SPORTS WAGERS
Milwaukee +9½ over ATLANTA
This line suggests the Bucks are out done but so did the last line in Atlanta and so did the series price before this match-up got underway. What is true is that the Bucks played probably its worse game of the year in that closeout game in Milwaukee on Friday. They could not have played worse and the interesting thing is that the Hawks played like garbage too, especially in the first half but the Bucks were just worse. All the pressure now shifts on the Hawks and this is a team that does not respond well to pressure. Man for man, the Hawks are obviously much-more talented but it takes a lot more than talent to move on. This is a team that does not share the rock often, instead, individually, every player wants to be the hero. This line is also an insult to the Bucks and they’ll use it to motivate them even more. Not that they need more motivation but they’ve been resilient as hell all year long so don’t expect them to go down quietly here. Bucks were absolutely brutal in the last game and will very likely keep this ne scary close and may even pull the upset. Play: Milwaukee +9½ (Risking 2.16 units to win 2).
SAN DIEGO +1.00 over Milwaukee
Every year after the first month you'll see some flukes. On the player scale, and on the team scale. On this date last season, for example, the Blue Jays were 16-10, the Rockies were 10-15 and the Rays were 9-16. It wouldn't have taken a superior level of expertise for one to predict that those courses would reverse themselves over the remainder of the year. So it would be easy to look at the San Diego Padres' current record of 15-9 and write it off as insignificant. Just a minor statistical quirk that, come July, will be all but forgotten. That’s not to say the Padres are for real. They have a lot left to prove. But hey, if nothing else, they've earned the record they've put up. And they've earned it by scoring 107 runs and allowing 90, for a run differential of +17 that ranks in MLB's top ten. Last season, the Padres struggled to score, and they struggled to prevent. So far, against an unimpressive but by no means easy slate of opponents, they've managed to produce at a decent clip while posting the fourth-best ERA in the National League. The big keys? A shutdown bullpen and a talented defense while the Brewers have none of that. Randy Wolf got a win over Pittsburgh in his last start but not because he pitched well. The Pirates got 10 hits, stranded 14 runners and Wolf was pitching with a big lead. The Padres are 9-3 at home, the Brewers are 10-14 overall and when you consider everything that’s occurred in the first month, there’s no way Milwaukee should be favored. Play: San Diego +1.00 (Risking 2 units).
Pittsburgh +2.25 over LOS ANGELES
Jeff Karstens came up with a very surprising quality start last week when the Pirates needed it desperately. Pittsburgh had just lost eight in a row and was outscored by an incredible count of 55-12 when they called up Karstens to pitch the finale in Milwaukee. Karstens limited the Brewers to two runs on six hits in 6.2 innings and although he didn’t get the win the Pirates did and the team subsequently won the next two as well. Karstens is one of those guys that got his start in the AL and while he’s never had success, pitchers switching from the AL to the NL often do. He looked good vs the Brewers and perhaps he can duplicate that against the Dodgers. More than that however, is the tag we’re taking back against Hiroki Kuroda. Kuroda had an outstanding April but he also had an unsustainable 87% strand rate and this is just one game. We’ve seen a large amount of big dogs winning this year and wouldn’t be a bit surprised to see this one come through too. The Pirates have a ton of team speed and can make life miserable with it once they get on. This venue plays right into that, as hits and runs are hard to come by, thus, manufacturing runs can often be the difference between winning and losing. Play: Pittsburgh +2.25 (Risking 2 units).
Houston +1.62 over ATLANTA
The Braves are among the worst teams in the league in just about every category and while they won big yesterday, expect a lot less from them today. Over the last dozen games the Braves are hitting .239. They have numerous “easy outs” in their lineup, which gives the opposition a chance to pitch around anyone that’s a threat in scoring situation. Derek Lowe is a one-pitch pitcher and when his sinker isn’t working he’s useless. Lowe is now 36 years old and has a ton of miles on his pitching arm. He’s walking a lot of batters this year (16 in 28 frames) and that’s starting to become an issue. Lowe also comes in with an ERA near 6 and an unimpressive WHIP of 1.54. The Astros are below average in everything too, however, they’re not the one’s laying a ridiculous 8-5. Bud Norris is very capable of throwing a gem and against this line-up that’s a distinct possibility. In his only road start of the year in at St. Louis, Norris struck out nine Cards and did not allow a single run in five innings. The line-up he’ll face here is a very beatable one and the tag just adds to that great appeal. Play: Houston +1.62 (Risking 2 units).
TORONTO –1½ +1.46 over OAKLAND
Ben Sheets is a fraction of the pitcher he was when he pitched for the Brewers. He’s benefitted somewhat from throwing at pitcher-friendly Oakland but his two road starts tell the story of this guy’s troubles. In two road starts he’s allowed 19 hits and 11 runs in 10 frames. Sheets is no longer the strikeout guy he used to be either. He’s walked (14) as many batters this year and he’s struck out. His WHIP is an alarming 1.74 and his BAA on the road is .413. Furthermore, the A’s offense leaves plenty to be desired and they sure won’t have it easy here against the always reliable and usually dominant Shaun Marcum. Marcum does not have a win yet this year, which is a complete crime when you consider he’s pitched as well as anyone if the game. That fact should only motivate the Jays more here. He’s thrown seven full innings in four of his five starts and overall in 34 innings, he’s allowed just 27 hits, whiffed 28 while walking just seven batters. Every stat on this guy is Halliday-like, including his ability to induce ground balls. Marcum gets some justice today and the Jays should score plenty of Sheets. Play: Toronto –1½ +1.46 (Risking 2 units).
Texas +1.03 over SEATTLE
Doug Fister has outstanding numbers this year but a regression is inevitable, as this guy is truly about as average as they come. He’s a back-end starter that wasn’t even assured a spot in the rotation but do give him credit for being opportunistic. Thing is, he’s faced the A’s twice, the O’s once and the White Sox once and that quartet is at the bottom of every offensive category. The White Sox have since woken up but at the time they faced Fister they were still asleep. He’s also pitched twice at home and that has helped his numbers tremendously. C.J. Wilson's transition to the starting rotation has gone smoother than anyone could have expected. He's striking out nearly a batter per inning and consistently pitching deep into games. Unlike Fister, he’s faced some tough opposition. His four starts thus far have been againsty the Jays, Yanks, Red Sox and White Sox and he pitched well in all of them. In fact he’s allowed a total of just five runs in four starts and did not allow a run in two of those four starts. Furthermore, the Rangers are warming up with four wins in its last five and that includes the first two of this series. By contrast, the Mariners have dropped six of its last eight and really have no advantage at all. Play: Texas +1.03 (Risking 2 units).
Detroit +1.20 over SAN JOSE Pinnacle
Ok, the Sharks won the first game of this series but so what. They jumped out to a very quick 3-0 before the Red Wings woke up and outscored them 3-1 the rest of the way. San Jose also got a ridiculous break near the end of the second period when a zebra nailed Valterri Filppula for high sticking when in fact, he was the guy that was cut and got a stick in the face. That call set up a 5 on three and resulted in the Sharks scoring the winning goal. There’s not a team in the league more adept at winning a playoff game after losing the previous one. The Red Wings make all the right adjustments and again, the Sharks are just not playoff tough. There’s no chance of San Jose scoring three first period goals in the first 10 minutes and while they surely can win this game, the Red Wings offer up so much more value than the Sharks as a favorite. The +1.75 adjusted series price is very tempting but if the Sharks win, the series price will be large and we’ll step in then. Play: Detroit +1.20 (Risking 2 units).