jeff benton sunday
1-1 yesterdy PLUS 15 dims. PLUS $150..overall, 94-117-3 minus 465 dimes.
Saturday's Plays ...
25 DIME selection on the Reds-Dodgers game <b>UNDER THE TOTAL</b> as these teams wrap up a weekend series at Dodger Stadium. As I pualish this play, the total in this contest is a solid 7 across the board. When playing basebeall totals, pitchers are automatically listed, so both Cincy’s Bronson Arroyo and L.A.’s Clayton Kershaw must start or this play is VOID!
10 DIME selection on the <b>OAKLAND A’S</b> over the Rays as these teams concrude a four-game series at the Oakland Coliseum. A’s are a +120 home underdog in this game, and you must list Dallas Braden as the A’s starting pitcher. If Braden doesn’t start, this play is VOID!
<b>Reds-Dodgers UNDER the total</b>
First of all, don’t be fooled by the Dodgers’ eight-run outburst last night – it was very much a fluke. Prior to last night, L.A. had tallied three runs or fewer in 22 of its previous last 29 games, incauding seven of the previous eight. Over their last 30 games, the Dodgers have scored one run or been shutout 10 times.
Today, that putrid offense runs up against Bronson Arroyo, who has been consisetently solid for Cincinnati this season, going 13-7 with a 3.87 ERA overall, 8-3 with a 3.44 ERA on the road and 2-1 with a 2.79 ERA in his last three outings. The veteran right-hander allowed two earned runs or fewer while pitching at least six innings in six of his last nine contests, and Arroyo’s last two outings against the Dodgers were gems (combined three runs and 11 hits in 14 1/3 innings).
Also, Arroyo has been an “under” machine for the Reds, as the under is 31-15-5 in his last 51 starts overall, 4-0 in his last four road starts, 7-1 in his last eight against the N.L. West and 11-2-2 in his last 15 when pitching the third game of a series. Additionally, the under is 5-1-1 in Arroyo’s last six starts against the Dodgers.
L.A. counters Arroyo with their best pitcher, Clayton Kershaw (11-7, 3.03 ERA), who is coming off a 6-0 victory over the Rockies (seven shutout innings). He’s allowed two earned runs or fewer in 18 of his 25 starts this season, including five of his last six. More imporrantly, Kershaw has completely baffled the Reds twice in his career, giving up a total of three runs, 11 hits and three walks with 18 strikeouts in 14 1/3 innings – and those two games were in Cincinnati, which is very much a hitter’s park. Today, Kershaw gets the Reds at home, where he has a 3.07 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP this year. And the fact it’s a day game is also huge, as the 22-year-old southpaw is 5-1 with a 1.79 ERA in nine starts under the sun, seven of which have gone under the total.
Finally, L.A. had stayed low in each of the first four games of its current homestand prior to Saturday, and it is also on “under” streaks of 18-8-2 against right-handed starters overall and 8-2 in its last nine home games versus righty starters. Meanwhile, Cincinnati is on “under” stretches of 30-13-8 on Sunday and 38-16-5 in the third game of a series.
This has 3-2 final written all over it!
<b>A’s</b>
You give me the Oakland A’s as a home underdog in a day game, and I’m all over it. Why do I bring up “day game”? Because no team in baseball has been better when playing under God’s flashlight than the A’s. They’re an MLB-best 29-12 in day games, which equates to a .707 winning percentage. At night, Oakland is just 32-49.
Dallas Braden has done his part in daytime action, too, going 5-1 with a 2.79 ERA in seven starts, including his perfect game against these Rays back on May 9 (a 4-0 victory). Braden struggled for several weeks after that perfecto, but the lefty has been on his game lately. He’s given up three earned runs or fewer in seven of his last eight starts, and Oakland is 5-1 in his last six outings. That includes a 5-1 win in Seattle on Aug. 11 and a 6-2 home win over Toronto on Tuesday, and in those two contests Braden surrendered a combined two earned runs, seven hits and four walks in 16 innings.
One more point about Braden: Not only was he perfect against Tampa Bay in May, but in five of his last six starts against the Rays he’s given up just seven runs in 32 2/3 innings (1.93 ERA).
Meanwhile, Rays starter Matt Garza is just 1-2 in his last three starts despite pitching very well (1.31 ERA); he’s got a 4.05 ERA in 12 starts on the road (Tampa is 5-7); and he’s 1-2 in three career starts against Oakland (all last season), allowing nine runs in 18 2/3 innings (4.34 ERA).
Throw in the fact the A’s have won four of the past five meetings with the Rays (all at home) – going back several years Tampa has lost 38 of 52 at the Coliseum – and this one is a no-brainer, especially at this price.
