DAVE MALINSKY
4* SAN DIEGO/MILWAUKEE OVER
Runs have come early and often in this series so far – 27 all told, with no starting pitcher managing to even finish five innings, and three of the four starters failing to last four. That means some overworked bullpens need some time off this afternoon, but we are not convinced that Jon Garland or Manny Parra can supply that for them.
Garland helps to bring us a favorable price point because of the appearance of decent current form, but take a closer look – that 0.90 for his last three starts comes despite the fact that he issued 13 W’s on 20 IP, which means that he has been more lucky that good in this span, with 19 of 20 base-runners failing to score. That changes here against a lineup that brings good wood throughout, making it tough for a “pitch to contact” guy to survive, and as always we must note that impact that Petco Park has on Garland’s numbers, with a 5-6/4.09 on the road that is a better indicator of who he really is.
Meanwhile Parra is another of those lefties that are so fortunate they were born the way that they were – he has worked to a 5.94 over 242.1 innings the past two seasons, which would get a right-handed starter a release notice, and there just is not any sign of him developing the command to be a full-time starter at this level. If anything, the fact that 17 unearned runs do not show on those charts from the last two seasons makes his time on the tight rope even more precarious. In terms of aiding a tired bullpen Parra is no help at all, never going beyond the 6th inning, and only getting that far three times in 15 starts, and over his last two outings we have charted PPI’s of 19.9 and 20.0, with 18 base-runners over just 10.1 frames. Like Garland, he has rolled the dice well recently, with 15 of the 16 that did not hit a HR in those two games being stranded, but that only helps to bring us this favorable price point.
4* SAN DIEGO/MILWAUKEE OVER
Runs have come early and often in this series so far – 27 all told, with no starting pitcher managing to even finish five innings, and three of the four starters failing to last four. That means some overworked bullpens need some time off this afternoon, but we are not convinced that Jon Garland or Manny Parra can supply that for them.
Garland helps to bring us a favorable price point because of the appearance of decent current form, but take a closer look – that 0.90 for his last three starts comes despite the fact that he issued 13 W’s on 20 IP, which means that he has been more lucky that good in this span, with 19 of 20 base-runners failing to score. That changes here against a lineup that brings good wood throughout, making it tough for a “pitch to contact” guy to survive, and as always we must note that impact that Petco Park has on Garland’s numbers, with a 5-6/4.09 on the road that is a better indicator of who he really is.
Meanwhile Parra is another of those lefties that are so fortunate they were born the way that they were – he has worked to a 5.94 over 242.1 innings the past two seasons, which would get a right-handed starter a release notice, and there just is not any sign of him developing the command to be a full-time starter at this level. If anything, the fact that 17 unearned runs do not show on those charts from the last two seasons makes his time on the tight rope even more precarious. In terms of aiding a tired bullpen Parra is no help at all, never going beyond the 6th inning, and only getting that far three times in 15 starts, and over his last two outings we have charted PPI’s of 19.9 and 20.0, with 18 base-runners over just 10.1 frames. Like Garland, he has rolled the dice well recently, with 15 of the 16 that did not hit a HR in those two games being stranded, but that only helps to bring us this favorable price point.
NELLY
Vikings at 49ers
Pick: Vikings +3
Brett Favre delivered a magical performance against the 49ers last season in the regular season as the Vikings delivered a win in the final seconds. While San Francisco may look to avenge that game this could be a tough match-up following a strong preseason debut with a convincing win over the Colts. QB Alex Smith struggled in the game with a 3-for-9 performance and an interception. While Favre’s return to Minnesota will grab the headlines the 49ers also made a marquee addition with former Eagles RB Brain Westbrook signing this week. With Glen Coffee’s surprise retirement the 49ers needed more depth at RB and Westbrook will compete for time with Anthony Dixon, who had a strong effort last week, behind starter Frank Gore. The 49ers are expecting to give a lot of snaps to second-year QB Nate Davis from Ball State. Davis has mainly been a disappointment since being a 5th round pick and the plan is to give him some more meaningful snaps against higher level players early in the game. David Carr played well last week to entrench himself in the back-up role to Smith so this game could be given almost entirely to Davis. With two rookies on the offensive line the 49ers could struggle the entire game against arguably the best defensive line in football, as even the back-ups wreaked havoc last week against the Rams. The two biggest threats in the passing game will be on the bench as well as Vernon Davis and Michael Crabtree are unlikely to play with minor injuries. Favre will obviously play minimally but his return should provide a boost to the team overall and Minnesota is now incredibly deep at QB. Tavaris Jackson and Sage Rosenfels both have starting experience and could start for several other teams in the league. Jackson did not play significantly last week as Rosenfels put on a show with 310 yards. Rumors have Minnesota possibly showing off Rosenfels this preseason as trade bait as he is getting paid like a starter and a number of teams could use a more reliable back-up option. Minnesota will face a 3-4 defense for the first time this summer which can always be an adjustment but the offensive edge should still side with the Vikings. San Francisco’s defense picked up four interceptions last week and the field position edge was evident throughout the game and was a big factor in the blowout margin. Minnesota has taken the preseason seriously in recent years and on the road this will still be an opportunity for the Vikings to pick up a win and build positive momentum.
Vikings at 49ers
Pick: Vikings +3
Brett Favre delivered a magical performance against the 49ers last season in the regular season as the Vikings delivered a win in the final seconds. While San Francisco may look to avenge that game this could be a tough match-up following a strong preseason debut with a convincing win over the Colts. QB Alex Smith struggled in the game with a 3-for-9 performance and an interception. While Favre’s return to Minnesota will grab the headlines the 49ers also made a marquee addition with former Eagles RB Brain Westbrook signing this week. With Glen Coffee’s surprise retirement the 49ers needed more depth at RB and Westbrook will compete for time with Anthony Dixon, who had a strong effort last week, behind starter Frank Gore. The 49ers are expecting to give a lot of snaps to second-year QB Nate Davis from Ball State. Davis has mainly been a disappointment since being a 5th round pick and the plan is to give him some more meaningful snaps against higher level players early in the game. David Carr played well last week to entrench himself in the back-up role to Smith so this game could be given almost entirely to Davis. With two rookies on the offensive line the 49ers could struggle the entire game against arguably the best defensive line in football, as even the back-ups wreaked havoc last week against the Rams. The two biggest threats in the passing game will be on the bench as well as Vernon Davis and Michael Crabtree are unlikely to play with minor injuries. Favre will obviously play minimally but his return should provide a boost to the team overall and Minnesota is now incredibly deep at QB. Tavaris Jackson and Sage Rosenfels both have starting experience and could start for several other teams in the league. Jackson did not play significantly last week as Rosenfels put on a show with 310 yards. Rumors have Minnesota possibly showing off Rosenfels this preseason as trade bait as he is getting paid like a starter and a number of teams could use a more reliable back-up option. Minnesota will face a 3-4 defense for the first time this summer which can always be an adjustment but the offensive edge should still side with the Vikings. San Francisco’s defense picked up four interceptions last week and the field position edge was evident throughout the game and was a big factor in the blowout margin. Minnesota has taken the preseason seriously in recent years and on the road this will still be an opportunity for the Vikings to pick up a win and build positive momentum.
BOB WINGERTER'S
The Chicago Cubs held on for a rare win as they knotted their weekend series with the Braves on Saturday.
Tom Gorzelanny allowed seven hits and just a run while striking out nine in seven innings of work to get his seventh win of the year as Andrew Cashner made it a little too close for comfort before Carlos Marmol closed out the Braves in the ninth inning for his 22nd save. Aramis Ramirez had three hits while Kosuke Fukudome and Tyler Colvin had two hits each. The win was just the third in the last 10 games for Chicago as they are in fifth place in the National League Central, 21 games out. For Sunday's game the Cubs start Randy Wells who has lost his last four decisions. For the season Wells has allowed 162 hits and 73 earned runs while striking out 115 in 148 innings of work. The Atlanta Braves fought back on Saturday but came up just short. Tommy Hanson didn't have a very good outing as usually he has been the victim of absolutely no run support, this time he just wasn't very effective. Hanson allowed seven hits and five runs in five innings of work to take his ninth loss of the season. Jason Heyward and Alex Gonzalez both had two hits to lead the offense for Atlanta. The loss didn't hurt the Braves as second place Philadelphia also lost so their lead stands at two and a half games in the National League East. For Sunday's game Atlanta starts Mike Minor who starts for the third time in his Major League career. In his prior two starts Minor has allowed 10 hits and five earned runs while striking out 10 in 12 innings of work. Chicago is 7-20 in their last 27 games overall, 4-13 in their last 17 against a right-handed starter, 1-9 in their last 10 home games against a team with a winning record, and 2-11 in their last 13 home games. Atlanta is 5-2 in their last seven against a team with a losing record, 5-2 in their last seven overall, 19-8 in their last 27 against the National League Central, and 12-6 in their last 18 road games against a team with a losing home record. Atlanta has won five of the last seven meetings of these two. TAKE ATLANTA MINUS HERE.
The Chicago Cubs held on for a rare win as they knotted their weekend series with the Braves on Saturday.
Tom Gorzelanny allowed seven hits and just a run while striking out nine in seven innings of work to get his seventh win of the year as Andrew Cashner made it a little too close for comfort before Carlos Marmol closed out the Braves in the ninth inning for his 22nd save. Aramis Ramirez had three hits while Kosuke Fukudome and Tyler Colvin had two hits each. The win was just the third in the last 10 games for Chicago as they are in fifth place in the National League Central, 21 games out. For Sunday's game the Cubs start Randy Wells who has lost his last four decisions. For the season Wells has allowed 162 hits and 73 earned runs while striking out 115 in 148 innings of work. The Atlanta Braves fought back on Saturday but came up just short. Tommy Hanson didn't have a very good outing as usually he has been the victim of absolutely no run support, this time he just wasn't very effective. Hanson allowed seven hits and five runs in five innings of work to take his ninth loss of the season. Jason Heyward and Alex Gonzalez both had two hits to lead the offense for Atlanta. The loss didn't hurt the Braves as second place Philadelphia also lost so their lead stands at two and a half games in the National League East. For Sunday's game Atlanta starts Mike Minor who starts for the third time in his Major League career. In his prior two starts Minor has allowed 10 hits and five earned runs while striking out 10 in 12 innings of work. Chicago is 7-20 in their last 27 games overall, 4-13 in their last 17 against a right-handed starter, 1-9 in their last 10 home games against a team with a winning record, and 2-11 in their last 13 home games. Atlanta is 5-2 in their last seven against a team with a losing record, 5-2 in their last seven overall, 19-8 in their last 27 against the National League Central, and 12-6 in their last 18 road games against a team with a losing home record. Atlanta has won five of the last seven meetings of these two. TAKE ATLANTA MINUS HERE.
Bob Balfe
Oakland Athletics +117
Dallas Braden has been on a good roll this year and the A's usually pitch very well at home. The A's took the first two in this series and, if not for a big 8th inning for Tampa, would be going for the sweep today. Look for Oakland to finish the series on a positive note. Take the A's.
49ers/Vikings Under 34.5
The 49ers looked sloppy to start the preseason last week. Alex Smith threw a INT early on and the offensive line allowed a few too many sacks. This team is not very deep at running the ball either. The Vikings will start Brett Favre tonight, but expect to only see him for a few minutes. The 49ers have a great rush defense which will be very important because this Viking team has 5 quality backs. Both teams have good, solid defenses and are good against the run. Look for a low-scoring game. Take the Under.
Oakland Athletics +117
Dallas Braden has been on a good roll this year and the A's usually pitch very well at home. The A's took the first two in this series and, if not for a big 8th inning for Tampa, would be going for the sweep today. Look for Oakland to finish the series on a positive note. Take the A's.
49ers/Vikings Under 34.5
The 49ers looked sloppy to start the preseason last week. Alex Smith threw a INT early on and the offensive line allowed a few too many sacks. This team is not very deep at running the ball either. The Vikings will start Brett Favre tonight, but expect to only see him for a few minutes. The 49ers have a great rush defense which will be very important because this Viking team has 5 quality backs. Both teams have good, solid defenses and are good against the run. Look for a low-scoring game. Take the Under.
STATBETTING Aug 22 164-180 -18.60 (4-3)
MLB 08/22 Washington Nationals at Philadelphia Phillies pick: under pts: 8.5 2 units
MLB 08/22 Chicago White Sox at Kansas City Royals pick: over pts: 7.5 2 units
MLB 08/22 Cleveland Indians at Detroit Tigers pick: Detroit Tigers pts: -1.5 (+110) 2 units
NFL 08/22 Minnesota Vikings at San Francisco 49ers pick: San Francisco 49ers pts: -2.5 1 units
MLB 08/22 Washington Nationals at Philadelphia Phillies pick: under pts: 8.5 2 units
MLB 08/22 Chicago White Sox at Kansas City Royals pick: over pts: 7.5 2 units
MLB 08/22 Cleveland Indians at Detroit Tigers pick: Detroit Tigers pts: -1.5 (+110) 2 units
NFL 08/22 Minnesota Vikings at San Francisco 49ers pick: San Francisco 49ers pts: -2.5 1 units
