SPORTSWAGERS
MLB
Oakland @ L.A. ANGELS
L.A. ANGELS -120 over Oakland
(Risking 2.4 units - To Win: 2.00)
Cheap price on the Angels, as they have won the first two games of this series while the A’s continue to nosedive. In fact, the Halos have won five in a row and six of seven. They have outscored the opposition over their last five by a count of 24-6 and that’s after facing a slew of strong starters in Henderson Alvarez, Sonny Gray, Jon Lester and Jeff Samardzija. The Angels are a cheap price today because they’ll now face Scott Kazmir and his 14-6 record and 3.08 ERA. Thing is, Kazmir is regressing badly right now and appears to be running on fumes. Kazmir has already logged 158 innings this season. He threw that exact same number of innings last year. Prior to last season Kazmir hadn’t thrown more than 150 innings in a season since 2006. His strikeout rate has dropped dramatically over his past five games in which he’s struck out just 16 batters in 29 frames. Kazmir has been tagged for 33 hits in his last 27 innings and he’s been taken yard in three straight games. He comes in with an xERA of 4.51 over his last five starts in which his actual ERA was 6.28. Everything is trending wrong for Kazmir. His WHIP is 1.53 over his past six starts, his groundball rate is down, his strikeouts are down and his walk rate is up over that same stretch. In his last start, Kazmir walked two and struck out one. He’s now pitching under a lot more pressure too because the A’s are losing daily and their Wild Card lead isn’t so comfortable anymore.
Since August 10, Oakland has lost 14 of 19 games. In the first two games of this series they have failed to score even one run. In 18 innings here over the past two days, Oakland has 7 hits. Over their last 15 games, the A’s are batting .192 and will now face Matt Shoemaker. Shoemaker put up a mediocre 4.15 ERA and 1.33 WHIP before the All-Star break, but his base skills gave much more reason for optimism. He has started to cash in on that upside in the second half: 2.43 ERA, 0.84 WHIP, 8.8 K’s/9, 1 BB/9 and a 46% groundball rate. His excellent command is supported by an 11% swing and miss rate and 63% first pitch strike rate. In fact, Shoemaker’s elite command against both LH and RH bats are due in large part to having one of the best changeups in the game (23% swing and miss rate). Shoemaker figures to have another strong game here against an A’s team that is seeing golf balls.
Washington @ SEATTLE
Washington +135 over SEATTLE
(Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.70)
Hisashi Iwakuma is coming off a 67-pitch hiccup at Fenway (2.1 IP, 6H, 5R on Aug. 24) but the 33-year-old right-hander has been ultra-consistent this season and over the last month owns an xERA (2.94) very near his season ERA (2.83). Prior to Tuesday’s misstep, Iwakuma hadn’t registered a rough outing since June 25. Iwakuma is a solid starter and certainly could pitch well here. However, this one has little to do with fading Iwakuma. Washington offers up too much value here as a dog that is 19-9 in August and just keeps on winning.
The Mariners are struggling with four losses in their past five games including the first two games of this set. Over its past three games, Seattle has been outscored 23-8 and will now face a starter in Tanner Roarke that has thrived on the road the entire season. Roark went 7-1 last year as a starter for the Nats and this year he’s won 12 and lost 8. That’s 19-9 overall since the start of last year with a road mark of 10-4 over that same span with an oppBA of .229. Remarkably, RH bats couldn't even manage ONE hit against Roarke’s slider the 141 times he threw it last year and he’s throwing it even more this year. Roarke pitches deep into games. He rarely goes less than seven innings. The Nats have won seven times in the last nine games he’s started and over that span, Roarke has allowed one run or less in six of those nine games. The bottom line is when he pitches the Nats usually win.