Joe Gavazzi
NBA
Toronto Raptors (-6-) at Detroit Pistons 3:35 ET
3% Toronto Raptors (-6-)
Detroit tossed the towel when Mocheeks was fired as head coach. Detroit enters today on an 8-22 SU slide having allowed 108 PPG including 113 PPG in their last 5 games. Key contributors Smith and Bynum are expected to miss this game. Far prefer Toronto who has dominated Detroit in previous matchups this season with wins of 101-87 and 112-91. Since the trade of Rudy Gay, Toronto has gone 39-20 SU, 38-21 ATS. A Friday night home loss sets up a situation which finds the Raptors to be 21-10 ATS following a defeat. Toronto has also been one of the best road teams in the NBA with a record of 25-14 ATS away. Play the Super Surger vs Towel Tosser in this double digit victory.
NBA
Toronto Raptors (-6-) at Detroit Pistons 3:35 ET
3% Toronto Raptors (-6-)
Detroit tossed the towel when Mocheeks was fired as head coach. Detroit enters today on an 8-22 SU slide having allowed 108 PPG including 113 PPG in their last 5 games. Key contributors Smith and Bynum are expected to miss this game. Far prefer Toronto who has dominated Detroit in previous matchups this season with wins of 101-87 and 112-91. Since the trade of Rudy Gay, Toronto has gone 39-20 SU, 38-21 ATS. A Friday night home loss sets up a situation which finds the Raptors to be 21-10 ATS following a defeat. Toronto has also been one of the best road teams in the NBA with a record of 25-14 ATS away. Play the Super Surger vs Towel Tosser in this double digit victory.
Gavazzi MLB
Sunday, April 13th
MLB
Colorado (Chatwood) at San Francisco (Hudson) (-150) 4:05 ET
3% San Francisco (Hudson) (-150)
The Rockies continue with a home/road dichotomy that has characterized them in recent years. Though 6-6 for the season, Colorado is 4-2 at Coors while 2-4 on the road. That includes a 1-0 victory on this field yesterday. But in the last two seasons, the Rockies are just 7-21 away following a victory. Eager to fade 1st time starter Chatwood who is coming off the DL with a hamstring injury. For San Francisco, Hudson has been reborn in his return to the Bay Area. Following 2 starts, Hudson is 2-0 with a 1.15 ERA, 11/0 KBB. This runs his recent record to 6-0 with a 2.42 ERA. FFG bounces back behind the hot starter.
LA Dodgers (Haren) (-115) at Arizona (Cahill) 4:10 ET
4% LA Dodgers (Haren) (-115)
Pure momentum play on both teams and starters. With the Dodgers 8-5 victory yesterday, they have now beaten Arizona 4 straight times this year outscoring the DBacks 24-11. LA key starters have allowed just 2 runs with a 28/3 KBB. This extends recent Dodgers series dominance to 11-3 including 7-2 at this site. Cahill was a victim of one of those LAD wins when he allowed 5 runs on 8 hits in a 7-5 Dodger victory in Australia. That poor outing is just 1 of 3 for Cahill who from this mound this season is 0-2 with a 6.30 ERA and .324 BAA. It all adds up to a 0-3 season with a 7.90 ERA. No such problems for Haren who in 2 starts has a 0.75 ERA with a 10/1 KBB.
Toronto (Buehrle) at Baltimore (Jimenez) (-110) 1:35 ET
3% Toronto (Buehrle) EVEN
I really don’t get it. In 2010 while pitching for Colorado, a brilliant 1st half resulted in a 2.88 ERA for Jimenez. In 4 seasons since that time, he has authored seasons with a 4.46 ERA or higher. Yet Baltimore this spring signed him to a 4 year $50 million dollar contract. For their reward, the Birds have seen Jimenez begin 0-2 with a 6.75 ERA. Though neither pitcher has a strong history against the opposition, Buehrle is off to a far stronger spot with a record of 2-0, 0.64 ERA and 14/2 KBB. No brainer using the current form of this pitching dichotomy.
Kansas City (Vargas) (-120) at Minnesota (Correia) 2:10 ET
4% Kansas City (Vargas) (-120)
The Twins have outscored the Royals by a combined 17-2 Friday and Saturday. That is a bit head scratching considering the Royals were 15-4 against them last year. Before you line up for the home dog sweep, consider that the Royals have not been swept by the Twins since June of 2011. Consider also that in those recent 3 years, the Twins are 98-148 on this field including 38-75 as home dog. Correia has a poor history against the Royals with a 5.29 ERA, .331 BAA in 6 starts. Out of the gate this season, Correia has pitched 11 2/3 IP allowing 17 BR for a 6.17 ERA. That is pure Play Against material. Vargas, conversely, has twirled 15 IP with a 1.20 ERA and 8/2 KBB. Royals bounce back behind the current form of Vargas.
Oakland (Kazmir) (-125) at Seattle (Young) 4:10 ET
4% Oakland (Kazmir) (-125)
Oakland’s starters have been superb this season allowing 3 or less runs in 10/11 games with starters going 6+ innings in 9/11 games. The 7-4 start (4-1 away) is reminiscent of the fact that the 190 Oakland victories the last two seasons is the best in the American League. Oakland is 5-1 recently with the only loss to red hot King Felix Friday night. After a hot start to the season against LAA, Seattle has scored just 20 runs with a .202 BA in their last 7. Young makes his 1st start since 2012. In that season, he pitched for the Mets. In 20 games, Young was 4-9 with a 4.15 ERA before being shelved by arm injuries. Yet he was far from the form of previous seasons where in 2010 and 2011 Young had a sub 2.00 ERA and a .145 BAA. On a 90 pitch limit, Young will have to prove it until he gets our money. Kazmir is off to a solid start winning both games with a 2.03 ERA.
NY Mets (Colon) at LA Angels (Wilson) (-150) 3:30 ET
3% NY Mets (Colon)
I will call this our pitching dog of the day. Never easy to fade Wilson who recorded 17 wins last year with a 3.39 ERA. His most recent start provided a return to form. In a 9-2 victory vs Houston, Wilson allowed just 1 run in 8 IP. His prior start at this mound, however, was a disaster. Wilson lasted just 5 2/3 IP in an 8-3 loss to Seattle where he allowed 6 runs on 8 hits. Now he must face former Angel, Colon, who is off to a hot start and has a strong history. Since being traded by the Halos, Colon has made 9 starts against them with a record of 6-1 and 1.75 ERA. More recently, that record is 3-0 with an 0.82 ERA. No reason to think that does not continue based on his current form. After 2 starts, Colon has a 2.08 ERA with 9/0 KBB. His most recent start was a 4-0 shutout of Atlanta in which he pitched 7 innings allowing just 6 hits. With the Mets 3-2 away and the underachieving Angels 1-4 at home, we will take a Big Dog play on the hot starter.
Sunday, April 13th
MLB
Colorado (Chatwood) at San Francisco (Hudson) (-150) 4:05 ET
3% San Francisco (Hudson) (-150)
The Rockies continue with a home/road dichotomy that has characterized them in recent years. Though 6-6 for the season, Colorado is 4-2 at Coors while 2-4 on the road. That includes a 1-0 victory on this field yesterday. But in the last two seasons, the Rockies are just 7-21 away following a victory. Eager to fade 1st time starter Chatwood who is coming off the DL with a hamstring injury. For San Francisco, Hudson has been reborn in his return to the Bay Area. Following 2 starts, Hudson is 2-0 with a 1.15 ERA, 11/0 KBB. This runs his recent record to 6-0 with a 2.42 ERA. FFG bounces back behind the hot starter.
LA Dodgers (Haren) (-115) at Arizona (Cahill) 4:10 ET
4% LA Dodgers (Haren) (-115)
Pure momentum play on both teams and starters. With the Dodgers 8-5 victory yesterday, they have now beaten Arizona 4 straight times this year outscoring the DBacks 24-11. LA key starters have allowed just 2 runs with a 28/3 KBB. This extends recent Dodgers series dominance to 11-3 including 7-2 at this site. Cahill was a victim of one of those LAD wins when he allowed 5 runs on 8 hits in a 7-5 Dodger victory in Australia. That poor outing is just 1 of 3 for Cahill who from this mound this season is 0-2 with a 6.30 ERA and .324 BAA. It all adds up to a 0-3 season with a 7.90 ERA. No such problems for Haren who in 2 starts has a 0.75 ERA with a 10/1 KBB.
Toronto (Buehrle) at Baltimore (Jimenez) (-110) 1:35 ET
3% Toronto (Buehrle) EVEN
I really don’t get it. In 2010 while pitching for Colorado, a brilliant 1st half resulted in a 2.88 ERA for Jimenez. In 4 seasons since that time, he has authored seasons with a 4.46 ERA or higher. Yet Baltimore this spring signed him to a 4 year $50 million dollar contract. For their reward, the Birds have seen Jimenez begin 0-2 with a 6.75 ERA. Though neither pitcher has a strong history against the opposition, Buehrle is off to a far stronger spot with a record of 2-0, 0.64 ERA and 14/2 KBB. No brainer using the current form of this pitching dichotomy.
Kansas City (Vargas) (-120) at Minnesota (Correia) 2:10 ET
4% Kansas City (Vargas) (-120)
The Twins have outscored the Royals by a combined 17-2 Friday and Saturday. That is a bit head scratching considering the Royals were 15-4 against them last year. Before you line up for the home dog sweep, consider that the Royals have not been swept by the Twins since June of 2011. Consider also that in those recent 3 years, the Twins are 98-148 on this field including 38-75 as home dog. Correia has a poor history against the Royals with a 5.29 ERA, .331 BAA in 6 starts. Out of the gate this season, Correia has pitched 11 2/3 IP allowing 17 BR for a 6.17 ERA. That is pure Play Against material. Vargas, conversely, has twirled 15 IP with a 1.20 ERA and 8/2 KBB. Royals bounce back behind the current form of Vargas.
Oakland (Kazmir) (-125) at Seattle (Young) 4:10 ET
4% Oakland (Kazmir) (-125)
Oakland’s starters have been superb this season allowing 3 or less runs in 10/11 games with starters going 6+ innings in 9/11 games. The 7-4 start (4-1 away) is reminiscent of the fact that the 190 Oakland victories the last two seasons is the best in the American League. Oakland is 5-1 recently with the only loss to red hot King Felix Friday night. After a hot start to the season against LAA, Seattle has scored just 20 runs with a .202 BA in their last 7. Young makes his 1st start since 2012. In that season, he pitched for the Mets. In 20 games, Young was 4-9 with a 4.15 ERA before being shelved by arm injuries. Yet he was far from the form of previous seasons where in 2010 and 2011 Young had a sub 2.00 ERA and a .145 BAA. On a 90 pitch limit, Young will have to prove it until he gets our money. Kazmir is off to a solid start winning both games with a 2.03 ERA.
NY Mets (Colon) at LA Angels (Wilson) (-150) 3:30 ET
3% NY Mets (Colon)
I will call this our pitching dog of the day. Never easy to fade Wilson who recorded 17 wins last year with a 3.39 ERA. His most recent start provided a return to form. In a 9-2 victory vs Houston, Wilson allowed just 1 run in 8 IP. His prior start at this mound, however, was a disaster. Wilson lasted just 5 2/3 IP in an 8-3 loss to Seattle where he allowed 6 runs on 8 hits. Now he must face former Angel, Colon, who is off to a hot start and has a strong history. Since being traded by the Halos, Colon has made 9 starts against them with a record of 6-1 and 1.75 ERA. More recently, that record is 3-0 with an 0.82 ERA. No reason to think that does not continue based on his current form. After 2 starts, Colon has a 2.08 ERA with 9/0 KBB. His most recent start was a 4-0 shutout of Atlanta in which he pitched 7 innings allowing just 6 hits. With the Mets 3-2 away and the underachieving Angels 1-4 at home, we will take a Big Dog play on the hot starter.
Bryan Leonard | MLB RunLine Sun, 04/13/14 - 4:10 PM
triple-dime bet 979 DET -1.5 (+120) Hilton vs 980 SDP
Analysis:
979 Detroit at San Diego
The Tigers and Padres wrap up their weekend interleague set with a Sunday matinee game on the west coast between Max Scherzer and Tyson Ross. Scherzer's started his contract year off with a bang, allowing just two runs and 14 baserunners over 15 innings with 15 strikeouts. He's faced two quality lineups with the Royals and the Dodgers, even though the Royals have had their struggles in the early season. Now he draws a Padres lineup that has yet to find its stride and is unlikely to do so against Scherzer.
The Padres entered action on Saturday night with the sixth-highest chase rate in all of baseball. As a result, they were tied for the third-highest swing and miss percentage. The biggest flaw in Scherzer's profile is the occasional home run, which Petco Park, even during the day, should help suppress. Not to mention, the Padres entered play on Saturday with just five home runs as a team. This lineup is a great matchup for Scherzer.
On the other side, this matchup looks really bad for Tyson Ross. Ross *only* allowed two earned runs against the Indians, but he allowed seven overall and walked five in 5.1 innings of work. The most concerning things weren't his stats, but rather the PITCHf/x data after the start. Ross, who has been injured a lot in his MLB career, is showing a serious drop in velocity. His average fastball velocity values are even lower than his early 2013 values when he spent time on the disabled list with shoulder discomfort. Ross is only throwing 44 percent first-pitch strikes through two starts and isn't getting swings and misses.
Also of interest, Ross varied his release point throughout the start against the Indians. Not only did this affect his control, which is usually his strong suit, but it likely altered his mechanics enough to hurt his velocity. Whether Ross is hurt or is experimenting, the Tigers aren't exactly the lineup to be facing under suboptimal conditions. His velocity also trailed off towards the end of his start. All of these are discouraging signs for his health and effectiveness.
With Scherzer going for the Tigers against an offense that's simply not performing and Ross going against a Tigers lineup that is one of the better ones in baseball, this looks like a very bad spot for the Padres and a spot where they could take a real beating.
PLAY: DETROIT -1.5
triple-dime bet 979 DET -1.5 (+120) Hilton vs 980 SDP
Analysis:
979 Detroit at San Diego
The Tigers and Padres wrap up their weekend interleague set with a Sunday matinee game on the west coast between Max Scherzer and Tyson Ross. Scherzer's started his contract year off with a bang, allowing just two runs and 14 baserunners over 15 innings with 15 strikeouts. He's faced two quality lineups with the Royals and the Dodgers, even though the Royals have had their struggles in the early season. Now he draws a Padres lineup that has yet to find its stride and is unlikely to do so against Scherzer.
The Padres entered action on Saturday night with the sixth-highest chase rate in all of baseball. As a result, they were tied for the third-highest swing and miss percentage. The biggest flaw in Scherzer's profile is the occasional home run, which Petco Park, even during the day, should help suppress. Not to mention, the Padres entered play on Saturday with just five home runs as a team. This lineup is a great matchup for Scherzer.
On the other side, this matchup looks really bad for Tyson Ross. Ross *only* allowed two earned runs against the Indians, but he allowed seven overall and walked five in 5.1 innings of work. The most concerning things weren't his stats, but rather the PITCHf/x data after the start. Ross, who has been injured a lot in his MLB career, is showing a serious drop in velocity. His average fastball velocity values are even lower than his early 2013 values when he spent time on the disabled list with shoulder discomfort. Ross is only throwing 44 percent first-pitch strikes through two starts and isn't getting swings and misses.
Also of interest, Ross varied his release point throughout the start against the Indians. Not only did this affect his control, which is usually his strong suit, but it likely altered his mechanics enough to hurt his velocity. Whether Ross is hurt or is experimenting, the Tigers aren't exactly the lineup to be facing under suboptimal conditions. His velocity also trailed off towards the end of his start. All of these are discouraging signs for his health and effectiveness.
With Scherzer going for the Tigers against an offense that's simply not performing and Ross going against a Tigers lineup that is one of the better ones in baseball, this looks like a very bad spot for the Padres and a spot where they could take a real beating.
PLAY: DETROIT -1.5
