFL season. Why the all-women’s basketball league is fighting a losing battle in the TV ratings, the Seattle Storm are confident they have the edge to win where it counts – on the basketball court.
Seattle, which won the WNBA title in 2004, will be relying on its experienced veteran core against the Atlanta Dream, who have only been in the league for three seasons.
“The one intangible advantage we may have over the Dream is the championship experience on this team,” Storm point guard Sue Bird wrote in special column for USA Today. “We have five titles between us on our roster, and we know that once you get to the final round, it's a very mental game.”
Seattle defeated Atlanta in both regular season meetings this season, covering the spread in each matchup. Over the past three years, the Storm are 5-1 straight up and 4-2 ATS in their six all-time meetings.
“Many fans and writers have pointed out that we beat the Dream in both of our matchups this season, but we're not even thinking about that as a predictor of how this series will turn out,” said Bird.
Both Seattle and Atlanta are undefeated in the postseason, posting identical 4-0 ATS marks.
Pick: Seattle Storm -7.5
CFL Betting Preview
Saskatchewan Roughriders (6-3) at Winnipeg Blue Bombers (2-7) Sunday, September 12th (1:00 EST)
Banjo Bowl Part-Two. The Saskatchewan Roughriders are heading to Winnipeg feeling good about last week's game against the Blue Bombers. Saskatchewan was able to salvage a 27-23 victory though they were outplayed by Winnipeg. In what is turning into a disappointing season, the Blue Bombers lost yet another game where they probably should have come away with a victory.
Winnipeg has not lived up to their own expectations this season. They have the same record as B.C. and Edmonton but haven't faced the same scrutiny as the other two teams. It's as if everyone outside of Manitoba hasn't even noticed that the Bombers haven't won many games this year. Which is probably a good thing. Winnipeg's number one quarterback Buck Pierce (New Mexico State) is hurt and won't get a chance to play again this week. All eyes will be on Steven Jyles (UL Monroe) to continue to improve and develop. To Jyles' credit, he has performed admirably considering this is the first year he has started a CFL game.
Winnipeg is built around their defense. Their defense will need to step up and shut down Saskatchewan's Darian Durant (North Carolina) and his Canadian Air Force receiving corps if they hope to win. The Bombers have the defensive talent to do it.
Saskatchewan has only one win this season on the road and it is never easy for the Riders to get a victory in Winnipeg. Expect a tough game. Look for Winnipeg to be fired up in front of a home town sell-out crowd.
Boxscore News Prediction: Look for Saskatchewan to continue to have problems on the road. Saskatchewan loses the grudge match and goes to 6 and 4 on the season. Saskatchewan 26 - Winnipeg 30.
Saskatchewan Roughriders (6-3) at Winnipeg Blue Bombers (2-7) Sunday, September 12th (1:00 EST)
Banjo Bowl Part-Two. The Saskatchewan Roughriders are heading to Winnipeg feeling good about last week's game against the Blue Bombers. Saskatchewan was able to salvage a 27-23 victory though they were outplayed by Winnipeg. In what is turning into a disappointing season, the Blue Bombers lost yet another game where they probably should have come away with a victory.
Winnipeg has not lived up to their own expectations this season. They have the same record as B.C. and Edmonton but haven't faced the same scrutiny as the other two teams. It's as if everyone outside of Manitoba hasn't even noticed that the Bombers haven't won many games this year. Which is probably a good thing. Winnipeg's number one quarterback Buck Pierce (New Mexico State) is hurt and won't get a chance to play again this week. All eyes will be on Steven Jyles (UL Monroe) to continue to improve and develop. To Jyles' credit, he has performed admirably considering this is the first year he has started a CFL game.
Winnipeg is built around their defense. Their defense will need to step up and shut down Saskatchewan's Darian Durant (North Carolina) and his Canadian Air Force receiving corps if they hope to win. The Bombers have the defensive talent to do it.
Saskatchewan has only one win this season on the road and it is never easy for the Riders to get a victory in Winnipeg. Expect a tough game. Look for Winnipeg to be fired up in front of a home town sell-out crowd.
Boxscore News Prediction: Look for Saskatchewan to continue to have problems on the road. Saskatchewan loses the grudge match and goes to 6 and 4 on the season. Saskatchewan 26 - Winnipeg 30.
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CANADIAN BACON
Sunday's Best CFL Bets
Saskatchewan Roughriders at Winnipeg Blue Bombers (+4, 56.5)
The Winnipeg Blue Bombers, last in the East, suffered another blow on Labour Day when their starting QB Buck Pierce fell to another serious injury in a 27-23 loss to these Roughriders. Backup QB Steven Jyles is now the one who will try to stop a five-game losing streak.
In four starts this season, Jyles completed almost 63 percent of his pass attempts, gained 1322 yards through the air, threw eight touchdown passes and was intercepted only twice. He has the second-best QB rating in the CFL (104.1) right behind Anthony Calvillo of the Alouettes (111.6).
Grey Cup finalists last year, the Saskatchewan Roughriders have proved to be an enigma so far in 2010, mainly because of a lack of consistency on offense. After scoring tons of points in their first two games of the regular season against the Alouettes and the Lions, the Riders have had ups and downs with an offense that featured the best and the worst from QB Darian Durant.
Despite losing key players like John Chick, Stevie Baggs, Rey Williams and Eddie Davis during the offseason, the Riders’ stopper unit has been as reliable as last year. But this defense is not totally healthy.
Safety James Patrick, who leads the CFL for interceptions with seven, missed practice this week because of a knee injury that will most likely prevent him from playing on Sunday. Linebacker Daniel Francis is also injured but expected to play against the Bombers.
Pick: Saskatchewan Roughriders
Sunday's Best CFL Bets
Saskatchewan Roughriders at Winnipeg Blue Bombers (+4, 56.5)
The Winnipeg Blue Bombers, last in the East, suffered another blow on Labour Day when their starting QB Buck Pierce fell to another serious injury in a 27-23 loss to these Roughriders. Backup QB Steven Jyles is now the one who will try to stop a five-game losing streak.
In four starts this season, Jyles completed almost 63 percent of his pass attempts, gained 1322 yards through the air, threw eight touchdown passes and was intercepted only twice. He has the second-best QB rating in the CFL (104.1) right behind Anthony Calvillo of the Alouettes (111.6).
Grey Cup finalists last year, the Saskatchewan Roughriders have proved to be an enigma so far in 2010, mainly because of a lack of consistency on offense. After scoring tons of points in their first two games of the regular season against the Alouettes and the Lions, the Riders have had ups and downs with an offense that featured the best and the worst from QB Darian Durant.
Despite losing key players like John Chick, Stevie Baggs, Rey Williams and Eddie Davis during the offseason, the Riders’ stopper unit has been as reliable as last year. But this defense is not totally healthy.
Safety James Patrick, who leads the CFL for interceptions with seven, missed practice this week because of a knee injury that will most likely prevent him from playing on Sunday. Linebacker Daniel Francis is also injured but expected to play against the Bombers.
Pick: Saskatchewan Roughriders
Bettors' Best Friend (BBF): Sunday's Wagering Tips
Weather To Watch
Carolina Panthers at New York Giants - 40 percent chance of showers. Winds light.
San Francisco 49ers at Seattle - 30 percent chance of scattered showers.
Green Bay Packers at Philadelphia Eagles - 30 percent chance of scattered showers.
Lines To Keep An Eye On
Arizona Cardinals at St. Louis Rams – total down to 39 from its open of 42.
Baltimore Ravens at New York Jets – total down to 35.5 from its open of 38.5.
Atlanta Falcons at Pittsburgh Steelers – Steelers opened as 1.5 favorites but now sit at +2. The total has dropped from 42 to 37.5.
Cincinnati Bengals at New England Patriots - Patriots opened at -6 but are now at -4.5.
Oakland Raiders at Tennessee Titans – Titans opened at -8 but are now at -6.
Who’s Hot
New York Giants are 2-9 against the spread (ATS) over their last 11 games overall.
Atlanta Falcons are 10-2 in their last 12 Week 1 games.
Indianapolis Colts are 7-1 ATS in their last eight road games.
Tennessee Titans are 6-2 ATS over their last eight Week 1 games.
Jacksonville Jaguars are 9-2 in their last 11 Week 1 games.
Seattle Seahawks are 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 home games.
Green Bay Packers are 7-1-1 ATS in their last nine games overall.
New York Jets are 5-2-1 ATS in their last eight Week 1 games.
Minnesota Twins are 37-15 in their last 52 games overall.
Detroit Tigers are 9-3 in their last 12 home games.
Philadelphia Phillies are 13-3 in their last 16 road games.
Chicago White Sox are 8-3 in their last 11 games overall.
Chicago Cubs are 7-2 in their last nine road games.
Colorado Rockies have won eight straight overall.
Atlanta Braves are 40-14 in their last 54 home games.
Who’s Not
Buffalo Bills are 3-10 in their last 13 home games.
Chicago Bears are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games overall.
Cleveland Browns are 1-9-1 ATS in their last 11 Week 1 games.
Cincinnati Bengals are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games overall.
St. Louis Rams are 1-8-1 ATS in their last 10 Week 1 games.
Washington Redskins are 3-11 ATS in their last 14 home games.
Pittsburgh Pirates are 8-43 in their last 51 road games.
Los Angeles Dodgers are 8-20 in their last 28 road games.
Seattle Mariners are 6-13 in their last 19 overall.
San Diego Padres are 3-12 over their last 15 overall.
Key Stat
141.2 - Aaron Rodgers' preseason passer rating for the Green Bay Packers.
Injury That Shouldn’t Be Overlooked
Beanie Wells, Arizona Cardinals. Second-year running back Beanie Wells isn’t expected to contribute more than a few plays, if he plays at all Sunday against the St. Louis Rams. Wells is officially listed as questionable.
Game Of The Day
Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans
Notable Quotable
"Obviously, you'd like for them to have had more reps than they've had, but I don't think it's a situation where we haven't gotten reps," Arizona Cardinals coach Whisenhunt said. "I guess we'll see how it plays out Sunday."
-Ken Whisenhunt on the chemistry between Larry Fitzgerald and quarterback Derek Anderson. Fitzgerald has practiced the past few days after missing most of the preseason with a knee injury.
Tips And Notes
Bill Parcells was “very disappointed” in Chad Henne’s development before resigning from the Miami Dolphins earlier this week. Henne completed less than 50 percent of his passes in preseason.
Albert Haynesworth will play for the Washington Redskins against the Dallas Cowboys, but is expected to be on the field primarily on passing downs.
Weather To Watch
Carolina Panthers at New York Giants - 40 percent chance of showers. Winds light.
San Francisco 49ers at Seattle - 30 percent chance of scattered showers.
Green Bay Packers at Philadelphia Eagles - 30 percent chance of scattered showers.
Lines To Keep An Eye On
Arizona Cardinals at St. Louis Rams – total down to 39 from its open of 42.
Baltimore Ravens at New York Jets – total down to 35.5 from its open of 38.5.
Atlanta Falcons at Pittsburgh Steelers – Steelers opened as 1.5 favorites but now sit at +2. The total has dropped from 42 to 37.5.
Cincinnati Bengals at New England Patriots - Patriots opened at -6 but are now at -4.5.
Oakland Raiders at Tennessee Titans – Titans opened at -8 but are now at -6.
Who’s Hot
New York Giants are 2-9 against the spread (ATS) over their last 11 games overall.
Atlanta Falcons are 10-2 in their last 12 Week 1 games.
Indianapolis Colts are 7-1 ATS in their last eight road games.
Tennessee Titans are 6-2 ATS over their last eight Week 1 games.
Jacksonville Jaguars are 9-2 in their last 11 Week 1 games.
Seattle Seahawks are 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 home games.
Green Bay Packers are 7-1-1 ATS in their last nine games overall.
New York Jets are 5-2-1 ATS in their last eight Week 1 games.
Minnesota Twins are 37-15 in their last 52 games overall.
Detroit Tigers are 9-3 in their last 12 home games.
Philadelphia Phillies are 13-3 in their last 16 road games.
Chicago White Sox are 8-3 in their last 11 games overall.
Chicago Cubs are 7-2 in their last nine road games.
Colorado Rockies have won eight straight overall.
Atlanta Braves are 40-14 in their last 54 home games.
Who’s Not
Buffalo Bills are 3-10 in their last 13 home games.
Chicago Bears are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games overall.
Cleveland Browns are 1-9-1 ATS in their last 11 Week 1 games.
Cincinnati Bengals are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games overall.
St. Louis Rams are 1-8-1 ATS in their last 10 Week 1 games.
Washington Redskins are 3-11 ATS in their last 14 home games.
Pittsburgh Pirates are 8-43 in their last 51 road games.
Los Angeles Dodgers are 8-20 in their last 28 road games.
Seattle Mariners are 6-13 in their last 19 overall.
San Diego Padres are 3-12 over their last 15 overall.
Key Stat
141.2 - Aaron Rodgers' preseason passer rating for the Green Bay Packers.
Injury That Shouldn’t Be Overlooked
Beanie Wells, Arizona Cardinals. Second-year running back Beanie Wells isn’t expected to contribute more than a few plays, if he plays at all Sunday against the St. Louis Rams. Wells is officially listed as questionable.
Game Of The Day
Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans
Notable Quotable
"Obviously, you'd like for them to have had more reps than they've had, but I don't think it's a situation where we haven't gotten reps," Arizona Cardinals coach Whisenhunt said. "I guess we'll see how it plays out Sunday."
-Ken Whisenhunt on the chemistry between Larry Fitzgerald and quarterback Derek Anderson. Fitzgerald has practiced the past few days after missing most of the preseason with a knee injury.
Tips And Notes
Bill Parcells was “very disappointed” in Chad Henne’s development before resigning from the Miami Dolphins earlier this week. Henne completed less than 50 percent of his passes in preseason.
Albert Haynesworth will play for the Washington Redskins against the Dallas Cowboys, but is expected to be on the field primarily on passing downs.
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