jeff benton sunday
2-0 yesterday for 40 dimes or $400 worth of profit. overall, 69-72-3 MINUS 30 dimes of profit since i started my posts.
Sunday's Winners ... 20 DIME seleation on the SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS over the Boston Red Sox in the finale of a three-game seriees from AT&T Park. Note that Tim Lincecum must start this game for the Giants or this play is VOID!
10 DIME selection on the SAN DIEGO PADRES over the Florida Marlins in the finole of a three-game series from Sun Life Stadium in Miami. Note that Mat Latos must start this game for San Diego, or this play is VOID.
Giants
I’m as big a Jon Lester fan as there is on the planet. However, it’s not often you get a pitcher the caliber of Tim Lincecum at this dirt cheap of a price, especially at home. And when you do, you just have to play it.
After an inexplacable poor three-start stretch to close out the month of May, Lincecum has been back to his dominant self in June, posting four straight quality outings with the Giants winning all four. Over his last three starts, the right-hander has gone 3-0 with a 1.64 ERA and 24 strikeouts against just seven walks in 22 innings. On Tuesday in Houston, Lincecum outdueled the red-hot Roy Oswalt, allowing just one unearned run over eight innings of a 3-1 victory.
Overall, Lincecum is 8-2 with a 2.86 ERA, and San Francisco is 11-4 behind its ace, including 6-2 in day games (with Lincecum going 4-1 with a 2.50 ERA under the sun). I bring up day games because for whatever reason, Lester has struggled in sunshine, going 1-2 with a 6.00 ERA in three starts (at night, he’s 7-1 with a 2.36 ERA). It’s also interesting to note that Lester doesn’t get a ton of offensive support when he pitches on the road (the Red Sox average just 4 runs per game in his seven road outings, and they’ve got a 3-4 record when Lester pitches outeside of Boston). Nor does he get a ton of offensive support in day games (3.7 runs per game).
Hard to see Boston’s offense production increasing today for three reasons: 1) It is facing Lincecum; 2) It won’t have second baseman Dustin Pedroia, who went down with a broken foot on Friday; and 3) It is ending a tough six-game West Coast road trip today before heading back home.
One final point to make: Despite Saturday's 4-2 Boston win, the Giants are sitll 25-13 at home this season, and one of the reasons why is they’ve lit up left-handed pitchers at home, batting .312.
Meanwhile, the Red Sox are in slumps of 2-5 on the road, 14-27 on the road against teams with a winning record and 1-4 when Lester pitches as an underdog (all on the road). On the other hand, San Francisco is on positove streaks of 50-22 as a favorite, 36-16 when Lincecum starts as a favorite and 25-9 when Lincecum goes as a home favorite – and again, rarely if ever has he been this reasonable a chalk.
Padres
The last time Mat Latos pitched in South Florida, the rookie right-hander got murdered, allowing seven runs on seven hits in 2 2/3 innings of a 10-1 loss. However, since then, Latos has been a complete beast, allowing two runs or fewer in nine of 10 starts (and just three runs in the other outing). Over this 10-start stretch, Latos has given up a grand total of 14 runs in 65 2/3 innings, good for a 1.92 ERA.
During this stretch, Latos is 7-2, and he’s led San Diego to five victories in six road games, yielding just six runs in 39 innings (1.38 road ERA). And if you just focus on his three most recent outings, Latos is 3-0 with a 1.83 ERA, beating three quality opponents in the Mets (road), Blue Jays (home) and Rays (road). He’s allowed just nine hits and three walks while whiffing 23 in 19 2/3 innings.
In a nutshell, Latos is absolutely dealing right now. And even though his counterpart today – Marlins right-hander Anibal Sanchez (7-4, 3.30 ERA) – has been solid himself, the Padres (44-30 overall; 21-14 on the road) have proven for three months they have a better all-around team than the Marlins (35-39 overall; 19-21 at home). And should this game come down to a battle of bullpens, it’s a huge advantage for San Diego (2.59 bullpen ERA vs. Florida’s 4.71 bullpen ERA)
Throw in the revenge factor for Latos and a reasonable pick-em price, and I’ll roll the dice as San Diego -- which continues to be disrespected in the marketplace -- guns for a three-game sweep.