STATSYSTEMS SPORTS MLB REPORT
SUNDAY, JUNE 22nd 2014
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
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***** Sunday, 6/22/14 MLB Information *****
(ALL RESULTS VS. ML) - Against The Money-Line - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Each and every day during the 2014 Major League Baseball season we will analyze all of your daily baseball action, featuring on hot and cold pitchers, hot and cold teams, over/unders and home plate umpire trends. We will also highlight some of our Highly-Rated (Situational & Match-up) Power Trends, along with some of our Situational Analysis (Betting Systems) that pertain to some of that days match-ups.
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MLB Betting News and Notes - Week #12
•Visiting Mounds Have Been Kind To Keuchel: Dallas Keuchel has become the ace of the Houston Astros staff and he has been able to elevate the team on the road. Through Keuchel's seven road starts this season, the Astros are 6-1. The left-hander has only allowed an average of 1.5 runs per game on the road this season. Interestingly enough though, the under has only hit on two of those outings. The Astros and Keuchel will be in Tampa Bay Sunday.
•Dickey's Road Record Needs To Be Scene To Be Believed: The Toronto Blue Jays will be sending R.A. Dickey to the mound at the Great American Ball Park Sunday. The Jays should be weary as Dickey is led the club to a 1-5 record on the road this season. Though Dickey has been giving up a solid five hits per game on the road, he has been giving up almost four runs per game.
•Danks Horrendously Poor Against Twins: The Chicago White Sox could possibly be sending the worst pitcher to the mound when they play the Minnesota Twins Sunday. John Danks has steered the White Sox to s 3-13 record in his last 16 starts against the Twins, including seven straight loses. The left-hander has given up an average of just over seven hits per game and has only three times allowed less than six hits. Danks has also given up an average of four runs to the Twins and have only allowed less than three runs twice.
•Pirates OF Marte Out Until Monday: Pittsburgh Pirates outfielder Startling Marte is dealing with a family matter in the Dominican Republic and will be out until Monday, according to the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review. Jose Tabata is starting in left field Saturday against the Chicago Cubs in place of Marte. Marte is batting .258 with five home runs, 26 RBIs, 34 runs scored and 17 steals this season. He batted .280 in 2013.
•Giants Calling Up 2B Panik: The San Francisco Giants called up second baseman Joe Panik from Triple-A Fresno on Saturday, according to the San Jose Mercury News. The club needs to make two roster moves to activate him. They have to add Panik to the 40-man roster and remove a player from the 25-man roster. Panik, 23, was the Giants' first-round draft pick in 2011. He is batting .321 with five home runs, 14 doubles and 50 runs in 74 games with Fresno. Second base has been a weak position, offensively, for the Giants this year. Brandon Hicks has eight home runs but is batting .172. Joaquin Arias is batting just .183 with only singles. Ehire Adrianza is batting only .208. Marco Scutaro, who was projected as the starter before spring training, has been out with a back injury all season and is not expected to be ready for full-time action this year.
•Sabathia, Taking Next Step, Heads South: The New York Yankees are sending CC Sabathia to Tampa, and Sabathia couldn't be happier. Sabathia is set to leave town Sunday, but only because he's ready for the next stage of work as he tries to come back from the right knee injury that has sidelined him since early May. He threw another bullpen session Saturday at Yankee Stadium, is scheduled to face hitters Tuesday, and hopes to throw in some sort of game next weekend. The Yankees still don't expect Sabathia back in the major leagues for quite a while -- general manager Brian Cashman has said August -- but the 33-year-old left-hander seems to be getting more encouraged by the day.
"I'm trying to go as fast as possible," Sabathia said. "Hopefully it's not five starts [in the minors]. I feel good. I'm optimistic." Sabathia is wearing a brace to stabilize the knee, and said the results so far have been good. But he also knows that there are bigger tests ahead. "I got after it a little [in Saturday's bullpen session]," he said. "This is the time to test it. I will in Tampa."
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Betting Notes - Saturday
National League
•Mets-Marlins - 1:10 PM
--Niese is 0-1, 3.15 in his last five starts.
--DeSclafani is 1-1, 5.60 in three starts for Miami.
--Mets lost nine of their last twelve road games, but won three of last four games overall.
--Marlins lost ten of their last fifteen home games.
--Under is 8-2-1 in New York's last eleven games.
•Braves-Nationals - 1:35 PM
--Santana is 1-4, 6.59 in his last seven starts.
--Roark is 3-0, 1.42 in his last three starts.
--Braves are 4-5 in their last nine road games.
--Washington won six of its last eight home games, but is 8-20 in its last 28 games against Atlanta. .
--Over is 7-3-2 in last twelve Santana starts.
•Phillies-Cardinals - 2:15 PM
--Kendrick is 2-0, 2.77 in his last couple starts.
--Martinez allowed one run in four IP (59 PT) in his first '14 start.
--Philly won nine of its last twelve games.
--Cardinals lost three of their last four games.
--Under is 11-2-1 in last fourteen Cardinal games.
•Pirates- Cubs - 2:20 PM
--Cumpton is 2-0, 4.41 in his last three starts; Pirates scored 24 runs.
--Hammel is 1-1, 2.88 in his last four starts.
--Pirates lost four of their last six games.
--Cubs won nine of their last twelve home games.
--Five of last seven games at Wrigley Field went over total.
•Brewers-Rockies - 4:10 PM
--Lohse is 1-1, 6.16 in his last three starts.
--Matzek is 1-1, 3.75 in his first two MLB starts.
--Milwaukee won nine of its last eleven road games.
--Rockies lost ten of their last thirteen home games.
--Over is 8-1-2 in last eleven Colorado games.
•Giants-Arizona - 4:10 PM
--Bumgarner is 3-1, 2.00 in his last five starts.
--Bolsinger is 0-2, 6.06 in his last three starts.
--Giants lost nine of their last eleven games.
--Arizona lost eight of its last eleven games.
--Under is 9-4 in Arizona's last thirteen home games.
•Dodgers-Padres - 4:10 PM
--Ryu is 5-1, 3.38 in his last six starts.
--Stults is 0-6, 7.07 in his last seven starts.
--Dodgers won six of their last eight games.
--San Diego won four of its last six home games.
--Seven of last eight San Diego games stayed under the total.
American League
•Orioles-Yankees - 2:05 PM
--Tillman has a 12.56 RA in his last four road starts.
--Tanaka is 5-0, 1.51 in his last five starts.
--Orioles won seven of their last ten road games.
--Yankees won five of its last six home games.
--Six of last seven Tanaka starts stayed under the total.
•Tigers-Indians - 1:05 PM
--Scherzer is 2-2, 6.86 in his last six starts.
--Tomlin is 1-4, 6.06 in his last six starts.
--Tigers won their last three games.
--Cleveland won 11 of its last 14 home games.
--13 of last 18 Cleveland home games went over total.
•Astros-Rays - 1:40 PM
--Keuchel is 6-2, 1.97 in his last eight starts.
--Bedard is 1-4, 7.07 in his last six starts.
--Astros lost six of their last eight games.
--Tampa Bay is 6-4 in its last ten games.
--Six of last eight Keuchel starts stayed under total.
•Mariners-Royals - 2:10 PM
--Elias is 3-1, 3.67 in his last four starts.
--Ventura is 3-0, 2.70 in his last three starts.
--Mariners won five of their last seven games.
--Kansas City lost its last three games.
--12 of Seattle's last 14 games stayed under the total.
•White Sox-Twins - 2:10 PM
--Danks is 3-0, 2.14 in his last three starts.
--Hughes is 7-2, 2.39 in his last eleven starts.
--White Sox lost eight of their last ten road games.
--Minnesota won its last three games.
--Over is 9-4-1 in White Sox' last fourteen games.
•Red Sox-Athletics - 4:05 PM
--Lester is 3-1, 2.81 in his last four starts.
--Oakland won last six Milone starts (4-0, 2.95).
--Red Sox lost ten of their last twelve road games.
--Oakland won ten of its last twelve home games.
--Under is 12-1-1 in last fourteen Boston games.
•Rangers-Angels - 8:05 PM
--Darvish is 5-2, 2.75 in his last eight starts.
--Santiago is 0-4, 6.38 in his last five starts.
--Texas lost five of its last six games.
--Angels are 13-3 in their last sixteen home games.
--Five of last seven Santiago starts stayed under total.
Interleague
•Blue Jays-Reds - 1:10 PM
--Dickey is 1-1, 4.91 in his last four starts; he got pushed back today due to an upper leg injury.
--Cueto is 2-1, 2.22 in his last four starts.
--Toronto is 14-6 in its last twenty road games.
--Reds won seven of their last ten games.
--Six of eight Cueto home starts stayed under total.
•Umpires Trends
-- Phil-StL-- All five Campos games went over the total.
-- NY-Mia-- Six of last nine Hoberg games stayed under.
-- Mil-Col-- Road team won 12 of 14 Dimuro games.
-- Pitt-Chi-- Favorites won last nine Hoye games.
-- Atl-Wsh-- Last three Carlson games stayed under.
-- SF-Az-- Under is 5-1-2 in last eight HGibson games.
-- LA-SD-- All four Marquez games stayed under total.
-- Blt-NY-- Six of eight Woodring games went over total.
-- Chi-Min-- Home team won seven of last eight Reyburn games.
-- Sea-KC-- Seven of last ten Nelson games stayed under.
-- Bos-A's-- Four of last five GGibson games went over.
-- Hst-TB-- Visiting team won six of last seven Knight games.
-- Det-Clev-- Over is 3-1-1 in last five Morales games.
-- Tex-LAA-- Underdogs won five of last six Miller games.
-- Tor-Cin-- Underdogs won eight of last nine Foster games.
Diamond Trends - Sunday
•MINNESOTA is 2-12 (-16.7 Units) against the money line in home games off 2 consecutive one run wins over a division rival since 1997.
The average score was MINNESOTA 2.9, OPPONENT 6.4.
•BOSTON is 18-3 UNDER (+14.9 Units) after allowing 4 runs or less 3 straight games this season.
The average score was BOSTON 2.6, OPPONENT 3.7.
•MINNESOTA is 0-18 (-19.4 Units) against the run line in home games after 3 straight wins by 2 runs or less since 1997.
The average score was MINNESOTA 3.9, OPPONENT 7.0.
•JOHN DANKS is 0-13 (-13.3 Units) against the money line in road games after a loss over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was DANKS 2.4, OPPONENT 5.7.
•JON LESTER is 16-3 OVER (+13.1 Units) in road games after giving up <=1 earned runs in his last 2 outings since 1997.
The average score was LESTER 6.8, OPPONENT 4.6.
•CHRIS TILLMAN is 16-1 (+14.7 Units) against the run line in road games in the first half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was TILLMAN 6.8, OPPONENT 3.9.
Situation Analysis of The Day
•Play Against - All underdogs with a money line of +100 to +150 (PHILADELPHIA) - with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.250 to 1.350 on the season-NL, on a good fielding streak, 10 straight games with one or less errors, with a well rested bullpen - threw <= 1 inning in each of the last 2 games.
(39-7 over the last 5 seasons.) (84.8%, +29.5 units. Rating = 4*)
The average money line posted in these games was: Team favored with a money line of: -135
The average score in these games was: Team 5.4, Opponent 3.4 (Average run differential = +2)
The situation's record this season is: (2-2, -0.8 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (16-3, +12.1 units).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (106-63, +21.1 units).
•Play On - Road underdogs against a 1.5 run line. (Money Line =-190 to -135) (ATLANTA) - with a team batting average of .245 or worse on the season (National League) against opponent with a hot starting pitcher- ERA less than 3.00 over his last 10 games.
(68-15 since 1997.) (81.9%, +43.6 units. Rating = 4*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (39-44)
The average run line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 1.5, money line price: -163
The average score in these games was: Team 4.2, Opponent 3.6 (Average run differential = +0.6)
The number of games in which this system covered the run line by 1 or more runs was 39 (47% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (9-2, +5.9 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (31-8, +17.6 units).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (49-13, +28 units).
•Play Over - Home teams where the total is 7 to 8.5 (NY YANKEES) - terrible offensive team (<=4.2 runs/game) against a decent starting pitcher (ERA=4.20 to 4.70) - American League, with an average bullpen whose ERA is 3.75 to 4.50 on the season.
(46-17 since 1997.) (73.0%, +27.7 units. Rating = 3*)
The average total posted in these games was: 7.9, Money Line=-107.6
The average score in these games was: Team 4.9, Opponent 4.6 (Total runs scored = 9.5)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 1 or more runs was 36 (59% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (1-0, +1.2 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (11-1, +10.1 units).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (30-10, +19.3 units).
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