SPORTS WAGERS
Memphis +292 over OK CITY Series
Line here dictates play. At this price the Grizzlies are an absolute must play because they have a great chance of beating the Thunder. Oklahoma City beat the Nuggets in five games but four of those games could have gone either way. The Thunder won three of the four games against Denver by four points or less and looked sloppy in doing so. They settled for low percentage and perimeter shots the whole series and should they employ that same strategy against the Grizzlies, they’ll get buried. The Grizzlies series win over the Spurs was not an aberration. Had it not been for a miracle finish by San Antonio in game five to send the contest to OT, Memphis would’ve disposed of them in five games. Color man Jeff Van Gundy, one of the best basketball observer’s, said this after Memphis closed out the Spurs, “ San Antonio didn’t play bad at all. They were beat by a hungrier, younger and more talented team that is not finished yet. The Grizzlies had an answer and mental resolve for everything the Spurs threw at them. The Thunder are immensely talented but it’s their decision making or lack thereof that we see as a big problem. Russell Westbrook is a great player but he’s not Kevin Durant and he always wants to make the big play for some reason. Westbrook constantly makes bad decisions and the Thunder will pay. Memphis can shoot, they can defend, they’re great rebounders and they have a superstar or two in Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol. Lastly, the Grizz beat Ok City three out of four times in the regular season and know they can beat this team. Huge overlay. Play: Memphis +292 (Risking 2 units).
Tampa Bay +167 over Washington
How can you not play the Lightning here? Here’s a team that was down 3-1 to the Pens and rallied with near flawless performances to knock them off. Not done yet, the Bolts went into Washington and beat the Caps 4-2 in game one and that’s after falling behind 2-1. They’ll come into this one with no pressure whatsoever and they’ll likely be even better this game. The Caps are under a lot of pressure to win this game. Bruce Boudreau never makes the right adjustments and playoff ghosts from previous years are lurking big time. The Caps played a strong game one, especially in the first two periods and still lost. One has to wonder how that loss will affect them. This is a Washington team that is playoff fragile and should the Bolts get off to a good start and take a lead, things will instantly get tougher. Of course the Caps can win this game but it’s not going to be easy and with a big take-back, the Lightning offer up some outstanding value in a game, they, too, can surely win. Play: Tampa Bay +167 (Risking 2 units).
St. Louis +100 over ATLANTA
The Cardinals are hot with four wins in a row and they also lead the majors with a road BA of .317, which is 20 points higher than the 2nd place Angels. They’ve scored an incredible 103 runs on the road in 15 games and the next best total is Atlanta’s 76 road runs in 17 games. Jaime Garcia is one of the better young pitchers in the game. He posted a 2.70 ERA and 1.32 WHIP last season, along with an elite 56% GB%. This year his groundball rate is even higher at 60%. In 30.1 innings he’s struck out 30 and walked just nine. Garcia has a 2.08 ERA and 1.15 WHIP, he’s allowed just one jack all year and he faces a Braves club that has not fared well against LHPs thus far in 2011. In fact, Atlanta is batting just .206 vs southpaws and they have an embarrassing OPS of .581, which is second worst in the majors. Derek Lowe needs no introduction. He’s been around forever and he possesses one of the best sliders this league has ever seen. However, age says he can’t do it much longer and on days when his slider isn’t biting he has no chance for success. Lowe is also pitching today for the first time since his publicized DUI arrest. The Cardinals own him too. He hasn’t beaten St. Louis in four years and has just one win in his career against them. Lowe is 1-7 with a 6.85 ERA lifetime against the Cardinals and is pitching today under heavy scrutiny. Cards come in relaxed and looking for the sweep. Play: St. Louis +100 (Risking 2 units).
